The dismemberment of Russia will begin in the Far East
An employee of the Russian analytical agency, on condition of anonymity, shared the results of a study on short-term development of Russia based on open statistical data and public information sources. We give the conversation in the editorial with some abbreviations.
Why did you decide to tell everyone about this study? The information probably was not intended to make public?
- This is a personal decision. I want more people to know about the results of the analysis.
Have you been told who is the main customer?
Of course not. The client is a little-known foreign company, behind which there is obviously a more serious player. After talking with our foreign colleagues in the course of work, we realized that works like ours are being conducted in parallel by numerous research groups not only in Russia, but also in other countries of the world. Such an organization can afford to afford, freely having very large sums, the order - hundreds of millions of dollars. It can be assumed that the customer is the level of the presidential administration of Russia or the US State Department.
What new could you find out during your work?
- On this subject, lately there has been a mass of research of various institutions, a huge number of publications in the media. Comparing the information field over the past three years, we saw that the total amount of information was almost two times higher than the figures of the previous three years. Analyzing information flows, we saw completely new trends and patterns. Know this when solitaire begins to converge. Completely disparate facts suddenly began to fit into chains leading to the same goal.
Can you list the reference points, key events, showing the process that leads to this goal?
- All the facts are hundreds of pages of analysis, I will give the most vivid examples.
America 20 did not let us go to the WTO for years, but now it suddenly agreed.
Yanukovych preoccupied with the Russian language. They passed the law, and Ukraine immediately began to shake.
London processes with oligarchs - they create the necessary background for pressure on owners. In Russia, there is not a single independent oligarch. But in any “Russian” London any oligarch at any moment will be presented with an ultimatum - either you are for “freedom and democracy”, or your property is confiscated, as if acquired by criminal means. These people are not difficult to force to give billions to finance the collapse of Russia.
Now foreign investments in the territory from the Urals to Chukotka do not go, because in Russia there is a “bad investment climate”. As soon as the power independent from Moscow appears there, the climate will immediately become “favorable”, and the “London” capital will rush in there with the river.
A new memorable date has appeared in Russia - Russian Victory Day fleet over the Turkish fleet in the battle of Chesme, July 7. Why is this needed? Who remembers this Chesme two and a half centuries ago? A certain part of the Russian elite reminds Turkey that it is time to strengthen work among Russian Muslims. She is already very active. And the last explosion in Kazan?
Unnoticed by the media, for example, the Turkish-initiated unification of Bashkir and Tatar nationalists, who hated each other for a thousand years, passed.
Now they are introducing a prohibitive utilization fee for the import of used cars, which means that several tens of thousands more people in the Far East will be ready to support the separation of the region from Russia. They have not yet forgotten the dispersal of protest demonstrations against the increase in import duties two years ago by the Moscow riot police.
The nationality of “Siberian” was also not invented by chance, although, we believe that this is simply “folk art”, skillfully promoted in the network.
But for a possible operation to dismember Russia, an international background was also prepared in the form of a war in the Middle East. Iraq, Libya, Syria. Next in line is Iran, whose nuclear program threatens America no more than the mythical weapon mass destruction of Saddam and the exchange of loyal rulers to Muslim extremists.
Is the dismemberment of Russia an end in itself?
The authorities of America, potentially, undoubtedly want to get rid of Russia as powers with nuclear weapons, nuclear submarines and ballistic missiles. The second goal is to provide access to the resources of Siberia, the Far East and the Arctic Ocean. Dismembering the country is only the most appropriate tool for this. And a guarantee that the country will never be reborn.
The key point is to separate the European part of Russia from the oil and gas resources of Siberia. Without income from these resources, Moscow will be forced to fight for physical survival.
Are there any real prerequisites for the development of such a scenario?
- At the Siberian railway stations you can hear the announcement “The train is going to Russia”. In the Far East, people already see themselves as more participants in the APR market, and not the Russian, and especially the European market. The Chinese openly declare that they control more than half of fish production in the Far East, naturally, not without the participation of the Far Eastern authorities.
Somehow it was forgotten that the collapse of the USSR was carried out by the communist leaders of the national republics. In Russia, these same former communist leaders became the heads of the subjects of the Federation. And even after all the changes of personalities, the rules of the game are preserved; the heads of the subjects still have an example of their national comrades. Why not repeat it?
ВDo you think that the leapfrog of heads of regions over the past two decades has not knocked this idea out of them?
