How secure is the Northern Sea Route militarily: assessments and problems

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the shortest sea route between the European part of Russia and the Far East. The length of the NSR from Kara Gate to Provideniya Bay is about 5600 km. The Northern Sea Route serves the ports of the Arctic and large rivers of Siberia.

In 2014, the Joint Strategic Command "North" was created, designed to comprehensively ensure the security of the Arctic region of Russia. Among the main tasks of this security is the defense of the Northern Sea Route. The command includes the fleet, naval aviation, coastal troops and air defense. The main force is the Northern Fleet, and its commander is in charge of the North command. But with fleet we have big and hard-to-solve problems.

There are few modern ships, too minuscule of the required amount is being built. We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet. One of our aircraft carriers is almost constantly under repair. So counting on the fleet in the event of a serious conflict with a strong enemy, I think, is not particularly worth it.

At a recent board meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry, Sergei Shoigu said that in the Arctic and the eastern region it is necessary to strengthen and update the military potential of Russia. According to him, by the end of the year the Eastern Military District will receive over 500 units of new and modernized equipment. This will make it possible to re-equip 14 formations, in particular, two anti-aircraft missile regiments for the S-400 complexes and two anti-aircraft missile divisions for the Buk-M1-2 complexes.

The Northern Fleet is equipped with modern military equipment adapted for use in the harsh Arctic conditions. This year he will receive 179 weapons. The fleet has already been replenished with the Knyaz Vladimir nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and the Admiral Kasatonov frigate, the Akademik Pashin sea tanker and the Nikolay Skosyrev hydrographic vessel. In recent years, the Northern Fleet has been actively adopting the Tor-M2DT air defense system, the main group of which is deployed on the Kola Peninsula.

An important role is played by units of air defense fighter aircraft, which have MiG-31 aircraft of various modifications. But there are problems. For example, the former Commander of the Russian Air Force, General Viktor Bondarev, once stated that the MiG-31, which previously had a speed of up to 2,83 M, does not accelerate to 1,5 M due to problems with the reliability of the cockpit canopy glass. Such glass is not produced in Russia. He also said that the element base of the onboard electronics of the MiG-31 is based on the technologies of the 60s and does not lend itself to modernization, "it is completely outdated, the programs cannot be changed." Metal fatigue affects. The northern borders are covered by only two IAP with MiG-31, in Perm and Kansk. It is believed that this is enough, since, according to calculations, a group of four aircraft controls the airspace along the front up to 1100 km. This is for the entire 5500 km of the NSR!

There are statements about the deep modernization of these machines. But there is no systematic update.

In addition, the fleet of bomber and reconnaissance aircraft of the Northern Fleet is outdated. An example of this is the disaster on January 22.01.2019, 22, the Tu-3MXNUMX. When landing at the Olenya base, the plane broke into pieces.

New radars have been deployed, for example, "Sky-M". An Arctic force grouping has been created, equipped with weapons and equipment adapted to polar conditions. A military base was built on the Franz Josef Land archipelago for 150 people, an airfield for receiving all types of aircraft. Infrastructure, including for military purposes, is being built along the entire polar coast. Exercises are in progress.

It seems that the NSR and our entire Arctic are reliably protected. But the problem is in Russian weapons, in their compliance with the requirements of modern warfare of a new order. Is the Russian army capable of providing reliable protection of the country with its help?

Today, conflicts are fought with more than conventional weapons. And we are not always on top here. There is something to think about for the leadership of the country and the Armed Forces.

So, I would not be so categorical about reliable protection of the NSR. One thing is reassuring: it is unlikely that someone will start a war for control over him "here and now." The question is the relevance and economic feasibility of its use. So far, frankly, there are not many companies that are ready to change the traditional routes for the delivery of goods from Europe to Asia to the Northern Sea Route, even though it is shorter.

Comments

[iouris]

How poorly protected ...

[rocket757]

The question is - who is prepared, although it would not be worse, what would take at least some real action in that region ???
The answer is simple, so far no one, and such plans remain plans for a long time, ad infinitum!
There is, of course, an aspect that should be given due attention, this is protection against missile attack !!!
But there are such open spaces, they gave it, that it is problematic to block everything and everything. Then, the package attack is held back not by the presence of air defense - missile defense, but by the fact that such an attack will become final for any aggressor, which is stated in the military doctrine of our state.

[Doccor18]

There is, of course, an aspect that should be given due attention, this is protection against missile attack !!!

I absolutely agree with you.
If the fleet is not able to cover the northern sea border and will not be able to do it for a long time, then it is quite capable of developing a new and modernizing the existing airfield network. Russian pilots have a wealth of experience in flying in northern latitudes. We need a new combat aircraft.
Upgraded Torah and Buki on arctic chassis should cover these airfields.

... does not accelerate to 1,5M due to problems with the reliability of the cockpit canopy glass. Such glass is not produced in Russia. He also said that the element base of the MiG-31 onboard electronics is based on technologies from the 60s and does not lend itself to modernization, "it is completely outdated, the programs cannot be changed" ... 

True, when you read this, you just want to scream ...

