Military Review

What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: an assessment of the situation

78

It was clear for a long time that sooner or later the Americans would have to leave Afghanistan, regardless of what kind of government would rule in Kabul, except perhaps outright terrorists like Osama bin Laden. And this moment has almost come. The decision was made, a promise to the Taliban (representatives of a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) to withdraw their troops was given. What will this lead to, in general, too история has already demonstrated on the example of President Najibullah. For the sake of retaining power and expanding support for his government by the population, he initiated a policy of national reconciliation, was ready to create a coalition government with the Mujahideen, made Islam the state religion and allowed the use of Sharia. But that didn't save him. He was still perceived by the population as a protege of the USSR. While the Soviet troops were in the country, he retained power, although significant territories had already retreated under the control of the Mujahideen. USSR withdrew OKSV, but continued to supply the regime weapons and ammunition, and therefore Najibullah still retained power. But after its (USSR) collapse, when Russia stopped military supplies to the Najibullah regime, almost immediately Kabul was captured by the Mujahideen, Najibullah was overthrown.


The same scenario is likely after the upcoming US withdrawal. The Taliban today control, according to various sources, from 50 to 70 percent of the territory of Afghanistan and expand their zone of influence. Sharia norms are established in the controlled territories and strictly monitor their implementation, applying the most severe measures to violators of the rules of conduct. This is also why they, while in power and the existence of their "state", managed to establish a strict order, stop fighting and even stop drug production on the territory.

The number of militants is estimated at around 60 thousand people. Despite attempts to end the inter-Afghan war, the Taliban continue to fight against the government army, and although they have reduced the intensity, they still attack the coalition forces.



What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan?


Without the military support of the current government and the direct participation of the coalition forces in the battles against the Taliban, President Ghani will also not hold out for long under the Taliban onslaught. Apart from humanitarian and financial assistance, they will not help him in any way. Unless in case of a threat, they can evacuate the country on American planes, in order to avoid the fate of Najibullah, who was hanged by the Taliban. They will take Kabul again and restore the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as it was. Nobody will put up resistance to the Taliban. Former President Hamid Karzai managed to secure his power from strong potential opponents in various ways. Therefore, today there are no charismatic and experienced military leaders and politicians like Ahmadshah Massoud who are capable of organizing a new Northern Alliance and leading the resistance to the Taliban. Someone died, like Fatim, someone was bought for a position, Masud and Rabbani were killed by suicide bombers. The Northern Alliance has ceased to exist. Marshal Dostum's Uzbeks are not a serious force today.

The government army will collapse and partly go over to the side of the Taliban. And the Afghan military will not resist strongly.

Therefore, I suppose, if the Taliban are able to show wisdom and are able to agree with the Tajiks (23% of the population), Uzbeks (9%) and Hazaras (10%) on peace and harmony, they have a chance to restore the integrity of Afghanistan within its former borders. Although with the same Hazaras and Uzbeks, in case of misunderstanding of the parties, the Taliban can sort it out by military means. And in the end, this can happen. After all, the Taliban are mostly Pashtuns, and they have strength on their side. They in the majority - 50% of the population plus will receive, in addition to the currently available equipment and weapons, the arsenal of the government army, and they have some kind of ideology and practice of state building. Most importantly, they can ensure peace and order (as much as possible, given that the Taliban is an organization that uses terrorist methods) in a tired and devastated country. Moreover, even now, even in the provinces controlled by the government, the Taliban have their own illegal authorities, which will quickly become completely legal in the event of the fall of the central government and the transformation of the Taliban themselves into legal power. And I think that this time, even if not immediately, the Taliban government will be recognized by many countries in the world. The US itself set an example. It is unlikely that they will start repeating their previous mistakes and unnerving civilized countries with the destruction of ancient statues, as it was in Bamiyan. They care little about the world community, but its humanitarian assistance and assistance in rebuilding the destroyed country would not be superfluous.

This is a military version of the Taliban's coming to power. But they have every chance to take power within the framework of the national ceasefire process. Having control over most of the provinces and with legalization as a political force after the conclusion of a peace agreement with the government, they can win the elections and become the legal official government of Afghanistan, and then everything goes according to the first option. This path will facilitate the process of legitimizing their power in the world.

Which option happens depends not only on the Taliban. After the withdrawal of the coalition troops, the government, even if an agreement is signed, knowing the tough temper of the Taliban towards enemies, may try to retain power. But this is a useless exercise and unnecessary sacrifices.

Iran has always had some influence on the situation in Afghanistan, which has more than 900 km of the common border with it. They have a complicated relationship history. And with the Taliban, it almost came to war because of the capture in 1998 of the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif and the shooting of diplomats and employees, the Taliban's persecution of the Shiites of Afghanistan and Iran's support for the Northern Alliance. And in 2010, Iran was accused by the US and NATO already of supporting the Taliban (* banned in the Russian Federation). It is difficult to say how relations will develop after the withdrawal of US troops, but, logically, if the Taliban do not persecute the Shiites and peace comes to Afghanistan, relations should be friendly. Moreover, Iran is an important trading partner for Afghanistan.

