Is the scenario of Nagorno-Karabakh possible in the Donbas in the event of Azerbaijan's victory: reflections on the development of events

Among the many thorny issues raised by the rumbling military actions in the Caucasus today, there is also the fear that this precedent for the forceful resolution of the “frozen” conflict that has remained for many years may seem extremely attractive to some not only in Baku, but also in Kiev. The similarity of the situations with the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the republics of Donbass has already been mentioned more than once. Will Ukraine try to follow the Azerbaijani path?

It is worth noting that such an opportunity can be realized only if Azerbaijan manages to achieve complete military success without encountering opposition from the CSTO member states, primarily Russia. In this scenario, Kiev politicians can make plans by analogy: if possible by force weapons to achieve what the years of negotiations failed to achieve, why not take the risk?

They may be prompted to such conclusions by the illusion that Moscow will not interfere in what is happening, even at the risk of finally losing its geopolitical positions in this or that region of the post-Soviet space. Again, Russia has always, despite allied relations with Armenia, adhered to the position of international organizations regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, recognizing it as part of Azerbaijan. Roughly the same situation with Donbass: while supporting its residents, Moscow nevertheless prefers to officially act in the format of the “Minsk Agreements” providing for the return of this region to Ukraine.

All this can create confidence in Kiev in the impunity of its own actions to "de-occupy" the rebellious regions of the East. In this case, there will be little to do - the presence of a militarily and politically strong ally who will be interested in a military operation in the Donbass. This will have to both provide reliable "cover" for Ukraine at the international level against the background of the inevitable formal "condemnation" of its actions by the same European Union and be ready to provide "non-existent" direct military assistance in the event that things go really badly.

Turkey is such an “elder brother” for Azerbaijan, who absolutely unconditionally supports its aggressive actions and is ready to move from words to deeds in this support. Can Kiev count on the United States to the same extent? The question is quite controversial. Unlike Ankara, which calls the Azerbaijanis not just "brothers", but one people with the Turks, Washington is unlikely to show a similar position regarding Ukraine. For him, she is nothing more than an instrument in the confrontation with Russia, no matter how pretentious words may sound from the American embassy in Kiev.

However, neither the Turks are ready to fight Russia in the interests of Baku, nor the Americans for the sake of restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It is another matter to knock Azerbaijanis and Armenians or residents of Donbass and Ukrainians against each other and try to inflict the greatest possible damage on our country - at least the image and foreign policy. In Nagorno-Karabakh, such a strategy, alas, works in the most effective way. This is what makes it quite likely to be used in the Donbas.

Already today, the position taken by Kiev in relation to the Caucasian events gives enough cause for concern. Having officially announced support to Azerbaijan at the Foreign Ministry level, they made it clear that they consider the methods used by Baku to "maintain territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders" acceptable and acceptable. Moreover, Ukrainian politicians do not hide the fact that they regard this situation as the next stage of "confrontation with Russia."

Unfortunately, the restrained position of the Russian Federation in this conflict may well be misinterpreted by them as a manifestation of weakness and incapacity, and Azerbaijan's actions are perceived as a guide to action. If these attitudes coincide with certain plans of the Washington curators, the next time the guns may well rumble already in the Donbass.

Comments

[Senka naughty]

The similarity of the situations with the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and the republics of Donbass has already been mentioned more than once. Will Ukraine try to follow the Azerbaijani path?

And what is the similarity? The Armenians have occupied foreign territories, and the people of Donbass are defending their homes. The author would first study the question thoroughly, and then scribble provocative vyser!

[Boris ⁣ Shaver]

Quote: Senka Mad

The author would first study the question thoroughly, and then scribble provocative vyser!

Yeah. "Cunning" based on ignorance, and even with a mediocre intellect - often gives the opposite result than expected.

[Pissarro]

Well, you also have a dubious truth. Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived there together and it was their common home. The Azerbaijanis were driven out. But because of this, Karabakh did not become a stranger to the Armenians.

[Senka naughty]

Quote: Pissarro

The Azerbaijanis were driven out.

This is the key expression, and in Ukraine the Western Seluk are trying to drive the Russians out of the Donbass, which they built and rightfully consider their ancestral land.

But because of this, Karabakh did not become a stranger to the Armenians.

