Military Review

Who will contain Russia: after the RAND headquarters game, the military strengthening of Romania begins


The United States is developing a strategy to combat Russia, relying on an extensive network of think tanks. One of them is the RAND organization, which is developing programs to contain the Russian Federation on orders from the White House and the Pentagon. Recommendations from one of the studies seem to be starting to come true.

Russia is too strong

On October 13 this year, RAND published a report on the results of the headquarters game with a scenario of a military crisis, which was held in June 2018. As explained in the report, it was found necessary to make significant adjustments to NATO's strategy of actions in the Black Sea.

Russian military investments in the Black Sea theater of operations since 2014 have fundamentally changed the security map of the region [...] The game and related research have highlighted the relative strength of Russia's position

- believes RAND, considering it necessary "to expand the existing defense and deterrence measures."

In anticipation of the crisis, the United States and its allies must consider measures to address regional military imbalances

- explained in the report.

According to the results of the game, RAND believes that among the five Black Sea states that can become a potential buffer against Russia, in fact, one can hope for an active role of only one.

Who will contain Russia: after the RAND headquarters game, the military strengthening of Romania begins


Five allies, but only one hope

As noted by RAND, Turkey's position is of fundamental importance "because of its naval capabilities and responsibility for the straits in accordance with the Montreux Convention." However, it will be "reluctant to resist Russian aggression" due to cooperation with Moscow in Syria and dependence on Russian gas imports.

Sofia, which is “vulnerable to [the impact of] Russian incentives and coercion,” may support the Kremlin, otherwise “infuriate Moscow,” which in particular will hurt the Bulgarian energy sector.

The military potential of Georgia and Ukraine has been significantly undermined as a result of conflicts with Russia

- RAND assesses the importance of the other two Black Sea countries, considering that their role is limited to a pro-Western position and participation in the exercises.

As a result, there is actually only one state left to bet on, RAND believes:

Romania is likely to be willing and able to contribute to a regional military initiative in the Black Sea. Plans for ongoing military procurement, modernization and expansion [of the army and fleet] can increase Romania's contribution to the naval industry.

RAND conclusions. Two options for the development of events. The direction of the arrow indicates the source -> target of the action. The thickness of the arrow indicates the number of interactions (from 1 to 9). The color of the arrow indicates that actions are preferable for NATO, blue - for the benefit of NATO, red - for harm.

Against the background of this withdrawal, the strengthening of the combat capabilities of the Romanian troops in the Black Sea began, the strengthening of Romania in military terms. On October 16, the US State Department decided on the possibility of selling to Bucharest two batteries of the Coastal Defense System (CDS) with Naval Strike Missile (NSM) anti-ship missiles. The deal should be worth $ 300 million.

The American authorities are attentive to the results of the staff games and promptly respond to the recommendations made by think tanks.

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  1. Cowbra
    Cowbra 21 October 2020 05: 17
    WASHINGTON, October 21 - RIA Novosti. The United States is exploring the possibility of maintaining the presence of a mechanized brigade near Russia's borders not on a rotational basis, but on a permanent basis, said US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.

    This. Mechanized brigade. The Kaliningrad group will eat it, in principle, without noticing. and Kaliningrad ... Far from all of Russia. if briefly)
    1. Olgovich
      Olgovich 21 October 2020 08: 10
      Quote: Cowbra
      This. Mechanized brigade. The Kaliningrad group will eat it, in principle, without noticing

      But the weapons are stored for many brigades: they will only have to transfer the egg composition, which has already been there on a rotational basis. It's not that simple ...

      In anticipation of the crisis, the United States and its allies must consider measures to address regional military imbalances

      Yeah, the balance, in their language, is a weak Russian fleet after the collapse of the USSR in the Black Sea with a single old submarine.

      Russia has not exceeded anything, but has just begun to restore what it had earlier there.

      A missile defense with cruise missiles attacks in Romania and NATO airfields there and in Bulgaria with aircraft based there, this is a real imbalance.
      1. dorz
        dorz 21 October 2020 08: 16
        Last week in Germany, a secret exercise was held to practice military operations using nuclear weapons, writes Bild. They were called "Steadfast Afternoon" and took place at Nerfenich airbase with the participation of the German Air Force and their NATO allies.

        Were involved fighter-bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, the main purpose of the exercises - to practice the defense of Germany using atomic bombs.