[rocket757]

So here we count all new aircraft of Mach 1,5 and maybe even more, glass problems are solved, like many others! They will not deliver anything to us from behind the hill, we will have to do everything ourselves!
I will not say that we are doing well ... problems are over the roof, but time and hard work cures all problems.
Break through, not the first time!

[Mountain shooter]

Quote: rocket757

So here we count all new aircraft of Mach 1,5 and maybe even more, glass problems are solved, like many others! They will not deliver anything to us from behind the hill, we will have to do everything ourselves

All these glasses are already doing this! What a question? When was this for Migov lantern glasses supplied from abroad? And why are they undergoing modernization? Well the author! There is not plexiglass, but polycarbonate. And on the visor there is a triplex.

[rocket757]

So in times of dashing, many things could / could not ...
Authors, often, operate on data from that not the best time. The situation is changing for the better ... we may not be very fast, but the process is going on.

[Boris Chernikov]

yes, everything is trite ... the author -> the author -> the author pulled out an article by Bondarenko .... from the 2013th year ... he also said about the MiG-31BM that he did not understand why she was ...

[Alexey RA]

Quote: Boris Chernikov

yes, everything is trite .. author -> author -> author -> author pulled out an article by Bondarenko ... from 2013 ... he also said about the MiG-31BM that he did not understand why she was ...

Yeah ... it's especially good to read in 2020 about the fact that:

The northern borders are covered by only two IAP with MiG-31, in Perm and Kansk. It is believed that this is enough, since, according to calculations, a group of four aircraft controls the airspace along the front up to 1100 km. This is for the entire 5500 km of the NSR!
There are statements about the deep modernization of these machines. But there is no systematic update.

While already in 2019, about 150 MiG-31s ​​were upgraded:

The main contractor for the modernization of the MiG-31 is the Sokol NAZ, which first carried out modernization under separate contracts, and in recent years has carried out these works under two contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense - the contract of August 1, 2011 for modernization into the MiG- 31BM / BSM by 2019 60 MiG-31 combatant fighters, and an additional contract of November 2014, according to which another 53 MiG-31 combatant fighter should be modernized, with the completion of work by the end of 2018.

Apparently, both of these contracts have now been completed, which required the conclusion of a new contract for the modernization of the MiG-31.
(...)
In total, so far, taking into account the MiG-31 aircraft that were upgraded at NAZ Sokol under earlier contracts until 2012, as well as aircraft upgraded at the 514th ARZ in Rzhev, the total number of serially upgraded MiG-31BM / BSM delivered since 2007 in the Russian Armed Forces should reach, according to available information, about 150 units (three of which have already been lost). This number does not include MiG-31DZ fighters converted into MiG-31K carrier aircraft of the Kinzhal missile system (at least 12 aircraft).

© bmpd
Moreover, in 2019, another contract was signed for the modernization of the MiG-31 - under which, judging by the number of already modernized sides, the vehicles went from storage.

[Boris Chernikov]

in catching up .. the glazing problem in 2014 was still decided ..

[timokhin-aa]

The question is - who is prepared, although it would not be worse, what would take at least some real action in that region ???

The Americans are many times, if not ten times better.

[rocket757]

Oh well ... do they even know about it?
And then their admirals in the ice as it is not very striving. Interesno why?

[timokhin-aa]

They know.

And they are quite present in the ice on a scale incomparable with ours.

With one amendment - when they are there, the ice is ABOVE THEM.

Understand what I am?

[rocket757]

Well, and they get stuck there regularly.
The problem is that the nuclear submarine is a small component of everything else and under the ice, you can't really roam around, because it is necessary to emerge, to search for polynyas, etc., etc.
So far, this is their priority, but this does not greatly affect the global balance of power.

[timokhin-aa]

A boat of 9000 tons cannot get stuck in a hole, you were deceived.

They influence the global balance of forces there - when they get the opportunity to take out SSBNs, they have the opportunity to take out our strategic nuclear forces in general.

They don't need to float there, our boats - their targets - are also under the ice

[ZEMCH]

The ASW problem is urgent, especially in the north. I hope they come to a solution.

[timokhin-aa]

If they have time. And then the situation is heating up ...

[rocket757]

The argument doesn't make sense.

[Boris Chernikov]

well, you ask the author of the article for the 90s to find, so that with a guarantee everyone would feel bad, and even let him say that in case of accidents the planes burn out ... and before the accidents themselves ..

[timokhin-aa]

This is some kind of school approach.

There is reality, in which we have a certain balance of forces with the enemy.
Real, not the one that the students fantasized.

Everything else does not matter from the word "at all"

[Boris Chernikov]

this is not reality, this is a selection of facts, both outdated and already false, and far-fetched with an attempt to pass off some events as "facts" .. a simple question .. like the fact that the Tu-22m3 crashed and collapsed in general under adverse weather conditions and pilot errors attitude to the NSR?

[timokhin-aa]

Well, give you your version of reality here.

For example, let's start with anti-torpedoes - are they on our submarines?

a simple question .. how is the fact that the Tu-22m3 crashed and collapsed under adverse weather conditions and pilot errors is generally related to the NSR?

No way. Once again, I ask you to grow up.