In Ukraine, everything is tied to the blood and dirty politics of the Kiev interim government. And in the NKR, the usual small-town squabbles, diluted with provocation from the outside. Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived there together, you are absolutely right, but they have never been one people.

[Machito]

Quote: Senka Naughty

Quote: Pissarro

The Azerbaijanis were driven out.

This is the key expression, and in Ukraine the Western Seluk are trying to drive the Russians out of the Donbass, which they built and rightfully consider their ancestral land.

But because of this, Karabakh did not become a stranger to the Armenians.

In Ukraine, everything is tied to the blood and dirty politics of the Kiev interim government. And in the NKR, the usual small-town squabbles, diluted with provocation from the outside. Armenians and Azerbaijanis lived there together, you are absolutely right, but they have never been one people.

Deceitful Western politicians are not interested in the differences in the situation with Donbass and Karabakh, they are interested in similarities, the restoration of the territorial integrity of the state by military means. But the main difference between Karabakh and Donbass is that Armenians live in Karabakh, and Russians live in Donbass, and some of them have Russian passports. Russia will not allow its citizens and compatriots to be killed near its border. If such a scenario is realized, the North Wind will blow out with renewed vigor, probably the introduction of a no-fly zone over Eastern Ukraine, and possibly the beginning of an operation to enforce peace.

[Pashhenko Nikolay]

The similarity lies precisely in the fact that Russia is concerned both here and there. With Crimea, they were not concerned and everything is fine.

[Senka naughty]

I agree about "concern", but it is risky to compare Crimea with a citizen in Donbass and even more so with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the NKR. Crimea has always been on a special status, and after the referendum on the peninsula, Ukraine immediately sent troops to Donbass, not giving the miners a chance for a peaceful settlement. Introduce your troops there and there would be such a dance that would drive the last nail into fraternal relations. This is exactly what Western scriptwriters were counting on, stretching this conflict. Now only time and work with future generations. This is my opinion.

[Sergey Sfiedu]

"Crimea has always been on a special status" - Karabakh has always been on a special status - NKAO - have you heard?
"Ukraine immediately sent troops to Donbass" - in 1988 the Azerbaijanis began massacres of the Armenians living in Azerbaijan. After the massacre, no peaceful solution to the conflict was possible in principle.

[iouris]

Quote: Senka Mad

Armenians occupied foreign territories

This is not true. Armenians live in their homes. The truth is that in 1991 Armenians were killed in Azerbaijan because they were Armenians.

[icant007]

The truth is that in 1991 Armenians were killed in Azerbaijan because they were Armenians.

The truth is that Armenia dug up the ax of war in 1988. The Armenians were the first to drive the Azerbaijanis out of Armenia. Then Sumgait happened.
In 1991, the Azerbaijanis had practically no armed formations. They began to be actively created only in the fall after the Emergency Committee.
But the Armenian armed formations already in the winter of 1990 actively attacked Azerbaijani villages, which defended only units of the SA and internal troops.
Already in the summer of 1990, the inaction of the central authorities in Yerevan and Moscow led to the fact that the number of Armenian militants, according to various estimates, reached 5 thousand people.
They were even armed with hailstorm artillery, which they adapted for shelling Azerbaijani villages and units of the SA.
At the end of July 1990, a decree of the President of the USSR on the disarmament of illegal armed groups was approximately issued, but it was not implemented.
Nobody on the territory of Armenia gave an order to disarm the militants.
But the militants, taking advantage of their impunity, almost every day attacked army warehouses. At the end of May 1990 in Yerevan in broad daylight there was a complete attack on the guard of the internal troops at the station. There were 11 people as I remember.
The lieutenant commander died. All soldiers were injured. The attackers are destroyed.
On the evening of the same day, militants attacked the military town of a unit of the internal troops in Yerevan. There was a battle, Lieutenant Colonel Chekmarev was killed.
And there are dozens of such examples on the territory of Armenia.

90 percent of the information in the 90-91 combat reports related to attacks exactly Armenians, but not Azerbaijanis. They simply had no one to fight with.
And when, in May 1991, Moscow finally decided to disarm the Armenian militants. An example is the village of Chaikend, if my memory serves me right. The Armenian public screamed about another genocide.
Azerbaijan waited until the very end for Moscow to resolve the issue. And when, with the collapse of the USSR, Moscow withdrew its troops from Karabakh and from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Azerbaijan itself had to defend itself against the aggressor with its only formed units, which naturally did not have the level of training that the Armenians had.
Let me summarize: Armenia, taking advantage of Moscow's weakness, actually created a state not controlled by the center already in 1990. She seized Karabakh and a number of border regions of Azerbaijan by force. How great is the role of external forces in this process is a question.

