Military Review

Armenia versus Azerbaijan: balance of forces

85

Armenian Tanks in action, september 2020


The events of recent days in Nagorno-Karabakh may have the most serious consequences. The observed limited conflict in the shortest possible time can develop into a full-scale war, incl. with the involvement of third countries. Azerbaijan and Armenia are already preparing for more active actions, carrying out mobilization and other measures. It is necessary to consider the strength and capabilities of participants in a possible war.

General questions


The National Army of Azerbaijan (NAA) is large enough and one of the strongest in the region. Thus, the Global Firepower rating puts it in 64th place in the world - significantly higher than its likely opponents. According to The Military Balance 2020, the total number of the NAA reaches almost 67 thousand people, most of whom serve in the ground forces. There is a reserve of up to 300 thousand people. The NAA includes ground forces, air force and naval forces, but the latter can not be considered in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The armed forces of Armenia are less numerous, and their potential is estimated lower. TMB reports about 45 thousand troops and 210 thousand reserve. Global Firepower ranks Armenia 111th out of 138 in the world. Due to its geographical location, the Armenian army includes only ground troops, air forces and air defense troops.


NAA tanks on exercises

It is also necessary to consider the defense potential of the unrecognized NKR, which actively cooperates with Armenia. Up to 20 thousand people serve in the NKR Defense Army. with a reserve of up to 90-100 thousand. According to known data, military construction in the republic is carried out with the direct support of Yerevan. Assistance is provided with the solution of organizational issues, with the training of personnel, with equipment, etc. The specificity of the situation is such that in a number of situations it is impossible to determine which part of the military potential belongs directly to the NKR and which is provided by friendly Armenia.

It should be noted that the numerical indicators of the three armies are now quite difficult to track. The reference books provide data as of the beginning of the year, but in the last days the parties to the conflict managed to suffer significant losses. At the same time, there is still no exact data on the killed soldiers and destroyed equipment.

Land forces of Azerbaijan


The ground forces of Azerbaijan include 5 corps, between which 23 motorized rifle brigades are distributed. In the latter, there are infantry and tank battalions, as well as support units. There are two separate artillery brigades equipped with barrel and rocket systems, an engineering brigade and several other formations.


Azerbaijani motorized infantry on maneuvers

According to TMB, at the beginning of this year, the NAA had 439 tanks, the basis of this grouping were T-72 of various modifications (more than 240 units) and T-90S (100 units). Motorized infantry uses more than 780 armored vehicles of various types. There are both old samples of Soviet production and new imported equipment. To combat enemy tanks, 10 self-propelled ATGM "Chrysanthemum" are intended; there is a large number of portable anti-tank systems.

The NAA has a fairly high missile and artillery potential. There are 12 self-propelled guns 2S7 "Pion" with 203-mm guns. Also in operation there are more than 35 self-propelled guns of 152 or 155 mm of several types. The most massive self-propelled gun among the troops is the 2S1 "Carnation" - 44 units. There are 36 CJSC "Nona" and "Vienna". Towed artillery includes more than 200 units. weapons with caliber up to 152 mm. The rocket artillery contains almost 150 units. MLRS of different types. There are both old Soviet "Grads" of 122 mm caliber, and modern 300-mm systems of foreign production.

Azerbaijan is armed with operational-tactical missile systems. These are four "Tochka-U" and two LORA products made in Israel. With their help, it is possible to defeat targets at a great depth of defense.


"Tochka-U" of the Armenian army

Military air defense as part of the NAA is being built on the basis of Soviet and Russian-made complexes, mainly of old types. There are samples of different classes, from portable to medium-range air defense systems. Also in service are the ZU-23-2 / 4 towed and self-propelled installations.

Armenian army


The ground forces of Armenia have 5 combined-arms corps, including infantry, tank, artillery, anti-aircraft and other units. There are also two separate artillery brigades, an engineer regiment, etc.

The main striking force of the army is tank units, which have more than 100 armored vehicles of several types. This is mainly T-72A / B. The fleet of infantry armored vehicles includes 360 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles of Soviet production. There is an unknown number of MT-LB transporters, BRDM-2 armored vehicles, engineering vehicles of several types, etc. More than 20 self-propelled ATGMs "Kornet", "Konkurs" and "Shturm" are used.

Self-propelled barrel artillery includes approx. 30 units equipment, mainly ACS 2S3 "Akatsia" 152 mm caliber. Towed artillery - more than 130 guns of several types. In rocket artillery, 60 systems of three types are involved; the most powerful samples - 6 units. 9K58 "Smerch".


ACS "Msta-S" of the Azerbaijani army

The Rocket Forces also have 16 OTRKs. This is up to 8 complexes "Elbrus", 4 "Tochki-U" and 4 "Iskander-M". These OTRKs differ in their characteristics and capabilities, but their joint operation provides a certain flexibility of use.

The air defense of the ground forces was built using old and new models of Soviet and Russian production. There are MANPADS "Igla" and "Verba", various short and medium-range systems such as "Osa", "Cub", etc. Such rarities as the S-75 and S-125 remain in service.

Air warfare


The NAA Air Force has only one squadron of MiG-29 fighters (15 units) and one bomber and assault regiment on the Su-24 and Su-25 (more than 20 units). Also, 26 MiG-24 transport and combat helicopters can be used to engage targets. 4. Support tasks are solved with the help of 20 military transport aircraft and 17 Mi-15 helicopters. There are XNUMX trainer aircraft.

Azerbaijan is trying to build an unmanned air fleet. To date, at least 16-18 imported UAVs of several types have been put into service, incl. products with a long flight duration and the ability to carry weapons.


Rare S-125 air defense system of the Armenian army

The Air Defense Forces operate the long-outdated S-75 and S-125 complexes, as well as the newer Buk-M1. The newest model in their armament is the S-300PM / PMU2 air defense system.

