Military Review

War in Karabakh. It's been a long time since two in a fight

55
War in Karabakh. It's been a long time since two in a fight

Tehran and Tbilisi are other intermediaries



The Iranian and Georgian authorities offered their mediation to establish a dialogue between Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. This was done on September 27 and 30, respectively, when it seemed that things might not come to a big war.

This option today is almost the only one in order to prevent a new local war here from escalating into a multilateral military conflict. The long-term confrontation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides is a direct and obvious consequence of the geopolitical duplicity of the powers that have taken up the settlement of the conflict.

In this regard, the statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on September 27 is typical:

We call on the parties to immediately end hostilities and to engage in dialogue to resolve contentious issues. Our neighbors are our priority and we are ready to offer the services of an intermediary to make negotiations possible. Our common region needs peace.

Following Tehran, Georgia offered its mediation services. As its Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia stated on September 30,

further escalation of the situation will have an extremely negative impact on the security of the entire region. Georgia has good neighborly relations with both countries. Establishing peace meets common interests, and we are ready to organize, through our mediation, a dialogue between representatives of the conflicting parties in Georgia.

But will Baku and Yerevan heed Tehran's and Tbilisi's call? Will the "OSCE powers" not obstruct the mediation of Iran and Georgia? It is worth recalling that with the mediation of the leadership of the Georgian SSR, by the end of the 1920s, the status of some regions of the Armenian-Azerbaijani borderlands was regulated.

Where is the OSCE?


The current events in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict are taking place under the conditions of the permanent presence of Turkish troops in the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan. There, just 30-40 km from Yerevan, we are talking about a significant group of military advisers to Turkey.

But today we have to talk about the complete political impotence of the so-called OSCE format, established by the same powers that stubbornly ignore Turkey's involvement in the conflict on the side of Baku.

In this context, understandable are both the Turkish President Erdogan's recently announced demand for Armenia "to immediately end the occupation of the territory of Azerbaijan," and the unbridled anti-Armenian propaganda in Turkey and Azerbaijan.

In fact, there is a deliberate provocation of the involvement of Armenia itself in the conflict. Moreover, Russia is being pushed with all its might to military intervention in it, referring to the Russian-Armenian agreement on mutual military assistance (1997) and the joint participation of Russia and Armenia in the CSTO ("Armenia against Azerbaijan: balance of forces").

These events again show that the notorious OSCE format is not only untenable as a force capable of resolving the conflict; it is, in fact, a screen for its escalation. Moreover, Turkey, which seems to be participating in that format, officially supports Azerbaijan in any difficult situations along the entire line of its military contact with Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh ("If not for Karabakh").


Turkey's willfulness in the OSCE format allows it to use Azerbaijan in every possible way to put pressure on Armenia and in general to create an anti-Russian military-political alliance Ankara-Baku.

The so-called OSCE format has become something of a direct analogue of the notorious Committee on Non-Interference in Spanish Affairs, under the cover of which not only the fascist, but also the Western powers, providing all kinds of assistance to the Francoists in 1936-1938, brought them to power in 1939 ...

And, recall, if not for the courage of miniature Andorra, which allowed the evacuation of the Republicans, their families and refugees, incl. according to Andorran passports, new thousands, if not tens of thousands of Spaniards would have been repressed by the "winners". Even in spite of F. Franco's decision (March 1939) not to block Andorra ...

An anti-Russian alliance?


The recent military maneuvers of Turkey and Azerbaijan not far from Yerevan (in the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan) clearly showed Ankara's readiness to directly intervene in the conflict. But the CSTO did not even express concern about such a provocative geography of those maneuvers, and this all the more freed the hands of the initiators of a new military clash.

In addition, Russia, together with Belarus as members of the CSTO and the EAEU, along with Armenia, quite officially supply large amounts of weapons to Azerbaijan, which is regarded there and in Ankara as a "signal" for further military-political pressure on Armenia.


