Military Review

How the devaluation of the ruble is linked to conflicts on the borders of Russia

36

The world today is torn apart by political, economic, ethnic and confessional conflicts. We, as befits the citizens of Russia, see discord on our borders. We see the situation in Belarus, in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the Caspian Sea, in Georgia and so on. But conflicts are spreading around the world. Sometimes it seems that the face of the planet has somehow turned into an ugly mask of a smallpox patient.


At the same time, the leaders of many states declare the possibility of a military solution to such conflicts. The recent example of Nagorno-Karabakh is an excellent example of this approach. The Turkish President and top Turkish officials constantly declare their readiness to support Azerbaijan in the war with Armenia. In this case, assistance is provided as always. Arms supplies, instructors, diplomatic games.

We do not look better either. Every day I read or hear statements that Russia and Armenia are allies, and ... True, then they talk about the cooling of our relations today, about the President of Armenia, who did not deign to turn to Moscow for military assistance. About the pro-American course in Yerevan and the pro-Turkish course in Baku ...

Why doesn't anyone take the Turkish leader's threatening speeches seriously? Judging by the reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the reaction of NATO, Yerevan and Baku? Everyone understands that the peacock is a beautiful bird, but not a fighting cock. A detachment of chickens. And the Turkish army is not strong enough to dictate its will to the entire East.

Syria has shown who is who. And the participation of the Turkish Armed Forces in many conflicts today clearly speaks in favor of the fact that Ankara is throwing dust in the eyes of others. Turkey cannot conduct database in many directions at the same time.

Everything depends on the economy


Probably, many have noticed how the opinions of Russians were divided on the possible actions of our country in Nagorno-Karabakh? If quite recently, in the event of any friction, some kind of shooting in NK, the majority did not hesitate to take the side of Yerevan, today there is no such monolith.

Armenia itself is largely to blame for this. There has never been as much negativity and filth as we have heard about Russia during the presidency of the current Prime Minister of Armenia. And the course of the Armenian state today is more anti-Russian than pro-Russian. But the point, it seems to me, is different.

It's about the general situation in the world. More precisely, in the global economy. And its impact on the economy of specific countries. Conflicts, armed confrontation, diplomatic wars and other international clashes arise largely due to the fact that governments and leaders of countries in this way try to distract people from internal problems. An external enemy is the best way to unite the nation.

The same applies to the reaction of leading countries to conflicts in their area of ​​interest. Everyone understands the background of these conflicts and the possible consequences for the internal politics of their countries. What has been and is happening in the countries of Western Europe is a derivative of the foreign policy of these countries. All these speeches, demonstrations and other protests are essentially just a reaction of the people to the deterioration of their own lives.

Let's talk about Russia


To begin with, it is worth remembering the generally known facts. First, in all of his statements on domestic politics, President Putin repeats the same phrase. The government will continue to fulfill all social obligations. Simply put, social payments to the poor, pensioners, unemployed and other beneficiaries will not only be paid in the same amount, but will also increase in accordance with the decisions made.

The second fact that does not require explanation. The gas and oil war, which the West organized by analogy with the war against the USSR, did not end. Oil and gas prices, despite all efforts of international organizations to stabilize the market, do not rise to the negotiated level. Accordingly, the profits of the exporting countries are not growing.

Third fact. The second wave of coronavirus has really begun in the world. This means that the leaders of many countries will be forced to declare quarantine again. Small and medium enterprises will suffer again. Again, young people will study remotely. Again, many will start having problems with paying off loans, purchasing necessary goods, and so on.

Fourth fact. Another result of the introduction of quarantine will be a decrease in imports and exports. Falling production will lead to a fall in these indicators. This means that foreign exchange receipts to the budget will decrease. It turns out that we, in the sense of the state, will earn less.

Hence follows a simple and understandable conclusion to all. There will be no significant economic recovery this year. At best, the government should be able to make ends meet. Fulfill budget commitments without ruining the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

There is a solution to the problem, but ...


After the above facts, I think it becomes clear what the government of the Russian Federation is doing today. It solves the problem of finding free funds to fulfill orders and promises to the people of the president. The task, frankly, is not an easy one. It is necessary to follow the instructions of the head of state, and not to anger the people.

We still remember the first solution. The path is simple and beautifully called "budget sequestration". The same one that we experienced in 2008. Many people remember how they cut budget spending back then. Quite a few people have been affected by these reductions. Sequestration is a tough event. And, like any tough event, it can cause discontent among the people. Become the wick that will set the country on fire.

Judging by the fact that the media are silent about the sequestration, the government is not considering this option. At least in the public sphere. Consequently, the Kremlin has an understanding that it is really hard for most people today. The stock of fat that was accumulated before the pandemic is running out. More and more people need real help from the state.

