Military Review

Belarus at a crossroads. What's next?

132

The rapidly developing events in Belarus, the massive public rejection of the Lukashenka regime and the interception of popular protests by Western countries and their Belarusian activists have put the country on the brink of serious tests. Lukashenka’s shortsighted policy with his cunning “multi-vector approach” worn out everyone in Belarus, Russia, and the West. The Belarusian society was excited, the “deep people” rebelled against the president, and the people's confidence cannot be restored to him. The president does not suit anyone, the “multi-vector approach” has suffered a crushing collapse, under any scenario Lukashenka will have to leave.


It would seem that he strove to build a welfare state, did everything for the people, did not allow the formation of an oligarchy and the plundering of the country, and the "ungrateful" people so unfairly push the long-standing head of state away from power. Lukashenka simply missed the moment when his struggle for the state turned into a struggle for individual and unlimited power. As a result, it became an obstacle in the further development of the state, as well as an “incapable of negotiation” element in the global confrontation between Russia and the West.

What forces operate in Belarus


He won the first round of confrontation and by force prevented an attempt by extremists to carry out a putsch, after which a delicate equilibrium ensued, which turned into a soft phase of “white maidan” and “lukamaidan”. Now Lukashenka is taking an exam for the right to rule the country, and the future of both Lukashenka and Belarus will depend on how this confrontation ends.

Both internal and external forces are involved in the events taking place. The sincere desire of the population to change society and improve its well-being, which was hampered by Lukashenka, was fueled and intercepted by Western experts on "color revolutions" together with the local opposition hired by them and aimed at destroying the state according to the Ukrainian scenario.

Who pursues what interests? Lukashenka seeks to preserve his power at any cost and is ready to make a deal both with the West and with Russia for this. The West, more precisely, the United States and their slander Poland, want Belarus to be separated from Russia, eliminate (including physical) Lukashenko, break up and plunder the state and turn it into its own colony on the model of Ukraine. Poland sees the possibility of reviving the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth with the inclusion of Lithuania and Belarus. The opposition and a significant part of Lukashenka's entourage want to remove him, come to power under the "roof" of the West, and plunder the Soviet legacy preserved by the incumbent president. Russia by any means seeks to keep Belarus in its sphere of influence and to continue the construction of the union state.

Possible scenarios


In this situation, two scenarios are possible.

According to the first, Lukashenka may lose if a general strike starts, the power is paralyzed, his team starts to scatter and he will lose the levers of government, and hundreds of thousands of protesters will actually surround state institutions and demand his resignation. In this situation, no one and nothing will save him, only the flight from the country will remain. Without Lukashenko, Belarus will inevitably go to the West, since the pro-Russian elite is not there, he successfully cleaned it out during the years of his rule. Instead of Lukashenka, the Americans will try to bring Makei to power.

In this regard, the question arises of what to do for Russia, for which this will be the second geopolitical defeat after Ukraine. It is hardly possible to seriously talk about the introduction of Russian troops in this situation, the Russian leadership is well aware that this will not be accepted by the majority of the Belarusian society, and it is pointless to fight with society. The future of Belarus will be decided by Russia and the United States. Russia, in order not to suffer a catastrophic defeat, will try to agree on the removal of Lukashenko according to the Moldovan scenario of Plahotniuc and the coming to power of intermediate forces, in which Russia would have a controlling stake in Belarus, and the West would have a blocking stake. In this issue, Russia can be an ally of Germany, which seeks to prevent the strengthening of Poland and the formation of a loyal American vassal on its eastern border. How successful such negotiations will be, time will tell.

If Lukashenka remains in power


Under a favorable scenario, if Lukashenka remains in power, Russia will decide everything. She will need Lukashenka as a temporary measure to stabilize the situation, he remains in power for now, and for all his “eccentricities” he will be “explained” that he has only one way out - to voluntarily and gradually surrender power. He will have to immediately announce political reform and begin preparations for it.

With his participation, the preparation of a "transfer" of power begins, the purge of the pro-Western elite and NGOs, the provision of an opportunity for the pro-Russian forces to form a real political force and nominate their leaders, from which the formation of the pro-Russian elite will begin (there are more than enough such representatives in the current elite) with guarantees of its preservation. on the political Olympus.

Belarus will have to change politically, ideologically and economically. The information agenda in the republic, which Lukashenka lost talentlessly, must undergo serious changes. Through the leaders of public opinion, the media and social networks, instead of the ideas of "Lithuanianism", it will be necessary to promote the ideas of Russian unity and integration with Russia.

The political system should become more open and competitive with real political parties and the opposition, with the state ideology of historical Russian unity, an economic basis with the preservation of strategic industries in the hands of the state, freedom for medium and small businesses, more efficient state management of industry, real integration into the Russian economy without capture Russian structures of strategic industries and the imposition of Russian oligarchic capitalism.

It will be necessary to start an open dialogue with the Belarusian society and, in order to calm it down, preserve the state elements of social protection of the population that arose under Lukashenka. It is necessary to draw conclusions from his defeat and seriously work with the younger generation, which became the driving force behind his overthrow. Prevent the transformation of young people into zealous "Banderaites", explain the advantages of integration with Russia and the collapse of Belarus in the march to the West.

At the first stage, Russia, using its right to be one of the parties to the union treaty, can become an intermediary between Lukashenka and the opposition and moderate the ideas of integration of historically connected peoples that it needs. Further, there is a long process of treatment and education of the Belarusian society, the restoration of its Russian identity, and only then - a denser integration.

The solution of the Belarus issue is part of the strategy of ensuring the security of Russia from the most dangerous western direction. The issue can be resolved only if the Russian leadership does not flirt with the "eccentric" Lukashenko, but seriously tackles the issues of state integration in the interests of the Russian and Belarusian societies, otherwise Belarus will find itself where Ukraine is now.

If Lukashenka refuses such a scenario, he will face a prison in The Hague or liquidation, and the people of Belarus will face the unenviable fate of Polish slaves instead of the “prosperity” they expect in the European expanses.
Author:
Photos used:
Maxim Shikunets, commons.wikimedia.org
132 comments
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  1. Livonetc
    Livonetc 19 August 2020 09: 07 New
    10
    What does the article mean by the purge of the pro-Western elite?
    Who exactly do you mean?
    Officials or business?
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 19 August 2020 09: 14 New
      16
      Quote: Livonetc
      What does the article mean by the purge of the pro-Western elite?
      Who exactly do you mean?
      Officials or business?

      Думаю, что и то, и другое. А в целом - "Победитель дракона превращается в дракона". Ведь так хорошо начал, а потом....вот и дождался!
      Lord! Give wisdom and endurance to the Belarusian people, so as not to repeat the path of Ukraine !!!
      1. Gardamir
        Gardamir 19 August 2020 09: 43 New
        18
        Elena, are you really so naive that you think it's all about Lukashenka? Let's start with the little things. Why change the flag. Remember the Soviet Union first hung up the tricolor, then they put Gaidar and Chubais.
        If Lukashenka is fed up, why are these talks about privatization?
        And notice how the opponents of Russia calmed down, they are also the supporters of the West. Not a sound about panties and gilyak. But as soon as Lukashenka is thrown off, everyone will see who came to talk, down with the mustachioed tyrant.
        1. Egoza
          Egoza 19 August 2020 09: 53 New
          12
          Quote: Gardamir
          Elena, are you really so naive that you think it's all about Lukashenka?

          Of course not! But he had a GREAT CHANCE to preserve both the Soviet socialist heritage and to develop the republic further. He missed it.
          1. Kart
            Kart 19 August 2020 10: 36 New
            +1
            What do you mean missed? factories and agricultural workers are working, people are not hungry on the streets.
            1. IS-80_RVGK2
              IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 09 New
              -1
              Everything has its time. The Zmagars are still organizing their victory with total destruction, sale and theft, as in their brotherly Great Ukr anarchy.
        2. Nikolay73
          Nikolay73 19 August 2020 17: 53 New
          0
          ... I often disagreed with you, but not now ...
        3. Putnik119
          Putnik119 20 August 2020 09: 20 New
          +2
          Откровенно говоря, Белоруссии придётся пройти путь России 90-х и Украины сейчас. Слишком сильна вера в то, что " в Польше все живут в трёхэтажных домах". Пусть попробуют интеграцию с Европой. Все истошные крики о "Приближении НАТО к Смоленску" - туфта. Если белорусы негативно настроены к России - это не союзники. При заварухе будут стрелять в спину. Пусть лучше явно сделают выбор и определятся. Там будет видно. Правильно говорил Батька - не братские отношения, а партнёрские. Т.е. каждый живёт на свои и при соблюдении прежде всего своих интересов.
          1. VYACHESLAV PROSHAKOV
            VYACHESLAV PROSHAKOV 22 August 2020 17: 56 New
            +1
            There is no need to decide for the people of Belarus .... There are 89% of those who consider themselves Russian ... Will the Russians collude with the enemies of Russia and give this land to be torn apart by those who hate Russia?
        4. tank64rus
          tank64rus 24 August 2020 10: 02 New
          +1
          Движущая сила этой смуты чиновники, хозяйственники, студенты, интеллигенция и проч. мечтающие о хомутах себе на шею. Выиграет часть высшей элиты, часть чиновников и хозяйственников на ПЕРВОМ ЭТАПЕ, затем их постепенно отпихнут от кормушки, потом скорее всего или мусорный бак, или уголовное преследование за преступления совместно с ЛАГ. Потому, что те кто придёт к власти будут их терпеть, только пока не укрепятся во власти. Потом всё сработает по принципу ЛЮБОЙ РЕВОЛЮЦИИ, даже цветной, которая всегда пожирает своих детей, как говорят французы. Ну а про силовые структуры, особенно про начальствующий состав, даже и говорить не хочется. Вышвырнут и будут травить пока не раздавят до конца. В лучшем случае закончат наёмниками в заграничных ЧВК, в худшем в полной нищете. Всё это общие законы госпереворотов или "цветных революций". Других нет и не будет. Когда белоруссы говорят,что у них всё будет по-другому, это говорят наивные дети.
      2. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 19 August 2020 11: 04 New
        +5
        Quote: Egoza
        Lord! Give wisdom and endurance to the Belarusian people, so as not to repeat the path of Ukraine !!!