[Boris Chernikov]

lol, but let's go through the article, we are discussing it) or was it a hand washes and criticizing Topvar's aftors is prohibited by law for game in the article?

[timokhin-aa]

I am not defending the author of the article. I commented on the comments. And the article contains a lot of different things, yes.

[Boris Chernikov]

yes, I would say that there is more incorrect information than correct)

[Egor53]

timokhin-aa "Americans are many times, if not ten times better."

Well, yes, American atomic icebreakers from the Potomac River do not dare to leave the Potomac River, probably Congress does not issue appropriate sanctions ..

[timokhin-aa]

What does the icebreakers have to do with it?

[Livonetc]

"We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet. One of our aircraft carriers is almost constantly under repair."
Why, in an article about the Northern Sea Route, discuss the topic of building aircraft carriers?

[Kart]

Because you need to collect negative messages at any cost.
It is strange that Rogozin and pensioners were not mentioned.

[stalkerwalker]

Quote: Carte

It's strange that Rogozin and pensioners are not mentioned

Oh .. Come on ...

There, an article "say a word about poor teachers" was posted ..
Nobody is forgotten. The site is slowly and surely falling under Navalny.

[hagen]

Quote: stalkerwalker

The site is slowly and surely falling under Navalny.

Navalny is trying to put at least something under his statements. He lies as he breathes, but at least tries to substantiate his accusations. On VO and this is not ...

[stalkerwalker]

Quote: Hagen

Quote: stalkerwalker

The site is slowly and surely falling under Navalny.

Navalny is trying to put at least something under his statements. He lies as he breathes, but at least tries to substantiate his accusations. On VO and this is not ...

[Kote Pan Kokhanka]

Quote: stalkerwalker

Quote: Carte

It's strange that Rogozin and pensioners are not mentioned

Oh .. Come on ...

There, an article "say a word about poor teachers" was posted ..
Nobody is forgotten. The site is slowly and surely falling under Navalny.

Sadly, but apparently it is.
Instead of a multifaceted interesting electronic resource, we get something digestible for "hamsters"!
I always loved VO for its reasoned "prickly" and informational "toothiness".
Regards, Vlad.

[stalkerwalker]

This trend began to manifest itself on the eve of the presidential elections in February-March 2018. And since then it has only intensified.
Hamsters have been known for a long time and by name. This is the chorus that enters with the aria "Let Me Devour!" at the wave of the conductor's baton.
Many bison left the site, which did not allow hamsters to calmly carry nonsense and nonsense. But they were literally promoted from the site. And everyone knows - by whose efforts.

[Mordvin 3]

Quote: Carte

It is strange that Rogozin and pensioners were not mentioned.

And you need it?

[novel66]

no5, but why not kick something?

[Sergei Sovetkin]

And you essentially have nothing more to say, or just to say?

[Livonetc]

Quote: Sergei Sovetkin

There are few modern ships, too minuscule of the required amount is being built. We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet. One of our aircraft carriers is almost constantly under repair. So counting on the fleet in the event of a serious conflict with a strong enemy, I think, is not particularly worth it.

Sergey, Hello!

Thank you for the article!
I put a plus right away.

Actually, to the essence of my remark.
Exclusively from the sphere of perception of the submitted material.
Which is somewhat discordant and interferes with perception.
For example first.
"There are few modern ships, too little of the required number is being built. We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet. One of our aircraft carriers is almost constantly under repair. So I think it is not worth counting on the fleet in the event of a serious conflict with a strong enemy."
followed by
"The Northern Fleet is being equipped with modern military equipment adapted for use in the harsh Arctic conditions. This year it will receive 179 weapons. The nuclear submarine missile cruiser Knyaz Vladimir and the frigate Admiral of the Fleet Kasatonov, a sea tanker, have already joined the fleet. "Akademik Pashin" and the hydrographic vessel "Nikolai Skosyrev." In recent years, the Northern Fleet has been actively adopting the Tor-M2DT air defense missile systems, the main group of which is deployed on the Kola Peninsula. "

The Northern Fleet network, which has, in particular, the task of protecting the NSR has good development prospects.
Are there very serious investments in ice-class shipbuilding?

The following is an overview of the shortcomings, all kinds of improvements and changes for the better in terms of the protection of the SPM.
You end up generally with the topic of economic expediency

"The question is the relevance and economic feasibility of its use. So far, frankly, there are not many companies that are ready to change the traditional routes for the delivery of goods from Europe to Asia to the Northern Sea Route, even though it is shorter."

The perception of the article is somewhat chaotic.
And the thesis about the construction of aircraft carriers does not at all echo the stated topic of the article.

Well, in essence.
By the way, in Yamal, for example, very serious volumes of oil are already being produced and new fields with very large reserves have been explored.
LNG production facilities and terminals have been built in the SPM zone.
a very significant fleet of ice-class civil ships has been built and is under construction.
Already these possibilities serve as an initiating basis for the implementation of the NSR.
And as you master the project, other interested persons will appear.
It's like the promotion of new types of weapons to the market.
Until the system is put into service in the country of the manufacturer and has not been tested in the troops, it is difficult to find buyers of such products.

Thanks again for the article and sorry for the criticism.

