Military Review

Don't make the crisis an icon

41

And we won't hand over the ruble, and we won't fall much



What predictions do Russians believe in? Alas, as a rule, they are negative, and certainly most of them do not believe in official forecasts. Although some of them, of course, are positive, I really want to believe. So, if not long ago they predicted a 5% decline, now we need to wait for a pullback of only 3,9%.

Such, perhaps the first in recent months, an encouraging forecast comes from the walls of the Ministry of Economic Development, where under any leaders they were not inclined to pessimism. However, the new head of this department, Maxim Reshetnikov, who replaced Elvira Nabiullina, Andrei Belousov, Alexei Ulyukaev (a noble inmate) and Maxim Oreshkin, seems to have surpassed everyone in terms of confidence in the future.

Don't make the crisis an icon

However, in order to change the forecasted decline rate, which will be fixed at the end of the year, from 5% to 3,9%, excessive efforts from Russian officials were clearly not required. The fact is that oil prices, contrary to all forecasts, including those from the Ministry of Economic Development, have consolidated above $ 40 per barrel.

And this is almost a quarter better than the marks that OPEC and the Russian Ministry of Energy outlined for themselves back in the spring. To write off another 0,1 percent is already a matter of technology. If only it was beautiful and more beautiful than that of developed countries, one of which, Germany, the Russian economy, as we are assured, has already left behind.

In fact, if Germany nevertheless decides to leave itself without Nord Stream 2, it may roll back from its current sixth place in the list of leaders in the world economy. But Russia's progress in this regard is somehow not very inspiring.

The feeling remains that our economy has lost less than others only because of its special structure, when in principle there is nothing to lose, except for an oil needle. Everything else, for example, the defense industry, space, metallurgy, the nuclear industry and the remnants of mechanical engineering, did not even slow down. Even at the time of the heroic (without a hint of irony) fight against the coronavirus.

There are a couple more nuances. Firstly, in Russia the service sector was not so badly affected, it was too underdeveloped to fall significantly, and the blow to tourism was less noticeable - the domestic one even grew significantly. Secondly, the transport sector has also suffered less than abroad due to the fact that it is focused mainly on its own market plus the EAEU countries.

Well, numerous assembly plants, which had to be slowed down due to a sharp drop in demand, are now making up for losses with surprising ease. Despite the fact that the demand, if it returned, it would only be for a short time out of quarantine. It is possible that work is in progress at the warehouse, counting on a strong surge in demand later.

However, by all indications, we should already forget about the recession. Unless, of course, a second powerful wave of the pandemic occurs and a new quarantine is required. The Ministry of Economic Development believes that in the next three years the Russian economy will grow above 3%.

But this is not the only optimism of Mr. Reshetnikov and his subordinates. They practically have no doubt that the real disposable income of citizens will decrease by only 3%, although it was assumed 3,8%. Strange numbers considering that the number of unemployed has increased sharply, for most of whom incomes have simply dropped significantly.

However, according to this indicator, the Economic Ministry categorically does not want to recognize the reality, speaking of 5,7%, just like in May. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for oil, which is actually prescribed to cost $ 41,8 per barrel, is also quite optimistic. However, it is prescribed solely to make it easier for officials to make their calculations.

Confession of Senator Kalashnikov


However, the most surprising thing begins when the Ministry of Economic Development begins to make forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, for which, in fact, they are not responsible. Neither by law, nor in terms of the ability to somehow influence him.

Not paying any attention to the statements of the heads of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank that a too strong ruble is now unprofitable for our economy, Mr. Reshetnikov's department is simply waiting for the ruble to strengthen to 71,2 rubles / dollar. Against the euro, the ruble should strengthen to about 82-84 rubles, although given the prospect of a complete failure of the dollar, it could be even more.

It is characteristic that both the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance now prefer to remain silent about the fate of the ruble, realizing that for a number of reasons, everything can change very much at any moment. Meanwhile, there are those who want to express their real concern for the fate of our "oil" and "wood".

