An accountant against an academician. Who is closer to the truth: Ruslan Grinberg or Alexey Kudrin?

At the foot of the mountain

Alexey Kudrin, one of the best finance ministers in stories modern Russia (according to Russian and foreign business media), has never hidden liberal views on the economy. And now, already at the post of chairman of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, he sometimes breaks through.

He remains convinced that the dominance of large state institutions in the economy is one of the main threats to our financial market. And this despite the fact that it is the state structures, including the harshly criticized industry corporations, that today are, if not the locomotives, then certainly the anchors of the domestic industry.

Yes, while they also remain consumers of colossal budgetary resources. But even for the construction of the Crimean Bridge, it was necessary to transfer purely private construction structures to a position similar to state corporations.

And if the chief state controller and accountant considers state institutions to be a real threat to the economy, it would be nice for him to remind that the presence of the state is almost felt most strongly in the financial sphere. Thus, in the top ten largest banks in the country, only one does not have a large state block of shares.

Interestingly, Kudrin called the growing US national debt no less dangerous for our financial system, once again posing as an inveterate liberal. If this is really so, then maybe it is time for us to get off as quickly as possible not from the oil, but from the dollar needle?

Without betraying himself, the current head of the Accounts Chamber of Russia is still distinguished by an excellent reaction to events, responding to them at the first call of their writing and withdrawing colleagues from purely "business" media. As soon as there was a real threat of a second quarantine due to the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Kudrin gave his operational forecast regarding the prospects for the domestic economy.

Fundamentally, in addition to the reference to the fact that the government forecast for 2021 did not take into account the second wave, Kudrin's criticism of the calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development hardly differs from the comments of the authors ("Don't make an icon out of the crisis"). However, in our notes there were no predictive percentages that Alexei Leonidovich has.

He also believes that the decline in the country's GDP this year will exceed five percent against 3,9 in the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. It is characteristic that this department has reduced the percentage of the decline quite recently, and just from the level of 5 percent, and reduced it only with an eye to the stabilization of oil prices.

There are certain doubts, adjusted for the newly growing China, that the second wave of the pandemic will lead to a really strong drop in oil prices. But it can kill the remnants of a free (one might say: liberal, according to Kudrin) economy.

Losses for small and medium-sized businesses from restrictions, according to the head of the Accounts Chamber, may turn out to be more significant than previously assumed. To put it mildly, especially considering that small business is much more dependent on the well-being of the country's population, which already now clearly leaves much to be desired.

... Or on the edge of the abyss

In our opinion, the very fact of obsessive coincidences in the figures at the Accounts Chamber and the Ministry of Economic Development is very remarkable. Moreover, Kudrin does not in the least refute the calculations of this department, although, as we see, he does not share the optimism of Minister Maxim Reshetnikov.

However, for 2022-2023, Kudrin also promises the Russian economy growth, albeit small - a maximum of 2,5 percent. But since 2021, the head of the RF JV, like many other officials, apparently has no clarity. Kudrin even blurts out that a year later, the economic downturn may continue, and 2021 will also bring great difficulties to the country.

Thus, the coveted three percent of growth from the government forecast, according to the chairman of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation, can again be hampered by the second wave of coronavirus. For our part, we will add that the inevitable fall in consumer (read: effective, according to J.M. Keynes) demand, inevitable in the event of a new series of severe restrictions, can hinder even more. Ruslan Grinberg, Corresponding Member and Chief Expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who has headed the Institute of Economics for many years, likes to regularly remind about its insignificance, even "scantiness" in Russia.

He was the first authoritative analyst to comment on Kudrin's recent speeches. After all, apparently, the difficult task fell out of spreading straws on the eve of the publication of much less optimistic scenarios for the development of the domestic economy than just three weeks ago.

Ruslan Grinberg first of all drew attention to Kudrin's remark, noting that the fall in the Russian economy was not as serious as in other countries. In this regard, the academician has no trace of any optimism. There was simply nowhere to fall seriously.

Kudrin sees the reasons for the not so significant decline in the lower share of small and medium-sized businesses, the service and tourism sectors, and at the same time a high share of mining and processing enterprises. These factors influenced the fact that the crisis in Russia turned out to be milder, Kudrin added.

Ruslan Grinberg, on the contrary, considers these factors to be the main problems for the domestic economy. Having a good connection between big business and consumers in the form of small and medium-sized businesses, our economy could gain additional stability, no doubt the esteemed corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

However, small business would have much better chances of survival if the process of impoverishment of citizens did not continue to grow in Russia, Ruslan Grinberg noted. He drew attention to the fact that in the near future the incomes of Russians will continue to fall, regardless of the level of GDP, and the authorities are still unable to rectify the situation.

Citizens' incomes are declining, but the drop in GDP does not matter here, be it at least five, at least six, at least four percent. The fall in income will continue in the near future due to the paralysis of all economic activities, which happened for known reasons, "

- recalled the chief expert of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

It is not worth hoping for an improvement in the situation, the economist noted.

“The authorities do not know what to do, and few people in the world know. But they must radiate optimism, and will do everything to keep things from getting worse. And in order to get better, it is necessary to completely change the philosophy of economic policy, for which our government is not ready, and maybe not capable of ”,

- concluded Greenberg.

Comments

[Alien From]

The truth is somewhere nearby ... they know it well)

[Same lech]

The truth is somewhere nearby ... they know it well)

This is a philosophical question ... economics is in the background here.
Of course, what is happening in our economy is not encouraging ... it is not clear where Russia is going with such an economy ... into the abyss or into a bright future?

[Svarog]

Quote: The same LYOKHA

Of course, what is happening in our economy is not encouraging ... it is not clear where Russia is going with such an economy ... into the abyss or into a bright future?

Isn't it still not clear? There are objective indicators .. Look at Oleg Komolov on YouTube, he describes everything exactly .. We are degrading.

[Sotskiy]

Quote: The same LYOKHA

... it is not clear where Russia is going with such an economy ...

How to where? To the "bright" liberal future, led by the right-wing liberal party and government and the liberal helmsman at the head!
Who is there the Union with its slogans got up across the throat?

[astepanov]

Quote: The same LYOKHA

. to the abyss or to a bright future?

