Israel: to be or not to be?
I. American intelligence: Israel has 13 years leftOn the rising wave of various rumors about who will win (or lose) in the coming war between Israel and Iran, other rumors have resumed: about the imminent and inevitable end of Israel.
The Middle East Department of the United States Intelligence Service conducted a special study, the data of which were made public. In this study it is saidthat the state of Israel will cease to exist as early as 2025.
Analyst Hussein Al-Berbury of the American newspaper Watan, who studied these studies, makes a conclusionthat the process of the exodus of the Israelites with historical homeland and return to their former habitat - is irreversible. He writes, citing a document, that “over half a million Fallash and other African Jews intend to return to the Black Continent in the next ten years. More than a million Russians and tens of thousands of Europeans are ready for re-emigration. ”
Among the reasons for the total re-emigration of Jews in the mentioned study are: the rise of the nationalist wave in the countries neighboring Israel; the rise of Islamism in Egypt; traction residents of Israel to their native places. Indicators of the fact that Jews are not well in Israel are the following factors for the authors of the document: insignificant population growth rates, “not comparable with the demographic explosion on Palestinian lands”; half a million Israelis live with American passports; few people are already attracted by the idea of "the purity of the Jewish race, on which Israel was built," so many Jews "prefer to go to multi-religious countries with a mixed national composition of the population."
In support of his thoughts, Hussein al-Berberi quotes A. Toynbee, who wrote almost half a century ago: “Despite the victory, Israel will not last long. An anomalous, alien community ... A tiny state on foreign lands, rejecting it. As well as numerous peoples living around him. ”
However, the journalist says, "neither the Arab land, nor the Middle East did not reject the Israelis: they rejected themselves, prompting the Arab region and the world outside to unite together today or tomorrow to oust the Jewish state."
“And if it disappears from the face of the earth,” the analyst adds, “it’s not the Arab world that will be guilty of this, but the state of Israel itself.”
Ii. Israel will kill the "Arab Spring"
A year earlier, Comrade Al-Berbury, with a forecast of the near end of Israel, was made by the famous Jewish historian Benny Morris. Unlike al-Berbury, he believes that Israel will fall from the Islamic invasion - both external and internal. The historian, in contrast to attentive to details of American intelligence, did not name the exact date of the fall of the state.
B. Morris is not an ordinary alarmist with whom the multinational Internet is now densely populated. This man gathered all the current threats to the existence of Israel, and collected, summarized. And he did it in September 2011, when the top Israeli government was not going to go to war with Iran (which, in addition to the Arabic danger, must also mean Persian).
Israel, according to Morris, is attacked from everywhere: the Palestinian Authority is ready to proclaim its state; Arab-Muslim countries continue to threaten a Jewish country; in Israel, more than ever, strong internal mass protests.
"Over 50 years ago, Israeli leaders led by David Ben-Gurion believed and hoped that they would create a social democratic state with all the attributes of equality, - notes comrade morris. - But Israel is not the same. A deep internal existential crisis has begun. Its origins are partly in the changing nature of a state that has become more right, more rigid, much less liberal, much less egalitarian. Many moderate Israelis fear that the country is heading for a crash. Indeed, the ruling class, including Benjamin Netanyahu and his predecessors Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak, live in luxury, and it seems that they have become detached from reality. ” At the same time, the historian points out, one-fifth of Israelis live below the poverty line, and the indicator of income differentiation in Israel is one of the worst among OECD members. In addition, Morris writes about the "brain drain." (As we see, it is characteristic not only for Russia).
Another problem, the historian continues, is the Israeli Arab minority. It is increasingly demonstrating adherence to Islam and is increasingly loudly demanding that Israel cease to be a Jewish state and grant more rights, and even autonomy to the Arabs.
Israeli democracy, according to B. Morris, is now in a deep crisis: it seems to be a democracy for the citizens of Israel, but, only it comes to 2,5 million Arabs in the half-occupied West Bank and 1,5 million Arabs in the Gaza Strip living in conditions of the semi-suburb, Israel immediately ceases to be a democracy.
And then there's the threat of the “Arab Spring”. According to the historian, this “spring” is not at all a herald of democratic change. Israelis are pessimistic about her. After all, Islamist signals emanating from Ankara and coming to the fore in Cairo, Morris writes, "contain the core of anti-Zionism, usually accompanied by anti-Semitic overtones."
