Why did Armenia win in the first war in Karabakh and lost in the second?

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The defeat of Armenia in Karabakh was not only a serious tragedy for the Armenian people, but also a great shock. Indeed, in the last war, the Armenians managed to defeat the Azerbaijani army.

In fact, the very existence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was a consequence of the defeat of the Azerbaijanis in the first Karabakh war 26 years ago. But if then the Armenians managed to defeat the Azerbaijani army and take control of a number of adjacent regions, now we have observed a radically different situation.



The first reason is Pashinyan


Armenian political scientist Andranik Tevanyan believes that the main guarantee of victory in the last Karabakh war was that Armenia was able to turn scattered armed units into a regular army. The second Karabakh war led to the opposite result - the army split into detachments. And Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is to blame for this.

There is a certain truth in Tevanyan's words. Nikol Pashinyan bears personal responsibility for what happened in Karabakh. And this responsibility stems from his dubious political course. From a desire to limit Russia's influence without a real assessment of the consequences of such a limitation.

Finally, Pashinyan misinformed the Armenian people to the very end and did not send units of the regular Armenian army to help the fighting Karabakh. As a result, Armenia got what it got.

But Pashinyan's policy cannot be called the only reason for defeat in a new bloody war. First of all, the very balance of power has changed.

The second reason is a change in the balance of power


In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan was a weak state that had just gained sovereignty, torn apart by internal political contradictions and lacking a strong army. The only thing is that the Azerbaijani troops (due to the differences in the population of Armenia and Azerbaijan) have always outnumbered the Armenian army in terms of personnel. But the weapons were about the same. Plus, the Armenians were ideologically motivated and eager to fight for Nagorno-Karabakh. On ideology, personal courage and ability to fight, the Armenians won the first Karabakh war.

A quarter of a century has passed. The economic and military-political situation in the Transcaucasus has seriously changed. Azerbaijan (under the rule of the Aliyev clan) over these decades has become one of the most prosperous and stable states in the post-Soviet space. Oil revenues and aid to Turkey have enabled Azerbaijan to form a powerful and well-armed army. At the same time, Baku received comprehensive support from Ankara: from military-technical to moral and ideological.


Nagorno-Karabakh had to rely only on itself.

The third reason is the lack of real allies


Potential allies and patrons of Armenia hesitated and did not want to openly take her side.

Turkey was determined immediately. It was emphasized that the problems of the Azerbaijani people are the problems of the Turkish people. Exactly according to the concept of "two states - one people".

Tactics of use drones also perfectly justified itself in Karabakh. What drew the attention of many foreign and Russian military experts. The main supplier of drones was, of course, Turkey.

What do we see from the Armenian side?

France supports Armenia only in words, without taking any real steps to protect Armenian interests in Transcaucasia.

USA are busy with the presidential elections and have withdrawn themselves from the problem.

Iran cannot support Armenia, even though it is in his geopolitical interests. For an Islamic republic, in which a third of the population are ethnic Azerbaijanis, it is impermissible to support Christians (against Muslims).

Russia is in good relations not only with Armenia, but also with Azerbaijan. And there is no need to quarrel with the latter either.

As a result, it was easy to intercede for the NKR there is nobody.

The fourth reason is jingoistic patriotism


On the other hand, their arrogance played a bad joke on the Armenians. At the very beginning of the war, there were very strong jingoistic patriotic sentiments among the Armenians: they say, not only will we defend Karabakh, but we will take Baku too, if we want. Did not work out.

But it was this jingoistic patriotism that prevented the Armenian side from soberly assessing its strength. To compare them with the potential of neighboring Azerbaijan and build a strategy based on the real balance of forces of the parties. In fact, the Armenian and especially the Karabakh armies stagnated at the level of the mid-1990s, not modernizing either technically, organizationally or tactically.