- First of all, such an idea is to separate, it is revived itself always and everywhere from the rulers of all times and peoples. Secondly ... We looked at leapfrog across regions. In the European part of Russia, “leapfrog” is evident, from Moscow they send “volodyt and reign” to anyone. And in the Far East - not at all. With the exception of the seaside governor, there all the appointees are local. Even cohesive Siberia was not able to keep the defense against the Vikings, but in the Far East it was possible. Only the head of Primorye was appointed a desk scientist, who had never actually led anything serious in his life. It turns out actually zits-governor. The Far Eastern clan never missed a single really serious outsider.
According to our analysis, in the Far East, the number of transfers of profitable business from hand to hand is three to five times less than in Siberia, and ten times less than in Central Russia. The region actually fell out of the business processes of mergers / acquisitions / ruin. This is a key sign of separation of the region’s economic life from the rest of the country.
Separatist-minded heads of the Far Eastern regions can play a key role in separating the Far East from Moscow, and then Siberia from the Urals.
And for this all tools can be used. The economy of Siberia and the Far East will continue to be centrally locked by a specially selected apparatus to China and other APR countries under the tacit control of Washington.
In addition to the economy, human relations will be strenuously improved, for example, students will be massively sent to study at Chinese, Japanese and Korean universities. Specialists under the pretext of learning new technologies will be trained in companies in these countries. Thus, it is possible to change the psychological attitude: the Russians will become “alien”, and the Chinese, Japanese, Koreans, and Americans will become “their own”.
By the way, China is sharply increasing the number of trained foreign students. Over the past four years, their number has grown sparsely, 195 thousand to 290 thousand. Only from Russia last year China studied about 12 thousand students, this is one-fifth of the largest contingent of the Far Eastern Federal University in the Far East. Chinese universities are becoming a "melting pot" for the intellectual elite of world youth.
But after all, all the governors beat themselves in the chest "are we patriots of Russia"?
Look not at the words, but at the deeds. The Amur Governor, according to the former presidential envoy of the Russian President in the Primorsky Territory, Viktor Kondratov, is the leader of the criminal community in Vladivostok. The plenipotentiary Ishayev, spitting on all the rules and decency, chased a policeman who did not give way to him, and then demanded that he be fired. And the deposits of precious metals passed under the control of the Ishayev family and people from his close circle five generations ahead.
In general, for so many Far Eastern dignitaries there are so many violations of the law that they don’t have enough time to sit in prison .. They are terribly afraid of exposure and that they will be deprived of enterprises and companies controlled by them. Under the guarantee of preserving their businesses, many of them will surrender the Far East to the Martians.
And I bring you only easily verifiable facts.
How far has the process gone?
- Want me to scare you? Once, when he was Minister of Economy, Gref stood firmly against the construction of a bridge to China in Blagoveshchensk. Gref said that he understands why China needs the bridge, but does not understand why Russia needs it. And did not give money.
In 2004, the Far Eastern governors, including Viktor Ishayev, then the governor of the Khabarovsk Territory, agreed to transfer part of the Greater Ussuri Island near Khabarovsk to China. Governors broke through the construction of a bridge to the island at the expense of the Russian budget. The bridge is under construction, about 700 million rubles have already been spent. China allocated money for a new airport in the border district of Fuyuan, and for a new two-kilometer road bridge to the island, and to the railway from the village of Fuyuan to the city of Jiamusi.
Now Ishaev declares that only the Chinese need a bridge from Khabarovsk to the island, and that this is almost a betrayal of national interests. As if his signature on all documents is not worth it!
Export raw materials from Russia and import goods to Russia?
Ishaev also insists on this. And we thought so. But just in case, they gave the situation to the experts for analysis. And that's what turned out. In this region, China has few factories. This is for China north, and the bulk of the goods produced in the warm south, and transported by sea to Vladivostok, and from there by rail. Leading goods across China is expensive. The consensus forecast, which takes into account the construction of a bridge to the island from two sides, the railway from the depths of China and the airport, is this: to create the possibility of quick transfer of personnel and equipment from China to Russia in the event of an armed conflict.
A week ago, at the request of the Far Eastern governors, Prime Minister Medvedev allowed Chinese aircraft to cross the state border of the Russian Federation during aerial photography of the border regions of Russia.
You said that a separate study was conducted in the Far East. Why was this region based on this? And how true is the statement today that “the land of Russia will grow in Siberia and the Far East”?
- I am afraid that today the opposite is more true: the split of the country will begin from these regions. The Far East was chosen for this reason. Look - in no other region of Russia there are such close and informal ties, including direct contacts with foreign countries, as in the Far East. Moreover, it is at the level of internal regional subjects.
If Yakutia or Western Siberia produces gas, diamonds, and oil, then these resources are controlled by the federal center. The riches of the Far East have long served as a resource base for foreign countries, primarily China. Do we still have at least one region that would be completely oriented towards a foreign economy? If something happens to Russia, they will not even notice this in the region.
