Military Review

Goodbye America. Is there a future for the nuclear deal?

21
Goodbye America. Is there a future for the nuclear deal?

Who doesn't believe Tehran



The United States lost the right to renew UN sanctions against Tehran, as it voluntarily pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Nuclear Action Plan. This statement was made in Vienna by the Secretary General of the EU Foreign Service Helga Schmid.

More like an obsession, Washington’s desire to impose sanctions on Tehran on anyone is already annoying too many. Helga Schmid's statement was supported by representatives of Iran, Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, France, that is, all participants in the well-known nuclear deal and the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA).

In unison with the European functionaries, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov also spoke. He recalled that the JCPOA participants did not recognize the legitimacy of launching a mechanism for restoring UN sanctions against Iran. Not long before that, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo limited himself to a simple notification to the UN Security Council about the restoration of US sanctions against Iran, which will take effect in 30 days.


Among other things, Washington is ready to extend for 13 years weapons embargo and introduce a ban on uranium enrichment, without taking into account the feasibility of such restrictions. The Americans seem to be particularly worried that Iran may receive Russian air defense systems, but it is not entirely clear how to implement the sanctions in practice.

As you know, negotiations with Iran on the limitation of its nuclear program were conducted for a very long time. As a result, in 2015, a Joint Comprehensive Action Plan was signed, which actually translated all Iranian developments on a peaceful track.

The treaty was then signed by seven countries. Apart from Iran, these are the USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany. The "nuclear deal," which then US President Barack Obama said was "eagerly awaited by the whole world," limited the development of Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the gradual lifting of UN Security Council sanctions from the Islamic Republic of Iran.


According to the JCPOA, Tehran allowed IAEA observers to visit the country's nuclear facilities for 25 years. Almost all the enriched uranium was ordered to be exported from Iran. Subsequently, the export of nuclear materials was tightly regulated. The maximum permissible level of atomic fuel enrichment was also established, which excluded the possibility of creating atomic weapons in Iran.

Donald Trump, for whom it was fundamentally important to get rid of the legacy of the "democrat", even during his election program called the nuclear deal "a decaying rotten structure." In the second year of his rule, the new master of the White House made sure that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA treaty.

The motivation turned out to be very dubious: supposedly the "plan" is not enough, more precisely, poorly regulates the development and containment of Iran's nuclear program. Such an open distrust of the IAEA specialists, who invariably admitted that Iran does not violate the terms of the JCPOA, could not find understanding from the US partners in the deal.

Most likely, this is precisely why, and also simply due to the fact that Washington did not even consider it necessary to hold at least preliminary consultations, not only Russia and China, but also the European participants: Great Britain, France and Germany, almost immediately refused to withdraw from the deal.

This, of course, did not prevent, and could not prevent the United States from restoring some sanctions against Iran and even introducing new ones. However, then a whole series of attempts followed to spread their own initiative to the whole world. In Washington, where they already got involved in trade and sanctions wars with everyone with whom it was only possible and impossible, they literally wanted to continue.

The United States began to seek an extension of the arms embargo against Iran not just anywhere, but in the UN Security Council. Experience shows that the American practice of independent economic pressure on competitors is not working well. That is why Washington regularly tries to act through the channels of NATO, various international associations, where it occupies leading positions, and, finally, through the UN.

In principle, in cases where a potential threat to the established world order does occur, this works. And it works even if Moscow or Beijing impose their veto in the Security Council. The powerful press of public opinion is sometimes very important, although Tehran almost never paid attention to this.

West will help us


Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly, in virtually every "atomic exacerbation" in Washington, noted that the United States is doing everything possible not to be bound by any multilateral obligations, and this is evidenced by Washington's position on extraterritorial sanctions.

Russia and China have invariably adhered to a pragmatic line with regard to Iran's nuclear program, relying on the data of the control measures carried out by the IAEA. As you know, before the US withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018, Tehran strictly complied with all the conditions. Only on May 8, 2019, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that Tehran was suspending part of its obligations under the nuclear deal.


Most likely, the partner's long-term and strict adherence to the standards of the nuclear deal, combined with the prospects for broad cooperation in the nuclear industry, influenced the position of other JCPOA participants: France, Great Britain and Germany. In fact, the US withdrawal from the agreements simply led to the fact that instead of the “6 plus 1” format, there is now “5 plus 1”.

