Military Review

In the United States, talk about the optimal strategy of Russia to control the Black Sea

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In the United States, talk about the optimal strategy of Russia to control the Black Sea

The optimal strategy of Russia in the Black Sea region is the principle: "Divide and conquer". Only by adhering to this strategy will Moscow be able to maintain control over the Black Sea. The American edition of Forbes writes about it.


The American research center RAND (RAND Corporation) has held another war game, the results of which have confirmed that the "divide and rule" strategy is optimal for Russia in the Black Sea region. Simulations conducted back in 2018 were supposed to show the most likely Russian strategy and NATO response in the Black Sea.

The exercises showed that the best strategy for Russia would be a divide and conquer tactic that would help prevent the creation of a coalition that could challenge Russian dominance in the Black Sea. It is easier for Russia to achieve its goal of splitting the region than it is for the United States to unite it

- said the Center.

In recent years, Russia has established dominance over the Black Sea, displacing other countries and taking Crimea from Ukraine. According to Forbes, Moscow considers the Black Sea to be its fiefdom, therefore it is taking steps to prevent NATO ships and vessels from there. At the same time, Moscow understands that the situation is becoming threatening, NATO experts call for the creation of a permanent grouping of the alliance in the Black Sea.

In the scenario of the game, which was prepared by RAND, different teams act as the Black Sea states and the United States. According to the scenario, the action takes place in the period from 2020 to 2025, NATO is trying to expand its naval presence in the Black Sea, Romania is strengthening ties with Moldova. In response, Russia is aggressively expanding its exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea, conducting cyberattacks against Romania. Tensions peaked when a Russian Su-24 attack aircraft lowers over a US destroyer and hits the ship, killing several sailors.

The game allowed each of the teams to choose different options and follow them. These are economic incentives, attempts to persuade potential friends, cyberwar, sending troops, exercises and measures to intimidate the enemy.

While playing out the game scenario, the US team could not win, but the team playing for Russia could not win either. However, using a rich arsenal of means, "Russia" was able to find an approach to the Black Sea states and withdraw some of them from the confrontation. Using the divide-and-rule principle, Moscow achieved a partial victory.

Romania, Ukraine and Georgia did not succumb to Russian pressure. But Turkey and Bulgaria failed: they refused to participate in the NATO flotilla on the Black Sea, thanks to which Russia achieved a partial victory

- took the results of the game in the Center.

The publication noted that the war game was carried out by Western experts with "Western" views on the possible retaliatory actions of Russia, nevertheless, it clearly showed that it is easier to fight the coalition, rather than participate in it.

The exercise clearly demonstrated the extent to which Russia's targeted use of non-military sources of power and influence can eliminate the need to run the risk of open military conflict with NATO. The game shows that it is much easier for Russia to undermine regional unity and resolve to give a unified rebuff to Russian plans than it is for coalitions to form and maintain such unity.

- concluded the RAND experts.
50 comments
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  1. Mouse
    Mouse 10 December 2020 15: 59
    +4
    The game testifies ...

    Everyone is playing with toys completely from the realities of life ...
    1. alexmach
      alexmach 10 December 2020 16: 11
      +4
      But, but. Rand is a very serious structure, private intelligence in essence. This is not a newspaper.
      1. Mouse
        Mouse 10 December 2020 16: 18
        +10
        We sometimes cannot calculate ourselves, what can we say about some kind of structure? Let it be serious ... wink
        1. cniza
          cniza 10 December 2020 16: 31
          +6
          Quote: Mouse
          Sometimes we cannot calculate ourselves


          This is all our charm and bad for them. lol
        2. alexmach
          alexmach 10 December 2020 16: 44
          +3
          Sometimes we cannot calculate ourselves

          How do you know? We have to deal with this in general closed structures, but here they just slightly revealed the ways in which they work. And if they cannot calculate, then things are very, very bad.
        3. Doctor
          Doctor 10 December 2020 16: 46
          +4
          We sometimes cannot calculate ourselves, what can we say about some kind of structure? Even serious ... wink

          Nevertheless, it is interesting to see their views on various options for weakening Russia.

          https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
          1. alexmach
            alexmach 10 December 2020 17: 08
            +1
            Class.
            Fluently flipped through, the tablets are very interesting, it would be necessary to read thoughtfully.
          2. Lipchanin
            Lipchanin 10 December 2020 17: 16
            +4
            Quote: Arzt
            Nevertheless, it's interesting to see their views.

            1. Doctor
              Doctor 10 December 2020 17: 39
              +1
              In response to the Chinese. laughing

              Too lazy to translate in detail, so with Google it is rough according to the schemes.

              Where there is a likelihood of success in expanding Russia, they naturally mean their expansion and our success in this area.

              Economy:



              Geopolitics:
              "Lethal" aid to Ukraine is the delivery of lethal weapons.





