Military Review

Baku and Ankara may get a guerrilla war if Nagorno-Karabakh is captured

114

Contrary to initial forecasts, the armed conflict that broke out in the Caucasus, apparently, is far from over. Unlike previous exacerbations of the confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh, this time Azerbaijan, which is relying on open and powerful support from Turkey, does not intend to dwell on "trifles" like shelling and border clashes. There is a strong desire to take over the entire region, thus realizing the "final solution to the problem." But it is unlikely that it will be so - even if Baku succeeds in its plans.


The Karabakh conflict has taken too long history armed confrontation, so that it can be completed with a single military operation (or even a series of such). The whole tragedy of the situation is that both Armenians and Azerbaijanis consider this land their own, primordial. And its final and irrevocable loss will be perceived as a national tragedy and an indelible shame. This is the moral and psychological side.

Another aspect is that 150 thousand people now live on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh. Almost all of them are Armenians. Moreover, unlike 1991, today it is not just a kind of territory, but actually a full-fledged state - albeit small, albeit unrecognized. It has not only its own president, parliament and government, but also its own armed forces - the Defense Army of the Republic of Artsakh. This is at least 20 thousand fighters. The mobilization potential of AORA is estimated at 30 thousand more - after all, military service in the unrecognized republic is obligatory for all men.

Now let's try to assume what will happen if, under the pressure of certain circumstances (military defeat, demands of the world powers behind the parties to the conflict), Nagorno-Karabakh becomes Azerbaijani not only de jure, but also de facto. That is, it will be taken under real control by the army of Baku and Ankara supporting it. There is practically no doubt that this will be followed by a mass deportation from there of Armenians, that is, practically the entire present population. Will all one hundred and fifty thousand people living in Artsakh (of which at least a third are more or less combat-ready potential fighters) accept such a fate meekly and resignedly? This raises huge doubts.

The geographic and natural conditions of the Caucasus are extremely conducive to sabotage and guerrilla warfare. Those who have not resigned themselves to the "occupation", who have lost everything they have acquired, who are eager to avenge their dead relatives and friends, will simply go to the mountains, where there are probably already prepared bases for maintaining a long and persistent guerrilla. People who know every stone, every path, have military training and combat experience, as well as high motivation to fight, will become a very big problem for those who came to the land that they consider theirs.

It is well known that any serious partisan movement has a chance of success only if it is constantly and generously fed from the outside, from the "mainland" from where weapon and ammunition, new fighters and instructors. In this case, Armenia will almost inevitably play a similar role. Yes, at the official level, Yerevan, most likely, will completely deny its own involvement in the "people's avengers" of Artsakh, but this will in no way prevent it from secretly supporting and ensuring their activities.

At the moment, Ankara claims that there are allegedly “specialists” (including those in the tactics of guerrilla warfare) from the Kurdistan Workers' Party in the ranks of those fighting against Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is clear that the Turks see Kurds at every step, but the PKK representatives are ready to fight against Ankara and the armies and regimes it supports wherever possible. And if even now they are not in Karabakh, then if it falls under the Azerbaijani-Turkish control, they can certainly appear there - with all their extremely rich combat experience.

In turn, the Turkish side, which has an enormous history of confronting the PKK units, will not fail to transfer its own specialists in counter-guerrilla warfare to a new theater of war with it. This will, of course, lead to a new escalation of violence and further escalation of the conflict. On the part of the insurgents, "sympathizers" will catch up, Ankara may well send its mercenaries there from Syria and Libya. Ultimately, all this will inevitably result in a new round of armed confrontation, perhaps without large-scale battles using massive armored vehicles and artillery forces, but with numerous casualties on both sides, the number of which will multiply every day.

Be that as it may, the statements that the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has no military solution are not empty words, but a statement of the real state of affairs. Without a political settlement that suits all parties at least partially, the war will never end there. It will simply change its forms, continuing to take lives.
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Facebook / NKR Ministry of Defense
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  1. Alexey Sommer
    Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 17: 27
    -7
    This war does not stop there.
    Do Armenians want to become an analogue of the Kurds?
    No state, no problem.
    Talented peoples who do not agree, lose their state.
    1. Livonetc
      Livonetc 11 October 2020 17: 44
      +3
      Are you hinting about Turkey's invasion of Armenia?
      In this case, Turkey will face an extremely serious military defeat, and not only in the Caucasus ..
      1. Alexey Sommer
        Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 17: 48
        +7
        Gennady!
        No.
        I say that the Armenians expelled 1 Azerbaijanis from Karabakh in the 000s.
        What do you want to hear from me?
        1. Livonetc
          Livonetc 11 October 2020 17: 52
          12
          Quote: Alexey Sommer
          Gennady!
          No.
          I am not hinting. I write that the Armenians expelled 1 Azerbaijanis from Karabakh in the 000s.
          What do you want to hear from me?

          You wrote, "Do the Armenians want to become an analogue of the Kurds?"
          A people without a state.
          This can happen only with the seizure of the territory of Armenia by Turkey and the announcement of the restoration of the Ottoman Empire.
          If you meant the loss of the territory of Karabakh, then this does not leave the Armenian nation without a state.
          Express yourself more correctly for understanding.
          1. Alexey Sommer
            Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 17: 57
            -3
            All right.
            You have more precisely stated my idea.
            I just ask you to consider ..
            Armenia is not Russia. And Donbass and Karabakh should not be leveled.
            Donbass is OUR, and let them figure it out for Karabakh themselves.
            Do you understand me?
            Ida.
            The CSTO is a bunch of limitrophes.
            CSTO, this is Russia, and the rest ...
            Let them understand
            We will live without them, and they without us ...
            Look how ... hi
            1. Livonetc
              Livonetc 11 October 2020 18: 09
              +8
              I completely agree with you.
              But I don't like the term limitrophes.
              Extremely disrespectful and incorrect.
              You don't need to love "in the gums".
              But even the enemy should be respected.
              However, we will not survive without an accessible and loyal economic space.
              We need a market.
              And we cannot fail to fulfill our contractual obligations.
              Russia is a completely different reality than the Angloskax.
              And so, yes.
              Russia must finally return to itself, to its peoples.
              We deserve it.
              hi
              1. Alexey Sommer
                Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 18: 13
                0
                Quote: Livonetc
                But I don't like the term limitrophes.