Well, naturally, a bright future awaits us. Waiting as long as I can remember. Yes, that's just, it looks like hell will wait. As the classic used to say,
"It's a pity - to live in this wonderful time
You won't have to - neither me, nor you. "

[credo]

Quote: Alien From

The truth is somewhere nearby ... they know it well)

In general, I did not read even a hint of some truth or a way to reach a higher GDP in the article.
Neither Kudrin nor Greenberg impressed at all, although they hold high positions.

[Same lech]

Neither Kudrin nor Greenberg impressed at all, although they hold high positions.

But the salaries they receive are impressive.
If the gap in wages between a simple hard worker and hehe effective manager (in quotes) is several orders of magnitude different, then what kind of economy is it?
Our ruling class, like a parasite, has stuck to the resources of Russia and milked it at the expense of rent and skimming the cream from privatization ... sooner or later this will lead to the collapse of the economy.

[credo]

Quote: The same Lech

Neither Kudrin nor Greenberg impressed at all, although they hold high positions.

But the salaries they receive are impressive.
If the gap in wages between a simple hard worker and hehe effective manager (in quotes) is several orders of magnitude different, then what kind of economy is it?
Our ruling class, like a parasite, has stuck to the resources of Russia and milked it at the expense of rent and skimming the cream from privatization ... sooner or later this will lead to the collapse of the economy.

Yes, the difference in salaries is terrifying and there is no excuse for this.
I do not know what Kudrin and Greenberg are actually thinking, but clearly not about finding ways to achieve, for example, the economic growth that was until recently in China.
And each of the VO visitors can seem to be able to establish facts at their level, moreover, for a much more modest salary.

[Vadim237]

But it is clearly not about finding ways and achieving, for example, the economic growth that was until recently in China. "In these circumstances, there is simply no such way - the entire world economy has gone down, and with it, the trade turnover from here has reduced the exports of all goods and services. Now the main thing is to return to the indicators of the economy of 2019.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Vadim237

There is simply no such way under the circumstances.

Within the paradigm of economic policy, your favorite government certainly does not exist. And it won't.

[2 Level Advisor]

in China, the economy is growing even this year .. this is a unique country in its own way ..

[Overlock]

Quote: Vadim237

The main thing now is to return to the economic indicators of 2019.

Starting in 2013, the economy began to slow down, and the foreign policy of the country's leadership led to an aggravation of the situation and a financial decline. The peculiarity of the 2014-2015 crisis is that it developed only in Russia. 2019 is not marked by anything outstanding

[aybolyt678]

Quote: credo

I don't know what Kudrin and Greenberg really think about

to reach those heights (salaries), you need to walk over the skulls of competitors, and they are only concerned to stay at that level, because competitors are not asleep ... We still need to find time to rest from work, to be able to use the benefits that they have. They just have no time to think about our problems

[hagen]

Quote: credo

Yes, the difference in salaries is terrifying and there is no excuse for this.

But this, I think, is already from the field of philosophy. We are at a level of development when for every individual in society, personal enrichment is overwhelmingly a "guiding star" in life, or at least one of the most influential principles. Hardly any of those present at this forum began their work in a higher position with a decrease in their salaries. Because, as a rule, coming to a new position is conditioned and motivated by an increase in one's level of well-being. Society has not yet come to a fashion for asceticism, self-restraint in meeting their needs. Therefore, you do not see an excuse for other people's salaries, but you will always find one for yours. This is the person ... our person. He is no worse or better than others. It's just that each nation has passed its own path of evolutionary development and has what it has. It is foolish to step out of your community and try to judge it. You are exactly the same as it is (in the average mass).

[Glory1974]

Yes, the difference in salaries is terrifying and there is no excuse for this.

But this, I think, is already from the field of philosophy.

The difference in salaries of more than 10 times between the richest and the poorest in the country leads to social tension and threatens the country's security.
So it was written in the "National Security Strategy 2020".
Thus, the difference in income is not a philosophical concept, but a real threat to peaceful life in the country.

[hagen]

Quote: glory1974

Thus, the difference in income is not a philosophical concept, but a real threat to peaceful life in the country.

Dear, the current difference in income is a consequence of the fact that people who receive a large salary consider this a normal phenomenon. This is their inner conviction and attitude to their own well-being and its difference from others. This is primary. Some (employers) give, others (workers) take. This process is voluntary, but no one is trying to refuse a large salary, but they also strive to increase it in all possible, moreover legal, ways. I’m talking about this, if you don’t understand. Any strategy can be written. The desire to increase income, as a person's internal state, cannot be corrected by strategies. Inner convictions can be changed by public inquiry, by fashion, if you like, by a personal example of an authoritative personality. And today these strategies are written by people with watches worth a hundred thousand dollars in their hands. This is our level of development today. And we are almost all like that, with very few exceptions. It's just that sometimes we are ashamed to admit it even to ourselves

[Glory1974]

the prevailing difference in income is a consequence of the fact that people who receive a large salary consider this a normal phenomenon.

This is a consequence of the laws adopted by the "mad printer" (the State Duma).
In all countries, the difference in wages is regulated by law, and you cannot allow people's lives to depend on someone's wishes. Otherwise, someone would now want to buy a village for serfs, but not ... The law has nothing to do with internal convictions.
The growth in the income of the director of the enterprise should depend on the growth in the income of the whole enterprise and correlate with the income of the workers.
We have Gazprom incurring losses, and premiums for top managers are growing. This is a consequence of the absence of laws. This state of affairs makes the economy ineffective.

[hagen]

Quote: glory1974

This is a consequence of the laws adopted by the "mad printer" (the State Duma).

But the "mad printer" adopts those laws that are initiated on the basis of the awareness of the subjects having the right to legislative initiative, of their necessity. We again come to the realization of certain norms. Despite the fact that this "..... printer" did not fall from the moon, it was chosen by us or with our connivance (someone else), and therefore is a part of us.

Quote: glory1974

In all countries, the difference in wages is regulated by law.

Ek you bent. Give an example, pzhlsta.

Quote: glory1974

The growth in the income of the director of the enterprise should depend on the growth in the income of the whole enterprise and correlate with the income of the workers.

