Armenia: having lost a large part of Nagorno-Karabakh, how not to lose everything
The "hot" phase of the armed conflict that lasted for a month and a half in the Caucasus is over, and with very different results for its parties. While Baku is celebrating a clear victory and reveling in its own superiority over a longtime enemy, Yerevan is trying to find ways to prevent a military defeat (an attempt to defend the unrecognized republic and its own past achievements) from turning into a final collapse for the whole country.
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, declaring on the territory of Aghdam region that “the war was left behind”, did not fail to make a statement about “complete and final defeat of the Armenian army” as such. There are reports that the Azerbaijani side is transporting military equipment and weapons seized from the enemy to its home in echelons. There is indeed a rout, and it is impossible to deny it.
Nevertheless, a much greater danger for Armenia today is not an external enemy (from which it is reliably protected by membership in the CSTO and the presence of quite impressive forces of Russian peacekeepers on the demarcation line in Nagorno-Karabakh itself), but an internal discord that is tormenting the country. The confusion and horror of the first days and nights, when the entire heavy burden of military defeat and shameful surrender fell on the Armenian people, almost pushed it into the chaos of civil confrontation, which could well have turned into bloodshed not in Artsakh, but in Yerevan.
Half a step to collapse
It seemed that until the final collapse of the entire power vertical in Armenia was not even a step, but a half step. President Armen Sarkissian spoke about the need to remove the prime minister from power (who signed the "obscene peace" - a quote from those who spoke on the square in the center of Yerevan) and early parliamentary elections. One after another, resignations of members of the Pashinyan cabinet and other high-ranking officials rained down. The departure from their posts of Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, Emergencies Minister Felix Tsolakyan, Adviser to Parliament Speaker Ashot Gulyan, Defense Minister and others looked like the beginning of a process of complete disintegration.
And then a message arrived that Pashinyan was simply going to be physically eliminated, “executed for treason” (either some “oppositionists”, or participants in hostilities, or both in the community). This was avoided. I believe that luckily for Armenia itself
Why “fortunately”? The best thing about this was said by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who bluntly stated that Armenia, "under the threat of a resumption of hostilities", simply "cannot afford" any revolutions, overthrow of the authorities and similar internal cataclysms.
"Suicide for Armenia"
Especially dangerous will be a situation in which, after a hypothetical coup, power will be seized by a conditional "war party", eager for an immediate and decisive revenge. Vladimir Putin, not at all embarrassed in expressions, called this option "suicide for Armenia."
It's hard to disagree with him. In the current situation: Yerevan has no chances of military success. Not the slightest. But any rash step on his part will finally untie the hands of Baku and Ankara. There they are just waiting for an excuse to finish what they have begun by hoisting the Azerbaijani flag over Stepanakert. And that's at least.
Pashinyan's "saving" plan - how not to lose everything, having lost a large part of Karabakh
Under these conditions, Pashinyan's expressed intention to remain in power, at least for some more time, is perhaps the most acceptable option for the country. Moreover, the prime minister has already announced a certain "salvific" plan to overcome the acute internal crisis.
He called it in the best traditions of American students and pupils "road map", but that's not the point. Among the proposed priority measures, summarized by the head of government in 15 main points, there are also quite sensible, even, one might say, vital.
Restoration of the destroyed (first of all - residential buildings). Caring for the families of the dead servicemen and those of them who became crippled in this war. Release from captivity of all compatriots who found themselves there. Returning to the place of permanent residence of the refugees and (again) providing them with all possible support. These intentions can rally people and make people think about something other than the severity of defeat.
True, the program also contains enough general and openly populist points. Kind of "overcoming the coronavirus." "Economic recovery and revival". Pashinyan's so beloved "fight against corruption". And even "solutions to demographic problems." But this is obviously a necessary background. So to speak, the general outline.
Better late than never
Naturally, the prime minister (trying to stay in power) started talking about a "comprehensive program for the restoration, reform and modernization of the armed forces." Actually, I should have thought about this before the war, not after. But it's better later than never.
The main thing is that the dream of military revenge does not turn into a "fix idea" for both the Armenian authorities and all its people. In such a case, the country will definitely embark on a path leading to its complete collapse.
For Russia, this will mean a much more difficult and bloody war in the Caucasus than the conflict that it has just managed to resolve with such difficulty.
- Alexander Kharaluzhny
- Russian President's website
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