Military Review

2021 will be even worse - nightmares of vaccinations, unemployment and digital yuan

118

Horror from Saxo Bank



The whole world is eagerly awaiting the start of mass vaccination against coronavirus. But Saxo Bank chief economist Stina Jacobsen warns against euphoria. He believes that the hasty development and launch of a vaccine (more precisely, several vaccines at once) can hit the world economy no less than a lockdown.

Saxo Bank (a leading Danish investment bank) has no doubts that the impact of vaccinations will be negative. Excessive optimism about this is very dangerous: as after the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014.

In general, is there any point in expecting positive forecasts from bankers these days? After two waves of a pandemic and a negative lockdown, and so on in abundance. Nevertheless, catastrophists (like Mikhail Delyagin and his namesake Mikhail Khazin) do not appease.

However, not to say that the traditional skeptic Steen Jacobsen has already joined their ranks. It will be shown below that the negative forecasts of the most experienced banker did not always come true. However, today, in his opinion, the time has not yet come for optimism.

2021 will be even worse - nightmares of vaccinations, unemployment and digital yuan

Shock is Danish


According to Jacobsen, a sharp overheating of the economy, which has been in a state close to suspended animation for several months, is risky in itself, no matter what the Chinese authorities assert. Because of this, the monetary authorities of different countries will be forced to raise interest rates.

The rise in the price of credit resources after they were practically free will greatly complicate the debt situation for a number of companies hoping to get out of the crisis. Difficulties in debt service will put many of those who managed to survive the pandemic to the brink of bankruptcy,

- says the Danish banker.

The banker also seriously fears a strong rise in unemployment around the world. But this process will only start in 2021. It is unemployment that will push the mass of the population out of the megacities, which, according to Steen Jacobsen's estimates, simply cannot but become empty.

As a result, in order to maintain at least relative social stability, as well as to ensure a semblance of effective demand, developed countries cannot avoid introducing a system of so-called basic income.

However, this will not relieve many of them (for example, France) from the need to seek help from Germany. The main reason for this is the growing debt burden, which will inevitably reach 2021 percent of the country's GDP by 120.

Our future is offshore and bitcoin


Not so shocking, but also an original forecast, was made by Steen Jacobsen about online commerce, which grew by leaps and bounds on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The main event of 2021 in this area will be the relocation of the headquarters of the largest online retail company Amazon to Cyprus.

An offshore for such a giant is, of course, the best place. But it seems that Mr. Jacobsen does not know or does not want to know about one thing. About the fact that Russia, almost the main holder of private capital on the island, has just revised the terms of taxation of profits received there.

According to Steen Jacobsen (who at one time reacted very coolly to the advance of cryptocurrencies with bitcoin in the forefront and to the bet on digital money in general), it is in 2021 that a new reserve currency can be expected to appear. And although his allusion to either the same bitcoin or to the Chinese yuan was very transparent, it was never said directly.

Jacobsen opted for a rather streamlined formula. In his opinion, the Chinese authorities, in parallel with the widespread introduction of 5G networks, will put into circulation a digital version of the yuan.


She will become a real competitor to the dollar. Although claims for the status of a new reserve currency will require an unprecedented scale of emission. For cryptocurrencies, this is still unlikely.

Forecast is not a sentence


What is required of a good forecast is something completely different - a guide to action, as specific as possible. But why exactly the frightening forecasts of one of the most perspicacious banking analysts, Steen Jacobsen, once again, after several years of calm, have become the focus of the business press?

The specifics are alarming in his forecasts. Sometimes too straightforward. Some of the analysts who oppose Jacobsen have already said that he does not see the forest for the trees.

Isn't the chief economist at Saxo Bank overconfident, believing that Amazon will be able to negotiate a special preferential tax regime with the island nation? Thus, having received a clear advantage over competitors. Steen Jacobsen, however, admits that in response, the US and EU authorities are likely to take measures to tighten control over digital companies.

Thanks to such measures, along with the rapid development of digital 5G technologies, the most developed countries will acquire a blockchain network ramified to almost all business sectors. Her task will be, among other things, information verification and the fight against fake the news.

In addition, the blockchain network will also provide such hyper-control over citizens that even the notorious “chipization” will fade before its level. Moreover, in such a system of high technologies, according to Steen Jacobsen, it will be those who could be crushed by it that will invest - social networks Facebook and Twitter, as well as telegram channels.

A perfect storm ahead?


Recall that the same Jacobsen (chief economist of a Danish investment bank) earlier warned the world against the second wave of the global financial bubble crisis of 2008-2009. When this wave happened, he no longer doubted that it would not be strong enough, and not too long.

The fact that at that time political risks were superimposed on the economic problems (associated with the events in Syria and Ukraine, which were hardly possible to predict), only added the credibility of the analyst.

The Danish banker also predicted with great accuracy what the US trade war with China would be. And what it will definitely be. And in parallel - with the European Union.

Yes, he did not count on tough sanctions against Russia. Nor did I expect such a powerful exacerbation of the migration crisis. However, you should not demand this from a banker who operates exclusively in numbers in words.


Then Steen Jacobsen predicted a "perfect storm" when the entire world was in a state close to euphoria as it emerged from the second financial crisis.

This term became popular after the release of the blockbuster of the same name starring George Clooney.

But it didn't happen. Although again because unpredictable politics intervened.

Remember all


By the way, Jacobsen was waiting for the perfect storm at the turn of 2016 and 2017, when the Americans gave the White House to Donald Trump.

The storm then again did not take place. Because the exchanges suddenly remembered something.

More precisely, they remembered everything: and how pragmatic (unlike both the rival Hillary Clinton and the predecessor of Barack Obama) the 45th US President Donald Trump.