And they are not just anywhere, but in the upper house of the Russian parliament. So, Senator Kalashnikov, the representative of the Bryansk region in the Federation Council, does not predict anything good for the ruble. He is a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, and accordingly, he is not at all obliged to radiate duty optimism, following the example of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.


It was Sergei Kalashnikov who was perhaps the first among those who are invested with real power to make a terrible prediction that by the end of the year the euro could rise in price to 100 rubles. From the lips of the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, such an assumption simply cannot but be heard. Moreover, the senator directly linked his forecast with the Navalny case.

The Western media's pressure on Russia on this topic continues to grow, despite all the contradictions in the testimony and assessment of events. In this regard, the prospect of another tightening of sanctions cannot be ruled out, which was pointed out by the respected legislator from the Bryansk region.

According to Sergei Kalashnikov, the possible sharp weakening of the Russian currency is almost entirely due to external aspects. According to him, quoted by the circulation "Moskovsky Komsomolets",

We are talking about the risks of introducing new sanctions against our country, associated with the reaction of the West to the recent events around Alexei Navalny and Belarus.


"Therefore, work is underway to lower the ruble exchange rate," Sergei Kalashnikov has no doubts. The authors fully agree with him. From the point of view of liberal economists, who have been running the show for many years, "the weaker the ruble, the more the state has revenues from foreign exchange exports, the easier it is to cover the budget deficit."

Meanwhile, the position of the Russian financial authorities also speaks in favor of the fact that the senator's extremely negative forecast may well come true. The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, both through the lips of their leaders and in official releases and documents, regularly make it clear that an excessively strong ruble is now unprofitable for our economy.


Let's not hide our doubts that defining the ruble as “too strong” looks like a clear stretch. Let's just note that the next devaluation of the national currency may turn out to be much more dangerous than the current stagnation in the economy.

It is no coincidence that the same Sergey Kalashnikov drew attention to the fact that the strengthening of the euro will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of food, "since the percentage of imported products on the shelves of our stores is high." And to warm up the economy in a stable ruble and low inflation can be done at the expense of completely different means.

And in the first place should be both large-scale borrowings and the printing of an emergency reserve, which was created precisely to deal with all kinds of crises. The pose of the "dog in the manger", which the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation occupies with enviable persistence, should now be regarded as an open challenge.

You cannot spend anything from the reserves on retirement, on investments too, but on investments in the securities of competitors who continue to put pressure on us with sanctions "for no reason" is possible.
Author:
Photos used:
dp.ru, properm.ru, soyuzveche.ru
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  1. Stas157
    Stas157 17 September 2020 05: 57 New
    14
    ... the hopeful forecast comes from the walls of the Ministry of Economic Development, where, under any leaders were not prone to pessimism.

    So this is a common trend of our officials! Putting a good face on a bad game. All of them are complete optimists, which seems to be not bad. But this is at odds with reality, which is completely unpleasant. And these gentlemen never fulfill their promises regarding improvements in the economy and the lives of ordinary citizens. Therefore, their trend for optimism is always and in everything - complete bullshit and noodles for the gullible electorate.
    1. Far B
      Far B 17 September 2020 06: 09 New
      20
      Noodles have been our everything in recent decades. "Macaroshki always cost the same."
      Although some of them, of course, are positive, I really want to believe. So, if until recently we were predicted a 5% decline, now we need to wait for a pullback of only 3,9%
      This is a pancake, cho - an example of a positive forecast, or what ??? "Positive pullback of 3,9%" is like "sustained negative growth"!
      However, the most surprising thing begins when the Ministry of Economic Development begins to make forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, for which, in fact, they are not responsible
      And they in the Ministry of Economic Development, along the way, are not responsible for anything at all - not for the ruble exchange rate, not for words, not for development, not for the economy. They just sit and radiate optimism. No, cho, the guys settled down normally: warm chairs, good money.
      too strong ruble is now unprofitable for our economy
      But this game is already in my teeth, honestly. Every time the ruble collapses, we are sung this song - "too strong a ruble is unprofitable for our economy." Is it advantageous for us to have an economy based on constant ruble collapses?
      And in the first place should be both large-scale borrowing and the printing of an emergency reserve, which was created just to deal with all kinds of crises.
      Borrowing nafig is not needed if your anti-crisis deposits are above the roof. Only no one will print them, the underquarantine has fully demonstrated this.
      You cannot spend anything from the reserves on retirement, on investments too, but on investments in the securities of competitors who continue to put pressure on us with sanctions "it is not clear why"
      Generally a strange conclusion.
      1. nnm
        nnm 17 September 2020 07: 03 New
        +6
        Only no one will print them