Last year, the Armenian Air Force received 4 Su-30SM fighters, and 8 more aircraft are expected in the near future. Tactical aviation also includes one squadron of 14 Su-25 attack aircraft. There are no more than 10-12 Mi-24 helicopters. Only 4 military transport aircraft are in operation, incl. 3 Il-76, as well as up to 20 helicopters. Educational units have 14 units. technology. Measures are being taken to build an air fleet UAVs - through the purchase of imported samples.

The strategic air defense of the Armenian armed forces is being built on the Soviet / Russian-made S-300PT and S-300PS complexes. There are no newer samples.

Numbers and potential


It is easy to see that the armed forces of Azerbaijan are superior to the army of Armenia in terms of quantity and quality. One of the main prerequisites for this is the difference in economic performance. Thus, Azerbaijan's GDP exceeds 47 billion US dollars, while in Armenia this figure does not even reach 13,5 billion. Due to this, Baku can allocate more than 2,8 billion for defense, while Yerevan has a military budget of only 1,38 USD billion


Azerbaijani fighters MiG-29

However, realizing the numerical and economic advantage is extremely difficult. In recent decades, the NKR, with the help of Armenia, has constantly been preparing to repel the attack of Azerbaijan and has built a fairly effective defense system. A breakthrough of such a defense can lead to serious losses of the attacking side, and at the same time to the waste of the main advantages in people and equipment.

NAA does not have an overwhelming and decisive superiority over the armies of Armenia and NKR. As a result, a full-scale conflict can quickly turn into a war of attrition - with low-intensity battles on the front line and with attempts to use long-range systems and complexes to destroy targets at great depths. In this case, the advantages of the countries over the enemy and the prospects for the development of events become dim.

Third parties may participate in a possible war. Turkey has already openly declared its readiness to support Azerbaijan. On the side of Armenia, according to various estimates, Iran and Russia can come out - although this possibility has not yet been confirmed by officials. One way or another, the participation of any foreign country can seriously change the balance of power and give one of the parties to the conflict serious advantages.


The newest Su-30SM of the Armenian Air Force

War or peace


The next stage of the armed confrontation in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic began several days ago, and over the past time, all sides have suffered significant losses. Despite all the intentions and actions, none of the parties to the conflict can count on a quick and decisive victory. On the contrary, there are risks of dragging out battles and / or involving third countries in the conflict - with obvious negative consequences.

The existing correlation of forces between Azerbaijan, Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is such that the continuation of the fighting will not be able to radically change the previously existing situation. Accordingly, the optimal solution is a ceasefire and a return to the peace process. Most likely, this will not allow countries to quickly get all the desired results, but it will prevent new senseless losses.
Author:
Photos used:
Ministry of Defense of Armenia, Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, Wikimedia Commons
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  1. NEXUS
    NEXUS 29 September 2020 17: 21 New
    -7
    The Armed Forces of Armenia are less numerous, and their potential is estimated lower. TMB reports about 45 thousand troops and 210 thousand reserve.

    Let's see who later has something more. If the Turks fit well, I am sure, and then the Kremlin will have its say.
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 29 September 2020 17: 41 New
      +7
      Tactical aviation also includes one squadron of 14 Su-25 attack aircraft.


      Left over "Baker's dozen" One Su-25 of Armenia was shot down presumably by the F-16 of the Turkish Air Force over the territory of the republic.
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 29 September 2020 18: 15 New
        +4
        Quote: Insurgent
        There remained "a damn dozen". One Su-25 of Armenia was shot down, presumably F - 16 of the Turkish Air Force over the territory of the republic.

        These are the old Soviet ones received through Georgia and Slovakia. How many of them are in airworthy condition is difficult to say, but judging by the fact that they are not used at the front in any way, and today they lost one in flight over their territory - a little.
      2. iouris
        iouris 29 September 2020 19: 49 New
        -3
        Quote: Insurgent
        One Su-25 of Armenia was shot down presumably by the F-16 of the Turkish Air Force over the territory of the republic.

        It is very possible, although unlikely. More like panic and a desire to involve one power, which is formally great. So the moment to demonstrate this came in time.
      3. yehat2
        yehat2 30 September 2020 15: 08 New
        +1
        Azerbaijan has already denied that the F-16 shot down the Su-25, but put forward a different version that two planes had already crashed into the mountain.
    2. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 29 September 2020 18: 25 New
      17
      NEXUS "Let's see who later has more."
      Eh, I remember how until 2016, in the fields of VO, the Azerbaijani diaspora tore the Armenians apart. Yes, we are them so ... yes we are their commercials.))) I wrote then only real hostilities will show who and who will break.))) Why are you, we are them this way and that.))) Hmm ..))). The Azerbaijani army, of course, surpasses the Armenians in equipment and in the number of people.))) Yes, of course, the Armenians do not have so many feldy-persian installations. But ... it seems to me that the Armenians at this particular moment are using the equipment they have better than the Azerbaijanis. For me ... the Armenians have better trained troops. And the officer corps is more competent. Armenians are motivated to fight all the way. Especially the Karabakh residents, the relief there is mountainous and if everything is done correctly ... you can shine on the enemy's superiority. I read somewhere in the comments ... "in its videos the Azerbaijani army showed how to shoot. And the Armenian army showed how to hit target".
    3. Keyser soze
      Keyser soze 29 September 2020 19: 01 New
      +4
      If the Turks fit well, I am sure, and then the Kremlin will have its say.


      You don't even need to fight openly - all you have to do is to plant weapons on the Armenians and that's it. I think they will cope with the bashibozuk themselves ...
      1. Boris ⁣ Shaver
        Boris ⁣ Shaver 29 September 2020 20: 49 New
        -4
        Quote: Keyser Soze
        You don't even need to fight openly - you just need to plant weapons on the Armenians and that's it.