Today, in fact, the last stage of preparation for the separation of the Far East from Russia is already underway.
Psychologically, the population of Siberia and the Far East is ready to send Moscow to hell. But they have not yet fully matured to political independence. Need an organizing center. Partly as such a center is the “Siberian Agreement”. It can be said that the plenipotentiary Ishayev actually prepared the Far Eastern Agreement, although it has not yet been formally fixed.
We believe that the hour "X" is already approaching. Recently, the same Ishayev said that he would not let the ESPO pipe into the Khabarovsk Territory. Even ten years ago, none of the officials of such statements even in thoughts could not allow. How is this government official openly challenging the federal center? Now please. Ishayev actually sees himself as an equal partner of Moscow, and does not even try to hide it. Not anyone, but a representative of the state, in fact, either through thoughtlessness, or intentionally, in fact, declared the need for transit payments for Russian goods coming from Moscow through its territory. But this is still a Russian territory. This approach is called separatism in all dictionaries. Moreover, Ishayev is not afraid to publicly announce his position, which means that there are forces behind him capable of supporting him. And key interests in the region are only China and the USA.
Why does a person who is rumored to have active ties with the criminals of the Far East, whose second position is no less significant, the first official, instead of resigning for an obvious and poorly concealed confrontation with the federal center is appointed presidential plenipotentiary?
Why do you always call only the name Ishayev. And other leaders?
- In our country there are two regions. Where the federal government essentially surrendered its positions is Chechnya and the Far East. Permanent power is negotiated with Chechnya, giving the republic to the clans in full control. With the Far East everything is more complicated. There is no teypovosti, but community organizations and "concepts" are strong. Federal control over all major resource segments is practically lost. The authority of the state is extremely low. The level of corruption is extremely high. The crime rate in the Far East in the last year alone has increased by 7%. The federal budget loses billions of dollars from the sale of timber and wood. Against this background, heavyweight Ishayev. The man who can not be fired. And this is why a person who is rumored to have active ties with the criminals of the Far East, whose second position is no less significant, the first official, instead of resigning for an obvious and poorly concealed confrontation with the federal center is appointed by the presidential plenipotentiary? In fact, the government demonstrates its powerlessness with this appointment and not only by the absence of levers of control, but also the impossibility to influence the observance of the law in the Far East. Two regions in Russia, where the authorities assessed the situation and decided that they would accept more intelligently and not lose more, this is Chechnya and the Far East, but both sides are well aware that only time gains.
On the other hand, Ishayev is a formal and informal leader. And so many years he beat himself in the patriotic chest, that the people believe in this chest. It would be more convenient for Ishayev to say something like: “Brothers and sisters. Kremlin oligarchs betrayed us. The time has come to decide our own fate. ” Although, of course, this is not important.
Ishayev himself, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, can be said to have signed the disappearance in an unknown direction more than $ 3 billion only in fishing matters. According to our data, the budget of the shadow economy of the Far East is 32-35 billion dollars. And where does the money go?
That is, in fact, the economy is ready. It requires only some kind of push to start the process of political sovereignization of the regions.
What could this push be?
- For example, similar to the destruction of the dam of the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric station with disastrous consequences. Or a possible drop in the price of oil to 10 dollars per barrel, which immediately deprives Moscow of money, without which it is impossible to keep everything beyond the Urals. At this price, any export of oil from Russia is not profitable. But the “friendly” regimes, China and the United States will be able to lend a helping hand, for example, will subsidize oil pumping through the ESPO, will provide soft loans, but not through Moscow, but directly to Tyumen, Novosibirsk, Khabarovsk, Vladivostok. Or they will change oil for food and goods on a barter basis.
But experts prove that the price of oil in the region of 100 dollars is profitable for America?
- America prints dollars and can support its oil industry at the expense of the printing press. China low oil price is very profitable. Washington can agree with Beijing that the Chinese are not crushing the dollar, and the Americans are dropping oil. Now there are so many articles about the tough confrontation of Beijing and Washington that, according to the laws of the genre, we are forced to conclude about their close cooperation. By the way, about 25 thousand American students study in China.
But what about the friendly US Arab oil regimes?
- The example of Mubarak showed the price of "friendship" with America. When it is necessary, the Americans will press the button on the exchange, and the oil will collapse. Perhaps simultaneously with the beginning of the war in the Middle East. We see this as the main scenario.
Does the Kremlin understand the danger of the situation?
- No, they are sure that the “Magnitsky list” is an annoying misunderstanding. But there would be no Magnitsky, they came up with something else. And our deputies complain that they "do not want to listen."