        NATO tanks 15 kilometers from Belarus, strategic flights over the Black Sea during a meeting of the presidents, all this suggests that they have completely ceased to respect and fear us.
  2. andr327
    andr327 21 October 2020 05: 31
    a mistake by the RANDa experts. There is a sixth, more effective component that can stop Russia - this is the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Well, the United States simply sells its weapons to someone who has something left in the treasury.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 21 October 2020 06: 26
    Who will contain Russia
    It turns out that only Romania can provide NATO with "invaluable" and effective assistance in the Black Sea. Romania at one time provided effective assistance to fascist Germany, now it's the turn to help the Americans. In Ukraine and Georgia, of course, they will be very offended that they are perceived as an empty application, but such is the fate of the traitorous states. If necessary, they use it, they throw it away as unnecessary, which will obviously end in the future.
    1. Pashhenko Nikolay
      Pashhenko Nikolay 21 October 2020 08: 15
      The one who betrayed once, will betray the next time and more than once.
    2. Simon
      Simon 22 October 2020 19: 32
      Apparently the Romanians no longer remember that the Soviet soldiers did not take Romanian soldiers prisoner during the Second World War, since they fought more with the civilian population than with our troops, that is, they were cruel to our population. Apparently they do not learn history and do not remember about it.
  4. mark2
    mark2 21 October 2020 06: 53
    From the results of the headquarters game I understood the following: NATO believes that it can defeat Russia, but at the same time Russia can cause unacceptable damage, which does not suit NATO members.
    If NATO's attitude to the war does not change, then it will be enough to maintain the level of unacceptability in Europe and the war will not be enough.
  5. Tusv
    Tusv 21 October 2020 07: 18
    There are a lot of books. And about the fun with the prefix de not a word. However, the primary goal. Do not be afraid gentlemen Romanians. Chick and you are at the management of the XNUMXth cauldron in Beelzebub County
  6. Gunther
    Gunther 21 October 2020 08: 04
    Quote: Author
    On October 16, the US State Department decided on the possibility of selling two batteries of the Coastal Defense System to Bucharest ...

    quite in the spirit of the Naglo-Saxons, with one blow of two birds with one stone - they will ease the budget of Romania by 300 million and build a buffer from the bones of Orthodox Romanians.
    1. Levius
      Levius 22 October 2020 19: 03
      You were wrong about the last one. The Orthodox were knocked out there by the Turks by the 16th-17th centuries. And the last was the Orthodox voivode Vladimir, who in the west was nicknamed the Dragon or Dracula in the local. Dada he is. He just started playing in a multi-vector approach and ended badly ........ In general, the story is cyclical. And the Romanians are gypsies who occupied the empty territory.
    2. Simon
      Simon 22 October 2020 19: 34
      And I think that Romanians are more Catholics than Orthodox!
      1. Liam
        Liam 22 October 2020 19: 40
        Quote: Simon
        And I think that Romanians are more Catholics than Orthodox!

        The most common religious trend in Romania is Orthodoxy, according to the 2002 national census, 86,7% of the total population of the country classified themselves as Orthodoxy.

        The overwhelming majority of Orthodox Romanians belong to the Romanian Orthodox Church.

        Other Christian denominations have a significantly smaller number of adherents - Catholics of the Latin rite about 4,7% of the population, Greek Catholics - 0,9%, Protestants - 6,5%. About 67 thousand people, mainly ethnic Turks living in the Dobrudja region, declared themselves as Muslims. During the census, 6 people identified themselves as professing Judaism, 179 people declared atheistic (non-religious)
  7. Pereira
    Pereira 21 October 2020 08: 18
    Lived. The fate of the planet depends on Romania.
  8. TermNachTer
    TermNachTer 21 October 2020 09: 18
    Yes, Romanians are still those warriors)))) if mattress makers rely only on them, on the Black Sea - this pleases, they hope in vain.
    1. iouris
      iouris 21 October 2020 11: 32
      Quote: TermNachTER
      Yes, Romanians are still those warriors

      So are the Azerbaijanis. However, the hostilities are conducted by drones that are controlled from somewhere ... If you do not hit the control points and suppliers, then any "Romania" that you do not mind, can reduce the potential to a critical level. Technology...
      1. TermNachTer
        TermNachTer 21 October 2020 12: 12
        As they say in Odessa, this is a big difference. Azerbaijanis and Armenians are fighting among themselves, let's say, too, the soldiers are not so hot. If you served in the Soviet Army, then you know what I mean. And the Romanians are going to fight with Russia - this is already a little "overkill"))))
  9. TAMBU
    TAMBU 21 October 2020 11: 44
    judging by the schemes - Moldova is finished ...
    1. ZEMCH
      ZEMCH 22 October 2020 14: 44
      Quote: TAMBU
      judging by the schemes - Moldova is finished ...

      The same conclusion ((elections are being prepared there on November 1, apparently, RAND does not publish all analytics))