According to the historian, the bureaucratic means of dealing with the economic problems of the country, which Netanyahu invents, will become drowned in the tide of Palestinian activity and anti-Zionism, which will arise in the wake of the proclamation of a Palestinian state, giving rise to echoes throughout the Arab-Muslim world.
Interestingly, Ehud Barak in the same year 2011 predicted a “political tsunami” for Israel. “And here it is,” Morris announces.
Iii. The road to two disasters: political and economic
Analysts and journalists singled out both political and economic among the internal causes of the speedy end of Israel.
Jews does not count The Israeli government is the personification of democracy, including in the geopolitical field: “The rules of the game between Israel and the rest of the world have changed. Today, the war is for awareness, and we are losing it. If Gunter Grass, the German winner of the Nobel Prize in literature, who published a poem at the beginning of April critical of Israel, wanted to visit Israel, would the government really keep him out of the country? According to Interior Minister Eli Yishai, yes. Yishai Grasse declared persona non grata. Is it forbidden for a person to express a negative opinion about us? Do we live under a dictatorship? Maybe it's time to start burning books? ”
Sustained rumors that Prime Minister Netanyahu, in collaboration with Ehud Barak, will dictate and implement the program of the military operation against Iran quite dictatorially, very much resemble the truth. Blaming Ahmadinejad, Netanyahu relies on the fictitious inevitability of atomic war from the ayatollahs, Israel’s preparation for the bombing of Iran in the fall, Israel’s sociological polls and other propaganda that is very similar to the one that allowed George W. Bush to launch the flywheel of the Iraq war.
In the Jewish press writethat Netanyahu is afraid of himself and therefore scares others, but it seems that a politician of such a rank will not easily be intimidated. No, he is not afraid: he teaches fellow citizens to think about a war with Iran. To loss, to blood, to the war of sirens, to explosions, to pain and death. Netanyahu, with his statements instantly propagated through the Israeli, American, European, Iranian and Arab press, is a powerful source of propaganda. And Netanyahu plus Ehud Barak (Israel’s defense minister who agrees with Netanyahu’s policies, unlike many other military and nonmilitary high-ranking officials) are two powerful sources of propaganda.
However, judging by the Jewish press, Israel was poorly prepared for the big war.
From the post of Minister of Defense of the rear shipped to the post of ambassador to China Matan Vilnai. He was replaced by Abraham Dichter, the former head of the Israeli security service, Shin Bet. Vilna was probably transferred because of his disapproval of Netanyahu’s and Barak’s policies. Indeed, in an interview with Reuters, he refused to answer the question about the need to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities. “I don’t need to drag me into these disputes,” сказал nevertheless, he noted that Israel must take into account the opinion of the United States - “the best friend of our country”.
Another reason for the resignation of a major official can be considered lack of war preparedness for the war: “The last alarming news from the "rear" fronts, allow us to conclude that the rear of the war is not ready. " 40% of the population has no gas masks. In shelters - non-compliance with standards, lack of necessary funds. "Now citizens are a little more active than in previous months", - says Eitan Arkobi, project manager for the distribution of protective kits through the Israel Post Office. According to him, 4,24 has already distributed a million chemical protection kits, there are still about 0,5 million, which will be distributed by March 2013. "After that, you will have to wait until the Defense Ministry gives another three million budget." That is, if Israel is subjected to rocket fire right now, 40% of the population will not have gas masks. Further, a third of Israelis do not have an apartment in a protected space or public shelter to shelter from a rocket attack. Many shelters available to citizens do not meet the standards of protection. According to a survey conducted for the publication Maariv, it turned out that 56% of Israelis believe that the rear is not ready for a possible war.
But Ahmadinejad is ready for it, who will have nothing to lose in case of an Israeli attack. Speaking at Ramadan, President of Iran сказал: "Who loves freedom and justice, should strive for the destruction of the Zionist regime in order to pave the way for justice and freedom."
To the opponents of the military operation against Iran in Israel today are ranked: Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, Air Force Commander Amir Eshel, Director of Foreign Intelligence Mossad Tamir Pardo, Head of Military Intelligence AMAN Aviv Kochavi and even President Shimon Peres.
Meir Dagan, in the past the head of the Mossad, also belongs to the “internal opposition” in the country. He warns: a military scenario applied to Iran can be very costly for Israel, resulting in a full-scale regional war, the results of which are unpredictable. Starting Iran’s “military whipping” right call "The silliest thought among all the others in this context."
