If you scare the enemy even before the battle, then the chances of victory increase many times over. Almost everyone knows this simple truth. They know almost from the first children's fights. However, this rule works. Works anytime, anywhere. Not only in street fights, fights without rules, any martial arts, but in military conflicts and global wars.
Russia showed an excellent example of such a statement yesterday. One missile launch, and many headquarters of the armies of potential adversaries puzzle over the problem of the security of their own army. And plans for possible offensive operations are becoming fuel for fireplaces. But much more often in modern life they frighten not with real shows, but with words. And the effect of such words is no less than a rocket launch.
I did not want to write about the statement made by General Jeffrey Lee Harrigian, commander of the SMA Air Force in Europe, on September 20 this year. Simply because this statement, in my opinion, is one such attempt to intimidate us. Quite awkward, even stupid. Obviously designed for ordinary people who have little understanding of military affairs. However, the media reaction forced me to express my own opinion.
Is the American showing his cards?
What is the essence of the statement of the American general? Why is it funny to most military experts? And at the same time, threatening to ordinary people. In fact, General Harrigian spoke about the existence of NATO's plan to break through the defense system of the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation. In the part that he personally deals with: the breakthrough of the air defense and missile defense system of this enclave of Russia.
You must admit that the statement of the American general about the absence of such plans would look much more strange. The military must have plans for all occasions. Both on defense and offense. And in accordance with these plans to receive one or another support for their units and formations. And the very presence of units of any army in one place or another should be planned. In order to…
Three days before the appearance of this statement, the American digital magazine Breaking Defense published an article that caused quite a stir under the loud headline Target, Kaliningrad: Air Force Puts Putin On Notice. The article quotes the same general, but already his speech at the Air, Space & Cyber (ASC) conference of the Air Force Association: “We are learning this. We are constantly thinking about these plans, and ... if it is ever needed, we will be ready to implement them. "
We often say and write that NATO is at our borders, that BTGs in Poland and the Baltic States really threaten our cities. At the same time, we forget that our military men do not eat cabbage soup either. We have two of the largest "unsinkable aircraft carriers" in Europe, which virtually nullify the entire NATO defense system. These are Crimea and Kaliningrad.
The distance from Kaliningrad to Lisbon is just over 2800 kilometers. From Simferopol to Lisbon - 3600 kilometers. Officially, our missiles hit targets in Syria for 1500 kilometers. How long they can still fly, almost no one knows. And these "almost" will be silent until the launch.
But let's return to NATO's plans to neutralize the Kaliningrad group of forces. Modern warfare includes the conduct of hostilities in several directions at once. These are traditional actions on land, at sea and in the air. Despite all the treaties, the war will go on in such an area as space. Let's add electromagnetic and cyberspace here. Modern weapons are automated and robotic, and war cannot be avoided in these environments.
I could now talk about the weapons that Poland is proud of, about all these 155-mm Krab howitzers, which have already been produced from 180 to 200 pieces, according to various sources, about the American MLRS MLRS and HIMARS (54 and 36, respectively, in warehouses in Bavaria ), which can fire not only GMLRS projectiles (range up to 70 km), but ATACMS missiles (range up to 300 km). You can talk about the capabilities of American ships and American aviation... But why?
Today it is hard not to notice the sharp attacks of the Balts and Poles against Russia. It’s hard not to notice that all these countries, with some calmness of the doomed, are taking steps that simply kill their economies and make them hostages in a future conflict. The struggle for SP-2 led to the collapse of economies so much that doubts are already creeping in about the well-being of not only the Baltic troika, but also Poland.
Let's try to discard the importance for everyone of another pipeline in the EU. Let's take the position of some Europeans. Not a gram of Russian oil, not a liter of gas! And what do we get? Who won? The traditional "Americans" does not work. The Americans do not have so many tankers to fill Europe with liquefied gas. So who gets better?
General Jeffrey Lee Harrigian is not an oilman, but a military man. And judging by his rank and position, he is far from being a fool. The conversation about plans to seize Kaliningrad was also not from a desire to show that he knew more than others. Such things happen only in countries where the word "state" is used most often next to the word "ostensibly".
Hence the legitimate question: what was it? Why was the next wave raised about the security of the Russian enclave? It is clear that these statements will become known not only to the allies of the United States, but also to opponents, that is, to us. Consequently, the information is designed specifically for the reaction of those countries from whose territory it is planned to strike and the country on which they are going to strike.
Calm down allies and try to scare Russia
Have you ever thought about why the NATO bloc grabbed onto the Baltic states and Poland? Why does it agree to spend huge sums of money on the creation of military infrastructure in these states? Why are ground and air force maneuvers taking place in these areas? Why is no one going to defend Italy or France? Why don't they reflect the landing in Germany?
Why is the already famous "Suwalki corridor" so important? The traditional explanation for the delivery of NATO reinforcements along this corridor for its units in the Baltics does not stand up to scrutiny. What reinforcements? According to the estimates of the same NATO generals, the Baltic states will be taken in hours. Not in a day, but in hours! Yes, and this corridor itself will be occupied by the troops of Russia, or rather, Belarus, in hours. "Bottleneck", it is the neck. To strangle NATO units in the Baltics.
It was not in vain that I began the material by indicating the distances from Kaliningrad and Simferopol to the western lands of Europe. This is primarily due to changes in NATO's military planning. The Baltic states and Poland were of interest to the alliance as an equipped base for transporting troops. Ports, railways, airfields.
At the same time, Russia in this region could use a rather limited infrastructure even on its own territory. The fate of the same Baltic fleet at the beginning of the database, it would have been no better than the one in which it was in 1941. Kaliningrad would have repeated the fate of Konigsberg.
