Military Review

OPEC + yesterday, OPEC minus tomorrow

40

Second wave - second war



SARS-CoV-2 continues to advance. In any case, this is precisely what we are constantly being persuaded by the powers that be and all the world's media. And although the coronavirus pandemic (like the devastation of Professor Preobrazhensky) is primarily in the brain, its negative impact has to be taken for granted.

How does it affect the hydrocarbon market? Of course it's bad. Although (since spring) even regular OPEC meetings, regardless of their format, have clearly attracted insufficient attention from the press and those in power.

But it is not excluded that only because very little changed at these meetings. Almost unnoticed, for example, the August decrease in the amount of quotas to cut production from 9,7 to 7,7 million barrels per day remained.

When the Chinese economy started to pick up again, it seemed to many that there was no need to worry about the prices of black gold, and hence of gas. And few people were seriously frightened even by the small and by no means victorious (and for both sides) oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.

At the moment, the situation also does not seem to cause concern. Oil has caught on above 40 and even $ 45 per barrel of Brent blend. However, the tension with futures is already being felt - they began to decline, barely noticeable and so far not smooth, but rather pointwise.

Yes, the factor of winter, which in Europe and North America does not promise to be excessively warm at all, should soothe. In addition, it works in conjunction with the fact that many Europeans will spend their Christmas holidays at home, which, one way or another, will have to be heated.

OPEC + yesterday, OPEC minus tomorrow

Even a drop in demand from transport (primarily - aviation) companies have long been taken into account by the market. But why, then, did the oil producers - members of the OPEC cartel - twitch. Do they really fear that Russia could bring the market down again to keep its hard-to-reach wells alive?

Russia starts and ...


It should be remembered that the first pandemic oil crisis (more precisely, the same "little oil war") happened, of course, allegedly because of Russia. Is it any wonder when we are guilty, it seems, by definition, always and in everything.

But after all, Russia simply had nowhere to go - it was imposed such a reduction quota that it was easier to simply shut down all production in the country. More than six months have passed since that first war. The situation has changed and some measures have already been taken.

They took exactly the time. And they were simply necessary for the smooth suspension of many complex wells. However, now on the agenda are the cold weather that has already begun and the impossibility for Russia, without the threat of losing sales markets, to cut at least something else.

It seems that this is why such calls from Moscow followed, as the promotion to the status of Deputy Prime Minister of Energy Minister Alexander Novak and a series of statements by reputable oilmen, starting with the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin.


Source: Wikimedia Commons

Alexander Novak, shortly before the next meeting with OPEC members, made it clear that Russia:

“We need to continue to be committed to our commitments. Especially in the context of today's and ongoing uncertainties and the conjuncture that develops during the period of winter demand. "

Igor Sechin, unlike the Deputy Prime Minister, was more specific, recalling the large volumes of Russian oil supplies to China. They, according to the head of the largest Russian oil company, help our country to respond softer to the tough proposals of OPEC.


Source: STRF.ru

However, Sechin has no doubts that

"You have to work in any environment, whatever it may be."

Here, in his words,

“Everything depends on the coordinated actions of market participants. First of all, of course, on the level of consumption ”.

China will not be silent


The most important question for OPEC at the moment (as well as for non-cartel oil-producing countries) is how to maintain demand. Indeed, in the event of a fall in prices, only China can benefit, which, however, is also not interested in adopting even stricter production quotas than now.

This can also come back to haunt subsequently with a sharp jump in prices and the loss of all Chinese acquisitions of the covid era. Apparently, not without hidden coordination with buyers from the Middle Kingdom, the organization has now managed to take a break.

We must not forget that along with the second wave of SARS-CoV-2, a positive factor began to act - vaccines against it are about to begin to be actively used. Moreover, they are far from being as "dubious" as the Russian Sputnik-V.

It is still difficult to fully assess the new factors, but at least somehow figure it out before December 1 would still have to. As you know, the main meeting of the OPEC member countries and the participants in the OPEC + deal is scheduled for this day. Otherwise it could have been late.


Most likely, the time factor has become the main incentive to not change anything at all. And this will most likely be the second prolongation of the existing quotas in November.

Violators of the convention


Nevertheless, news that the United Arab Emirates could withdraw from the OPEC + agreement at any time, almost thwarted the prolongation of the deal. The point is not even the UAE quota, which is not so large - only 0,72 million barrels out of the total 9,7 million.

Now the Emirati quota has been reduced by another 0,14 million barrels and may well be covered by Saudi Arabia and several other countries. But the possible domino effect is especially dangerous, which, which cannot be ruled out, may work for Russia as well.