Former head of the Israeli General Security Service Shabak Yuval Diskin also speaks out against the military operation. He openly declared his distrust of Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu and Barak (who, before the post of minister of war, managed to change the chairs of the Minister of Agriculture, Minister of Education, Minister of Tourism, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Internal Affairs and Prime Minister - such a multi-year manager) bend their line, losing the remnants of popularity population.
In addition to the awkward politics in the Jewish state, all is not well with the economy, which gives observers and analysts an additional reason to talk about the “end”.
Prices of basic foodstuffs, according to the Israeli Ministry of Agriculture, in the near future will grow significantly. Until the end of 2012, due to the rise in price of pet food (due to drought in the USA), the prices for milk, eggs, fowl will rise by 6-17%. This will immediately affect the feed industry in Israel: prices for raw materials for its enterprises may jump on 40, or even 50%. The consequence will be an instant increase in the price of milk on 10-13%, on poultry meat - on 10-14%, on eggs - on 14-17%.
In the autumn gasoline prices will rise - crossed the mark in 8 shekels per liter. Among the reasons for the increase in prices is called among others, and an increase in 1 ppt. VAT in Israel (from September 2012).
Rise in autumn also vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers, zucchini). Raised by the government the price of bread. Beer, cigarettes rose in July.
Very high in israel share of the shadow economy:
“By its very nature, the shadow economy cannot boast of official data. However, data are published based on ratings. According to a study published by the World Bank in 2010, the size of the shadow economy in Israel is 23% of GDP, 190 billion shekels. Much more than in countries such as Germany (17%), United Kingdom (13%), Japan (12%) and the United States (9%). Israel is in a bad position compared to Western countries: it is on the 23 site from the OECD 31 countries. European countries currently experiencing an economic crisis, like Greece and Italy, are ranked behind Israel on this list.
Moreover, the share of the shadow economy in GDP is growing in Israel faster than in other OECD countries. It grew 8,5% per decade from 1997 to 2007 a year, compared with an average increase of 6% in other countries. Part of the shadow economy, and not the most significant one, is connected with criminal activities in areas such as drugs, prostitution and gambling, but most of them are due to the behavior of law-abiding citizens. ”
The Israeli authorities are struggling with unkind means of raising tax rates since September — income tax and VAT — and stricter measures to combat defaulters. The tax authority announced the recruitment of 700 new employees, including students, who will have to spend evenings in the tax office. These evening workers are called upon to strengthen control over “black capital” and increase tax collection.
Of course, such measures of popularity are not added to the Netanyahu government.
Iv. "Scapegoats"?
Dina Lisnyanskaya, an Israeli, an expert in Arabic language and a specialist in Islamic extremism, believes that US President Barack Obama made a scapegoat from Israel.
American funds according to Lisnyanskayago today to the Islamists. Doesn't Obama know who the Muslim Brotherhood are? .. Lisnyanskaya reminds us that during the visit of the American President to Cairo, during his speech the representatives of the Brothers were demonstratively planted in the first row. In this way, the President of the United States encouraged the opposition, which spoke against Mubarak a couple of years ago. Obama’s policy is to reconcile America and Islam after the 2001 events of the year and Bush’s junior actions. On the other hand, according to Lisnyanskaya, Obama can stop the war with radical Islam so much that he will forget about other US interests.
In this case, Israel will be the "beat card" for the White House. “We are scapegoats for Barack Obama,” says Dina Lisnyanskaya. - It has long been understood politically. The problem is that for reconciliation with Islam, Barack Obama appeals to radical Islamists. And they were initially opposed to "American imperialism." For America in the Middle East, this is not necessarily the way to the abyss. But such a course of the US president is not particularly far-sighted. Yes, America’s reconciliation with Islam is possible, but it will change the whole balance in the Middle East. In fact, this has already changed the balance: the so-called “Arab Spring” is the result of Obama’s policy in our region. What did he achieve? Dictators are falling, but they are being democratically replaced by the Islamists. ”
The idea of Lisnyanskaya is easy to continue: the Islamists who came to power will come to Israel.
However, not everything is so bad for Israel: “the best friend” (in the words of Matan Vilnai) suddenly seemed to give the answer to Dina Lisnyanskaya. 14 August Barack Obama, according to the Israeli TV 10 channel, on behalf of America, promised to attack Iran in June 2013 of the year - unless obstinate Tehran did not stop its nuclear program by that time.
Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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