Military Review

Russian ruble and Belarusian force majeure

52
Russian ruble and Belarusian force majeure

Forecast, more forecast



The forecasts for August regarding the ruble exchange rate were mostly calm. Without too much optimism, but also without serious fears. At this particular moment, they are generally justified: the oil backing helps the Russian ruble to take a hit. And the blow came from where, we admit, few expected it.

On the eve of the presidential elections, the authors were among those analysts who openly ignored the Belarusian factor in their forecasts. Considering it, if not negligible, then certainly short-term. Until the forecast is refuted, the second week of protests is ending, and the ruble is still there. It is possible that he will end August at about the same marks from which he began.


It seems that the time has not come to react to the big Belarusian economic downtime. Almost all political observers pay attention not only to the uncertainty of the Belarusian president, but also to the fact that the newly-minted oppositionists are also losing confidence. Economists prefer to remain silent on these occasions, realizing that the situation can very quickly turn in any direction.

Therefore, they are now very careful in their forecasts. It seems that very few people care about the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble: they are ready to put an end to it in any scenario. However, since no one is in a hurry to drown the Russian ruble, there is no reason for such disregard for the Belarusian ruble.

Indeed, in the most critical case, there is generally an absolutely fantastic, it would seem, option of switching to a single currency. At last! The authors wrote so much about the advantages of a single currency, no matter what, the Russian ruble or the union monetary unit, whatever you call it, that they caused an extremely sharp, and mind you, negative reaction both in the Ministry of Finance and in the Central Bank.

Recall that the author of the most original and most promising project of a single currency for the EAEU, the so-called altyn, was by no means a Russian or Belarusian politician, but the ex-president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The project was then not just hushed up, rather, they blabbed, not without the participation of Europe, the United States and even China, where they immediately felt a serious competitor in the altyn.

No matter how negatively this kind of financial “annexation” of Belarus was perceived in the world, it would become the strongest incentive for the full-scale implementation of the Union State project. But the annexation of Belarus in any form is not very profitable for Russia: the political risks are too great. And this is with an almost unequivocal readiness to unite the two peoples.

It is clear that we will immediately be reminded of everything, starting with Ossetia and Abkhazia and ending with Crimea and Donbass. All these decisions, as a rule, hurt the ruble very painfully and, as a result, the welfare of the majority of the Russian population. The oligarchs, with rare exceptions, only profited from them, although later they fell under sanctions, like, for example, Oleg Deripaska with his strategically important aluminum facilities for the country.

In addition, there are very big doubts that the Russian liberals in power will like such a project. And they will surely "chatter" or "mince" him long before the real implementation. To the quiet applause of colleagues from abroad.

Only without panic


Belarusian force majeure happened in August. This month has long been considered cursed in our country, almost since the time of the Emergency Committee, or even earlier. In terms of finance, it is customary, first of all, to recall the default of 1998 - with the collapse of banks, the veiled robbery of depositors and the fall in the ruble exchange rate, first by two, and then by three and four times.

Many are now panicking, believing that not today or tomorrow it is necessary to wait for something like a new default or at least devaluation, as after the “Crimean spring”. But if our financial system survives now, then this is already forever: after the coronavirus, there is also such a blow in the gut, very few people would be able to withstand this.

There is no panic only on the exchanges. And this indicator is very subtle and accurate. Someone will say that the Moscow Stock Exchange is not an indicator, everything on it will always be dictated by the Central Bank. We disagree, the Bank of Russia is valued for this in the West, calling its chairman and the best banker of almost the whole world, and even the savior of the Russian economy.

Let us not forget our own regular criticism of the main regulator of our monetary system and we will not give up on it. However, we recall that Russian finances have been integrated into the world market for many years, what is their main difference from some Morocco or the Middle East tyranny, where the dollar rate is set personally by the monarch every morning.