Sincerely

Gennady

[Sergei Sovetkin]

Gennady, I perceive criticism quite adequately. Scratches, sometimes, but bearable if on business. Here, after all, everyone sees everything in his own way. On Yamal and the demand for the way, I posted here in the form of a comment on one of the comments. Everything is generally justified there. And in general, about the protection of the route, and not the entire coast and the country from a blow on it from this direction. These are different questions, you must agree. There is no one to protect the ships from, the Somali pirates will definitely not get there. Plus, you can defend against whose attacks? except in case of war. But there and during the war there will be nothing to defend. And the sea route did not and will not have strategic importance for the military. There, assault forces will not land to create bridgeheads. And in peacetime, all the more interested in swimming calmly on it. And about the ability of the Armed Forces to protect and repel threats, the power of our weapons is a matter of faith. Some consider our weapons to be unparalleled and the army is the strongest in the world, and believe in the security of the path and country, others do not, and therefore do not believe or, like me, doubt, looking at the results of their combat use and having information from the same air defense officers, served on the same S-300.
Best regards, Sergei

[Livonetc]

Thank you.
An interesting addition ..

[ZEMCH]

Quote: Sergei Sovetkin

And the sea route did not and will not have strategic importance for the military.

This is in vain!)) It will be necessary to ferry boats and ships to the Pacific Fleet through the NSR, everything else is long and sad. By land, resources explored along the coast cannot be delivered everywhere

[Boris Chernikov]

Well, maybe next time you will write facts, and not pull them up to fit your theory?

[Kote Pan Kokhanka]

Dear Sergey!
You have already essentially been offered to "freeze Russia's only aircraft carrier" in the middle of the blue Arctic Ocean.
By the way, thanks for the raised problem.

[Boris Chernikov]

please ... 2016

The RT-Khimkompozit holding (part of the Rostec State Corporation) has mastered the serial production of silicate glazing products to replace organic glazing in the entire fleet of MiG-31 aircraft. At present, the holding company meets the requirements in full of all enterprises modernizing MiG-31 aircraft.

“The center of structural optics created on the basis of the merger of two enterprises, ONPP Tekhnologiya and JSC NITS, is already showing its results. At the moment, we meet the needs of all enterprises that repair and modernize the MiG-31 aircraft fleet and carry out scheduled deliveries of products to customers under nine contracts at the same time, "said Kirill Shubsky, General Director of RT-Khimkompozit holding.

The need to develop a new silicate glazing for the MiG-31 instead of organic glass was associated with the fact that over time, the defect of "silver" appears on organic glass. This defect reduces the strength and optical properties of organic glass, limiting the use of aircraft in all modes.

In this regard, the enterprise "RT-Khimkompozit" JSC "NITS" was entrusted with R&D for the creation of silicate glazing products for the MiG-31 cockpit, which was successfully completed in 2014. In the same year, serial production began silicate products, with the involvement of technological capacities of JSC "ONPP" Technology ". Since 2016, serial deliveries to aviation enterprises have doubled, as a result of which NITS JSC has successfully completed the state defense order for 2016 to re-equip the MiG-31 with silicate glazing.

[Lipchanin]

So far, frankly, there are not many companies that are ready to change the traditional routes for the delivery of goods from Europe to Asia to the Northern Sea Route, even though it is shorter.

Well, it's still out of habit to go the old ways. Yes, it seems to me they are afraid of the northern routes. But still, one day they will count everything and the economic effect will have its say

[novel66]

and icebreaker assistance is also worth money !!! bring me, buddy

[Lipchanin]

Quote: novel xnumx

and icebreaker assistance is also worth money !!! bring me, buddy

You know how difficult it is to answer this question without knowing everything.
But since the question of protection is so acute, it means that it is still profitable to walk on it.

[2 Level Advisor]

just in terms of economy, Suez definitely wins .. it is still more than one decade to invest and develop in the NSR, in order to take a more or less noticeable share and become a competitor .. while the difference is 100 times between them ..
1) we need money for wiring, for insurance, provision of ships on the way, our bureaucracy is wild, there are several hours of coordination, sometimes we have up to a month, the possibility of repairs on the way, stops ..
2) in addition, on the way, for example, to Japan through Suez, 14 of the 20 largest ports in the world, i.e. it is simply closer to them to carry the goods through the Suez, i.e. they will never go through the NSR! Most of the large shipping companies in these ports have their own "parking": repair shops, warehouses, etc. There are simply NO major ports on the NSR route, and even more so, foreign stops.
It turns out that it is physically impossible to squeeze out more than 25 percent of the market from Suez, even if you eliminate everything that I wrote above .. and in order to eliminate this, you need to invest VERY MUCH .. and it will pay off for many, many years, if it pays off at all .. the channel is hot easier and cheaper climate will contain ...
Conclusion: you need to invest more money than Suez costs, and you will get the maximum (if Suez does not do dumping, for example)! 25 percent of its profits .. As a result, to put it mildly, a weak project - the commercial use of the NSR .. only if in Egypt, for example, a war starts or the canal is blown up .. but counting on this to build a project that will most likely never pay off- is it worth it?