And the question is, what did Armenia get from all this? Thousands of victims, a dire economic situation, and a ring of enemies around.
Armenia was simply set up, playing on national feelings. And they continue to substitute now ...

[RuSFr]

With the ax of war, everything is somewhat different.
It was dug up by party functionaries.
After the end of the Uzbek case, the reinforced investigative teams of Glyana-Ivanov arrived simultaneously in the Armenian and Azerbaijani SSR.
The functionaries-leaders of both republics decided to flee by playing nationalist cards.
Somehow it is not customary to remember that apart from Azerbaijanis, Russians and Armenians participated in the Sumgait pogrom ...
Then the Armenians began to act more aggressively and arrogantly than the Azerbaijanis. Even if their actions went against the aspirations of their people.
For example, after the earthquake in Spitak, two battalions of the civil defense regiment from Baku arrived at the border on the second day. Fully equipped with equipment mobilized from the enterprises of the city of Baku. But they were not allowed to go to the rescue site. They offered to transfer the equipment and leave. It was clear that the technique would be lost. But heavy equipment was driven by BTA aircraft from all over the country, but it did not have time to arrive in order to save people in the rubble. In January 1989, one of the places where the received equipment was being prepared for resale to other republics was discovered

[RuSFr]

Second example. My grandson studied at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute. Dispatched the army and returned to college again. Immediately after the earthquake in the morning, 106 students left for Spitak. In addition to their clothes from the civil defense service, they received a cotton overalls and a pair of rubber boots. We worked for six hours: 6 hours shift, 6 hours rest and then cyclically.
On the second day, the rubber boots were out of order. My feet were constantly wet ...
At this time, the Ministry of Defense donated 10000 tarpaulin boots to help the victims.
Students came to receive these boots. They treated in a huge heap right on the concrete slabs of the airfield. So the Armenians brought whole boots into the trailer, and gave out spoiled ones. Each boot was punched from the inside in the foot with a knife.
Bastards ... We saw how the plane came with help. A crowd of Armenians came over. They snatched the best things right from the plane, and threw the rest into puddles. When, after another two or three days, the students flew away, everything looked like a huge garbage dump.
For some Armenians, the people who suffered were just rubbish

[icant007]

Moreover, such consequences of an earthquake are largely due to total theft at construction sites. Houses were built practically from sand.

[icant007]

Quote: RuSFr

It was dug up by party functionaries.

They certainly played their role, but the "Karabakh" committee was not born in a party environment.

[Sergey Sfiedu]

"The Armenians have occupied foreign territories, and the people of Donbass are defending their homes" - what kind of demagoguery? There is no absolute truth in such conflicts. For Armenians, Karabakh is as alien as it is for Russia, Crimea. The author is absolutely right - now the development of events is being closely monitored in Kiev, and in Donetsk, and in Lugansk. And they draw conclusions. Sad for Donbass, I think.

[Rudkovsky]

And How? Protected? Years have passed, in Ukraine they calmly speak Russian, they do not cut anyone, they do not kill anyone. Odessa and Kharkov that destroyed the provocateurs are peaceful cities under a peaceful sky, living their own lives.

And here we return to the "republics" that exist under the boot of curators and oligarchs who squeeze out everything that can be squeezed out of them. And the population is assigned the role of livestock, which at the very least gets food and a place in the stall, and for this the owners should be grateful.

[113262a]

Che, collapsed from an oak tree? Why not zpovna rozumu?))) Have you been to Lugansk for a long time? Kommunalka is 5 times less than VNA, prices in markets and markets are lower, fuels and lubricants are cheaper, there are no fascists - we extinguish the forest ourselves, and do not wait for complete burnout, like beyond the Donets! And the residents of Novaya Kondrashevka, whom your drying along the whole street mixed with sand, and the peaceful people of Lugansk, who were smeared on the asphalt by your soldiers of the world, are also provocateurs?