Maybe somewhere in government agencies there is something "like ...". How about in private business? Who can tell a private trader how to conduct business?
To get to the point, you need to read Weber. It seems to me that he diligently "dug" these problems.

Quote: glory1974

It is impossible to allow people's lives to depend on someone's wishes.

Only Robinson Crusoe could afford it. And in social life, where every time we encounter society, it is hardly possible to avoid other people's "wishes". We want something from society, something from us .... The only thing that can adjust the balance is moderation and self-restraint on both sides. But we still have to grow up to asceticism. Everyone ...

[ltc35]

Developed bureaucracy with various departments and subdivisions, the arimia of all kinds of supervision and inspections, plus the police and the National Guard, are the real brakes on financial and economic activity. They would be reduced and sent to the real sector. For example, in the deceased machine tool industry.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: credo

Neither Kudrin nor Greenberg impressed at all

I personally like Glazyev's arguments more. They are much more logical.

[forest1]

Glazyev here began to preach a new historical chronology of Fomenko Nosovsky. He has more and more excellent arguments

[Ingvar 72]

He explained the reason clearly enough. But stamps are more important to you, but for parsing arguments?

[nikvic46]

Pavel: What did you like about the new opuses of history? What makes it easier from the Tatar-Mongol yoke? That peoples in skins came to our beautiful cities? Very good reasons. And some historians say that Russia has existed for 20 thousand years, which is even more beautiful for ...

[forest1]

Everything is fine there. Especially for people with a normal liberal arts education. Mathematicians are, of course, excusable. It's easy to go crazy there

[aybolyt678]

Quote: Ingvar 72

I personally like Glazyev's arguments more. They are much more logical.

Logic is powerless over a herd of sheep. If we add to the logic a couple of articles of execution for failure to fulfill tasks of state importance, only then can there be any sense. We are also sitting here and discussing logically, only the legal consequences are zero.
Social justice is what you need to fight for, only it can become Logic, Idea and a turn in the right direction of development.

[ccsr]

Quote: credo

Neither Kudrin nor Greenberg impressed at all,

Yes, this is generally a "struggle of the Nanai boys", because they both learned from people like Aganbegyan, which means that they present the fundamental foundations of economics in a distorted form. Well, they do not pull close to the American of Russian origin Leontyev, so their assessments of the current situation do not come so much from time-tested scientific forecasting, but simply the result of fortune-telling on the coffee grounds, because we have no idea what America will present to us after the elections, which are still it is not known how it will end. But for anyone interested, I can read their forecasts in a year - then it will be clear who was right. By the way, at least someone remembers Kudrin's predictions in his post of minister, and what did he promise us?

[Rostislav]

The problem is that such responsible posts are occupied by figures like Kudrin.
And the GDP is still "moo-moo" - for the second term presidential decrees are not being implemented, and all ministers and others like them are in their places.
Who is this commander (leader) who silently lets his subordinates ignore their orders?

[Beringovsky]

Quote: Rostislav

The problem is that such responsible posts are occupied by figures like Kudrin.
And the GDP is still "moo-moo" ....

This is HPP.

Quote: Rostislav

Who is this commander (leader) who silently lets his subordinates ignore their orders?

And if it was intended?

[hagen]

Quote: credo

In general, I did not read even a hint of some truth or a way to reach a higher GDP in the article.

It seems to me that everything is written very clearly:

The authorities do not know what to do, and few people in the world know.

Speaking in Russian, it is said that no one knows for certain what needs to be done. As one smart man said, we will find the right path, but before that we will try all the others. It is not entirely smart to expect that, within the framework of one article, some unknown authors have prescribed convincing effective recipes for treating the economy. The opinions of Kudrin and Greenberg are not just their names and academic titles, but large groups of specialists involved in the routine computing work of large volumes of statistics. How can they be corrected by two authors of an article on VO, who are unlikely to have a comparable analytical apparatus? Economics is not a religion, it is a science where there is a lot of exactness (mathematics) but also infinitely many hypothetical subjective ones that cannot be predicted accurately (such as "inflation expectations", political preferences and decisions in the field of tariff barriers, taxation, external control systems, etc.). in various subjects of economic interaction). Even more amusing are the attempts of non-specialists to discuss the fidelity and fallacy of the actions of specialists. It was as if the patients in the smoking room were discussing the correctness of the doctor's treatment tactics for complex diseases.

[Svarog]

These are the analysts you need to listen to ...
And all these liberals just talk about it year after year ..

[Same lech]

Here is an interesting article by a Chinese ... Assistant Professor of Cambridge.
https://esa.un.org/techcoop/russian/PN_SOEReforNote-RU.pdf

[Svarog]

Quote: The same Lech

Here is an interesting article by a Chinese ... Assistant Professor of Cambridge.
https://esa.un.org/techcoop/russian/PN_SOEReforNote-RU.pdf

This is a whole scientific work)) I walked briefly, but it is interesting and I agree with many things, I was especially pleased that my conclusions largely coincide .. take the "shortcomings of state enterprises" in fact, one drawback is not the correct motivation of personnel. And that's exactly what I thought. In general, I will definitely read everything at my leisure, it is really interesting.

[forest1]

He is South Korean. The economist is really first class

[depressant]

It's strange. In the spring, they said that the National Welfare Fund had a total of more than $ 500 billion, and Komolov said $ 128 billion. And since the Fund has not yet been printed, as the press constantly repeats, it turns out that more than $ 378 billion has already been stolen?

[Svarog]

Quote: depressant

Strange.

You can find the answer in this video ..

[Overlock]

Quote: depressant

... already stolen?

If you believe V. Solovyu, then Siluanov told Putin: there will be enough money only until the end of the year

[Sergey39]

Quote: Alien From

The truth is somewhere near....

The truth is that Mr. Kudrin is aiming for the presidency.

[depressant]

I will not vote for him, he is an accountant, not a politician. Moreover, an accountant who counts on accounts. Or maybe even an abacus.
I will not vote for Mishustin either. He's an accountant, counting on a calculator. I don’t believe that it’s a special program on a computer. If this were the case, a bunch of mine and steamer owners would already be behind bars for hiding and evading taxes and other financial crimes.