        Already. 3.6 billion were withdrawn in August alone
        https://minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=37171-informatsionnoe_soobshchenie_o_rezultatakh_razmeshcheniya_sredstv_fonda_natsionalnogo_blagosostoyaniya
        1. Far B
          Far B 17 September 2020 08: 23 New
          +3
          3.6 billion were withdrawn in August alone
          On the scale of Russia, even in one month, this amount in the anti-crisis sense is nothing. Imagine that you are eating the last carrot without salt, you will be thrown an onion ring to this carrot - will it become much easier to live?
          And then, "withdrawn" is not yet "put into action." From these "withdrawn" muliards will definitely be returned as undeveloped. Because that is how the system works.
          1. nnm
            nnm 17 September 2020 08: 29 New
            +1
            No, "return" is definitely not about us))) Yes, and the procedure for deducting this does not provide for this. What has fallen is lost.
        2. depressant
          depressant 17 September 2020 10: 29 New
          11
          Colleague nnm, after all, the total corporate debt suddenly turned out to be equal to the moneybox!
          $ 600 billion!
          How does it feel? Given that all more or less large corporations include the state, the state will have to pay. Because these same corporations include foreigners. First, take them out and put them in dividends, but they don't want to pay the debts out of their own pockets. Otherwise, the sacred cows will go to another pasture. Nabiullina was stuttering, they say, let's not pay dividends this year, but what is there!
          And our even more sacred cows - oligarchs - do not want to pay their debts. Both of them twisted the hands of the participant-state, but it, having burst into tears, succumbed. So it was all the past years. That is why there is a "negative growth" in case of smoothly operating currency suction to offshore companies.
          Therefore, $ 3, 6 billion taken out of the box is the payment of corporate debts. The population is unlikely to receive anything.
          He, the population, is preparing to raise taxes. To fill the budget, as Peskov explained this morning. So that he, the population, and pay salaries and pensions. Again, benefits. Distribution of money within the population itself. Self-help, so to speak.
      2. Lexus
        Lexus 17 September 2020 10: 34 New
        +8
        Every time the ruble collapses, we are sung this song - "too strong a ruble is unprofitable for our economy." Is it advantageous for us to have an economy based on constant ruble collapses?

        hi Not us, but "them". The volume of goods produced is falling, and the amounts for which they were sold to the "settlers" are growing. "Growth" of the economy according to the "recipes" of the Zimbabwean "quintillionaries".

        invested with real power, made a terrible forecast that by the end of the year the euro could rise in price to 100 rubles

        Only "patented not ... economists" broadcast that inflation, i.e. the impoverished population is "karasho". The main thing is that they, the bourgeoisie, are "fat" and do not care about the rest. yes

      3. podymych
        23 September 2020 13: 40 New
        0
        https://topwar.ru/user/Дальний+В/
        The latter is by no means the conclusion of the authors, sorry, but the thesis about the position of our authorities - this is how they manage and want to continue to dispose of "our" money.
    2. Civil
      Civil 17 September 2020 07: 23 New
      14
      Who's to blame? Offhand options:
      1. Incompetent government? Whose composition has not fundamentally changed for decades?
      2. The West, which is about to attack and drop the ruble, but buys raw materials?
      3. China? Has he thrown our banks and is also massively buying up raw materials that have fallen in price due to the fall of the ruble?
      4. The people who yelled GOOOOOOL when they were cheaply put on pension reform? And now normal men are guaranteed not to live to see retirement. Not counting the thieves.