As a result, outdated methods of warfare have proven to be ineffective. And only Russia's intervention ultimately helped to end this conflict. By preventing it from turning into a terrible humanitarian disaster. With the capture of all of Karabakh by Azerbaijani troops and the total exodus of the Armenian civilian population from there.
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  1. +11
    24 November 2020 12: 11
    And only Russia's intervention ultimately helped to end this conflict.
    It would be more correct to say that the conflict has been suspended, but not ended ...
    1. +14
      24 November 2020 12: 20
      The end of the conflict depends on the length of stay of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transcaucasia. Last time, the contingent stood for 150 years with a short break in 1918-1920, and there was peace in the Caucasus.
      1. +1
        24 November 2020 12: 23
        And now, up to 5 years, and there, as they say, we'll see if Russian peacekeepers are needed or not ... But the issue has not been resolved with the NKR
        1. +7
          24 November 2020 13: 00
          In 5 years, the Azerbaijani army will become stronger than before the war (it will repair captured equipment, buy new ones), and the Armenian army will remain weaker than before the war (they lost a lot of equipment, expenses on refugees, economic and political crisis, etc.). If in 5 years Russia withdraws the peacekeepers, Azerbaijan can send troops to Karabakh. But will Aliyev do this? Is not a fact. Armenians live in Karabakh, and the introduction of Azerbaijani troops means a humanitarian catastrophe for the Armenian population and thousands of refugees, the howl of human rights defenders around the world. But Nakhichevan is connected with Baku by a corridor passing through the territory of Armenia, and it can block it, which does not at all meet the interests of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan can break through the corridor to Nakhichevan by force, but this is aggression against the CSTO country, with all the ensuing consequences (peace enforcement operation and the loss of a direct land transport corridor to Turkey).
          In addition, Aliyev has already announced his desire to establish good-neighborly relations with Armenia in the future, which will accelerate the economic development of the region. Armenia and Azerbaijan have tied each other hand and foot by two transport corridors, transferring security to Russia. It is possible that Russian peacekeepers in Transcaucasia will last for a long time.
          It is highly likely that Putin managed to cut the Karabakh Gordian knot.
          Pridnestrovie is next in line, after the victory of the possessed Maia Sandu in the Moldovan elections.
          1. 0
            24 November 2020 13: 08
            Armenians live in Karabakh, and the introduction of Azerbaijani troops means a humanitarian catastrophe for the Armenian population and thousands of refugees, the howl of human rights defenders around the world
            .
            ... During the war, somehow they didn’t really howl .. We’ll live and see ... Everything is changing so rapidly, today one thing, tomorrow another ... That you write correctly, but these arguments could be used by Armenia in negotiations, God knows when ..
        2. +2
          24 November 2020 18: 51
          And how can it be solved if even Armenia did not recognize the NKR.
        3. 0
          24 November 2020 21: 26
          Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
          But the issue has not been resolved with the NKR

          How can it be solved if the NKR is located on lands legally belonging to Azerbaijan? It was necessary to decide upon the division of land by the republics by the Soviets.
          1. 0
            25 November 2020 21: 32
            Armenians and Azerbaijanis, like a hundred and two hundred years ago, gladly slaughter each other, and the Russian communists are to blame for this. Well, as always... wassat
            1. +1
              25 November 2020 21: 36
              Quote: Jager
              Armenians and Azerbaijanis, like a hundred and two hundred years ago, gladly slaughter each other, and the Russian communists are to blame for this.
              Where did you see the word "communists"? At that time - the Bolsheviks led by Lenin. If Russia had not been divided into republics, Ararat had not been presented to the Turks, etc., nonsense, there would still be one country, even a federal one, but one, as it was before the revolution!
              1. 0
                9 December 2020 17: 33
                French bread crunch, communists - everything is clear
                1. 0
                  9 December 2020 19: 39
                  Quote: Jager
                  French bread crunch, communists - everything is clear
                  Judging by your post, you just do not understand anything! If you don't see, then at least try to understand that none of the former republics will be able to exist independently due to their elementary vulnerability from any more or less independent state. That's why they are torn
                  under the wing of the former enemy, although in our case there are no former, thinking that someone needs them there. And I will ask again: where did you see the communists in my post? Lenin was a Bolshevik. Wedges? laughing hi
      2. 0
        24 November 2020 21: 40
        I believe that Ilya, correctly assessing the results of the first war, was mistaken with the results of the second: the first, and second, and third, and fourth reasons for the defeat - Pashinyan! Hopefully clever Armenians understand this and Pashinyan will soon be removed and replaced reasonable the leader in a legal and bloodless way without unnecessary excitement. Although it is difficult to do this in the Caucasus.