And most importantly, they remembered that Trump turned out to be an enemy of financiers and a supporter of industrialists. It seems that he did everything he could to ensure that the money went to the real sector, and above all to the American economy.

But just this cannot inspire stock exchange traders who have long been accustomed to doing nothing but inflating bubbles. But money cannot make money indefinitely. Even if it's dollars. You have to produce, build and provide services.

... And a spoonful of honey in the ointment


However, now, as it was four years ago, the state of affairs in the global economy and finance is even very suitable for a “perfect storm”. Inflation is at its lowest. And this is only good for ordinary people. But there is no incentive to invest in real production.

Due to the pandemic and low rates, none of the holders of large free capital wants to play for "conservation". And it throws funds back into the financial sector.


Joe Biden is not Don Trump. He will definitely be for the financiers now.

So indeed (according to Jacobsen), nothing good can be expected even from the post-pandemic warming up of the world economy.

And yet, in the shocking predictions of the Danish expert, there was a place for the positive.

So, in contrast to developed countries, the prospects for countries with developing economies are slightly better. According to the banker, they will receive an incentive for more dynamic development due to the widespread use of cheap high-speed Internet.

Jacobsen is also convinced that 2021 will kick off the energy revolution. In a number of countries, among which he did not directly name Russia, for some reason, the banker expects the launch of thermonuclear reactors using artificial intelligence.

It is characteristic that Jacobsen, who has always advocated alternative energy, has no doubts that the thermonuclear fusion of the third millennium will be environmentally safe. And this is what will solve the problem of the planet's shortage of food and fresh water.
Author:
Photos used:
reddit.com, finversia.ru, ggfutures.net
118 comments
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  1. Civil
    Civil 11 December 2020 12: 07
    +2
    The Russian government urged entrepreneurs to set prices for sunflower oil and sugar at a certain level. So, in retail, the cost of butter should not exceed 110 rubles per liter, and sugar - 45 rubles per kg.
    At a meeting with business representatives on December 10, the government gave instructions to stabilize food prices, the press service of First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said.


    Immediately I remember the end of 1988-91, this is where it all began. We sailed again. But of course your America's kiridk.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 18
      +18
      Quote: Civil
      But of course the kiridk to your America.

      I doubt it. There is still a huge queue in front of America for "kyrdik".
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 22
        -2
        Quote: tihonmarine
        Quote: Civil
        But of course the kiridk to your America.

        I doubt it. There is still a huge queue in front of America for "kyrdik".


        The planet's population is being prepared for the next big war .. Otherwise, those who live well, do not want to go to war ...
        1. tihonmarine
          tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 31
          +12
          Quote: Nasr
          And then, those who live well, do not want to go to war ...

          Interestingly, and when well-living wanted to fight?
          1. Nasrat
            Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 36
            -9
            Quote: tihonmarine

            Interestingly, and when well-living wanted to fight?

            This is just not interesting! Another thing is interesting - when will the biomass mature?
            Are you from the baltics? Preparing a doomsday structure for yourself and your family? If not, then in vain - the assholes will start half a day from you - you will have to nightmare them ..
            1. tihonmarine
              tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 44
              +10
              Quote: Nasr
              Are you from the baltics? Preparing a doomsday structure for yourself and your family?

              I don’t know that I didn’t notice, everything is calm. And about the day of judgment, so this is my 92-year-old mother-in-law, suffering from "Alzheimer's", keeps talking.
              1. Nasrat
                Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 55
                -6
                Quote: tihonmarine

                I do not know that I did not notice, everything is calm. ...

                Covert deployment ... and the grandmother lived - she knows what she is talking about !!!
                1. tihonmarine
                  tihonmarine 11 December 2020 13: 11
                  +5
                  Quote: Nasr
                  and grandmother lived - she knows what she is talking about!

                  She could not stand it, she died in August. Kingdom to her ...
                  1. Nasrat
                    Nasrat 11 December 2020 13: 20
                    0
                    Quote: tihonmarine
                    Quote: Nasr
                    and grandmother lived - she knows what she is talking about!

                    She could not stand it, she died in August. Kingdom to her ...

                    Condolences ... hi
          2. Ros 56
            Ros 56 11 December 2020 13: 31
            +7
            You might think that those who live poorly want to fight, also do not want to, need compels or the owner.
          3. aybolyt678
            aybolyt678 11 December 2020 14: 42
            +4
            Quote: tihonmarine
            Interestingly, and when well-living wanted to fight?

            times of Ancient Rome! it was considered an honor for the patricians to serve in the army.
            1. Revolver
              Revolver 12 December 2020 01: 18
              +7
              Quote: aybolyt678
              times of Ancient Rome! it was considered an honor for the patricians to serve in the army.

              I do not remember who said, but to the point: "The old and the rich start wars, and the young and the poor die in them."
        2. Machito
          Machito 11 December 2020 12: 51
          +9
          Despite Jacobsen's successful predictions, he is not good for Wangi and Nostradamus. There are too many experts, and according to the theory of probability, at least one of them should hit the target. But you don't have to be Vanga to predict what will happen, it is enough to re-read Marx. The contradictions of the capitalist system are growing, "paper" unsecured assets inflate, forming new bubbles, which will inevitably lead to a crisis or local wars.
        3. veritas
          veritas 11 December 2020 13: 40
          +6
          Quote: Nasr
          And then, those who live well, do not want to go to war ...

          Do those who live badly want?
          1. Nasrat
            Nasrat 11 December 2020 14: 08
            -1
            Quote: veritas
            Quote: Nasr
            And then, those who live well, do not want to go to war ...

            Do those who live badly want?