[gsev]

Quote: Rudkovsky

Years have passed, in Ukraine they speak Russian calmly

Now Ukrainian punitive forces in the north of Donetsk and Luhansk regions have staged an intolerable regime for its residents, who are considered not Ukrainian nationalists. It is more difficult for them to obtain permission to visit another settlement than for the inhabitants of the DPRK. Moreover, they can scoff at them and cancel passes at each checkpoint, if they consider the look not obsequious enough.

[Civil]

Unfortunately, the restrained position of the Russian Federation in this conflict may well be misinterpreted by them as a manifestation of weakness and incapacity.

What sudden movements can be, the fate of gas pipelines is on the agenda. Azerbaijan correctly calculated the time of the attack, at the time of the weakening of Russia on all foreign policy fronts.

[svp67]

Quote: Senka Mad

And what is the similarity? The Armenians have occupied foreign territories, and the people of Donbass are defending their

Are you asking what are the similarities? Well, probably the fact that there, that they live there, in the majority of people of non-titular nationalities. What is there, what is there, taking up arms, they are trying to defend their identity ...

[maykl8]

The Armenians have occupied foreign territories, and the people of Donbass are defending their homes.

Armenians have been living in Nagorno-Karabakh for the last 3000 years, they also have houses there.

[asr55]

You yourself would first study the issue of the 1000-year history of the NKR and the reason for which they separated.

[paul3390]

Impossible. For if Putin surrenders Donbass, the people will forgive him for sure. And behind him, and so the jambs, both outside and inside the country - oh, how many are listed ... There is something to remember .. There is something to ask for.

[iouris]

Quote: paul3390

For if Putin surrenders Donbass, the people will forgive him for sure.

"Force majeure circumstances" may arise. Why not? The history of the country shows that this happens more often than once every hundred years. And the people ... will grind.

[asr55]

You yourself are a cant, and noble. What are the prerequisites for your vyser that Russia will surrender the Donbass? Just to star! "For" like Ostap.

[paul3390]

Zyu, pro-Putin monkey. Go kiss your employers voluptuously.

[Imperial Technocrat]

It has been said for a long time: in the case of a campaign of 404th in the last cauldron, 404 will lose its statehood. Loxly figured it out

[Vadim237]

Unfortunately for Donbass, in contrast to 2014 and 2015, the situation has changed dramatically in favor of Ukraine, with weapons pumping it to the maximum and soon more shock UAVs will appear in service.

[parusnik]

Yes, there are some similarities, but there are also some differences ... Donbass and Karabakh are not the same thing. But in principle, a sudden blow is possible, according to the Croatian version, when they quickly put an end to the Republic of Srpska, which had already existed for several years. biding his time, but not this year.

[Reptiloid]

Quote: parusnik

..... Ukraine is biding its time, but not this year.

these intentions are. They sometimes talk.

[Vladimir B.]

Quote: parusnik

Croatian version

Then NATO helped the Croats, if I am not mistaken. Do you think the use of NATO forces will be possible in Donbas?

[samarin1969]

Big difference. Karabakh has more chances to survive. Pashinyan arrives openly and announced mobilization. Maybe the Armenians with the help of the diaspora will be able to "fix the front".
The LDNR has less chances. In Donbass, all participants in the Minsk process are trying to channel the social tension of desperate people into surrender.

[Vadim237]

"Karabakh has a better chance of surviving. Pashinyan arrives openly and announced mobilization." It will not help in any way from the loss of Karabakh - this is how cannon fodder is recruited for kamikaze drones of the artillery of attack UAVs and Spikes - Azerbaijan, while the equipment of Karabakh is decreasing by tens of units every day.

[Azis]

Can Kiev count on ...

Poland, with a squeal of delight, will fit in, if only they gave the go-ahead

[your1970]

Quote: Azis

Can Kiev count on ...

Poland, with a squeal of delight, will fit in, if only they gave the go-ahead

To the war? It won't fit ... Snatching / dividing is easy ... I would rather believe that Poland will annex Lviv for itself, than that Polish troops will fight in Donbass ... They need it ??? !!

[Azis]

Quote: your1970

... They need it ??? !!

That they do not always need the Poles themselves understand, but to spit in the direction of Russia is always the case, while in Russia positive feelings prevail among many people towards Donbass. And they will easily fit into the war, not into one mug, of course, some sprat will be tightened up. Moreover, they have units that have been tested in Afghanistan, Iraq and HZ. where else in the framework of partner programs.