        And my Armenian neighbor also said that he does not believe in friendship, cohabitation of Azerbaijanis with Armenians, mutual hatred - forever and the war will continue as soon as Armenia gets stronger.
    2. +3
      24 November 2020 12: 21
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      It would be more correct to say that the conflict has been suspended, but not ended ...

      It is not in the interests of the Armenians to renew it. Precisely, they will only get worse now, and even more so in the future.
      The star of the Armenians went down without ever rising.
      1. -1
        24 November 2020 12: 26
        I agree, but what's next? As long as the Russian peacekeepers are in the NKR, there will be silence, the term of the mandate will expire, then what? Will not be renewed.?
        1. +1
          24 November 2020 12: 42
          Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
          Will not be renewed.?

          hi The question is not for me.
          But I think it will most likely be extended. The conflict will be frozen.
          1. 0
            24 November 2020 13: 14
            The conflict will be frozen.
            In other words, they will not complete.
            1. 0
              25 November 2020 21: 33
              it is impossible to complete, alas. It can only be preserved
    3. +2
      24 November 2020 12: 22
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      It would be more correct to say that the conflict has been suspended, but not ended.

      Fading, but smoldering.
      1. 0
        26 November 2020 13: 14
        It looks like the plan is as follows: in five years, as long as the Russians will be in Karabakh, the Armenians remaining there will move to .... yes somewhere (most likely to Armenia and Russia), and Karabakh will finally go to Azerbaijan. IMHO of course.
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    3. DAQ
      +5
      24 November 2020 12: 38
      the first reason is you

      And the second is their dreams (for international support)
      The third reason "was Nichol"
      Who stupidly went to power

      4th reason was naked (no money, no weapons)
      And the 5th flying mess (bayraktar and other birds)

      what
  3. +7
    24 November 2020 12: 13
    Why did Armenia lose?

    because she has no money for independence. it is very expensive. It's expensive to have an army. It's very expensive to have your own opinion. Therefore, Karabakh was not recognized by Armenia. Because there are no pennies and prospects.
    The mad tribe on the outskirts has the same trouble. As in gabunostan, as in the Baltic states. Insolvent. Beggars and ambition. It is logical - that there is no independence there and it does not smell.

    PS I talked with an Armenian here - in general, they would have won, if only. They (who live in Russia) did not even understand anything.

    1. +1
      24 November 2020 12: 25
      because she has no money for independence. it is very expensive. It's expensive to have an army.
      Here the Arapotsriots foaming at the mouth argued that Armenia's GDP is as much as 6,5% per year !!!!!!!!!!!!! Something not to see either one or the other. And in the article, the reasons are sometimes beguiled.Especially the first and fourth
  4. +6
    24 November 2020 12: 23
    Everything is probably correct in the article.
    It was not felt that the Armenians were repelling the blow with the forces of a trained regular army. there are nuances that are understandable to military specialists.
    For example, there was no military camouflage for targets hit by UAVs and not only them, the use of UAV targets to open an air defense system is widely known, it was successfully used by Israel in 1982 in Lebanon, for the Armenian military it was a surprise, which means it was not reliable reconnaissance, both radio-technical and visual at forward posts such as VNOS, and intelligence, etc.
    The Armenians hoped for the mountainous terrain and their trenches, this is important, but completely insufficient in modern warfare.
    1. -2
      24 November 2020 22: 57
      Quote: Alekseev
      The Armenians hoped for the mountainous terrain and their trenches, this is important, but completely insufficient in modern warfare.

      An alarming signal for Eun, he also has "Scuds" (their analogues), but he will shoot medium and short-range ballistic missiles with special warheads ...
      1. -2
        25 November 2020 02: 03
        Quote: Lara Croft
        An alarming signal for Eun, he also has "Scuds" (their analogues), but he will shoot medium and short-range ballistic missiles with special warheads ...