                What we like and what we don't like matters little.
                You just need to understand what it means.
                In fact, Serbia pulled us into the First World War.
                How many millions did we pay for this?
                Is there any sense?
                My grandfather died for "Serbia" in World War II.
                So what?
                Yes, they went to ...
                Like the Armenians.
                I'm worried about Donbass ..
                1. Livonetc
                  Livonetc 11 October 2020 18: 17
                  +4
                  Well, Serbia does not fall under the term limitrophe.
                  Serbia was not involved.
                  Inadequacy of the power (actually the ruler) of Russia.
                  Which ultimately led to the destruction of the empire.
                  As they say, "the fish rots from the head."
                  And the next reincarnation of the empire was destroyed for the same reason.
                  1. Alexey Sommer
                    Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 18: 19
                    +4
                    Let's be more restrained now?
                    Let the Armenians figure it out themselves.
                    I have no relatives there.
                    1. Vladimir Mashkov
                      Vladimir Mashkov 11 October 2020 20: 26
                      -1
                      I can't even imagine how this intractable question will be resolved! The territory seems to be Azerbaijani. And about 90% of Armenians live there. Who do not want to live in Azerbaijan in any way! And Nakhichevan, separated by Armenia ... In the Russian Empire and in the USSR, it was bearable, but now? How to be ???
                      1. AK1972
                        AK1972 12 October 2020 15: 36
                        +2
                        Quote: Vladimir Mashkov
                        And about 90% of Armenians live there.

                        According to the latest population census, as many as SIX Azerbaijanis lived in Karabakh.
                2. Karabin
                  Karabin 11 October 2020 21: 59
                  +1
                  Quote: Alexey Sommer
                  In fact, Serbia pulled us into the First World War.

                  Even if Serbia did not exist on the map, war was inevitable. Each of the cousins ​​saw their goodness in her.
                  Quote: Alexey Sommer
                  My grandfather died for "Serbia" in World War II.
                  So what?

                  It is unlikely that our grandfathers had a choice not to fight for Serbia, Bulgaria or Poland. Nobody planned to end the war by reaching the state border.
                3. Oprichnik
                  Oprichnik 12 October 2020 00: 16
                  -1
                  Alexey Sommer is absolutely right. We need to worry about fellow tribesmen, brothers, and not about freeloaders from peripheral pseudo-states, betraying on the spot and to their own detriment.
                  1. Vadim_888
                    Vadim_888 13 October 2020 14: 10
                    +2
                    ... We need to worry about fellow tribesmen, brothers, and not about parasites from peripheral pseudo-states,

                    Don't worry and get nusrah
                    A year later, another on its borders from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea
              2. Megatron
                Megatron 12 October 2020 10: 02
                0
                However, we cannot live without an accessible and loyal economic space.

                Who told you that? Solntselic who wants to play nato and the eu? (Unsuccessful)

                And we cannot fail to fulfill our contractual obligations.

                The CSTO needs to be quietly disbanded after this mess, it’s very true: LIMITHMORPHES, there is nothing to fit in for them. And then all are so independent and independent, but what - RUSSIA PAMAHI! Let them live by themselves. And the visa regime, of course.

                PS during the capture of Karabakh, there will be another exodus of the Dashnaks in Sochi and Kuban,
                "for the joy" of the indigenous.
                1. Vadim_888
                  Vadim_888 13 October 2020 14: 13
                  0
                  ... The CSTO needs to be quietly disbanded after this mess,

                  One more for the Turks,
                  With this approach, Nusra will be from the Black Sea to the Chinese border hi
                  1. Megatron
                    Megatron 14 October 2020 15: 47
                    0
                    What are the Turks? What are you talking about?
                    It's just time to stop spending money on Armenian limit morphs.
                    Let the USA protect them, Iran, or whoever wants to. Well, send Armenians and Azerbaijanis home from Russia.
            2. ZEMCH
              ZEMCH 11 October 2020 21: 59
              +3
              So the war on the territory of Armenia is not going on, let them at least recognize the NKR themselves! Russia ALWAYS observes treaties with other countries!
        2. Lannan Shi
          Lannan Shi 11 October 2020 20: 48
          10
          Quote: Alexey Sommer
          I say that the Armenians expelled 1 Azerbaijanis from Karabakh in the 000s.