It is not for nothing that I. Aliyev himself expresses gratitude for these deliveries at press conferences with V. Putin and A. Lukashenko, which naturally causes a negative reaction in Armenia. However, does such a pragmatic policy of Moscow and Minsk meet the geopolitical interests of the CSTO and the EAEU, and also the military-political security of Russia?

At the same time, related questions arise: why is not an embargo on arms supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan imposed on behalf of the UN or the OSCE format, why is there no resistance to Turkish intervention in the conflict, why neighboring Georgia and Iran are not involved in the same format?

Apparently, because the Jesuit geopolitical game continues in the literal sense around the South Transcaucasia and in this region itself. And chestnuts from the fire for the main "scriptwriters" of this game, in the figurative expression of I. Stalin, are dragged by the peoples of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Plus, the socio-economic and subsequent domestic political consequences of the fall in oil revenues, Azerbaijan's main export revenues, due to the fall in world oil prices, force the authorities to militarize the country and, of course, propaganda.

Compatriots are straightforwardly aiming at the long-awaited "revenge" in relation to Armenia. Moreover, Azerbaijan's opportunities for financial support of the armed forces are much more significant than that of Armenia.

So will there be a big war?


Everyone now understands Russia's dependence on the position that Turkey will take in Syria, as well as its dependence on Ankara's policy with respect to the notorious Turkish Stream gas pipeline.


With the growing political obstruction of Nord Stream 2 by the West, it only grows. All this forces Moscow not to rush with public guarantees of Armenia's military security.

In addition, the long-standing, since 1993, transport blockade of Armenia by Turkey has not yet received a proper official assessment from Russia, as well as the CSTO and the EAEU. Let us note that this is happening against the background of, shall we say, the deliberately official military-political support of Azerbaijan by Turkey.

In turn, this only strengthens the political orientation of Armenia towards the West. With the development of the aforementioned scenario, it may well happen that the situation with Nagorno-Karabakh in favor of Azerbaijan will be resolved in the way that Donald Trump recently did with respect to the Serbian-Kosovo conflict.

Let us remind you that it all boiled down to the forcible coercion of Serbia to indefinitely renounce its claims to Kosovo, torn away from it by the West and Turkey, and to the settlement of the conflict on "American-Kosovo" terms ("Who can now be frightened by the ghost of Great Serbia").

However, in terms of political geography, at least the initial stage of settlement is hardly possible if Yerevan and Stepanakert controlled by it do not offer the return of a number of Azerbaijani regions near Nagorno-Karabakh to Baku. With the simultaneous lifting of the transport and economic blockade of the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan, which is inside Armenia.

Such a scenario, just with the mediation of the OSCE or Georgia and Iran, will certainly contribute to ending the Turkish transport blockade of Armenia. This, in turn, could significantly reduce the role of the Turkish factor in the conflict.

With such a political and geographic "denouement", its final settlement will be a purely bilateral prerogative, the Armenian-Azerbaijani one.

It is obvious that any uncompromising scenarios in this region, as shown by past and especially current events there, are capable of causing precisely a multilateral military-political conflict.
Author:
Photos used:
theconversation.com, i.etimg.com, dtx.gov.az
55 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 7 October 2020 10: 09
    +1
    Do the parties want to reach a compromise and resolve the conflict peacefully?
    1. U-Gin78
      U-Gin78 7 October 2020 10: 14
      +4
      Turkey is not particularly, although it is not a direct party to the conflict, they would like to annex Azerbaijan for this case
      1. iomoe
        iomoe 7 October 2020 11: 31
        -2
        Where do these fantasies come from?
    2. Insurgent
      Insurgent 7 October 2020 10: 17
      12
      War in Karabakh. It's been a long time since two in a fight





      Kurdish resource Rojava Network talks about Syrian militants in Azerbaijan, relying on pro-Turkish sources:

      1. Arrival in the Azerbaijani territories of a number of leaders of the groups supported by Turkey. Leaders include: Saif Abu Bakr, leader of the Hamza Division terrorists and Fahim Issa, commander of the Sultan Murad Division.
      2. The commanders passed orders to Turkish intelligence, checking the phones of operatives and preventing them from communicating with the agencies or filming videos, which is a red line for Turkey.
      3. Accordingly, cell phones belonging to Syrian fighters will be confiscated with more scrutiny, provided that they are allowed to wear them and communicate with their families every two or three days for a limited period.
      4. Turkish intelligence raided and arrested a number of members of the "Hamza division" who were taking selfies on one of the fronts in Azerbaijan and took them away in an unknown direction.
      5. Turkish intelligence requested the deployment of 1300 Syrian mercenaries, 300 of whom were deployed to Azerbaijan.
      6. It is worth noting that most of the Syrian mercenaries in Azerbaijani territories are rebelling to return to Syria because of the severity of the fighting.
      7. A human rights organization from Afrin: A mass escape has taken place in the recruiting camps for Azerbaijan in the Jinderes region of the occupied Afrin countryside. Dozens of Syrian mercenaries fled. (Also a Turkish officer was killed there yesterday).
      1. smart fellow
        smart fellow 7 October 2020 11: 53
        +1
        In fairness, it should have been said about the Kurdish militants from Syria and Iraq. In Turkey, they are recognized as terrorists. The Greeks are also on the side of the Armenians - in one of the stories on Russian television, 50 Greek Armenians and 30 Greeks went to fight the Azerbaijanis.
        Count more Ukrainians who said they would send military equipment with personnel to help Azerbaijan. These are only those who are directly ready to participate in the conflict.
        1. Grits
          Grits 8 October 2020 12: 05
          0
          Quote: smart fellow
          The Greeks are also on the side of the Armenians - in one of the stories on Russian television, 50 Greek Armenians and 30 Greeks went to fight the Azerbaijanis.

          Are the Greeks also terrorists, like the pro-Turkish ISIS fighters?
          1. smart fellow
            smart fellow 8 October 2020 14: 15
            0
            The Greeks are not officially. Kurds officially yes.
          2. smart fellow
            smart fellow 8 October 2020 14: 43
            0
            By the way, are the pro-Turkish militants from ISIS? Offhand from the Internet: Pro-Turkish militants hit the ISIS cauldron on the Syrian border https://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mire/content/201605300333-kecq.htm
            Kurds from the PKK, whose militants carried out terrorist attacks in Turkey and abroad. Therefore, Turkey officially recognizes them as terrorists.
            Don't think in cliches. Check yourself by answering the question: who overthrew the tsar in Russia.
    3. Nasrat
      Nasrat 7 October 2020 10: 19
      +7
      I am sure that before starting the operation in NK, Aliyev "ventilated" the issue with Moscow ... And the fact that Moscow makes only general statements speaks in favor of this opinion .. Perhaps there is some time frame, but "good" from Moscow Aliyev clearly has ... The question was not resolved for decades when that knot should be untied ...
      1. Flamberg
        Flamberg 7 October 2020 10: 23
        +1
        +1
        Demonstrative flogging of Armenians.

        PS Here it is worth adding the classic - Well sonnko helped you NATO ???
        1. The eye of the crying
          The eye of the crying 7 October 2020 11: 24
          +1
          Quote: Flamberg
          Here it is worth adding the classic - Well sonnko helped you NATO ???


          Armenia is a member of the CSTO, not NATO.
          1. Alex Nevs
            Alex Nevs 7 October 2020 11: 37
            0
            It's like it says on the barn, but there ...
            1. The eye of the crying
              The eye of the crying 7 October 2020 11: 40
              -2
              You have a funny opinion about the value of the CSTO.
              1. Interlocutor
                Interlocutor 7 October 2020 14: 21
                +3
                Your funny opinion about the value of the CSTO

                Stop talking nonsense ... CSTO, NATO. They fight for someone only when it is profitable. They are friends in peacetime with those who are close and strong in the region ...
                1. The eye of the crying
                  The eye of the crying 7 October 2020 14: 34
                  -3
                  Quote: Interlocutor
                  Stop talking nonsense ...


