Military Review

RAND Corporation on the prospects of the Su-57

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Photo: wikimedia.org


Recently, the RAND Corporation think tank published the article "Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft?" ("Russian heavy fighter-bomber Su-57: is it really a 5th generation aircraft?") Its authors considered a promising Russian project and made their own conclusions. The latter are of some interest, but they raise big questions.

Development problems


By RAND Corp. collected and studied the available information from open sources and offer their views on the current situation around the Su-57. The main conclusion is that, due to numerous problems and delays, the new fighter is unlikely to be exported until the middle of this decade.

RAND recalls that the Su-57 has been in development since 2002 and is seen as a key element of defense exports. The first flight of such a machine took place more than 10 years ago, but it has not yet entered service with the Russian or foreign air forces.

Tests are underway, incl. as part of the Syrian operation, but problems in the development phase and last year's crash are shifting the achievement of initial operational readiness to the right. Full service of the Su-57, according to RAND, will begin no earlier than the mid-twenties. During the same period, export may start.

The main task in the context of the Su-57 is now the development of the so-called. second stage engine. How soon this process will end is unknown. At the same time, a negative impact on the course of the program as a whole is expected. RAND cites expert estimates that the first series of 76 aircraft will be equipped with engines from the previous model.

According to the developers, the Su-57 fighter gets the ability to track the entire surrounding space using a system of distributed sensors throughout the airframe. By RAND Corp. indicate that the 5th generation fighter should not only be inconspicuous, but also have advanced surveillance equipment with all-round visibility. They also remind that now in the series there is only one aircraft that meets these two requirements - the American F-35.

RAND Corporation on the prospects of the Su-57
Experienced Su-57 with a second stage engine

RAND believes that the development of modern electronic equipment has been and remains one of the main problems of the Russian aviation industry. In the past, this industry lagged behind foreign competitors, but after 2014 the situation worsened - it was affected by sanctions and the severance of industrial ties with foreign enterprises. The Russian leadership has repeatedly spoken about the need for independent development of electronics, but the results in this area are still modest.

Economic problems


RAND also considered the financial and economic aspects of creating new technology, incl. fighter Su-57. Most of the problems of this kind are associated with the specifics of financing industry and promising projects.

The development of new samples is carried out by large corporations that apply for loans from Russian banks. Promising projects have repeatedly faced difficulties, because of which the developers could not pay off the loan and found themselves in a difficult situation. After that, the Russian authorities had to “save” key enterprises.

RAND points out that defense spending was tightly tied to energy revenues. The events of recent years, when Russia had to compete with Saudi Arabia, led to a reduction in oil and gas revenues with understandable consequences for the expenditure side of the budget. Recovery from this period has faced new challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Export problems


To stabilize the current situation, the Russian leadership is going to sell new aircraft to foreign countries, as well as to involve them in joint work. The authors remind that since 2007 India participated in the development of the future Su-57, in the future it was going to put such an aircraft into service. However, in 2018 she left the project due to delays in the development of the second phase engine and disagreements over technology transfer.

Attempts to return to cooperation were unsuccessful. India announced its intention to independently create a 5th generation fighter. The engine issue is planned to be resolved with French, British and American aid. However, such events do not interfere with the continuation of cooperation in other areas. Not so long ago, the Indian Air Force purchased the next Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighters of the previous generation.


The ability to interact with slave UAVs is one of the characteristic features of the new generation of fighters

The search for new partners continues, which could be China, Algeria, Vietnam or Turkey. In December last year, there were reports of the possible delivery of 12 Su-57s to the Algerian Air Force. RAND indicates that such news raised doubts due to difficulties in starting production. It is unlikely that Algeria will be able to receive equipment until 2025. In addition, Algerian legislation requires testing new equipment at local landfills before purchasing. Foreign experts believe that Russia will not agree to this.

Considering the current state of the project, the authors of RAND Corp. doubt that the Su-57 will be able to fully enter the international market before the end of the twenties. It is also noted that upon completion of development, the Russian fighter will combine the qualities of the 5 and 4+ generations, as a result of which it will be similar to both the F-35 and the F-15EX.

Assessment problems


The look of foreign experts from a well-known organization on one of the main Russian projects of our time is certainly of interest. However, a note from RAND Corp. raises serious questions.

First of all, it should be noted the incomplete correspondence between the title and the topics covered. Compliance of the Su-57 with the requirements for the 5th generation is considered only in passing, while the main topics of publication were the difficulties in development and export prospects. As a result, the question from the title did not receive a direct answer - and it is unclear whether the Su-57 belongs to the latest generation.

At the same time, it is well known and obvious that the Su-57, even in its current configuration with a first stage engine, meets the basic requirements and can rightfully be called a fifth generation fighter. The machine is made inconspicuous, carries a developed complex of electronic systems, incl. all-round visibility, and is also capable of cruising supersonic flight and has other characteristic features.