By the way, according to some expert estimates of our economists, up to 70 percent of Russians are somehow connected with the budget. These are not only social payments and incomes of public sector employees, but also the profit of businesses that work with public sector organizations and fulfill government orders.

There is also a second path, which, as it seems to me, was taken by the Russian government. This is a waiting tactic. It's no secret that hydrocarbons constitute a fairly large part of our exports. That is why the surges in oil and gas prices hit the budget revenues quite seriously.

In principle, while the price of Brent crude oil is in the region of 42-43 dollars per barrel, we are at zero. NWF need not be touched. But if the price falls below, the Bank of Russia will start selling currency from the NWF. True, on the domestic market, which increases the demand for rubles.

But in the current situation of instability, the Bank of Russia is forced to go for a creeping devaluation, unnoticeable for ordinary citizens. Evidence? Look at the ruble exchange rate during the pandemic. Why should the bank devalue the ruble now, when the situation seems to be stabilizing? It seems to me that the lesson of 1998 has not been forgotten by Russian financiers. Then the Central Bank practically used all the reserves of the state and could not prevent the collapse of the ruble.

Alas, a creeping devaluation is inevitable. This is a completely economically justified operation. Not just another invention of liberals or patriots. This is an objective reality that must be reckoned with.

Instead of conclusions


It is clear that in the current conditions any additional costs, including for carrying out some unscheduled army events, will hit the economy quite hard. Participation, even fragmentary, in some new conflict not planned in the budget will give rise to many problems for the Bank of Russia.

Hence, it follows a completely natural conclusion: Russia will postpone a military solution to any conflict to the last. Including in Nagorno-Karabakh. But if the situation gets out of control and only a military solution remains, the blow will be very serious, practically ending the conflict completely. The lengthy conversations and persuasions that are currently underway in Syria are beyond our reach.
Author:
Photos used:
pixabay.com
36 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. iouris
    iouris 30 September 2020 15: 03
    +1
    Come on, more conflicts - I have $ 100 more!
    1. Ilya-spb
      Ilya-spb 30 September 2020 15: 13
      +7
      No, that's enough for us wars ...

      I agree with the author - the main driver of most modern conflicts is the distraction of peoples' attention from internal problems.
      1. iouris
        iouris 30 September 2020 15: 32
        -2
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        No, that's enough for us wars ...

        It's only the beginning. Well, if you don't want to fight, please, surrender. But no one promised to feed the prisoners.
        1. Mitroha
          Mitroha 30 September 2020 16: 23
          12
          In some ways I agree with the author, in others I do not. But from the phrase
          There will be no significant economic recovery this year
          he just laughed.
          Here the pants would not be lost, but you mean some kind of rise.
        2. nikvic46
          nikvic46 30 September 2020 17: 22
          +1
          In general, politicians calling for war are butchers, especially since this is not a holy war.
    2. vladimirvn
      vladimirvn 30 September 2020 16: 12
      12
      I cannot imagine an event in the world after which the ruble exchange rate would not fall.
      1. Cube123
        Cube123 30 September 2020 17: 09
        -2
        Quote: vladimirvn
        I cannot imagine an event in the world after which the ruble exchange rate would not fall.

        Come on, panic. Falling yesterday - growing today
        https://www.finam.ru/
      2. nikvic46
        nikvic46 30 September 2020 17: 24
        +6
        Vladimir Nikolayevich. Until 1998, I also could not imagine. And after the ruble flew like a bird.
    3. Nastia makarova
      Nastia makarova 1 October 2020 11: 05
      -5
      Soon they will be gone
  2. Megatron
    Megatron 30 September 2020 15: 05
    19
    The devaluation of the ruble is due to the fact that the regime wants to compensate all these coronavirus payments at the expense of the population, etc.
    1. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 30 September 2020 15: 15
      14
      And don't blather! They say silence is gold!
  3. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 30 September 2020 15: 06
    0
    I do not agree with the author's conclusion.
    In this case, I assume that our government will not give the go-ahead.
    1. aleksejkabanets
      aleksejkabanets 30 September 2020 15: 36
      +3
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      In this case, I assume that our government will not give the go-ahead.