By and large, the Russian ruble exchange rate is also a given value. Of course, not by someone personally, but by the market, but, in fact, this changes little. It is clear that some dependence of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian one takes place, but it is extremely small. But Belarusian money depends almost entirely on the Russian ruble.

One-time dollar or euro-infusions under the "popular protest" cannot cancel this dependence in any way. In addition, such a resource is in any case not endless, protests will sooner or later come to naught, and then again you will have to live on what you earn. And also on what was thrown from Moscow.

With this, most likely, there will be big problems for some time, but if the flywheel of the Belarusian economy continues to work intermittently, then it will be very big. Overseas and European tranches can only aggravate the situation. Moreover, it is completely incomprehensible where, in addition to political fuss, they will generally be invested.

For many years Russia has been feeding and is feeding even now the Union economy of Belarus, which is strategically unthinkable to lose. Everything invested in an ally will go to pieces if there is a complete rupture of relations, and Moscow pretends that it is on the sidelines of the events taking place in Belarus.

But the open support of the official Minsk by Moscow is fraught with financial risks, primarily because of the need to take on at least part of the burden from Western sanctions. Almost inevitable now. What losses Russia is ready to make now is a very big question.

Let us express an idea that is absolutely seditious according to the present perceptions: the economy of Belarus only seems to be completely dependent on Russia. It is believed that oil refining, industry, as well as the agricultural sector, together with a developed food industry, are uniquely focused on a great ally. And supposedly the break with Russia is leading this economy to inevitable collapse.

Let us remind in this connection that, with a strong desire, raw materials can be delivered to the same refineries not only through the outdated pipes of the legendary "Druzhba". The inevitably rising prices are easy to bring down thanks to the low level of wages for employees of Belarusian enterprises and the revision of tax policy.

The latter, of course, is a blow to the budget, but it can be saved by drastically reducing the army of security officials. Where to attach them is a question that cannot be resolved right away, but still possible.

Everything else is a little more complicated, but if Russia stops buying Belarusian products at all, they will not stop buying others. And we, in fact, are not in a position to do this: after all, the Belarusians can easily pay off their colossal debts to Russia with their goods.

It is by no means just that last fall, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov actually refused Belarus a loan of $ 600 million to refinance its debt. And it is no coincidence that he linked this tranche with the prospect of further integration of Russia and Belarus.


For the sake of completeness, in this section, it remains to give the latest data from Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchangewhere, against all odds, there is no hint of panic:

The dollar rate jumped by another 0,0140 BYN, to 2,4835 BYN / USD. This is the maximum level in four months. Since the beginning of the month, the dollar value has increased by 0,0460 BYN.
The euro exchange rate fell by 0,0085 BYN, to 2,9400 BYN / EUR, and left historical the maximum, which was previously updated three times in a row. Since the beginning of August, the euro has risen in price by 0,0410 BYN.
The Russian ruble exchange rate increased by 0,0058 BYN, to 3,3771 BYN / 100 RUB, to the maximum value in 36 days. Since the beginning of the month, the Russian ruble has strengthened by BYN 0,0615.
Forecast of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate: the pressure remains, but there will be no significant devaluation.

At the same time, according to the independent resource www.udf.by, in the exchange offices of Belarus, the cost of selling the dollar has confidently exceeded 2,5 rubles, and the cost of selling the euro has exceeded 3,0 rubles not in all banks.

We now have a different ruble


It is clear that in the event of a break with Russia, Belarusian exports will drop significantly, but inside the country no one will remain hungry. We in Russia also understand that this will make the Belarusian economy bad, even very bad, but it is useless to intimidate people with this, which has already been proven by the experience of the Ukrainian “Maidan”.

But for the Russian ruble (even after the ruinous quarantine), the situation is very different from 1998, 2008, and even 2014. No matter how much we criticize our own financial authorities for the tough course of nationwide impoverishment and poor stimulation of the real economy, many countries can envy our financial situation.

