I study the opinions of our readers on issues related to the war in Karabakh and related topics, and I understand how difficult it is for our diplomats to work in all these contact groups, how difficult it is for the president to talk at the summits of heads of state, how difficult it is to come to a consensus.
The Kremlin calls for compliance with laws and treaties and acting in compliance with these documents. The White House talks about its strength weapons and the power of their economy as a foundation to live the way they want. The French leader manipulates the words about legality and boundaries, interpreting them differently each time, depending on his interests. Erdogan acts approximately according to the principle "what is the law, what are the boundaries, if there are our people, our fellow believers?"
And everyone argues aggressively, categorically, with insults to each other and complete disregard for facts. Nevertheless, today I will again return to the NKR issue, but this time as a lesson for other post-Soviet states.
Will be back just to mix the concrete for our positions. I will come back, because I see that in the course of the discussions there are often points of contact. If not a single point of view is being developed, but a single direction of thinking, a single vector of thought development. And is it important.
Unrecognized NCR as a battlefield
The legality of the NKR has not yet been confirmed by anyone. The republic is really not recognized and legally continues to be the territory of Azerbaijan. In fact, during the existence of independent Armenia and Azerbaijan, the ethnic composition of the republic has radically changed, today it is clearly pro-Armenian territory. But the war on the territory of the "security zone" and the NKR is a de jure war on the territory of Azerbaijan.
Many supporters of Armenia today are asking a question about the CSTO agreement. Why is Russia in no hurry to fulfill the treaty? Why are there no Russian troops in the combat zone? They ask a question knowing the answer perfectly well. A treaty comes into force when another state attacks a party to the treaty. Incidentally, for the same reasons, NATO did not stand up for the Turks after the incident with the downed Russian plane.
At the same time, we perfectly understand the feelings of the Armenians, their desire to win this war. More precisely, this is not a desire to win, everything is much deeper here. It is rather a desire to survive. You personally will not survive, the whole people will not survive. Armenians remember very well the events of the recent historical past. And all the talk about the 21st century as a civilized time is completely killed by the events in Sumgait in 1988.
The war today became the result of the multi-vector policy that Armenia began to pursue with the coming to power of the new government. Small states striving for friendship with all at once, ultimately lose the support of all. Armenia went to this for two years, but, fortunately, did not manage to leave the CSTO. This allows us, Russia, today to have every reason to enter the war in the event of the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Armenia.
Azerbaijan's position looks better from a legal point of view. But there are pitfalls here too. It is clear that Baku's confidence in victory is based not only on military and economic superiority, but also on the hope for Turkey's help. Azerbaijani troops can take NKR. But what's next? Where will the army of this republic go? Wouldn't the same thing happen to the military in Iraq, for example?
Help from the Turks? Turkey is a NATO member country. Which member, good or bad, doesn't matter. The appearance of Turkish soldiers in the ranks of the Azerbaijani army can be regarded as an attack on a CSTO member country. Accordingly, Russia gets the right to strike at the enemy of Armenia. CSTO against NATO ... Direct path to world war.
By the way, judging by the statement of our Foreign Ministry made yesterday by Maria Zakharova, we already have facts of recruiting Syrian militants to participate in the war in the NKR. It is clear that such statements are not made just like that.
How the war affected relations with the LPR and with Belarus
The Armenian-Azerbaijani war distracted us from other wars. Less bloody, but wars. I mean Belarus and the republics of Donbass. On the one hand, this is understandable. In Belarus, it seems, Lukashenka won, the opposition creeps into neighboring countries and hisses from there. There seems to be a truce in Donbas too. There are no active hostilities.
On the other hand, Belarus continues to be shaken by protest marches, the LDNR has been in limbo and has remained. There is no victory either there or there. The war has just entered another phase of the truce. It is not over. And all this can "jerk" at any moment and not at our will. We are not in control of the situation, by and large.
It seems to me that Armenia's problems associated with a multi-vector policy should finally open the eyes of President Lukashenko to the current practice of international relations. You can't be good to everyone at once. The world is therefore multipolar because there are several centers of attraction in it. And small countries, whether they want it or not, have to choose this very center for themselves. The alternative is disappearing from the political map of the world.
But Lukashenka is silent. Is silent on the most important issues. He is silent about the prospects of the union state. He is silent about the timing of political reform. Is silent on the election law. He is silent about the creation of political parties. To put it mildly, the position is strange. Again the Soviet approach? Let's gather representatives of labor collectives and decide everything? Collect the best of the best?
What's the worst? Does anyone care about their opinion? Or the popular in Ukraine "suitcase, train station, Russia (Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Germany, etc.)"? A referendum on the future fate of the state will be ... Of course, there will be. Only in what century, in what country, under what president? Was it not early that Alexander Grigorievich sat down on the winner's laurel wreath?
Didn't we calm down early? If the problem is not talked about, then the problem disappears? Alas, it does not disappear, but becomes deeper. Why are there no statements about the union state from our president? All these "we are developing, deepening cooperation, creating joint projects" and so on do not suit us either.
The situation is exactly the same with the republics of Donbass. I am ashamed to read Ukrainian media reports about problems, for example, in Donetsk hospitals. I understand that we now have enough such problems in Russia too. We are a big country, and problems will arise and be solved. But there shouldn't be such problems in Donbass! There is a war ...
It is clear that the issue of joining the LPNR to Russia is not on the agenda today. For many reasons, including the lack of consensus in the society itself there. But why is the question with passports being delayed? Why can't those who want to become Russians do it? Are we afraid of someone?
By the way, about joining. How easy it is for us to resolve such issues if they do not specifically concern us! And how difficult everything becomes if we find ourselves in such a situation. How many Crimean Ukrainians today cannot meet with their relatives from Ukraine? It doesn't matter who is preventing it. The result is important.
Donbass has always been one. Moving from one village to another in connection with a change of place of work was not considered something out of the ordinary. They worked where their profession was needed. Career growth has also contributed to this mobility. And at the time of the coup d'état, the relatives and friends of most of the indigenous people lived throughout the Donbass.
It seems to me that the issue of joining today is not on the agenda, and that is why. It is difficult not only to unite, but also to separate. It is impossible to artificially unite or separate the people. Watch video reports from Belarusian villages bordering on Lithuania, from Ukrainian villages and cities, where the border runs right through the streets. Listen to people. How much bitterness and pain there is ...
War tears away the veils
Many issues that seem insignificant to us in a peaceful life, with the advent of war, grow to the level of problems. Moreover, this phenomenon extends not only to the combat zone, but also to everyone who is somehow connected with this war.
The war in Karabakh is no exception. In a completely different, two-faced form, we saw, for example, Macron. We saw the results of the multi-vector policy. We saw the problems of states' defense capabilities. We see how fragile the world really is and how easily it turns into a bloody carnage. We have already seen a lot of things and will see more.
War removes the skin from life, leaving an open wound on everything and everyone.