        I support, wonderful wish.
      3. Alekseev
        Alekseev 19 August 2020 11: 09 New
        +2
        Quote: Egoza
        Lord! Give wisdom and endurance to the Belarusian people, so as not to repeat the path of Ukraine !!!

        That's right!
        But ... a lot of work is required, because the average (peresichny? Ukrainian.) Citizen is that in Belarus, that everywhere does not have great wisdom ... For example, they yell and leave without thinking who will come and how it threatens those who are yelling.
        Or at protest rallies, not only in Belarus, presidents' hayat, etc., not in Stalinist times, you can do it quite safely! But they are afraid to speak out against specific owners, neighbors, so to speak, to demand higher wages, to bungle a strike, etc. As old as the world, the hope that the change of the king will put everything in its place.
        Рулит актив. Сумеет Лукашенко, организовать такой актив, пусть с нашей помощью, направить помыслы большинства в правильном направлении, пусть и нейтрализовав группу националистических "литвинов" с помощью силовиков и все будет хорошо. В противном случае возможен и вооруженное противостояние, Белорусь граничит и с Польшей и пр., и с Россией, также там поделен и народ, пусть не столь выражено, как на Украине. В войну на Донбассе в 2013 году тоже никто не верил.
      4. Matroskin
        Matroskin 19 August 2020 12: 33 New
        +1
        Yes, sorry for the people, only peace will no longer be there. The capitalists have already grabbed the throat and will not let go. It's only about who will carry out the privatization (the United States, the European Union, Russia or China).
    2. RUnnm
      RUnnm 19 August 2020 09: 14 New
      0
      Is there any difference between these categories?)))
      1. Livonetc
        Livonetc 19 August 2020 09: 24 New
        12
        Big.
        Corrupt officials are just parasites.
        Businessmen bring income to the state and create jobs.
        Можно конечно вернуться к эпохе новых революций с лозунгами "грабь награбленное" и раскулачиванием.
        But history has shown the dead end of this path
        Capitalism is of course a relic.
        However, pure communism does not work yet.
        China is a good example of the development of society at the moment.
    3. Boris55
      Boris55 19 August 2020 09: 18 New
      +5
      Quote: Livonetc
      What does the article mean by the purge of the pro-Western elite?

      The leapfrog with the constant shaking up of the cabinet of ministers of Belarus by Lukashenko, led him to the fact that he himself raised the elite, which hates him, with his own hands. By the way, we have the same thirsty for Putin to start waving his sword and cultivate his opposition to him. They may not be about Western or Russian, but definitely against Lukashenka. No one could sit on two chairs. The lot of small states will always be under someone.
      1. Snail N9
        Snail N9 19 August 2020 09: 29 New
        -11
        Он сделал ошибку- надо давить было, этих тварей с самого начала. Я прекрасно знаю, "кто" там митингует- предпринимательский, челночничевский-"купи-продай" и НКО-шный мусор, к которому присоединились из рабочих минских заводов, которым внушили, что повышать зарплаты не позволяет лично Лукашенко, и как только его уберем, то зарплаты станут как в Германии, это как помните у нас типа "шахтеры" за Ельцина касками стучали- ну и достучались до нищенского существования... Луке давить это все надо и чем быстрее, тем лучше и не оглядываться ни на кого. Давить! И быстрее!
        1. Boris55
          Boris55 19 August 2020 09: 37 New
          +5
          Quote: Snail N9
          He made a mistake - you have to crush these creatures from the very beginning

          "Guns - the last argument of kings"

          People management is based on six priorities. If the battle is lost on the highest priorities, then the hope for the power option will not lead to the desired result. Short-term success is possible, but the consequences of this success will be even worse.

          First thought, then action. As we think and act. As we act, so we live. By changing the thoughts of many, we are changing the lives of everyone.

          1. Campanella
            Campanella 20 August 2020 16: 00 New
            0
            That's right! You cannot correct anything here by force alone. We must use ideology and propaganda in a good sense.
        2. Lannan Shi
          Lannan Shi 19 August 2020 10: 42 New
          14
          Quote: Snail N9
          Luka needs to push all this and the faster, the better and not look back at anyone. Crush! And faster!

          About 10% of the population attended the protests. The number of active protesters cannot exceed 1/5 of the total number of disaffected. It's just that human nature is like that. And 1 in 5 is still extremely optimistic. If we recall the history of the USSR, the Russian Empire, then 2-3% of those who actively oppose the government, this is a very, very rare phenomenon. And it is proposed to put pressure on almost the entire population of Belarus? I dare to remind you that even under Mr. Schicklgruber they crushed a noticeably smaller percentage of Belarusians than you suggest.
          But to understand and forgive ... They will not understand and will not forgive. So Yes. For a while, the leaving of the basket can be postponed. Probably even 5 more years to last until the next elections. There is just one slippery point. Now the enemy, at least half but rather 3/4 of the Belarusians, Lukashenka, and only Lukashenka. Over time, all those who support him will be registered as enemies. Do we need such parsley when we ourselves turn the Belarusians against Russia? If for me, then somehow not very much.
        3. snucerist
          snucerist 19 August 2020 11: 14 New
          10
          Lukashenka really made a mistake.
          But another one.
          He stupidly followed in the footsteps of Yanukovych. You can't do that with people. You can't spit in their faces so brazenly and cynically.
          If Yanukovych had not beaten the students, there would have been no Maidan! At all! Russia would not lose Ukraine! The protesters would have made some noise for a while for the course in the EU, and dispersed. And Yanukovych would sit on the throne to this day. Who advised him to such stupidity as the brutal dispersal of students is not clear. But the next morning he received hundreds of thousands of students, not students, but their parents and the Maidan in addition. Was the man of a great mind? I suppose I also thought that you could sit on bayonets.
          Lukashenka lost his mind altogether when he gave the order to draw more than 80% for himself. What for???
          Just draw 52-53% - that's all! Victory! Clean! No sanctions, no blood! Everything is played up culturally in the media, everyone is happy, including the opposition (we almost won, hurray! Next time - definitely!).
          Well, power acceleration is a repetition of an unlearned lesson. Well, perhaps, he stifled the situation a little. Well, he'll sit on the throne a little longer. Days? Weeks? How to live with a people who hate you? How long can you live like this? I suppose he was planning a five-year term? A person does not understand anything ...
          And about crushing ...
          How exactly do you propose to Lukashenka to crush his own people? Than?
          Caterpillars? Tanks? Automatic bursts? Cannons? Mass shootings? At what number to stop, stop pressing? When will 100 people be killed? 1000? 10000?
          1. Alex777
            Alex777 19 August 2020 18: 00 New
            +3
            If Yanukovych had not beaten the students, there would have been no Maidan!

            Don't you know that Yanukovych didn't beat students?
            That the command for overclocking was given by Lyovochkin, the head of the Presidential Administration?
            And one of the conspirators, in combination.
            Lukashenka lost his mind altogether when he gave the order to draw more than 80% for himself. What for???
            Just draw 52-53% - that's all! Victory! Clean! No sanctions, no blood!

            Only he knows what the AHL was planning after the victory.
            As soon as he knows why exactly the level he wanted, what he had before. Maybe he argued with GDP?
            For such authoritarian regimes, an open demonstration of a decrease in popular support is fraught with a loss of loyalty to the security forces. There are different rules of the game than you think.
            And about crushing ...