                  Tell this to someone who believes that NATO should help Armenia.

                  Quote: Interlocutor
                  Fight for someone only when it is profitable


                  Stop carrying platitudes.
          2. Grits
            Grits 8 October 2020 12: 06
            0
            Quote: Eye of the Crying
            Armenia is a member of the CSTO, not NATO.

            judging by the above photo - quite the opposite ...
            1. The eye of the crying
              The eye of the crying 8 October 2020 12: 17
              0
              Quote: Gritsa
              judging by the above photo - quite the opposite ...


              What kind of photo is the handshake of two soldiers against the background of the flags of Turkey and Azerbaijan? Do you think one of the soldiers is Armenian? Or does it in some other way speak of Armenia's membership in NATO?
              1. Grits
                Grits 8 October 2020 14: 23
                0
                Quote: Eye of the Crying
                Which photo

                Where the Armenian flag is on a par with all NATO
                1. The eye of the crying
                  The eye of the crying 8 October 2020 20: 34
                  0
                  It is on a par with the flags of the countries participating in the joint exercises. Once upon a time Russia also did so.
      2. svoit
        svoit 7 October 2020 11: 40
        0
        But unfortunately, none of the parties, for 30 years, has offered solutions, although if you strain your imagination, you can come up with something, the problem is that the Nycists of both countries still occupy strong positions
      3. evgen1221
        evgen1221 7 October 2020 12: 10
        +3
        And it seems to me that nothing depends on the opinion of Moscow at all, and everyone in the district has been putting on these councils for a long time and seriously, doing as it is profitable for themselves.
        1. icant007
          icant007 7 October 2020 21: 06
          +1
          Quote: evgen1221
          And it seems to me that nothing depends on the opinion of Moscow at all, and everyone in the district has been putting on these councils for a long time and seriously, doing as it is profitable for themselves.


          I think, at least, Baku informed Moscow in advance.
          As a maximum, there were military-political consultations, during which Aliyev assured the Kremlin that the combat zone would not extend beyond Karabakh.

          But Yerevan will certainly try to provoke Azerbaijan to strike directly on the territory of Armenia.
    4. novel66
      novel66 7 October 2020 10: 52
      +2
      there is no compromise when there is a disputed land, you can only capture or hold by force
    5. paul3390
      paul3390 7 October 2020 11: 13
      +4
      What is compromise? This means that both sides must sacrifice something. Territories. And no one will do this without a military defeat. So - as long as there is something to smack any world will not. The stake is too high for both.
      1. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 7 October 2020 13: 40
        +2
        Quote: paul3390
        What is compromise? This means that both sides must sacrifice something. Territories. And no one will do this without a military defeat. So - as long as there is something to smack any world will not. The stake is too high for both.

        The problem is that in the case of the surrender of those regions that Azerbaijan demands to be liberated, Nagorno-Karabakh will be cut off from the outside world and in fact will be a closed enclave, or reservation. The compromise is that Azerbaijan would not lay claim to the road that connects Karabakh with Armenia, without which this unrecognized republic is not viable. If this agreement is reached, then the shooting will come to a minimum, because both sides seem to have solved their problems. The question is, for how long?
    6. skullcap
      skullcap 7 October 2020 22: 27
      0
      The course of action suggests that both sides of the conflict are working towards one goal: to draw Russia directly into the conflict.
      At the same time, Turkey, through Azerbaijan, wants to get forgiveness from NATO for its outbursts, and Pashinyan and his accomplices are working out Soros's maintenance. When he completes his assignment, he will fade to the West, and Russian guys in army uniforms will clean up the bloody mess together with the Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
  2. U-Gin78
    U-Gin78 7 October 2020 10: 12
    0
    Involvement of Iran in this event, in theory, should slow down Turkish enthusiasm
    1. novel66
      novel66 7 October 2020 10: 51
      0
      a question! both Turks and Azerbaijanis and Iranians are Muslims, and Armenians are Christians
      1. paul3390
        paul3390 7 October 2020 11: 15
        +6
        Turks are Sunnis, and Azerbaijanis, like Iranians, for the most part, are still Shiites. And this is an important factor.
        1. novel66
          novel66 7 October 2020 11: 16
          +1
          maybe ... but the war is still going on
      2. smart fellow
        smart fellow 7 October 2020 11: 58
        -2
        Azerbaijanis are supported by Ukraine, Serbia, Belarus. Moreover, Ukraine is ready to participate in hostilities.
        Iran supports Armenia.
      3. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 7 October 2020 13: 25
        +2
        Quote: novel xnumx
        a question! both Turks and Azerbaijanis and Iranians are Muslims, and Armenians are Christians