          So. Information for. The population of the NKR, in 1989, is less than 200 thousand. The districts between the NKR and Armenia occupied by the Armenians are about the same. Azerbaijanis in NKR make up 20% of the population. By districts ... Tsiferki is more difficult to find, but ... But in Lachin Armenians, in 1989 - 99%. Total. The evil Armenians drove out Azerbaijanis about 7-15 times. If they are kicked out, they will be called back and kicked out again. You have fun there. lol
          Em. Didn't your mother tell you as a child that lying is not good? It looks like no. Or you sincerely despise your mother. That for the Caucasus just oh.yes
          Now let's go over you. According to the first general census of 1897, the Baku and Elizabethan provinces of Azerbaijanis ranged from 58 to 60%. Year 1939 -58.5%. So far, everything is smooth. 1979 - 78%. Year 1989 - 83%. Year 1999 - 90%. Year 2009 - 92%. And you should not refer to the high birth rate. For the rest of the nationalities, the decline is not only in percentage, but also in absolute terms. There were more than half a million Russians in Azerbaijan in 1939, less than 1989 thousand in 400, now, God forbid, 100 ... In the period from 1989 to 2009 alone, you survived almost 700 thousand people from the country. Not fantasized, like your mulienne, but quite real ones, verified by your censuses. Do you still want to understand why the NK categorically does not want to be in your country? You yourself have created this situation. Offhand if, then approximately since the death of Stalin, they worked to ensure that the NK left you. And when they did achieve this, the Armenians suddenly became guilty. It's great that there is more to say.
          1. Revolver
            Revolver 11 October 2020 21: 41
            +6
            I had to talk with former Bakuvians, moreover, not only Jews and Russians, but also Azerbaijanis. So, before the well-known Baku events of 1990, leaflets were thrown into the mailboxes with literally the following content: "We give Armenians 3 days to leave, Russians 3 weeks, Jews 3 months", signed "Popular Front". And this despite the fact that they, without saying a word, accuse the Armenian leadership of those years in the beginning of the conflict, in particular, they say that it all began with the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia. I know, there is a forum member with the nickname "Yeraz" (which, most likely, means not a minibus clone of the old "Latvia", but "Yerevan Azerbaijanian"), ask him, he should be aware of.
        3. Maverick1812
          Maverick1812 12 October 2020 14: 04
          +2
          But what about 1988 Sumgait ?! Maybe the Armenians are legally wrong, but they know at the genetic level what will happen if they bend ...
        4. Meckajiuhe
          Meckajiuhe 13 October 2020 11: 40
          +1
          What nonsense. there the ratio has always been 25 AZ to 75 AR. So there should be how many? 3 Million Armenians? and there are 150 thousand, everyone knows each other.
        5. Vadim_888
          Vadim_888 13 October 2020 12: 47
          +1
          ... I say that the Armenians expelled 1 Azerbaijanis from Karabakh in the 000s.

          Have you counted them personally?
          There were 40 Azerbaijanis living in Karabakh, take a map of the USSR for 000 years, a publication where there is a population density and multiply by the area occupied by Armenians, you get no more than 90 .... you have to think with your own head, and not take numbers from propaganda sources ..
      2. imobile2008
        imobile2008 11 October 2020 18: 28
        +3
        Quote: Livonetc
        Are you hinting about Turkey's invasion of Armenia?
        In this case, Turkey will face an extremely serious military defeat, and not only in the Caucasus ..
        I would terminate the contract immediately after the anti-Russian protests. It is clear that this is a burden for us. We are obliged to fight for them, but no country will fight for Russia in the event of an attack!
        1. Livonetc
          Livonetc 11 October 2020 18: 38
          -1
          This would be a manifestation of weakness and a mistake in strategic planning.
          Go to the performances of any idiots.
          It is only necessary to pursue Russian interests.
          Ukraine has moved on to specific anti-Russian actions.
          Received specifically on the tinsel.
          And Armenia, in case of manifestations of active anti-Russian policy, will receive.
          And he will receive a withdrawal of the Russian base and a kick from the CSTO.
          In the meantime, only some layers are trending, it is not worth a damn.
          To be offended is the lot of maids.
          1. imobile2008
            imobile2008 11 October 2020 18: 40
            -1
            Do not be offended, throw off a burden under any pretext. Nobody will fight for us, why fight for someone!
          2. Kronos
            Kronos 11 October 2020 18: 46
            +1
            Where did you get it? How did it act against Russia and is it acting?
          3. Megatron
            Megatron 12 October 2020 10: 07
            +1
            What did Ukraine get "according to tinsel" there? Gas supplies, Gazprom's fine of 4 billion ye?

            Our coal, fuels and lubricants, diesel, with which they fuel tanks, electricity, nuclear fuel, are still going to them unreservedly.

            Solntseliky speaks every time about the "brotherly Ukrainian people". Although they could really be frozen and strangled, purely economically.
          4. Glory1974
            Glory1974 12 October 2020 10: 09
            0
            This would be a manifestation of weakness and a mistake in strategic planning.
            Go to the performances of any idiots.
            It is only necessary to pursue Russian interests.

            Anti-Russian street speeches mirrored Armenia's anti-Russian policy on the sidelines.
            When Pashinyan came to power, Armenia abandoned the already agreed action plan to resolve the Karabakh problem. A phased exchange of territories was planned. After abandoning this plan, Azerbaijan decided to launch a military operation, with the goal not to conquer Karabakh, but to return the occupied territories.
          5. Vadim_888
            Vadim_888 13 October 2020 12: 50
            +1
            ... And he will receive a withdrawal of the Russian base and a kick from the CSTO.

            Yes, and Russia will get jihadists along the perimeter of the southern borders from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea
    2. Shurik70
      Shurik70 11 October 2020 17: 46
      0
      Quote: Alexey Sommer
      No state, no problem

      Truly.
      As a result of the guerrilla war, Turkey itself may well disappear.
      And then Kurdistan will appear, and Armenia will grow in territories.
      It was not enough for Erdogan that Kurdish terrorism was.
      1. Alexey Sommer
        Alexey Sommer 11 October 2020 17: 49
        0
        Quote: Shurik70
        As a result of the guerrilla war, Turkey itself may well disappear.