            You won't be able to press. Nobody will give it to him. RF in the first place. But he himself can no longer. Only in little things if. hi
          2. Alex777
            Alex777 19 August 2020 18: 34 New
            +2
            By the way, here's what Makei's charges in Ukraine did:
            “The Belarusian authorities didn’t understand what was happening here, and their embassy in Minsk went through everything. The previous ambassador (Valentin Velichko, who died in 2018) was elderly. The new one - Igor Sokol - is fraternizing with the Poles here. Attends all Polish events, the Baltic-Black Sea Union, the Intermarium project. And not only speaks in Belarusian everywhere, but also says that this historical union of Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine will sooner or later become a reality, ”one of the Ukrainian political scientists tells VZGLYAD newspaper.

            https://vz.ru/world/2020/8/19/1055795.html

            And for such a scenario, the AHL desperately needed 80% support.
          3. Motorist
            Motorist 19 August 2020 21: 42 New
            +3
            Quote: snucerist
            Don't beat Yanukovych students

            Я Вам минус поставил. Вы прекрасно знаете, какие там были "студенты", столько лет прошло - а продолжаете разгонять фейк! Ещё "кондиционер" Луганской ОГА вспомните!
          4. mikstepanenko
            mikstepanenko 20 August 2020 16: 20 New
            +3
            Какое избиение студентов? Не было там ни одного "студента" моложе 30 лет, все они прошли подготовку в лагерях на территории Польши и трибалтии. И не было разгона, сами онижедети начали нападения на милицию. В тот день была передача Шустера, одна мадам из Батькивщины ворвалась на передачу и начала орать. Мы сидим а там на площади избивают наших детей. Шустер тут же сделал прямое включение с площади - там всё тихо. События начались через два часа после этого, рановато этой даме дали команду или она просто напутала. Кто мог знать заранее - только тот кто сам и организовал. Так что Янукович при всех его недостатках тут ни при чём.
            And the Maidan would have been in any case. He was already fully prepared by partners, people were trained, trained and delivered to the place. Material support for the fighters and money to pay fighters and extras were delivered to the site. Design work on the deployment of a US military base in Sevastopol has been completed. The fleet for this base has already entered the Black Sea. All that remained was to find a reason, which, if desired, is not difficult. Found a reason - I want a girl in the EU and lace panties.
        4. bulava
          bulava 19 August 2020 11: 39 New
          +3
          You write everything correctly. It's sad that you are being minus. It seems that we do not have Echo of Moscow here, but liberal cockroaches and climb with their minuses.
        5. strelokmira
          strelokmira 20 August 2020 17: 06 New
          +1
          He made a mistake - it was necessary to crush, these creatures from the very beginning

          I fully agree, while it seems that I stubbornly stood on the tracks of Yanukovych
          Well, what awaits RB after the Maidan - Poverty, devastation and components of NATO missile defense in the former RB
      2. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 12 New
        +1
        Quote: Boris55
        By the way, we have the same thirsty for Putin to start waving his sword and cultivate his opposition to him.

        Doesn't he grow it? Khabarovsk is just the beginning. It will be more fun further.
    4. Civil
      Civil 19 August 2020 09: 21 New
      -10
      There is only one scenario for Moscow:
      1. Lukashenka has nowhere else to go, how to lead Belarus to reunification with Russia.
      2. Dissatisfied people under pressure, organizers of discontent are under trial
      Well, the truth is there are also disadvantages - for part of the population of Belarus, Russia will become a gendarme, but nothing will be forgotten in a couple of generations. Well, there will be sanctions, where without them.
      But there is no choice but a tough re-stripping. Do not let go to Geyrop.
      1. Boris55
        Boris55 19 August 2020 09: 28 New
        +4
        Quote: Civil
        There is only one scenario for Moscow:

        Belarus is already part of the union state.

        In view of the critical situation in Belarus, we temporarily take control of this country into our own hands - we remove Lukashenka from management. A new constitution was adopted within six months. On its basis, a new multi-party (pro-Russian) parliament is being formed, and in a year the elections for the head of the republic, which is part of Russia, are appointed.
        1. Civil
          Civil 19 August 2020 09: 29 New
          -1
          Quote: Boris55
          Quote: Civil
          There is only one scenario for Moscow:

          Belarus is already part of the union state.

          In view of the critical situation in Belarus, we are temporarily taking control of this country into our own hands. A new constitution was adopted within six months. On its basis, a new multi-party (pro-Russian) parliament is being formed, and in a year the elections for the head of the republic, which is part of Russia, are appointed.

          And I'm talking about that, as a result, the United Belarus party is a part of the United Russia party, a banquet and awards.
        2. Alexey RA
          Alexey RA 19 August 2020 10: 44 New
          -2
          Quote: Boris55
          In view of the critical situation in Belarus, we temporarily take control of this country into our own hands - we remove Lukashenka from management.

          It might be better to try a business case instead of politics: due to the debtor's inability to repay the debt, the creditor introduces external management.
          And then once we already temporarily took over the management of the region of one country - before the referendum. The noise is still there.
          1. Boris55
            Boris55 19 August 2020 11: 24 New
            -2
            Quote: Alexey RA
            And then once we already temporarily took over the management of the region of one country - before the referendum. The noise is still there.

            What, where and when?
            1. Alexey RA
              Alexey RA 19 August 2020 11: 34 New
              0
              Quote: Boris55
              What, where and when?

              Reunification of Crimea.
              1. Boris55
                Boris55 19 August 2020 12: 27 New
                +3
                Quote: Alexey RA
                Reunification of Crimea.

                What's wrong with Crimea? Everything there is according to the law, incl. and Ukrainian. Crimea is higher from the structure of Ukraine and then became part of Russia.
          2. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 19 New
            -2
            These are all groundless dreamers. There will be collapse and plunder.
        3. snucerist
          snucerist 19 August 2020 10: 55 New
          +9
          The plan is good for everyone.
          But maybe we should first ask the Belarusian people - do they agree to such a misalliance? Precisely the people? Because only he is the only representative of the legal power in Belarus according to the Constitution.
          1. Boris55
            Boris55 19 August 2020 11: 21 New
            -5
            Quote: snucerist
            But maybe we should first ask the Belarusian people

            Then, when the emotions subside, then we will ask, but for now:


            Ссылка на видео: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uf7keyprv8&feature=emb_err_woyt
          2. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 22 New
            0
            The plan is not good at all. And don't hope this is too good for you parasites. We have kept you fucking zmagars for too long at our own expense. It's time to take you out into the cold and make you live for your own.
        4. A.TOR
          A.TOR 19 August 2020 11: 46 New
          +3
          Данное действие подпадет под определение "оккупация" и "аннексия". С последствиями
        5. IS-80_RVGK2
          IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 17 New
          -1
          Quote: Boris55
          Belarus is already part of the union state.

          In words.
          Quote: Boris55
          In view of the critical situation in Belarus, we temporarily take control of this country into our own hands - we remove Lukashenka from management. A new constitution was adopted within six months. On its basis, a new multi-party (pro-Russian) parliament is being formed, and in a year the elections for the head of the republic, which is part of Russia, are appointed.

          Nice grass you have there. But it won't. And there will be collapse and plunder.
      2. Sklendarka
        Sklendarka 19 August 2020 11: 59 New
        -1
        Quote: Civil
        There is only one scenario for Moscow:
        1. Lukashenka has nowhere else to go, how to lead Belarus to reunification with Russia.
        2. Dissatisfied people under pressure, organizers of discontent are under trial
        Well, the truth is there are also disadvantages - for part of the population of Belarus, Russia will become a gendarme, but nothing will be forgotten in a couple of generations. Well, there will be sanctions, where without them.
        But there is no choice but a tough re-stripping. Do not let go to Geyrop.

        Do you think you are writing?
        Some have already been cleaned, forgot the story?
    5. Vlad.by
      Vlad.by 19 August 2020 09: 24 New
      +4
      Field summaries:

      This is Sergei Tikhanovsky, the husband of the “future” president of Belarus and her ideological inspirer. Now he is in jail, arrested even before his nomination. She, like, for him.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm3jcGMpKYQ,

      And the sacramental question - for whose money is the banquet? The population, waiting for changes, has gathered.

      http://www.dal.by/news/19/14-11-19-8/

      I personally don't like this way of posing the question! I don’t want it to be as good as in Ukraine, and not only there. (Bulgaria, Georgia, Turkmenistan, all the Baltic states, Moldova ...)

      And yet, yes! Three aircraft from the Russian Federation flew to the Republic of Bashkortostan, and complaints from Ukraine began pouring in that someone had begun to give Lukashenko very good advice.

      https://yurasumy-livejournal-com.turbopages.org/s/yurasumy.livejournal.com/2777875.html?promo=navbar&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com%2F%3Ffromzen%3Dsearchapp

      It became difficult to work)

      And the protests began to subside. Now 30-50-100 people are "on strike". In different places.
      Maybe because working hours and on weekends will flare up again. But, the fact is the fact.
    6. iouris
      iouris 19 August 2020 12: 33 New
      +2
      Quote: Livonetc
      What does the article mean by the purge of the pro-Western elite?