      It is necessary to find the culprit first, well, it is clear that people will pay for all flights and shoals. But at least try to punish so that it was discouraging.
      1. tatra
        tatra 17 September 2020 10: 33 New
        +4
        The enemies of the communists who seized Russia initially created a System in which there will always be only degradation, impoverishment of Russia, impoverishment and extinction of the Russian / Russian people. They, categorically refusing to take responsibility for their seizure of Russia, that is, for the country and the people, for everything that they did with the country and the people, redistributed the incomes of the country and the people in their favor, proved that they are not capable of developing the country, are not capable and do not want to make money for the country and the people.
        1. Aag
          Aag 23 September 2020 17: 01 New
          0
          Quote: tatra
          The enemies of the communists who seized Russia initially created a System in which there will always be only degradation, impoverishment of Russia, impoverishment and extinction of the Russian / Russian people. They, categorically refusing to take responsibility for their seizure of Russia, that is, for the country and the people, for everything that they did with the country and the people, redistributed the incomes of the country and the people in their favor, proved that they are not capable of developing the country, are not capable and do not want to make money for the country and the people.

          IMHO: You have interesting thoughts ... But, really, if the commentary begins with the phrase "enemies of the communists" - I recognize you .. Can we try more constructively?
      2. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 17 September 2020 11: 38 New
        +3
        Quote: Civil
        We need to find the culprit first

        we must first come up with laws, decide on the economic direction, give ideology legally firing force, appoint judges, etc. After all, from a legal point of view, there is no violation of the law
    3. Svarog
      Svarog 17 September 2020 07: 44 New
      12
      You cannot spend anything from the reserves on retirement, on investments too, but on investments in the securities of competitors who continue to put pressure on us with sanctions "for no reason" is possible.

      Well, whose are they? Ours or theirs ... the answer is obvious, for the layman there is a fierce struggle with an external enemy, but in fact, they support this enemy with rubles and raw materials ...
      1. Lexus
        Lexus 17 September 2020 10: 53 New
        +8
        Well, whose are they? Ours or theirs ..

        hi They are the "six" of the world financial organized crime group. And slaves to their insatiable gut.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 17 September 2020 06: 04 New
    17
    smile Against the background of such statements, it is not at ease to recall, the decline of perestroika and the dawn of democracy, when the fathers of economic reforms declared that the ruble, as a result of the reforms, would be the most, most, line up for the ruble, but in the end it turns out that a strong ruble is not needed And remember this topic, selling resources for rubles. Did you sell a lot of gas and oil for rubles? Germany, avoided, buying up rubles ...
  3. apro
    apro 17 September 2020 06: 14 New
    13
    The crisis ... I don’t think. Under this frightening definition. You can cram anything ... and most importantly it slips away. The rich get richer ... the poor get poorer and get poor by all means. And do not defend their interests. wonder ... they will lose everything or something will remain.
  4. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 17 September 2020 06: 19 New
    +6
    Words, words, words ... There are many of them, they are different. The Russian language is rich.
    But why do you have to say them, invent excuses, make forecasts? After all, it seems that people are working, we are extracting oil and gas, we are increasing the gold and foreign exchange reserves. And we're getting poorer. We are ordinary people. How did it all start?
    And then I remember the movie "New Adventures of the Elusive".
    Remember how Ovechkin, performed by Dzhigarkhanyan, laid out billiard balls - 1,9,1,4 and spoke thoughtfully about the tragic date? So here it was repeated with a cyclical nature of a hundred years.
    1. Arthur73
      Arthur73 17 September 2020 06: 58 New
      +3
      What happened in 2014 in Russia?
      1. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 17 September 2020 07: 03 New
        0
        Play it off.
    2. kepmor
      kepmor 17 September 2020 07: 04 New
      10
      it was repeated earlier ... after 77 years, at the end of 1991 ...
      and in April 2014 the banker "byuhgalter" simply reminded someone who is who in this life ...
      and this someone abruptly "turned on the back" ... it did not help ... they raked it in full ... Central Bank ...
      and all these forecasts with figures for the delight of our lop-eared population ... the tsar is not sad and to the bucklers to dissolve nothing ...
      all the people rejoice and rejoice ...
    3. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 17 September 2020 07: 28 New
      +5
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      Remember how Ovechkin, performed by Dzhigarkhanyan, laid out billiard balls - 1,9,1,4 and spoke thoughtfully about the tragic date?