As you know, Russia is one of the most disciplined participants in the kind of OPEC + oil convention. It is an agreement to cut oil production, which was signed in mid-April. That is, in the midst of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

The cartel members, along with the largest producing countries that joined them (including Russia, the United States, Kazakhstan and Mexico) then reduced production by 9,7 million barrels per day at once. But, as soon as three months passed by the terms of the deal, production began to grow.

Fears of a second wave of pandemic, which were justified with a clear excess, only slightly slowed down growth. However, two "extra" million barrels of daily production may well be really superfluous.

Especially taking into account the fact that from the beginning of 2022 a new restrictive quota will begin to operate, which is less by another 1,9 million barrels per day and amounts to 5,8 million. Moreover, it is planned that its application will last until April 2022.

It's not about Trump. But not in Biden either


The agreements with OPEC for Russia are increasingly reminiscent of the notorious sanctions, primarily American ones. Independent experts generally believe that reconciliation with the Saudi sheikhs became possible precisely because it promised the involvement of another potential violator of the convention, the United States, in the OPEC + deal.

And after them - and Mexico, which supplies oil almost exclusively to the states. And President Trump did not accidentally emphasize his personal participation in joining OPEC + and this country.

The Republican president, who never became his own for the powerful oil lobby, really wanted to be one at least in an election year. But it did not happen, as (by all indications) it will not happen with Biden.


Source: Wikimedia Commons

But his sanctions strikes on the raw materials sector of the Russian economy will most likely be concentrated almost exclusively on Nord Stream 2. And even if it is already practically recognized that the Americans cannot stop him, they still need to keep their face. Any of the US presidents.

In the meantime, oil quotas are hitting the Russian GDP harder than the sanctions, due to which the economic downturn was almost twice as large. So, if Rosstat recorded a decrease in the Russian economy in the third quarter by 3,6%, then the Ministry of Finance calculated that without taking into account the OPEC + deal, it could be only 2%.

Another thing is that without a reduction quota, Russia would then have to sell its oil not at $ 40-45 per barrel, as it is now, but at $ 20-25 or even cheaper. And there our GDP would have fallen even more.
Author:
Photos used:
img.vz.ru, fingazeta.ru, cdn.yenicad.ru, cdnimg.rg.ru
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  1. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 2 December 2020 12: 14
    +2
    pandemic coronavirus (like the devastation of Professor Preobrazhensky) primarily in the brains
    I am very interested in who thought of this pandemic, that the whole world was crazy! wassat
    1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
      Boris ⁣ Shaver 2 December 2020 12: 26
      -3
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      I am very interested in who thought of this pandemic, that the whole world was crazy

      An acquaintance works in a covid hospital. He says that in the fall the number of junior medical staff had to be dramatically increased, since the corpses had no time to "prepare for discharge" with the available forces. Now they have to work with corpses - one of the main tasks of hastily recruited as junior medical staff of senior students of medical universities. This is how these guys had their first experience of working in a hospital.
      And I wish you good health.
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 2 December 2020 12: 36
        -2
        I agree with you.
        ... who thought of this pandemic, that the whole world was crazy

        And although the coronavirus pandemic ... primarily in the brains ...

        Only people who are infinitely far from medicine, whom, fortunately, the disease bypassed, none of their relatives died, can write like this ...
        It's easy to feel like a hero, seeing the fight from afar ...
        1. Kuz
          Kuz 2 December 2020 13: 30
          +18
          Quote: Doccor18
          Only people who are infinitely far from medicine

          Not at all a fraction of medicine. For covid patients, drugs are used that have serious side effects, incl. cause lethality. But even such "discharged" ones are recorded in statistics on covid victims. The family also has a case.
          You, as I understand it, do not agree that covid insanity is deliberately created, which is called "by prior agreement." but most likely "on command"
          1. Doccor18
            Doccor18 2 December 2020 13: 43
            -4
            You, as I understand it, do not agree that covid insanity is intentional ..

            What does insanity mean?
            Anti-epidemic measures, which were carried out in some places and with difficulty, but even this was enough to almost paralyze the economy? Or media screams? So at all times it was, "to whom the war, and to whom the mother is dear ..."
            I am against the denial of the disease as such, against the denial of the epidemic. After all, both exist. The fact that many people use this to solve their own problems is not new.
            1. Roman070280
              Roman070280 3 December 2020 11: 03
              -5
              What does insanity mean?