Russia has nearly $ 600 billion in reserves, and its sovereign debt to GDP ratio is one of the best in the world. It is bad, of course, that this GDP is growing almost slower than that of the whole world, but this is a completely different topic. It seems that oil has completely refused to fall in price, and at the moment this is the most important plus in relation to our and, of course, the Belarusian ruble.


Even Western analysts, traditionally critical of Russia, admit that a default is now simply impossible in our country, as is the decline in the ruble exchange rate at times. A default in Belarus cannot be ruled out, but this is only if the force majeure drags on for a long time and already affects the whole country, right up to the same refineries: Mozyr and Novopolotsk "Naftan".

But it could well be prevented by Russia, which, unlike the West, if it does help its partner in the Union, it will be direct and open. And our ruble, in case of urgent need, is able to support, by the way, not only the Bank of Russia, but also leading banks with a large share of the state in their capital, and exporting companies, and not only state ones, but also private ones.
Author:
Photos used:
picabu.ru, proza.ru, cdnvideo.ru, belvpo.com, pbs.twimg.com
52 comments
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 22 August 2020 04: 43
    +1
    It is clear that we will immediately be reminded of everything, from Ossetia and Abkhazia to Crimea and Donbass.
    And what, will we hand over and live? fool "To return our spans and crumbs"! (Vysotsky).
    1. Ilya-spb
      Ilya-spb 22 August 2020 06: 15
      0
      The Russians do not give up!

      And everything will be fine. The main thing is not to panic.

      Somehow on VO there were many articles with 50 shades of pessimism ... Alarming ...
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 22 August 2020 06: 41
        -4
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        The Russians do not give up!
        And everything will be fine. The main thing is not to panic.
        Somehow on VO there were many articles with 50 shades of pessimism ... Alarming ...

        "Your slender ranks are thinning,
        writers you respect "
        It's just that the poison gets under the gills. request
      2. SOVIET UNION 2
        SOVIET UNION 2 22 August 2020 07: 35
        +1
        The Russians do not give up!
        What have the Russians not surrendered since the 90s, what have they won back, what have they captured? And the most important thing! Who was bent over?
        1. Ragnar Lodbrok
          Ragnar Lodbrok 22 August 2020 07: 42
          12
          Crimea. And they did not capture or recaptured, they returned theirs.
          1. SOVIET UNION 2
            SOVIET UNION 2 22 August 2020 08: 05
            +9
            Why did they give up Ukraine so stupidly if everything went so well? Doesn't the liquidation of all people's leaders of the LDNR and the complete health of the leaders of Crimea seem suspicious? Or are they opposed by different suburbs? Who separated part of the water area in Norway? In industry, what did the Russians conquer? Russian aviation leaders or fleet building leaders? Do Russians export high-speed trains all over the world? The Hindus built a monorail. Have the Russians been using it for a long time? Is the whole world buying Russian trucks and buses? Russian agricultural machinery is the most advanced and can even harvest pine nuts? Have Russians flooded China with consumer goods? Not! So what!? In China, what is the population, which means what sales market !? Have the Indians been overwhelmed with goods? Also not sickly sales market! Got it! The Russians made a cunning move by making a feint with their ears and took over the electronics market !? And instead of pipes, a huge number of automatic probes were taken from Russia into outer space !? winked wink what
            1. Narak-zempo
              Narak-zempo 23 August 2020 10: 16
              0
              You are here: https://ruxpert.ru/Achievements_Russia
      3. Cyril G ...
        Cyril G ... 22 August 2020 08: 27
        0
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        about many articles with 50 shades of pessimism ... Alarming ...