[Lipchanin]

Quote: Level 2 Advisor

Suez definitely wins in terms of economics.

I repeat again. It's hard for me to judge. I don't have a lot of information. I proceed from the fact that since we are concerned about the safety of navigation along this route, it means that this is for something.

[2 Level Advisor]

If about protection, I think more of the matter is that without the NSR, aviation alone simply cannot provide our northern border ... and in addition to defenders, there are a lot of other miners .. I think for this purpose .. the safety of the NSR is their safety in first of all .. although judging by the length of the NSR, I doubt that something can be opposed to the MAPL on the way ...
and "foreigners" are in transit this is already a matter of 10th .. because as I already wrote, there is no benefit from them ..

[Lipchanin]

Well, probably it is

[Lynx2000]

Good afternoon!

On the first point:
Atomflot has to pay for escorting (escorting) ships - the issue of navigation safety. To start with the caravans. Hold icebreakers for escort along the passage for example: from Pevek to Tiksi, then the next one leads. The Chinese are building ice-class ships.
Insurance is also provided for any sea transportation ...
For vessels of transoceanic transport of 5000 km, provision for such a transition is not required. Not cabotage.
Regarding the emergency, the escort will drag it to the port, definitely west of Yamal - this is a minus. It makes no sense to maintain a ship repair for such vessels in the North.
In the economic zone, a vessel flying a foreign flag can pass. Assault stops (shelter), breakdowns are allowed under the merchant shipping code - you notify the border guards.

On the second point:
If a ship with cargo goes through Suez to Japan according to the transition plan, without emergency the captain goes to the port of destination - to Japan.
It is very expensive for large shipping companies to have their "mooring places" in the ports of Singapore, Dalian or Osaka, for example, there are owners of quay walls. The vessel is put on loading / unloading. There is a representative office in the ports. - these are ship agents, ship-chandlers, who resolve issues with provision and repair. Other companies are engaged in the repair.
In general, the ship must go more, deliver cargo, otherwise, standing at the berth is a big expense.

[2 Level Advisor]

Good day!
if the question concerns the situation when a ship with cargo goes exactly to the Sea of ​​Japan from Europe (not southern), then you are right, you can think of the NSR .. that's why I indicated about 25 percent of what can theoretically be taken from Suez .. these are just those - who goes along this route ..
but more often ships go from Europe, for example, to Malaysia, from there to Shanghai, from there to Dubai ..
Now I went to Marinetraffic - Singapore, Thailand, India, Vietnam are going through Suez in a row - why do they need the NSR? Followed by a Chinese, it is possible for him, but not a fact .. About the walls, I meant the richest large companies that are profitable due to the size of the fleet (such as Maersk), it is clear that if there are 3-4 ships in the campaign, it is stupid to take the wall.
the length of the NSR is 5600, but in theory it is possible without security, but where can he go before and after? At the beginning of these 5600 and at the end - there are no ports .. so 5000 will not come out in any way .. no matter how 10-14 came out, from coast to coast ..
In general, we are talking about the same thing, it's a difficult undertaking to try to win financially in the north of Suez, even due to geography

[Motorist]

Quote: Level 2 Advisor

while the difference is 100 times between them ..

Eck you waved! You don’t need to be a super economist to calculate everything: the cost of canal passage and icebreaker escort, daily freight, cost and fuel consumption, loading and unloading ports - I can count it in a column if data is available.

[2 Level Advisor]

I'm talking about the amount of transported goods)
NSR - out of 10,7 million tons transported in 2017, only 194 thousand tons (less than 2%) accounted for transit.
at the end of 2016, the volume of traffic through the Suez Canal amounted to 974 million tons. A similar indicator of transit through the NSR (200 thousand tons) does not yet account for even 1% in comparison with the "Egyptian route"

[Motorist]

Oh, you about the current volume of cargo transportation! Sorry, I didn't understand right away, I thought - a conversation about their cost.

[Boris Chernikov]

of course the NSR is a "bad option" that is why the transshipment there every year grows ...

[2 Level Advisor]

but as a matter of fact my arguments - have something to say? he is not bad, he is not profitable

[Boris Chernikov]

what arguments? can be numbers that can be called "arguments" and not your opinion ..

[Sergei Sovetkin]

But about this, there are big doubts even among our economists and logistics specialists. ... And practice confirms doubts - the path is almost not in demand as a transport artery. Lots of downsides. Plus one - shorter and faster. But this is like the operation of equipment and the work of the crew on it in the summer or in severe frost. Plus, for cargo that requires heat, you need to create a microclimate, special ships are needed with warm cargo spaces. And to chop ice - icebreakers are needed. They are only with us. And with our tariffs for their services, transportation is even more expensive than it will cost in the south. Plus, we need ports along the way - for repairs, replenishment of supplies, but you never know what can happen on the way. And there are many more nuances. Well, there are railway routes. And not only through Russia. And the trains have already passed through Central Asia. And China's project to create a new Silk Road has not been canceled. So it's not that simple. And we need the NSR, basically, during the summer navigation period for the delivery of goods for the winter for our Siberian and other settlements and enterprises in places not so remote. Well, the struggle for the resources of the Arctic is another matter. We ourselves no longer know how and to whom to attach these our resources at any price. You can see for yourself what is happening on the world market. And what is the point for someone to fight for our Arctic and Arctic, in order to extract something in terrible conditions there, when the Russians themselves will extract and bring everything? Yes, Novotek has built its own LNG plant in Yamal. It is for him now that state resources are thrown into the development of the NSR. And this, by the way, is a private shop, not even a State one. And does anyone need this gas? The project is old, but times have changed a lot. Potential clients are now leaning towards America. Even China is looking there, in spite of all their squabbles and scoldings, to which our leading cadres attach unjustifiably great importance.