[New Year day]

Quote: depressant

I won't vote for him

Voting power does not change ... with us. No wonder they gave 3 days and the opportunity to vote in the toilet

[credo]

Quote: Sergey39

Quote: Alien From

The truth is somewhere near....

The truth is that Mr. Kudrin is aiming for the presidency.

Yes you what.
With his thoughts about our economy, we got Russia 2.0 from the times of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, and there will be no stone unturned from industry associations in the civil and military areas.

[Alien From]

Kudrin has no chances for the presidency. The gut is thin!

[New Year day]

Quote: Alien From

The truth is somewhere near...

The truth is that the number of poor people in Russia has increased to 20 million, and the purchasing power of the population is falling. Well, those who still have money, invest it in real estate, cars. Nobody believes in economic growth anymore.

[Alien From]

It doesn't matter for these NON-people!

[Snail N9]

The near future:
Grandmother came for bread, brings the Citizen's Single Identifier to the reader, and from there: "Justify the need for bread." Grandma: "I want to eat." From there: "The food of people who do not bring income to the state is recognized as inappropriate. Contact the funeral bureau."

[depressant]

Chinese. Developed the so-called doctrine of the self-destructive economy. The West is already studying it, figuring it out. They say there is meaning and perspectives. For example, housing is only purchased, but the shelf life of any house is 70 years. And so - in everything. The expiration date has expired, the product is destroyed on the vine. At least a house, at least something else. Work on destruction and creation - above the roof, jobs - in bulk. And the need for work is continuous. The ancient Egyptians did not know, erecting their pyramids and temples for millennia, that a self-destructive economy, keeping pace with technological progress, is extremely promising. However, would we know about them?

[Daniil Konovalenko]

He drew attention to the fact that in the near future the incomes of Russians will continue to fall, regardless of the level of GDP, and the authorities are still unable to rectify the situation.

GDP grows in rubles, while revenues fall in dollars ...

[Svarog]

Quote: Daniil Konovalenko

He drew attention to the fact that in the near future the incomes of Russians will continue to fall, regardless of the level of GDP, and the authorities are still unable to rectify the situation.

GDP grows in rubles, while revenues fall in dollars ...

[Don karleone]

They are poured from empty to empty, but the common people don't get any better from this

[depressant]

Pouring from empty to empty and vice versa is the most highly paid analytical work, requiring many competencies and supporting certificates.

[prior]

In a word
The reason for the collapse of the USSR was Gorbachev.
The reason for the future collapse of Russia is Putin.
The reason for the collapse of the Russian economy is Kudrin.

[Woodman]

Quote: prior

The reason for the future collapse of Russia

Do not wait.

[prior]

The overwhelming majority of its citizens did not expect and did not want the collapse of the USSR either ...

[Virus-free crown]

I agree with this from the article !!!

Kudrin sees the reasons for the not so significant decline in the lower share of small and medium-sized businesses, the service and tourism sectors, and at the same time a high share of mining and processing enterprises. These factors influenced the fact that the crisis in Russia turned out to be milder, Kudrin added.

Indeed ... then, today at least 1 out of 10 medium and small businesses have closed (in chocolate, according to the optimistic data of Rosstat ) (according to other sources - 3 out of 10) (if we take into account the PPI - then 4 out of 10) - against the background of mining and processing enterprises "garbage in vegetable oil"

The question is ... how many millions of able-bodied people in Russia are out of work now ?! And where is the account and control of all this ?!

[depressant]

Here's what one of the Moscow restaurateurs says:

"Sometimes my hands just give up. Today - both arms and legs, and ears. Honestly, I do not understand why bother wasting time with such efficiency as mine. Most of all I am amazed at how this damn year persistently and consistently With all its steps, decrees and rhetoric, the government of our country and some of its regions succeeds in dragging entrepreneurs into the opposition. The level of anger is off scale. You see, initially it was not at all like that. "

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: depressant

Here's what one of the Moscow restaurateurs says:

“Sometimes my hands just give up. Today - both hands and feet, and ears. Honestly, I don’t understand why bother wasting time with such efficiency as mine. Most of all, I am amazed at how, all this damn year, persistently and consistently with all its steps, decrees and rhetoric, the government of our country and some of its regions succeeds in dragging entrepreneurs into the opposition. The level of anger is off scale. You see, originally it was not at all like that. "

Dedicated in bold - believe! at least when it comes to Moscow and the region !!!

[depressant]

The same entrepreneur wonders why laws restricting small and medium-sized businesses are constantly being tightened up? After all, this business allows you to create a huge number of jobs - as many as you need! And that's exactly why. The authorities do not need a people who feed themselves, but must - from a powerful hand and were grateful, ingratiatingly looked at the authorities as a benefactor, gradually, from generation to generation, losing the skills of passionate entrepreneurship and even the very idea of ​​such an opportunity.
For an entrepreneur is a carrier of the master's psychology, who respects himself. Growing up to a major businessman, he is able to compete with the established oligarchy and oust him from illegally occupied positions. It is able to compete with countless foreign "partners" who have seized our trading networks, food production, part of the power generating capacities, collection of payments for electricity, etc. And as a result of such activities, not to let the political power sleep peacefully, and on occasion change to a convenient one for him, an entrepreneur who grew up in a competitive struggle and really understands the schemes and currents of production. Therefore, a priori critical of the authorities ...

And so that it does not happen like this, it is necessary to annually tighten the requirements for small and medium-sized businesses - so that they howl and shut down.
Every year, he, small and medium, should descend to him, new tax solutions that can cause amazement at the lack of elementary logic.
And therefore, a total digitalization of the activities of small and medium-sized enterprises will be carried out, which, according to experts, will reduce production efficiency by 30-40%.
For this, a new labor code is being introduced, which experts have already recognized as ineffective, and in some positions - absurd, but who will listen to specialists if the task is different, namely: to kill small and medium-sized people as a possible nucleus of future social protests.

But entrepreneurs for the most part are still mistaken, believing that such a policy of the authorities towards them comes from a total misunderstanding of what small and especially medium business is.
On the contrary! Power protects itself and its clan. Is this really incomprehensible to business? I, as a consumer, understand. When I buy food, I know that on the territory of my country they are produced by foreigners who bought up Russian brands in the bud.
It turns out like this:
Entrepreneur, have you sold your business to a foreigner yet?!? So you are politically unreliable!