            And what do you think? The main thing is to point out the culprit of troubles and proclaim lofty goals! A couple of years of propaganda and an ideological fighter is ready!
        4. Simargl
          Simargl 11 December 2020 18: 49
          +2
          Quote: Nasr
          The world's population is being prepared for the next big war ..
          They don't cook for a big one - they scare it. But for the victims of the little ones it is not easier.
          If anyone has not noticed, amid local conflicts, the global economic is raging.
      2. Ros 56
        Ros 56 11 December 2020 13: 28
        -5
        So in the states how many weapons are on hand, and what if it starts shooting?
    2. Svarog
      Svarog 11 December 2020 12: 35
      +2
      Quote: Civil
      Immediately I remember the end of 1988-91, this is where it all began. We sailed again. But of course your America's kiridk.

      Two years ago I started talking here that the 90s are near .. But even this year, the urakrichals were proving with all their might that this was not so .. And this is so, and the 90s are very close, only this time everything will be much worse.
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 40
        -1
        Quote: Svarog

        Two years ago I started talking here that the 90s are near .. But even this year, the urakrichals were proving with all their might that this was not so .. And this is so, and the 90s are very close, only this time everything will be much worse.

        Something you are late - with we all will die .. in the change shift got what?
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 11 December 2020 12: 50
          +3
          Quote: Nasr
          Quote: Svarog

          Two years ago I started talking here that the 90s are near .. But even this year, the urakrichals were proving with all their might that this was not so .. And this is so, and the 90s are very close, only this time everything will be much worse.

          Something you are late - with we all will die .. in the change shift got what?

          We have been dying out for 30 years, only three years ago, when the demography was relatively normal .. But the situation is only getting worse.
          1. Nasrat
            Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 59
            -7
            Quote: Svarog

            We have been dying out for 30 years ...

            This is your remission! Have you tried to leave offspring?

            Quote: Svarog

            But the situation is only getting worse.

            This is the usual state of the Russians ...
            1. Svarog
              Svarog 11 December 2020 13: 06
              +3
              Quote: Nasr

              This is your remission! Have you tried to leave offspring?

              I'm worried about the offspring ..
              This is the usual state of the Russians ...

              Habitual for the last 30 years.
            2. New Year day
              New Year day 11 December 2020 13: 08
              +8
              Quote: Nasr
              This is the usual state of the Russians ...

              trouble! women have stopped giving birth! True, there are Uzbeks and Tajiks, they can replace Russians
              1. Svarog
                Svarog 11 December 2020 13: 11
                0
                Quote: Silvestr
                Quote: Nasr
                This is the usual state of the Russians ...

                trouble! women have stopped giving birth! True, there are Uzbeks and Tajiks, they can replace Russians

                Evlampy with his nickname expresses his attitude to this problem.
              2. Nasrat
                Nasrat 11 December 2020 13: 14
                -4
                hello, Sylvester! One gets the impression that you are the curator of Svarog ... you came to promote the topic, he is somehow weak so far ... - but the fact that this topic is yours with Svarog is obvious even to newcomers IN ..... I already help him, he has not yet grasped the straws that I hold out to him ... wink

                Uzbeks and Tajiks give birth, the Russians do not when - they warn everyone at VO that they have come ... wassat
                1. veritas
                  veritas 11 December 2020 13: 43
                  +4
                  Quote: Nasr
                  Uzbeks and Tajiks give birth, the Russians do not when - they warn everyone at VO that they have come ...

                  It is not necessary to warn about this, everyone will feel it on his own.
                  1. Nasrat
                    Nasrat 11 December 2020 14: 18
                    -1
                    Quote: veritas
                    Quote: Nasr
                    Uzbeks and Tajiks give birth, the Russians do not when - they warn everyone at VO that they have come ...

                    It is not necessary to warn about this, everyone will feel it on his own.

                    The Uzbeks and the Tajiks are the same, otherwise they warn above that they are occupying Russia? ...
                2. New Year day
                  New Year day 11 December 2020 18: 48
                  -1
                  Quote: Nasr
                  Russians have no time - they warn everyone at VO that the oop has come ..

                  So did you come or not? laughing
      2. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 47
        +7
        Quote: Svarog
        But even this year, the urakrichaki argued with all their might that this was not so.

        Chatting, not having diarrhea, tohas not hurting.
        1. Nasrat
          Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 52
          -4
          Quote: tihonmarine
          Quote: Svarog
          Two years ago I started talking here that the 90s are near. ...

          Chatting, not having diarrhea, tohas not hurting.


          wassat
      3. Poganini
        Poganini 11 December 2020 12: 52
        -4
        You will speak for two more years, and then you will speak for two more years, and the 90s will not come. To speak is not to roll bags.
        1. veritas
          veritas 11 December 2020 13: 45
          +9
          Quote: Poganini
          To speak - do not toss bags.

          Under this "wisdom" the photo of the guarantor is not enough.
          1. Poganini
            Poganini 11 December 2020 14: 34
            -5
            It seems like Svarog is commenting here, not a guarantor. Or you don’t care what your deity is attached to, do you have a guarantor in every barrel of a plug?
          2. Xnumx vis
            Xnumx vis 11 December 2020 21: 28
            -3
            Quote: veritas
            Quote: Poganini
            To speak - do not toss bags.

            Under this "wisdom" the photo of the guarantor is not enough.

            This statement FIG knows how old! And you, the guarantor, dragged along. Not to the village, not to the city. You are a true Fighter !!!
      4. Interlocutor
        Interlocutor 11 December 2020 13: 10
        -6
        Did you dig the grave?
      5. Vadim237
        Vadim237 11 December 2020 16: 25
        -3
        "And this is so, and the 90s are very close, only this time everything will be much worse." Let's talk about this in 10 years - in the heading "Dreamers and predictors 2020".
    3. veritas
      veritas 11 December 2020 13: 39
      +5
      Quote: Civil
      But of course the kiridk to your America.