        The owner changed and began to slowly unfold the editorial policy. Every day, a continuous politot goes
        1. Alexga
          Alexga 22 August 2020 08: 53
          +1
          This is where the polarization of publications seems to begin, just like on Newsland.
          1. Cyril G ...
            Cyril G ... 22 August 2020 12: 17
            +2
            Topvar's site plunged into Guano, that is, modern politot. Adequate articles on military affairs have become minuscule ...
            1. Alexga
              Alexga 22 August 2020 12: 28
              +4
              The trouble, Kirill, there is no way to find a resource for a free exchange of opinions, without very dubious censorship like here. About 10 years ago, a local guy with a normal psyche created dal. by, but it did not gain popularity. It was created as a counterweight to Newland.
              1. Cyril G ...
                Cyril G ... 22 August 2020 12: 30
                +2
                Perhaps I agree, at first glance at Varspot there is a minimum of politics ...
      4. Sergey Obraztsov
        Sergey Obraztsov 22 August 2020 09: 18
        +2
        Somehow on VO there were many articles with 50 shades of pessimism ... Alarming ...


        Hope for the best, prepare for the worst?
      5. Arlen
        Arlen 22 August 2020 10: 45
        +8
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        The main thing is not to panic.

        The main thing now, in my opinion, is to prevent chaos in Belarus.
      6. iouris
        iouris 22 August 2020 15: 22
        +4
        Quote: Ilya-spb
        The Russians do not give up!

        "If the Russians don't give up, then they do." (World history. Bank imperial)
    2. Arlen
      Arlen 22 August 2020 10: 42
      10
      It is clear that we will immediately be reminded of everything, from Ossetia and Abkhazia to Crimea and Donbass.

      And now they don't remember us? Sanctions, including not for the Crimea, arrive?
  2. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 22 August 2020 05: 10
    10
    But it may well be prevented by Russia, which, unlike the West, if it does help its partner in the Union, it will directly and openly.
    Maybe, but how, under what guarantees? If you remember, in December 2013, Russia, wishing to help Yanukovych, bought out a package of Ukrainian Eurobonds at 5% per annum in the amount of $ 3 billion with a maturity date until January 1, 2016. After the coup, the new authorities of Ukraine announced that they did not recognize this debt. Despite a number of court decisions, things are still there!
  3. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 22 August 2020 05: 27
    -4
    Russia has nearly $ 600 billion in reserves

    Enemy candy wrappers? Shredders them! Immediately! Prove in practice that dollars are nothing more than cut paper!
    1. Adam Khomich
      Adam Khomich 22 August 2020 06: 06
      -1
      You are delusional! It says in black and white for you "for 600 billion dollars ...".
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 22 August 2020 06: 44
        0
        Quote: Adam Khomich
        You are delusional! It says in black and white for you "for 600 billion dollars ...".

        Senile insanity or meanness. The result is the same, just the attitude can be different. To understand and forgive or .... angry
    2. rotmistr60
      rotmistr60 22 August 2020 06: 40
      +1
      A. Privalov
      Shredders them! Immediately!
      Strange, why then not in shekels? You are clearly not a patriot of Israel, although you constantly drown for it and, apparently, you live there.
      1. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 22 August 2020 07: 04
        0
        Quote: rotmistr60
        A. Privalov
        Shredders them! Immediately!
        Strange, why then not in shekels? You are clearly not a patriot of Israel, although you constantly drown for it and, apparently, you live there.

        Better in tugriks. The course will look prettier.
    3. Cube123
      Cube123 22 August 2020 07: 02
      +1
      Quote: A. Privalov
      Russia has nearly $ 600 billion in reserves

      Enemy candy wrappers? Shredders them! Immediately! Prove in practice that dollars are nothing but cut paper!

