The surrender of Karabakh is a disaster for Armenia
It is very difficult to talk to a person whose soul has been stolen. How difficult it is to talk to someone who has been deprived of their faith. And how extremely difficult it is to negotiate with a person who understands that she has been betrayed, but does not realize who. It is even more difficult to conduct polemics with someone who does not see the obvious and believes only that he is told by politicians and jingoistic patriots from the stands at rallies.
Such a person cannot accept that the Artsakh army was practically defeated and that the last lines of defense were already held by vaults and militias. He also does not believe that the Azerbaijani army was stronger, better equipped and prepared for war. The provocations of the Armenian prime minister towards Baku were quickly forgotten. Nor is it recalled what happened in the first days of the war on both sides in relation to the prisoners and the wounded, who were mercilessly finished off contrary to all military laws. This is how a person is arranged: he remembers the evil that is done to him, and forgets the horrors that he himself did.
I had a long conversation with just such an interlocutor. I listened to him and was amazed at how much propaganda and constant lies that penetrate into his head from TV screens, from radio broadcasts, from Internet sites or from stands in city squares can change a person. It was as if I was talking to a person who was completely unfamiliar to me, and not at all to someone whom I had known well for many years until that day. It is these real excerpts from our conversation (with his permission) that I propose today to comprehend the readers. Especially to those who are very affected. Maybe someone else will start thinking: not only in Armenia, but also in Russia.
I perfectly understand that any of my words will definitely be criticized or doubted. Therefore, having decided today to voice the real position of the Yerevan street (and my interlocutor as well), I will give you similar words - the famous Armenian oppositionist, presidential candidate in Armenia in the 2013 elections, political prisoner (2016-2018) Andrias Ghukasyan (interview to journalists "Novaya Gazeta", Yerevan). In Yerevan today, the majority of the citizens who took to the streets are practically in solidarity with him.
Myths from the streets of Yerevan
I'll start with an unpleasant topic for many. The weakness of the Armenian army and the complete unpreparedness of Artsakh for war. Even today, when a military defeat has become a reality, when this obvious fact is already pointed out by the Armenian officers and generals themselves, the people the myth of Armenia's military power still lives.
“There was a tenacious myth about an invincible army. To criticize the army is to pour water on the enemy's mill. And - such thoughts can only be expressed by defeatists. So it was thought. "
Armenia is powerful and could defend itself. People continue to believe that their army is capable of independently defending the state from any aggressor. As well as the fact that the war (which they lost) was to be won.
«We have a powerful and heroic armywhich is many times superior in professionalism to the army of Azerbaijan, therefore both the borders of Armenia and the line of contact in Artsakh are reliably protected. "
Russia sold Smerchi to Azerbaijan. It cannot do without accusations towards Russia and Belarus about the armament of the Azerbaijani army. Azerbaijan showed many videos about the operation of loitering ammunition, but the main role in the destruction of the enemy's manpower was played not by them, but by the Russian Smerchi and Belarusian Polonaises.
Russia sold the wrong thing to Armenia weapon. The objection that Armenia also bought weapons from Russia always follows approximately the same answer:
“The Russians sold us weapons that were expensive but unnecessary for the war. Like Su-30MK planes or Iskander missiles.
But didn't they choose the weapons that were bought by the Armenians? It would seem, who forbade Armenia to buy the same "Smerchi" or "Buratino"?
Killed by Russian-made "Tornadoes".
“Right now, during these 44 days of the war, at least half of the dead soldiers have been killed by Russian Smerch multiple launch rocket systems, and cities have been destroyed by Belarusian Polonaise systems.”
Russia was obliged to defend Artsakh. If someone thinks that among the Armenian political elite there was no understanding that the defense system is poorly organized and is in approximately the same condition as it was in the 90s, then he is deeply mistaken. There was an understanding that the territory of Armenia itself, thanks to the Russian military base, was protected. But the absolutely delusional (considering the fact that Artsakh was never recognized by Armenia and did not become a part of it) idea that Russia would protect this region also spread.
Armenia entrusted Russia to defend itself from Turkey.
“Armenia largely entrusted its security to Russia in terms of protection from Turkey. Armenia provided Russia with a military base on its territory - in Gyumri ... While Turkey and Russia were opponents, not partners in the international arena, this situation allowed Armenia to save money.