        And you just need to give us this idea.
        Joke
        1. Keyser soze
          Keyser soze 29 September 2020 20: 57 New
          0
          And you just need to give us this idea.
          Joke


          Got it laughing I just sympathize with the Armenians sincerely. We have many Armenians who fled from the Turkish genocide in 1915 and they are a good and important part of the Bulgarian society.
          1. dauria
            dauria 30 September 2020 00: 46 New
            16
            I just sympathize with the Armenians sincerely. Many Armenians live here,

            And in Russia, both those and those are approximately equal. And also "an important part of society" laughing So what should we do? Throw a coin?
            This has been dragging on for a long time, back in 88 he came to us for compulsory military service on Sakhalin from the "Karabakh Committee". Savvy so, barely "persuaded" that everyone is equal here. Can you imagine? 30 years ago, a couple of times in the teeth, without sorting - and they have peace and grace with all nations. Maybe it’s worth repeating without sorting?
            1. Krasnoyarsk
              Krasnoyarsk 6 October 2020 19: 33 New
              +1
              Quote: dauria

              This has been dragging on for a long time, back in 88 he came to us for military service in Sakhalin from the "Karabakh Committee". So savvy, they barely "persuaded" that everyone is equal here. Can you imagine? 30 years ago, a couple of times in the teeth, without sorting - and they have peace and grace with all nations.

              I know both Armenians and Azerbaijanis from military service. And those, and others ..... In order not to speak badly, I can not say anything good about them. And to be honest, it's even worse.
              So, let them figure it out. I am against our guys going there, even as advisors, even as peacekeepers.
      2. ashot1973
        ashot1973 29 September 2020 23: 09 New
        +1
        Straight to the bull's-eye !!!
        soldier
        1. boni592807
          boni592807 30 September 2020 10: 26 New
          +4
          ashot1973 (Archangel), Yesterday, 23: 09, NEW - "... Straight to the bull's eye !!! ..." What are you doing? ABOUT,
          dauria (Alexey), Today, 00:46, NEW "... in 88 he came to our conscript service on Sakhalin from the" Karabakh committee. "So savvy, they barely" persuaded "that everyone is equal here. Can you imagine? 30 years ago, a couple of times in the teeth, without sorting - and peace and grace with all nations ... "
          ... ???

          THIS was, as they say 30 years ago in the USSR. And now, why does Russia need THIS... What is the price, maybe - not only money, but the lives of our children?
          They (Azerbaijan and Armenia) have a historical confusion with territories, they dragged on this issue, even under the USSR. But, Russia, got to do with it. Help with negotiations with the participation of incl. Turkey as a guarantor, like the Russian Federation - YES! And if the war, on your own, on your own... Well, if only all the "refugees" from both sides with "back-earned labor" are sent there, at their expense, in the reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs THEY are "heroes"
          We have a smell of war in Belarus. The United States and its partners to drag the Russian Federation into the war with Turkey, and also to drag out Iran, THIS IS A DREAM !!! bully
          Same do not forgetthat we have enough native Muslims, but can arrange a booze (more) "guests" (not native Muslims) are the problems of the Russian Federation, somehow .....
          Can It's time to remember the words of Alexander III about the real allies of Russia! soldier
          It's time to look more realistically at the "brothers" now sovereign (except for Belarusians, Little Russians, Novorossians ...) and partners. Rake on the head is not tired belay ... And then again, someone suddenly SUDDENLY "loses" bully So what, ....
          History Henry John Temple, Lord Palmerston - English statesman, for many years led the defense, then the foreign policy of the state: "... Therefore, I affirm that it is short-sighted to consider this or that country an unchanging ally or an eternal enemy of England. We have no permanent allies, we have no eternal enemies. Only our interests are unchanging and eternal, and our duty is to follow them. - Speech in the House of Commons on March 1, 1848 .... "
          Maybe it's time to grow up ?! hi
          1. Oprichnik
            Oprichnik 30 September 2020 14: 45 New
            +1
            Quite right, there is no need to go there and waste people and resources worthless. In 1892 and 1896 or 8gg. military topographers of the General Staff of the Russian Imperial Army conducted expeditions for mapping and military-economic study and description of the territory of today's Karabakh. We counted and described, among other things, the ethnic composition of the inhabitants and their number. So - they counted TOTAL there - 60 Armenian families. That is, the Armenian aliens settled the territory, and then squeezed it out, driving it out, and partially killing the indigenous Azerbaijanis, Kurds and others. A complete analogy with Kosovo, where the Albanians did the same. Without a just partition or redistribution of the territory, the world will not be there. And when WW1 ended and the revolution took place, both of them robbed and killed the Russian soldiers returning from the front.
            And in 1991-2. The Aomians again killed Russian soldiers in order to seize their weapons.
            And in the 1980s, it was the Armenian terrorists who staged the explosions in the Moscow metro and the store, and the next year they tried to arrange new terrorist attacks - to arrange numerous explosions of directional mines during the demonstration of RUSSIAN people on November 7. So don't think of Armenians as soft, clean and fluffy.
      3. ifdru74
        ifdru74 30 September 2020 17: 07 New
        0
        How to add? Through Iran? And what will the Iranian Azerbadzians say to this?
    4. The comment was deleted.
    5. Name Surname
      Name Surname 30 September 2020 10: 46 New
      -2
      word that shows concern?
  2. bobwings
    bobwings 29 September 2020 17: 27 New
    +8
    Landing of an Azerbaijani Il 76 at the Israeli Air Force base Ovda was recorded today.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/avischarf/status/1310865422724616192
    This is the second flight in a week.
    Israel does not abandon Azerbaijan in difficult times.
    1. Aaron Zawi
      Aaron Zawi 29 September 2020 17: 34 New
      +4
      Quote: bobwings
      Landing of an Azerbaijani Il 76 at the Israeli Air Force base Ovda was recorded today.
      https://mobile.twitter.com/avischarf/status/1310865422724616192
      This is the second flight in a week.
      Israel does not abandon Azerbaijan in difficult times.