      Of course we remember! wassat We even know that it is impossible to lay out a combination of billiard balls: 1,9,1,4 even with a great desire and in deep thought. Balls are not numbered.
  5. sergo1914
    sergo1914 17 September 2020 06: 38 New
    +2
    The main thing is that the Pechenegs and Polovtsy and all sorts of other Khazars do not pass.
  6. Stas157
    Stas157 17 September 2020 06: 51 New
    +6
    definition to the ruble “too strong"Looks like a clear stretch.

    And I would say, like a blatant lie. The rate of 75 full-weight rubles for the "unfortunate" dollar. It is called too strong? Before that, that the ruble was weaker? At the beginning of this year, the wooden one in the 60-65 corridor was bargaining, and now it is falling to the very bottom. But, to be honest, the ruble cannot find this bottom, in its stable and endless fall below.
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 17 September 2020 07: 47 New
      +8
      The rate of 75 full-weight rubles for the "unfortunate" dollar. Is this called too strong?

      25% for 9 months wooden has depreciated ..
  7. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 17 September 2020 06: 59 New
    +7
    Not paying any attention to the statements of the heads of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank that a too strong ruble is now unprofitable for our economy, Mr. Reshetnikov's department is simply waiting for the ruble to strengthen to 71,2 rubles / dollar.

    To begin with, Mr. Reshetnikov would need to understand the percentage of Russian goods and services provided for rubles and goods and services that appear only when the reserve currencies rustle in the consumer basket.
    And forecasts can be made when more than half is purchased for rubles.
    Among other things, it would be high time to introduce the responsibility of officials for the words spoken and the laws adopted. Otherwise, this vicious practice of shifting responsibility to socialism in a single USSR, to sanctions, to a pandemic, gives only negative emotions and deplorable results.
  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. nikvic46
    nikvic46 17 September 2020 07: 02 New
    +3
    Many people are now talking about raising tobacco taxes. Apparently a hot topic. And the money received from the promotion will be used for social needs. One is not taken into account. Every person, starting with the simple and ending with the rich, has the phrase, "I will not get out of the budget." That is, you can smoke and cheaper. And they will get what they received before. And as for the ruble, it all depends on the mood of the financial elite.
    1. bober1982
      bober1982 17 September 2020 07: 23 New
      +2
      Quote: nikvic46
      That is, you can smoke and cheaper

      You yourself smoke, tobacco, of course I mean?
    2. Doctor
      Doctor 17 September 2020 07: 24 New
      0
      Many people are now talking about raising tobacco taxes. Apparently a hot topic. And the money received from the promotion will be used for social needs. One is not taken into account. Every person, starting with the simple and ending with the rich, has the phrase, "I will not get out of the budget." That is, you can smoke and cheaper. And they will get what they received before. And as for the ruble, it all depends on the mood of the financial elite.


      I recalled a bearded man:

      - Dad, they raised the price of vodka, now you will drink less!
      - No, son, you will eat less!

      laughing
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 17 September 2020 07: 04 New
    +8
    Do not read the arguments of our officials either in the morning or at night, you goat ... a hundred, not so, do not trample your brain and digestion !!!
  11. nnm
    nnm 17 September 2020 07: 14 New
    +7
    I was always surprised by the love for solving the problems of filling the budget and at the expense of the weakening of the ruble. Judging by the well-known statement by Putin that it is even useful, this idea stuck at the very top.
    In fact, this is simply the easiest way to portray the "beauty" of macroeconomic indicators. Say, look, there is a crisis around, and we are such great fellows - the budget is with a surplus, and pensions are paid, and state employees receive their salaries. But in fact, this means that we do not heal our economy, but moreover the problems from ourselves. It is as if in a hospital patients with a temperature of 38 Celsius are told every day that today is 39-normal, tomorrow-40. And say that a man with his 38 is healthy. As a result, the patient will go to the morgue.
    1. vladimirvn
      vladimirvn 17 September 2020 09: 42 New
      +2
      It's like a bloodletting treatment until the patient stretches his legs laughing
  12. Livonetc
    Livonetc 17 September 2020 07: 54 New
    -4
    Kalashnikov is an outstanding world economic expert.
    He drew conclusions based on the situation with Navalny!
    He is already quoted by Moskovsky Komsomolets!
    There are still prophets in their own country.
    We begin to whine nervously and buy up foreign currencies ...
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 17 September 2020 12: 40 New
      +4
      Quote: Livonetc
      We begin to whine nervously and buy up foreign currencies ...