      Why make a mistake? It's just a method of calculating the size of the country's gold reserves. All assets are converted at the current exchange rate into dollars and the total amount is added up. The real share of the dollar in the gold and foreign exchange reserves is less than thirty percent. And taking into account the fact that the dollar has fallen in price against gold by 30% over the past year, and by 60% in two years, they will really soon start giving it "in the face" laughing

      1. Errr
        Errr 22 August 2020 08: 14
        +3
        Quote: Cube123
        And taking into account the fact that the dollar has fallen in price against gold by 30% over the past year, and by 60% in two years, they will really soon start giving it "in the face" laughing
        This is only after the actual unbinding of the rubles from the "killed raccoons" [formally, the ₽ is not tied to $, but this is only formally], otherwise it will be possible to get the same distribution for rubles. smile
        The chart below shows the change in the price of gold in rubles from 01.02.2019/22.08.2020/XNUMX to XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX.
        Yours and mine are like brothers.
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 22 August 2020 08: 30
          +1
          Quote: Herrr
          formally, ₽ is not tied to $, but this is only formally.

          The ruble is not pegged to the dollar, but the total volume of the ruble issue. Under the current laws, the total amount of rubles that Russia has the right to issue is equal to the total amount of gold and foreign exchange reserves (expressed in dollars, see above) multiplied by the dollar exchange rate. And these are "two big differences", as they say in Odessa laughing There is freedom of maneuver here.
          1. Errr
            Errr 22 August 2020 08: 59
            +6
            Yours, so to speak, is not quite according to Wasserman. lol
            In accordance with the so-called "Washington Consensus", the amount of currency in circulation must correspond to the accumulated reserves of currencies and foreign exchange goods [gold is the same foreign exchange commodity as everyone else]. And thus, it is the ruble exchange rate that is actually tied to the dollar exchange rate by regulating the issue of the former in accordance with the above rule. And the ruble does not have any actual freedom in relation to the US dollar at the moment, and under the current state of affairs, alas. First of all, this is precisely why, from the point of view of the "collective west", Nabiullin is a "very competent chief banker"; it entirely "fits into the framework" and is "understandable" [plays by the "generally accepted" rules]. smile
      2. A. Privalov
        A. Privalov 22 August 2020 08: 28
        +1
        And given the fact that the dollar has fallen in price against gold by 30% over the past year, and by 60% over two years, they will really soon start giving it "in the face" laughing


        While the fat one loses weight, the thin leg will stretch. lol
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 22 August 2020 08: 50
          +2
          Quote: A. Privalov
          While the fat one loses weight, the thin leg will stretch. lol

          But this is a controversial statement. If we use a physiological analogy, then there are a lot of diseases in which the attempt of the "fat" to lose weight is fraught with death.
          1. A. Privalov
            A. Privalov 22 August 2020 09: 23
            +1
            Quote: Cube123
            Quote: A. Privalov
            While the fat one loses weight, the thin leg will stretch. lol

            But this is a controversial statement. If we use a physiological analogy, then there are a lot of diseases in which the attempt of the "fat" to lose weight is fraught with death.

            - Fedya, did you hear what people say? The dollar, it turns out, is falling.
            - Vasya! Yes, so that you have everything stood as he falls.
      3. depressant
        depressant 22 August 2020 10: 09
        +4
        It seems to me that the esteemed Authors are somehow very optimistic about the state of our economy.
        In the second quarter of this year, the federal budget deficit amounted to 1,635 trillion rubles, which forced the government to borrow 1,5 trillion to cover it. In order for the country to live through the third quarter now going on, the government's financial bloc must borrow another 1 trillion rubles somewhere.
        But a month and a half before the end of the third quarter, they managed to borrow only 327 billion rubles.
        How is the loan carried out?
        Sale of federal loan bonds. Right now, in order for the country to receive salaries and pensions in this quarter, the government must sell federal loan bonds worth 112 billion rubles every week. Note - each. For this, there must be those willing to buy these bonds, that is, to lend money to the country. But at the auction on August 18, not a single person was found, and it did not take place ...
        There are different explanations for this sadness. In their opinions, experts are unanimously relying on the possibility of a military invasion of Russia into Belarus, and, accordingly, the fear of debt buyers. Hence the conclusion: there will be no invasion at least for this reason.