      While the fat dries, the thin one dies.
    4. Vadim237
      Vadim237 11 December 2020 16: 23
      -2
      "Immediately I remember the end of 1988-91, this is how it all began." Then everything was different and started differently.
    5. Vol4ara
      Vol4ara 11 December 2020 16: 51
      +2
      Fusion in the future will bury oil and gas, not entirely of course, the production of plastics and other organic matter will not go anywhere, but nevertheless it is the clinical death of the entire sector. Finally, gasoline will become cheaper: D but this is not certain, in Russia they do not like to break traditions.
      Globally, these are of course solid pluses, the ecology will become much better. But for the Russian Federation it is like a guillotine, the atomic sphere will also be very strongly affected
      1. karima
        karima 11 December 2020 18: 40
        0
        Quote: Vol4ara
        Thermopoison will bury oil and gas in the future
        Yeah, as well as steppes, forests and meadows, rivers of the sea and okey.
    6. Revolver
      Revolver 12 December 2020 01: 21
      +2
      Quote: Civil
      But of course the kiridk to your America.

      Generations of Russians are born, live, and die in the expectation that the dollar and America are about to collapse.
  2. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 11 December 2020 12: 11
    +9
    I went through perestroika, watched the collapse of the USSR, survived the "dashing 90s", two Chechen wars, two world crises, the fall of the ruble passed through my mind ... I saw "zeroing" and I most likely "already have antibodies to the coronavirus. ..
    So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!
    1. 7,62h54
      7,62h54 11 December 2020 12: 18
      +3
      We must at least wait for the ballet show on the Blue Eye.
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 11 December 2020 12: 21
        -6
        Well, I'm younger and from a kind of centenarians. I hope I can wait)))
    2. Artavazdych
      Artavazdych 11 December 2020 12: 24
      -10%
      You shouldn't be afraid of a banker. But about the loss of freedom, I would think. Since April I have been in prison "voluntarily", and they tell us - do not inject the vaccine - we will not release it, and besides, we will fire. It is impossible to avoid the vaccine (to bribe the nurse). There is a digital marker in the vaccine, and you can immediately see whether you made a vaccine or not.
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 27
        -1
        Quote: Artavazdych
        You shouldn't be afraid of a banker. But about the loss of freedom, I would think. Since April I have been in prison "voluntarily", and they tell us - do not inject the vaccine - we will not release it, and besides, we will fire. It is impossible to get rid of the vaccine (bribe the nurse). There is a digital marker in the vaccine, and you can immediately see whether you made a vaccine or not.

        The main thing in your life is everything voluntarily ... and it's cool!
        1. Artavazdych
          Artavazdych 11 December 2020 12: 30
          0
          And this is true - the main thing. It turns out that our children study on distance education with our consent!
          1. Nasrat
            Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 32
            -2
            Quote: Artavazdych
            And this is true - the main thing. It turns out that our children study on distance education with our consent!

            We need to improve the process!
          2. Kart
            Kart 11 December 2020 12: 47
            +3
            Do not agree, fight to the end!
            Let your kids not learn at all! What can mode teach them?
            And even better, in protest, all the dissatisfied should get together, of course, without masks.
            1. Artavazdych
              Artavazdych 11 December 2020 15: 59
              0
              It's sarcasm? If yes, then...
            2. Xnumx vis
              Xnumx vis 11 December 2020 21: 32
              +1
              Quote: Carte
              Do not agree, fight to the end!
              Let your kids not learn at all! What can mode teach them?
              And even better, in protest, all the dissatisfied should get together, of course, without masks.

              Better barefoot and in the cold! Natural selection has not yet been canceled!
      2. 7,62h54
        7,62h54 11 December 2020 12: 41
        +10
        Tell us about the digital marker, please. How does he work?
        1. Artavazdych
          Artavazdych 11 December 2020 16: 05
          0
          I do not know, I myself cannot understand. We were given a vaccination certificate. In which it is indicated that the vaccination data is entered into an integrated electronic medical record. What is it, I have not found anywhere. Apparently integrated - this means that it integrates with the human body?
          No matter how they laugh at Mikhalkov's film about Gates - here it is, reality.
          In short, for the time being they gave me a challenge for the vaccine due to the fact that I do not smell the smell and cough. While there is time.
          1. Vadim237
            Vadim237 11 December 2020 16: 29
            0
            Please consult a doctor - about a "digital marker" of the brain.
            1. Artavazdych
              Artavazdych 11 December 2020 16: 42
              -2
              Live in a mask, get a vaccine and do not get sick. Well, even if you get sick, it's not scary. You will be cured by doctors who complete the honey. distance learning universities.
              1. Vadim237
                Vadim237 11 December 2020 21: 26
                -5
                I have already vaccinated, the result was a little headache and the injection site ached - I feel great and now you can get a good fine in transport without a mask.
                1. Artavazdych
                  Artavazdych 12 December 2020 19: 15
                  0
                  After 22 days, the second dose. Wish you luck.
            2. awdrgy
              awdrgy 12 December 2020 22: 35
              +1
              Well, why is it so about a person Who knows what the scientists came up with I think it is worth a couple of three years to wait and see what there is with this vaccine, unless of course you are afraid of the coronavirus If you can take a very scary risk We mature people are used to not trusting anyone, even ourselves Many believed this belief to others no matter what authority they have) in most cases it is critically expensive, especially in our world of competition and money It happens, of course, and vice versa, but rarely In the end, well, judge for yourself, why is someone suddenly so worried about our health? (abortions and booze lope and the coronavirus must be avoided) Suspicious The entire life experience of a person who is used to relying only on himself says that something is wrong here and there is no need to rush
          2. awdrgy
            awdrgy 12 December 2020 22: 19
            0
            As I understand it, what kind of scanner will take off the Old? But I wonder how much time is left
      3. Interlocutor
        Interlocutor 11 December 2020 13: 11
        +4
        I've been in jail "voluntarily" since April, and they tell us - don't inject the vaccine - we won't let you out, and besides, we will fire you. It is impossible to get rid of the vaccine (bribe the nurse). There is a digital marker in the vaccine, and you can immediately see whether you made a vaccine or not.


