Military Review

Rosstat still believes. And in compatriots, and in a bright tomorrow

38

And let the whole world wait



Someone very wise said that the world is exactly as we are ready to see it. Isn't that why people sometimes so easily neglect the real trouble, but are simply unable sometimes not to worry about trifles? ..

You feel it as soon as it comes to the notorious consumer sentiment. It is they who form the very effective demand from the famous theorist British Lord J.M. Keynes, capable of making the flywheel of even a dead economy unwind.

For many years now, the Russian economy has been trying to convince us that it, like that patient, is rather alive than dead, and the public does not intend to give up at all under any pandemics or quarantines. We do not exclude that in the near future everything will become bad again, especially taking into account the poor starting positions - the fallen ruble and not growing oil.

But so far, judging by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, which only has what to believe, we are doing quite well. Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Statistics of the PRUE GV Plekhanova Olga Lebedinskaya beautifully called it "a conditional turn towards the green zone." Simply put, among the broad masses of Russians, there is a clear trend towards an improvement in consumer sentiment.

It seems that Russians, as has happened to them more than once after global crises and upheavals, are mostly inclined to an optimistic outlook on the future. And this despite the difficult economic situation in the world, despite the instability in the economy and the fact that the neighbors, more precisely, three allies of Russia - Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, are shaking well, and besides, it is somehow surprisingly synchronized.

At this particular moment, few people have been frightened off by the main negative factor of today - the introduction of a new series of restrictive measures, fortunately, not yet as harsh as in the spring. And if in the spring citizens first of all tried to save something for a rainy day, now the situation has changed, one might say radically.

However, this kind of optimism, according to statisticians, is more typical for the two capitals together with their suburbs and for a number of other large agglomerations. In the hinterland with consumer sentiments, things are still not very good, primarily due to the fact that one can only dream of not only growth, but at least maintaining the usual level of income.

Optimism or Indifference?


So, Rosstat assures us that the consumer confidence index in the third quarter of 2020 rose to minus 22%. True, this happened after a sharp drop was noted in the II quarter - to minus 30%. Overall negative assessments have been prevailing for six years now, but such a strong return has not been noted for a very long time.

Five years ago, after Crimea and the beginning of sanctions, the fall in the Rosstat index was exactly the same, although not as fast. But in comparison with that situation, the current situation in the sphere of consumer sentiment is characterized by a much faster recovery. And again, we only need to hope that the second wave of the pandemic will not overwhelm us as much as the first.

Rosstat still believes. And in compatriots, and in a bright tomorrow

It was much worse in the spring. What will be closer to winter?

After 2015, there was a gradual rise to minus 10%, noted in 2018, when the world football championship added to the optimism quite clearly. The decline to the marks of this summer was also smooth, and a sharp decline occurred only during quarantine. It is clear that it will not be easy to return even to the level of 2018, let alone a neutral zero point, but the rebound rate is still encouraging.

All this, taken together, means that we have not yet returned to our original positions, and with the beginning of the second coronavirus wave it is generally unclear when we will return. Nevertheless, one cannot but inspire the fact that the share of respondents who harshly negatively assess any changes in the economy has significantly decreased.

For the next 12 months, we are talking about a decline from 45% to 36%. At the same time, as evidenced by the data of Rosstat polls, the share of respondents who expect a deterioration in their financial situation has also decreased - from 31% to 23%. This is especially noticeable in the younger generation, where the share of pessimists has already dropped to 19%.

It is interesting that Rosstat, where value judgments are usually avoided, this time drew attention to the fact that this can contribute to a change in mood in the field of trade, services and public catering. And all the same: "... most of the workers are less and less afraid of the deterioration of their financial situation." If only everything that is caused or associated with the second wave of the pandemic ruins the picture in a matter of weeks.

It is no coincidence that consumer sentiments are called a litmus test of the state of the economy, but the same Keynes built on them a whole economic theory, which is still considered basic for capitalism and for transitional economies, and even for such a model as in supposedly communist China.

We must not forget that if the public simply cannot answer questions about income with all its desire, then no one has to lie about expectations and moods. However, in reality, the number of optimists in Russia, if it has grown, is insignificant.

But the pessimists have diminished noticeably, however, most of them have moved into the category of indifferent citizens, who, it seems, will absolutely not care in the future. Such, by definition, will never talk about the deterioration of their financial situation in the past or in the future.


Empty stores are the surest sign of a crisis

It is no coincidence, according to Rosstat, that the number of those who assess the future or the changes that have occurred in a neutral way has also grown significantly. This is evidenced by the decrease in the share of negative assessments to 36% and the fact that the index of expected economic changes rose to 15%.