I believe that the real threat to the Taliban and the Central Asian republics is the IS supporters operating there (banned in the Russian Federation). Back in 2015, they created Vilayat Khorasan with a zone of operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its leaders regard the territories of the Central Asian republics of the former USSR as bridgeheads. And this, and not the possibility of the arrival or seizure of power by the Taliban, is a serious threat, since they are located mainly along the borders of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. After the defeat in Syria and Iraq, surviving IS fighters began to flock to it, primarily Afghans and natives of Central and Central Asia and people from the Caucasus. According to data from open sources, the number of militants can reach several thousand people, including 2000 from Tajikistan alone, who have gone through the fighting in Syria and Iraq. It should be borne in mind that many IS fighters have returned home and are conducting organizational and propaganda work with the local population of the republic. Considering the existing threat from the radical Islamist organization “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” (banned in the Russian Federation), which has experience of military operations and supporters, there is a high probability of their joint actions or merging in the interests of spreading influence and organizing terrorist attacks on the territory of any of the republics of Central Asia. Attempts to overthrow the existing government and proclaim a local version of an Islamic state are also quite possible. The threat of this is especially great in relation to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, where the low standard of living, serious social and economic difficulties, the high level of corruption and stratification of the population and the leaders who stay in power, whose authority among the population is low. And at the same time, weak armies and power structures, the population professes Islam and can easily succumb to the propaganda of Islamists. All the prerequisites for the successful overthrow of the government are in place. Can flare up at any moment. And in Kyrgyzstan, another riot may happen already under the Islamist banners. The Kyrgyz are quickly changing power, but life does not improve from this. And this can push people towards the Islamists. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan seem to be relatively stable states, but everything can be there.

The media more than once reported about the destruction of the "minister of war" of the group of Gulmurod Halimov, the former commander of the OMON of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan, a Tajik. In 2017, it was reported that the Russian aviation destroyed it in Syria. But in January 2019, according to information allegedly from the special services of Tajikistan, it became known that he was alive and, together with a group of supporters, was in Afghanistan and was preparing an invasion of Tajikistan. He has stated such intentions more than once. And our 201st military base must be on the alert. In addition to its servicemen, there is, by and large, no one to fight the invading militants.

Taking into account that the Taliban are against their presence and activities in Afghanistan, I think that there will be a war between the Taliban and Khorasan for influence and power in Afghanistan. Moreover, among the youth of Afghanistan there are opinions that the Taliban is outdated and has lost its energy and dynamism in comparison with IS. But today "Khorasan" still has few resources, forces and influence among the Afghan population to withstand the war with the Taliban and the government forces of Afghanistan. Plus, the US and NATO will help the Taliban in this war if the Taliban are true to their obligations to the United States. Yes, and Russia can take an all possible part in eliminating this threat: both by providing armament assistance to the Taliban or the Afghan government, and through the CSTO by strengthening the borders with Afghanistan. Iran, Pakistan, China, India are also interested in removing the threat from the new terrorist entity. And everyone benefits from a peaceful and united Afghanistan. Each country has its own interest. And here full mutual understanding of all parties, including Russia, can be achieved.

As for the threats from Afghanistan against Russia and the former republics of the USSR, then, I believe, there are no obvious threats directly to Russia, except for drug trafficking. Moreover, the head of the Taliban delegation at the Doha talks, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, said in an interview with Uzbekistan 24 TV channel that in the future the Taliban would not allow the emergence of a threat, danger from Afghanistan to Uzbekistan or other Central Asian countries, and that the Taliban adhere to views of peaceful cooperation and plans to develop relations with the countries of Central Asia. But the East, as you know, is a delicate matter. Today he said one thing, tomorrow he did another ...

Therefore, we still cannot exclude the possibility of an attack by militants on the 201st military base in Tajikistan. But the possible penetration of groups of militants across the border is possible primarily, as mentioned above, in Tajikistan, where the seizure of power is also likely. In Turkmenistan, there is also a risk of attacks, but there are large areas of flat terrain, it is difficult to hide from aviation. But they can seize border settlements.

What can be done to prevent such a turn of events?


It is believed that the Taliban could be recognized as a political force if its leaders keep their promises. Negotiations with them have already been conducted at the Russian Foreign Ministry. It is also important to watch the outcome of the inter-Afghan peace talks between the government and the Taliban in Doha. But the recognition of the Taliban as a political force at the same time would mean an amnesty for their previous deeds. Whether representatives of the international community, including our country, are ready for this is an open question.
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  1. Observer2014
    Observer2014 11 October 2020 09: 45 New
    13
    What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: an assessment of the situation
    To the long-awaited visa regime with the former republics of Central Asia.
    1. kepmor
      kepmor 11 October 2020 09: 57 New
      +4
      visa regime say ??? ... well, well ...
      and who then would be for nothing to clean the streets and entrances in moskvabad ??? ... work hard at construction sites for a pittance ??? ...
      I doubt, however, that it would be so easy for our "business" to refuse such a freebie ...
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 11 October 2020 10: 05 New
        +4
        Quote: kepmor
        visa regime say ??? ...

