Military Review

Plan B, or the Tales of Grandpa Kravchuk

Plan B, or the Tales of Grandpa Kravchuk

Sometimes they come back ...

The truce with the inevitable implementation of Plan B, scheduled for October 9, as well as the political exhumation of the first Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk, who has already voiced the essence of this very plan, is a new strategy of show President Volodymyr Zelensky, aimed at increasing the seriously wounded rating on the eve of local elections in Ukraine. The Ukrainian leader seems to be saying to the nation: “Here is peace for you in Donbass! Here is an insidious plan to punish the rebellious rebels. And here is a political heavyweight for you, who is not at all what they were just now, and now will decide everything. " And Leonid Makarovich immediately began to "decide", reminding everyone where the germs of Ukrainian political insanity came from. Having crushed the numb political members, the former second secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine, in accordance with all the rules of dialectical materialism, gave birth to several rattling phrases that at first glance look meaningful, but in fact continue the glorious Ukrainian tradition of political idle talk. Kravchuk promised to revive the Budapest Memorandum and even expand it at the expense of Poland and Germany.

“I think we will not update, but expand. We will think about a new version of the document ... Let's start with the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine then laid down nuclear weapon, 175 missiles. Each missile had five warheads, in total - more than 1000. Each mine cost a billion dollars, those dollars, now it is about 300 billion ”,

- Leonid Kravchuk said to the Ukrainian media.

A few days later, the ex-president announced that the current complete and final truce is not quite complete and not very final, so in August all parties to the contact group must hold a videoconference to sign an agreement on ... a truce.

“Ukraine is ready to make concessions if the corresponding steps are taken from the other side. Neither side can issue ultimatums to the other. Ukraine is ready to propose and demand that the signatures that have been delivered be respected both by us and by those people who are subordinate to certain structures in those regions. So that we really, not in words, but in deeds begin a truce seriously and for a long time ",

- says Kravchuk.

Budapest format?

It is worth recalling that the Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Great Britain and the United States, was not ratified. If it could have been used against Russia, Kiev would have played this card long ago, but the United States responded unkindly to these attempts, saying that no one had used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, so there is nothing to talk about. How the memorandum can help Ukraine elude the implementation of the Minsk agreements today and how it can be expanded at the expense of Poland and Germany, perhaps only 86-year-old Kravchuk knows. The rest of the Kiev politicians desperately pretend that they also guess, but they are not very confident.

The Budapest memorandum was, in fact, an action to buy out a particularly dangerous grenade from a monkey. Moreover, Leonid Kravchuk himself, in an interview with Deutsche Welle in December 2014, claimed that the deal for Ukraine was extremely profitable, because

“Russia fully exercised control over the system: the so-called black suitcase with a red button was in the possession of Russian President Boris Yeltsin ... At the same time, maintaining nuclear weapons would cost about $ 65 billion, and the state budget was empty. The only possible solution was to give up nuclear weapons. "

In return, Ukraine received financial assistance from the United States, uranium for its nuclear power plants from Russia and promises to observe Ukrainian territorial integrity, which were not fixed anywhere, which means that they depreciated (like the whole deal) as soon as Kiev removed or destroyed the last warhead. Kiev has absolutely no reason or resources to revive the deal or somehow revise or expand it. Unless you obey the insane nationalists and start sculpting dirty bombs, but then, perhaps, the power in Kiev will instantly change. Nobody needs such excesses, including the EU and the US.

Useless clownery

All this fuss with the political exhumation of Kravchuk and his pseudo-meaningful threatening statements should be understood (in addition to pre-election activity) in only one key: Ukraine continues to systematically look for loopholes that would allow it to withdraw from the Minsk agreements with impunity or achieve their revision. For this, Ukraine is inventing more and more new tricks, from the inclusion of Kazansky and Garmash in the negotiating group (which predictably did not affect the situation at all) to ex-President Kravchuk as a strong figure. Unfortunately for Kiev, Leonid Kravchuk clearly does not cope with the tasks set, announcing, instead of conceptual steps to overcome the crisis, another crusade for the mythical gold of Hetman Polubotok.

I would like to understand what exactly makes Zelensky so desperately seek ways out of the impasse! The impression is that Ukraine is, in one way or another, under pressure either from the Russian Federation, or from the EU. Otherwise, why all these gestures? One could continue to regularly gather for fruitless "Minsk gatherings" and complain about the intrigues of the "aggressor country" and "militants". And so ... Something still happens, but what exactly is unknown to anyone. Especially the countless "insiders" and "analysts" who have a spy on every Kremlin tower.