        Why smoke?
        1. Xnumx vis
          Xnumx vis 11 December 2020 21: 35
          0
          Quote: Interlocutor
          There is a digital marker in the vaccine,

          lol The marker will be in the left nostril, working like a transmitter. ... And control the right nostril. laughing
          1. awdrgy
            awdrgy 12 December 2020 22: 54
            +1
            good Yeah, or on the head and wrist where the body temperature is variable with a maximum amplitude (to ensure the operation of the marker by recharging the mini-battery of the chip that will work as a carrier of some information, the transmitter and control ??? well, in general, we can really breathe with nostrils or not breathe) good drinks laughing
      4. Svarog
        Svarog 11 December 2020 13: 36
        +7
        Quote: Artavazdych
        There is a digital marker in the vaccine, and you can immediately see whether you made a vaccine or not.

        I wonder if you could tell us more about the digital marker?
      5. Vol4ara
        Vol4ara 11 December 2020 16: 54
        +1
        Quote: Artavazdych
        There is a digital marker in the vaccine, and you can immediately see whether you made a vaccine or not.

        What nonsense are you talking about, and they believe ...
        Do not be darak in the eyes of others, write at least that information about vaccinations is checked by ifa, so your nonsense will be more believable
        1. Artavazdych
          Artavazdych 14 December 2020 16: 52
          -1
          I don't argue with a fool
          I'm not a fool.
    3. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 32
      +2
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      I saw "zeroing" and I most likely "already have antibodies to coronavirus ...
      So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!

      Now this is the words of her husband.
    4. Svarog
      Svarog 11 December 2020 12: 36
      -4
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!

      Everyone went through these "delights", but what they are preparing for us will be even more nightmarish ..
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 46
        0
        Quote: Svarog

        Everyone went through these "delights", but what they are preparing for us will be even more nightmarish ..

        Are you hinting at "Cyclone"? I knew that everything would end with gas chambers ...
      2. veritas
        veritas 11 December 2020 13: 50
        +7
        Quote: Svarog
        Quote: Leader of the Redskins
        So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!

        Everyone went through these "delights", but what they are preparing for us will be even more nightmarish ..

        Is everyone in heaven? Or just the poor. It became cold here, two homeless people live in the entrance. And it's a pity to drive out, the cold is wild and I worry about the children. In general, a bad tendency is evident.
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 11 December 2020 14: 21
          +2
          Quote: veritas
          Quote: Svarog
          Quote: Leader of the Redskins
          So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!

          Everyone went through these "delights", but what they are preparing for us will be even more nightmarish ..

          Is everyone in heaven? Or just the poor. It became cold here, two homeless people live in the entrance. And it's a pity to drive out, the cold is wild and I worry about the children. In general, a bad tendency is evident.

          We have no homeless people at the entrance yet ... they all cluster around the heating mains, and in the evening they sit at the five, asking for alms. Sorry for people ..
          1. Vol4ara
            Vol4ara 11 December 2020 17: 02
            +1
            Quote: Svarog
            Quote: veritas
            Quote: Svarog
            Quote: Leader of the Redskins
            So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!

            Everyone went through these "delights", but what they are preparing for us will be even more nightmarish ..

            Is everyone in heaven? Or just the poor. It became cold here, two homeless people live in the entrance. And it's a pity to drive out, the cold is wild and I worry about the children. In general, a bad tendency is evident.

            We have no homeless people at the entrance yet ... they all cluster around the heating mains, and in the evening they sit at the five, asking for alms. Sorry for people ..

            Need to work. In the cowsheds of cattle in the daytime you can't find fire, but they ask for alms. Throw in the village, there will be a roof and work. They are not homeless because life is such, but because they are lazy
          2. ximkim
            ximkim 11 December 2020 19: 09
            +3
            Now homeless people are at the entrance, it's not fashionable. I am now working on a new building, where the entire first floor is non-residential (commercial premises), and the generating company does not start up the batteries, since they are not going to heat them for free (these premises have not yet been purchased, no contracts have been concluded), and the second floors residential (apartments). so they freeze People complain, but there is no sense, so they have the opportunity to feel a little like homeless lol
    5. Lech from Android.
      Lech from Android. 11 December 2020 12: 53
      +3
      So I am afraid of a prediction from a banker? !!!


      smile The Soviet people are not afraid of anything.
      We do not care,
      We do not care,
      May we fear the wolf and the owl.
      We have a deal -
      At the most terrible hour
      We are magical
      Cut the grass-grass.
    6. veritas
      veritas 11 December 2020 13: 48
      +6
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      I saw "zeroing" and I most likely "already have antibodies to coronavirus ...

      Zeroing, almost like a lunar landing laughing The event is truly extraordinary.
  3. Nasrat
    Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 15
    -2
    Perhaps you need to throw a couple of boxes of condensed milk into the cellar .... I like it with bread and tea from a saucer ..
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 36
      +1
      Quote: Nasr
      Perhaps you need to throw a couple of boxes of condensed milk into the cellar .... I like it with bread and tea from a saucer.

      And from childhood I was weaned from condensed milk. Better to throw a couple of boxes "Moscow. I think it will not turn sour ... I love my pickled mushrooms and cucumbers with Chilean pepper."
      1. Nasrat
        Nasrat 11 December 2020 12: 49
        -4
        Quote: tihonmarine
        Better to throw a couple of boxes "Moscow. I think it will not turn sour ... I love my pickled mushrooms and cucumbers with Chilean pepper."