        In general, Iran does not really like the idea of ​​strengthening Turkey's positions near its side and in the zone of its interests, and therefore the issue of religion is not a priority in this case.
    2. Krasnodar
      Krasnodar 7 October 2020 11: 34
      -1
      Iran is weaker than Turkey militarily and economically. He will definitely not slow them down.
      1. aslanxnumx
        aslanxnumx 7 October 2020 15: 54
        0
        As they say, options are possible. Your opinion is speculative. In fact, the Azerbaijanis of Iran are a single people with the Azerbaijanis of the AR, not the Turks, and they are no less militant in history than the Turks.
        In general, the attitude to this conflict on a religious basis is wrong - it was the secularism of the Turks that forced our Azerbaijanis to prefer Turkey to Iran. In the future, Tabriz may become the capital of the united Azerbaijan.
    3. U-Gin78
      U-Gin78 7 October 2020 11: 57
      0
      Now it turns out "should have", how cleverly they manage to change shoes
  3. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 7 October 2020 10: 17
    +4
    The West and the OSCE pretend that they do not see what Turkey is doing, as well as what Ukraine is doing in the Lao PDR.
    It all depends on the opinion of the Big Boss, but now he has all his worries through the roof.
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 7 October 2020 10: 30
      +1
      Quote: tihonmarine
      The West and the OSCE pretend that they see nothing what Turkey is doing, as well as what Ukraine is doing in the Lao PDR

      Yes, they see everything ...
      Yesterday on British TV on the central channel BBC One, Nikolka Pashinyan demonstrated his neglected teeth (sorry for the off-top), giving an interview to a journalist from a British corporation.
      The meaning was clear and understandable, and somewhat similar to the speech of the clown from the 95th quarter at the UN General Assembly. That, they say, they attacked when we lived a peaceful life, and did not touch anyone.
      1. iouris
        iouris 7 October 2020 10: 43
        -3
        This region is a zone of permanent imperial interests .... (you won't believe) Great Britain. The Englishwoman fights back in all directions at once: Belarus - "newbie" - Caucasus - Central Asia. In Kyrgiztan, nekty seized an enterprise producing ... gold!
      2. Livonetc
        Livonetc 7 October 2020 10: 45
        11
        Why discuss a mythical international settlement.
        How many years already part of Cyprus has been occupied by Turkey.
        And Turkey did not have any serious problems on this topic.
        The era of the exclusive right of the strong has come.
        1. iouris
          iouris 7 October 2020 11: 28
          +1
          Quote: Livonetc
          The era of the exclusive right of the strong has come.

          Yes, it has always been so, therefore it was in the era of "new thinking" that we were robbed.
  4. 7,62h54
    7,62h54 7 October 2020 10: 57
    +1
    Iran spoke for the return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Armenians have no one to look back at anymore.
  5. maktub
    maktub 7 October 2020 11: 02
    -2
    Pashinyan said that Yerevan is ready to make concessions in the Karabakh conflict if Azerbaijan is ready for this TASS
  6. nobody75
    nobody75 7 October 2020 11: 43
    +4
    Excuse me, does anyone know what happened to Martakert?