By focusing on development issues, including the Phase XNUMX engine, RAND is effectively ignoring the fact that development work has been completed and the aircraft has entered serial production. The first production aircraft, unfortunately, crashed - but new ones will soon follow. All this points to unequivocal progress.

The situation with the expected export contracts is still uncertain, but there are reasons for positive forecasts. In particular, India's plans to build its own next-generation fighter seem overly optimistic - and in the end, India is likely to still have to buy Russian Su-57s. A number of other countries that want 5th generation equipment actually have no choice and are also potential clients of Russian aircraft manufacturers.

It should be admitted that in the current situation around the Su-57 fighter, not everything is smooth and simple, there are difficulties on some issues, and the need to continue work and improve the finished aircraft remains. However, all problems find their solution, and the project has already been brought to a series. There is every reason for optimism, and the credibility of publications such as Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft? falls.
Author:
Photos used:
RAND Corp., Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, UAC
45 comments
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  1. Shuttle
    Shuttle 28 September 2020 05: 00
    0
    Evaluation problems, economic problems ... - all these are external problems in relation to the Su-57 project. Not a problem with the plane itself.
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 28 September 2020 06: 42
      +1
      ... the plane crossed to the stage mass production

      He may have moved to the stage, but hardly to production.

      More than a year, how have the Su-57 been serially produced, and how many are there (of those serial)?
      If the series continues at such a speed, we will get exactly the same as with the Il-76 in Ulyanovsk. The failed contract of 2012 for 39 aircraft, which will no longer be fulfilled.
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 28 September 2020 21: 16
        -2
        But here it is customary to criticize the Pendos planes. Of course, what else to do when everyone is calving here, and the Pendos are already under the 5th generation.
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 28 September 2020 21: 26
          -1
          Quote: Ingvar 72
          But here it is customary to criticize the Pendos planes

          Interesting people .. it seems incredible how you can not see, hear, analyze and not understand that we are in a deep .. hole.
        2. Ka-52
          Ka-52 29 September 2020 07: 29
          0
          But here it is customary to criticize the Pendos planes

          Well, to criticize everything Russian here is you and your hop-team. So what kind of balance is there.
          1. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 29 September 2020 15: 49
            -2
            Quote: Ka-52
            to criticize everything Russian there is you

            Especially when criticism is critically scarce, right?
            1. Ka-52
              Ka-52 30 September 2020 05: 28
              +1
              Especially when criticism is critically scarce, right?

              is it important to you? After all, this is just an excuse. If this will not happen, you will find another. I have been reading the opuses of your local diaspora for a long time and I can certainly say that you are here, at VO, certainly not in order to objectively discuss the advantages, advantages or disadvantages of this or that type of weapon.
    2. The Siberian barber
      The Siberian barber 29 September 2020 11: 54
      +1
      Quote: Shuttle
      Evaluation problems, economic problems ... - all these are external problems in relation to the Su-57 project. Not a problem with the plane itself.

      In my opinion, problems not only of the economy, although your thesis, also has a place to be
      The big problem is in the "brain generation", if you like .. Beginning: killing the knowledge of the lower level - school ... and further, according to the list (
      We, "eating up" the heritage, do not create the prerequisites for the creation of scientific and technical progress, this is "annoying", and the creation of the SU is just a consequence
      Further it will be "more fun", alas, with SUCH approach to education
  2. Mikhail Zakharov
    Mikhail Zakharov 28 September 2020 05: 02
    +4
    will be similar to this and that, but as a result it will be like a charter checker of 1881 which is not convenient not to chop not to prick
    1. alexmach
      alexmach 28 September 2020 16: 14
      +2
      Is it not convenient to cut with a saber? In my opinion, something is wrong with this statement.
  3. Asad
    Asad 28 September 2020 05: 09
    0
    It seems to me that Turkey is so-so ,, partner ,,!
    1. BDRM 667
      BDRM 667 28 September 2020 05: 13
      +4
      Quote: ASAD
      It seems to me that Turkey is so-so ,, partner ,,!

      Don't you think ...
    2. Narak-zempo
      Narak-zempo 28 September 2020 07: 57
      -11 qualifying.
      Quote: ASAD
      It seems to me that Turkey is so-so ,, partner ,,!

      Quite a partner. Not like the dill bulb. Sovereign democracy, strong national leader - it's easy to find a common language.
      1. Temples
        Temples 28 September 2020 12: 02
        0
        Quote: Narak-zempo
        strong national leader

        He is possessed.
        Do not find?
        1. Narak-zempo
          Narak-zempo 28 September 2020 19: 33
          0
          Quote: Temples
          He is possessed.
          Do not find?