        U ... yeah, you haven't prepared the main supplies yet ... well how can that be? rather darling, hurry up!
        1. tihonmarine
          tihonmarine 11 December 2020 13: 09
          +1
          Quote: Nasr
          U ... yeah, you haven't prepared the main supplies yet ... well how can that be?

          Tomorrow I'll go to Riga, there "Moscow" is cheaper, I will fill the gap. I overlooked or did not notice how it ended.
          1. Nasrat
            Nasrat 11 December 2020 13: 25
            -5
            Quote: tihonmarine
            .... fill in the gap. Overlooked, or did not notice how it ended.


            It's good that you train !!!
            1. tihonmarine
              tihonmarine 11 December 2020 13: 41
              0
              Quote: Nasr
              It's good that you train !!!

              With training, everything is in order, as they say, "you can't drink experience."
    2. awdrgy
      awdrgy 13 December 2020 00: 49
      0
      Already, but now I will have to fight with my wife drinks
  4. 9 Shaft
    9 Shaft 11 December 2020 12: 18
    +2
    As already zadolbali everyone - the plague pandemic was terrible, after which 50 percent of people remained in Europe, and this show-off and money, money and show-off and nothing else. All health)))
    1. Interlocutor
      Interlocutor 11 December 2020 13: 12
      0
      We are all watching the TV series "Plague". There the people just "get lost"
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 11 December 2020 12: 18
    +2
    Excessive optimism about this is very dangerous: as after the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014.

    Quite understandable fears, warning.
    So the crisis began before the infection spread to the world. All serious analysts say so.
    So, in contrast to developed countries, the prospects for countries with developing economies are slightly better. According to the banker, they will receive an incentive for more dynamic development due to the widespread use of cheap high-speed Internet.

    Is it true ???
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 11 December 2020 12: 40
      +4
      Quote: rocket757
      Is it true ???

      I don't know, but they write that "the Internet is the engine of production of industrial relations."
      Although now, who only writes what, the Internet will endure everything.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 11 December 2020 13: 12
        +4
        There is no doubt that the world is a great achievement for all of us .... start reading for any science fiction writer, so there are holo, astro, world and other networks, MANDATORY!
        Only there it is not presented as a miracle of miracles for the development of everything, everything and everywhere. It's just a very handy tool, a way to communicate and build various industrial, commercial and other projects ...
        BUT, even with them, with the exception of some good dreamers, everything remains as before, i.e. people live, rejoice, suffer, starve, fight, and so on, so on ... in short, the same thing, only a little faster, more efficiently, etc.
        1. NDR-791
          NDR-791 11 December 2020 13: 37
          +3
          This is how all these fortune tellers taught Fukuyama and his post-industrial world. They really need and really want it to come true right now - to sit in front of the monitor without doing anything and count the zeroes on the virtual account. And so the statements of the banker are also not feeble - leave everything to corporations and enjoy !!! You will have fusion and green energy and cocoa with tea ...
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 11 December 2020 13: 52
            +4
            Quote: NDR-791
            You will have fusion and green energy and cocoa with tea ...

            Yes, nothing will happen if the hard worker Vanya, John, Mustafa, .... and others, others will not go to work and DO, we need everything.
            Sitting, pressing buttons, is an entertaining business, but it will not come very soon, will it come at all, the time when you do not have to plow in the fields, work on a conveyor belt, and so on, so on.
            1. NDR-791
              NDR-791 11 December 2020 13: 56
              +3
              Sitting, pressing buttons, is an entertaining business, but it will not come very soon,
              So I say that Fukuyama with his predictions flew like plywood. This has long been clear to everyone. But THESE continue to dream and are trying to drag the whole world into their dreams. No matter what predictor he is, I will break him off !!! Not a damn thing!
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 11 December 2020 13: 59
                +1
                Quote: NDR-791
                So I say that Fukuyama with his predictions flew like plywood.

                The usual near-philosophical reflections. It didn't suit me in any way. It was a pity to waste time.
            2. Xnumx vis
              Xnumx vis 11 December 2020 21: 45
              0
              Quote: rocket757
              Yes, nothing will happen if the hard worker Vanya, John, Mustafa, .... and others, others will not go to work and DO, we need everything.
              Sitting, pressing buttons, is an entertaining business, but it will not come very soon, will it come at all, the time when you do not have to plow in the fields, work on a conveyor belt, and so on, so on.

              Hard workers will stay. The ladies' writers will disappear from all UMS, UFS, offices, banks, office plankton will disappear, like street photographers and public laundries used to be. And only people can build ships, houses, care for gardens.
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 12 December 2020 09: 20
                0
                Automation of many, many processes will take place, very slowly. For a person, his place among all this, as a manager, correcting and other link, will remain for a very long time.
                1. Xnumx vis
                  Xnumx vis 12 December 2020 11: 21
                  0
                  Quote: rocket757
                  Automation of many, many processes will take place, very slowly. For a person, his place among all this, as a manager, correcting and other link, will remain for a very long time.

                  Question. And how many people will be needed for this link? Million five. It seems to me hi
                  1. rocket757
                    rocket757 12 December 2020 11: 54
                    +1
                    Quote: 30 vis
                    Question. And how many people will be needed for

                    This is a natural process that began long ago and will continue further.
                    Human society is enough .... flexible, when REAL problems grow, require changes in various relations within society, and so it happens.
                    My opinion ... there is probably a limit to changes, but whether we will reach it and when, this is not a question even after, after, after tomorrow.
      2. Victorio
        Victorio 11 December 2020 13: 27
        +1
        to whom the war, and to whom the mother is dear. in latvia, prices have already risen, it is necessary to compensate for the current and future costs. how is it there in estonia?
      3. Horon
        Horon 11 December 2020 13: 48
        0
        whoever does not write anything, the Internet will endure everything.