              Ideology and information warfare:



              Aviation and space 1.
              "Reconfigured" bombers are
              deployment of bombers in the easy engagement zone of key Russian strategic targets
              "Repost of fighters" - redeployment of fighters so that they are closer to their targets than bombers, as a way to achieve higher sorties.



              Aviation and space 2.

              1. Doctor
                Doctor 10 December 2020 17: 45
                +1
                Continuing answer to Chinese:

                Sea:



                "Check the Black Sea build-up" - To contain the build-up in the Black Sea, an enhanced system of preventing and denying access to the area over the Black Sea of ​​the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) - possibly in the form of land-based long-range anti-ship missiles - must be deployed the cost of defending Russian bases in Crimea and reducing Russia's gains from seizing this territory.

                Land 1



                Land 2



                TOTAL, most, most:



                The entire US strategy towards Russia in diagrams and tables. laughing
                1. Lipchanin
                  Lipchanin 10 December 2020 18: 15
                  +2
                  Quote: Arzt
                  The entire US strategy towards Russia in diagrams and tables.

                  Thanks, informative hi
              2. Lipchanin
                Lipchanin 10 December 2020 18: 14
                +2
                Quote: Arzt
                Too lazy to translate in detail, so with Google it is rough according to the schemes.

                Thank you hi
          3. 2 Level Advisor
            2 Level Advisor 10 December 2020 17: 56
            0
            Interesting, thanks .. and the US acts approximately according to their tables - where the minimum costs and the maximum efficiency are, this is what it strives for ..
        4. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin 10 December 2020 17: 12
          +2
          Quote: Mouse
          Sometimes we cannot calculate ourselves,

          "The mind cannot understand Russia ..." (c)
      2. passerby
        passerby 10 December 2020 17: 02
        +1
        The office seems to be serious, but nothing is clear from the article. What kind of confrontation was it, what was the goal of the sides? How and how can Ukraine and Georgia confront Russia on the Black Sea? Delirium, in short, complete.
        Quote: alexmach
        But, but. Rand is a very serious structure, private intelligence in essence.
    2. frruc
      frruc 10 December 2020 16: 33
      0
      ... The tension reaches its maximum when the Russian Su-24 attack aircraft, on low level flight, passes over the American destroyer and hits the ship, as a result of which several sailors die ...

      Gloomy scenario of the game. Better, as a result of which several sailors chewed the deck of the destroyer.
  2. Cananecat
    Cananecat 10 December 2020 16: 02
    +4
    Russia has achieved a partial victory ...
    They played by their own rules ... what if we start playing by our own?
  3. Nikolay Ivanov_5
    Nikolay Ivanov_5 10 December 2020 16: 04
    +5
    What are the US interests in the Black Sea ??? fool
    1. _Ugene_
      _Ugene_ 10 December 2020 16: 09
      +5
      the same as in the rest of the world, they are, like, gigimons
      1. Nikolay Ivanov_5
        Nikolay Ivanov_5 10 December 2020 16: 12
        -1
        Is this hegemony still not afraid to break the navel?
        1. _Ugene_
          _Ugene_ 10 December 2020 16: 26
          +3
          not afraid that so far no one can oppose them anything, neither militarily, nor economically, theoretically, after some decades, China will be able to, so the gigimon is already climbing out of its skin to slow them down
        2. Sergey39
          Sergey39 10 December 2020 16: 59
          +2
          The loss of a sense of self-preservation has destroyed more than one empire. "Hegemons" are next.
  4. rocket757
    rocket757 10 December 2020 16: 11
    +3
    It is clear that they have extensive Wishlist ...
    The question is what to do in response? Are the measures taken up to now sufficient?
    1. cniza
      cniza 10 December 2020 16: 27
      +3
      You can also play chess with yourself ... analytics may not be bad, but one-sided ...
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 10 December 2020 16: 50
        +3
        Quote: cniza
        You can play chess with yourself too

        There are such narcissistic individuals ... quietly with themselves, they conduct a conversation, and the whole world will wait.
        1. cniza
          cniza 10 December 2020 17: 14
          +2
          They are bad, or rather there are no specialists left who knew Russia, hence their variations are very scarce ...
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 10 December 2020 18: 16
            +1
            Previously, they had no doubts that we were different ...
            Now, we are almost like them, but with our kooks !!!
            Here specialists of a different profile are needed, but they did not prepare such specialists, because they did not expect such a trick from us !!!
            They can't understand Russia with their minds, but they will never understand our souls ... all the more so, those who run to them and whom they try to use, I will read no dolls, they have NO soul of ours!
            1. cniza
              cniza 10 December 2020 20: 51
              +2
              It's bad when the enemy is stupid ...
    2. Doctor
      Doctor 10 December 2020 17: 06
      +1
      It is clear that they have extensive Wishlist ...
      The question is what to do in response? Are the measures taken up to now sufficient?