Frames are ready, people are ripe, and above, and below. And then, perhaps, the Ishaevs, kozhemyak, shorts will come to an agreement among themselves "for the sake of reviving their native land," that is, the safety of their capital, and Muscovites, such as Miklushevsky, like kittens thrown out.
How deep is the process of splitting the country? Do you think the cracks go along existing administrative boundaries? And yet - we have a large part of the regions, the same Far East - subsidized. How can subsidized regions plan independence even theoretically?
We really are from 83 subjects of the Russian Federation 70 are subsidized. The non-subsidized regions include Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, Perm Territory, Vologda, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Samara, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen Regions, Nenets, Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Districts. But if you start studying the economics of individual subsidized regions, you will see a lot of interesting things. Take the Czech Republic or Georgia and compare with their budgets the budgets of individual subsidized regions. For example, the budget of the Rostov region this year - 285 billion rubles (about $ 9,5 billion). The budget of Georgia is $ 8,8 billion. The population is also approximately comparable: 4,2 million and 4,4 million people, respectively. But the budget of Georgia is in surplus, and the Rostov region is connected to the federal oil and gas pipe, thanks to which it receives almost $ 1 billion of subsidies annually to its treasury.
With the Far East is even more difficult. The budget of Vladivostok is 340 billion rubles (approx. 11 billion dollars), the region is formally subsidized. But the order of 55 billion rubles only fish goes by sea past the federal and regional budgets, this is official data. A comparable amount 46 billion rubles goes to China in the forest. In the literal sense, this is also semi-official data, voiced by the authorities.
According to our data, the total shadow budget of the region exceeds the official budget. What kind of subsidies and dependence on the federation can we talk about here?
This, in our opinion, explains the growing independent propaganda of the same Ishayev. He understands the real possibilities of the Far East.
According to what scheme and in what order do you think the split will begin? Will there be a new format of the “Bialowieza” agreement, or will everything fall out without warning?
- According to the scenario predicted by us, the process will go gradually. At first, an agreement on the type of the Bialowieza Agreement will be signed by the subjects of the Far East and will present an ultimatum to Moscow. Siberia and the Urals will fluctuate. But Americans, Europeans and Chinese will offer such “pies and donuts” that the situation will quickly be inclined to sign agreements by all subjects - from the Urals to Chukotka.
The Kremlin is likely to keep the regions in the European part of the country. Time of troubles will begin, European regions will be offered to pay for oil and gas with hard currency, which they will not have. Again, the United States, along with China and the “democratic world community,” will “help” the livelihood of European territory, but in exchange for nuclear disarmament. And where to go to the Kremlin, if there is nothing to drown and the power station stopped?
For the first time, it will be beneficial for the USA and China to have many dependent entities in the Urals and to the east. But the bickering between the regions will be a hindrance to the export of resources, so the “peacekeeping forces” will build a “new order” on the separated Russian lands.
We proceed from the fact that the world powers will agree not to occupy the territory of the former Russia directly, and, most likely, will plunder it together.
Based on the sources studied, we drew the “split scheme” - the Far Eastern Republic (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, the Amur Region, the Jewish Autonomous Region, part of the Trans-Baikal Territory), the Magadan Republic (the Magadan Region, the Kamchatka Territory, Chukotka), the Great Yakutia. Yakutia is likely to stretch from the ocean to China, tearing away a part of the Irkutsk region and the Trans-Baikal Territory in order to break the Russian territories with the comprador elite.
The Krasnoyarsk (or East Siberian) Republic will stretch along the Yenisei. Siberian regions, Altai, Kuzbass will unite in the Siberian Confederation. The Greater Urals will unite the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan regions and, possibly, parts of the Orenburg and Kirov regions and the Perm Territory.
The Volga Confederation may be divided into the right-bank and left-bank, and maybe not. It all depends on the activity of Muslims on the right bank of the Volga. All regions can enter it, starting from the Nizhny Novgorod region and to the south.
The Northern Agreement will stretch from Pskov to the Nenets Autonomous District, it will be taken under its wing by the Scandinavians, the British and the Germans.
Chernozem will slip away from Moscow, probably with the help of Ukraine. The republics of the Russian Caucasus are likely to begin the seizure of Stavropol and the Krasnodar Territory, which could lead to a long war in the whole space between the Don, the Volga and the North Caucasus with the active intervention of Turkey. Washington had enough for Georgia to stop its desire to thrust into this snake's nest, the Moscow "principality" would shrink to the central Nechernozemie, and find itself somewhere in the 15 century ...
It is unlikely that this scheme is so accurately implemented in practice. But no matter how the events turn, the Russian Empire is very likely to end forever in the near future.
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