Over the past years, Russia has been quite seriously involved in the infrastructure of this region. The transfer of cargo traffic to Russian ports, the creation of new transport routes for the layman is just a punishment for enemies. For the military, this is the creation of a new serious defensive line. It is not for nothing that NATO members have become so active in the Nordic countries. There is an understanding of the processes.
With the advent of military infrastructure in the Leningrad Region, Russia was able to transfer military operations to almost any point in old Europe. Gone is the "long way through all of Europe" that the Soviet soldiers had to go through in 1941-1945. Everything can be done much faster.
So not only is NATO putting a knife to our underbelly, but we are doing the same for the alliance. And the beautiful speeches of the American president and other overseas politicians no longer convince Europeans. The same Germans have preserved the memory of the fate of Dresden. True, in part. About houses, yes, but about those who destroyed them ...
Today there is a lot of talk about the American strategic bombers that "shell" the Crimea and Kaliningrad. Horror! But let's take a realistic look at these actions. In the event of a surprise attack, some of the missiles may break through our air defense system. But what will be the answer? Will the planes fly to their airfield? And whether there will be an airfield at all. Not to mention our modern military doctrine. There, the question may also arise about whether there will be a country where the planes are returning.
The understanding that the balance of power in Europe has changed is forcing NATO commanders to resort to old, centuries-old methods of intimidating the enemy. The same Harrigian talks about the use of aviation by the Global Strike Command. About the same B-52H Stratofortress of the US Air Force and B-2 Spirit, which regularly arrive in Britain (Fairford airbase). About the fifth-generation fighter-bombers F-35 Lightning II, which are supposedly invisible to Russian air defense systems.
The US Army General made a special emphasis on the use of US carrier-based aircraft. Those very aircraft carriers that "can appear suddenly" and strike. F / A-18 Super Hornet carrier-based fighter-bombers and E / A-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft. It looks a bit silly, especially after congratulating Shoigu on his birthday.
In general, if you read more closely all the statements of the American general, they can be summarized in one phrase: we will throw our hats! In a beautiful style, it will look something like this: we will conduct such a massive attack by all means, in which the Russian air defense system simply cannot physically intercept everything. The number of targets will exceed the ability to track and defeat them.
How will we catch enemy "caps"
I have always wondered why an air defense-missile defense system is always drawn in some kind of autonomous, closed area. Air defense of Moscow, air defense of the village of Petrovka and the like. Air defense is called a system because it includes many objects located far enough from the protected area. Any attack on Kaliningrad will be repelled not only by the grouping directly in the enclave, but by the Baltic Fleet and part of the military district.
But let's look at the situation from the American point of view. Russia is stunned by the blow, the troops are in a stupor, only units and formations of the enclave are fighting. How will the outpost of Russia in the Baltic meet the enemy?
Today the skies of the Kaliningrad region are guarded by 6 S-400 Triumph divisions. In addition, there are also two S-300PS divisions, upgraded to S-300PM-2. To help them to combat low-flying targets, "Pantsir-C1" (ZRPK 96K6) were deployed. Here you can also add air defense BF-SAM "Tor" (9K330).
The sky over the enclave will be protected by the 132nd mixed air division of the BF Naval Aviation. It includes two regiments: the 689th named after Pokryshkin and the 4th separate naval assault regiment, a mixed air regiment and, possibly, a helicopter regiment (so far, data only from conversations). This air division includes the latest modifications of the Su-27 and the Su-30SM. So there is not only how to intercept the enemy, but how to destroy his bases.
Russian electronic warfare is an important line of defense. There is no point in listing everything. "Sky", Gamma "," Murmansk-BN "and other stations for Kaliningrad - the usual means. But the appearance of any new station in Russia is a signal for the electronic warfare units to retrain soldiers and officers and prepare them to receive new equipment.
We should not forget one more station - the Voronezh-DM early warning system. The station is new. Started at the DB in 2014 and today provides sky control at ranges of up to 6000 km. So missile launches will be detected as soon as possible.
Those who follow the weapons and military equipment of modern armies have probably noticed an important feature of Russian weapons in the Kaliningrad region. Most weapons are not stationary systems, but highly mobile ones. Russia did not take the path of creating a fortress. We have ensured an increase in the survivability of stations and installations by quickly changing positions. This, in turn, requires an increase in the forces and means of destruction of a potential enemy.
Horror games are becoming really dangerous in modern times. All these flights along the borders, exercises, the deployment of new contingents will not bring any good. The closer even hypothetical opponents are to each other, the more weapons, capable of really hitting the adjacent territory near the borders, the higher the likelihood that the notorious human factor will work.
One missile, one shell, one mistake of the navigator of the plane - and the world will fall into the abyss of war. I have already written that there are no “red lines” today. As there is no system capable of stopping aggression. Especially if the armies of the leading world powers are involved in this.
Americans are very fond of arithmetic. They like to calculate how much and in what time frame the enemy's manpower, equipment and weapons will be destroyed, how many civilians will die. They believe that war is just a type of business where the most important thing is investment. Therefore, they consider the amount of the army's military budget to be the main argument in disputes about the strength of someone's army.
A couple of years ago, a simulation of a NATO attack on Kaliningrad was carried out within the Science and Global Security / SGS program at Princeton University (USA). That is, scientists "attacked" the Russian enclave taking into account all factors known at that time on both sides. This episode was just the beginning of a global war.
There is no need to talk about the simulation. Suffice it to name a couple of numbers that will quickly cool any hotheads. In the first few hours after the start of the operation, 34 million people will die, think about this number. And another 57 million will be injured or injured in combat. Total: in the first hours of the attack, humanity will lose from 80 to 90 million people killed and wounded!