        Rather, we need to think about what to live on. Here in the treasury there is supposedly a balance from last year - 1,1 trillion rubles. Enough until the end of the third quarter. And then?
        What to do afterwards in the face of the failure of public debt trading? They say that foreigners don't need our national debt, they don't buy our bonds! Russian bankers are ready to take bonds totaling 200 billion rubles, and even then at a significant discount. But who will give them!
        And about the treasury money in the amount of 1,1 trillion rubles, I say that they are supposedly in the budget and will be enough, because, according to expert rumors, they are stored in banks, and it is difficult to get them out of there, slowly - such a seizure procedure. It is not that he opened a secret door, and there is a mountain of piastres, take and spend. And the question is: isn't this the money that Nabiullina agreed to return to the budget following the sale of Sberbank? The amount is painfully similar. Then they are not in banks, but in the Central Bank. Nabiullina is now trading gold with might and main - she has increased sales by 7 times! But dollars mysteriously remain in foreign accounts. And what kind of gold is that? Really from the National Wealth Fund? Which one decided not to touch at all? In addition, according to the agreement on the sale of Sber, Nabiullina must return 1,1 trillion rubles to the budget not in a single payment, but in tranches over the next 3 years ...

        Therefore, based on the realities, the government will cry, but for some reason not touch the National Welfare Fund (NWF) and cut development spending. According to rumors, a lot of useful things worth 5 trillion rubles will be deleted from the budget. And they will publicly explain why this is so, or they will not explain it at all. Where can we invade Belarus! There is no time for fat. And I will be very surprised if an invasion occurs.
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 22 August 2020 15: 04
          +1
          Quote: depressant
          For this, there must be people willing to buy these bonds, that is, to lend money to the country. But at the auction on August 18, not a single person was found, and it did not take place ...
          There are different explanations for this sadness. In their opinions, experts are unanimously relying on the possibility of a military invasion of Russia into Belarus, and, accordingly, the fear of debt buyers. Hence the conclusion: there will be no invasion at least for this reason.

          The answer is simple. In March, the US Senate passed a package of sanctions against Russia's sovereign debt. US private individuals are prohibited from buying Russian OFZs.
          https://primechaniya.ru/obshchee/stati/sankcii-protiv-rossijskogo-gosdolga-eshhe-bolshe-obvalyat-rubl
  4. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 22 August 2020 06: 12
    +5
    Nabiullina received a medal from the IMF for the 2014 devaluation of the ruble. Glazyev was told to shut up when he said what needs to be done to make the ruble an investment currency.
    The government is in favor of liberalizing foreign exchange controls.
    Belarus has nothing to do with it.
    1. Arlen
      Arlen 22 August 2020 10: 53
      14
      Quote: Tank jacket
      Nabiullina received a medal from the IMF

      Who proposed and approved Nabiullina for the position?
      Quote: Tank jacket
      Glazyev told to shut up

      She does not tolerate correct and correct opinions. Acts as a usurper.
      Quote: Tank jacket
      The government is in favor of liberalizing foreign exchange controls.

      There are many opinions on this matter. I know only one thing, currency control must be strict and regulated by the state.
  5. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 August 2020 06: 46
    +7
    The opportunity to work in Europe, Belarusians seem to be a better prospect than low salaries in the union state. And even the example of Ukraine does not frighten them. The course of events is now determined by the youth. They do not think so far about social security, about what will happen tomorrow.
    1. bar
      bar 22 August 2020 08: 27
      +1
      They do not think so far about social security, about what will happen tomorrow.

      If you follow the outlined path, tomorrow there will be a territory with the ruins of "privatized" factories, through which the transit route Russia-Europe passes with Belarusian prostitutes on the sidelines, covered by an army of unemployed "security officials", shuttle stalls and a handful of officials living on money from paying for oil pumping by "friendship".
    2. nickname7
      nickname7 26 August 2020 14: 27
      0
      The opportunity to work in Europe seems to Belarusians a better perspective than low salaries in the union state.