      Well, we have long-term military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan. Perhaps they asked to expedite the shipment.
      1. neri73-r
        neri73-r 29 September 2020 18: 00 New
        +9
        Quote: Aron Zaavi
        Perhaps they asked to expedite the shipment.

        Here the Jews and Armenians have settled down, some are unloading, the second are unloading Azerbaijanis! Feast in Time of Plague.
  3. paul3390
    paul3390 29 September 2020 17: 36 New
    +6
    Well, who prevented Armenia from strengthening its defenses all these years? Buying if not new samples, but at least modernized ones? Did they not know how Azerbaijan and Turkey treat them?
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 29 September 2020 17: 47 New
      +6
      Quote: paul3390
      Well, who prevented Armenia from strengthening its defenses all these years?

      Nobody. They also strengthened. They already have two brand new Su-30s. Yet eight are waiting.

      How not to notice such a commentrepeat , and not speed up their sending:

      Quote: Aron Zaavi
      Well, we have long-term military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan. Perhaps they asked to expedite the shipment.
      1. MinskFox
        MinskFox 30 September 2020 15: 15 New
        +1
        If I am not mistaken then 4.
        1. Insurgent
          Insurgent 1 October 2020 06: 50 New
          +1
          Quote: MinskFox
          If I am not mistaken then 4.

          Perhaps ... I could give slightly outdated data. After all, everything flows, everything changes.
    2. bairat
      bairat 29 September 2020 20: 17 New
      +8
      They cannot buy. Armenia has the entire military budget of $ 400 million. And we also need to maintain the army, our own and the Karabakh army, more than 100 thousand bayonets. The loans are most likely hopeless, there is no economy, so we, the Russians, pay. They receive, and recently there was a scandal associated with the fact that Pashinyan and his partners sold part of the received.
      1. Megatron
        Megatron 29 September 2020 21: 55 New
        18
        Armenia is a beggar bantustan sitting on the neck of Russia.
        The best option is to send all these southern gentlemen from both sides of the conflict home, even if they sort things out there.
        1. Oprichnik
          Oprichnik 30 September 2020 14: 49 New
          +4
          A great solution would be. In Minsk, Armenians who fled from Azerbaijan tried to organize their own criminal network. But they were given a hand and head and many left - they did not like it
        2. cyber
          cyber 6 October 2020 09: 44 New
          0
          Wow beggar. The Armenian diaspora in the United States is one of the most influential. In the Krasnodar Territory, they do not live in poverty either, but are one of the richest citizens of Russia. They may well chip in and help their own in their historical homeland.
          1. Megatron
            Megatron 6 October 2020 16: 31 New
            +1
            I'm talking about the country itself and those who live there, it's not for nothing that the majority of Armenians live outside the country, and they don't really want to live there. But all the patsreots, their throats are tearing like they are for Armenia. The same tankian, when Pashinyan came to power, came, spoke and drove off to his states. I am not against Armenians and other Caucasians and Asians from other countries, but let them leave and live in their countries, they have nothing to do here, we have a right not to see them here.
  4. Odysseus
    Odysseus 29 September 2020 17: 43 New
    23
    Let us briefly assess the results of 2 and a half days of the war (let's leave political issues aside).
    1) As expected, the "Karabakh fortress" is very difficult to take. Ohanyan's line has not been broken, tanks are burning in minefields. The offensive is going on in the northeast and in the south (which is quite reasonable - you can use heavy equipment there), but no clear operational plan is yet visible.
    2) There are successes in the south. There is the most favorable terrain for an offensive. But there are only wedges, the operation did not go into the growth phase. An attempt to cut off the northern rockada between Karabakh and Armenia was unsuccessful.
    3) Azerbaijan successfully uses drones, but surprisingly does not use Mi-24 and Su-25. Attacks are carried out by rather large forces of motorized riflemen supported by tanks, but they attack rather strangely - not with all their forces to overcome the Ohanyan line, but rather as reconnaissance in force.
    Artillery is actively used, but MLRS and self-propelled guns are still poorly used (relative to their number). The quality of the infantry is difficult to assess, but not yet impressive.
    4) Armenia does not use aviation (it simply does not have it, but today they announced the loss of the Su-25 as much from the F-16), the artillery is mostly towed. They hold the heights, counterattack in case of loss. Major losses from drones and artillery.
    5) The sides began shelling the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan proper outside the front line.
    So far, all this looks more like a major, but local exacerbation than a general offensive. Much will depend on stocks of ammunition and the availability of reserves with repair capacity.
    1. saigon
      saigon 29 September 2020 19: 52 New
      +8
      I will not say how it is now, but for some thirty years the Azerbaijani infantry looked very sad.
      Were very sensitive to losses, but that then, as now, who knows.
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 29 September 2020 20: 30 New
        +2
        Quote: saigon
        I won't say how it is now, but for some thirty years the Azerbaijani infantry looked very sad

        30 years ago, largely because of this, they lost. Now it's hard to judge by the video. you need to wait. But the first impression, if it got better, is not much better.
        1. Andrey VOV
          Andrey VOV 29 September 2020 21: 22 New
          +3
          Now the main forces and it is the armies of Armenia are not involved ... and the war cannot be won by drones alone
        2. sailor roman
          sailor roman 30 September 2020 13: 18 New
          +5
          I had a chance to serve, back in Soviet times, with those and others. Armenians in service, knowledge and skill of weapons and equipment, in the performance of training and military operations did not differ from Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Ossetians, but the Azerbaijanis were stupid, it was not easy to teach them military science, they were cowardly in the DB and hid behind the backs of others. tried to arrange closer to the galley, the food warehouse, therefore, if it was not possible, they were sent to serve as combatant sailors (in the boatswain's team), but from there they also tried to escape to the shore under the pretext of various diseases.
          1. Victorio
            Victorio 30 September 2020 22: 51 New
            0
            Quote: sailor Roman
            I had a chance to serve, back in Soviet times with both... Armenians in service, knowledge and skill of weapons and equipment, execution of training and military operations did not differ from Russians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Ossetians, but the Azerbaijanis were stupid, it was not easy to teach them military affairs, they were cowardly in the DB and hid behind the backs of others. tried to arrange closer to the galley, the food warehouse, therefore, if they failed, they were sent to serve as combatant sailors (in the boatswain's team), but from there they also tried to escape to the shore under the pretext of various illnesses.