      Нет "элиты" кроме западной. Никогда не слышал и не читал про "восточную" элиту.
    7. vkl.47
      vkl.47 20 August 2020 11: 26 New
      +1
      They walk along the Ukrainian path into the abyss and rejoice.

      1. baltiksi
        baltiksi 22 August 2020 19: 38 New
        0
        You would have shown Vlasovites under the Russian tricolor, for the entourage. Think what you write. We Russians in Belarus think differently. If there was a Russian government in Russia, then there would be no Bandera Ukraine and there would be no Belarusian Popular Front in Belarus.
        1. vkl.47
          vkl.47 23 August 2020 09: 18 New
          0
          The flag of creatures is corrupt, why pupolize? And my flag is white-yellow with black
  2. Senior seaman
    Senior seaman 19 August 2020 09: 15 New
    12
    I have a clear feeling that whatever the Belarusians themselves decide now, after a while they will regret their decision.
    Что интересно, у нас "России" тоже нет хорошего выбора. Либо "наш сукин сын" (который, к слову, не особенно наш), либо...
    1. The comment was deleted.
      1. Senior seaman
        Senior seaman 19 August 2020 10: 08 New
        +2
        Quote: Dangerous
        Nifiga he is not ours.

        I'm talking about this too.
    2. The comment was deleted.
      1. Avior
        Avior 19 August 2020 09: 59 New
        0
        P.S. Как говаривал один мой знакомый:"Страна непуганых иди....."

        original. Genius.

        Are you a supporter of Lukashenka?
        1. Evdokim
          Evdokim 19 August 2020 10: 07 New
          +1
          Thank you. good Only a friend's phrase sounded more effective, although he is not Abdulov.
      2. Senior seaman
        Senior seaman 19 August 2020 10: 09 New
        +1
        Quote: Evdokim
        And I have a feeling that in Belarus those who did not beat in the gut (for a beaten two are not beaten), and this is from 35 and younger, who did not eat the last horseradish without salt in the 90s, or forgot about it, wanted to drive ...

        Do you think it's wrong with us?
        1. Evdokim
          Evdokim 19 August 2020 10: 20 New
          +1
          Quote: Senior Sailor
          Do you think it's wrong with us?

          Yes, everything too. One 27-year-old thinker told me something about Putin, rubbed Stenka Razin with Pugachev, and I also want to scold him. hi
      3. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 19 August 2020 11: 12 New
        +3
        Quote: Evdokim
        And I have a feeling that in Belarus those who didn’t beat in the gut (for a broken one they don’t give two), and this is from 35 and younger, who didn’t eat the last horseradish without salt in the 90s, or forgot about it, wanted to drive ... So it started.

        It's just that the majority for some reason thinks that democracy and freedom are primary, and it is they that will ensure economic prosperity and income growth. However, this point of view is strongly supported by those who have achieved this prosperity (and who do not need competitors).
        На самом же деле всё наоборот: сначала потом и кровью закладывается фундамент под демократию, а затем на его прочной основе уже начинают отпускать гайки. Показателен пример Южной Кореи, которая смогла экономически потеснить старые державы: её экономический потенциал строился во времена таких лихих ребят, как Пак Чон Хи, Чон Ду Хван и Ро Дэ У, которые не стеснялись использовать армию и ВВС против массовых выступлений "борцов за демократию" (те же события в Кванджу). Или взять тот же Сингапур с его многолетним диктатором Ли Куан Ю: одна страна, один путь, один вождь. Кому что не по нраву - может уезжать.
        1. Evdokim
          Evdokim 19 August 2020 11: 22 New
          +1
          I agree with you in everything. First, we build a HOUSE, and then we make beautiful repairs, and not try to make a palace out of a barn. hi
        2. Cherry Nine
          Cherry Nine 19 August 2020 14: 21 New
          0
          Quote: Alexey RA
          Or take the same Singapore with its long-term dictator Lee Kuan Yew: one country, one path, one leader. Anyone who does not like it can leave.

          Yes, Singapore is an example of effective leadership fascism that always comes to mind first. But it is also true that Singapore was indeed exceptionally effective (and free), especially against the backdrop of the former common homeland of Malaysia. A sort of Malay Finland.
          It is difficult to suspect the post-Soviet comrades of exceptional efficiency by world standards. But the leader's fascism is much dearer.
          Quote: Alexey RA
          экономический потенциал строился во времена таких лихих ребят, как Пак Чон Хи, Чон Ду Хван и Ро Дэ У, которые не стеснялись использовать армию и ВВС против массовых выступлений "борцов за демократию" (те же события в Кванджу).

          You cheat. Gwangju is the time of Jung Doo Hwan, a great defender of sovereignty and, as usual, a thief (well, a thief by Korean standards, in our country he could be beatified as a great non-possessor). His political opponents, such as Kim Dae-jung, were dragged out of prisons by the Americans.

          These events have little to do with the economic foundation of South Korea. They hindered development rather than helped.
          Quote: Alexey RA
          In fact, the opposite is true: first, the foundation for democracy is laid with sweat and blood, and then, on its solid foundation, the screws are already being released.

          You're lying.
          First, with sweat and blood, an effective economy is laid, which allows you to create an effective army and not quarrel with the Americans, who are covering the country right now from the DPRK, PRC and Malaysia. Without the Americans, it turns out like in Albania, and with them we have to build some kind of capitalism.

          Capitalism implies the sanctity of property rights and high quality (contractual) law, and to it an independent (arbitration) court, possibly the High Court of London. Sooner or later, it all appears. And then - the end of the dictatorship.

          A dictatorship in which ownership is sacred cannot exist. A one-party system is still possible if it is effective enough, but it is farther and farther away from the VKP (b) and closer and closer to some grand CDU / SPD coalition.

          In general, this is the path that, for example, Kazakhstan is slowly following, and from which Russia finally turned in 2003.

          Quote: Alexey RA
          However, this point of view is strongly supported by those who have achieved this prosperity (and who do not need competitors).

          You're lying.
          Those who have achieved it do not care at all, and especially about RB. Another competitor to the United States was found, Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad, Maduro, and now Lukashenko.

          Americans have no problem making friends with dictators and absolute monarchs. The entire Middle East. If a character does not dare in the international arena and moderately sheds blood within the country, no one will have any questions for him. Only if he accidentally falls under the distribution, like Milosevic.

          Quote: Alexey RA
          It's just that the majority for some reason thinks that democracy and freedom are primary, and it is they that will ensure economic prosperity and income growth.

          Democracy allows you to remove a person who is obviously not going to provide economic and prosperity and income growth. And he is going to wield clubs, and, as they say, in an overly intricate way.

          And no one will give any guarantees for prosperity, of course.
          1. IS-80_RVGK2
            IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 42 New
            0
            Quote: Cherry Nine
            Without Americans it turns out like in Albania

            And with them as in Afghanistan. laughing

            Quote: Cherry Nine
            Democracy allows you to remove a person who is obviously not going to provide economic and prosperity and income growth. And he is going to wield clubs, and, as they say, in an overly intricate way.

            I am ashamed to ask, but I will ask nonetheless. And what is happening in the United States now, how to understand? What kind of democracy is it? Was Trump chosen because he is going to ensure economic prosperity? Or do they want to remove him from winning the elections because he is not going to provide this very prosperity?
            Quote: Cherry Nine
            And no one will give any guarantees for prosperity, of course.

            And then why the heck to start if there are no guarantees at all? If there is no bright future even in the project? So that some people with bright faces can live beautifully?
            1. Cherry Nine
              Cherry Nine 20 August 2020 10: 09 New
              +1
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              And then why the heck to start if there are no guarantees at all? If there is no bright future even in the project?

              Because now there will definitely not be a bright future, but there will be and there will be a club in the railway station.
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              And what is happening in the United States now, how to understand?

              What surprises you there?
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              Was Trump chosen because he is going to ensure economic prosperity?

              There is a protracted crisis of the political system, as a result of which they chose and choose from varieties of shit.
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              Or they want to remove him starting from the election victory

              Nobody is going to remove it, and this is impossible. The dances of the Democratic Party do not go beyond the limits adopted in the United States. Let me remind you that N. Pelossi's husband is not in prison, and she herself is not in Vilnius and not in a forest belt.
              Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
              And with them, like in Afghanistan

              In Afghanistan, everyone is the same, with the Americans, the Soviets and the British. A cursed place.
        3. IS-80_RVGK2
          IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 27 New
          0
          The idiots decided that the superstructure was the basis. Well, life through blood, pain, sweat and tears will teach fools to wits to wits.
  3. bar
    bar 19 August 2020 09: 22 New
    0
    Good article. Good analysis. I put everything on the shelves. Thank.
    1. Cherry Nine
      Cherry Nine 19 August 2020 13: 27 New
      +1
      )))
      Uh-huh. If you exclude tonality, then everything is said correctly.