          No more demoniac than Kim Jong-un. And there are no ideal people, especially among politicians laughing
    3. The Siberian barber
      The Siberian barber 29 September 2020 12: 01
      0
      Quote: ASAD
      It seems to me that Turkey is so-so ,, partner ,,!

      "partner" for perverts, don't you think?)))
  4. Errr
    Errr 28 September 2020 06: 03
    +1
    From the text of the article:
    RAND recalls that the Su-57 has been in development since 2002 and is seen as a key element of defense exports. The first flight of such a machine took place more than 10 years ago, but it has not yet entered service with the Russian or foreign air forces.
    Well, wow, RAND reminds ... In fact, RAND apparently forgets that their vaunted F-22 "Raptor" rode from the first flight to the start of operation for more than 15 years! laughing Laughter ...
    1. FRoman1984
      FRoman1984 28 September 2020 06: 30
      -6
      Quote: Herrr
      From the text of the article:
      RAND recalls that the Su-57 has been in development since 2002 and is seen as a key element of defense exports. The first flight of such a machine took place more than 10 years ago, but it has not yet entered service with the Russian or foreign air forces.
      Well, wow, RAND reminds ... In fact, RAND apparently forgets that their vaunted F-22 "Raptor" rode from the first flight to the start of operation for more than 15 years! laughing Laughter ...

      I don't see anything funny.
      Rand writes that ours will not appear in 15 years, that is, in 2025 (with new, his engines).
      It was rightly said here that this is not an aircraft problem, but a problem of its production.
      Generally a slippery topic. There is practically no information on the aircraft, the progress of the tests, and there will be no problems. Therefore, only guess.
      1. Errr
        Errr 28 September 2020 06: 40
        +4
        Don't worry too much. There will be planes already under the current president and with engines of the second stage. This is practically a fact. smile
        1. Mountain shooter
          Mountain shooter 28 September 2020 08: 07
          0
          Quote: Herrr
          Don't worry too much. There will be planes already under the current president and with engines of the second stage. This is practically a fact.

          Your confidence assumes that you are close to information. Share?
          1. Errr
            Errr 28 September 2020 21: 50
            -2
            https://www.interfax.ru/russia/723023
            Serial deliveries of aircraft with new engines will begin in 2023.
        2. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 28 September 2020 21: 19
          -3
          Quote: Herrr
          There will be planes already under the current president

          Given the lifelong reign, it is far from certain that the planes will be soon.
          1. Errr
            Errr 28 September 2020 21: 50
            -2
            https://www.interfax.ru/russia/723023
            Serial deliveries of aircraft with new engines will begin in 2023.
            1. Ingvar 72
              Ingvar 72 28 September 2020 22: 09
              0
              Quote: Herrr
              With 2023

              We hear promises all the time, but then the dates are postponed to the right. It has been proven many times. Also, what series will these serial deliveries go?
        3. Svarog
          Svarog 28 September 2020 21: 40
          0
          Quote: Herrr
          Don't worry too much. There will be planes already under the current president and with engines of the second stage. This is practically a fact. smile

          The first flight took place in 2010 .. 10 years have passed .. 10 years .. So, your fact is not at all a fact .. like Armata and other breakthroughs .. Considering that the budget for armaments has been cut, and the economy is already stagnating year .. No one promises an economic miracle, and even on the contrary, Kremlin analysts say that you can forget about high oil prices .. So it's not a fact .. far from a fact ..
          1. Errr
            Errr 28 September 2020 21: 51
            -1
            https://www.interfax.ru/russia/723023
            Serial deliveries of aircraft with new engines will begin in 2023.
            1. FRoman1984
              FRoman1984 28 September 2020 22: 35
              +1
              Quote: Herrr
              https://www.interfax.ru/russia/723023
              Serial deliveries of aircraft with new engines will begin in 2023.

              "Do not read Soviet newspapers before breakfast"
        4. FRoman1984
          FRoman1984 28 September 2020 22: 33
          -2
          Quote: Herrr
          Don't worry too much. There will be planes already under the current president and with engines of the second stage. This is practically a fact. smile

          Well, our president, who was zeroed out, extended his reign with amendments, so yes, they may appear under him. The question is how long he will live and when he will be taken out.
      2. d4rkmesa
        d4rkmesa 28 September 2020 10: 38
        0
        “There is practically no information on the aircraft, the progress of the tests, and there will be no problems.” The information was available until the well-known informant was planted.
      3. Ka-52
        Ka-52 29 September 2020 07: 55
        +1
        Rand writes that ours will not appear in 15 years, that is, in 2025 (with new, his engines).