            ===
            an urgent one, too. perhaps / probably the Armenians are smarter and smarter, otherwise they stand
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 29 September 2020 17: 47 New
    22
    The parties have no desire, and did not have, to resolve the conflict peacefully. They "love" each other so much that they cannot eat ... And once the Azerbaijani singers M. Magomayev, P. Bulbul oglu, sang songs to the music of the Armenian composer A. Babajanyan ..
  6. tarakan
    tarakan 29 September 2020 18: 00 New
    +5
    Quote: Karenius
    Quote: paul3390
    Well, who prevented Armenia from strengthening its defenses all these years? Buying if not new samples, but at least modernized ones? Did they not know how Azerbaijan and Turkey treat them?

    Tired of repeating: the Russian Khazars did not like that the Armenians in February 1988. they have thrown off the institution of Jewish wives from their necks and are building a state of law ... And then your Primakov's judoCWR arranged for us on 27.10.99/20/XNUMX, putting the Khazar-worshiping Robik and Serzhik on our necks for XNUMX years ..

    Recently you were against the Russian base at home, now Russia is to blame that you are UNDERSTANDING STRATEGIES.
  7. Livonetc
    Livonetc 29 September 2020 18: 01 New
    +7
    "It is easy to see that the armed forces of Azerbaijan are superior to the army of Armenia in terms of quantity and quality."
    Parity in terms of numbers.
    If we count the army and reserves of Karabakh and Armenia together.
    Azerbaijan's real superiority in tanks.
    Otherwise, the differences are not so significant.
    However, I dare to suggest that the fighting spirit and readiness of the Karabakh units is very high.
    In addition, they are at home and have been preparing for such a scenario for a long time.
    Blitzkrieg didn't work.
    Further, the Azerbaijani army will "get stuck" more and more.
  8. Hwostatij
    Hwostatij 29 September 2020 18: 03 New
    +8
    No matter how Turkey's navel is untied, the 4th front is already being opened (or the 5th)
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 29 September 2020 18: 07 New
      +5
      Will not untie, USA, what for?
  9. tarakan
    tarakan 29 September 2020 18: 03 New
    +3
    Quote: Karenius
    Quote: paul3390
    Run to Russia, bow at your feet ..

    We will call the Persians and Chinese, to the anti-Turkic ally ... Or maybe they themselves will come here, without a call ...

    Fuck do they need you?
    1. Nagaibak
      Nagaibak 29 September 2020 18: 11 New
      +4
      tarakan "The fuck do they need you?"
      the Chinese, of course, do not need them. But the Persians can help not directly so even with weapons or loot. For them, the strengthening of Turkey is like a sickle ...
      1. ZEMCH
        ZEMCH 29 September 2020 18: 52 New
        -7
        Quote: Nagaibak
        the Chinese, of course, do not need them. But the Persians can help not directly so even with weapons or loot. For them, the strengthening of Turkey is like a sickle ...

        Up to 30 million ethnic Azerbaijanis live in Iran. I think Iran is on the side of Azerbaijan, but does not want a Turkish base in the Caspian)))
        1. Nagaibak
          Nagaibak 29 September 2020 21: 27 New
          +4
          ZEMCh "up to 30 million ethnic Azerbaijanis"
          Well, yes, and I was told that there are more Azerbaijanis than Iranians.))) And the fact that there are 40 million of them there))) The question is where is the truth?))) I think there are 15-20 million of them. The Iranians are afraid of creating a large Turkish (Azerbaijani ) of the republic. For your information, these are different peoples and speak different languages. For Iran, the Azerbaijani state is a thorn in the eye. And then when these lands were Iranian.))) Until Russia conquered them.
          1. ZEMCH
            ZEMCH 29 September 2020 21: 40 New
            +1
            Quote: Nagaibak
            Well, yes, and I was told that there are more Azerbaijanis than Iranians.))) And the fact that there are 40 million of them there))) The question is where is the truth?))) I think there are 15-20 million of them. The Iranians are afraid of creating a large Turkish (Azerbaijani ) of the republic. For your information, these are different peoples and speak different languages. For Iran, the Azerbaijani state is a thorn in the eye. And then when these lands were Iranian.))) Until Russia conquered them.

            When the USSR entered Iran during WWII, the National Government of Azerbaijan was formed on the territory occupied by Soviet troops, but after the departure of the Soviets it was destroyed by Iran (((
            And so, for example, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is an ethnic Azerbaijani.
            1. Nagaibak
              Nagaibak 29 September 2020 22: 48 New
              +3
              ZEMCH "When the USSR entered Iran in WWII, the National Government of Azerbaijan was formed on the territory occupied by Soviet troops, but after the departure of the Soviets it was destroyed by Iran ((("
              What actually I was talking about. Iran does not need strengthening of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Otherwise, they will disturb the Iranian Azerbaijanis. Therefore, Iran is for Armenia in this conflict. They supply them with gas and help them out in difficult years. And even when Iran was ruled by kings of Armenians by origin, if I am not mistaken and ruled well.))) Therefore, the Iranians with the Armenians can interact against the Turks and Azerbaijanis. Well, this is purely my subjective opinion.)))
      2. ZEMCH
        ZEMCH 29 September 2020 18: 55 New
        +3
        The Armenian diaspora is very large all over the world, now volunteers will begin to come
        1. Jager
          Jager 29 September 2020 21: 07 New
          +3
          Look forward to. At the same time, take your opponents with you so as not to go in vain)
        2. Megatron
          Megatron 29 September 2020 22: 11 New
          +5
          Yes, of course, most of the Armenians for some reason live anywhere, but not in Armenia.
          They will throw their warm places. Well, remembering the events of 16 years, the best moment was when the drone hit the bus with Armenian militants.
  10. tarakan
    tarakan 29 September 2020 18: 07 New
    +1
    Quote: Insurgent
    Quote: paul3390
    Well, who prevented Armenia from strengthening its defenses all these years?