In turn, the Iranian leadership has also always been guided exclusively by pragmatic interests. Favorable - unprofitable, and nothing else, although in the case of the JCPOA, as you know, Tehran still had to come to terms with extremely specific and rather strict restrictions.

In principle, Tehran's decision of May 8, 2019 changed little in the nuclear deal itself, since there was no talk of the creation of atomic weapons in the country. At present, Iran has only tried to free its hands in terms of fulfilling obligations to return atomic materials to the disposal of the IAEA, as well as in terms of the volume of materials with a higher degree of uranium enrichment.

This allows Iran to move faster in the development of non-military nuclear technologies, mainly related to energy and medicine. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that, by "releasing" Tehran from its obligations under the JCPOA, Washington is actually giving it carte blanche to work on the military atom.

The last attempt by the US administration to promote at least some measures in the UN against such an intractable opponent as Iran was made by the US administration in August, when the election campaign began to gather momentum. The proposal was made, as they say, to the maximum: to restore the old sanctions in full.

In this regard, one cannot but recall that the agreements on the JCPOA were reached during the reign of Barack Obama. Democrats generally regard them as one of the key elements of the legacy of the black owner of the White House, which Donald Trump destroyed somewhere, but in some ways was simply squandered.

Most likely, Washington did not expect anything else, but most members of the UN Security Council did not support the US attempt to restore sanctions against Iran. The first "no" was sounded on August 14, the second - on the 25th. Confirmation followed on the first day of autumn.

After a short pause, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov commented on the situation the day before:

“We are witnessing an important process of consolidation of the JCPOA participants in positions of rejection of this American venture. And we are confident that the results of today's event will help our colleagues in New York to work in the right direction. "
Author:
Photos used:
pikabu.ru, media.spokesman.com, cdn.bfm.ru
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  1. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 4 September 2020 18: 08 New
    +2
    The USA & Israel will separately put pressure on countries, possible suppliers of weapons and sophisticated equipment to Iran. And oil buyers from Iran.
  2. Mordvin 3
    Mordvin 3 4 September 2020 18: 22 New
    -1
    And we are confident that the results of today's event will help our colleagues in New York to work in the right direction. "

    Here you go ... You just have to go to the bathhouse with American friends.
  3. RUnnm
    RUnnm 4 September 2020 18: 37 New
    +1
    I am far from possessing all the geostrategic knowledge for a correct assessment, but I will say from the point of view of a simple layman.
    The United States will continue to develop and install dual-use carriers, deploy them around our borders, if they are held back by some point, they will easily withdraw from the agreement, and by that time we will have lost the relevance of developments, industrial potential, as with Barguzin, the United States will habitually delay the destruction of restricted media / warheads, etc., and we do everything inside and out.
    Not to mention the development of this topic in China. Therefore, I think that such agreements are not needed for Russia. We must ourselves form the doctrine of the application of Yao, taking into account the new circumstances and calmly, to the best of our ability to implement it.
    1. Sergey Averchenkov
      Sergey Averchenkov 4 September 2020 19: 03 New
      +1
      We will not lose anything. Behind us is the country, 150 million 150 and one more is me, old already, but still me. :)
      1. RUnnm
        RUnnm 4 September 2020 19: 21 New
        +2
        And where is our modern "Oka", where are our new analogues "Scalpel" BZHRK, etc.? You can't just say that we are the smartest, coolest and most inimitable and expect that the next day the labor dynasties of high-class workers will be restored, unique engineers and modern equipment will appear. It collapses almost instantly, but all this is created over the years.
        1. Sergey Averchenkov
          Sergey Averchenkov 4 September 2020 21: 21 New
          0
          But I'm still alive. I’m not praising myself, but those who created are still alive ... what do you think, where did modern weapons development come from? Probably from the USSR?
          1. RUnnm
            RUnnm 4 September 2020 21: 23 New
            +1
            Like me ... but my friend, a smart mathematician, went to MIT to teach, the eldest raised from military factories went to work in Moscow as builders, the vocational school was closed, the factories remained in ruins ...
            We need to start everything from 0. To raise everything from the beginning. But who needs it ..
            1. Sergey Averchenkov
              Sergey Averchenkov 4 September 2020 21: 51 New
              0
              I am very sorry that you have such a friend. I have not yet traveled all over Russia, have not been to the Far East, and I have not been to the Crimea either. Something like this - you plan everything, you plan and the end result is nothing. I'll start next year. I always tell myself that.
              1. RUnnm
                RUnnm 4 September 2020 21: 57 New
                +2
                And I was in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and in Sevastopol. But I do not blame my friend, who fled the country at 90. Although in 2014 he just interrupted our communication so that there were no questions for him. I live in my country, I live with its problems and victories, and if someone turned out to be weak, then I am sorry that I could not support him at that moment. And therefore, friend, we will live, raise children and raise our Russia ...
  4. antivirus
    antivirus 4 September 2020 19: 00 New
    0
    consolidation----------------------------------------------
    all against no one. different workarounds do everything in silence
  5. Imperial Technocrat
    Imperial Technocrat 4 September 2020 20: 03 New
    +1
    No. The Rockefellers of Trump and the Stalinists of Iran are fierce enemies. Also, in November, the US civil war and disintegration
  6. Old26
    Old26 4 September 2020 20: 26 New
    +2
    Quote: RUnnm
    And where is our modern "Oka", where are our new analogues "Scalpel" BZHRK, etc.? You can't just say that we are the smartest, coolest and most inimitable and expect that the next day the labor dynasties of high-class workers will be restored, unique engineers and modern equipment will appear. It collapses almost instantly, but all this is created over the years.