      But are Belarusians now prohibited from working in Europe?
  6. apro
    apro 22 August 2020 07: 09
    +2
    And our ruble in case of urgent need

    Our ruble is ... a very loud statement ... it has been chattering for the last 30 years in such a way that it is not entirely clear. Is it somehow connected with the real economy? Or is it executing commands? Whose only ...
  7. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 22 August 2020 08: 07
    +4
    Russian ruble and ...

    What will be there: major or minor - is unknown. But I have not yet seen an eccentric who does this:
    Quote: Ilya-spb
    Somehow on VO there were many articles with 50 shades of pessimism ... Alarming ...

    These are not many articles ... This is a situation like this:

    drinks
  8. bar
    bar 22 August 2020 08: 14
    0
    The latter, of course, is a blow to the budget, but it can be saved by drastically reducing the army of security officials.

    And transfer them to the army of the unemployed.
    Super recommendation. It seems that the author did not find our merry 90s either.
    1. Cyril G ...
      Cyril G ... 22 August 2020 08: 30
      0
      Quote: bar
      And transfer them to the army of the unemployed.
      Super recommendation. It seems that the author did not find our merry 90s either.


      Maybe he was the beneficiary from our 90s
      1. bar
        bar 22 August 2020 08: 44
        0
        Can. Scratch any of our "economists", and Chubais's red face will appear ...
        1. depressant
          depressant 22 August 2020 12: 55
          +3
          Exactly. I read a lot of articles from experts - seemingly critical, seemingly devastating, they say, where the government is looking. And in each of them the thought "our current economic crisis is caused by the coronavirus epidemic" is carried out. Oh really? And the fact that before that the economy had been falling for six years in a row due to a grandiose outflow of capital abroad and the epidemic simply made the secret clear - this is not, as it were. The coronavirus is to blame!
          As for Chubais personally, his activities led to the fact that our remarkable enterprise on nanotubes, the development of Russian scientists, made with budget money, but for the most part is Dutch, and Chubais was going to sell it completely there. I mean the high-tech company OCSiAl with a capitalization of $ 1 billion. And the same Chubais allowed foreign companies like Enel to enter our electricity production market - to the market of the military-strategic component of the economy! Who allowed foreigners to dispose of the circuit breakers?
          In general, not at any gate!
  9. bar
    bar 22 August 2020 08: 19
    0
    It is clear that in the event of a break with Russia, Belarusian exports will drop significantly, but inside the country no one will remain hungry.

    Interestingly, these "economists" did not graduate from HSE? There is so much optimism on the occasion of the rupture of Belarus and Russia in their predictions that it makes you sick.
  10. Livonetc
    Livonetc 22 August 2020 08: 39
    0
    "And the blow came from where, we admit, few expected it"
    I do not agree with the statement above.
    Problems in relations with Belarus were enough before. Lukashenka threw out tricks all the time.
    He has never been a reliable partner of Russia, as the head of the Republic of Belarus.
    They were waiting for anything.
    I have a very positive attitude towards Belarusians.
    Sorry, but I will be cynical.
    What happened puts Lukashenka in a stalemate.
    And this can be a positive factor for both Russia and Belarus.
    Russia, whatever we want, is a capitalist state.
    She has both public and private funds ready for investment.
    The situation in the Republic of Belarus can contribute to a more free penetration of Russian capital.
    Previously, Lukashenka actively opposed this in terms of acquiring property over the republic's production assets, by citizens of Russia.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 22 August 2020 19: 55
      0
      Quote: Livonetc
      The situation in the Republic of Belarus can contribute to a more free penetration of Russian capital.

