Military Review

There is an exit. Iran waits for arms embargo to be lifted

29

Source: vestikavkaza.ru


History of economic wars


The first time Iran ran into US sanctions back in November 1979, when employees of the American embassy were taken hostage in Tehran. In this situation, international law considers such attacks invariably as aggressive acts capable of provoking a war. Tehran refused tough demands to release the prisoners. From that moment the sanctions era began for the country. The United States had enough levers for pressure: 12 billion dollars of Iran were immediately frozen in American banks, hundreds of citizens were deported, all trade channels were closed. In 1980, it almost came to a real military conflict, when Washington first broke off diplomatic relations, and later the Carter administration developed detailed plans for mining ports, organizing a naval blockade, and air strikes on Iranian cities and oil fields. The USSR intervened in time in the aggressive plans of the United States, a full-scale war was avoided, although the Pentagon made forceful attempts to rescue its own diplomats. The special operation organized for the liberation suffered a crushing failure, and the day of the American assault on April 12 became a national holiday for the Iranians. As a result, Tehran, after 444 days of imprisonment, was forced to release the prisoners under the guarantees of US non-interference in the internal affairs of the republic.

However, American vindictiveness seems to know no bounds. The economic sanctions regime introduced by the United States against the Islamic Republic is based on a developed legislative framework, which has a three-tier structure, the basis of which is the D'Amato Act of 1996, the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act (CISADA) 2010. Since then, the United States has each year extended restrictions on the republic, key among which are bans on economic activity “between the American and Iranian parties, including a ban on American financial institutions from servicing the accounts of Iranian government organizations or individuals, issuing letters of credit, providing loans, making deposits. to Iranian banks and conducting transaction operations with the participation of Iranian capital or with the help of Iranian financial institutions. "


Source: cdn.iz.ru

In addition to money, American congressmen, together with the Europeans, have restricted Iranians from import weaponsthat Tehran felt already during the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1989. The republic did not have its own weapons, it was necessary to use the legacy of the United States, which needed to somehow be repaired and equipped with something. I had to organize secret negotiations with ... the Americans (the initiators of the sanctions) on the supply of anti-tank missiles and spare parts with aircraft. Business and civil servants in the United States were not at all averse to making extra money on exclusive secret arms sales to Iran and attracted the second irreconcilable enemy of Iran, Israel, to mediate. Now this история known as "Irangate". She made a lot of noise and showed, on the one hand, Iran's diplomatic flexibility, and on the other, the duplicity and venality of the capitalist West of that time. However, the situation with the West since then, if it has changed, is not important.

The following years for Iran passed in a state of oblivion and struggle with the consequences of economic sanctions. And only in 2006, purposeful work began to overcome the country's technological backwardness, primarily in relation to weapons. 14 years ago, Iran began to actively acquire dual-use technologies, equipment and materials abroad in order to provide its military-industrial complex and related industries with modern developments in areas such as the design and production of gas turbines, aviation and rocket engines, liquid and solid rocket fuel, composite materials, as well as in metallurgy, metalworking and others. Washington was well aware of this work, and in 2010, Barack Obama sanctioned Law No. 2194, aimed at isolating the country from Russia and China. In addition, the Europeans joined the pressure. The main budget-forming sectors of the Iranian economy were affected by the sanctions: oil and gas, oil refining and petrochemical, finance and banking. Iran lost income from the sale of oil, gold and precious metals, petrochemical products. In total, since 2012, Iran has lost more than $ 160 billion in oil revenues. The ban on the insurance of Iranian oil shipments by sea has reduced Iran's export revenues by more than 40%. Fall of GDP in 2012–2014 amounted to about 9%, inflation reached 27% (2013), the Iranian rial exchange rate against the dollar has more than halved. It should be noted that such unprecedented pressure had a very serious impact on Tehran, since 2013 the Iranians had to start transferring the nuclear program to a peaceful track. At least they are trying to convince the EU and the US of this. Iran is now under the "Joint Action Plan", according to which a gradual unfreezing of financial assets began six years ago. The first tranche passed in February 2014 and amounted to more than $ 500 million.