[Beringovsky]

It was necessary to highlight in bold the phrase

the level of anger is off scale

Here is the key assessment.

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Beringovsky

It was necessary to highlight in bold the phrase

the level of anger is off scale

Here is the key assessment.

I have already written this repeatedly in terms of relativity to Moscow and the region, but practically no one believes me

[Motorist]

Quote: Corona without virus

Indeed ... then, today at least 1 out of 10 medium and small businesses have closed (in chocolate, according to the optimistic data of Rosstat) (according to other sources - 3 out of 10) (if we take into account the PPI, then 4 out of 10)

Crown, good evening! Will you give the numbers? If you are too lazy to search - see my comments, page 11, 18 August 2020, 22:36. Not everything is so simple - not many people want to close!

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Quote: Corona without virus

Indeed ... then, today at least 1 out of 10 medium and small businesses have closed (in chocolate, according to the optimistic data of Rosstat) (according to other sources - 3 out of 10) (if we take into account the PPI, then 4 out of 10)

Crown, good evening! Will you give the numbers? If you are too lazy to search - see my comments, page 11, 18 August 2020, 22:36. Not everything is so simple - not many people want to close!

kind
As for the optimistic chocolate figures - there is in the Rosstat reports
Only ... we must not forget about crown phrase:

The numbers are deceiving, especially when I do them myself; on this occasion, the statement attributed to Disraeli is true: "There are three types of lies: lies, blatant lies and statistics."
- Mark Twain, July 5, 1907



So, statistic data has the same relation to the realities of life as my nickname to the real crown

It is enough to take my "social unit" (that is, my family) for six months:
- my company in real life was bankrupt in June and 50+ people, we are all really unemployed since the summer - but according to statistics, our company is still alive
- Zhinka did not close her ICHP - but in fact, her ICHI does not work either

etc )))

[Motorist]

Quote: Corona without virus

The numbers are deceiving, especially when I do them myself.

Quote: Corona without virus

It is enough to take my "social unit"

You, as I understand it, deal with the numbers "1" and "0". Specific figures - no doubt! But Rosstat is also not bastard, it gives a 4.2% fall. Do you have other data for the country (except, as you said - "from other sources"), or not? One social unit is not enough - you are not a "Maxwell demon".

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Quote: Corona without virus

The numbers are deceiving, especially when I do them myself.

Quote: Corona without virus

It is enough to take my "social unit"

You, as I understand it, deal with the numbers "1" and "0". Specific figures - no doubt! But Rosstat is also not bastard, it gives a 4.2% fall. Do you have other data for the country (except, as you said - "from other sources"), or not? One social unit is not enough - you are not a "Maxwell demon".

4.2 percent - from what ?!

I quoted the original quote from the article:

Most of all, I am amazed at how, all this damn year, persistently and consistently with all its steps, decrees and rhetoric, the government of our country and some of its regions succeeds in dragging entrepreneurs into the opposition.

Let's disassemble the words, as they say, "Manages to Drag Entrepreneurs into Opposition"

Let's take for example "Yandex-taxi"
An ordinary ordinary person thinks that this is a firm And such ...
In fact, it is an aggregator of calls to taxi drivers, there they "work" (in fact, they have entered into an agreement with Yandex-taxi) quite often the ICP and the self-employed. If you just shut down Yandex-taxi, a line will appear in the Rosstat line that one company has become less ... And the fact that hundreds of thousands of personal private entrepreneurs and self-employed people were left without work - then not a single line about this will appear anywhere in the official documents .. . as well as the fact that these hundreds of thousands of Russians have become self-employed persons and self-employed only and exclusively because they would work with Yandex-taxi - they do not shout about this at every corner after all ?!

[Motorist]

Quote: Corona without virus

If you just shut down Yandex-taxi, a line will appear in the Rosstat line that one company has become less ... And the fact that hundreds of thousands of individual private entrepreneurship and self-employed were left without work - so not a single line about this will appear anywhere in the official documents .. ...

Well, you were too lazy even mine that read the comment ... Okay, I quote myself (TASS):

At the same time, the situation in the SME sector could be much worse - we see that the number of people employed in SMEs has not decreased over the year, but even increased by 129 thousand people - to 15,5 million ...

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Quote: Corona without virus

If you just shut down Yandex-taxi, a line will appear in the Rosstat line that one company has become less ... And the fact that hundreds of thousands of individual private entrepreneurship and self-employed were left without work - so not a single line about this will appear anywhere in the official documents .. ...

Well, you were too lazy even mine that read the comment ... Okay, I quote myself (TASS):

At the same time, the situation in the SME sector could be much worse - we see that the number of people employed in SMEs has not decreased over the year, but even increased by 129 thousand people - to 15,5 million ...

Above the TASS message I TACTFULLY giggle

[Motorist]

Quote: Corona without virus

Over the TASS message I TACTICALLY chuckle

I delve into the sources, I give figures - I argue, in short, and you just say "from other sources" and giggle ... Unconstructively, with all due respect.

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Quote: Corona without virus

Over the TASS message I TACTICALLY chuckle

I delve into the sources, I give figures - I argue, in short, and you just say "from other sources" and giggle ... Unconstructively, with all due respect.

Okay ... if you do not understand my words (I admit, with the correct expression of my thoughts, I have problems since childhood ) maybe by watching this video (a la "TASS is authorized to report ...")



You will still understand the ingenious phrase "There is a lie, there is a blatant lie and there is statistics."

The marquis (to me) her managers (the state) sings a song, "That everything is good!"

However ... in fact ... I see in real life a completely different picture of the world ... and in this picture, in spite of everything, I have almost everything kARASHO))) compared to what I see when I leave at home or after learning from their friends, neighbors and friends what happened to them over the past six months ...

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Quote: Corona without virus

Over the TASS message I TACTICALLY chuckle

I dig in the sources, give figures - I argue, in short, and you just say "other sources" and giggle ... Unconstructively, with all due respect.