Shushi passed. Probably the most painful for the Armenians is the fact of the surrender of Shushi. Almost everyone with whom I talked is sure that the city was not taken, but it was surrendered to please the Azerbaijanis.
“Armenia was losing the war, but Azerbaijan has exhausted its resources. Shushi was surrendered deliberately in order to adjust the situation to the requirements of Azerbaijan. Before that we were told three times that the Armenian army controls Shushi. The last time I heard that was on November 9th. "
Shushi was taken away by politicians.
“But at the same time, people called their relatives who serve in the army, and on November 9 they were still in Shushi. They replied that they were keeping him under control. And then they came out not because the Azerbaijanis knocked them out, but because such a political decision was made. Fights for Shushi would continue to this day. "
Azerbaijan attacked unexpectedly. Another point that should be clarified for the Armenians. This is the question of the surprise attack by Azerbaijan and the unexpectedness of the war itself. This is what Ghukasyan spoke about:
“Pashinyan knew about the start of hostilities before September 27. He himself spoke about it publicly. But he did not announce the training camp for the reservists. Even knowing that war was inevitable, he did not begin additional fortification work. If he knew that Azerbaijan had drones, it was necessary to create additional shelters for equipment and people, long-term firing points, natural barriers, especially in the Dzhebrail direction. Nothing of the kind has been done. "
As can be seen from the words of the prominent Armenian oppositionist, the war was unexpected only for those who fought. For those who defended Artsakh. With the hope that you just need to delay the enemy offensive for some time, which will be needed for the advance of the Armenian army to the front line.
But this is not all that is important to know for those who want to understand the reasons for the defeat. Precisely the defeat of the Armenians in Artsakh.
Pashinyan: a chronology of betrayal
It was possible not only to avoid the war, but also to stop it on conditions acceptable to Yerevan.
We talk all the time about how generals, officers and soldiers acted in this war. We analyze the state of the armies, the training of weapons and equipment. But we are completely unaware of the actions that were taken in the silence of the government offices and by Prime Minister Pashinyan himself. And this is no less exciting activity than the analysis of tactics and strategy of battles.
I well remember the opinions of Russian political scientists and experts about the loss of Russia's influence in this region at the beginning of the war. But I remember just as well the surprise of these people when out of nowhere appeared a peace agreement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia. We’ll talk about this from nowhere.
For this, I will quote statements from the Facebook page of the ex-Ambassador of the Republic of Armenia to the Vatican, Portugal and the Order of Malta, candidate historical Mikael Minosyan. Why him? Yes, simply because it was he who was the first of the Armenian diplomats to speak about the surrender of the Armenian territories to Azerbaijan and the signing of an agreement.
Mikael is rather harsh in his judgments and is not diplomatically categorical. He personally blames Nikol Pashinyan for the death of Armenian soldiers and civilians in Artsakh. Moreover, he exposes Pashinyan's crimes and his betrayal, which was committed not at once, but gradually. It was a long treacherous process, the chronicle of which we will now reproduce.
“You are claiming that war was inevitable. No! The war started because you did everything to make the negotiations fail and realized the main dream of the enemy: to make the world understandable about his desire to start a war. You said that the negotiations are pointless, provoking hostilities! "
In my articles I have repeatedly stated that Baku "exceeded all its plans in this war." The success of the operations, it seems to me, even somewhat frightened the Azerbaijani generals, and even President Aliyev himself. Partially, my guess is confirmed by Minosyan. After all, it is quite difficult to explain this statement otherwise:
« On the second day of the war you were offered to resign in favor of the candidate for the post of prime minister who would be from your own team. In return, the mediators ensured that the war would end if negotiations resumed. You refused. "
How difficult it is to explain the second statement of the Armenian diplomat. The situation looks too fantastic. Baku, moving deep into the territory occupied by Armenians, offers negotiations? But, if you look not from a mathematical point of view, but from a military point of view, everything falls into place. It was in the first days of the war that the battles were the most fierce and bloody. It was at this time that the scales were still fluctuating:
« An hour later you were offered the following: if you doubt that after your resignation the war will end, then it will end right now. Then you resign and the parties return to negotiations. You gave up on that too. "
Even after four days of fighting, the opponents, despite the huge losses on both sides, were not sure of their victory. The war was clearly taking on a protracted nature, which threatened to collapse the economy for both countries.