        Approx.
        We will live and see.
    3. Russ
      Russ 11 October 2020 18: 16
      +3
      This war does not stop there.

      There is no forester on them ...
    4. iouris
      iouris 11 October 2020 22: 23
      -2
      Quote: Alexey Sommer
      Talented peoples who do not agree, lose their state.

      What is this nonsense? The people cannot be the subject of negotiations. It is not the people of Armenia that suffers defeat, but the state, and those who call themselves "elite". This means that this elite will be destroyed.
      About guerrilla warfare is a provocation. And there is nothing to discuss here.
      1. Vadim_888
        Vadim_888 13 October 2020 12: 52
        0
        ... About guerrilla warfare is a provocation. And there is nothing to discuss here.

        Of course it's a provocation, whoever remembers Sumgait and Baku in cash in '88 will understand what I mean
  2. Pashhenko Nikolay
    Pashhenko Nikolay 11 October 2020 17: 30
    +4
    In the era of drones, guerrilla warfare has become problematic. Except perhaps, but even then there must be some population left. But judging by the liberated villages, everyone is leaving as one.
    1. rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 11 October 2020 17: 42
      +7
      drones have one significant drawback, their effectiveness depends on the weather conditions, and since now it is autumn and there are rains, snow, cloudiness in the mountains, and the weather is changing rapidly in the mountains, the war for Aliyev is just beginning. that they captured it there in the plain
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 11 October 2020 18: 01
        +4
        There will be nowhere to take weapons, ammunition and food for partisanship if Azerbaijan closes the entire border with Armenia and drones fly as low as possible and it will be difficult to shoot them down.
      2. ccsr
        ccsr 11 October 2020 18: 12
        +3
        Quote: rotkiv04
        drones have one significant drawback, their effectiveness depends on weather conditions, and since it is autumn now and there are rains, snow, clouds ahead, and in the mountains the weather is changing rapidly, the war for Aliyev is just beginning.

        Their main drawback is not even this, but the fact that their control systems are subject to the influence of electronic warfare means, and this can lead to their destruction. But the trouble is that neither the Armenians nor the Azerbaijanis seriously dealt with this issue, and it will not work to train specialists capable of working on electronic warfare equipment in two or three months. That is why now the Azerbaijanis widely use Turkish drones, and the Armenians cannot oppose anything to them - they simply turned out to be not ready for such a war, so they are suffering losses from the UAV.
        1. Vsepomni
          Vsepomni 11 October 2020 18: 33
          +2
          They are stuck in the 20th century. The only thing that oppose us is being shot at our cities with rockets. Yesterday we got into a 4-storey building in Ganja. 9 killed, 17 injured. They shoot at the dam in Mingachevir. Armenia is shooting, although we are not at war with them. They hide behind Russia. They want to pit us against her. Our president will not turn out to be quite adequate
          1. Nosgoth
            Nosgoth 12 October 2020 03: 43
            0
            And rightly so. Azerbaijanis were the first to attack civilian targets. As usual they sang "and we are for sho?"
    2. saigon
      saigon 11 October 2020 18: 28
      +2
      Before the era of complex guerrilla warfare under the eye of drones, the whole of Karabakh must still be occupied, and this business is extremely slow. So the victorious reports are still worth waiting for.
      Apparently, they are advancing along the roads and they do not twist too much on the intersection, because the armor will not go everywhere there, and the Azerbaijanis are clearly not eager to fight an infantry battle.
    3. farm2009
      farm2009 11 October 2020 18: 40
      +8
      Well, the US has drones, did it help them a lot in Afghanistan? The Taliban control most of it.
  3. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 11 October 2020 17: 39
    +8
    It seems to me alone that if an article is not finalized, uninformative and does not have solid facts, but only assumptions, then the editorial board publishes it under a pseudonym. Which is then subjected to fair criticism.
    1. Nosgoth
      Nosgoth 12 October 2020 03: 49
      -2
      There is a popular saying: "When it seems, you need to be baptized."
  4. V1er
    V1er 11 October 2020 17: 47
    +4
    In 1563, the Turkish Sultan Suleiman I planned a campaign against Astrakhan in order to take it away from the Russians. But his vassal, the Crimean Khan, was not interested in such a remote region as in strengthening Turkish power over himself, and delayed the Turkish campaign. They had been preparing for war for several years and had brought supplies to Azov in advance. After the death of Suleiman I in 1566, his successor Selim II entrusted the conduct of the campaign to the Kafa Pasha Kasim. On May 31, 1569, Kasim set out with a 15 thousandth corps of janissaries and on the way joined the 50 thousandth army of the Crimean Khan Devlet Girey, 220 ships with equipment and food were sent to Azov. The Turkish sultan, confident of victory over the smaller Russian troops, allowed his soldiers to borrow money from the future sale of prisoners whom they hoped to capture in Astrakhan.
    The Turkish army, which included, in addition to the Janissaries and Tatars, also several thousand Sipakhs, Azaps and Akyndzhi, on September 16, 1569 besieged Astrakhan. At the same time, the Tatars began work on creating a canal connecting the Volga and Don, for the penetration of the Turkish fleet to the Volga and the Caspian.
    The balance of forces was in favor of the Turks. And yet they were defeated and fled, violating the Sultan's order to winter near Astrakhan. Skillful actions of the governor, Prince P.S. Serebryany-Obolensky, supported by another Russian army - ataman of the Zaporozhye Cossacks M.A. Vishnevetsky, forced the enemy to lift the siege. According to "History of Little Russia" N.A. Markevich (vol. 1, ch. III), the unexpected sortie of the Astrakhan garrison and the attack of the Cossack cavalry allowed the Russians to seize and turn their own artillery against the fleeing Turks, inflicting huge losses on them. On September 26, the Turks and Tatars decided to leave.