        If he tries, South Korea will become an island separated from China by a strait. And he knows it.
        1. -2
          25 November 2020 07: 45
          Quote: Nagan
          Quote: Lara Croft
          An alarming signal for Eun, he also has "Scuds" (their analogues), but he will shoot medium and short-range ballistic missiles with special warheads ...

          If he tries, South Korea will become an island separated from China by a strait. And he knows it.

          But on the other hand, in the DPRK, it is also a mountainous area, like in the NKR, which (mountainous area) the Azerbaijanis did not take under their control ...
  5. +9
    24 November 2020 12: 27
    The Aras lost not yesterday, but long before that. As soon as they started yelling that they were also ceevropes. Rotten, corrupt liberalism and tolerance are not capable of defending national interests.
    1. 0
      24 November 2020 12: 29
      Rotten, corrupt liberalism and tolerance are not capable of defending national interests.

      but on the forums we can rewind with a bang. And who defends national interests (including the military, who have sworn and vowed to defend the state system and the country) - those can be called a guardian and the trick is in the bag.

    2. +2
      25 November 2020 02: 18
      Quote: denis obuckov
      The Macs lost not yesterday, but long before that. As soon as they started yelling that they were also ceevropes.

      Even earlier, when they built fortifications in Karabakh (well, or Aptsaxe, if you like it more). Some trenches, at best, dugouts in 3 rolls. There are no concrete bins. Obviously, the concrete went to the same place as the cement from construction sites in Spitak back in Soviet times. High-rise buildings, designed for a big earthquake, collapsed because there was more sand in the "concrete" than cement, which went to the construction of private houses around. But under Soviet rule, at least the appearance of concrete was made, but without it they did not bother with it.
  6. +1
    24 November 2020 12: 41
    how everything is started ...
    26 years ago, even strange troops of the Soviet Army were stationed in the Caucasus. and fought? maybe someone will say their knowledge?
    1. -1
      24 November 2020 16: 35
      Quote: antivirus
      how everything is started ...
      26 years ago, even strange troops of the Soviet Army were stationed in the Caucasus. and fought? maybe someone will say their knowledge?

      It was so. I remember how, even under Yazov, I brought to the l / s an order that conscripts who voluntarily submit a report to Nagorno-Karabakh would receive rations like crickets. I even found a flyer who wrote a report.
    2. -2
      24 November 2020 23: 04
      Quote: antivirus
      26 years ago, even strange troops of the Soviet Army were stationed in the Caucasus. and fought?

      Calculate purely arithmetically, what CA could be on the territory of the already independent Azerbaijan in 1994?
      And in the article not a word about SA ...
      1. -1
        25 November 2020 09: 12
        "avatar-screensaver", amerskaya actress - that says it all.
        Age does not allow us to know about the strangeness of politics in the USSR after the collapse.
        old age is not an achievement, it is a minimization of losses. and youth?
  7. +8
    24 November 2020 12: 48
    Quote: s-t Petrov
    PS I talked with an Armenian here - in general, they would have won, if only. They (who live in Russia) did not even understand anything.

    I also talked with the Armenian who lives with us. He says that Russia robbed them twice - after the First World War and now. And they lived with the Turks for a thousand years, and if not for Russia, then everything would be fine.
    1. +2
      24 November 2020 12: 54
      this is probably why Armenia has what it has.
      The bad thing floating in my head has never led to good
    2. 0
      25 November 2020 21: 41
      So one answer - it's time to go home.
  8. +4
    24 November 2020 13: 09
    It's just that in the first Karabakh war, Yeltsin's criminal Power helped the Armenians, and now the Russians got away from this problem, and the result was not long in coming.
  9. +9
    24 November 2020 13: 11
    Because you cannot be a little - a little pregnant, and the Armenians have been trying all the time, we are at war, but not quite, we are with Russia, but not very much.
  10. +2
    24 November 2020 13: 18
    Quote: s-t Petrov
    ... I talked to an Armenian here - in general, they would have won, if only if only. They (who live in Russia) did not even understand anything.