« On the fifth day of the warWhen a number of strategic and tactical strongholds had already fallen, the mediators proposed to surrender one area around these positions and return to the negotiating table. You refused. "
But then the games began, which I would call catch-up. Pashinyan all the time tried to catch up with the proposals that had been made to him before, but they became irrelevant due to the changing military situation in the region. War does not tolerate long deliberation. Strategists can ponder. And tacticians must make decisions quickly, stopping danger or building on the success of combat operations.
« 20 October you agreed to the previous conditions, but it was too late. You were offered to surrender the four districts already out of control, on the borders of which peacekeepers will be deployed, and the Armenians of Artsakh will remain Karvachar and Lachin. You refused. "
Pashinyan's indecision, or perhaps just fear (that, having agreed to surrender 4 districts, he could lose the prime minister's chair) led to the fact that another district was captured. The Azerbaijani army loomed the prospect of fulfilling an old dream - the liberation of Shushi or at least getting free entry there.
« 22 October you agreed to the previous conditions, but it was too late. You were offered to agree to 5 regions in exchange for the deployment of peacekeeping forces along the line, free exit and entry of Azerbaijanis to Shushi. You refused. "
The prospect of the liberation of Shushi captured the minds of the people of the republic. Today everyone understands the significance of this city for both peoples. And now President Aliyev has become a hostage of this idea. His people would not have understood the president if he refused to storm Shushi. But let's get back to what happened during this period in Pashinyan's office.
«23 October you agreed to the previous conditions, but it was too late. An offer was made - 5 regions and Shushi. There was no longer a question of status, and a return to the borders of Artsakh. You refused. "
Even in the face of a clear victory for Azerbaijan, the diplomats continued their work. The war needed to be stopped. The closer Aliyev's army approached the borders of Armenia, the more acute the problem of its continuation became. The President of Azerbaijan was very careful to ensure that nothing could force Russia to enter the war in accordance with the CSTO agreement.
« 7 November you agreed to the old conditions, but it was too late. At that time, two days before the surrender, it was proposed - 5 districts, Shushi, Karvachar and a small part of Lachin. You refused. "
I specifically described in such detail what happened “behind closed doors”. This is my answer to those who periodically cried that the Russian Foreign Ministry was inactive. For the attentive reader, who closely followed the development of events, after the first excerpt it became clear who were these strange mediators who could contact the Prime Minister of Armenia within an hour.
"Eventually, 10 November you, like a thief, signed the shameful document of surrender, thereby betraying the Motherland. You turned down the opportunity to take back the borders of Karabakh. You gave up the idea of not letting Azerbaijanis back to Artsakh. And in the end he agreed. Agreed to hand over all 7 districts, Hadrut and a significant part of the Martuni district. I agreed without any status and agreement on the part of Artsakh, without the opportunity to fix it in the future. "
General Frost betrayed
You should not look for the causes of your troubles in the intrigues of others.
I understand how difficult it is to say to yourself that you are personally to blame for everything, and not someone else. There are very few people who can do this. It is much easier to blame someone else for your failures. Or even something. I remembered about "General Moroz" as the main reason for the defeat of the Nazis near Moscow.
But this must be done. First of all, in order to think about the future. Today everyone understands that the Armenians will not give up their dream of regaining control over Karabakh. It is also understandable that the Azerbaijanis will do everything to keep Karabakh with them. This is the situation not only today, but also in the future.
The question arises about ordinary people. About those who fled from Karabakh, who destroyed their homes. How to deal with them? An example was shown again by Shusha. Even if it is not a lot, just a few hundred, but the Armenians are returning there. It means they believe that the peacekeepers will protect them. And taking into account the economic situation in Armenia, many simply cannot afford to settle down in a new place. There are simply no funds and no hope for state aid.
Hope for Russia
Moreover, I think that it is worth thinking about transferring the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of Russia. At least for a while. 50-100 years old. Nominally, this will be the territory of Azerbaijan, but in fact, Russia will maintain order there. Only in this case, both peoples will be able to peacefully coexist in this region.