              Insanity means that more people die from an accident .. but no one yells that everyone should lock themselves at home and not go out on the road ..

              I am against denial of disease as such, against denial epidemics. After all, both exist.

              There have always been diseases ..
              But there is no epidemic ...
              At least read the definition on Wikipedia ..
              You are insolently poured into your ears from the screen .. nothing more ..

              PS .. although some of us even manage to call it a pandemic .. they just have more loud words ..))
      2. Uncle lee
        Uncle lee 2 December 2020 12: 37
        +4
        Quote: Boris ⁣Razor
        I wish you great health.

        Thank you for your wishes ... I do not deny the presence of an epidemic. One thing confuses me - Boris Johnson, our Mishustin, Leshchenko, etc. recovered in a week! And as you write in hospitals, people die like flies! Or is the covid elite among the elite, or is the treatment different from the described hospital? Something a lot incomprehensible ...
        1. Eugen alpine
          Eugen alpine 2 December 2020 13: 08
          +8
          The explanation is quite simple. Dust is literally blown away from high-ranking politicians, that is, constant monitoring of subordinates and staff, walking distance of specialized specialists, the absence of the slightest delay in obtaining high-tech diagnostics (endoscopy, CT, MRI, PET), do not forget about timely drug support with any drugs, including acutely deficient ones. , as well as not certified in the state (if necessary) without the slightest delay and without the risk of counterfeiting. So the low mortality rate among the top politicians of any country should not be cited as an example. Doesn't hit. Yesterday at my appointment out of 65 primary 40 with positive. All young social with 50+ income. 1-2 of them will die, and maybe not one. And in the neighboring budgetary clinic there is a contingent with an age of 60+ and an income of 15 or less. With the same incidence, the numbers will differ, right?
          1. Uncle lee
            Uncle lee 2 December 2020 13: 13
            +1
            Quote: Eugen Alpine
            60+ with an income of 15 or less. With the same incidence, the numbers will differ, right?

            Right ! Under the guise of "cleaning up" ballast and unnecessary mouths.
          2. Roman070280
            Roman070280 3 December 2020 11: 11
            -2
            From high-ranking politicians, literally specks of dust are blown away, that is, constant monitoring of subordinates and staff


            Yes, yes .. blown away ..))
            All these people, before meeting with the maskless Putin, sat in quarantine for a month (or rather two), and took tests every hour .. And so, one hundred people from the environment a day .. and plus a thousand people of those with whom this hundred crossed .. ))

            And Dima Peskov is removed from Navka at night, and both are tested .. otherwise suddenly a speck of dust will fly by ..




            In the photo we see what a terrible "epidemic" looks like ..))
        2. pereselenec
          pereselenec 2 December 2020 13: 18
          -3
          Quote: Uncle Lee
          And as you write in hospitals, people die like flies!

          It's just that all the dead are attributed to covid.
        3. Imobile
          Imobile 2 December 2020 16: 15
          0
          I am sick for the second time, the first month I was sick, not very hard. It’s like a strong flu where nothing helps. And now for a week, it seems to be in a mild form, but yesterday it became bad in a few hours, I almost threw away my skates. Today, it seems like norms, I don't call doctors. The first time they did nothing.
        4. serezhasoldatow
          serezhasoldatow 2 December 2020 19: 39
          0
          I was cured in two weeks without going to the hospital. Smells, however, still not all have recovered. Three tests, the first +, the rest -.
          1. Imobile
            Imobile 2 December 2020 20: 29
            0
            I am shocked by the loss, I don’t feel cologne, but I can smell some smells, the same barely noticeable smell of dew in the eau de toilette, which I didn’t notice before, the pungent smell of eau de toilette has disappeared completely, I don’t even feel a hint. The cat litter could not clean, the smell caused vomiting, now it is easy. I have been smelling more and more over the last week. And the first smell I felt a week ago, when I went to the fish department of Ashan, I almost vomited. The first time I was sick, the sense of smell did not disappear
            1. serezhasoldatow
              serezhasoldatow 2 December 2020 21: 05
              +1
              Absolutely the same sensations. The smells are muffled, I try to walk more, in the evenings, to put my lungs in order. The benefit is in quarantine until December 31. Our employee died yesterday, he fell ill a week and a half earlier than me. I went to work all the time. October 10 marks 66 years. His mother is alive, she is 102 years old. Health to you and your loved ones.
              1. Imobile
                Imobile 2 December 2020 22: 32
                +1
                Thanks. Yes, forces appear only on the street. Movement is life. Even when there is no strength, I open the window to the full and sit down next to me, there is no balcony. And if you just make a crack, it becomes bad. Health to all!
        5. Roman070280
          Roman070280 3 December 2020 11: 04
          -3
          Boris Johnson, our Mishustin, Leshchenko and others recovered in a week! And as you write in hospitals, people die like flies! Or the elite covid,


          Putin generally prefers to risk dying from the virus in his old age, but does not risk being vaccinated with the vaunted vaccine ..))
          At the same time, he walks everywhere without a mask.
      3. Roman070280
        Roman070280 3 December 2020 10: 58
        0
        Now they have work with corpses - one of the main tasks


        More than 2 million people die in Russia every year.
        40 thousand have died from the so-called covid.