      The protest was successfully drained, the end of Belarus. Either Luka remains and sits African, or Belarus receives a ticket to the Titanic of the Russian Federation from Putin. Victory options are no longer visible. On Sunday with all this festivities, everything was lost.

      The situation can only be saved by a sharp turn of circumstances external to Belarus. What one can hope for, but it is foolish to count on.
  4. Dante Alighieri
    Dante Alighieri 19 August 2020 09: 22 New
    +5
    Belarus at a crossroads.

    Believe it or not, I myself am now writing an article with the same title, although I have decided not to write on political topics. But I have a slightly different aspect, what should Lukashenka take directly to maintain power and reconcile the people. Specific proposals describing the consequences. I want to finish today. There will be many letters. Something will undoubtedly overlap, so please do not accuse plagiarism, just similar thoughts.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 19 August 2020 11: 09 New
      0
      Quote: Dante
      I want to finish today. There will be many letters. Something will undoubtedly overlap, so please do not accuse plagiarism, just similar thoughts.

      Spread it out, we are waiting.
    2. Kushka
      Kushka 19 August 2020 13: 12 New
      0
      Заинтересовало. Но пожалуйста учтите "успешные" наработки
      Russian leadership in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Ukraine and
      further down the list (Baltics, Kazakhstan, Azeibarzhan ...)
      Well, someone has to do the suggested actions.
      And who could it be?
    3. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 50 New
      +1
      Lukashenka is best dumped into the sunset. Yanukovych has already been waiting for him. They will grow gardening for a couple of bulba near Rostov.
  5. vvvjak
    vvvjak 19 August 2020 09: 25 New
    +1
    The issue can be resolved only if the Russian leadership does not flirt with the "eccentric" Lukashenko, but seriously tackles the issues of state integration in the interests of the Russian and Belarusian societies, otherwise Belarus will find itself where Ukraine is now.

    Well, finally it started to come. And before that no one understood this? It was imperative to wait for Lukashenka to bring the situation in Belarus to the point of absurdity.
    1. ship
      ship 19 August 2020 23: 00 New
      +1
      Quote: vvvjak
      Well, finally it started to come. And before that no one understood this? It was necessary to wait for Lukashenka to bring the situation in Belarus to the point of absurdity

      It doesn't reach now. And that's why. For more than 20 years Lukashenka has been kicking (blr) Belarus just because he is in conjunction with Putin. And this Putin-Lukashenko tandem is real, without him such a long presidential career of Alexander Grigorievich would be impossible.
  6. qQQQ
    qQQQ 19 August 2020 09: 33 New
    +6
    Russia would have a controlling stake in Belarus, and the West would have a blocking

    I wonder why the West should, in this situation, even share anything with Russia. You can share with an equal, but they do not perceive us that way, with our economy, unfortunately, we will not be able to claim anything.
  7. Maks1995
    Maks1995 19 August 2020 09: 35 New
    +6
    "Первый раунд противостояния он выиграл и силой предотвратил попытку экстремистов совершить путч, "
    extremists-putschists ... with weapons in their hands tried to kill the security forces?

    " если Лукашенко удержится у власти, все будет решать Россия. "
    Yes, we need such people with 80% or 99,9%. Only kagogo ..... fig, having won, he will be a puppet of Russia ???
    not small, he will think of something, he will organize the care himself, etc.

    "начинается подготовка «трансферта» власти, зачистка прозападной элиты"...э, мочить в сортире? Омон будет свозить в тюремные дворики и берцами по ребрам???

    Имхо, имперская мания величия какаято с идеализмом ... типа, "должен, надо, может, необходимо..." и все это "без захвата российскими структурами стратегических отраслей и навязывания российского олигархического капитализма."

    In general, for all the good versus all the bad. So who's against it?
  8. AAK
    AAK 19 August 2020 09: 35 New
    +7
    Лукашенко не приемлет большая часть народа Белоруссии, Макей или Тихоновская категорически неприемлемы для России. Сильного и авторитетного кандидата с политической платформой "между двумя полюсами" в Белоруссии нет. Нужна промежуточная, политически нейтральная структура на период 3-5 лет для стабилизации ситуации и купирования прозападного вектора движения. На мой взгляд - это может быть только "хунта" - комитет руководителей силовых структур нейтральной либо в определённой степени пророссийской ориентации. И очень серьёзная работа всех масс-медиа Белоруссии по перестройке системы политценностей, а также работа по оптимизации (в положительном значении этого слова) экономики. Плюс перекрытие границ, введение где-то на полгода чрезвычайного положения, системная чистка оппозиции, добывание компромата (политического и экономического) на её лидеров и связи с США и Европой с широкой публикацией. Одновременно формировать реальную пророссийскую партию, готовить будущих лидеров Белоруссии.
    If the Russian leadership needs stability in Belarus and real steps to create a union state, it is necessary to act quickly, tough, but without fanaticism, and it is imperative to provide the necessary information to the media. Well, Lukashenka himself, as well as his opponents, should be removed from politics.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 19 August 2020 09: 52 New
      +1
      Quote: AAK
      An intermediate, politically neutral structure is needed for a period of 3-5 years to stabilize the situation and stop the pro-Western vector of movement.

      the people must be convinced of this! by order, if it does go there, it will creak ... which could be much worse, with blood! if the dad will continue to cure.
      1. AAK
        AAK 19 August 2020 11: 18 New
        +1
        A cunning trick with the ears is possible, the main thing - there would be a will to preserve the state:
        1. Силами армии, МВД и безопасности (выводить тяжелую технику не нужно) занимаются административные, промышленные и гражданские объекты согласно "списку Октября", обращение по ТВ от лидеров "ГКЧП" - "Родина в опасности!!!", "Злые происки врагов..." и т.п., объявляется состав нового органа власти, сообщается о временном введении должностей военных губернаторов в областях и военных комендантов в городах, районах и на транспорте. Органы правопорядка и армия - на усиленный режим и повышенную боеготовность до особого распоряжения...
        The preservation of the validity of the basic constitutional civil rights, incl. the rights to assemblies and peaceful actions, as well as the temporary closure of borders (except for the official transit of railway transport and the passage of international flights along the established corridors), the introduction of a curfew and a special procedure for conducting operational measures, investigations and legal proceedings ...
        civil administrations remain, but are temporarily subordinate to military commanders and governors.
        2. "Изымаются из обращения" и Бацька и Макей с командой (первый - как допустивший предпосылки к дестабилизации положения в стране и "вышедший из доверия" народа, вторые - как "лелеявшая в интересах вражьих сил подлые замыслы пятая колонна");
        3. Из оппозиционных "болтунов" и обычных граждан - участников протестных акций никого не трогают, "отфильтровываются" и "локализуются" организаторы и руководители протестов и забастовок, лица отвечающие за "материальное обеспечение", финансы и "связи с заграницей", командиры "боевых групп" и иностранные "политические туристы". С ними плотно работают, возможно даже с применением спецсредств психотропного характера и потрошат "до донышка", все добытые документы, подрывная литература, данные о финансовом (иностранном и местном) обеспечении протестов, об экспортных борцах, записи с показаниями - на ТВ и в СМИ ("страна должна знать своих героев"). Работу иностранных СМИ не прекращать, но взять под контроль и негласную цензуру, добытую информацию "о руке Запада" в первую очередь сливать через них.
        4. Strikes should not be dispersed, in the absence of external funding and the need to feed families, employees of enterprises will return to their places. From Russia, you can (but without particularly loud media coverage) to throw several necessary orders.
        Well, further - according to the list. The only question is time, if no such events start within a week, then Belarus has been merged ...
        1. rocket757
          rocket757 19 August 2020 12: 02 New
          0
          Quote: AAK
          The only question is time, if no such events start within a week, then Belarus has been merged ...

          Everything is complicated \ simple. Old man there and so clever, clocked, so sho now everything should be simple, intelligible.
          Понятные цели и задачи ... и да, нам нужно четко заявить свою ЦЕЛЬ!!! Потому как соседи вообще ничего не скрываю, по крайне мере первичную цел, за всяким бреднями типа "проявить заботу о белорусском народе". Игра будет жёсткая, надо всё четко делать.
  9. dali
    dali 19 August 2020 09: 47 New
    +2
    Yesterday evening I went to the store, and there was some kind of information program going on.
    So ... they said in it that a fund had been created, they had already collected 1 million dollars. And already 100 thousand dollars were allocated to the strikers at MTZ.