Also "rummaged in the sources"

https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/znr-2019.htm

"Average monthly accrued wages of employees
employees in organizations, individual
entrepreneurs and individuals "

pay attention to the Moscow region for 2019

figure - 46417 rubles. per month!!!

so vooot ... from my friends in the village near Moscow, where I now live, such a figure for the past year in a month NOBODY !!! did not receive !!! chocolate was 45 thousand rubles for a couple of people ... the rest receive 18-35 thousand rubles a month !!!

There are, of course, two options ... the neighbors in the village (as well as local firms that post advertisements for the recruitment of employees) are lying to me FULLY !!! the second option is statistics ... she's so ... statistics ...

[Motorist]

Income forgotten. Envelopes (although Rosstat should have it in another section). Acquaintances may not speak in order to avoid, well, etc. (incl. your first option). Why would Rosstat lie? His task is to count. If everyone around you is suspicious, then you can at least get registered here and there ...

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

Income forgotten. Envelopes (although Rosstat should have it in another section). Acquaintances may not speak in order to avoid, well, etc. (incl. your first option). Why would Rosstat lie? His task is to count. If everyone around you is suspicious, then you can at least get registered here and there ...

1. We take it on faith that all my friends are lying to me! I understand ... it has always been ubiquitous to be poor
2. Then the question to local firms, which for their money advertise the hiring of employees - they are lying the same ... and not to me, but to "an unlimited number of people" (quote from the law on advertising) ?!
3. Okay, companies that advertise at their own expense ... If you review vacancies at the local employment office, "A rare bird will fly to the middle of the Dnieper ..." (c) from the classics))) there will be a figure of 25.000 rubles - for happiness!!!

[Motorist]

I look at https://rabota.yandex.ru/moskovskaya_oblast/vakansii/proizvodstvo/
Here firstthat came across in the section "Production":
--------
Scrap collector
Wedge
No work experience required, full time
45 - 000 rubles / month
---------
Crown, this dispute "from empty to empty" does not make sense, tie it up already!

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

I look at https://rabota.yandex.ru/moskovskaya_oblast/vakansii/proizvodstvo/
Here firstthat came across in the section "Production":
--------
Scrap collector
Wedge
No work experience required, full time
45 - 000 rubles / month
---------
Crown, this dispute "from empty to empty" does not make sense, tie it up already!

I'm tying it !!! Once you are in the ad that you yourself have brought, NOTHING !!! does not bother!

[Motorist]

This is the first thing that came across. Work that does not require qualifications. Chief engineer for 110 thousand rubles. Wouldn't suit you [in the discussion]. By the way, in the USSR, every third ton of steel was smelted from scrap metal - did you know? Be healthy!

[depressant]

Well, at the end of your dispute, colleagues)))
To the fundamental question of the esteemed Authors - a fundamental answer: Mr. Wallet is closer to the truth. Doesn't get thin, but stares, refuses to buy))

[Virus-free crown]

Quote: Motorist

This is the first thing that came across. Work that does not require qualifications. Chief engineer for 110 thousand rubles. Wouldn't suit you [in the discussion]. By the way, in the USSR, every third ton of steel was smelted from scrap metal - did you know? Be healthy!

As for scrap metal - I even wrote a detailed post, how we, in the days of the USSR, schoolchildren, in the summer, on this "raised solid money" - you can reread my posts
About the Chief Engineer for 110 thousand rubles. a month - I agree - there are such vacancies ... the problem is that there are currently at best a couple of dozen "Chief Engineers" in Klin for the whole city, and they all work in Moscow at a rate of 1,5-2 times more and it is not a fact which of these two dozen will agree to work for "such a penny" - such people are "piece goods" even for Moscow

and for the rest ... so as not to "pour from empty to empty" ... a third of the able-bodied Klin (optimistic estimates according to the Rosstat (if they would conduct such studies) every morning goes to Moscow to work for 50-70 thousand rubles a month ... 2-3 hours before work ... 2-3 hours from work. .. every working day ...))) not from a good life, because there is no work in Klin !!!

[hagen]

Quote: Corona without virus

Over the TASS message I TACTICALLY chuckle

Hee-hee without refutation ... This is so our way ...

[TAMBU]

answer - Ruslan Grinberg

[iouris]

Truth is not in the middle. Both hide the truth.

[rocket757]

The authorities do not know what to do, and few people in the world know.

Good, correct clarification .... although, there is no joy from the fact that we have almost the same as everywhere else!
The service business is as bad as a significant part of the country's population. Everything is interconnected.
No amount of jerking will help now! They will only make it worse.
The economy needs to become economical! As big as every person. Live within your means.
But the public activity of the population must increase, otherwise some part of society will really want to shift the whole burden of problems and losses onto everyone else! It is against this that society should rally, only in this way, in reality, ALL TOGETHER!

[Bumblebee_3]

rocket757 (Victor)

Quote: rocket757

It is against this that society should rally, only in this way, in reality, ALL TOGETHER!

The question for me - a techie: How to do it?

[rocket757]

The answer is the same, non-humanities - what happens when many, many cells (batteries) are collected in one big battery?
The answer is that you can power a "bulldozer that will move a stone out of our way."
This is of course very figurative, but approximately the way it is.
You should not create "clubs of beer lovers on sofas", but search / create / join a community of like-minded people and ... further as a textbook.
We are the state !!! But only when we are all together.

[Bumblebee_3]

rocket757 (Victor)
I agree with you. You can take more batteries and start the bulldozer. But people are not batteries. Judging from my own experience. My partner and I have created a small "firm". There were about 50 employees. We decided that the meals (lunch) would be centralized. They took the cook, he cooked for everyone, such as set meals. I note that there were no complaints about the cook, he cooked very well. Everything seemed to be fine, but then discontent (claims) began, such as: I don’t want it, I don’t like it, I have gastritis, I cannot.

Quote: rocket757

But only when we're all together

It doesn't always work out to be together.

[rocket757]

That's right, people are not batteries ... although those from different batches, from different manufacturers, can be both beneficial and harmful! And the greater the difference, the more there are. So for that and the "electrician" must be an experienced, specialist in order to weed out the marriage as its negative effect manifests itself!
It is the same with people. There should be those leaders who know how to unite everyone together, lead to the intended goal, and weed out "marriage" before it can harm the common cause!
There will be leaders, but there will also be those who are ready to trample the light in the night! So it was, is, will always be.