      There is a big difference between Capital or oil rubles, Belarus is unique precisely because everything works there. Well, or almost everything .. It is state property there. With the penetration of "capital", there may be a scenario of the Russian nineties .... But if instead of capital, you first throw in scientists, economists, just not paid talking heads but serious brains from the Academy of Sciences in order to calculate how you can save and develop production, integrate them with Russian enterprises. It's worth at least trying this
  11. nikvic46
    nikvic46 22 August 2020 09: 15
    +5
    Today I saw a photo of destroyed factories in the center of Samara, which looks like a miniature Ukrainian city in 1944. The smart guys bought up these factories on the cheap, and they want to sell them profitably. It hurts to look at it, not because I worked at one of them, but because they want to tell us that our bourgeoisie is positive, and the rest are so-so. But this is shown only in the center. And what about the outskirts? They want to accustom us to the idea that unemployment is a normal phenomenon, and that this is what makes our economy profitable. But up the sleeve, profitability is something that can be sold overseas. And also manufactures that work for export. And in Belarus it will be exactly the same as on the remains of Soviet industry.
  12. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 22 August 2020 11: 46
    +1
    The fallen ruble I do not know what to depend on .... If it were from Belarus, the people would have survived. And here and without it .... who is to blame.
  13. 72jora72
    72jora72 22 August 2020 12: 55
    +3
    many countries can envy our financial situation.
    Masterpiece! I give a standing ovation and suggest that this phrase be included in the Russian anthem.
  14. iouris
    iouris 22 August 2020 15: 19
    0
    "Integration" (whatever that means) is the only option in the current conditions. The rupe will float anyway. To achieve independence, it is necessary to increase the domestic market to 200-250 million consumers (minimum). There is no special force majeure. More precisely, if it takes place, then it has been a long time ago. A long time ago. But we must get out of the abyss in which we all found ourselves.
  15. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 22 August 2020 19: 47
    0
    But the accession of Belarus in any form is not very profitable for Russia: the political risks are too great. And this is with an almost unequivocal readiness to unite the two peoples.

    How is it not very profitable? on the contrary, political risks are sharply reduced for Russia, but for Belarus they are increasing, as they make its economy dependent on flirting with energy prices, etc. The economy of Belarus is based on its own production and a rather big factor of developed IT.
  16. Nikza
    Nikza 23 August 2020 18: 42
    -1
    "The exchange rate of the ruble is set by the market" - what a naivete it is. Proceeding from the very nature of the national currency, there can be no "market" rate. What course is needed, such a course will be.
    And also a very funny thing about the subordination of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to the US Federal Reserve. Very funny :-))) The funniest joke I've heard.
  17. akunin
    akunin 24 August 2020 09: 06
    +1
    But it could well be prevented by Russia, which, unlike the West, if it does help its partner in the Union, it will be direct and open. And our ruble, in case of urgent need, is able to support, by the way, not only the Bank of Russia, but also leading banks with a large share of the state in their capital, and exporting companies, and not only state ones, but also private ones.
    it is necessary to go into the growth of the American economy and the ruble will go into a peak. It is very unclear with the Chinese economy, how the actions of Trump will affect it (it is clear what will be bad, but how much?). I watched several oil market analysts, according to their forecasts, oil will not grow will be (even during a cold winter). the price of gas is tied to the price of oil - draw conclusions. American bonds are still considered the most reliable and after a rollback of gold, they become an effective investment + cryptocurrencies.

    No matter how much we criticize our own financial authorities for the tough course of nationwide impoverishment and poor stimulation of the real economy, many countries can envy our financial situation.
    Russia has nearly $ 600 billion in reserves, and its sovereign debt to GDP ratio is one of the best in the world. It is bad, of course, that this GDP is growing almost slower than that of the whole world, but this is a completely different topic.
    dead 600 billion dollars of reserves have not brought any benefit to anyone (even in macroeconomics), why are the authors silent about the total corporate debt which is the guarantor of the state? I am silent about GDP growth at all, no growth - no progress. article from the series: "Our trains are the most trainable in the world."