        they don’t care. Change one letter in the passport and get a new passport, without prohibitions laughing Central Asia is geared towards labor migration in the Russian Federation
        1. Mitroha
          Mitroha 11 October 2020 10: 20 New
          0
          Silvestr, do you work in the migration service as well? Or so, just balabolite, as always?
          On the subject:

          except perhaps outright terrorists like Osama bin Laden

          Dear author, this outspoken terrorist was "raised and educated" by the US CIA, and it seems to me that this article should begin with the words "no matter what terrorist organization the United States has organized." wink
          1. Shurik70
            Shurik70 11 October 2020 10: 55 New
            +5
            Electronics that allow total control, as well as the means of Artificial Intelligence to control this electronics, are developing at a frantic pace. As well as become cheaper.
            China is already using drones to quickly identify violators of the mask regime.
            In Karabakh, the massive use of drones has proven its effectiveness.
            Fifteen years later, even Takzhikistan will be able to afford to patrol the borders with drones.
            Covert border crossing by militants, of course, will remain possible for highly qualified specialists. But mass crossing by "meat" and suicide bombers will be impossible. No "secret paths" will help
            1. Knell wardenheart
              Knell wardenheart 11 October 2020 11: 11 New
              +3
              And everything is so, but as long as the operator is sitting there somewhere, there will always be a human factor, they can always find a weak link and give it their paws.
            2. Captain Pushkin
              Captain Pushkin 11 October 2020 19: 58 New
              0
              Quote: Shurik70
              Covert border crossing by militants will, of course, remain possible for highly skilled professionals

              There are no problems with the border and there were no problems. Pay the tax and go-carry-carry. Our border guards interfered with business there, but there were enough locals in the border troops. If someone builds a new house in the village, it means a border guard or a carrier.
          2. New Year day
            New Year day 11 October 2020 11: 49 New
            +2
            Quote: Mitroha
            Silvestr, do you work in the migration service as well?

            Familiar Uzbeks come back after violating the time spent with us. And they say, it's a system. They have
            1. Mitroha
              Mitroha 11 October 2020 17: 37 New
              +4
              Quote: Silvestr
              Quote: Mitroha
              Silvestr, do you work in the migration service as well?

              Familiar Uzbeks come back after violating the time spent with us. And they say, it's a system. They have

              That is, about the daughter of an officer?
          3. dorz
            dorz 11 October 2020 14: 05 New
            -4
            What should Russia prepare for ...

            It is necessary to show, for example in Syria, readiness to use nuclear weapons, Assad will give permission. Or everyone will have to convert to Islam in the near future.
        2. Dimy4
          Dimy4 11 October 2020 12: 39 New
          +3
          they don’t care.

          The Uzbeks were working, in Russian they weren't kicking. But everyone has the right to category C, everyone is new.
      2. CommanderDIVA
        CommanderDIVA 11 October 2020 21: 17 New
        +1
        Uzbeks do not work for pennies, at a construction site from 90 to 110 thousand rubles a month
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 11 October 2020 11: 17 New
      +3
      Quote: Observer2014
      To the long-awaited visa regime with the former republics of Central Asia.

      Still, all the Russians of whom there are more than one million to take out
    4. Civil
      Civil 11 October 2020 12: 25 New
      -1
      1. This is now the territory of influence of the PRC.
      2. The Chinese have experience in bringing order to the population. True by the most brutal methods.
      3. If the Chinese enter Afghanistan, the population will be assimilated.
      1. Simargl
        Simargl 12 October 2020 07: 21 New
        0
        Quote: Civil
        If the Chinese enter Afghanistan, the population will be assimilated.
        Assimilated - hardly fast. But Afghanistan, as a state, will only be in history.
      2. Sergej1972
        Sergej1972 13 October 2020 10: 49 New
        +1
        Experience shows that Muslims in the PRC are not assimilated. Neither Uighurs nor Kazakhs. In addition, the PRC authorities officially consider the country a multinational state and have created several autonomous regions equated to provinces, plus a bunch of autonomous districts, autonomous counties and even national volosts and villages within the provinces and autonomous regions.
    5. Hypertension
      Hypertension 11 October 2020 14: 18 New
      +1
      It will be like in Karabakh. Central Asians, who call Russia an occupier and want to close the 201st base, will yell: Russia help!
  2. New Year day
    New Year day 11 October 2020 09: 50 New
    0
    What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: an assessment of the situation

    the border to a real barn.
    1. Tank hard
      Tank hard 11 October 2020 09: 57 New
      +4
      Quote: Silvestr
      the border to the real barn

      Which one? Tajik-Afghan or Russian-Kazakh, your opinion as an expert on Central Asia is interesting. hi
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 11 October 2020 10: 03 New
        -7
        Quote: Tank Hard
        Which one? Tajik-Afghan or Russian-Kazakh, your opinion as an expert on Central Asia is interesting.

        without scoffing! What do you think? Or is there no dummy? - Will you arrange an open door year? After "balancing" the Caucasus, what will you do?
        1. Tank hard
          Tank hard 11 October 2020 10: 05 New
          -1
          Quote: Silvestr
          Or is there no dummy?

          Sylvester, rudeness is punishable here, don't you know. wink
          1. New Year day
            New Year day 11 October 2020 10: 10 New
            -1
            Quote: Tank Hard
            Sylvester, rudeness is punishable here, don't you know.

            и
            Quote: Tank Hard
            as an expert on Central Asia.

            I already know your tonality
            1. Tank hard
              Tank hard 11 October 2020 10: 12 New
              -1
              Quote: Silvestr
              I already know your tonality

              So you, Sylvester, haven't answered which border to close, don't you know?
              1. New Year day
                New Year day 11 October 2020 10: 17 New
                -4
                Quote: Tank Hard
                So you, Sylvester, did not answer which border to close, you do not know

                What to prepare for Russia and Central Asia against the background of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan
        2. Tank hard
          Tank hard 11 October 2020 10: 24 New
          +1
          Quote: Silvestr
          without scoffing! What do you think?