        By what percentage of a percentage, comparable to the level of error, the number of corpses increased by yourself?

        Someone is clearly breshing ..))
    2. Kuz
      Kuz 2 December 2020 12: 32
      +15
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      I am very interested in who thought of this pandemic, that the whole world was crazy

      "Look for who benefits" Where do political and economic technologists sit?
      1. Poseidon
        Poseidon 2 December 2020 20: 09
        -3
        Quote: Kuz
        Quote: Uncle Lee
        I am very interested in who thought of this pandemic, that the whole world was crazy

        "Look for who benefits" Where do political and economic technologists sit?

        This is exactly how Sergey, who comes out on top according to the Forbos rating .. And most importantly, the "quiet world tycoons" .. The redistribution of property and resources begins ..
        I hope the world will manage without war, although this is less and less believed .. hi
        The rate is Russia is the main one in the world now angry .. And we do not want to be a "stake" again, that is the question of the global world! Were already in their history and more than once .. We have a great experience! Who is the newcomer, that is the question in Russia? And "Get up, the country is huge ..", WE have not forgotten "gentlemen".
  2. credo
    credo 2 December 2020 12: 15
    +9
    It is necessary to build an oil refinery in Russia and sell not raw materials, but products from it with high added value, thereby not reducing our production, but developing our economy in all directions.
    1. Nasrat
      Nasrat 2 December 2020 12: 29
      0
      Quote: credo
      We need to build an oil refinery in Russia ...

      Already .., built and / or completely modernized (actually rebuilt)

      https://zen.yandex.ru/media/sdelanounas.ru/gigantskaia-otrasl-sozdana-s-nulia-42-ogromnyh-zavoda-postroeny-v-rossii-teper-my-treti-v-mire-5ee76db2b0abff2489fdc02d
      1. 2 Level Advisor
        2 Level Advisor 2 December 2020 12: 39
        +5
        it means they have built a little, since they do not have time to process .. woodworking needs to be developed .. and many other industries, where we have been selling raw materials for some reason, for years, it was already possible to build up half of the country with factories and workshops, profit is guaranteed ..
        1. Nasrat
          Nasrat 2 December 2020 12: 50
          -3
          Quote: 2 level advisor
          it means they have built a little, since they do not have time to process .. woodworking needs to be developed .. and many other industries, where we have been selling raw materials for some reason, for years, it was already possible to build up half of the country with factories and workshops, profit is guaranteed ..

          The level of comments makes me happy! And they also say that the exam is to blame for everything ...
          1. 2 Level Advisor
            2 Level Advisor 2 December 2020 13: 04
            -1
            I agree, this is not from Zen and we have made links to throw ..
            although you are right, Evlampy - it is better to "chew" smaller thoughts - it is clear for everyone to be, but at work, they distract, call hi
            1. Nasrat
              Nasrat 2 December 2020 13: 21
              -4
              Quote: 2 level advisor
              I agree, this is not from Zen and we have made links to throw ..
              :

              Let's sarcasm !!!! Good luck !!! And, in fact, what is written there incorrectly?

              Quote: Level 2 Advisor
              ... but at work, distracting, call


              Yes, go to work, otherwise build factories a little, for which you stand up during working hours (!). It is from these plants that you will export "not oil" - the profit is guaranteed !!! ... wassat
  3. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 2 December 2020 12: 16
    +4
    Oil is our everything! But we are not on the oil needle, are we?
    1. Pessimist22
      Pessimist22 2 December 2020 12: 34
      +5
      Of course not, we're on a dollar needle smile
  4. Alexey Sommer
    Alexey Sommer 2 December 2020 12: 33
    +3
    We must not forget that along with the second wave of SARS-CoV-2, a positive factor began to act - vaccines against it are about to begin to be actively used. Moreover, they are far from being as "dubious" as the Russian Sputnik-V.