      Here is more specific from them, another article.

      https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA357-1.html

      Main conclusions:



      From here to dance and act the other way around. repeat
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 10 December 2020 18: 22
        0
        To any incline from beyond the hill, okeyana, there is only one answer - to strengthen, restore, build up!
        They will not cancel their plans anyway, but they will have to keep within certain limits, because they can get on the legs, not weakly.
  5. APASUS
    APASUS 10 December 2020 16: 15
    0
    A Russian Su-24 attack aircraft, on low level flight, passes over an American destroyer and hits the ship, as a result of which several sailors are killed.

    Did I miss something ? This is when our plane hit an American warship so much that American sailors were killed? Yes, this war would be right away
    1. _Ugene_
      _Ugene_ 10 December 2020 16: 24
      +4
      yes there would be no war, and in such a situation it is much more likely that the pilots will die and not the sailors
      1. alexmach
        alexmach 10 December 2020 16: 46
        +1
        It doesn't matter at all. They just needed a conditional trigger to escalate tensions.
        1. _Ugene_
          _Ugene_ 10 December 2020 16: 49
          0
          and could not think of anything better. it is difficult at all to come up with such a trigger after which hostilities would begin, there are no fools to fight with nuclear powers
    2. cniza
      cniza 10 December 2020 16: 26
      +3
      And the Su-24 has never been an attack aircraft ... yes
      1. Kart
        Kart 10 December 2020 16: 56
        +2
        Yes, this is just an ironic fantasy about possible American analytics.
        Well, fir-trees.
        1. cniza
          cniza 10 December 2020 17: 16
          +1
          So I am ironic, usually such details are never discussed, what kind of aircraft ... yes
  6. cniza
    cniza 10 December 2020 16: 24
    +1
    Romania, Ukraine and Georgia did not succumb to Russian pressure. But Turkey and Bulgaria failed: they refused to participate in the NATO flotilla in the Black Sea, thanks to which Russia achieved a partial victory

    Is this a hint - a hint or a threat?
    1. Kart
      Kart 10 December 2020 16: 58
      +3
      The fleets of Ukraine and Georgia are especially strong. Where is Turkey.
      Putin is already in awe.
      1. cniza
        cniza 10 December 2020 17: 17
        +1
        And Romanians and Bulgarians are not so hot ...
    2. businessv
      businessv 10 December 2020 19: 11
      +1
      Quote: cniza
      Is this a hint - a hint or a threat?

      I think that this is a statement of fact - there is simply no way back for these three!
      1. cniza
        cniza 10 December 2020 20: 56
        +1
        It seems like ...
  7. Alexfly
    Alexfly 10 December 2020 16: 26
    +1
    Therefore, the principle, perhaps, is to create a grouping in the immediate vicinity of the US borders and keep ships with missiles in the immediate vicinity of Manhattan?
    1. evgen1221
      evgen1221 11 December 2020 09: 59
      -1
      Throwing yao to america - we physically won't have enough yao and carriers. 300 million and very wide cities plus a sparse population, plus you need to have a margin for 2nd and 3rd waves
  8. NF68
    NF68 10 December 2020 17: 55
    +1
    Have you stuck your long noses too far? Where is the Black Sea and where are you?
  9. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 10 December 2020 18: 41
    +1
    "With such a fantasy, and a wife is not needed" (c)
    All these "games" and optimal strategies are sheer nonsense. From the point of view of modern weapons, the Black Sea is, in general, a big puddle, and keeping serious ships there - either on duty, or at some bases - in the event of a serious conflict, this will be guaranteed to be fraught with the loss of these ships in, if not the first, then in one of the first stages.
    So all this is another provocation to impose reflexive control on us.
  10. businessv
    businessv 10 December 2020 19: 09
    +2
    The exercise clearly demonstrated the extent to which Russia's targeted use of non-military sources of power and influence can eliminate the need to run the risk of open military conflict with NATO.
    In fact, the game really showed that NATO sucks!
  11. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 10 December 2020 21: 34
    +2
    Romania, Ukraine and Georgia did not succumb to Russian pressure. But Turkey and Bulgaria failed: they refused to participate in the NATO flotilla in the Black Sea, thanks to which Russia achieved a partial victory
    Zvizdets, from the stars and stripes! A sort of American AGITPROM.
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  13. Igor Odessa
    Igor Odessa 11 December 2020 11: 09
    0
    "Americans have big problems in reconciling with reality"
    George Carlin
  14. Oleg Monarchist
    Oleg Monarchist 11 December 2020 15: 10
    0
    Romania, Ukraine and Georgia did not succumb to Russian pressure. But Turkey and Bulgaria failed: they refused to participate in the NATO flotilla in the Black Sea, thanks to which Russia achieved a partial victory


    And in his game, RAND did not take this fact into account?


    am