America against


In 2016, Iran announced plans to make a technological leap in the next 5 years and by 2025 to ensure economic growth at the level of 8%. This requires investment and foreign high technology. The lifting of the sanctions regime allowed Iran to hope to receive about $ 107 billion of frozen foreign assets and opened access to the latest world technologies. Tehran plans to become one of the ten largest economies in the world by 2045. In January 2017, Iran's parliament adopted another five-year economic development plan aimed at modernizing a wide range of industries and creating a “resistance economy” that is self-sufficient and able to withstand outside pressure. The necessary investments in the oil and gas sector are estimated at $ 180 billion, and in total, to implement the ambitious development goals set, Iran needs about $ 50 billion of foreign investment annually. At the same time, the Iranians remember the existence of UN Security Council Resolution No. 2015 since 2231, according to which it is possible to automatically extend the sanctions of any of the participating countries. Tehran should only resume its military nuclear program ...


Iranian missiles. Source: iran.ru

The United States was initially skeptical about easing sanctions on Iran. In many ways, the reason was in the legally justified sanctions: in order to lift the restrictions, it was necessary to amend the laws of the United States, and this is not easy. Tehran understood this very well and did not harbor any special illusions on this score. As a result, on January 29, 2017, Iran launched a ballistic missile. A few days later, Donald Trump, in his usual manner via Twitter, warned Tehran that he would not be "kind" to "playing with fire" Iran, unlike his predecessor in the presidency. Later, the United States has already officially announced the expansion of sanctions against the Islamic Republic in connection with the tests conducted by Tehran. This was the reason for the withdrawal of the Americans from the deal with Iran in 2018 unilaterally. Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany remained in the agreement. And it was precisely with the provisions of this deal that on October 18, 2020, restrictions on the purchase and sale of weapons were removed from Iran. But not completely: Tehran still cannot import technologies for the production of ballistic and cruise missiles. For several months, the United States tried in vain to introduce UN Security Council Resolution No. 2231 and to extend the sanctions against Iran. As if teasing their overseas opponent, Tehran officials declare that they do not need any imported weapons and are ready to actively export their own. Say, the era of sanctions has tempered the industry of the Islamic Republic to such an extent that it produces 90% of its own defense products.

The United States in this story decided to act individually. Since it was not possible to convince colleagues in the UN Security Council (some of them themselves under US sanctions), then Washington will put pressure on countries that have decided on military cooperation with Iran. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in this regard:

“The United States is ready to use its powers to impose sanctions on any person or organization that will materially facilitate the supply, sale or transfer of conventional weapons to and from Iran, as well as against those who provide technical training, financial support, services and other assistance related to weapons ”.

Time will show, as always, to what extent US threats can really affect the balance of power. The sales market for equipment from Iran will initially be focused on third world countries, such is the specificity of the offered range. Therefore, many of the buyers will not be interested in paying attention to any US sanctions. With such statements, Washington can once again discredit itself. It is increasingly difficult for one country, even such a superpower, to control the situation in an unpredictably changing world.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 21 October 2020 05: 49
    +1
    With such statements, Washington can once again discredit itself.
    Yes, they somehow don't give a damn about it ... So far, no one has really turned away from the United States and cooperation has not stopped ...
    1. pin_code
      pin_code 21 October 2020 06: 45
      0
      You yourself have emphasized the word "bye". any options are possible ... the more options, the greater the choice of maneuver for most powers.
      1. novel66
        novel66 21 October 2020 08: 11
        +3
        between impossible and improbable
        1. pin_code
          pin_code 6 November 2020 07: 04
          0
          Roman, they can buy for oil even from us, even from the Chinese, nothing prevents them from concluding a deal for the supply of the same fighters.
      2. faiver
        faiver 21 October 2020 08: 58
        0
        This "for now" will last for a very long time
        1. pin_code
          pin_code 6 November 2020 07: 06
          0
          why long? pay money - receive the goods. or barter. oil for aircraft. Iran has something to take besides oil.
      3. FIR FIR
        FIR FIR 21 October 2020 20: 39
        -1
        ... the more options, the more choice of maneuver for most powers.