[depressant]

Maybe you're right.
So many years we endured under gloomy discontent, with an intonation that defies description, but clearly makes it possible to understand that we all endured this: "Don't rock the boat!" And in general, they are stupid in life, since we do not share the concerns of the intra-clan squabbles of the oligarchy (and there can be no others, right?). And right there, in order to create a picture for us of our alleged movement, a professional imitation opposition with a clichéd set of slogans was released into the streets. Like, here's a movie for you, see how active you are, sitting in front of the TV. And then it was as if you heard: "Have you seen? Have you seen that there is some movement in the country? Well, okay!"
And so they lived.
And today I watched the nighttime confrontation in Belarus. Long barricades across squares and streets from some tumbled down booths, cupboards, park fences, a lot of stones turned out of the sidewalks, and Molotov cocktails. Are thrown over. The police shoot smoky, the defenders of the barricades fiery. They even encroached on the police department.
There are many defenders. I'm no longer attracted to the staged show.

[rocket757]

Quote: depressant

There are many defenders. No longer attracted to the staged show

Come on. Standard situation, controlled chaos, unequivocally not supported by the bulk of the population!
Take practically ANY state in the world, there was such a thing, there is, and even more abruptly!
I'm not a supporter of bam ... it's HIS FAILURE !!! first of all, but there are second, third ... tenths.
Those who are to blame must leave .... BUT, the president must organize a well-organized, legal departure, the transfer of power, on LEGAL BASIS! He has the opportunity and time for this.

[AB]

completely change the philosophy of economic policy, for which our government is not ready, and maybe not capable

That it is not ready and not capable, there is no need to prove it. But, most likely, there is a direct betrayal of the interests of the population of Russia in the economy. Power only creates the illusion of caring for the people.

[ZEMCH]

An accountant against an academician. Who is closer to the truth: Ruslan Grinberg or Alexey Kudrin?

The truth is indeed between them, but it is difficult to develop an economy in a hostile environment. When the economy depends on the Fed's decision, then it is not self-sufficient.
In one thing, the academician is right, small and medium business needs to be developed and it needs to be helped, not strangled

[nikvic46]

Firstly, we do not know how things are with medium and small businesses in other countries during a pandemic. I don’t know what to do with medium-sized businesses, but small businesses must get out of government influence. Otherwise, officials will continue to pressure them. has no right to give change to an official.

[mark2]

The state is the foundation. Big business is equipment that provides the main income in any state, even (sarcastically ..) in the liberal USA. And, as I have defined here myself, I am not afraid of this word, professor, once again I am not afraid of another word, Greenberg, "gasket" is a consumable that remains in the case, or is subject to frequent replacement during the operation of the equipment. Medium business is always sacrificed in any country in any crisis. I'm not talking about the small one. Small simply disappears by itself even on the eve of the crisis.

Russians' incomes will continue to fall regardless of the level of GDP, and the authorities are still unable to rectify the situation.

It's not about strength. The point is reluctance, for reasons clearly not voiced, but which everyone knows about.

In this regard, the academician has no trace of optimism. There was simply nowhere to fall seriously

She ... here he is clearly wrong. There is room to fall. There was no place to fall in the second half of the 80s, but then the 90s came and it turned out there was room to fall.
The whole problem is not in the economy, but in the fact that it is liberal. Those. the whole world is working to support the world currency - the dollar, instead of saving their economies.
Linking GDP and the dollar rate is simply killing.
Economics is a game with rules invented somewhere by someone.
Now we have read an article about two players. At what very bad players. They are both considered authorities. And none of them was able to make money by these rules of states. Both graze near budget. And why listen to them?

[Vadim237]

When the problems with the coronavirus in the world subside, then the economy will grow, including in Russia.

[mark2]

We'll see if we live, of course.

[Overlock]

Quote: Vadim237

When the problems with the coronavirus in the world subside, then the economy will grow, including in Russia.

But what about the Pechenegs and the Polovtsians?

[nikvic46]

I don’t believe these soothsayers. Someone still believes that in 1991 they staged a coup for the sake of a brighter future. The people who were satisfied with all this were driven by the desire to get into the pocket of the state. And this desire only increased every year. And in order for this share to increase, the Prime Minister in Ukraine drew a future without pensions. Has anyone in the West indignant? The West has watched the division of property in the post-Soviet space before. The more indignation of ordinary people, it is beneficial to it.

[nnm]

According to this article, Granberg notes:

Having a good connection between big business and consumers in the form of small and medium-sized enterprises, our economy could both gain additional stability,

However, in his other work ("The Results of Economic Reforms in Post-Socialist Countries"), he comes to a slightly different conclusion:

Direct relationship between the scale of the private sector and the rate of economic growth no... In most countries, the greatest effect was achieved already at the stage of commercialization of the activities of state enterprises.

Probably, the academician is referring to the SMP, directly created at their own expense "from scratch."
However, taking into account the repeatedly mentioned low level of positive expectations of both the consumer and the NSR, especially in conditions of restrictions and expectations of such, would it be correct to believe that NSR in crisis situations will be just a damper, and not a source of negative multiplication? Too high tax (due to the same "indirect" VAT, leading to an increase in the final cost of their products, works, services), credit, lease burden on them. Bearing in mind the "incredibly generous" assistance from the state to these economic entities, it seems that the second option will most likely take place.
And I don't even want to comment on Kudrin.

[demo]

It is not worth hoping for an improvement in the situation, the economist noted.
“The authorities do not know what to do, and few people in the world know. But they must radiate optimism, and will do everything to keep things from getting worse. And in order to get better, it is necessary to completely change the philosophy of economic policy, for which our government is not ready, and maybe not capable of ”,
- concluded Greenberg.

When you read the statements of people of such a level as this expert, it is difficult to understand what he means.
You start to spend time reading his interviews, articles, works.
And only then do you understand the true essence of his words and thoughts.
Short excerpt:
"..... The way out is in the movement to a genuine social market economy, where freedom and justice do not exclude, but complement each other. It follows that almost the entire world society needs a responsible alternative game that balances the modern financial oligarchy. And here, apparently, there is no alternative to the renewed version of social liberalism that ruled the show in the 1950s – 1970s, and actions to overcome the crisis of democracy, to which the dominance of the quasi-religious idea of ​​the free market led.