    The approaching Russian reinforcements of 15 thousand people dispersed the builders of the canal and defeated the demoralized 50-thousand army of the Crimean Tatars, who were protecting the builders. At the same time, the Turkish fleet near Azov was destroyed by a severe storm. In the spring of 1570, the ambassadors of Ivan the Terrible concluded a non-aggression pact in Istanbul
  5. stas
    stas 11 October 2020 18: 00
    10
    Erdogan needs to make a goat's face, and our government builds a nuclear power plant for him for Russian money.
    He has not yet answered for the downed Su-24!
    1. ccsr
      ccsr 11 October 2020 18: 16
      -1
      Quote: stas
      Erdogan needs to make a goat's face, and our government builds a nuclear power plant for him for Russian money.

      He partially worked out - he put the whole of Europe with the letter "G" with the help of refugees, and he made a mess with Greece and Cyprus, so we should be grateful to him for this. We should not underestimate our play by Erdogan against NATO and the United States - we live in it.
      1. stas
        stas 11 October 2020 18: 45
        +2
        It is not necessary to represent Erdogan as a friend of Russia, Turkey will never be like that. Our flirtation with Erdogan can harm us, which he is doing in Nagorno-Karabakh now.
        1. Vasya Lozhkin
          Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 21: 02
          +5
          Armenians like to pretend to be friends of Russia
          1. Vadim_888
            Vadim_888 13 October 2020 13: 05
            0
            ... Armenians like to pretend to be friends of Russia


            Someone, insert the video from this link, I can't get it off my phone, so that my eyes finally open up to the attitude towards Russians in arzeibadzhan
            http://t.me/reartsakh
        2. ccsr
          ccsr 12 October 2020 11: 13
          +1
          Quote: stas
          It is not necessary to represent Erdogan as a friend of Russia, Turkey will never be like that.

          I did not even try to do this - they will always be hostile to us. But we are simply obliged to use their arrogance against the West - it is in our national interests.
          Quote: stas
          Our flirtation with Erdogan can hurt us,

          I don’t think we would have flirted with him much, if not for the Ukrainian gas transit, which we are trying to get rid of, and not for our participation in helping Syria. But once we got into this shit, then at least we should get out of it with the least losses, and, if possible, set Erdogan against the Western world, which in my opinion we succeeded.
          Quote: stas
          what he is doing now in Nagorno-Karabakh.

          Yes, there and without him, the audience is still the same, so that we are just in time for the "freedom-loving mountaineers" to understand who will press them to the nail, if only Russia leaves the Caucasus. There will be fewer anti-Russian antics in Armenia - I hope so.
  6. Victorm
    Victorm 11 October 2020 18: 04
    -1
    There will be no guerrilla war there, nonsense. Control will be established over the border and any encroachments through it will be considered aggression and the response will be appropriate.

    Well, in light of the last strike by a tactical missile system on the sleeping area in Ganja - read the not entirely Soviet press at your leisure, they began to write a lot of interesting things.
  7. Victorm
    Victorm 11 October 2020 18: 05
    +2
    Quote: stas
    Erdogan needs to make a goat's face, and our government builds a nuclear power plant for him for Russian money.
    He has not yet answered for the downed Su-24!

    Replied. It was necessary to follow the news. He and the buses with Air Force pilots took off in the center of the capital only after driving away from the General Staff, and there was a helicopter fall, and much more.
    1. Kronos
      Kronos 11 October 2020 18: 49
      +3
      Oh, these fairy tales.
  8. vitvit123
    vitvit123 11 October 2020 18: 05
    +6
    I come to the conclusion that the Armenians, that the Azerbaijanis are equally bad in this situation. Azerbaijanis see animals in Armenians, those in Azerbaijanis. I began to think that both are right, because they are the same. Azerbaijanis bring the atrocities of Armenians, those Azerbaijanis, I think that both there and there it took place. I came to the conclusion that I am for no one in this situation, all are the same. Azerbaijan is more independent economically, I like it, but atrocities against Armenians were no less than those against Azerbaijanis. Armenians do not like their poverty and cunning.
    Only in agreement with Russia will everything be fine, but Russia is too correct ...
    1. saigon
      saigon 11 October 2020 18: 31
      +2
      Believe me, the rumors about the atrocities of both sides are highly exaggerated.
      There, everything is overgrown with rumors and very quickly.
      1. vitvit123
        vitvit123 11 October 2020 19: 25
        0
        Well, if they are exaggerated on both sides, then this does not change the essence of my comment. And then I spoke for the long history of the issue. Some others remember events that decades have already passed ...
    2. Megatron
      Megatron 12 October 2020 10: 11
      0
      Of course the bad ones, let them fight as much as they like, they would still be sent home from Russia as "unwanted elements." Where he was born - there it came in handy.
  9. svp67
    svp67 11 October 2020 18: 10
    +3
    Turkey already has a wealth of experience in fighting partisans and I am afraid that even here the Armenian side will have a hard time, given the fact that in Turkey the Kurdish militants are supported by a large local population, and the Armenian population is fleeing from Karabakh, leaving the territory of Azerbaijan, which will not use to settle it loyal population
  10. Alien From
    Alien From 11 October 2020 18: 15
    0
    It is doubtful that this Gordian knot will be quickly untangled this time. The probability of a partisan war is very high, everything is principled there.
    1. Vsepomni
      Vsepomni 11 October 2020 18: 37
      -3
      Russia secretly supplies Armenians with weapons. And they are shooting at our cities. Until this one stops the war will go on
      1. Mordvin 3
        Mordvin 3 11 October 2020 19: 16
        +5
        Quote: Vsepomni
        Russia secretly supplies Armenians with weapons.