      Who knows how to know. It all depends on the economy and the internal situation in the country. If the authorities consider that the domestic political benefits from the "small victorious war" will outweigh the economic losses from sanctions and other things, then they may well give the go-ahead. In addition, one should not forget that Armenia is a member of the CSTO. Moreover, the Armenian diaspora in Russia is quite strong.
  4. lucul
    lucul 30 September 2020 15: 07
    -4
    Any conflict nullifies the loan interest in the country of conflict through devaluation, in fact, for this purpose it is provoked ...
  5. apro
    apro 30 September 2020 15: 11
    +9
    This is a consequence and not a reason ... playing the course is easier than doing business. All the more there is no clear economic strategy. As well as industry ...
  6. rocket757
    rocket757 30 September 2020 15: 11
    +3
    How the devaluation of the ruble is linked to conflicts on the borders of Russia

    all the same, a floating rate and devaluation, there is a difference in the essence of the process.
  7. prior
    prior 30 September 2020 15: 13
    16
    The cost of the Soviet ruble did not jump like a pan and head on the Kiev Maidan,
    because the USSR was a really sovereign state.
    The Russian ruble is the currency of a colonial dependent country.
    However, everything must be changed in the "Danish" kingdom.
    Otherwise - crank ...
    1. iouris
      iouris 30 September 2020 15: 16
      0
      Quote: prior
      However, everything must be changed in the "Danish" kingdom.

      Something tells me that nothing can be changed. Everything will change by itself.
      1. prior
        prior 30 September 2020 15: 22
        +1
        And yet, I really want to hope for the best ...
        1. iouris
          iouris 30 September 2020 15: 33
          +1
          As I understand you ...
      2. DenZ
        DenZ 30 September 2020 16: 03
        +3
        Quote: iouris
        Something tells me that nothing can be changed. Everything will change by itself.

        You also say that "The market will regulate everything itself" as the American sang to us in the early 90s. Everything itself is just a ride, but I still want to influence this situation.
        1. iouris
          iouris 30 September 2020 16: 27
          0
          I certainly did not mean the market. The "market economy" is a myth. It is especially funny to talk about this in our time, when state regulation has been in the USA since the 1930s.
  8. paul3390
    paul3390 30 September 2020 15: 23
    18
    Doesn't it seem that at least the last 10 years - the reign of our guarantor is a continuous series of failures, failures and failures? Take away Crimea and everything will become extremely sad ... And this is understandable - Putin acts exclusively in the interests of the oligarchs, and they do not coincide with the interests of the people and the country for a long time already ...

    As a result, the state is actually losing control, for no one has been listening to Putin for a long time and is not afraid, but it seems that they do not take it seriously. Not domestically or abroad. The economy is rapidly sinking into zeppa under the leadership of the liberals appointed by the guarantor, the people are becoming impoverished by leaps and bounds, all levels of leadership solve exclusively their financial problems, no one at all trusts the authorities, and so on and so forth .. And then there's the coronavirus ..

    Well - and how can it all end? Moreover, simply changing Putin will obviously not give anything, because the bourgeois Vulgaris will plant exactly the same .. If not worse ..
    1. depressant
      depressant 30 September 2020 17: 55
      +4
      It seems that Putin is well aware that the state is losing control. In fact, Putin himself is losing control. If earlier it was possible to manage with the help of incriminating evidence against officials, now the West has exposed incriminating evidence against itself. Whether this is either an obvious widespread insolence of the bureaucracy, or a clear aggravation of the foreign policy situation, as well as internal political tension, or all this together forced the president to make a retaliatory move against a set of circumstances by introducing a new version of the constitutional law "On the Government of the Russian Federation" from 1997 to the State Duma. In accordance with this document, the government will no longer be the country's highest executive body. The President will have the right to revoke government decrees at will, without changing it to a new one. And if in the law of 1997
      Since the government is magnificently called the highest executive body of the Russian Federation, as well as a collegial body that heads the unified system of executive power in the Russian Federation, then, according to the wording proposed by Putin, the status of the cabinet of ministers is reduced to just the exercise of executive power in Russia under the general leadership of the President of the Russian Federation.
      Thus, the cabinet of ministers becomes an ordinary power body among others of the same kind.
      At the same time, in accordance with the new version of the draft law, the president will retain the right to cancel decisions and orders of the government in the event of their contradiction with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, federal constitutional laws, federal laws, decrees and orders of Putin himself as president of the Russian Federation. I think the latter is important.
      As before, the President of the Russian Federation will appoint and dismiss the Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers. But now the State Duma will only approve the head of the Cabinet. And if he does not want to, they will not ask whom Putin will appoint, he will be - without the red tape of discussions. In the same way, he himself will appoint an interim. And if he chases the prime minister, then the whole cabinet will not be dispersed.
      Well, such is the Marlezon ballet performed by officials.
      The only question is whether these measures are sufficient to improve the country's governance. It was painfully arrogant to become a top official in the coronavirus freeman. I am especially worried about the fate of the national infrastructure project. There is something to talk about.
  9. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 30 September 2020 15: 46
    +1
    The gas and oil war, which the West organized by analogy with the war against the USSR, did not end. Oil and gas prices, despite all efforts of international organizations to stabilize the market, do not rise to the negotiated level. Accordingly, the profits of the exporting countries are not growing.