        That's what we see how they maneuver ... so as not to fall under sanctions ...
        1. pin_code
          pin_code 6 November 2020 07: 01
          0
          give an example? Iran is deeply purple on sanctions, under the sanctions a generation has already grown up and more than one.
  2. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 21 October 2020 07: 21
    0
    Did they open swift?
  3. Greenwood
    Greenwood 21 October 2020 07: 41
    +2
    Iran must first of all modernize its aviation. If they were still able to develop armored vehicles, artillery and rocket technologies on their own, then with aviation they are full of seams. Old F-14s from the Shah's era won't get you far.
    1. novel66
      novel66 21 October 2020 08: 13
      +5
      and I like this plane
      1. Greenwood
        Greenwood 21 October 2020 13: 52
        +2
        I like him too, but his time is gone IMHO. In the United States itself, it was removed from service 15 years ago.
    2. Vladimir Mashkov
      Vladimir Mashkov 21 October 2020 11: 35
      -3
      Greenwood
      ... and air defense! Yes, Iran will now intensively begin to rearm and become less vulnerable to external threats (primarily the United States). Accordingly, the situation in the Middle East and in the world will change. And not in favor of the United States!
  4. Mytholog
    Mytholog 21 October 2020 08: 16
    +3
    showed ... the duplicity and venality of the capitalist West at that time.

    As if something has improved now)
    Only they became bolder, that's all ...
  5. Ros 56
    Ros 56 21 October 2020 08: 32
    +3
    This Nazi-fascist state called the United States has already lost all its shores and apparently it is time to put it in a stall by any means. They do not understand normal words, but understand only with a club on the neck. And if you do not fight them directly, then you must at least as in Vietnam, otherwise they will never understand what is good and what is bad. Roast cockerel should be allowed to them wherever possible.
  6. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 21 October 2020 10: 11
    +2
    Considering the rather good progress in the DPRK in terms of armaments and nuclear weapons, it may well be (and there were rumors that it has already happened in the DPRK) some kind of "sanctions cooperation" a la what happened between South Africa and Israel during the apartheid nuclear program of South Africa. Iran will invest in the DPRK with loans or some kind of tranches - the DPRK will share some technologies with it.
    The shadow sector of international relations is gradually growing, and the hysteria of the United States only contributes to this.
  7. Selevc
    Selevc 21 October 2020 12: 52
    +3
    The US itself is pushing Iran to create a nuclear bomb ... And I think that the Ayatollahs have already created it - but maybe they have not yet experienced it !!!
    Push in 2 ways:
    1) In an effort to extend the bans on the supply of conventional arms - the United States gives Iran another reason to think about - and not replace many holes in conventional defense with one big nuclear umbrella ???
    2) The United States has shown the world in practice that even small North Korea can feel completely safe with only a few nuclear weapons. And it doesn't matter how many aircraft carriers you have - 10 or 0 !!! The main thing is that if you have 0 aircraft carriers but have at least 1 hydrogen bomb, then 10 enemy aircraft carriers will never attack you !!!
    1. Selevc
      Selevc 21 October 2020 13: 09
      +2
      3) And there is also a third way of pushing Iran towards a nuclear bomb: the United States allowed Israel to make a nuclear bomb secretly - without falling under any international sanctions and conventions !!! And since one someone "the smartest" does not play according to the rules, then his neighbors - other "no less smart" ones can afford it !!!
      1. Danila46
        Danila46 22 October 2020 23: 59
        +2
        Israel did not ask anyone for permission. As they say, with a mustache. France, this is exactly the country that is NOT free at all, helped Israel to create its nuclear program. The United States did not even know about it at the time. And if they did, they would be categorically against it.
        1. Selevc
          Selevc 23 October 2020 11: 22
          -2
          Israel did not ask anyone for permission. As they say, with a mustache. France, this is exactly the country that is NOT free at all, helped Israel to create its nuclear program.
          Maybe there is no need to arrange a bazaar from international treaties ??? Did the US know about it or not? - given their great and all-powerful CIA, they could not help but know - they just pretended not to know !!!
          I do not care how much the atomic bomb cost Israel - what amount do you give them - everything is dear to them, the impression is that we are talking about buying milk in the bazaar and not about a military atom !!!