          I don't think, I know. Although I do not consider myself an expert on all issues, unlike you. So you were not honored to answer which border should be closed to (your expression) barn lock. So, they will not close the border, because for this it is necessary to abolish visa-free travel with the CIS states friendly to the Russian Federation, to rewrite the charters of organizations, but what, some organizations will have to be closed. And on the border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan (for example) border troops and outposts of the Russian Federation seem to be gone. It’s strange that experts like you don’t know such simple things. Although, why is it strange? laughing
          1. ycuce234-san
            ycuce234-san 11 October 2020 15: 13 New
            +1
            And on the border of Afghanistan with Tajikistan (for example) border troops and outposts of the Russian Federation seem to be gone.

            This, by the way, is a real subject for agreements with the Afghan government that changed after the departure of the Americans and for help - namely, a good and high-quality border service on the part of the Afghans. All the same, they need to fight drug trafficking and they have the determination to bring this fight to the end. Therefore, agreements will be required on the creation of some kind of unified border structures with all Central Asian states, together with the Afghans, and assistance in this matter. In addition, it is necessary to somehow occupy the population of tribal formations, in exchange for the lost income from drug trafficking: it will be necessary to provide assistance in the field of agriculture, mining and open the Russian market for Afghan products: to build modern agricultural holdings on Afghan soil, open mining and processing enterprises in the Afghan mountains , create a local construction market, build railway lines and tunnels for the transportation of mining and agricultural raw materials by a single Afghan railway state company. That is, economic agreements are also needed. If Russia does not do this, no one will do it, since there are no other close and transportable countries with large and capacious markets near Afghanistan and the problem of drug trafficking will not be solved.
            1. Tank hard
              Tank hard 11 October 2020 15: 43 New
              +4
              Quote: ycuce234-san
              namely, a good and efficient border service on the part of the Afghans.

              Do you really believe that?
              Quote: ycuce234-san
              and assisting them in this matter. In addition, it is necessary to somehow occupy the population of tribal formations, instead of the lost income from drug trafficking: it will be necessary to provide assistance in the field of agriculture, mining and open the Russian market for Afghan products: to build modern agricultural holdings on Afghan soil, to open mining and processing enterprises in the Afghan mountains , create a local construction market, build railway lines and tunnels for the transportation of mining and agricultural raw materials by a single Afghan railway state company. That is, economic agreements are also needed. If Russia doesn't do it, nobody will,

              Some kind of deja vu. The USSR was only engaged in the development of everything that was possible, each republic had its own film studio, they built industries for all, some from scratch, forgiven and forgive debts, how did it end ?! All these good wishes lead in one direction, known. You need to develop your own country, people and economy, and for some, at least build a country, create a modern industry, and they will continue to run around the squares with stones one after another, for each has his own. request
              1. ycuce234-san
                ycuce234-san 11 October 2020 16: 03 New
                0
                Our profit is the absence of unwanted migrations and radicalization of the population, cheap mining and agricultural raw materials, mining chemical products (fertilizers, chemical concentrates, etc.), textiles and, ideally, rolled products, building materials (cement, sawn decorative stone, etc.) and that then from assembly in mechanical engineering (maybe even in 20 years we will be able to assemble Russian chips at cheap labor - if everything settles down in their country).
                Now denarkotization is being carried out by force and military methods, which at the same time puts the tribes in a situation of choice between poppy and hunger and will lead to the consolidation of the tribes on the basis of the struggle against the only force capable of centralized control of the country and plunge the Afghans into a new round of chaos and in front of the already experiencing serious problems inside, Russia will face the issue of replacing the withdrawn American troops with its own for decades (moreover, radical organizations and other hot spots will not disappear anywhere, and radicals will generally settle there on a comfortable permanent residence), and fight the problems inside the country. Everything good in life is never free, especially for the short-sighted.
                1. Tank hard
                  Tank hard 11 October 2020 16: 08 New
                  +1
                  Quote: ycuce234-san
                  Our profit is the absence of unwanted migrations and radicalization of the population,

                  Well, you probably know the schemes (the reason) for which migrants are brought to the country. I can finally sketch out an approximate version, one of them, without names and places of action, but I think you already know. Profits .. request
                  1. ycuce234-san
                    ycuce234-san 11 October 2020 16: 17 New
                    -1
                    They will also be transported from Afghanistan, if far-sightedly not to attend to the local strong government, a strong Afghan border service and employment.
                    People importing labor are not interested in the side effects.
                    Therefore, it is important and profitable to have cement and brick factories, carpet weaving and stone mills, quarries and mines in the Afghan mountains - otherwise you will have to have Russian outposts there, not your own Afghan ones.
            2. Captain Pushkin
              Captain Pushkin 11 October 2020 20: 08 New
              +1
              Quote: ycuce234-san
              a good and well-functioning border service on the part of the Afghans. All the same, they need to fight drug trafficking and they have the determination to bring this fight to the end.