But unlike socialism or Keynesianism, this idea is implicated in the tough self-interest of its bearers and without resistance will not renounce the vicious elitism that has ensured the enrichment of the minority unprecedented in modern history. And yet there is still hope to correct the situation in a legal way. The case is small. International collaboration between civil society organizations, human rights groups and other non-governmental organizations supporting change should be encouraged. At the same time, it is necessary to find the strength to cope with the financial oligarchy without social disintegration, not to mention violence. Transnational corporations must be brought under the control of supranational regulators. It is necessary to further strengthen the fight against tax havens, tax evasion, fraud and corruption, as well as ensure international coordination of efforts aimed at raising corporate taxes, the pan-European tax on wealth and financial transactions. And, of course, it's time to move from rhetoric to practice regarding the separation of business from politics.

The understanding that it is necessary to unite against the financial oligarchy and various structures serving its interests should not only enter the consciousness of those disadvantaged by inequality, but also induce them to defend their rights in a civilized manner. History has already brought the parties to the barricades. So it's time for both of them to remember the words of John F. Kennedy: "Those who oppose a peaceful revolution will receive a violent one" ...

This fruit does not accept anything else.
What are these - supranational regulators?
Who creates them?
Their functionality?
Capabilities?
Real leverage and influence?
Legitimacy?
And who transfers what powers, from their "national" and sovereign ones?
If TNCs operate in five or six countries, then these are the countries that regulate their activities?
And if in some countries these TNCs do not operate, then what do they care about what the TNCs are doing?
In short, the liberal expert scolded the liberal bookkeeper.

In our country, there are no others and are not expected.

[CBR600]

Even simpler is the struggle of TNCs with NK. And talking about corruption is generally not grateful, this is just the level of NK and politicians. TNCs work with institutions of lawyers and the same institutions of economists, beating governments with their NC. That's the whole bolt to the penny. War.
dogs ... I forgot to drop the WTO with the IMF, those are still regulators.

[Stalnov I.P.]

All these Gaidarites in the PEOPLE were called ZAVLABS, the EBNets promoted them to the government, well, a zavlab cannot be a Deputy Prime Minister, not that mind, scope, professionalism, I am not talking about decency and honesty. All our high inmates suffer from these vices.

[CBR600]

Quote: Overlock

Quote: Vadim237

The main thing now is to return to the economic indicators of 2019.

Starting in 2013, the economy began to slow down, and the foreign policy of the country's leadership led to an aggravation of the situation and a financial decline. The peculiarity of the 2014-2015 crisis is that it developed only in Russia. 2019 is not marked by anything outstanding

Am I the only one noticing a CYCLE and a sharp dip with an interval of 11 years (1998-2009-2020)?

[CBR600]

Quote: Hagen

... Economics is not a religion, it is a science where there is a lot of exact (mathematics) ...

Not a science, but a system, like any, that implies a definition. Science describes the processes of a system, whether it is mathematically accurate or not, it is a question of error. And certainly not philosophy. For example, what is an army and its doctrine?
For me, economics is closer to sociology. The adoption of market laws, the protection of sovereignty, the development of industry and the agricultural sector, so that food would be cheaper and tastier, and the industry would give .... I no longer remember what kind of industry it is !!! She is no longer and will not be. If it does, it will be a new industrialization. And it has long been said - the second bottom is broken.
Regarding the article, I believe the academics. But they, humble people, will not say how bad everything is.

[PIT]

Two libertines argue :) ahah

[Thomas the Unbelieving]

It is funny when the liquidators are called liberals. It has not been proven that a foreign-citizen board of shareholders can select more qualified managers than the ministry's personnel department. Ruslan is right, even from an accounting point of view, the reduction in spending on health care, education and culture, not to mention the income of the population, is a direct deduction from the country's GDP (Gross Domestic Product, not Vladimir Vladimirovich P.). And most importantly, how does all this public ensure the country's monetary security, since now all reserves that exceed the real standards by about four times can be zeroed at any time. And further. A new course is needed: Roosevelt was right when he named the reasons for the crisis of the last century: “the paralysis that fettered the economy after that unfortunate decade when people were seized by the pursuit of unearned wealth, and their leaders in all spheres of activity did not want to know anything except their own selfish interests and easy money. " Tough measures are needed: freeze the payment of dividends until the end of the crisis, bank holidays, the obligatory buyout of shares in strategic industries from foreign capital, the blockade of the Atlantic on the transport of LNG by tankers, the demand for the withdrawal of American troops in accordance with Yalta from our sector of German occupation.

[andrew42]

Oh, these crafty "bookkeepers", both curls and Reshetics, and between them the impoverished population of the country rushes about, against the backdrop of a shrinking economic "blanket". The economic system is built to serve the dominant political class. (When they start tra-la-la about "politics is determined by the economy," it's just Feedback). The dominant political class is the new Russian nobility. The rest are fiscal slaves, nothing more. Well, there are also "personnel serving the lordship", so 10-12 million, most of which feed in Moscow, a smaller part - in St. Petersburg. and much less - in millionaires. That's all. And a reasonable question arises: what kind of economy do the Kudrins (liberals) and the Zaputintsy mean? What is the purpose of this economy-? Well, certainly not the rise in the welfare of the average citizen. It's just the opposite. From half-dead sheep they cut the last hairs - from state employees, and from employees, and from small and medium-sized businesses. The situation in terms of the survival of the state and its economy is such that while society still has the opportunity to allow small and medium-sized businesses to be used as a stone on which to rely and push off, BUT .. this is under the CONDITION that private property will be completely expelled from large and super-large business, and assets were nationalized and transferred under state administration with a socialist ideological imperative. Until it's too late for the country. If we further allow large private capital to survive the state budget under the guise of "state corporations", besides feeding numerous "contractors" and "subcontractors" according to the state's pie, we will come to a terrible technological lag, similar to the situation of the 1920s in comparison ... It is as if in 1919, against the background of devastation, the "whites" would take power. And then, for sure, there will be only "war communism" (which we would not want) or death. The Soviet backlog will finally dry up, and the new current "effective managers" do not know how to build anything real. The Kerch Bridge does not count - this is not Economics from the word at all.