    Nobody. They also strengthened. They already have two brand new Su-30s. Yet eight are waiting.

    How not to notice such a commentrepeat , and not speed up their sending:

    Quote: Aron Zaavi
    Well, we have long-term military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan. Perhaps they asked to expedite the shipment.

    The question is, why the heck is the Su-30 for a small area? Is it better to order medium and short-range air defense?
  11. tarakan
    tarakan 29 September 2020 18: 11 New
    -4
    Quote: Odyssey
    Let us briefly assess the results of 2 and a half days of the war (let's leave political issues aside).
    1) As expected, the "Karabakh fortress" is very difficult to take. Ohanyan's line has not been broken, tanks are burning in minefields. The offensive is going on in the northeast and in the south (which is quite reasonable - you can use heavy equipment there), but no clear operational plan is yet visible.
    2) There are successes in the south. There is the most favorable terrain for an offensive. But there are only wedges, the operation did not go into the growth phase. An attempt to cut off the northern rockada between Karabakh and Armenia was unsuccessful.
    3) Azerbaijan successfully uses drones, but surprisingly does not use Mi-24 and Su-25. Attacks are carried out by rather large forces of motorized riflemen supported by tanks, but they attack rather strangely - not with all their forces to overcome the Ohanyan line, but rather as reconnaissance in force.
    Artillery is actively used, but MLRS and self-propelled guns are still poorly used (relative to their number). The quality of the infantry is difficult to assess, but not yet impressive.
    4) Armenia does not use aviation (it simply does not have it, but today they announced the loss of the Su-25 as much from the F-16), the artillery is mostly towed. They hold the heights, counterattack in case of loss. Major losses from drones and artillery.
    5) The sides began shelling the territories of Armenia and Azerbaijan proper outside the front line.
    So far, all this looks more like a major, but local exacerbation than a general offensive. Much will depend on stocks of ammunition and the availability of reserves with repair capacity.

    I suppose Azerbadzhan will destroy the resource of Armenia on a planned basis.
    1. Odysseus
      Odysseus 29 September 2020 20: 33 New
      +6
      Quote: tarakan
      I suppose Azerbadzhan will destroy the resource of Armenia on a planned basis.

      Very similar. Perhaps this is precisely the strategy, first taking advantage of the technical advantage to suppress the air defense and knock out all the defensive midfielders, then go forward through the minefields.
      But such a strategy requires waging a war for at least a month. Is this possible in the current political realities, will they be given this month? This is a big question, probably not.
      1. Andrey VOV
        Andrey VOV 29 September 2020 21: 26 New
        -1
        At a critical moment, Pashinyan will turn to the CSTO (Russia) .. and just when more and more blows will be struck on the legally and by all recognized territories of Armenia ... then, I think the videoconferencing will just ... well, OTR ... then stop and again this is the status quo ..
  12. fa2998
    fa2998 29 September 2020 18: 28 New
    +3
    hi
    Quote: NEXUS
    If the Turks fit well, I am sure, and then the Kremlin will have its say.

    Only Turkey is nearby, and Russia is behind the Caucasus. Through "friendly" Georgia.
    1. Jager
      Jager 29 September 2020 21: 09 New
      +5
      Well, this is not the first time through Georgia))
  13. TatarinSSSR
    TatarinSSSR 29 September 2020 18: 31 New
    10
    Calm and sound reasoning on the balance of forces, bravo to the author. Immediately evident, not Damantsev, with his tediousness and reprint of everything that has been discovered. And I wish Armenia and Azerbaijan to stop destroying their own and other people's people, to ruin the families and economies of their countries and find a peaceful solution.
    1. Jager
      Jager 29 September 2020 21: 13 New
      +2
      If they wanted, they would have come to peace and agreement long ago. The conflict was only "frozen", but none of the parties wanted to eliminate it. Alas, but they had constant clashes at the border all the years.
      Suspended conflicts are very convenient for politicians. Is there peace in the Balkans? Bring out the peacekeepers and observers and the bloodbath will begin again ...
      I don't want to mention Donbass ...
      1. TatarinSSSR
        TatarinSSSR 30 September 2020 12: 38 New
        +1
        Yes you are right. All conflicts are supported for specific purposes, both political and economic. Frozen border conflicts are very beneficial.
  14. lubesky
    lubesky 29 September 2020 18: 56 New
    +5
    What surprises me most in this situation is how such small countries, moreover, relatively mono-national ones, allow themselves to be used in the game? After all, the depth of the front does not allow counting on something good, people are dying. Equipment also perishes, despite the fact that the repair component is clearly weak for both. Such conflicts during expansion will give nothing but grief, economic collapse and mutual destruction of the resource component. I do not say what a disaster for the two countries will become a protracted, sluggish current conflict of low intensity at the forefront, while grinding the main forces of defeat ...
    1. Jager
      Jager 29 September 2020 21: 20 New
      +3
      Nobody cares about people. In this respect, the army is only a tool, a continuation of politics and a consumable. All these are games of "big brothers" and the elite of small states are just puppets, all the difference is who has the threads of influence on them.
      I am absolutely sure that this conflict, if it develops into a hot phase, is only a small part of the "game" and a cover for a real "game of chess".
  15. high
    high 29 September 2020 20: 29 New
    +2
    Quote: NEXUS

    Let's see who later has something more. If the Turks fit well, I am sure, and then the Kremlin will have its say.