              Drugs in Afghanistan, this is for a long time. The Taliban stopped fighting it long ago; it is now their main source of funding.
              And with those volumes and money, not a single border, including ours, can stand.
              And you shouldn't rely on Afghan-Tajik and other Uzbek and Kazakh ones at all.
              1. ycuce234-san
                ycuce234-san 12 October 2020 19: 27 New
                0
                As they stopped, they will resume. Recognition and the status of official power for the political party are incompatible with the protection of drug production. And it will have a legal source of income that is independent of drug production (the state budget of Afghanistan), which will need to be filled with taxation of the population, business and, therefore, to develop this legal business for this. And this government will have the legal legitimacy to officially combat drug and arms trafficking. Crossing several well-controlled borders greatly complicates the delivery of contraband - therefore, that is why, it is necessary to strengthen not only our own but also all possible foreign borders on the way of illegal activity, which work as a kind of filters; to conduct international treaty activities in this matter, and assistance programs.
                1. Captain Pushkin
                  Captain Pushkin 12 October 2020 19: 47 New
                  0
                  Who can argue, it is better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick. The problem is how to transform from the first to the second.
    2. Doccor18
      Doccor18 11 October 2020 10: 28 New
      0
      the border to a real barn.

      What's the point? Whoever wanted is already here ...
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 11 October 2020 11: 57 New
        0
        Quote: Doccor18
        What's the point? Whoever wanted is already here ..

        The point is that obtaining / changing passports in Uzbekistan for subsequent migration, for example, is put on stream.
        Do you find differences in the faces of Asians? For us they all look the same. The face is one, but the passports are different. And since there is such a loophole, then the migrant may not use it
        1. Sergej1972
          Sergej1972 13 October 2020 10: 55 New
          +1
          It is difficult to confuse a Kazakh or Kyrgyz in appearance with an Uzbek. Turkmens also have specific faces. And within these ethnic groups there is a huge variety of types. For example, the Chinese have never seemed alike to me, for example. When you communicate with students, you immediately remember the appearance of each of them.
    3. georgiigennadievitch
      georgiigennadievitch 11 October 2020 10: 58 New
      +2
      Since this is a troublesome and monetary business, we must now close the border of the Kazakhs with the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, otherwise we will have to repel the hordes near Orenburg, Novosibirsk, Omsk, etc.
    4. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 11 October 2020 11: 18 New
      0
      Quote: Silvestr
      the border to a real barn.

      border with whom?
  3. Tank hard
    Tank hard 11 October 2020 09: 52 New
    +5
    To what? To the next influx of migrants, with all the joys and sorrows that follow from this. request
    1. Phil77
      Phil77 11 October 2020 10: 30 New
      +4
      Quote: Tank Hard
      To the next influx of migrants, with all the joys and sorrows that follow from this