        And how does this happen technically?
        1. Vsepomni
          Vsepomni 11 October 2020 19: 37
          -8
          By air special flights. And through Georgia. The Georgians manage to catch and detain. But not always
          1. Mordvin 3
            Mordvin 3 11 October 2020 19: 40
            +4
            Quote: Vsepomni
            The Georgians manage to catch and detain.

            If there is evidence, then raise the question at least at the UN, at least at NATO.
  11. maktub
    maktub 11 October 2020 18: 15
    +3
    If there is a mass exodus of Armenians from Karabakh, in the event of its capture, de-occupation - whatever you want to call it (which we are now seeing), there can be no talk of any guerrilla war. There will be no one to "rely" on.
  12. Victorm
    Victorm 11 October 2020 18: 21
    -3
    Quote: svp67
    Turkey already has a wealth of experience in fighting partisans and I am afraid that even here the Armenian side will have a hard time, given the fact that in Turkey the Kurdish militants are supported by a large local population, and the Armenian population is fleeing from Karabakh, leaving the territory of Azerbaijan, which will not use to settle it loyal population
    What kind of "loyal population" laughing laughing laughing The war is for the sake of the refugees to return to their homes, only recently have tent camps disappeared, houses and schools in freight trains - railway trains ... and so on, and so on, that is, at the very least, poor, but in the strong four walls, hundreds of thousands more.
  13. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 11 October 2020 18: 22
    +7
    Judging by the map from 10.10, Cassad, Vizir Aliyev is far from capturing the entire Karabakh. Well, everyone can check out the successes of the Iizer Blitzkrieg for themselves. If we bear in mind that the locals are fighting for their homes and families, then the outcome of the battle for Karabakh is not at all clear for the Turks.
    1. Vsepomni
      Vsepomni 11 October 2020 18: 40
      -2
      This is not a blitzkrieg. Ours try to return with little blood. We are in no hurry. We have waited 30 years and we can wait 100 years. Our President guaranteed immunity to the Armenians. A thin world is better than war. Sorry for people on both sides
      1. Kronos
        Kronos 11 October 2020 18: 50
        0
        If it were a pity you would not support the war.
        1. Vsepomni
          Vsepomni 11 October 2020 19: 47
          0
          I do not support either. This is Pashik, the puppet of Soros, brought to the next war. He pitted the peoples. So it’s not far from the big war. I went to NKR all the time. He danced and ate kebabs. And his wife posted a selfie in a military uniform against the background of a sniper exercise
      2. Keyser soze
        Keyser soze 11 October 2020 19: 39
        0
        .... we can wait 100 years.


        Yes, judging by. you can wait 100 years for advancement and success.
        1. Vsepomni
          Vsepomni 11 October 2020 19: 49
          -1
          So we are waiting. Our cause is right.
    2. Vasya Lozhkin
      Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 20: 58
      +3
      There is nothing to do on the ridges themselves. They are occupied by former settlements. Armenians, too, probably do not live there everywhere .. Almost two regions were liberated.
    3. Vasya Lozhkin
      Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 21: 00
      +1
      About the blitzkrieg and its failure, Baghdasaryan sings this song on TV, but the Armenians are not happy about it. Bombs are falling on their wild heads and there is no shelter. Like cockroaches hiding in cracks. And you are a "blitzkrieg"
  14. Doccor18
    Doccor18 11 October 2020 18: 22
    0
    Now let's try to guess what will happen if ... will be taken under real control by the army of Baku and Ankara supporting it.

    There will be 150.000 refugees.
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 12 October 2020 10: 15
      +1
      In Russia. And we will accept them and give them more apartments. Instead of local people on the waiting list.
  15. Victorm
    Victorm 11 October 2020 18: 53
    +1
    Quote: Doccor18
    Now let's try to guess what will happen if ... will be taken under real control by the army of Baku and Ankara supporting it.

    There will be 150.000 refugees.

    Less. Lives less constantly. Those who decide to leave will not be kept. We are talking about 1 million. refugees against 100 thousand. All people, but Armenians will be able to live only in the most mountainous part of Karabakh, NKAO, where they lived compactly before the start of the war, those who ran their household and business in the occupied territories will certainly lose it.
    The Karabakh Armenians who will remain most likely will be supported by the authorities themselves in an exemplary manner, as well as the Baku and Ganja Armenians living in Azerbaijan now.

    Another question, there are a lot of people stained with blood ... these of course will run and talk about atrocities or the threat of genocide - it will be easier to emigrate to Europe and the States. Many at one time specially sculpted documents for bribes in order to dump, I had such a friend in Belgium.
    1. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 15 October 2020 20: 32
      +1
      VictorM "these of course will run and talk about atrocities or the threat of genocide"
      And what is there to talk about atrocities ..))) There are videos and photos of Azerbaijani soldiers are already cutting their heads. Yes, they shoot prisoners, including the old man. True, the Azerbaijani officialdom declared it a fake. Well, supposedly, the Armenians shot themselves. As usual.))) Of course, you can call it a fake about the photo ... but don't explain it to the Armenians. I think, too, askers will cut bosko .... And we will all soon see this too. On the fleeing Armenians. I think no one will run anywhere. All the Armenians were already buried here.))) But the structures of the Karabakh Armenians are functioning, the armed forces too. There is a front line. So, wait and see.
  16. Aleks2000
    Aleks2000 11 October 2020 19: 23
    +1
    may receive, may not receive. You never know what someone says.