[Fizik M]

a bit realities
Real threats in the Arctic: from under the water and from the air
https://topwar.ru/157104-byt-gotovym-v-arktike-k-realnym-ugrozam-s-vozduha-i-iz-pod-vody-lda.html

[Boris Chernikov]

since when did the calculations of the former submariner begin to be called "realities"?

[Fizik M]

1. FACTS will there be any objections?
2. with calculations it would be a CLOSED document not subject to publication

[Boris Chernikov]

Yes, yes, yes, the desire to justify yourself with the "stamp of secrecy" .. you really decide, you are either a jaundiced journalist, or "a great expert with whom the Navy consults on any issue" .. oh yes .. corvettes .. I forgot) ..

[Fizik M]

Quote: Boris Chernikov

yes, yes, yes, the desire to justify oneself with the "stamp of secrecy" ..

stupid
1. YOUR SECRET DOCUMENT is "Murzilka".
2. For a number of reasons, I do not make classified documents now, but I do (and quite a few) docks. "NON-PUBLIC"(let's say" chipboard level "). What, bunny, didn't you write about this in your training manual?

Quote: Boris Chernikov

I forgot

stupid , to "forget" something - first you need to KNOW
but it does not apply to YOU ​​from the word ABSOLUTELY

[Boris Chernikov]

yeah, all you have to do is take your word for it .. it's true that no one is your own words about "yes, I do everything to them" .. does not want to confirm .. because your fantasies are just fantasies ...

[Fizik M]

Quote: Boris Chernikov

yeah, you just have to take your word for it.

do not believe
I do not care deeply about the opinions of the petty STUFF from the divan
and if this CRAP wants to believe even in God Kuzyu - do not believe
you "prove" something ???? you are nobody and call you!

[Boris Chernikov]

Well, it's good that you called yourself Brehl .. recognition of the problem is already half of its solution .. soon it can be cured ... When in Kashchenko again?

[Fizik M]

Quote: Boris Chernikov

himself Brechl

silly, poor Borya Chern ... you're out of luck that the USSR is gone
you would be good old Soviet psychiatry, maybe you would get better

[Boris Chernikov]

can you find out exactly which economists and logistics specialists? preferably from shipping companies, if possible names ..

[novel66]

So, about the reliable protection of the NSR, I would not be so categorical

oh, the problem is! instead of nuclear icebreakers, we build nuclear freezers and during the threatened period we freeze the entire NSR

[JD1979]

Here and now, the NSR is reliably protected from threats from the United States and NATO due to the lack of both the required number of icebreakers and ice-class vessels. Only nuclear submarines can cause trouble. And then ... if the current pace of renewal continues, the tanker and hydrograph will certainly show the strength of the Russian fleet, but this is inaccurate.

[Nehist]

That's just the MAPL there and dostovyat problemma !!! We have nothing to fend off with! Klimov raised this issue more than once.

[7,62x54]

It is necessary to relocate pensioners to the Arctic, as suggested by the mouthpiece of the Kremlin Zhirinovsky. And then relying on this local population to create territorial defense units.
Each one hectare of Arctic land!

[Umalta]

The question raised in the article about the need for aircraft carriers is controversial. It is possible to find those with the available means until the moment when the land is available for its air wing, I hope no one will dispute the fact that there are such means, as well as the means to drown this aircraft carrier trough. The threat from aircraft carriers can only come from two directions east or west, this is also an indisputable fact, and there we have something to answer. The threat of nuclear submarines from the north is much more serious, but I hope that ours will nevertheless be able to build an icebreaking BOD and reinforce all this with multipurpose nuclear submarines. Perhaps, or even more likely, he missed something.

[ZEMCH]

Quote: Umalta

The threat from aircraft carriers can only come from two directions east or west

I would argue about the western direction))) it seems to me closer to the northwest. Not to be used from the Baltic because of its vulnerability to ground-based weapons. Refueling is required from the Mediterranean and North Seas. From Norwegian only, and then in summer

[Every]

We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet.

What the hell are the aircraft carriers in the north? Deck icing, unstable weather, ice finally.
What was it woven into?

[Sergei Sovetkin]

Have you tried this question about the basing of "Kuznetsov" to send Shoigu or to the main headquarters of the Navy? Yes, and does not fit the President, otherwise there are talks about the need to build new aircraft carriers. And where to base them? Again, in the north, in the frost will have to. So write before it's too late.