    The West has connected financial levers without hiding.
    Well, Belarusians will feed you for a while, so what? Well, you put on Tikhanovskaya ... and then no one will feed you ... I'll just say it again, in the West your industry is not needed, not at all.
    1. Terrible GMO
      Terrible GMO 19 August 2020 13: 03 New
      0
      Quote: Dali

      The West has connected financial levers without hiding.

      The money is collected inside the Republic of Belarus. You certainly won't believe this.
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 19 August 2020 09: 49 New
    +1
    in any scenario, Lukashenka will have to leave.

    when and how, is that the question? yes, and who is new ??? this is already a question, questions!
  11. Mastrer
    Mastrer 19 August 2020 09: 49 New
    -3
    You are all smart, dear sir. They decided to cut Belarus, and now it is being decided whose oligarchs will cut it. All.
    1. dali
      dali 19 August 2020 09: 56 New
      0
      Quote: Mastrer
      You are all smart, dear sir. They decided to cut Belarus, and now it is being decided whose oligarchs will cut it. All.

      Maybe the Russian oligarchs make sense ... but the Western ones do not need it, although how ..., of course, it is necessary to destroy competitors and organize another anti-Russia.
      1. Mastrer
        Mastrer 19 August 2020 10: 04 New
        +1
        No capitalist can resist 300% profit laughing

        And this is not the worst economy in the post-Soviet space. And she herself falls into the hands, because the leader and ... (not very smart). Well, how difficult it would be to resist, both the West and ours.
        1. dali
          dali 19 August 2020 10: 19 New
          +1
          Quote: Mastrer
          No capitalist can resist 300% profit
          Of course it will not resist !!!
          For this, they will destroy all competitors in the person of Maz, Belaz, etc., and along the way they will do one more thing for themselves - they will shit on Russia (80% of the industry of Belarus works for Russia).
        2. Alexey RA
          Alexey RA 19 August 2020 11: 19 New
          +3
          Quote: Mastrer
          And this is not the worst economy in the post-Soviet space. And she herself falls into the hands, because the leader and ... (not very smart). Well, how difficult it would be to resist, both the West and ours.


          You know, I have already heard about not the worst economy, which itself is falling into the hands of the West. They say that Western companies are not stupid, they will not give up inexpensive qualified personnel and ready-made infrastructure. So they will buy up our industry, modernize it, and fill it up with orders. And we'll live ... you just need take the path of democracy - and everything will be right away.
          It was in the late 80s. How it ended - I think everyone remembers.
          1. Mastrer
            Mastrer 19 August 2020 11: 57 New
            0
            No no no. It doesn't work that way. The most important thing is the sales market. And Belarusian enterprises choose the future either in the variant of liberating the territory (west style), or in transition to their own vertical (RF style). And in that and in that case, the Belarusians, I'm sorry, go nuts.
          2. Cherry Nine
            Cherry Nine 19 August 2020 13: 38 New
            0
            Quote: Alexey RA
            How it all ended - I think everyone remembers.

            Remember.

            Boris Nikolaevich and his former colleagues in the Russian Federation and neighboring countries, except for the Baltic States, successfully defended the country's sovereignty. That is, the bourgeois were not allowed in and they plundered everything cleanly themselves.
  12. bulava
    bulava 19 August 2020 09: 53 New
    +3
    Quote: Dali
    in the west, your industry is not needed, not at all needed

    Более того, там сельское хозяйство не нужно и образование с медициной, и на белорусский язык там всем начхать и люди не нужны (для них они были и будут "Soviet people", для них арабские и африканские беженцы более предпочтительны).
    1. dali
      dali 19 August 2020 10: 00 New
      -1
      Quote: bulava
      Более того, там сельское хозяйство не нужно и образование с медициной, и на белорусский язык там всем начхать и люди не нужны (для них они были и будут "Soviet people", для них арабские и африканские беженцы более предпочтительны).

      Does the country of Belarus understand this, which quietly sit at home and, it turns out, tacitly support the coup.

      And I agree with the article, the Belarusians have a future only as part of Russia !!!
      1. bulava
        bulava 19 August 2020 10: 43 New
        +1
        Alas, at all times of the revolution, the minority did, while the majority was busy with work or household chores.
  13. Roman246810
    Roman246810 19 August 2020 10: 14 New
    -6
    And then we are waiting for the same messages as from Mali ..

    "We can declare that the President and the Prime Minister are in our hands. We have arrested them in their homes. Now they are being taken in an armored vehicle to Katya's army base," said the source of the news agency.
    1. bulava
      bulava 19 August 2020 10: 47 New
      +1
      Вот кстати хорошо, что вы про Мали вспомнили. Там каждый год - госпереворот. И за всем этим стоит "прогрессивное мировое сообщество", плакальщики из ООН и, конечно же, Франция, который выгоден постоянный хаос и разруха в бывших колониях
  14. Whisper
    Whisper 19 August 2020 10: 16 New
    +1
    I think that Putin will not give up Belarus to the West under any circumstances. 450 km to Moscow is too close. Now the Poles will raise rates to provoke Putin to send troops, but this will not be necessary. The dad will fight openly for his life.
  15. Russia without ...
    Russia without ... 19 August 2020 10: 25 New
    -2
    What's next?
    Then it seems something like this
    1. Russia without ...
      Russia without ... 19 August 2020 10: 27 New
      -4
      Unfortunately, it looks like here
  16. ELEZKIY
    ELEZKIY 19 August 2020 10: 26 New
    -1
    Russia is losing country by country due to the fact that we ourselves have a losing situation. the rule of an illegitimate president leads to a tough separation of the authorities from the people. all interests in the countries of the former Soviet Union are tied only to the grandmas. people feel it, that's why such an attitude towards Russia. Russian elections and referenda are rigged EVERYTHING! It is clear that the departure of Lukashenka and Putin is likely to cause more chaos. one can only hope that everything will turn out more or less normally. but this game of democracy is played by the rules of those in power. people HAVE the RIGHT to openly disagree. there is no need to LIE about an honest vote count. what makes you angry most of all is lies. 80 percent of Lukashenka is an unambiguous lime. our 70 percent for the amendments, Putin's victory in 18 of the same opera. Well, do it honestly, cancel the elections, appoint yourself as king and rule for the good of the people, if possible. but drawing interest rates by manipulating the opinion of the people is simply despicable. in short, horseradish radish is not sweeter. everywhere an ambush. By the way, when the news got out that Putin was one of the first, or the very first, to congratulate Lukashenka on his victory, I realized that he was fantastic in the eyes of Belarusians. SO damage the integration of Russia and Belarus! It is something...
    1. Yaroslavl
      Yaroslavl 19 August 2020 11: 17 New
      +2
      More than true
  17. Pavel57
    Pavel57 19 August 2020 10: 34 New
    +3
    Quote: Egoza
    Of course not! But he had a GREAT CHANCE to preserve both the Soviet socialist heritage and to develop the republic further. He missed it.


    There was no chance. Socialism is theoretically possible in a single country if it is a country the size of the USSR.
    1. dali
      dali 19 August 2020 10: 39 New
      0
      Quote: Pavel57
      There was no chance. Socialism is theoretically possible in a single country if it is a country the size of the USSR.

      I agree. There was no chance.
  18. Lumpen
    Lumpen 19 August 2020 10: 39 New
    -1
    Leave your great imperial chauvinism! Belaruskali has already started an indefinite strike!
    Для мирного урегулирования ситуации здесь только один выход ,на сегодняшний день, перевыборы,с привлечением наблюдателей со всех заинтересованных сторон!И признанием результатов этих выборов всеми "игроками"
    А время до этих выборов надо использовать для" борьбы за умы"!!!
    1. Cherry Nine
      Cherry Nine 19 August 2020 13: 34 New
      0
      Quote: Lumpen
      Belaruskali has already started an indefinite strike!

      Nothing, the food in the refrigerator will run out - they will get cold.
      Quote: Lumpen
      перевыборы,с привлечением наблюдателей со всех заинтересованных сторон!И признанием результатов этих выборов всеми "игроками"

      Grigorich has already said. Only through his corpse.
    2. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 19: 59 New
      0
      Quote: Lumpen
      Leave your great imperial chauvinism!

      What more? You can do without indulging in Velikolitvin's farm ambitions.
  19. bulava
    bulava 19 August 2020 10: 42 New
    -3
    Quote: ELEZKIY
    that Putin was one of the first, or the very first, to congratulate Lukashenka on his victory, I realized that he was fantastic in the eyes of the Belarusians. SO damage the integration of Russia and Belarus! It is something...


    That is, there was no need to congratulate the officially elected president of the fraternal union republic, which, one of the few, has been loyal to Russia for so many years?
    What kind of eyes are you writing about? Those 5% of the population who actively muddy the waters and openly dream of climbing under the NATO boot?
    1. Roman246810
      Roman246810 19 August 2020 10: 49 New
      -1
      5% of those who went to rallies are far from 5% of those who are against Luka ..
    2. ELEZKIY
      ELEZKIY 19 August 2020 11: 48 New
      +4
      Quote: bulava
      Quote: ELEZKIY
      that Putin was one of the first, or the very first, to congratulate Lukashenka on his victory, I realized that he was fantastic in the eyes of the Belarusians. SO damage the integration of Russia and Belarus! It is something...