Experts talk about low base


The first wave of coronavirus came as a shock to so many, but it still cannot be compared with shock therapy from Balcerowicz or Gaidar. Many experts note that the still dubious changes for the better are assessed so optimistically, because many have nowhere to fall in the spring.

Contrary to negative forecasts and pessimistic expectations, there was no widespread business collapse and massive bankruptcies, although still, perhaps, only ahead. And yet, even unemployment has grown to such an extent that it can somehow be dealt with, hundreds of thousands of people have managed to get their decent benefits without serious complications.

Be that as it may, after the past crises, such a turn towards people has not been noted. Both in 2008 and in 2014, the first thing we did was to save big business. Now we are talking about the fact that the state is almost the first time in the new stories Russia is making every effort to ensure that the life of an ordinary citizen does not deteriorate, and, perhaps, even improves.

Even such traditional critics of the current government, such as Igor Stroganov, associate professor of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, and Mikhail Delyagin, who heads the independent Institute of Globalization, drew attention to this.

Igor Stroganov noted that “we didn’t trade less, we didn’t lose the markets, but, on the contrary, gained access to the markets of the Middle East and Latin America. It is characteristic that right now, during quite serious tests for all countries and for the citizens of Russia, consumers are demonstrating restrained optimism and, what is important for business, readiness to consume goods and services. "

Mikhail Delyagin believes that in the third quarter of 2020, residents of Russia simply tried to consume what they failed in the second quarter due to the restrictions imposed then. He drew attention to the fact that the Rosstat index is not a very accurate indicator, because it is based on surveys, when people do not always tell the truth.

Delyagin recalled that "the polls are difficult to interpret for the sample to be representative." But growth by 8 percentage points, to minus 22%, looks, in his opinion, plausible, since the III quarter is after July 1, when the recovery was already underway.

In many regions, restrictions were already removed or significantly weakened. As Delyagin explained, people began to relax, traveled en masse across the country, started visiting hairdressers and bought what they could not buy earlier.
Author:
Photos used:
rbc.ru, finmarket.ru, adindex.ru
38 comments
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  1. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 12 October 2020 15: 07
    16
    Often they write, religion, these are our spiritual braces ... No guys, our spiritual braces, this is Rostat ... you can trust him alone ... and he really exists. laughing
    1. SRC P-15
      SRC P-15 12 October 2020 15: 14
      11
      I put my hand into the bag -
      I thought there was no more bread!
      No, Rosstat is not lying at all:
      I'm still rich! yes
      1. Tatanka Yotanka
        Tatanka Yotanka 12 October 2020 21: 10
        15
        Quote: СРЦ П-15
        I put my hand into the bag -
        I thought there was no more bread!

        and the package is osetrine,
        truffle, overseas wine
        "no, Rosstat does not lie with us"
        - said the Duma deputy fellow
        1. boni592807
          boni592807 14 October 2020 19: 37
          +2
          In the morning I smear a sandwich - Immediately a thought: what about the people?
          And the caviar does not go down the throat, And the compote does not pour into the mouth!
          At night I will stand at the window And I stand all night without sleep -
          All worried about Rasea, How is it, poor, is she?
    2. Svarog
      Svarog 12 October 2020 15: 17
      31
      Quote: Daniil Konovalenko
      No guys, our spiritual braces, this is Rostat ... you can trust him alone ... and he really exists.

      And don’t tell .. Rosstat-you can see about another Russia. I have noticed for a long time that the authorities, statistics, Panfilov, together with the electoral committee are aliens .. They live in their own world and try not to intersect with reality.
      1. Ragnar Lodbrok
        Ragnar Lodbrok 12 October 2020 15: 51
        25
        Guys ... I really want to live in a single space with Rosstat. It's warm there, it's good there. It's cozy there. It's a pity that most of the Russian people don't live there.
        1. Pereira
          Pereira 13 October 2020 08: 36
          +6
          In 1917, part of the population lived in the same way in a parallel space. And on November 7, the border between the worlds suddenly collapsed.
      2. kepmor
        kepmor 12 October 2020 16: 00
        23
        when you occasionally listen to Putin or his neighbors, it seems like smart and correct thoughts slip through ...
        and about medicine with education ...
        and about pensions with income ...
        and about science with economics ...
        I can't understand one thing ... about some kind of country, they are all "like a nightingale" ??? ...
        to see the tsar and the boyars talk about the "emirates" unknown to us ... but for some reason the population is still vegetating in the "rassian vymirates" ...
        1. Ragnar Lodbrok
          Ragnar Lodbrok 12 October 2020 16: 02
          11
          We live in different countries, that's all.
          In Tbilisi - everything is clear there, it's warm there,
          Tea grows there, but I don't need to go there!
      3. Simargl
        Simargl 12 October 2020 19: 07
        +4
        Quote: Svarog
        Rosstat - you can see about another Russia.
        How's the joke?
        "- I want, I want to go to the USSR !!!"
    3. Civil
      Civil 12 October 2020 17: 02
      26
      Well, how is there growth in the economy:
      1. The retirement age is growing.
      2. The price of gasoline is growing.
      3. Prospects for negative growth are growing.
      Prospects are reliable:
      1. The ruble will fall reliably.
      2. The sanctions are firmly imposed for a long time.
      3. Young people need to work reliably and hard to provide the country with taxes. And everyone)