      And * immigrants * from, not even the 20th century! angry
  4. Vitaly Tsymbal
    Vitaly Tsymbal 11 October 2020 10: 09 New
    +6
    The author did not mention the two main players in Afghanistan. This is Pakistan, by the way, it was there that the Taliban were "born" and are still based, and almost half of the Pashtuns live in Pakistan. There is also China with its ambitions of the "Great Silk Road" and the Hazaras, whom China recognizes as almost a kindred ethnic group. I think that the future of Afganitsan depends to a greater extent on the policy of Pakistan and China, to a lesser extent on Iran and even more so on the Saudis (this is about ISIS),
    1. Sergei Sovetkin
      11 October 2020 10: 17 New
      +1
      Yes, I missed about Pakistan. I agree. But his role will not be so great. There is about China and India. But there's more economy
      1. Vitaly Tsymbal
        Vitaly Tsymbal 11 October 2020 14: 01 New
        0
        Sergei. The role of Pakistan, believe me, was in Afghanistan 82-84, much more than all other countries combined ... These are nomads, these are tribes separated by borders, these are military camps for training militants, this is also the religious center of the Taliban. Pakistan only during the time of our (Soviet) presence openly expressed support for the spirits, otherwise it did not officially intervene in its western regions inhabited by Pashtuns (they were afraid of an interethnic conflict within Pakistan), but always wanted to make the Pashtun lands in Afghanistan their own. In those parts, they still believe that the British did not draw the borders correctly ...
        1. Sergei Sovetkin
          11 October 2020 14: 35 New
          -1
          I served in TurkVO from 82 to 89 years. And about the role of Pakistan, both then and now in the know. And about Waziristan, and about where Bin Laden lived before his death. But Pakistan as a base for the mujahideen then and now is one thing. And the position of official Islamabad is separate. And the Taliban do not particularly pray for the central government in Pakistan. They deal with the United States, and Pakistan is important for them, but not critical.
        2. Sergei Sovetkin
          11 October 2020 14: 38 New
          -1
          Yes, and I don't take seriously the version about the murder of Najibullah with the participation of the Pakistani special services for the sake of changing the border.
          1. Kasym
            Kasym 11 October 2020 16: 23 New
            +1
            Sergei, it is not profitable for American hawks to leave Afghanistan. They withdrew from the treaty on medium and short-range missiles. By locating them in Afghanistan, China, Iran, and the whole of Central Asia with the industrial regions of the Urals are under attack. So there is little faith in Trump's statements - he will face opposition from his military-industrial complex and the Pentagon.
            I agree that the Taliban are now the least evil. They quickly coped with drugs there and are unlikely to go outside the country, because they need international recognition.
            IS will not be able to gain a foothold there without funding and arms supplies.
            Nobody helps Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Their resources are too limited. Therefore, if NATO members leave and the Taliban begin to seriously oppress them, then a civil war may break out according to a new scenario. The same Tashkent will not abandon its Uzbeks. Or how we helped Ahmad Shah Massoud and Dostum when Tajiks and Uzbeks pushed back the Taliban before NATO forces entered ... An agreement is still in force to ban the supply of weapons and other assistance to "illegal armed groups" in Afghanistan. Therefore (if NATO members leave) a lot will depend on how the locals (Pashtuns, Uzbeks, Tajiks, etc.) agree with each other. You also can't discount all these drug lords sitting in high offices. hi
            1. Sergei Sovetkin
              11 October 2020 20: 45 New
              0
              The Taliban are already pursuing a smart foreign policy, making peace-loving statements and calming Uzbekistan. And counting on the fact that Tashkent will influence Dostum. Their external expansion is not yet attractive and is not planned. This is their difference with the caliphate. I don't think they will agree to a broad coalition government. But they can give the post to the same Dostum. Keep the current one for him.
              1. Sergei Sovetkin
                11 October 2020 20: 51 New
                -1
                And so they have no reason to fear Tashkent. It is Tashkent that needs to fear them. If Dostum's Uzbeks do not go blue to the world and begin to behave differently from the Taliban, then the latter will quickly organize a cheerful life for them and such that millions of refugees will flee to Uzbekistan. Plus, Tashkent itself is vitally interested in friendship with the Taliban for the sake of fighting its Islamists. So who needs who more is a big question. Precisely not even a question.
                1. Kasym
                  Kasym 12 October 2020 17: 07 New
                  0
                  It is hard for me to imagine that only the Taliban - Pashtuns (after the withdrawal of NATO) will sit in the Afghan government. Other ethnic groups will strongly dislike this.
                  The Taliban, which is dominated by Pashtuns, have advantages over others only in that someone (in my opinion, Pakistan, Pashtuns living there) supplies them with weapons. This was the main reason for the rupture of relations between the United States and Pakistan, or rather, the tension in relations.
                  So the point is that Tashkent will not allow the crowd of refugees and intervene. In my opinion, the reason for Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the CSTO was precisely the fact that the Uzbeks did not want to obey the agreements on the ban on the supply of weapons. armed formations in Afghanistan. I'm not even speaking for Tajiks - the second largest ethnic group. group of Afghanistan (here the Chinese can also start delivering various aid).
                  Remember what Dostum said when he knocked out IS from the border regions of Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. "Give us only weapons and I can handle the militants myself" (approximately).
                  I repeat, all the rest of the ethn. the groups quietly sit "on the fifth point" only because they do not have the resources (like the Taliban) and weapons for active work. In Afghanistan, Masud's nephew begins to enjoy authority among Tajiks.
                  Tashkent, Dushanbe and Beijing will fit in for Tajiks and Uzbeks (this is besides us - other Central Asian countries), Iran will definitely fit in for the Hazaras (they are now even in Syria, at Tehran's request, helping Assad). The Pashtuns will be forced to restrain their ardor and listen not only to their fellow countrymen, but also to neighboring countries - otherwise they will not be recognized. It should not be forgotten that the Taliban have practically no heavy weapons; which we can deliver to our opponents. hi
                  This is my opinion, Sergei.
                  1. Kasym
                    Kasym 12 October 2020 17: 16 New
                    0
                    Sergey, what will the Taliban answer if the Uzbeks and Tajiks have MLRS, art, ATGMs with grenade launchers, maybe even BTTs with aviation? They (Uzbeks and Tajiks) have experience in military operations. They only need help with this.
                    Agree, there is something to think about here.
                    1. Sergei Sovetkin
                      12 October 2020 21: 10 New
                      -1
                      There is, of course, but even more reason for Patin - to have a peaceful and united Afghanistan, albeit under the Taliban. Dustam always talked a lot, to the point of blue zero. Although he managed to survive in front of everyone. That means he knows how to keep his nose in the wind. Will be friends with the Taliban too
            2. vladcub
              vladcub 11 October 2020 21: 09 New
              0
              The "dog wedding" will begin there, and how will it end?
      2. Petro_tut
        Petro_tut 13 October 2020 19: 53 New
        0
        The topic of drug producers was somehow touched upon in passing; under the Taliban, it seems, production there tends to zero?
  5. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 11 October 2020 10: 13 New
    +2
    What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: an assessment of the situation

    Probably for the best? belay Is this the only problematic area along the entire Russian border? By the way, there is 40 cm of the border for every Russian, isn't it time to start privatizing the “profitable place”?
    I am afraid that the predictions about the sad fate of Russia will soon show themselves in all their glory. Another, perfectly true prediction:
    ... To live in this wonderful time (when everything "settles down" in Russia)
    Neither me nor you have to ...
    Share, optimistic altruists, your inventions? Tell us how, with a wave of the constitutional magic wand, a PUBLIC HAPPINESS will be drawn from the bunker ... belay
    It took only a few years to discover that the old "Tsar Dodon" would be threatened from all sides ... One misfortune of neither the astrologer nor the "golden cockerel" is observed in the country ... Although, there are enough roosters ...
    1. New Year day
      New Year day 11 October 2020 10: 18 New
      +2
      Quote: ROSS 42
      One problem is that neither the astrologer nor the "golden cock" is observed in the country ..