          No need to feed us with bikes - they knew they didn't know, they didn't think, they didn't want to - leave this for the kindergarten !!! The point is different - the point is that there is a civilized club of world nuclear powers and there are nuclear intriguers !!! Israel is on the second list !!! And if he imagines that he has to sneeze at the world community - then his neighbors quite think and live the same way !!! It's too late to stop Iran !!! The time to stop Iran's nuclear program has already passed !!! And there already someone will blink !!! If you don't give a damn about international laws, then train your reaction - let's see who you are first or Iran will press the button !!!
          1. The comment was deleted.
  8. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim 21 October 2020 12: 55
    -2
    Quote: Greenwood
    Old F-14s from the Shah's era won't get you far.

    So you need to help the Iranian comrades!
    The Russian military aviation industry has good export positions.
    There are no competitors.
    In fact, the French are now "waving" the United States so strongly that the Iranians will not see their proposals.
    China? Until they saturate the PLA with modern aircraft, only obsolete machines can be exported.
    And the Iranians who have been trained during the embargo on modern weapons really liked our new products, which showed their capabilities so well in the skies of Syria.
    Of course, as has happened more than once, the Zionists will raise an utter squeal.
    1. Danila46
      Danila46 23 October 2020 03: 19
      0
      feed, feed the wolf. only when he gets stronger will he bite off your balls first ...
  9. ZEMCH
    ZEMCH 21 October 2020 14: 31
    0
    This story is now known as "Irangate". She made a lot of noise and showed, on the one hand, Iran's diplomatic flexibility, and on the other, the duplicity and venality of the capitalist West of that time. However, the situation with the West since then, if it has changed, is not important.

    As always, money doesn't smell for American capital wink
    All sanctions with "loopholes"))) If they need, then the "country of the gas station" has rocket engines bypassing the sanctions, and helicopters to Afghanistan for the money of American taxpayers. Duplicity really knows no bounds
  10. alma
    alma 21 October 2020 17: 25
    17
    If access to money and technology is really opened to Iran, then there will definitely be a leap forward.
  11. Trapp1st
    Trapp1st 22 October 2020 09: 42
    +1
    The United States wants to be monopolists in trade with Iran and decide who can earn money, as in 2018 when they made exceptions to the sanctions. Just a business, by any means, under any pretext.
    1. times
      times 22 October 2020 14: 34
      15
      Quote: Trapp1st
      USA wants monopolists in trade with Iran and decide who can earn

      Yes, they used to consider this clearing as their own.
  12. NF68
    NF68 22 October 2020 16: 47
    0
    Don't relax. The USA can think of something else quickly at any time.
  13. The comment was deleted.
    1. Iris
      Iris 23 October 2020 22: 58
      +1
      Better to feed the wolf from your pack ..


      I am ashamed to ask what kind of "wolf pack" Russia is part of, and even together with Iran belay
      Generally speaking, in light of the contradictions between Iran and us, which tend to deepen, arming Iran is about the same as shooting yourself in the foot.
      But besides this, there are also objective positions of the parties: in this confrontation, the Israelis are trying to defend their country, the Iranian regime is to destroy the foreign one. Therefore, the prospect of a conflict is quite clear: sooner or later the IRGC will get full blown in the brain, without looking back at anyone. This is where our "wolf" ends. And feeding will not help - his belly is full of holes.
    2. Danila46
      Danila46 25 October 2020 10: 46
      +1
      steel, then dead ... I feel sorry for you ...