      Excellent prospects.
    4. aglet
      aglet 13 October 2020 09: 14
      +1
      "This is Rostat ... he alone can be trusted ... and he really exists."
      hope it was sarcasm? although, in the second part, I also believe
  2. apro
    apro 12 October 2020 15: 12
    +5
    Somehow I liked the post ... for some reason everyone does not want to a bright future ... but they want to go back to the past ... to stay there ... change the tallers ... kill someone ... the new ministry of happiness in Russian ... we write it right. no need to disobey the authorities.
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 12 October 2020 15: 53
      25
      Quote: apro
      for some reason, everyone does not want a bright future ..
      1. apro
        apro 12 October 2020 15: 56
        17
        Quote: Uncle Lee
        Quote: apro
        for some reason, everyone does not want a bright future ..

        Unfortunately, the bright future remains in the Soviet past ...
        1. Uncle lee
          Uncle lee 12 October 2020 16: 02
          11
          Quote: apro
          Sorry

          To the greatest regret ...
          1. DM29
            DM29 12 October 2020 18: 32
            +1
            What to do...?
            1. odometer
              odometer 12 October 2020 19: 56
              +1
              Chew snot further ...
  3. Odysseus
    Odysseus 12 October 2020 15: 16
    24
    Alas, here we continue our descent down the civilizational ladder. In the last 10 years, Rosstat has finally become a body that does not fix reality (which is necessary for management), but falsifies it. In general, there is nothing super-original in this. This is a fairly typical state for countries of the 3rd capital of the world with a dictatorial rule. But for Russia this is a wonder. Sometimes even United Russia tries to demonstrate some atavism of civilization. I remember in 2018 there was a whole scandal when they discovered that Rosstat writes salary figures simply from "surveys of entrepreneurs"
    Well, the statistics of this year are generally extravaganza. I will not even talk about inflation and wages, but the growth in retail revenue (during a "pandemic"), growth in revenue from cargo transportation (with the fall of all major industries) is, of course, strong.
  4. Kronos
    Kronos 12 October 2020 15: 28
    +2
    Now we are talking about the fact that the state, almost for the first time in the modern history of Russia, is making every effort to ensure that the life of an ordinary citizen does not deteriorate, and, perhaps, even improves.
    What is this based on?
  5. Deniska999
    Deniska999 12 October 2020 15: 36
    +4
    According to Rosstat, from 2008 to 2019, the Russian economy added 8,8%.
    With an average growth rate of 0,88% per year, the Russian Federation lagged 3,5 times behind the world economy, which, according to Worldbank, added 31,2%, almost twice the United States, where the economy grew by 16,2%, and 11 times from China, whose GDP has increased by 101% (although China counts it crookedly, but still)
    Alexey Kudrin, head of the Accounts Chamber, in an interview with TASS (official nowhere!)
    ... in order to remain practically with a minimum growth of 1 percent for more than ten years, this was not the case even in Soviet times. You can dig deeper - from the middle of the nineteenth century. Except for wars and revolutions. In the 90s of the last century, they fell strongly, but there the period was still shorter - not ten years ...

    There is still good

    We have not yet come out of the crisis, and I believe that we have enough resources to make the budget softer in terms of increasing spending and supporting the economy, which needs it. We do not have enough funds to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, education. I think we should definitely increase expenses. Instead, a 10 percent cut is planned for a number of areas next year.