        The Internet has long turned into a cesspool of waste from the human mind.
  6. Sergey39
    Sergey39 11 December 2020 12: 58
    0
    "Joe Biden is not Don Trump for you."
    Yes, Biden is not Trump and is unlikely to be.
  7. ccsr
    ccsr 11 December 2020 13: 07
    +5
    It is characteristic that Jacobsen, who has always advocated alternative energy, has no doubts that the thermonuclear fusion of the third millennium will be environmentally safe. And this is what will solve the problem of the planet's shortage of food and fresh water.

    It is a pity that Jacobsen did not indicate in which decade of the 21st century the problem of a controlled thermonuclear reaction would be solved - Velikhov promised us from the sixties of the last century that everything would work out just about, but he did not live to see this bright day.
    I'm afraid that Jacobsen and I will not survive either ...
    In general, it is certainly possible to take into account forecasts of this kind, but the events with the coronavirus have once again shown that all this is dregs. And a local catastrophic event in some area of ​​human activity, with the current integration of world capital, industry and human resources, can shake the entire globe much more than any scientist in his office can predict. For example, we still do not even know what the consequences of Fukushima will be for the entire Pacific region in the coming years, and hardly anyone is able to predict this, but someone already predicts that everything will be fine. But this already causes distrust of such "prophets" ...
  8. Poganini
    Poganini 11 December 2020 13: 08
    -4
    We are going through another "interesting" period of history. However, they love us, and we are getting stronger, we have already experienced so much nonsense, it is unlikely that this will seriously shake us. It's just that this "nonsense" is some kind of unexpected or something. Ka in the movie "Epidemic," is only easier. Rosstat will soon calculate the minuses of situevin, but, oddly enough, there are pluses. Offhand, I see two: 1) you can make decent money on the previously unexpected high-tech vaccine market, 2) the amer will not be able to inflict serious damage, IMHO, our most important aircraft building program - the creation of the MC-21. Yes, they struck strong and accurate blows on it, but the market will not recover soon, and we must be in time.
  9. DAQ
    DAQ 11 December 2020 13: 10
    +3
    The article is the wildest delirium.
    As a result, in order to maintain at least relative social stability, as well as to ensure a semblance of effective demand, developed countries cannot avoid introducing a system of so-called basic income.

    However, this will not relieve many of them (for example, France) from the need to seek help from Germany. The main reason for this is the growth of debt burden, which will inevitably reach 2021 percent of the country's GDP by 120.


    The author is clearly not familiar with the realities of the modern economy.
    Basic income is the slogan of leftist populists. Economists talk about this just because everyone knows it. But not one normal economist has proposed this.
    France will go to Germany for help laughing
    The author probably does not know that the market rate of French annual bonds is NEGATIVE. What does this mean? This means that if you lend 100 euros to the French government, you will receive 99 euros and 30 cents a year ago. I understand for many it will seem wild, but such are the realities. The rates on short-term public debt of advanced economies are negative. Medium-term about 0%. And only long-term securities have a small positive yield.

    The yield on 10-year bonds (that is, at what percentage France borrows for 10 years) 0.38% per year

    The yield on annual bonds (rate for 1 year) is negative. -0.69% p.a.


    In Denmark, 8 years ago, the interest on the national debt began to fall below zero


    In Germany, 4 years ago, interest on 10-year debt began to fall below zero
    1. tasha
      tasha 11 December 2020 13: 15
      0
      Roman, since you are in the subject, please explain what a negative rate on short-term government bonds means. On your fingers, if you can. Those. what is happening, for example, in the French economy ...
      1. DAQ
        DAQ 11 December 2020 13: 47
        +4
        Roman, since you are in the subject, then explain what the negative rate on short-term government bonds means. On your fingers, if you can. Those. what is happening, for example, in the French economy ...


        A negative rate on short-term government bonds means:
        Government bonds, they are also bonds, are debt securities, that is, "paper" (in fact, they are no longer paper, but digital) according to which the state is obliged to pay money to the owner who will own the bonds at the time of expiration (they can be bought and sold at any time , without waiting for the due date), as well as to pay "coupons" (that is, interest, if any, there are bonds on which interest is paid annually, and there are so-called discount bonds, that is, the state issues bonds for, say, 1 year with a nominal par value of 1.000.000 and sells them at a discount, additional interest is not provided.If they are bought for 990.000, then in a year they will receive 1.000.000 back income (1%).
        Short-term loans are loans for a short term, usually no more than a few months, usually used to plug urgent holes in the budget. That is, the budget is calculated for a year, salaries and other expenses must be paid conditionally monthly, or even more often, and tax revenues come, say, once a quarter (differently everywhere). Until the state has received taxes, it needs to take money somewhere to cover current expenses.
        A negative rate means that, say, a bank or a fund that lends money will not receive profit in the form of dividends, but, on the contrary, will pay for the fact that the state has taken the money for preservation.

        Why is this happening? Due to the rules set by the European Central Bank.
        If a bank wants to borrow money from the ECB, then the rate there is from 0 to + 0.25% per annum. Taking it is not so easy, you need a pledge (mostly government bonds are pledged), but that's another topic.
        But the bank cannot keep money in its account. He must either take them in cash (which is also not free, besides, banks have no place to store money in tens of billions, they need to be stored according to security rules and a bunch of other rules), he must use them, or pay the European Central Bank for holding money in the accounts of the ECB. The interest that banks pay to the ECB for keeping money is called the deposit rate. This is done to force banks to let money into the economy.
        The first negative deposit rate was applied in Europe in 2014.