        the next "expert" mixed people, horses .... firstly, the plane itself is already there. The modernization of the propulsion system (even if it appeared in the design documentation) is a process that goes in parallel, not sequentially. The same situation was with the F-22 and its F119-PW-100, which was installed on the new car only 4 years after its first flight. Secondly, there is no need to confuse the concept of creating a combat vehicle and purchasing it by the Ministry of Defense for delivery to combat units.
  5. Mikhail Ya2
    Mikhail Ya2 28 September 2020 08: 20
    +7
    The first serial crashed in December. It's been 10 months and the next hasn't been released yet. Are they going to assemble 1,5 aircraft a year?
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 28 September 2020 15: 53
      +2
      The first production aircraft, unfortunately, crashed - but new ones will soon follow.
      This is how Ryabov, having incorrectly formulated the phrase, makes us believe that the first "crashed" will be followed by new ones! HORROR!!!
      The car is being adjusted, they are seriously working on avionics and engines. Again, armament and interfacing with the S-70 require new software.
      Therefore, we will not get excited, but let us look with a squint: WHAT WILL TURN OUT OF THIS TOTAL ... We and OFAR promised us the R-77K for 300 km and conquer the Himalayas too!
      1. Mikhail Ya2
        Mikhail Ya2 28 September 2020 21: 09
        0
        So what was the first production plane that crashed if, after the crash, they continue to work without releasing the next one?
  6. silberwolf88
    silberwolf88 28 September 2020 08: 41
    +3
    all such articles are pure marketing and promotion of their goods ... to sow deep doubts without directly denying the merits ... Americans still have enough problems with their 5th generation ... therefore, you need to remain the only ones who produce correctly, and primarily at the expense of media accompaniment ...
  7. bars1
    bars1 28 September 2020 10: 31
    +2
    On bmpd read the translation of this article by RAND, it's just the finish! All the powerful "analitics" of RAND in all its glory! In Ryabov's commentary, this "work" looks even more or less ... In general, this RAND office is greatly overrated.
    1. Errr
      Errr 29 September 2020 06: 02
      0
      Among the tags to the article you mentioned "RAND: Is the Su-57 Fifth Generation Fighter?" https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4148312.html, the last one is especially striking:
      Tags: f-35, India, PAK FA, Russia, USA, Su-57, Aviation, Avionics, slander laughing
  8. dauria
    dauria 28 September 2020 13: 36
    0
    A number of other countries that want 5th generation equipment actually have no choice and are also potential clients of Russian aircraft manufacturers.


    There is also China. With serious aircraft, and most importantly - industry and personnel. Those who cannot or do not want to buy Chinese will buy American.
    We are no longer able to donate weapons. And to make it cheap (according to the State Planning Commission and state prices), as before, too, will not work. Capitalism is like that. If you want meat in sausage - pay.
  9. _Ugene_
    _Ugene_ 28 September 2020 13: 47
    -3
    It is also noted that upon completion of development, the Russian fighter will combine the qualities of the 5 and 4+ generations, as a result of which it will be similar to both the F-35 and the F-15EX.
    I agree, but for us this is a breakthrough, but the fact that its mass production is under a very big question, like armata, is a fact, there is no money in the budget for modern expensive weapons, or rather they are, but to use them instead of social networks is to repeat sad experience of the USSR
  10. monster
    monster 28 September 2020 14: 05
    +1
    If you press hard on the Russians, hypersonic missiles, submarines, the latest tanks and aircraft begin to climb out of them
  11. ole1
    ole1 28 September 2020 14: 50
    0
    To be honest, we didn't learn anything new from the article ..
    1. iouris
      iouris 28 September 2020 15: 39
      -2
      And it's good: knowing the new is many sorrows.
  12. Turist1996
    Turist1996 28 September 2020 18: 45
    +2
    And now in the whole article we are changing the Su-57 to the F-22, deleting the F-35 in general from the representatives of the 5th generation fighter, because it is neither a fighter, nor a 5th generation in By virtue of our inferiority from birth, we wipe out any "tops" about dependence on energy prices and nonsense about COVID, and we get an excellent critical article about the current state of the military aircraft industry in the United States.
  13. Ka-52
    Ka-52 29 September 2020 08: 28
    +1
    and the credibility of posts like Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft? falls.

    the only balanced phrase in all the material. Only it would be worthwhile to speak out more categorically about this next spherokonin - you should not even read such yellow reading, aimed at an audience whose interests are evenly spaced between watching the NFL championship and eating hamburgers.
  14. Valero
    Valero 29 September 2020 19: 53
    0
    We wish you good luck in developing the new second stage engine.
    1. c2020
      c2020 20 November 2020 13: 42
      0
      We wish you good luck in developing the new second stage engine.

      Of course we will. Although no one asked me for help. With my help, a new second stage engine would have been made long ago. I love my job. Apparently the second stage engine is not really needed ...