    The bosses do not want the people to get rich.
    1. Roman070280
      Roman070280 12 October 2020 15: 51
      13
      from 2008 to 2019 ... the Russian Federation lagged 3,5 times behind the world economy ... almost twice the United States, where the economy grew by 16,2%, and 11 times behind China,


      At first it was bad, then it got worse ..
  6. iouris
    iouris 12 October 2020 15: 42
    +2
    The mindless representative of the disappearing middle class has consumer optimism and faith ... Although there is already nothing. The finish. Those who did not have time will understand.
  7. maiman61
    maiman61 12 October 2020 15: 54
    -1
    And why not trust Rosstat! The work experience goes on, the salary goes on, and there at least the grass does not grow!
  8. Virus-free crown
    Virus-free crown 12 October 2020 15: 54
    +3
    I will say it bluntly without reference to the index ... about the increased "optimism" ... "no matter what" wassat

    people in Moscow and the Moscow region are already tired of the "coronavirus restrictions" ... they are ready to believe in a "bright future" ... even in the "bald devil", even in Putin, even in Sobyanin ... ready to wait a little longer .. .but then ... if the "dreams and aspirations" of the people do not coincide with the reality ... (about restrictions that will be tougher than this spring we tactfully keep silent - the beginning of new restrictions will be the end of this power bully )

    so vooot ... if in the spring the "increased optimism of the population" will not be justified by the authorities ... I will even feel sorry for our Power ... at least in the capital laughing
  9. Gardamir
    Gardamir 12 October 2020 15: 55
    10
    Still, the ability to put cons is better. He put it on and left without explaining anything.
    And so I see the collapse of businesses. And what is the effect of the "support" of the state? That they are being fined mercilessly?
    1. depressant
      depressant 12 October 2020 17: 30
      10
      Precisely because three countries around us, relatively speaking, were on fire (Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan), and the smoke penetrated our windows (Khabarovsk, Vladivostok), the authorities realized themselves: we need to store water! Because the situation is seen by military analysts as "the enemy at the gates."

      Indeed, with what mood will our army go to fight, if that? Or in a lighter version - the police and the National Guard to disperse the protesters? Therefore, "water storage" was expressed in gratuitous state subsidies to families with children, the unemployed, led to a slight increase in pensions, again, breakfast for schoolchildren at least somewhere was established - maybe someone else fell a little. In short, they gave at least some money, increasing consumer demand, which somewhat restrained the rise in prices. And although prices nevertheless crawled up, but not as much as the population was anxiously expecting.

      Without bothering about the question of how much was appropriated by the officials of the allocated state funds at the stages of lowering the banknotes down, I just note that everything looks as if the government did not leave the population without subsidized attention. This somewhat raised the level of popular optimism. Although in fact it did not disregard the interests of our foreign trade networks. But who will delve into such subtleties!

      However, the state does not have a bottomless pocket, but an enemy - it is not so much crowded at the gates, it is inside for a long time. The laws governing small and medium-sized businesses are starting to kill even the one that has survived in recent decades. This leads to a further reduction of jobs that can provide food without stretching out a supplicating hand to the state.
      For example, they lived to see the "coming" sellers. I see this in a nearby store. Visitors only appear during peak hours, as well as on Friday and Saturday. This is when the two remaining permanent saleswomen fail. The girls say hourly pay. At least something.
      This is the homespun truth. And it's not even about trade. If the state wanted to really feed its people, it would allow it to do it on its own through small and medium-sized businesses of the widest profile. But no, so tears of gratitude in the eyes due to handouts do not well. And restrained optimism will quickly dissipate when the budget is empty, and there will be nothing to put in the outstretched hands of those in need.
  10. nikvic46
    nikvic46 12 October 2020 16: 10
    +6
    In the picture, a store with empty shelves flashed. Under the name "real crisis". Under capitalism, this is simply impossible. Even in the most difficult years of the United States, store shelves were not empty. But there was the theft of bread, vegetables .. I have a store and Rosstat. And I must say that over these months my bags have not become scarce. The situation of the workers who either lost their jobs is another matter. Or they went on vacation at their own expense. Some weirdo writes that he can live on 1000 rubles a month. What is he? Can't wash or go to the toilet?
  11. shubin
    shubin 12 October 2020 17: 21
    +9
    As in the old joke:
    How does a pessimist differ from an optimist?
    The pessimist is sad - how bad everything is, it probably won't be worse.
    The optimist will be joyful, will be, still will be!
  12. nnm
    nnm 12 October 2020 17: 26
    12
    I read the article at first and think, but nothing is taken as a basis for the period when the population was simply put to the bottom of the bottom, we all adapted and now a small rebound, which only the Russians themselves earned with their ability to survive, adapt is presented as a result of someone's wise and domineering politicians ?
    And after reading to the lines:
    Be that as it may, after the past crises, such a turn towards people has not been noted. Both in 2008 and in 2014, the first thing we did was to save big business.

