Military Review

Truce in Donbass. And yet it works


Source: Wikimedia Commons

Four months

This is the fifth month of an indefinite truce. Starting on July 27, it continues. Surprisingly to the skeptics, who predicted that this time the ceasefire would be violated either in the first days, or, at best, after the local elections in Ukraine on October 25, 2020. By some miracle, a precarious balance exists today. Although violations occur almost every day. Both sides suffer chronic losses. True, there are no civilian casualties. And this is already wonderful.

It should be noted that violations are of a systemic nature. However, we are talking about small arms weapons... Sometimes about grenade launchers equipped with UAV ammunition. Or the work of snipers. Sometimes mortars even work, but the artillery is silent, and the skirmishes are sporadic and short-lived. And this is a pleasant surprise, inspiring cautious optimism. As for losses, most often we are talking about non-combat ones. Unfortunately, with the arrival of cold weather on both sides of the demarcation, alcohol is increasingly used as a warming agent, which often ends in crossbows and conflicts with shooting as a result of hazing. Mine explosions are also common.

Comedian peacemaker

It is worth remembering that the onset of the quietest truce in the entire history The conflict was preceded by amazing passes in Donetsk and Lugansk, when the heads of the republics suddenly announced a regime of high alert and began to threaten to respond symmetrically to any aggressive actions of Kiev. The promise was not fulfilled. But the point was clearly not in this, but in the subtext. "Curators" authorized Pushilin and Pasechnik to warn Kiev about possible serious losses, which (in case of misunderstanding) will be organized by the forces of the People's Militia with the support of the North Wind blowing in the back.

I involuntarily want to ask a question:

"Why, it was impossible before?"

Indeed, from the first days of the rule of the "peacemaker" Zelensky, tensions along the contact line have grown significantly, and dozens of soldiers and civilians began to die. Why were all these dances with a tambourine and humiliating flash mobs with requests to "accept the choice"? Was it really not clear in the sixth year of the war that Kiev would only hear the language of force? And (the most logical question) why were all these civilian and military casualties, if it was possible from the beginning to explain to the “peacemaker” comedian that Kiev would be beaten in the teeth for any antics?

How much more?

In general, the situation is unique for the conflict in Donbass: for the first time, not only the People's Militia, but also the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively forcing silence and giving a hat for breaking it. And for the first time, Ukrainian couch patriots are crying about the "ban on otvetka" and "drain". It is unclear how long this almost utopian situation will last. But there is reason to believe that something really changed this time.

The question is, how long will the truce last and what will the confrontation eventually come to? On the one hand, Kiev benefits from the sluggish conflict in the east. Especially if it will be possible to reduce military spending. At the same time, if Ukraine is ordered to launch a suicidal attack tomorrow, it will be forced to obey the order. Not to mention the fact that the escalation of the conflict is possible as political speculation.

I would like to believe that the LDNR (and moreover, the RF) is considering all possible options.
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  1. Smirnoff
    Smirnoff 2 December 2020 18: 11
    That the guns are silent is good. But somehow it is hard to believe that in Kiev they were frightened by the warnings - before they did not listen. Maybe a pause due to internal political confusion overseas?
    1. Holgerton
      Holgerton 2 December 2020 20: 00
      It is very likely, because the election campaign in the United States began at the beginning of the summer, at about the same time an initiative for this ceasefire appeared on the Ukrainian side. The ceasefire lasts and, by an amazing coincidence, the United States is still determined with the results, as soon as the new administration gains power, then it will be clear who, what and who is really acting.
      And from a position of strength, there is no point in pushing for a long time, they have long been saying that it would be effective in 2014-2015, but at the moment there is no longer any point.
  2. iouris
    iouris 2 December 2020 18: 15
    No. Nothing changed. This is a form of war.
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 2 December 2020 18: 40
      Yes. For starvation. Only the potential of dill is clearly greater. Even if the losses are equivalent, then the LPNR will run out of personnel earlier ...
      1. ximkim
        ximkim 2 December 2020 21: 06
        And with torment.
      2. skobars
        skobars 2 December 2020 23: 02
        Not really, the Banderlog are going to rush into suicidal attacks. At least 6 years ago it was like that. And during this time, the detachments of the ideological maydanutyh also thinned out, and the Armed Forces did not climb forward without a convincing order, and with little resistance they immediately rolled back. They are fans of shooting from afar. So the comparison of potentials does not rule here.
    2. Ros 56
      Ros 56 2 December 2020 19: 24
      As it has not changed, the striped ones have elections. So the Natsiks are waiting for permission.
  3. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 2 December 2020 18: 52
    But there is reason to believe that something really changed this time.