    Powerful oligarchs sent commoners to shed blood for each other. And they themselves sit in safety, pumping gas ...
  17. Revival
    Revival 11 October 2020 19: 46
    +1
    With the right approach, guerrilla warfare can be stopped, for an effective guerrilla war you need a loyal population
  18. smart fellow
    smart fellow 11 October 2020 19: 50
    +3
    Aliyev (through the Minister of Foreign Affairs) proposed at the talks in Moscow that the Armenians liberate 5 of the 7 regions and agree on a date for the transfer of the 2 remaining regions. The territory of the former NKAO should de facto remain for the Armenians, de jure for Azerbaijan. The transition of Karabakh to Azerbaijan is transferred to the "beautiful far away". As far as Aliyev can be trusted, he could wait another 30 years for the return of even the occupied regions, not to mention Karabakh. PaрShinyan left him no choice when in July this year the Armenians unleashed an armed conflict far from Karabakh with the use of heavy weapons and casualties. After that PaрShinyan stated that Karabakh is forever Armenian. Aliyev either had to leave his post, or start military actions to return the territories.
    The return of the occupied territories is not manna from heaven for Azerbaijan, but huge expenses for the construction and repair of infrastructure. Every day of confrontation is also costly for Azerbaijan. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan pays for weapons to its friends Turks and Jews and Belarusians and Russia. Add the destruction of civilian objects from enemy fire, which, in theory, the state should compensate.
    Does Aliyev want to seize Karabakh? Does he need a massacre between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Karabakh? Azerbaijan sells oil to Europe and does not need EU sanctions. Kind-hearted Europeans can easily declare Aliyev the hereditary dictator and threaten with the Hague Tribunal.
    Therefore, it may be less worth dramatizing current events and deciding the fate of the world (or the Caucasus), and ending poverty in your country as China will do this year. 20 million poor people are too much for a great and rich Russia.
    1. BastaKarapuzik And
      BastaKarapuzik And 11 October 2020 23: 37
      0
      There was some kind of peace plan, it was signed in the 90s by both sides. They signed it because there was no simple solution to a difficult situation. And now the drones seem to have untied the hands of one of the parties, the illusion of a simple exit has appeared. But this is really an illusion, the sides continue to shoot, but a truce is needed for both countries. After all, military personnel do not die in the cinema. I do not think that the situation can be considered satisfactorily resolved, with thousands of deaths and 150 new refugees from this region.
      Returning back to the peace plan signed in the 90s, its existence means that there are points of coincidence of interests even in this old conflict.
  19. donavi49
    donavi49 11 October 2020 20: 22
    +1
    It's just by. The Turks have reliable methods of eradicating serious partisanship, through mass executions and the importation of a loyal population. Vaughn Arfinsky in Syria threatened 100 years of guerrilla warfare. And in a year they were all handed over, simultaneously bringing thousands of militants and their families to the city, to the housing fund liberated from Kurdish people. Well, partisanism has slipped into type 1 terrorist attacks per quarter.
    1. cniza
      cniza 11 October 2020 21: 04
      +1
      This is of course interesting, but in this case it cannot be compared in any way, from the word completely ...
      1. donavi49
        donavi49 11 October 2020 21: 28
        -1
        Why?
        Harfin - 36 thousand people, and the area of ​​the enclave that the Turks took up to 50 thousand.
        Stepanokert - 53 thousand, and the entire population up to 140 thousand.
        1. cniza
          cniza 12 October 2020 08: 41
          +1
          By the number of the population, they are in the same row, but by motivation and support, as well as being near Armenia, this is incomparable ...
  20. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 11 October 2020 20: 43
    +1
    And if even now they are not in Karabakh, then if they fall under the Azerbaijani-Turkish control, they can certainly appear there - with all their extremely rich combat experience.

    As already written above, this experience did not help the Kurds in Afrin, from the word at all. In general, to see the Armenians are doing very badly, since they threaten a partisan war. Serbs in Kosovo also threatened, but only the majority stupidly left there. It's not such an easy thing, guerrilla warfare
  21. Vasya Lozhkin
    Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 20: 54
    +2
    Flee Armenians to the mountains. Your dwelling and refuge are there. Dig up the club of the people's war. Will you derail trains. Pashinyan will become Kovpak. Or will you run to the south of Russia? They won't wait for you there
    1. cniza
      cniza 11 October 2020 21: 02
      0
      Oh Vasily, I won't even say where you need to run, those around you will prompt you ...
      1. Vasya Lozhkin
        Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 22: 48
        +2
        I live on my own land and have not squeezed anyone's land, but you need to repent for your Armenian deeds
      2. Megatron
        Megatron 12 October 2020 10: 19
        0
        If you are so smart, settle the Ormen camp at home.
      3. Vadim_888
        Vadim_888 13 October 2020 13: 18
        0
        ... Oh Vasily

        He is not Vasily, he is an employee of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Moscow, he writes well in Russian
    2. Dzungar
      Dzungar 12 October 2020 11: 41
      0
      The South of Russia, Krasnodar Territory, according to the Armenians, is Northern Armenia. So that.....
  22. cniza
    cniza 11 October 2020 21: 00
    -2
    Baku and Ankara may get a guerrilla war if Nagorno-Karabakh is captured