        In order not to pay the deposit rate to the central bank, commercial banks are forced to lend them to reliable borrowers such as Germany and France. But the demand for bonds is very high. Banks compete over who will lend money. They are forced to offer money for "storage", and France or Germany will take the money from the one who gives the most. As a result, banks agree to pay France notionally 0.4% in order not to pay the ECB 0.5% per year. All interest is conditional, the ECB can change them and thus help the economy.
        1. DAQ
          DAQ 11 December 2020 14: 04
          +4
          And yes, decent European banks now practically do not pay interest on deposits in euros. Smaller, riskier banks can pay. But keep in mind that such banks lend to those who are forced to pay higher interest rates, because they are considered more risky borrowers (or use them for more risky transactions).
        2. tasha
          tasha 11 December 2020 14: 06
          +1
          Roman, thank you very much for your answer.
          Do I understand correctly that banks have so much money that they cannot place all of them, because fiddling with cash requires additional costs, and non-cash money is subject to different taxes?
          1. DAQ
            DAQ 11 December 2020 14: 14
            +4
            I guess, yes.
            Dofig money. The ECB continues to print in trillions.
            Nowhere to go.
            But they don't just print money, that is, if European countries do not have money, the central bank will print it, but it will not give it away. He can lend to banks, which in turn will lend to states, or often the central bank itself buys bonds.

            This also works in the USA. The Fed prints money, lends it to banks, banks buy American debt. Also, the Fed itself buys up American debt directly. Therefore, when talking about American debt, keep in mind that one way or another they owe a significant portion of the debt to themselves. And practically all the interest that the FRS receives from the printed money that the FRS lends to banks and the state will return back to the budget.
            1. tasha
              tasha 11 December 2020 14: 35
              +1
              She will print it about cash .. And interest on loans and credits, they also accumulate and accumulate? And sooner or later there are a lot of them ... Could it be that all the fuss with cryptocurrencies is needed in order to drain the excess money? Well, roughly speaking, you bought gruokin for $ 10, and a week later it costs only $ 1 was written off and that's it and no one is to blame, you bought it yourself ..
  10. The comment was deleted.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 11 December 2020 14: 11
    +10
    It is clear that not everyone will reach the finish line, as this year. smile Why should the New Year be good? Will the confrontation of various political forces in the world end? Will the struggle for resources stop, for example, the United States will return the oil fields of Syria, and the Turks will get out of Idlib? Will the sanctions be lifted? But no. The EU extended them. The only consolation is that in the New Year we will not all die at once. smile
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 11 December 2020 16: 33
      0
      We are waiting for another new infection made in China - they have one color there every year in winter and summer.
  12. bk316
    bk316 11 December 2020 15: 13
    +1
    He believes that the hasty development and launch of a vaccine (more precisely, several vaccines at once) can hit the world economy no less than a lockdown.

    The mechanism is interesting. The author can enlighten?
  13. Orrin
    Orrin 11 December 2020 16: 40
    +5
    2021 will be even worse

    The economy will definitely be worse. There will be deterioration in politics as well. There are no improvements yet ...
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 11 December 2020 21: 27
      +1
      Oil is growing already improving and it is the main indicator of the world economy - nothing can be done without hydrocarbon products.
    2. solzh
      solzh 12 December 2020 03: 06
      +25
      Quote: Orrin
      The economy will definitely get worse.

      Forecasts for the economic crisis in the Russian Federation indicate a deterioration in all areas. This is due to the current state of affairs in the country against the backdrop of a slowdown in the global economy, a protracted recession, a decline in the production of industrial goods and uncertainty due to the pandemic ...
    3. Svarog
      Svarog 13 December 2020 01: 07
      +2
      There will be deterioration due to the increasing US aggression in the world.
  14. Muromec
    Muromec 11 December 2020 17: 05
    +4
    Everyone scares and scares us .. And Russia is frightened and endured so much in the 20th century that the whole world never dreamed of. And the beginning of the 21st century was also on the brink!
    War? maybe some of the world's tycoons have run out of money and the war is a mother to them. Well, these crises are global, but ugh on them .. The main thing is that the Army and the Navy are strong! Let's break through guys .. soldier
    It's time for Ilya Muromets to get up from the stove, the enemies surrounded Mother Russia, clattering with hungry fangs .. Already they even gnawed the stove))))
    1. tralflot1832
      tralflot1832 12 December 2020 11: 03
      0
      It looks like Ilya Muromets just hung his legs off the stove and was wondering whether to go down to the floor! This moment should not be missed when he went down to the floor! hi
  15. Vaxtovik
    Vaxtovik 11 December 2020 20: 42
    +3
    Horror from Saxo Bank

    We cannot be scared by China, let the west shake. They owe them trillions and are tied to their industries, etc. ...
    And for Russia the main thing is to keep and build up the Army and the Navy, the potential is great hi
    And then you can calmly start restoring order on all fronts inside the country. soldier We keep the line, men!
  16. nikvic46
    nikvic46 12 December 2020 07: 29
    +4
    Sometimes an inconspicuous economist will accurately predict the future situation, But no one will notice him. Although he hit the mark. Oracles have spread like cockroaches in an old house. Each of them puffs out their cheeks importantly, and begins to broadcast. A person has long been afraid of unpredictable phenomena. century scientists tried to get ahead of the events. In ours, they run after the train. The main phenomenon is information noise. Some shout, they say, "whiners" need to be pressed. As if for many hundreds of years, human characters have changed. As there were three types of character, they remained. A person is always afraid of invisible threats, and will be afraid.
  17. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 12 December 2020 11: 00
    -1
    We have something to eat, we will survive. Hollywood's prophecies are coming true. Classic, to the West Honey Mach 2 to help (with the unforgettable Tina Turner). As in the USSR: if only there was no war!