    The Kremlin will not get involved in the conflict, there is a threat of Turkey blocking the passage of ships to the Mediterranean Sea,
  16. certero
    certero 29 September 2020 21: 12 New
    0
    Quote: TatarinSSSR
    And I wish Armenia and Azerbaijan to stop destroying their own and other people's people, to ruin the families and economies of their countries and find a peaceful solution.

    With the present generations, it is simply impossible. Only some influential external force could solve this. For example the Soviet Union
    1. your1970
      your1970 30 September 2020 07: 35 New
      -1
      Quote: certero
      Only some influential external force could solve this. For example the Soviet Union

      Karabakh began under the USSR ... And they could not resolve this issue ...
  17. garik77
    garik77 29 September 2020 22: 06 New
    0
    Quote: bairat
    Armenia has the entire military budget of $ 400 million.

    625 million Also not a lot, but nevertheless.
  18. tarakan
    tarakan 29 September 2020 22: 26 New
    0
    For guessing -3? I do not care, but I wonder why? smile
    1. Odysseus
      Odysseus 29 September 2020 23: 03 New
      0
      Quote: tarakan
      For guessing -3? I do not care, but I wonder why?

      I put you a plus smile You have offended someone
  19. VyacheSeymour
    VyacheSeymour 29 September 2020 23: 52 New
    +4
    Wherever you spit, everywhere is an expert .. ..
    And the expert was too lazy to dig TSAMTO, Khramchikhin, Vikki in the end ... Where are the Azerbaijani Stilettos, Spiders, Barraki, Torah ...
    Where is Sakarya, Gasyrga, Tosy, Tornado, Hurricanes .... Very much where?
    Where are the Armenian Armor, Buki?
    Where are CBT, WM-80 ...
    Iskander E, not Iskander M.
    Azerbaijan has no Su-24s at all, but it has a Mi24nochnaya.
    .............
    In general, -Expert! - With a capital letter ...- The whole article is a continuous blooper ...
  20. svoit
    svoit 30 September 2020 00: 03 New
    +1
    Well, miracles do not happen here, whoever has a stronger economy, and the army is also not weak. Most likely, Azerbaijan will still manage to occupy part of the territories that are not part of the NKAO, maybe except for the Lachin corridor. This will already be a good bargaining chip in future negotiations.
    1. Vladivostok1969
      Vladivostok1969 30 September 2020 02: 13 New
      +2
      Almost the entire 1988 and 1989 years had to be spent in the Transcaucasia. Yerevan, Baku, Sumgait, Stepanokert, Martuni, Leninakan and much more. Everything in turn and mixed. But there is a strong opinion that Azerbaijanis are still more traders, and Armenians are more war. IMHO ...
  21. svoit
    svoit 30 September 2020 00: 13 New
    0
    Quote: Odyssey
    but rather as reconnaissance in force.

    Most likely it is, the goal is to open up the defense, suppress the air defense and tie up part of the forces, after which the main forces of the ground forces and the air force will join in those places where the Armenians will not have time to deploy reserves.
  22. Imperial Technocrat
    Imperial Technocrat 30 September 2020 01: 42 New
    -10 qualifying.
    As a result, the Azeris lost
  23. konstantinos kontogiannidis
    konstantinos kontogiannidis 30 September 2020 10: 25 New
    -1
    “Serpent believe more than Jew, trust more than Greek, but never trust an apian.”
    George Orwell
  24. Romka47
    Romka47 30 September 2020 15: 01 New
    0
    The first photo shows tanks from Azerbaijan, not Armenia.
  25. yehat2
    yehat2 30 September 2020 15: 15 New
    +2
    based on the above, Azerbaijan does not have a significant advantage in personnel at all -
    the main advantage is in technology and supply capabilities, most of the advantage is leveled by the relief and the preparation for the defense conducted for a long time.
    So I see only 2 options - either one side is engaged in idiocy and drains its army and then everything quickly ends in complete victory, or the battles go on for 1-2 months and then they subside. both sides fizzled out. So far, Azerbaijan is saved only by the best equipment with aviation and UAVs from heavy losses - on the ground they are not fighting effectively enough. I think that after 5-7 days of fighting, the activity of aviation will greatly decrease and then the Armenians will be able to resist thoroughly.
  26. raif
    raif 30 September 2020 17: 57 New
    0
    "The National Army of Azerbaijan (NAA) is quite large and one of the strongest in the region. For example, the Global Firepower rating puts it 64th in the world - significantly higher than likely opponents."
    now we look at the "probable opponents" - along the perimeter of the borders:
    1. Russia.
    2. Turkey.
    3. Iran.
    4. Armenia / NKR.
    .
    .
    .
    5. Georgia (it seems like the only ones the Azerbaijanis can do).
    did you miss anyone? I do not consider the Turkmen and Kazakhs - the Azeri fleet does not have the ability to land there.
  27. Dilettante grandfather
    Dilettante grandfather 1 October 2020 11: 25 New
    0
    It's sad when people are at war. Territorial claims must be canceled, the disputed territories must be declared a zone. free from any weapons, and give them the right to self-determination.
  28. serg2108
    serg2108 1 October 2020 11: 37 New
    0
    fool let them play war, don’t figs get in there - already tired of the Russian guys to defend the interests of allies - who themselves do not understand that their authorities are a wretched laughing stock of freaks! offset however (although in this match I stick more to the Armenian position) IMHO
  29. Evil 55
    Evil 55 1 October 2020 14: 16 New
    0
    The Armenians have more T-90s than the Russian army ...
  30. Wladimir71
    Wladimir71 3 October 2020 11: 26 New
    0
    Azerbaijan will win. they will arrange a fuel blockade for the NCR. long-term confrontation will wear down Armenia. Azerbaijan will take its toll but will be punished for it with sanctions. Officially, they will no longer buy oil from him, but they will do it unofficially and several times cheaper. This is where the true face of the customer and the intentions of this whole adventure will appear - it will be Turkey. Erdogan's son's tankers are idle. the Americans have cleaned up the Syrian oil and now they are dry as a bucket of sand.
  31. Petrik66
    Petrik66 5 October 2020 11: 18 New
    0
    I just want to quote Simonyan's answer to her article to Pashinyan dated July 19, 2020, published in Armenia Today.
    A polite letter to Margarita Simonyan. Rafael Hovhannisyan.