    realized that for some pennies to the population, after selling Sberbank for $ 2.3 trillion, after his new picture for $ 300 million, after billions of dollars in compensation from the budget to the oligarchs for the fact that the poor things fell under sanctions, it's time to get ready to poke these $ 10 thousand. rub. * 2 of us will be oh how long.
    And, accordingly, it seems that we need to prepare for even worse conditions.
  13. DM29
    DM29 12 October 2020 18: 34
    +1
    Quote: nnm
    I read the article at first and think, but nothing is taken as a basis for the period when the population was simply put to the bottom of the bottom, we all adapted and now a small rebound, which only the Russians themselves earned with their ability to survive, adapt is presented as a result of someone's wise and domineering politicians ?
    And after reading to the lines:
    Be that as it may, after the past crises, such a turn towards people has not been noted. Both in 2008 and in 2014, the first thing we did was to save big business.

    realized that for some pennies to the population, after selling Sberbank for $ 2.3 trillion, after his new picture for $ 300 million, after billions of dollars in compensation from the budget to the oligarchs for the fact that the poor things fell under sanctions, it's time to get ready to poke these $ 10 thousand. rub. * 2 of us will be oh how long.
    And, accordingly, it seems that we need to prepare for even worse conditions.

    What will be next?
    1. A_Mazkov
      A_Mazkov 12 October 2020 19: 34
      +7
      Let me calm you all down! Nothing will happen! Neither revolutions, nor civil war, even mass meetings are foreseen in the foreseeable future (15 - 20 years). Everything will be as it is now, neither shaky nor shaky. The coronavirus will pass, the sanctions will remain. SP-2 will be completed, but of course no one will need it for hell, since the United States will continue to kick its German NATO partners. Turkey and Poland will cut off at the end, but for the Poles everything will end badly - they will cover funding. Turkey will be fine, it will even seriously expand its spheres of influence. Well, yes, Putin will certainly grow old, alas!
      1. aglet
        aglet 13 October 2020 09: 19
        0
        "Ah, yes, Putin will certainly grow old, alas!"
        well, yes, sadness. but he is still far from the age of Brezhnev, although this calms
  14. imobile2008
    imobile2008 12 October 2020 19: 57
    +4
    Alexey Podymov, Anatoly Ivanov Judging by how the comments are cleaned up, the article is a complete order
    1. A_Mazkov
      A_Mazkov 12 October 2020 20: 59
      +1
      No, I don't think so. After all, people really, in anticipation of a rise in prices, rushed to take apartments on a mortgage and a car on credit. Again, those who had small savings in rubles began to spend them, buying the same equipment, or furnishings for an apartment, so that they would not burn out. So there are many reasons for the increase in purchases, and naturally, it looks at first glance as the population's confidence in economic stability. Another thing is that perhaps this is not at all the case, and the increase in demand is caused by sweeping away everything in a row from the shelves, while everything is relatively affordable. So the article is essentially just a statement of fact with a bunch of unknown nuances, and there is nothing custom-made in it.
  15. Alt 22
    Alt 22 12 October 2020 22: 29
    +7
    Well, Rosstat has long turned into a propaganda body.
    However, after Putin's statement that "17 thousand is the" middle class "", I am no longer surprised by anything.
  16. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim 13 October 2020 11: 36
    +1
    Quote: Ragnar lodbrok
    Guys ... I really want to live in a single space with Rosstat. It's warm there, it's good there. It's cozy there. It's a pity that most of the Russian people don't live there.

    No, it is better to live in the same coordinates with the officials of the IE PFR, until they pass by))
    The authorities took the subordinates of the former head of the Pension Fund of Russia for "Faberge", and the chief fokuusnik in time "screwed" into the Ministry of Finance of Russia, they say I know nothing, I do not remember anything.
    But the apartment on Patriarshikh Street for 0.5 yard ₽ speaks for itself.
    Indeed, with his official income over the past 11 years, he could only afford to buy a place for a pair of shoes in this apartment.

    https://m.tsargrad.tv/shows/milliardy-utekli-iz-pfr-v-ofshory-a-glavnyj-otvetstvennyj-stroit-kareru-v-minfine_287564
  17. Evgeny Seleznev
    Evgeny Seleznev 15 October 2020 20: 20
    0
    Mr. Delyagin correctly defined “the polls are difficult to interpret for the sample to be representative”. But there is still a long way to recovery and even further to the fat years of peace and tranquility. The depreciation of the ruble by 25% and no longer gives rise to optimism. A social explosion is possible, it is very obvious and dangerous. For all that, the refrigerator and the wallet are the main advisers, not the authorities or propaganda. How the helmsman will lead us and how it will end is difficult to predict.