      That is, there was no need to congratulate the officially elected president of the fraternal union republic, which, one of the few, has been loyal to Russia for so many years?
      What kind of eyes are you writing about? Those 5% of the population who actively muddy the waters and openly dream of climbing under the NATO boot?

      you need to congratulate. but it is more necessary to have information that there is no overwhelming support. it can be seen even with an unbiased look. the Belarusian and Russian authorities cannot draw the percentage of support less than the overwhelming one. otherwise questions arise. under the current state of affairs, it is natural to express popular discontent in one form or another. like it or not, the government, while maintaining its structure that does not take into account the opinion of the people, increases the split in society, leading the country to rather unpleasant, if not terrible, upheavals. this applies equally to Belarus and Russia. And the fact that Putin did so is not surprising. After a savory spit to the peoples of Russia in the form of the weaning of 5 years of life, the very thing is to spit in the soul of the Belarusians.
  20. Cucumbers
    Cucumbers 19 August 2020 10: 43 New
    -3
    And then there are also two options. If Russia gives these screamers actually part of its territory, it will become clear what awaits the country in the near future. If not, then indeed Russia is getting up from its knees, we have an independent policy, etc. Okay with Ukraine, then an independent country. Belarus is a part of the Union State and its separation from Russia is arrogance. Judging by the fact that labor collectives, with the filing of the leadership against Lukashenka, in turn rub their hands on state property and voluntarily does not want to follow the Chinese path
  21. Wolf
    Wolf 19 August 2020 10: 58 New
    +5
    The political system should become more open and competitive with real political parties and the opposition, with the state ideology of historical Russian unity, an economic basis with the preservation of strategic industries in the hands of the state, freedom for medium and small businesses, more efficient state management of industry, real integration into the Russian economy without capture Russian structures of strategic industries and the imposition of Russian oligarchic capitalism.

    It will be necessary to start an open dialogue with the Belarusian society and, in order to calm it down, preserve the state elements of social protection of the population that arose under Lukashenka. One must draw conclusions from his defeat


    This is the 2nd most important quote and what does it say?
    Syabri says that the disintegration of society is in full swing, not only among the Belarusians, but also in Russia.
    And that for the essential integration of ONE people into a union state, RUSSIA SHOULD CHANGE AND IN THE FIRST TIME !!!
    Oligarchically, capitalism is not attractive to anyone except the OLIGARCHS and the corrupt officials for the benefit of the oligarchs. At the same time, for the oligarchs, the people and the state are simply a means, a tool for robbery.
    Such Rusia is not attractive to anyone, nor to the people of Rusia. This is what happened in Belarus. THE LAST WARNING OF RUSSIA that it must change !!!
    If Russia begins to integrate with Belarus oligarchic robbery of the strategic industries of Belarus and the reduction of social protection for the population, Russia will eventually quickly lose Belarus in the near future, and will begin to decompose itself.
    Reform OCHIM NEEDS BELARUS AND RUSSIA, with this that in Belarus in the direction of the system of Russia, and in Russia in the direction of the system of Belarus.
    In essence, the collective rule is to bring the Slavic people to the Orthodox TRUTH, and this TRUTH is multi-vector, which means if there is no truth for the people there is no freedom here either. An oligarch in a Slavic Orthodox state who got his dengue in Russia to spend billions on a yacht and real estate from enemy powers, and often of the people in poverty, and without good social protection (pensions, health care, schooling, pensions and age, etc.)
    Results Rusia was on the verge of losing the people and the state of Belarus, not only because of the mistakes of the Old Man and his outdated system, but also because of his mistakes and not only because of mistakes in politics towards Belarus, but FIRSTLY because of mistakes, his internal policy to himself and his own TO THE PEOPLE!
    1. Wolf
      Wolf 19 August 2020 11: 20 New
      +3
      If someone does not know how to change and in what direction, look at the SWEDISH CAPITALISM IN THE PERIOD OF ULOF PALME, when the Swedes were the most progressive power in the world, this is especially for Gref, Chubais, Gozman and other ideologues of Kabalist perversion.
      1. IS-80_RVGK2
        IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 20: 05 New
        0
        Everything is somewhat more complicated. That is what the inevitable stage of development of capitalism has now arrived at. The world economy is heading for the abyss, and the world is heading for a world war. Such capitalism is an unstable temporary utopia.
        1. Wolf
          Wolf 20 August 2020 09: 22 New
          +1
          The world economy is sliding into the abyss, and the world is heading for a world war. Such capitalism is an unstable temporary utopia.



          The financial global pyramid system is driving the world economy into an abyss and the world to war. Credit interest systems of world finance gives rise to the need for a mindless increase in trade and waste of resources. The entire state and the entire economy, like every person, is in debt, because no one answers where to dengue banks so that everyone has debts to them and why no one can pay off debts.
          Because of this, there are regular world crises, and then war develops. wink
          These who created this system are all well aware of this, but they do not care for their important control over humanity.
          With such a financial system, the same thing happened if the world was a socialist economy or a communist one.
          Comrade Marx (Mordecai Levi) wrote a 1.000-page Capital, but he hardly touched the system with interest and money printing to the bank and did not explain that such a system is violent to all students, all the same, one form of ownership.
          But God removed from life ludi, those. tried it.
  22. bulava
    bulava 19 August 2020 11: 01 New
    0
    Quote: Roman246810
    5% of those who went to rallies are far from 5% of those who are against Luka ..

    Yes, yes, yes, we constantly hear this from our opposition, when there are ten of them, but they scream as if there are a couple of million of them ...
  23. Yaroslavl
    Yaroslavl 19 August 2020 11: 15 New
    +4
    no matter how the author hesitates to call the power in our country, the power of oligarchic capitalism ... well, that's the way it is ... but only for one moment, with such power, we can't see Belarus as our ears ... the people there are not fools and they don’t need a life like ours ... so Belarus will be lost as before Ukraine ... well, who needs to be friends with the poor and unpresentable, which we have is 90% of the population
  24. iouris
    iouris 19 August 2020 12: 07 New
    0
    А если это не "перепутье", а конечная станция? Не верится? Ну, значит, точно: это самое оно. Как выходить на конечной остановке не учат.
  25. sergo
    sergo 19 August 2020 12: 21 New
    -1
    Who pursues what interests?

    Did the leaders of the listed countries tell you personally about their plans?
  26. Pavel57
    Pavel57 19 August 2020 12: 41 New
    +1
    Quote: Lumpen
    Leave your great imperial chauvinism! Belaruskali has already started an indefinite strike!
    Для мирного урегулирования ситуации здесь только один выход ,на сегодняшний день, перевыборы,с привлечением наблюдателей со всех заинтересованных сторон!И признанием результатов этих выборов всеми "игроками"
    А время до этих выборов надо использовать для" борьбы за умы"!!!

    The fight for the minds is to get through to the Belarusians, that today their path follows the path of Ukraine.
  27. mark_rod
    mark_rod 19 August 2020 13: 18 New
    +5
    Further, there is a long process of treatment and education of the Belarusian society, the restoration of its Russian identity, and only then - a denser integration.

    С этого момента поподробнее... На каких примерах "лечить" белорусов? На примере сплошных воров во власти России? Сначала Россию лечить надо от антинародной власти и приводить экономику России в порядок. А уж потом обращаться к Белоруси. А так белорусы будут шарахаться от нас как черт от ладана...
  28. avib
    avib 19 August 2020 13: 23 New
    0
    This is such an interesting thing, this dictatorship ...
    Любая оппозиция уничтожается на корню и когда приходит конец (умер, скинули, "приемник" оказался народу не по вкусу, любая другая опция) - нету приемственности власти. Некому рулить. И наступает стране полноватый северный лис черно-бурого цвета. Диктатура и отсутствие альтернативы и сменяемости власти они такие, суровые. Простого выхода нет - или следующий диктатор или трудные времена.
  29. depressant
    depressant 19 August 2020 13: 36 New
    +2
    Here is the respected Author says the following:
    "Лукашенко просто упустил тот момент, когда его борьба за государство превратилась в борьбу за единоличную и ничем не ограниченную власть. В результате он стал препятствием в дальнейшем развитии государства, а также «недоговороспособным» элементом в глобальном противостоянии России и Запада."
    It is hard to disagree.
    Но как понимать утверждения, согласно которым, с одной стороны "...Без Лукашенко Белоруссия неизбежно уходит на Запад, поскольку_ пророссийской _элиты_ там _нет, он ее успешно зачистил за годы своего правления."
    А с другой стороны Автор выдвигает требование к Лукашенко предоставить возможность "...пророссийским силам сформировать реальную политическую силу и выдвинуть своих лидеров, из которых начнется формирование пророссийской элиты (таких_ представителей_ и_ в _действующей _элите _более_ чем_ достаточно) с гарантиями сохранения ее на политическом олимпе."
    Isn't the totality of pro-Russian elites in the current elite a pro-Russian elite?
    Is it there or cleaned up? For me, this collision contains a kind of contradiction, and I would like to resolve it with the help of the colleagues present here.
  30. U-58
    U-58 19 August 2020 14: 13 New
    0
    In reality, there will be something third or fourth ...
    Life is full of surprises.
    Here the question of how much the old man has changed (will change) inside and how much he can steer the situation even without regard to the vector of movement seems to be interesting. How would the king find himself naked overnight ..
    И вместо "нашего сукина сына" можно получить "английскую королевну", которая властвует , но не правит..
  31. Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 19 August 2020 14: 41 New
    -2
    The issue can be resolved only if the Russian leadership does not flirt with the "eccentric" Lukashenko, but seriously tackles the issues of state integration in the interests of the Russian and Belarusian societies, otherwise Belarus will find itself where Ukraine is now.