    Margarita.
    You wrote a very angry appeal to the Armenian authorities, but it happened so that the people, of which you consider yourself a part, can also read. And these people, apparently, did not like your appeal. I'll take the liberty of suggesting why.
    First, you shouldn't be nervous. From this they lose weight, but why do you need it?
    Secondly, long before the Crimea appeared in our lives, there was Karabakh, which Russia also did not recognize. So, should Armenia recognize Crimea?
    Thirdly. We do not interfere in the trial of the governor of the Khabarovsk Territory, for example, we do not write that all of Khabarovsk went out into the streets demanding his release. We don't write, do we? No, right? Right. Because this is an internal affair of Russia.
    Well, you would not interfere, you would be so kind.
    A trial is underway and if Robert Kocharian's guilt is not proven, he will calmly continue to be Russia's ally.
    Fourth. You are greatly concerned about the presence of foreign NGOs in Armenia, which "teach young people how to overthrow the government in Russia." Fear Putin, Margarita, the power in Russia cannot overthrow even the great, multimillion-strong Russian people, to say nothing of the poor, Armenian youth.
    Fifth. You are noticeably concerned about the fact that in the Armenian social. nets throw mud at Russia, Putin and Russian Armenians like you. Here you are partially right. I will not hide the fact that some people do not like Vladimir Vladimirovich. It is what it is.
    But many people love Russia in Armenia. Do you know why? Because 3 million Armenians live in Russia and our connection with this country is inseparable.
    And also because we have a common culture, Khachaturian, Babadzhanyan, Bryusov, Mandelstam, you know.
    As for Russian Armenians like you.
    The fact is that there are no Armenians like you. You are so alone, Margarita. There are no Russian Armenians. There are Russian Armenians.
    And we have the warmest attitude towards the Russian Armenians. Because they are part of us.
    At sixth. About the government and the people.
    I have nothing to do with the Armenian government, moreover, I disagree with some of its actions and often criticize this government. But this power, Margarita, was chosen by the population of the Republic of Armenia.
    Do you understand?
    It happened. It was supported by the very people to whom you are not addressing.
    If the population of Armenia does not like this government, if this government fails, the population will replace it with another. Through elections. There is such a mechanism in Armenia. It's not quite the same here as in Russia. Only the calculator is reset here. When we do not like this power, we will simply exchange these people for others. I try to explain this technology to you as much as possible so that you understand.
    So, since this power was chosen by the majority of the people, it turns out that you are turning to him too. Here is a logical chain.
    And finally the last one.
    Regarding the fact that Russia has done everything for us, and we ungrateful have done Russia evil, the ghosts of the Turkish janissaries and then such cosmic crap that I will not even try to repeat it.
    Margarita.
    Please be careful.
    Armenia, even if it really wants to, will not be able to do much harm to Russia.
    We are a small, peaceful country defending our land from aggressors. Believe me, Armenia wishes no harm to anyone, including Russia. If you haven't forgotten, you and I are Allies and Strategic Partners.
    As for whether we will be them in the future, it depends on you too.
    Do you understand?
    Behind this message of yours, I still see the mustachioed face of Dmitry Peskov and his imperial messages of the Armenian government. Everything is clear here. But why this hostile tone on your part?
    As for the help.
    Help - let's say thank you. If you don’t help, nobody will cry and beg.
    You have already zadolbali everyone with this we will help you - we will not help, an ally is not an ally, a partner is not a partner. Because of you and people like you Mirzayanov, even its most ardent supporters are already beginning to tire of Russia.
    You do not notice that you are causing harm to relations between our countries.
    You don't talk to friends like that.
    You write that your beloved, beloved homeland, Russia, can spit on us and grind. I don't think Russia will spit. And I do not advise you. This does not suit a woman.
    Concerning Narekatsi. I also read it very often like you. Both the original and the excellent translation by Naum Grebnev, which you are reading. However, perhaps you are not reading this Book very carefully, otherwise you would know that in order to be closer to God, it is necessary to free oneself from vices, for example, such as lies,
    hypocrisy and pride.
    This concludes my long, but hopefully polite letter, and I wish you and your family health and well-being.
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 5 October 2020 16: 53 New
      0
      Hot skirmish between Pashinyans and Zaputins. In fact, the bourgeoisie will always find a way to push their rams against the neighbors. This is immeasurably more profitable than being responsible for the lack of social justice within their states. False patriotism is now at a great price!
  32. yehat2
    yehat2 8 October 2020 15: 24 New
    0
    Quote: Insurgent
    Nobody. They strengthened

    they did not even fulfill what in February 41 the USSR headquarters demanded from the troops on the border with Germany.
    no sensible preparation has been done. There were no regular exercises (seen from the behavior of the soldiers), there was no preparation for the first strike (mainly by camouflaging and digging in important elements of the defense), artillery positions were not prepared for effective fire, etc.
    I suspect the commanders on the border have not received any real plans for effective defense.
    These are elementary things from the charter that did not require any serious expenses.
    compare with how the North Koreans fortified the border - there even 10 mechanized divisions with air and artillery support will get bogged down.
  33. Vsevolod Sidorov
    Vsevolod Sidorov 8 October 2020 16: 52 New
    0
    at 87, 2 squads fired at me - Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The Armenians shot 7 times more points.
    So there is no 7 to 1 ratio - you don't understand who will shoot whom ...
    1. Bilal
      Bilal 7 November 2020 05: 54 New
      0
      Since then (from 87th) a lot of water has flown under the bridge and the Azerbaijanis have learned to control artillery and make accurate calculations of targets. The result is obvious. Point artillery strikes turn out cool (not without the help of the UAV).