    I wonder what is the contractual level? It is impossible to play in the same way as with the constant rise in gasoline prices inside the country, in the world. It is not for nothing that cheap gasoline from the same Kazakhstan will not be allowed into our country, because then prices cannot be kept at the "contractual level" wassat
  10. Edward Vashchenko
    Edward Vashchenko 30 September 2020 15: 47
    +1
    Alas, a creeping devaluation is inevitable. This is a completely economically justified operation. Not just another invention of liberals or patriots. This is an objective reality that must be reckoned with.

    Bad dancer
  11. Tsoy
    Tsoy 30 September 2020 15: 55
    +4
    The fat accumulated before the pandemic, say ...
    According to my personal feelings, my fat reserve dried up in the year 2015 ... Well, there is a dollar at 100, remember? For the past 5 years, the economy has stood still and now it is very convenient to throw everything off on a pandemic, but in reality the growth was near-zero even before that.
  12. Kunduz
    Kunduz 30 September 2020 16: 21
    +3
    The budget deficit is currently 4,7 trillion rubles. Due to the devaluation of the ruble, the Central Bank is trying to replenish the budget with the ruble mass. In addition, we have a negative balance in foreign trade - we spend more currencies than we earn. After the sale of Sberbank, the Central Bank spent the proceeds (about 185 billion rubles) on the purchase of foreign currency with subsequent resale on the domestic market to cover the needs of banks and enterprises. They are over. The Central Bank preferred to use borrowed funds rather than its reserves to acquire currency. It is clear the case in international financial institutions. Mishustin pushed through a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank, which led to a decrease in interest among foreign investors in Russian government bonds. The rate cut also did not lead to an increase in loan portfolios, as the Basel agreement with the IMF forces banks to increase loan reserves (5-7% to the key rate). There is no economic development. The people are poor, because the ruble is depreciating. Sorry for some confusion in the presentation.
  13. Kronos
    Kronos 30 September 2020 16: 22
    +6
    The article is complete nonsense, since the Turks do not take everything seriously and that they allegedly will not pull a new war. Concluding that the citizens still have some reserves and the government has an understanding.
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 30 September 2020 20: 58
      +3
      The article is complete nonsense
      .. The main thing is ideologically sustained ... laughing
  14. parusnik
    parusnik 30 September 2020 20: 56
    +3
    The ruble exchange rate had to be fixed in the amendments to the Constitution: 1 ruble - 1 dollar ... laughing And it would be all right ... laughing
    But if the situation gets out of control and only a military solution remains, the blow will be very serious, practically ending the conflict completely.
    ... Who are we going to hit? Armenia or Azerbaijan? Or both at once? laughing Now is not 1920 -1921 ... when the 11th Red Army put things in order in Transcaucasia, overthrew all the nationalist governments, and by the way stopped the Armenian-Azerbaijani war, which lasted from 1918 to 1920. Maybe we will hit Turkey? laughing which we build a nuclear power plant, we give gas, S-400 ... laughing
  15. Aleks2000
    Aleks2000 30 September 2020 21: 02
    +4
    The phrase "But in the current situation of instability, the Bank of Russia is forced to go for a creeping devaluation, unnoticeable for ordinary citizens."

    If the author does not notice, then most people notice it very much. The dollar stood - everything went up. The dollar is growing - urya-msmi briskly scribble articles about the troubles in YSA. Even blacks are sometimes remembered again ...

    But the Kremlin cheerfully lies about the minimum 4% inflation ...
    .
    Syria, not Syria, Kakrabakh, not Karabakh, oil prices, not prices - gasoline still rises and everything else too ...
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 30 September 2020 21: 10
      +2
      gasoline still rises in price
      ... Moreover, regardless of the oil price ... smile
  16. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 1 October 2020 07: 53
    +3
    ... Including in Nagorno-Karabakh. But if the situation gets out of control and only a military solution remains, the blow will be very serious, practically ending the conflict completely.

    The conflict involved:
    Armenia, Azerbaijan and, in fact, Karabakh itself.
    Who should be hit?
    1. A. Privalov
      A. Privalov 1 October 2020 08: 09
      +2
      Turkey is already climbing there. Syria, Libya, northern Cyprus are not enough for her ...
      Maybe pinch her?
  17. Kushka
    Kushka 5 October 2020 22: 36
    0
    Even domestic
    historians are confused - some count 12,
    and the other 16 wars between Russia and Turkey. Here
    we do not know how to do it once and for centuries.
    Now redo it. Joke:
    The girl comes to work in the morning and is straight
    not my own from anger. The employee asks
    - what is it, in the morning? - Can you imagine yesterday
    I go home from work and meet a classmate!
    Mom, 10 years have passed, first love!
    He took me to a restaurant, looked after, did not know what
    treat. Then flowers, a room in a hotel and
    I did everything as in a fairy tale, as it should!
    I came home, and my- this- took
    redo - and ruined everything!