    Likewise, at first he filled up victorious videos, and then fell silent.
  11. +1
    24 November 2020 13: 27
    Azerbaijan in the 90s fought against well-trained, high-quality armed punitive detachments, with the active support of Soviet units. Before the start of active hostilities, in 90, even hunting weapons were taken from the population. This proves that everything that happened was planned from above. The heroism of Azerbaijanis is proved by the Agderin operation. Who is in the subject will understand, and who is not in the subject will google. But unfortunately, Azerbaijan stood against a very insidious, cruel and murderous enemy who was able to enlist the support of Russia and Iran through the influence of the diaspora. But justly restored. And then it will be just like that. Who doesn't like it can bang their head against the wall
  12. +3
    24 November 2020 13: 33
    And all this is a typical example of an attitude in the style of "yes it can't be, because we have such a strong defense."
    They squeezed and gnawed. "To help" ? Whom to help - a sovereign state? Isn't the joke of sovereignty that your problems only concern you?
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    1. The comment was deleted.
  14. +3
    24 November 2020 15: 18
    Don't go to the fortuneteller. Aziki felt sorry for the neighbors. They were allowed to live until everything settled there in Spitak. Half a million homeless. Well, here we are, it's time to know when to stop.
  15. +6
    24 November 2020 17: 51
    Polonsky built a theory, but on an incorrect initial statement. Namely, that it was the Armenians who defeated the Azerbaijani army in the first Karabakh war!
    In the first war for Karabakh, the Azerbaijanis were defeated by the allies of the Armenians with the support of the troops of the Armenians! To understand this, it is enough to know the history of the conflict and look who led the hostilities and was the main striking force of the Armenians!
    Well, the fact that the Armenians forgot for this and began to ascribe the victory to their own relatives as the most ancient people. That and that. Azerbaijanis have proved that they are not yesterday's and that there is patriotism!
  16. +5
    24 November 2020 17: 56
    Armenian political scientist Andranik Tevanyan believes that the main guarantee of victory in the last Karabakh war was that Armenia was able to turn scattered armed units into a regular army. The second Karabakh war led to the opposite result - the army split into detachments. And Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is to blame for this.

    And in 2016, when the Armenian forces were destroyed in the same way using UAVs and long-range ATGMs right in the positions, was Pashinyan also to blame? wink
    Pashinyan is to blame for paragraph 3 - because in 2016 Russia extinguished the conflict at an early stage. And on point 1, everything began long before the incumbent prime minister came to power.
  17. +3
    24 November 2020 18: 45
    An interesting question - "Why did Armenia lose?" Did she really declare war on Azerbaijan, or announced aggression from Azerbaijan? In fact, it was not a war, but the military actions of Azerbaijan against the NKR. Armenia could enter the war, abandoning the previously occupied regions of Azerbaijan, but recognizing the NKR within its existing borders, with the subsequent introduction of troops to protect the Armenian population. But her "ears" were hanging on the wall of the US Embassy, ​​and her head was "bolted" to Karabakh. Therefore, all her help turned out to be helpless. Moreover, it was her "leading and guiding" role that became the decisive factor in the disorganization of the entire defense and a consequence of the devastating defeat of the NKR.
  18. +3
    24 November 2020 18: 59
    Yes, the picture shows the answer to the title of the article - with such target designation, the Armenian soldier glows in the NVG, like a target in computer games. It seems that the guys were preparing for the war with Kataib in Beirut in the 70s, having applied the distinctive marks "friend or foe".
  19. +2
    24 November 2020 20: 05
    In the early 1990s, Azerbaijan was a weak state that had just gained sovereignty, torn apart by internal political contradictions and lacking a strong army. The only thing is that the Azerbaijani troops (due to the differences in the population of Armenia and Azerbaijan) have always outnumbered the Armenian army in terms of personnel. But the weapons were about the same. Plus, the Armenians were ideologically motivated and eager to fight for Nagorno-Karabakh. On ideology, personal courage and ability to fight, the Armenians won the first Karabakh war.
    This is the main thing. The Armenians took advantage of this in the early 90s. And they lost already then.
    History has shown that not everything is so simple. The idea of ​​a miatsum reunion did not work. Fictional stories and lies don't last long. Justice prevails. Karabakh was and is Azerbaijan.
    And now
  20. +1
    24 November 2020 21: 34
    Quote: Vladimir61
    An interesting question - "Why did Armenia lose?" Did she really declare war on Azerbaijan, or announced aggression from Azerbaijan? In fact, it was not a war, but the military actions of Azerbaijan against the NKR. Armenia could enter the war, abandoning the previously occupied regions of Azerbaijan, but recognizing the NKR within its existing borders, with the subsequent introduction of troops to protect the Armenian population. But her "ears" were hanging on the wall of the US Embassy, ​​and her head was "bolted" to Karabakh. Therefore, all her help turned out to be helpless. Moreover, it was her "leading and guiding" role that became the decisive factor in the disorganization of the entire defense and a consequence of the devastating defeat of the NKR.