[Fizik M]

Quote: Sergei Sovetkin

Again, in the north, in the frost will have to.

need a fur coat

[Every]

The aircraft carriers were based in the north for the reason that from there it was possible to freely go to the Atlantic, around the Kola. He simply will not enter the Baltic, there are continuous shoals. Black is dangerous. Turkey can close the Bosphorus and lock them inside the Black Sea. DV is too far away. So they were based in the north to go out freely.
By the way, for the winter all aircraft carriers were relocated to the World Cup. After the collapse of the Union, they stopped, since the bases went to Ukraine.
In the north, ground-based aviation is much more efficient. In particular, the MIG-31 was created for this.

[ZEMCH]

Kuznetsov was in the North before the base structure was prepared for him!)) Yes, it is not there now. We really do not have bases for ships of such a displacement, as well as places for repairs.

[mark1]

The assessments are strange, the problems are far-fetched ...

[Stirbjorn]

Is the Russian army capable of providing reliable protection of the country with its help?

From the Arctic ?! And who is going to attack from there? Or armada of NATO combat icebreakers surrounded ?! It is necessary to determine the capabilities of the potential enemy and counter him. Based on the article, it sometimes seems that the author is proposing a defense in depth to build along the entire northern coast

[timokhin-aa]

From the Arctic ?! wassat Who is going to attack from there?

And where do the routes of amerskih bombers come from? And ours to them? This is the main theater

[ZEMCH]

))) before we taught geography poorly, now, apparently, it is very bad)))

According to the "Giant Spear" plan developed in the United States in the mid-80s, American strategic bombers through the North Pole were supposed to approach our shores at a distance of up to 600 km and reach targets from Murmansk to Moscow with cruise missiles.

Previously, interceptors were located in this direction from Kola to Kamchatka, now there is no such possibility (((

Having received an order to use nuclear weapons, strategic bombers are sent along individual routes to the "nuclear strike time coordination line", which in relation to Russia is located at a distance of 800-1200 km north of its borders (the western and eastern directions are less relevant because of the greater distance from targets). The total flight time from air bases in the continental United States to the launch lines against targets in Russia is from 6 to 15 hours.
The American command considers it more preferable to deliver strikes with high-precision nuclear weapons of low power - for psychological impact on the enemy without unwanted collateral losses and for resolving the conflict situation by political means on favorable terms for the United States.

This is modernity, from July 31 to August 1, 2016, two B-52 bombers flew from the continental United States to the North Pole, then turned towards the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard and then circled the Russian Arctic territories - the Alexandra Land Islands (Franz Josef Land archipelago) , Sredny Island (Severnaya Zemlya archipelago), Kotelny Islands (Novosibirsk Islands) and Wrangel Island, on which Russian military bases have recently appeared.
One B-52 from the Barksdale airbase (Louisiana) operated in the Baltic Sea region in joint operations with NATO allies to practice intercepting strategic bombers of a simulated enemy (including over western Estonia). In addition, two B-2 strategic stealth bombers from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, flew over the Pacific and conducted training bombing at a coastal range in Alaska.
American strategic bombers approached Russian territory at a distance of 70-150 km, that is, they entered the airspace over the Russian economic zone in the Arctic. At the same time, the Americans did not advertise their attention to Russia - they only officially announced the B-52 flight from the Minot airbase in North Dakota to the North Pole, then to Alaska and back to the base.
During the exercise, strategic bombers spent 20 hours in the air without landing, carried out 26 refueling in the air using 15 flying tankers KS-135 and 10 KS-10.

[Stirbjorn]

Quote: ZEMCH

))) before we taught geography poorly, now, apparently, it is very bad)))

It's not me with geography that's bad, but yours with understanding or reading the text I wrote

It is necessary to determine the capabilities of the potential enemy and counter him.

[CommanderDIVA]

A very weak article, a set of compiled pieces from media publications, the author unfortunately did not give his conclusions, the most important question has not been disclosed: who and by what forces will take the Northern Sea Route away from us?

[timokhin-aa]

They will not take away, they will destroy without taking away.

[Alien From]

Icebreakers fit to arm.

[An64]

How can you talk about some kind of security without making a slightest assessment of the enemy? From whom and from what should he be protected? What is the balance of power in the theater?

[An64]

And what kind of USC Sever, allegedly created in 2014? Even Wikipedia "says" that the Northern Fleet OSK has been created, which is sometimes also called the Arktika OSK ...

[Bez 310]

"How protected is the Northern Sea Route", and even "militarily" ...
Such a powerful headline that you want to drop everything and run to defend it
northern sea route. One thing stops - no one attacks the NSR,
and doesn't even plan. In general, this SMP is not needed by anyone, only we ourselves
We persuade ourselves that this way to transport all goods faster and cheaper.
But this is not so ...

[timokhin-aa]

In all fairness, this is the most important communication, cut it off and the whole country will fall off from the Kolyma and further to the east. And a couple of submarines can cut it.

[Bez 310]

Quote: timokhin-aa

And a couple of submarines can cut it.

This is a very interesting question ...
The fact is that I do not see the development of PLO in this area.

[timokhin-aa]

Duc how will you see him if he is not there?

[Bez 310]

Quote: timokhin-aa

if it's not there?

Hence the question - why?
Perhaps we don't know everything?