    Rejection of Lukashenko is the most direct path to the transformation of Belarus into a new Ukraine. If the crowd occupies the state of the institution in Minsk, then the president, the government and the army must be evacuated to another city, to the border with Russia, and a provisional government will be created as in the case of external aggression.
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 20: 12 New
      0
      Quote: Kostadinov
      Rejection of Lukashenko is the most direct path to the transformation of Belarus into a new Ukraine.

      And support for Lukashenka is also a direct path for the transformation of Belarus into Ukraine. The future of Belarus is the fate of Ukraine. Alas, this is inevitable.
  32. Alkatrass A
    Alkatrass A 19 August 2020 17: 10 New
    +1
    Полумёртвая модель Союзного государства Белоруссия-Россия - НОНСЕНС, которую можно точно охарактеризовать, как модель "союзное государство ВНУТРИ государства федерации" - жидовская система выживания.

    У Лукашенко есть единственный способ сохранения себя и своей семьи: - Написать Заявление Президенту РФ В.В.Путину "О входе Белоруссии федеральным субъектом России".

    Only in this case, Lukashenko will remain the Master of Belarus, but as the Chairman of the Republic of Belarus, in the likeness of R. Kadyrov - the model of Chechnya! How will he save himself and the people of Belarus from a catastrophe in the imagery of Ukraine.

    There is no other option. And, he has no right to delay this political process, since further forces from outside will elementarily destroy the state structure, and Moscow will no longer be able to help not only him and his family, but also the people of Belarus! Since a new Maidan coup is being prepared in Ukraine for the Independence Day of Ukraine!

    And, the Russian Federation will not have time to introduce the CSTO forces to restore order, since Ukraine, Poland, the Balts, and the EU have already thoroughly worked out a very openly bandit version of the overthrow of Lukashenka's power in Belarus.

    Как только Заявление "О принятии Белоруссии в членом Федерации - России поступит на стол В.В.Путина, и, априори уже существующего "союзного государства" Руководством ОДКБ принимается Решение о вводе Миротворческих сил ОДКБ в Белоруссию.

    It is not excluded that it can become an objective reality, in order to prevent another coup in Ukraine, as an obvious danger to Russia, and, the introduction of the CSTO Peacekeeping Forces into Ukraine, unilaterally by the Decision of the CSTO governing body.

    Time does not stand it! The Russian Federation must not allow another STRATEGIC MISTAKE made by V. Putin in 2014, which stopped the offensive of the Donbass militias five kilometers from Mariupol and along the entire front of Novorossia ... It must be corrected! The West will not give another chance!

    Именно в течение десяти дней на Украине и Белоруссии решается Будущее Руси-Русии! Иначе - "Новая Хазария" от Балтики до Чёрного моря...
  33. akunin
    akunin 19 August 2020 18: 12 New
    0
    It would seem that he strove to build a welfare state, did everything for the people, did not allow the formation of an oligarchy and the plundering of the country, and the "ungrateful" people so unfairly remove the head of state from power for many years.
    Lukash is the most important oligarch in Belarus.
    1. IS-80_RVGK2
      IS-80_RVGK2 19 August 2020 20: 14 New
      +1
      And you so wanted to squeeze a piece of state property into your pocket. But it didn't work. Sadness. laughing
      1. akunin
        akunin 20 August 2020 14: 13 New
        0
        Quote: IS-80_RVGK2
        And you so wanted to squeeze a piece of state property into your pocket. But it didn't work. Sadness.

        And even as a ride, I got a very big hump from state property ... a hump between the shoulder blades. I'm not living in Belarus (I got a hump from Russia).
  34. Rusticolus
    Rusticolus 19 August 2020 21: 31 New
    +1
    As some world experience shows, in order to become a prosperous economic power, it is enough to shoot and transmit with caterpillars only a small bunch of gorlopanov, approximately 0.0001% of the total population of the country. And immediately everything will go smoothly in the country.
  35. sidoroff
    sidoroff 19 August 2020 22: 17 New
    -1
    угу , это мечта всего белорусского народа - стать предпольем " обеспечения безопасности России с самого опасного западного направления".
  36. Alber alber
    Alber alber 20 August 2020 01: 52 New
    0
    Luka will squeeze everyone, now almost all the organizers at the places trained by the West have been figured out or have already been planted, as Bortnikov's arrival showed, the dad draws the right conclusions and listens to advice, the example of Gaddafi and Yanyk is not to his liking, Granny Merkel has already gone through the forest, and this advice can be transmitted power to himself in a circle back and forth, well, he cut off his bow all the way to the west, although this is correct, he still put Kolya on his feet
  37. Radius
    Radius 20 August 2020 04: 51 New
    0
    Quote: TerribleGMO
    Quote: Dali

    The West has connected financial levers without hiding.

    The money is collected inside the Republic of Belarus. You certainly won't believe this.

    This money is NOT collected in Belarus - a fact.
  38. Pavel73
    Pavel73 20 August 2020 06: 11 New
    -2
    Все прозападные и антироссийские закидоны Лукашенко имеют место только по второстепенным делам, и предназначены исключительно для демонстрации политической независимости Беларуси от России. Это необходимо для того, чтобы весь мир видел: близость Беларуси и России не навязана Москвой, а является естественным, осознанным и добровольным выбором подавляющего большинства белорусов. Однако в важных вопросах (язык, многоконфессиональность, открытая граница, военно-техническое сотрудничество, память о Великой Отечественной Войне, категорическое неприятие русофобии и национализма) Лукашенко целиком и полностью наш единомышленник. Подчеркиваю: не "наш человек", а наш равноправный единомышленник. Поэтому ни в коем случае нельзя допустить его незаконного свержения. Даже, казалось бы пророссийски настроенными силами. Если это случится, пророссийский "беломайдан" очень быстро перетечет в прозападный и антироссийский. Ибо сдержать антироссийские силы в Беларуси без авторитетного лидера не удастся, Запад поможет их раскрутить.
  39. vavilon
    vavilon 20 August 2020 11: 47 New
    0
    To save Belarus Lukashenka needs to act clearly and tough without looking back to the west and to Russia
    Otherwise, Belarus will, at best, face the fate of Ukraine in the worst case of Libya or Syria, but I hope it will not come to that.
  40. Captivity
    Captivity 21 August 2020 09: 08 New
    0
    The people in Belarus are pro-Russian. 95 percent.
    Any candidate who says that he is for Russia will win
  41. Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 22 August 2020 05: 33 New
    0
    "При отказе Лукашенко от пророссийского сценария его ждет тюрьма в Гааге или ликвидация, а народ Белоруссии — незавидная судьба польских холопов вместо ожидаемого ими «процветания» на европейских просторах. " все верно, особенно если сравнить судьбу Хуссейна, Каддафи и ...Асада
  42. tank64rus
    tank64rus 24 August 2020 09: 36 New
    0
    If Russia does not keep Lukashenko in power, then it should expect something similar in 2024, but much more insidious and sophisticated and possibly very bloody. Therefore, now we are talking not only about Belarus, but mainly about the future of Russia.
  43. Vladimir Balaev
    Vladimir Balaev 24 August 2020 09: 51 New
    0
    It's just an ordinary conflict - fathers and children - children of the sub-branch - go away with a mustache. And the children simply do not have brains and experience due to their age - there is arrogance and a cry. And Akela is also strong and wise - listen to the father - grow up -!
  44. Nikolay73
    Nikolay73 24 August 2020 16: 20 New
    0
    Tell me, comrades of those comrades who are now against Lukashenka, and what are the banners under which adherents of democracy and this lady who disagree with Lukashenka's victory go out (forgive me all the time I forget how she is there)? Or has the national flag of Belarus changed?