      "some are gone, and those are far away" A.S. Pushkin
    2. vladcub
      vladcub 11 October 2020 21: 19 New
      -1
      Everything that happens in the Russian Federation is the fault of the Communist Party and Zyuganov. How many times did the ERiki just introduce themselves, so that the communists would place them, but they only pour from empty to empty
      The trouble is that there is no adequate opposition leader for the people to believe in!
      Remember how Prilepin was admired here, and then Platoshin. This is all due to the fact that the people ALREADY DO NOT BELIEVE the Communist Party!
    3. CommanderDIVA
      CommanderDIVA 11 October 2020 21: 31 New
      0
      Don't bury us ahead of time, don't you broadcast from Ukraine?
      1. Ross xnumx
        Ross xnumx 12 October 2020 06: 05 New
        0
        Quote: CommanderDIVA
        Don't bury us ahead of time, don't you broadcast from Ukraine?

        What a nasty habit of blaming everything on Ukraine, USA, GB, Poland, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Belarus (on Lukashenka), Israel, Georgia ...
        Yes, we live here, in Russia, in Kuzbass, if you are too lazy to read the posts. Has anything changed from this? The average (at least) pension in the country equaled the required 25 rubles? Or the salaries of state employees and ordinary workers allow "to multiply and multiply"? You should give comments from Andrey Karaulov and Poltoranin (these people are a little further from the sofa and were closer to the "top") ...

        I'm just wondering what 48 pleasures a site user gets when he gets an answer to his interesting question:
        Quote: CommanderDIVA
        not broadcasting from Ukraine?

        Or do you think that in the same Ukraine there are no adequately thinking people, and all the polls are only "Maidan", "jump" and "troll"?
        And I'm disgusted with well-fed people who are confident only in their righteousness, which is based on the righteousness of a superior boss ...
        I do not like the confidence of a well-fed
        Better let the brakes fail!
        It's a shame to me that the word "honor" is forgotten,
        And what is the honor of slander for the eyes.
        1. CommanderDIVA
          CommanderDIVA 12 October 2020 08: 22 New
          0
          In how you burst, it just poured, take care of your nerves, they will probably come in handy)
          1. Ross xnumx
            Ross xnumx 12 October 2020 10: 52 New
            -1
            Quote: CommanderDIVA
            In how you burst, it poured straight, take care of your nerves

            Probably the teachers were good, they taught me to express my own thoughts in three dimensions. And don't worry about my nerves: why take care of what is not ...
            wassat
  6. Connor MacLeod
    Connor MacLeod 11 October 2020 10: 19 New
    0
    The heroin traffic will decrease.
  7. Ivan90
    Ivan90 11 October 2020 11: 07 New
    -5
    Quote: Observer2014
    What should Russia and Central Asia prepare for amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: an assessment of the situation
    To the long-awaited visa regime with the former republics of Central Asia.


    But what about the fight against Great Russian chauvinism? Are you a Bandera fascist?
  8. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 11 October 2020 11: 37 New
    +4
    What is there now? What is Afghanistan in general? Afghanistan is an ancient trade crossroads, a mass of caravan paths. Due to the fact that the United States has been "resisting communism" there for many decades, legal goods are almost not represented there. It also plays a role in the fact that the carrying capacity of mountain trails is relatively small. There are huge deposits of minerals, but they cannot be developed, only the USSR had a chance to work with them (which would make Afghanistan flourish unprecedented in its history), but the USSR no longer exists, so all this will continue to roll in the ground like a dead weight.
    Also, Afghanistan is an old English fiefdom of drug production and drug trade. However, the Americans drove out, partially killed, the British, and began industrial production and drug trafficking using their military infrastructure. And that will be?
    The departure of the Americans means the departure of the roof of the color "numbers". And also the fact that the export of dope will drop dozens of times, because NATO planes will stop flying. All this will lead to the fact that incomes, to which they are so accustomed in the country, will fall tenfold. What exactly will be called what will seize power there, and who is the most "dynamic" there, do not care, it does not matter in the least. However, dynamic means rich. That is, pushing the dope more than anyone else.
    We should expect an extraordinary activation of various Afghan groups in search of buyers for various types of nonsense, and the organization of new routes and corridors for its delivery to Europe. What will the CIA's units resist, which will struggle to maintain control over the Afghan drug traffic, albeit thinner? Naturally, the CIA will try to provide transit, preferably through Russia, so that to the agents they already have here, they will add more new ones, from among the people who own traffic flows. However, most likely they have already bought them, so they will simply be taken for the aphedrone stronger, so that they do not try to break loose. Some will be killed, naturally, to intimidate.
    1. vladcub
      vladcub 11 October 2020 21: 05 New
      0
      The departure of the Americans is not yet a fait accompli. There will begin a redistribution of power - now the Taliban is united, and then squabbles will surely begin: “moderates” and “radicals”, and this is not a one-day process. It may well be possible to come to an agreement with some of the leaders. Here is the question who will agree on what conditions?
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 12 October 2020 09: 12 New
        -1
        Moderates and radicals, they sell rubbish in paper and plastic packaging. Will be able to negotiate with those whom the rest of the traders will not kill, and the conditions? A channel to Europe, and to its territory too. And they will agree. Without this, nothing will happen. The USSR could stop drug trafficking and replace the drug economy with mining and processing complexes. Russia will have to participate in the drug trade, at least closing its eyes.
  9. And why do you need
    And why do you need 11 October 2020 12: 28 New
    +1
    The situation in Tajikistan is not easy.