[timokhin-aa]

I don't understand either.

[ZEMCH]

We practically do not have an aircraft carrier fleet. One of our aircraft carriers is almost constantly under repair

Do possible aggressors have a carrier fleet capable of operating on the NSR?
Imagine the AUG going in line behind the icebreaker))) without the ability to maneuver)))
The task is to protect the bases, ships sailing along the NSR from enemy submarines and Naval Aviation. What we are doing now. Yes, with PLO ships capable of operating in the Arctic tensely, but not solvable)))
The body of the MiG-31 is 50% steel, the fatigue changes in steel on the time scale are much smaller than that of aluminum alloys. The cab lantern is engaged and the problem is solved

[eklmn]

In general, the economic aspect of the NSR is also interesting. For some reason, no one asks the question “how much did Russia earn from the NSR?” After all, the NSR is shorter than through Suez, and there are no people who want to, except for the Chinese!
Here are some facts for those countries that wanted to take advantage of the Russian NSR.
1) Tax per passage. Although all ships can pass 24 miles from the coastline free of charge (international waters), Russia takes a tribute, as if it was spent on "melting ice".
2) Without a Russian pilot, ships cannot independently pass the NSR, and he, the pilot, is expensive.
3) and most importantly, Russia does not have logistics along the NSR. There are no ports, serious shipyards located often and in the right place, there are no tugboats, firefighters and much more ...
As a result, insurance of a ship along the NSR is much (many times!) More expensive than through Suez. The Chinese can flirt with Russia and pay her grandmothers for the passage (scratching the dog behind the ears, she can wag her tail at the right time), but seriously - this route is still unprofitable.

[stalkerwalker]

Quote: eklmn

Russia takes tribute, as if it was spent on “melting ice

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of "icebreaking support"? Do not confuse the southern coast of Crimea with the southern coast of the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea. There, clear water without floating ice occurs only with southerly winds from June to September. And then, not everywhere.,

Quote: eklmn

Russia does not have logistics along the NSR. There are no ports, serious shipyards located often and in the right place, there are no tugs, firefighters, and much more ...
As a result, the insurance of the ship along the NSR is much (many times!) More expensive than through the Suez

A perfect example when the question contains the answer ...

Quote: eklmn

The Chinese can flirt with Russia and pay her grandmother for the passage

Any wiring is paid. Not only along the NSR.

Quote: eklmn

After all, the NSR is shorter than through Suez, and there are no volunteers, except for the Chinese, a couple of pieces

What are you? Have Skomorokhov learned to "whistle on a blue eye"?
For the orphan and the poor, who bought an economist's diploma in an underground passage ...
The basis for calculating the payback of any vessel is the efficiency of its use, or how many days a year it was engaged in the carriage of cargo, and did not stand at the slop berth.
The Chinese and other ship owners drive ships along the NSR with goods from the Middle Kingdom to the ports of North-Western Europe and vice versa because it is economically profitable. Despite the high prices.
No shipowner will work at a loss ...

[eklmn]

Convinced! I threw out my degree in economics ...!

[stalkerwalker]

Buy a better 2-class sailor crust.
My lowest paid sailor on board gets 65 thousand a month. On average per year.

[Bez 310]

Quote: stalkerwalker

The Chinese and other ship owners drive ships along the NSR with goods from the Middle Kingdom to the ports of North-Western Europe and vice versa because it is economically profitable. Despite the high prices.
No shipowner will work at a loss ...

No, it’s not profitable, and there’s almost no one on the NSR except us and the Chinese.
We have nowhere to go, the Arctic is part of our country, and the Chinese are coming
on costs in order to gain a foothold in the Arctic, have a reserve
sea ​​outlet to the rest of the world.

[stalkerwalker]

Quote: Bez 310

No, it is not profitable, and there is almost no one on the NSR except us and the Chinese

Have you just come out of a lethargic dream?
Or have you heard anything about the sanctions?

[Bez 310]

Don't discuss the commentator, discuss the comment.
Specifically, briefly, on the case. Hints, slogans, omissions are not
are needed.

[stalkerwalker]

So read above. Carefully ..

[Bez 310]

I realized it didn't work out for us ...

[K298rtm]

1. The author outlined the topic of protecting the NSR, but immediately moved to a higher step - protecting the northern borders of the Russian Federation.
2. The author has partially listed what is at the disposal of the Federation Council.
3. There are practically no real threats (specifically for the NSR and for the Russian Federation as a whole) from this direction. And until the real threats in the present and the future have not been identified, it cannot be said about the sufficiency or insufficiency of the efforts being made (I think so).

[Dikson]

Just then one of the states announced that the Taimyr Peninsula is NATO's northern border .. So there is no need to relax at all .. The enemy's lack of an icebreaker fleet is a matter of time and desire .. They already have a program for building icebreakers .. And build themselves will be, and the Finns will help them .. Considering the enemy's gigantic superiority in nuclear submarines, airfields in the Arctic may not help us ..
Our antisubmarine aviation - the cat cried .. And in the Arctic conditions, all activities also depend on the weather .. What is the use of sitting somewhere in Alykeli Migov, if they can not take off for a week because of the wind and snow?