    Iskander is the modern version of Oka. New analogs of BZHRK - and they are needed with modern computer support for railway traffic? Moreover, in the number of ONE division, as they plan to deploy. The way to saw billions and billions of rubles is what a modern-day BZHRK is.
  7. Avior
    Avior 4 September 2020 20: 40 New
    +1
    An ambiguous situation.
    The states withdrew from the agreement, but Iran cannot really withdraw, since there are five remaining signatories.
    1. Trapp1st
      Trapp1st 5 September 2020 15: 13 New
      0
      but Iran really can't get out
      tried to free their hands in terms of fulfilling obligations to return atomic materials to the disposal of the IAEA, as well as in terms of the volume of materials with a higher degree of uranium enrichment.
      At this stage, it is enough for him, a pragmatist, he will need more, will try.
  8. Warrior MorePhoto
    Warrior MorePhoto 4 September 2020 21: 17 New
    0
    It's all about China, if he agrees and sits down at the table, there will be an extension.
    The same is the INF Treaty.
    China is the most powerful military power (it has become now), in 5-10 years they will be able to swallow it without chewing, not only America understands this, but also we.
    1. Trapp1st
      Trapp1st 5 September 2020 15: 15 New
      0
      It's all about China, if he agrees and sits down at the table
      China said that it is not against it as soon as the potentials for nuclear weapons are leveled, and any method of equalization is acceptable. But the mattress covers are cunning, we must consider the deal as NATO + the most cunning / Russia + China. It will be more correct.
  9. Eug
    Eug 4 September 2020 21: 24 New
    0
    Everything goes to the fact that Russia will be turned off the light (that is, SWIFT, operations with the Russian state debt will be banned earlier, and this will hit Trump a lot, because there is a lot of money from pension funds). As for me, if this boomerang is launched, America will roll on rather quickly, even very close allies will not understand this.
    1. Brturin
      Brturin 5 September 2020 13: 32 New
      0
      Quote: Eug
      that Russia will turn off the light ... (I mean SWIFT ... even very close allies will not understand this

      They are already allies - either voting in the UN, then creating their own analogue for trade with Iran, back in March - the Foreign Ministry of the Federal Republic of Germany - "France, Germany and the United Kingdom confirm that the first transaction was successfully carried out through INSTEX, which made it possible to export medical goods from Europe to Iran. These goods arrived in Iran. " The only question is how far these "allies" are ready to go far in their "disobedience" ....
  10. tralflot1832
    tralflot1832 4 September 2020 22: 46 New
    0
    Magate seems to be loyal to Iran, so he substitutes himself. We found that Iran has an excess of uranium reserves. So there China beats like a hoof, with its 150 billion investments. And Europe also needs a market, especially with Boeing planes, to finish off. Boeing has not only problems 737 but unexpectedly with a flying "port bag" three 7s arose. Airbus also really wants to get into Iran. hi
  11. NF68
    NF68 5 September 2020 16: 24 New
    0
    In recent years, the United States has shown too frankly that for them no previously reached agreements and agreements mean anything, and the United States, under any pretext convenient for them, can refuse everything that it considers necessary at a given time.
  12. Outsider
    Outsider 11 September 2020 00: 05 New
    -1
    - These Euro-proprietors today pacify Iran in the same way as in Munich in 1938, their grandfathers pacified Hitler. The result will be identical ...