[Vladimir B.]

Is the scenario of Nagorno-Karabakh possible in the Donbas in the event of Azerbaijan's victory: reflections on the development of events

No. Not possible. Neo-Banderites will break off their teeth about Donbass.

[113262a]

Yes, they will easily stick! Ukrosostvo is ready for this, On TV-solid Svidomo Urya, Until the first massive coffins. As for the similarity of the situation with Karabakh, the border is with the Russian Federation, here it is! Yes, perhaps Russia, as at 14, will pull with the intervention (oh, and it was not sweet for us then), but the north wind will blow a hell of a lot!

[Asad]

I wonder how much your communal apartment costs? Recently, it seems, they found out that it is about the same in Russia and in Ukraine? I'm in Novosibirsk for 40 square meters of 2,5 tons of payment?

[svp67]

Without modernizing the air defense system and means, the situation in the war in Donbass threatens to follow the Croatian-Karabakh scenario, given that Ukraine is now discussing the purchase of another 46 attack UAVs from Turkey ...

[Maks1995]

Sooner or later it will happen.
LDNR is needed by Russia only as a buffer zone. Invest, admit? There are no idiots.

The organizers have already returned to Russia, (I don’t know what%, but many, sometimes announce the list)
Ukraine has somehow stabilized and built up an army. Whenever possible, it will try to solve the problem. It depends only on the mind, and how convenient the case is.

Remember Grozny. A similar problem, the city was partially erased, but returned to the composition. Does anyone remember especially about "women and children who died in the shelling" ???
A little bit. Sometimes. Not in Moscow.
They only remember the security forces, the militants, the terrorist attacks that really happened, yes.

So everything will be the same there, the only question is when?
I remember that in 18-19, they panickedly announced the start of the offensive right up to the day, in the photo, data on the pulling together of troops, etc. ... It's a shame for lying to no one then ...

[svoit]

It is not clear what is the "gateway of interpretation"? It is so indeed. And the fact that Russia did not prevent this exacerbation preemptively is just what it says. It would have been enough for Putin to call Aliyev the day before.

[your1970]

Quote: svoit

It would have been enough for Putin to call Aliyev the day before.

In politics, it is customary to offer something IN REPLACE ... And if you just scare, there is a great chance that you will not be afraid and then you will have to fight. We only lack the war in the Caucasus for the fullness of happiness

[Sancho_SP]

The main difference is that the military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine are incomparable. If Russia fits in for Donbas even with the help of the ichtamnets, Ukraine will not do anything at all, never in any way, but rather even lose part of its territories. Therefore, everything here is tied to Russia's reluctance to annex Donbas for economic reasons.

But Azerbaijan will do it for itself, and against Karabakh, and against all of Armenia. Until recently, this was hampered by doubts about their abilities. Until Armenia recognizes Karabakh, in the event of a military defeat, it can always leave this war on the wave of "and we have nothing to do here at all, but you staged genocide."

[border]

Quote: icant007

The truth is that in 1991 Armenians were killed in Azerbaijan because they were Armenians.

The truth is that Armenia dug up the ax of war in 1988. The Armenians were the first to drive the Azerbaijanis out of Armenia. Then Sumgait happened.
In 1991, the Azerbaijanis had practically no armed formations. They began to be actively created only in the fall after the Emergency Committee.
But the Armenian armed formations already in the winter of 1990 actively attacked Azerbaijani villages, which defended only units of the SA and internal troops.
Already in the summer of 1990, the inaction of the central authorities in Yerevan and Moscow led to the fact that the number of Armenian militants, according to various estimates, reached 5 thousand people.
They were even armed with hailstorm artillery, which they adapted for shelling Azerbaijani villages and units of the SA.
At the end of July 1990, a decree of the President of the USSR on the disarmament of illegal armed groups was approximately issued, but it was not implemented.
Nobody on the territory of Armenia gave an order to disarm the militants.
But the militants, taking advantage of their impunity, almost every day attacked army warehouses. At the end of May 1990 in Yerevan in broad daylight there was a complete attack on the guard of the internal troops at the station. There were 11 people as I remember.
The lieutenant commander died. All soldiers were injured. The attackers are destroyed.
On the evening of the same day, militants attacked the military town of a unit of the internal troops in Yerevan. There was a battle, Lieutenant Colonel Chekmarev was killed.
And there are dozens of such examples on the territory of Armenia.