    Again the "army" of this premature "nkr"? Not tired of Vladimir? You probably already write the same thing in the tenth topic) What is the army of the average Russian microdistrict?) Which is already almost in full force (at least young people) moved to bomb in a taxi and fry kebabs in the Stavropol Territory, Krasnodar Territory, etc., except of course them old people receiving money from working in Russia.
  21. +2
    24 November 2020 21: 55
    The author missed another important point, this is the influence of the "soft power" of the West. Look at how all kinds of NGOs shape the views of young people. In the Caucasus, if you don’t go to wrestling, they’ll just laugh at you in the yard, and you’ll even get fiercely. And now who has a cooler pipe, who went on vacation where, and who bought what while shopping, have raised consumers.
    Look at Ukraine, they couldn't take it, but in 20 years the West raised a whole generation in schools, which instantly changed their foundations to the promise of a sweet life
  22. -2
    24 November 2020 23: 44
    The only thing is that the Azerbaijani troops (due to the differences in the population of Armenia and Azerbaijan) have always outnumbered the Armenian army in terms of personnel. But the weapons were about the same.

    Where was it the same? Let the author google the combat strength of the ZakVO of the USSR Armed Forces, compare the numerical and combat strength of the 7th OA and the 4th OA, all strategic warehouses of the ZakVO were located in the Azerbaijan SSR, 1/2 of the combat aviation of the 34th VA and the 19th were located on its territory OA Air Defense ZakVO, a highly developed airfield network ... Armenia's Air Force was almost completely absent ...

    The formations and units of the 31st AK (Georgian SSR) and 7th OA (Armenian SSR) were reduced in composition or represented the BHVT .... yes, during the collapse of the Union, the Armenians got more V and VT than the Georgians, but this is all a drop in sea ​​compared to what went to Azerbaijan ...
    In addition, most of the military equipment (during the withdrawal of the RF WB from Georgia) was withdrawn from Georgia to Armenia, but that was already before the war on 08.08.08/2014/XNUMX ... and the quality of military equipment was even worse than that of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea in XNUMX ...
    The real 102nd WB of the RF Armed Forces in Gyumri is the remnants of the 127th MRD (reduced strength) of the 7th Army ... so that here too the military forces of Armenia were weakened ...
    Armenia could purchase for 1/4 century on military lease from the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus and from the empiricalists V and VT ...., prepare the NKR and adjacent areas in engineering terms, while negotiating with Azerbaijan on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, now Armenians have almost no trump cards ... in the negotiation process ...
    For 1/4 century, the Armenians have ceased to feel that NKR and Armenia are not two Armenians, but one whole ... a state ..
  23. +1
    25 November 2020 23: 48
    A persistent feeling of deliberate drainage was created, somewhere a week before the armistice they began to withdraw forces, and sometimes, simply abandoning equipment, they fled from their positions and obviously not for moral reasons or being surrounded and defeated, the organized resistance could still continue.
  24. 0
    26 November 2020 13: 49
    In the first war, the 366th motorized rifle regiment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation acted on the side of the Armenians, therefore they won. I didn't play in the second - that's why we lost.
  25. 0
    26 November 2020 14: 10
    It seems that the knee was put on a post for this very purpose, about ... losing Karabakh

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