    What are these grounds?
    Biden and his son came to power in the USA hi ?
    Or did Brussels decide to make a present to Putin?

    There is no reason here ... the general line of the West has not changed one iota ... the forms of pressure can only change ... why misinform the members of the forum.belay
  4. Avior
    Avior 2 December 2020 18: 54
    ... "Curators" authorized Pushilin and Pasechnik to warn Kiev about possible serious losses, which (in case of misunderstanding) will be organized by the forces of the People's Militia with the support of the North Wind blowing in the back.

    It looks like the author is giving out what he wants. For real.
    We remember these last Chinese warnings from Pushilin every week about some kind of trench. Straight scared.
  5. Dimide
    Dimide 2 December 2020 19: 37
    The article is a reminder "the LDNR has not died yet"!
    Gumkonvoy passed.
    1. Vladimir61
      Vladimir61 2 December 2020 20: 25
      Quote: Dimid
      Gumkonvoy passed.

      I came and they are glad there - no one is forgotten and nothing is forgotten!
      But "not yet dead," somehow bad luck with the Gumkomvoy, even from the IMF, even as a whole ... Although everyone promises her, though only by means of self-liquidation, until the last Svidomo.
  6. certero
    certero 2 December 2020 19: 54
    It was necessary from the very first day of the conflict to declare Russia's tough position on this issue. They say let it be any form of political struggle, but if shooting at the people is immediately a compulsion to peace. Such a position could cause exactly the same sanctions, but at least it would be clear and precise. And there would be no death of people.
  7. svoit
    svoit 2 December 2020 21: 29
    Quote: Smirnoff
    that the warnings were scared in Kiev -

    Where does it say that they were scared in Kiev? It seems that the republics were scared, after all, Kiev did not withdraw the troops, or am I mistaken?
  8. Roman_LKW
    Roman_LKW 3 December 2020 00: 31
    A friend of the border guard (AFU) said that they shoot mostly at night. They are looking for drg separators, in their rear, which mine primers. Often, at the same time, they find groups of nazbats who cannot calm down and are looking for adventure ...
    This means that Zelya is fulfilling her promise, just do not hope that Ukraine will take the Donbass back to itself, we somehow ourselves.
  9. Niel-le-Calais
    Niel-le-Calais 3 December 2020 00: 42
    It was funny for the author, they issued an ultimatum and more than one. The enemy did nothing. The DPR did nothing, but they pass it off as a victory.
    Yes, if ultimatums worked this way, who would have fought?
    In general, instead of writing that all these efforts of the leaders do not work, he took it and made it over.
    Moreover, the north wind dragged along .. Well, yes - it blows when the LDNR is necessary, and not when the "North".
    The North has no time, their task is to remove them from the balance sheet, to transfer them on their own terms. And they don't want to take it.
    So they are butting.
    The fight of the Nanai boys .. They declare one thing (independence, entry into the Russian Federation, the Russian world), they fulfill another (they are shoved back into Ukraine).
    The latter declare territorial integrity and the struggle for territory, but do not want to take territory according to someone else's rules. Hemorrhoids in some and others with this territory and deceived people.
    ORDLo is simultaneously on the balance of two states, but seven nannies have a child without an eye. As a result, chaos and depletion of the resources of this piece of land.
    It is clear that as long as there is a butting and spending of the Russian Federation on the LPNR, no one remembers the Crimea. This is the true reason and price. And people, their interests are not taken into account. Endure as the curators call. Hostages in general.
    They cover Crimea with their lives.
  10. Alex66
    Alex66 3 December 2020 07: 42
    The question is, how long will the truce last and what will the confrontation eventually come to? They are waiting for a new master in the White House, it depends on him, last time they did not guess with Trump, now they are not waiting for who will be their master.