    "Leader of the Nation - Founder of Peace and National Unity" Emomali Rahmon has officially ruled the country since 1994.

    Society is tired of the family: in conditions of large-scale social discontent, any extra factor (including outside influence) can provide an escalation of protest and coup attempts.

    Tajikistan is an ineffective bankrupt state, totally dependent on the remittances of migrants from Russia, as well as Russian and Chinese aid.

    China views its assistance to Tajikistan as an instrument of influence.

    The consequence of this is the transfer of a number of territories, which Dushanbe periodically gives into the possession of China in exchange for "financial assistance."

    During the pandemic, remittances from Russia fell sharply, and many migrants returned home, which creates additional tension within the country.

    Rakhmon's main hope is in Russia: Moscow is able to control Tajik guest workers (1-1,5 million people), which is extremely important for social stability.

    An equally important factor is the contingents of Russian troops that continue to guard Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan.

    During the decades of its reign, a purely secular regime did not form a national ideology, and Rahmon's struggle with various manifestations of Islam turned passionate youth against the current government.

    Typically, the authorities often impose restrictions and do not allow adolescents to enter the mosques.

    The Party of Islamic Revival of Tajikistan, banned in the country, continues its activities in exile, and Dushanbe's attempts to extradite its leaders from Turkey and European countries are far from always successful.

    In the context of increasing turbulence in Central Asia, Turkey and the UK will not fail to take advantage of the situation, increase their influence and begin another round of the Great Game.

    Unlike all the republics of Central Asia, Tajikistan has a non-Turkic-speaking population, but the ethno-linguistic factor will not prevent Ankara from pushing for escalation.

    The obvious instrument of influence is the Islamic factor and coordinated online activity aimed at weakening the Rahmon regime and a coup.

    Additional and powerful tension could be created by the export of instability and armed Islamists from Afghanistan, which is regulated by Washington.
  10. 72jora72
    72jora72 11 October 2020 12: 48 New
    0
    someone bought a job
    ̷G̷e̷n̷e̷r̷a̷l̷ ̷, ̷a̷d̷m̷i̷r̷a̷l̷, Marshal Dostum is a living example of this ......
  11. samarin1969
    samarin1969 11 October 2020 13: 28 New
    +1
    Alien problems of absolutely alien peoples! Withdraw the 201st base, close the border - and there are no problems!
    But the mafia, which makes money on drug trafficking and migrants, has too much power in the Russian Federation. Because of one drug, it would be worth to freeze all contacts with Central Asia by 100%.
  12. Operator
    Operator 11 October 2020 13: 41 New
    -2
    Russia should leave Afghanistan, Central Asia and Kazakhstan on their own, create a sanitary zone in Northern Kazakhstan, withdraw from the OPCW and begin large-scale production of Novichok CWA.
  13. Doctor
    Doctor 11 October 2020 15: 06 New
    0
    It is strange that no one is happy about the possible withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan.
    Enlightenment has come ...

    Or else it will be when they leave Europe and the Germans shake off the dust from "Mein Kampf". bully
    1. Tank hard
      Tank hard 11 October 2020 15: 50 New
      0
      Quote: Arzt
      It is strange that no one is happy about the possible withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan.
      Enlightenment or something came.

      For starters, they haven't gone anywhere yet.
      Quote: Arzt
      Whether it will still be when they leave Europe and the Germans shake off the dust from Mein Kampf

      The nation was reformatted there, there are no more those who fought with Junger "In steel storms".
      IMHO
      1. Doctor
        Doctor 11 October 2020 16: 30 New
        0
        The nation was reformatted there, there are no more those who fought with Junger "In steel storms".
        IMHO

        Hidden. Two lost wars taught to hide feelings.

        But it is already breaking through.
        https://lenta.ru/news/2018/11/10/nazi/
  14. ZEMCH
    ZEMCH 11 October 2020 15: 22 New
    +2
    What to prepare for Russia and Central Asia against the background of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan

    To strengthen the borders and help the CSTO members, Afghanistan is an observer country in the CSTO.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. certero
    certero 11 October 2020 18: 41 New
    0
    Quote: kepmor
    to clean entrances in moskvabad ??? ... work hard at construction sites for a pittance ??? ...

    This has not been the case for a long time. Another thing is that they allow kickbacks to be done better and easier to roll out.
  17. vladcub
    vladcub 11 October 2020 20: 47 New
    +1
    Quote: dorz
    What should Russia prepare for ...

    It is necessary to show, for example in Syria, readiness to use nuclear weapons, Assad will give permission. Or everyone will have to convert to Islam in the near future.

    Are you serious or so from not fig doing blah blah?
  18. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 11 October 2020 21: 37 New
    -2
    After the withdrawal of the NATO contingent from Afghanistan, the Taliban will fight the ISIS, the opponents will be supported by the countries concerned, and the drug traffic, as it existed, will continue to exist.
  19. Petro_tut
    Petro_tut 13 October 2020 19: 46 New
    0
    No one knows what will happen after the release of the Amers, under the Taliban it seems that drug production was at zero, under the Amers it has grown, how it will be is a question ... hi
  20. Siberian54
    Siberian54 15 October 2020 22: 20 New
    0
    Do not be so naive, all American presidents are withdrawing troops from somewhere in the election campaign ...but in reality they left Vietnam only twice, pushed by thirty-fours and from Beirut, after the suicide bomber drove the truck into the barracks and slammed about 200 marines one-time