    That's all you need to know about this article and its authors. hi
  5. Basarev
    Basarev 2 December 2020 12: 40
    +4
    The trouble is that in order to restore oil well-being, when a barrel has been stable at more than 100, more than one country will have to be thrown out of export. The USA and their friends will definitely not offend themselves .. Therefore, there are only disabled people like Iran, Venezuela and Russia. Therefore, the West is facing the task of completely stopping exports from these countries. Few people think about it, but there is also a positive effect: thereby, these are pulling Russia off the oil needle. It would be nice to get off the rest too.
    1. NDR-791
      NDR-791 2 December 2020 12: 49
      0
      Few think about it, but there is also a positive effect: by doing so, these are pulling Russia off the oil needle. It would be nice to get off the others.
      Yes, many people not only think, but also know the truth. However, those who are "unable to do" do not mind. Download yourself and download, like it's enough for our century ...
    2. Keyser soze
      Keyser soze 2 December 2020 12: 56
      +1
      to restore oil prosperity, when a barrel was stable at more than 100, more than one country would have to be thrown out of export.


      Six months ago there were reports from British Petrolium and Royal Dutch Shell, which said that prices may never reach $ 100. Keep in mind that China from 2030 or 35 (don't remember exactly) will stop selling cars on gasoline and diesel. Almost the entire EU from 2025-2030-2035 stops selling cars on gasoline and diesel. Half of the auto concerns have already stopped developing new engines.

      The oil industry will certainly not disappear, but when large consumers of fuel disappear, prices will go down sharply.
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 2 December 2020 12: 58
        0
        Yes, that's the whole problem. As the triumphant march of electric cars will have to continue to throw out country after country already to keep at least today's prices. Until one monopoly country remains, perhaps.
  6. Deniska999
    Deniska999 2 December 2020 12: 41
    -1
    Give oil for 10 bucks.
  7. zwlad
    zwlad 2 December 2020 12: 51
    +5
    Unfortunately, the pandemic is far from fictional. It is further complicated by the fact that there are no medicines at all in pharmacies. At least here in Mordovia.
    Yes, and covid is given to one of 5-6 people, although the symptoms are the same and are treated in the same way. These are the statistics. So those numbers that can be officially multiplied by 5. And the picture will change immediately.
  8. 72jora72
    72jora72 2 December 2020 15: 16
    +2
    Moreover, they are far from being as "dubious" as the Russian Sputnik-V.
    And what is its doubtfulness?
  9. nikvic46
    nikvic46 2 December 2020 15: 24
    0
    China has shown that it is possible to reduce the level of diseases not only with medicines, but also with serious work of regional leaders with the masses. Many leaders of various levels who could not work correctly at the beginning of this infection have been dismissed. And I am sure that China will fully accept any new I cannot say anything about quotas. I am far from all this. I’m only surprised by the statements about not yet sold products. All these overpricing hits the price. Hearing such announcements, exchanges crash product prices. Commerce loves secrets.
    1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
      Boris ⁣ Shaver 2 December 2020 16: 52
      +2
      Quote: nikvic46
      I am sure that China will fully accept any new infection

      Especially considering the absence of free medicine in most of the territory of this country and the miserable income of most of its citizens, who cannot afford paid medicine. By the way, that's why every unprecedented infection breeds there. And then this infection comes to us. This is not the first case with the coronavirus. Even under the USSR there were cases of importation of infection from there, which only thanks to the efforts of Soviet doctors did not turn into an all-Union epidemic.
      Chinese "communist" oligarchs spat on the health of their people, and the whole world suffers from this. Yes, they quickly promoted a digital concentration camp on the topic of coronavirus. This helped, mainly, to quickly hide the real information about the scale of morbidity and mortality in the country. How in such conditions (when all infa from there is carefully filtered) can you say that China is capable of meeting something "fully armed"?
      1. Uncle lee
        Uncle lee 3 December 2020 03: 26
        0
        Quote: Boris ⁣Razor
        they quickly advanced a digital concentration camp on the topic of coronavirus.

        Colleague hi It was done quickly and efficiently! And the rest of the world is being pushed to this, us too ... The result of the pandemic: cleaning up extra mouths (65+) and a digital concentration camp. And this is a new reality.
  10. Roman070280
    Roman070280 3 December 2020 10: 52
    -1
    that's why such calls from Moscow followed as promotion to the status of deputy prime minister Minister of Energy Alexander Novak and a series of statements reputable oilmen, starting with the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin.


    Well, everything .. after this you can sleep well .. The problem is settled ..))