    Was it taken or bypassed?
    How was the Terter gorge passed and why did the Armenians not take it under fire control?
    There is also no information on the use of corrected mines and shells by the defending side.
    Why is "Gran" and "Krasnopol" not used?
    What's going on with Centimeter?
    I remember it was used well in Afghanistan ...
    1. Aviator_
      Aviator_ 7 October 2020 19: 13
      +1
      There is also no information on the use of corrected mines and shells by the defending side.
      Why is "Gran" and "Krasnopol" not used?
      What's going on with Centimeter?

      Probably, the qualifications of the operators do not allow using them.
      1. nobody75
        nobody75 7 October 2020 19: 20
        +2
        You are most likely right ... I hope our charter drafters will take this point into account ...
        Have you heard anything about the situation in the south of NKR? According to Pegov, there is a boiler in Rusvesna ...
        Sincerely
        1. nobody75
          nobody75 7 October 2020 19: 44
          +1
          Pashinyan's statement:
          If we take into account the information that comes today from early morning, we can say that the idea of ​​the Karabakh commanders worked - they took tactical steps in the south, left the corridor and lured the military corps of Azerbaijan there.

          Further, I quote from lenta.ru:
          Pashinyan said that the plan of the NKR Defense Army was to withdraw on the line of the city of Jebrail and lure large forces of the Azerbaijani military there. "Last night they entered there in large, very large forces, and this morning a crushing blow has been directed at them, and the operation is proceeding extremely successfully."

          And I wrote that the defenders are forcing the attackers to storm the fortifications in the sequence that suits them. And the Azarbaydzhanians go where they were going to be allowed!
          However, there is no confirmation yet and there is nothing to disassemble on the map.
          Sincerely
          1. Aviator_
            Aviator_ 7 October 2020 19: 57
            0
            I knew nothing about this episode. However, the fact that immature Syrian "refugees" under the leadership of Turkish officers are fighting on the side of Azerbaijan speaks volumes. This material was seen by blogger colonel cassad, he is a very serious man.
            1. nobody75
              nobody75 7 October 2020 21: 17
              +2
              Yes, I read the same about it. I think the "refugees" were put on the mines ... We didn’t do without the "serpent gorynych". I read on the CNN website that the 200s began to return to Syria ... And the cries of local revolutionaries that they were promised $ 1500 a month for guard duty.
              Sincerely
            2. nobody75
              nobody75 7 October 2020 21: 26
              0
              https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com
              Released a review for today.
              As we are waiting for confirmation
              Sincerely
  7. Livonetc
    Livonetc 7 October 2020 12: 20
    +2
    "Azerbaijani soldier in the yard of his house, where he has not been for 30 years"

    From the resource Colonel Kassad
    1. Krasnodar
      Krasnodar 7 October 2020 13: 39
      +1
      Touching
  8. Pavlos Melas
    Pavlos Melas 7 October 2020 20: 11
    0
    It is unlikely that a compromise is possible now. If the Azeri get bogged down then negotiations may begin. As for the Russian position, we will see it in fact. If this autumn confrontation began without the knowledge of Moscow, then the response should simply take place.
  9. certero
    certero 8 October 2020 00: 22
    -1
    Quote: evgen1221
    nothing depends on Moscow's opinion

    Moscow can solve the problem of those who think that nothing depends on its opinion in a couple of days.
  10. tolmachiev51
    tolmachiev51 8 October 2020 04: 22
    0
    The Foreign Ministry should work in all directions, and not "express" concern. We sank everything we could.
  11. Sancho_SP
    Sancho_SP 8 October 2020 09: 29
    0
    In my opinion, we are confusing cause and effect here.

    Russia de facto allowed (did not forbid) Azerbaijan to attack precisely because the Armenian desire to sit on two or more chairs at the same time led Armenia to completely open Russophobia.

    At the same time, Karabakh is not even recognized by Armenia, and Russia does not even have a reason to interfere there.

    At the same time, Azerbaijan is generally of Russia shit not much more than other former Soviet republics and some kind of special hatred, if we discard everyday racism, does not appeal. On the contrary, he even buys tanks.