      I already bought it, dear. I took 68 more. And you know, I don’t regret it!
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 17 September 2020 12: 42 New
        +2
        It is right.
        One should not regret what he did in his right mind and sober memory.
        Most importantly, you should never fuss.
        1. Ross xnumx
          Ross xnumx 18 September 2020 04: 15 New
          +1
          Quote: Livonetc
          One should not regret what he did in his right mind and sober memory.

          What is left for us? In some other country, citizens try to keep their savings in national currency, and the sick imagination and “sober frenzy” of our officials and legislators forces us to dodge and adapt in any way.
  13. Woodman
    Woodman 17 September 2020 07: 58 New
    -1
    You cannot spend anything from the reserves on retirement, on investments too, but on investments in the securities of competitors who continue to put pressure on us with sanctions "for no reason" is possible.
    Somehow, in the whole article there is not a word about pensions or investments, but the conclusion is - here it is ...
    In general, if the leader does not radiate optimism for his subordinates, then this is not a leader, but a misunderstanding. All subordinates will scatter if the boss constantly whines about how bad everything is. Here the higher management needs to report how it really is, and for the rest - "radiate optimism."
    And in this case:
    the new head of this department, Maxim Reshetnikov, seems to have surpassed everyone in terms of confidence in the future.

    Sergei Kalashnikov was perhaps the first among those who are invested with real power to make a terrible prediction that by the end of the year the euro could rise in price to 100 rubles. From the lips of the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, such an assumption simply cannot but be heard.
    it is Kalashnikov who is wrong in making a public statement. In fact, those who have something to lose will run to exchange rubles for dollars and euros and, thereby, contribute to the implementation of this forecast. What is not good.
    But wildly it is much easier for me - there is nothing to carry to the exchanger, and I heard forecasts like "a dollar for 100" even before "the economy was torn to shreds."
  14. Daniil Konovalenko
    Daniil Konovalenko 17 September 2020 08: 11 New
    +1
    Well, let's relax and breathe in optimism once again. smile
  15. g1washntwn
    g1washntwn 17 September 2020 08: 31 New
    -3
    The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a record drop in the US economy in the second quarter - by almost 33% in terms of annual rates. The recession has canceled out all economic growth since 2015

    Read more at RBC:
    https://www.rbc.ru/economics/30/07/2020/5f22bc5d9a79475c618f3376


    And who is there "torn to shreds"? And I thought I'd have to help fall, but it fell by itself.
    Or vice versa .... globalists educate the world economy in this way, they say, if we sneeze, your houses will crumble all over the planet.
  16. Rostislav
    Rostislav 17 September 2020 09: 02 New
    -4
    the strengthening of the euro will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of food, "since there is a large percentage of imported products on the shelves of our stores."

    It may lead to a rise in price, it may give an additional impetus to the development of its agricultural production and lead to an increase in the share of Russian products on the shelves of our stores, as it already happened after the imposition of the embargo.
    1. Essex62
      Essex62 17 September 2020 18: 54 New
      0
      Perhaps it won't get any worse with food, and it will give a boost. But man does not live by bread alone. Almost all high-quality consumer goods have a foreign exchange component and, of course, the heavier currency will drag ruble prices with it.
      This has happened more than once or twice.
      1. evgen1221
        evgen1221 18 September 2020 05: 23 New
        0
        Plus, do not forget about the Russian people's fun-outbid on outbid, the interest is thrown, in total, the prices for takeoff.