90 percent of the information in the 90-91 combat reports related to attacks exactly Armenians, but not Azerbaijanis. They simply had no one to fight with.
And when, in May 1991, Moscow finally decided to disarm the Armenian militants. An example is the village of Chaikend, if my memory serves me right. The Armenian public screamed about another genocide.
Azerbaijan waited until the very end for Moscow to resolve the issue. And when, with the collapse of the USSR, Moscow withdrew its troops from Karabakh and from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Azerbaijan itself had to defend itself against the aggressor with its only formed units, which naturally did not have the level of training that the Armenians had.
Let me summarize: Armenia, taking advantage of Moscow's weakness, actually created a state not controlled by the center already in 1990. She seized Karabakh and a number of border regions of Azerbaijan by force. How great is the role of external forces in this process is a question.

And the question is, what did Armenia get from all this? Thousands of victims, a dire economic situation, and a ring of enemies around.
Armenia was simply set up, playing on national feelings. And they continue to substitute now ...

Stop distorting the facts: Sumgait with ethnic pogroms in Azerbaijan at the end of February 1988, and then everything else. I can't say that everything was completely calm on the Armenian territory, but no one burned the Azerbaijani villages at that time.

[icant007]

Stop distorting the facts: Sumgait with ethnic pogroms in Azerbaijan at the end of February 1988, and then everything else. I can't say that everything was completely calm on the Armenian territory, but no one burned the Azerbaijani villages at that time.

And Sumgait began after what? ........ That's right, after the decision of Karabakh to join Armenia.
I am not making any excuses for Sumgait. But these were not the first victims.
The first were two Azerbaijanis in Askeran.

[The eye of the crying]

If Donbass returns to Ukraine, it will have to be restored, its residents will be able to vote - why does Ukraine need it? Costs and losses. With all the rhetoric, no one will fight back Donbass by force.

[DWG1905]

In its pure form, the scenario is not possible. With regard to Karabakh, I think the Azerbaijanis will occupy part of the foothills and at this base they will move to the positional stage. They have no resources, and they probably have the skills to conduct a blitzkrieg. The Turks will not fight for them. They are gathering infantry in the Middle East, but they won't get much. Regarding Donbass, we need to see how the elections are overseas, where the curve will lead. And so reanimation is possible, for example, if you unfreeze the conflict in Transnistria, and Ukraine to arrange a blockade, then you will have to cut the corridor. How to cut is already a matter of strategy. I think in the General Staff all operations are planned, everything is calculated. And we will agree with the Poles, it is clear on what. A 46 UAV is on the day of the war, if for an adult with air defense, electronic warfare. With blows to control points.

[Shadow041]

And that on the Russian Federation the world has come together like a wedge, only the Russian Federation is a member of the CSTO ?! If Kazakhstan and Belarus do not send their troops, why should the Russian Federation send them ?! In addition, I have always considered and continue to consider the CSTO a waste of money from the budget of the Russian Federation! All these independent and multi-vector attacks on the Russian Federation will not help the Russian Federation, they even do not recognize Crimea as a part of the Russian Federation! So the Russian Federation should not protect them and fight with anyone because of them! The same Armenia did not send a single battalion to the aid of the Russian Federation, when the Russian Federation fought with the Ichkerists and Saakashvili, neither Belarus nor Kazakhstan did this! So why should I suddenly go to fight for those who did not want to fight for me !? Personally, I will not go to war on principle for states independent of the Russian Federation, and no one attacks the Russian Federation yet !!!

[border]

Quote: icant007

Stop distorting the facts: Sumgait with ethnic pogroms in Azerbaijan at the end of February 1988, and then everything else. I can't say that everything was completely calm on the Armenian territory, but no one burned the Azerbaijani villages at that time.

And Sumgait began after what? ........ That's right, after the decision of Karabakh to join Armenia.
I am not making any excuses for Sumgait. But these were not the first victims.
The first were two Azerbaijanis in Askeran.

The decision to join the NKAO to Armenia in February 1988 did not legally exist. There were only letters, notes in the media, etc. Rumor-influenced refugees appeared in February. and 2 dead - this is a motive and a detonator - Casus belli.