    They cannot, but they will definitely get it ...
    1. Vasya Lozhkin
      Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 22: 49
      +3
      Rather, Russia will receive another hundred thousand Armenians in Krasnodar
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 12 October 2020 11: 57
        0
        Krasnodar is no stranger to it, we have super rubber.
  23. Karabin
    Karabin 11 October 2020 22: 03
    0
    can get guerrilla warfare

    Guerrilla warfare presupposes a "big land". Well, what is the big land from Armenia?
    1. Vasya Lozhkin
      Vasya Lozhkin 11 October 2020 22: 50
      0
      Some deserted mountains, and Armenians mad from lack of money
  24. hohol95
    hohol95 11 October 2020 23: 24
    +2
    Baku and Ankara may get a guerrilla war if Nagorno-Karabakh is captured

    Who believes this?
    Author! Do you believe in this?
  25. Oprichnik
    Oprichnik 12 October 2020 00: 11
    +2
    Thermal imagers on helicopters and the massive use of ODABs will make it possible to end the partisans in a short time, besides, there are no dense forests, and among the hills it will not be particularly possible to hide. A.V.Suvorov said: An uncut forest grows. I do not think that Azerbaijanis do not know these words. They will act accordingly.
    1. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 15 October 2020 20: 45
      0
      The guardsman "besides, there are no dense forests."
      You are wrong. Hills without forests are foothills. If you type Karabakh forests in a search engine, you will see many photos of forests.
      From wiki ... "High-value wood species, such as beech, hornbeam, oak, have made it possible to create a woodworking industry. Timber processing enterprises are operating."
      If there is wood processing, then there is wood.
  26. Dzungar
    Dzungar 12 October 2020 11: 40
    0
    Guerrilla warfare is possible ONLY with the support of the local population. And the local Armenian population in Karabakh, if it is captured, WILL NOT. It will partly be destroyed, partly it will go to Armenia as refugees. ALL
  27. Rage66
    Rage66 12 October 2020 12: 07
    +2
    Again Russia is being dragged there by the hair ... And it will settle down a little, they will shout: "Invaders! We demand sanctions!" Groundhog day by golly what
  28. Mmm.
    Mmm. 12 October 2020 12: 40
    0
    Russia has repeatedly fought both for Azerbaijan and for Armenia and I would categorically not say that Karabakh belongs to Armenians or Azerbaijanis, but in the place of these sub, I would not buzz at all
    1. Vadim_888
      Vadim_888 13 October 2020 13: 22
      0
      I wonder if a referendum on joining Crimea is held there, will the war end?
  29. SaLaR
    SaLaR 12 October 2020 13: 11
    +1
    The essence of the article is the same .. "Russia drive your guys to die faster, otherwise we have no time ... we need to sell bananas on the market" I don't care that the Armenians ... that the Azerbaijanis ... but the latter at least do not shout that Turkey would fight instead of them
    1. Vadim_888
      Vadim_888 13 October 2020 13: 23
      +1
      ... you need to sell bananas on the market "

      Arzeybajans are engaged in this, Armenians are taxi drivers mainly
  30. uporov65
    uporov65 12 October 2020 15: 45
    -1
    What Armenians or Azerbaijanis, here Moscow breaks away from Russia, or rather slides like a glacier towards England, that's what your head should be hurting about fool
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 12 October 2020 16: 31
      -2
      Here Moscow breaks off from Russia, so it breaks off so that people from all over Russia rush here.
  31. Just a Traveler
    Just a Traveler 12 October 2020 18: 15
    0
    This conflict will be minimized only with the complete deportation of Armenians from Artsakh.
    1. Vadim_888
      Vadim_888 13 October 2020 13: 24
      +1
      Well, or Arzeibajans to Turkey wassat
  32. The comment was deleted.
  33. karima
    karima 13 October 2020 14: 15
    +1
    Baku and Ankara may get a guerrilla war if Nagorno-Karabakh is captured
    And if the Armenians are offered the exclusive right to sell umm, watermelons?
  34. Victorm
    Victorm 15 October 2020 21: 33
    0
    Quote: smart fellow
    Aliyev (through the Minister of Foreign Affairs) proposed at the talks in Moscow that the Armenians liberate 5 of the 7 regions and agree on a date for the transfer of the 2 remaining regions. The territory of the former NKAO should de facto remain for the Armenians, de jure for Azerbaijan. The transition of Karabakh to Azerbaijan is transferred to the "beautiful far away". As far as Aliyev can be trusted, he could wait another 30 years for the return of even the occupied regions, not to mention Karabakh. PaрShinyan left him no choice when in July this year the Armenians unleashed an armed conflict far from Karabakh with the use of heavy weapons and casualties. After that PaрShinyan stated that Karabakh is forever Armenian. Aliyev either had to leave his post, or start military actions to return the territories.
    The return of the occupied territories is not manna from heaven for Azerbaijan, but huge expenses for the construction and repair of infrastructure. Every day of confrontation is also costly for Azerbaijan. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan pays for weapons to its friends Turks and Jews and Belarusians and Russia. Add the destruction of civilian objects from enemy fire, which, in theory, the state should compensate.
    Does Aliyev want to seize Karabakh? Does he need a massacre between Armenians and Azerbaijanis in Karabakh? Azerbaijan sells oil to Europe and does not need EU sanctions. Kind-hearted Europeans can easily declare Aliyev the hereditary dictator and threaten with the Hague Tribunal.
    Therefore, it may be less worth dramatizing current events and deciding the fate of the world (or the Caucasus), and ending poverty in your country as China will do this year. 20 million poor people are too much for a great and rich Russia.

    It was not Aliyev who proposed "YESTERDAY", but the devils when agreed basic principles, from which Armenia evades under various pretexts, using the patronage of the Russian Federation.