In any case, no matter what happens in reality, all that so far have been honored in Kiev, in addition to the farce on duty, is the current truce. And its observance (or the consequences of a breakdown) are the only circumstance by which it will be possible to more or less adequately assess what is happening.
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  1. Lech from Android.
    Lech from Android. 10 August 2020 04: 37
    The former communist is rotten to the last stage ... the walking dead rotting everything around him.
    1. Tatyana
      Tatyana 10 August 2020 05: 04
      One gets the impression that in one way or another, Ukraine is being pressured either from the Russian Federation or from the EU.
      And why is it that the author of the United States was left on the sidelines about the pressure on Ukraine in the Donbas and Crimea? It’s illogical. Namely.

      Since 2014, the United States is precisely the MAIN subject of external control policy in Ukraine regarding the return to Ukraine of the same territories of the South-East of Ukraine and the Russian Crimea.
      Suffice it to recall Biden with his development of the Yuzovskoye shale-gas field on the territory of the DPR and LPR, when it was Biden who then promoted the issues of "cleansing" these territories from the local population in the case of Yatsenyuk, Turchinov and Poroshenko.
      Biden in the chair of the President of Ukraine Poroshenko.

      Actually, Washington's plans for Ukraine are known since the election race of H. Clinton for the US presidency, which she lost.
      Attack Hillary Clinton, losing to Trump in the presidential elections in the United States, in despair we will last our trump card, one might say, I SPEAKED about the true intentions of the US State Department in relation to Ukraine.

      In this case, H. Clinton stated the fact that the United States is not eternal due to the fact that there is the most dangerous and terrible volcano on Earth - the Yellowstone supervolcano, which can destroy the United States, and that because of this, the Americans need to look for other places for their residence in advance. And that Ukraine for the Americans is the most fertile place in Europe, which the United States just needs - a place with an excellent climate, like on the Atlantic coast of the United States. AND that the US State Department is there - to Ukraine - and they plan to resettle the Americans.
      But according to Washington's plan of residents in AMERICAN Ukraine - and this together with the Americans (!) - there should be no more than 20 million people.
      In this case, of the 40-45 million Ukrainians themselves, it is planned to leave 4-5 million. The rest of the Ukrainianswho themselves "will not be exterminated" in the civil war and do not want to leave Ukraine, the US State Department plans to forcibly relocate to North Africa and the Middle East.

      And, of course, no place is foreseen for the residence of Ukrainian nationalists in AMERICAN Ukraine! Those. in AMERICAN Ukraine any "Banderaism" will be done away with. For national analysis on the territory of the United States itself is not permissible in principle. For Washington, nationalism is just an ideology intended only for export to other countries.

      In this regard, Kravchuk's "peaceful" hopes for US assistance are somewhat understandable, but they are not entirely realistic.
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 10 August 2020 07: 55
        Bandustan on the territory of the former USSR will be created.
        with dumplings and embroidered shirts. founding father - Kravchuk L
        1. iouris
          iouris 10 August 2020 11: 02
          Quote: antivirus
          founding father - Kravchuk L

          He's not the only one. The role of "Russian" capital cannot be underestimated: we are partners.
    2. Ros 56
      Ros 56 10 August 2020 07: 38
      This little banderen has never been a communist, he has been an opportunist all his life.
      1. iouris
        iouris 10 August 2020 11: 03
        Everyone adapts. This is just opportunism. To betray in time means to become a politician.
  2. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 10 August 2020 04: 38
    political exhumation of the first Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk,
    What's surprising? The matter is clear and pleasant. "I remember how we lived gloriously. For a reasonable dad was in power and understood in life, and these clowns ... eh ..." And Kravchuk, the cunning one, jumped out of his chair in time before the country was plundered.
    Now he can broadcast: "And how was it with me?" And there they will also shake Kuchma ....... fool A promising country. fool
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Lipchanin
    Lipchanin 10 August 2020 05: 12
    Ukraine then laid down its nuclear weapons, 175 missiles. Each missile carried five warheads, in total - more than 1000.

    Looks like he was a round bad at school
    175 X 5 = 875
    Each mine was worth a billion dollars, those dollars, now it is about 300 billion ",

    Did he want to sell them to someone?
    And where does the prezikloun pull such specimens from?
    1. Hagen
      Hagen 10 August 2020 06: 33
      Quote: Lipchanin
      Looks like he was a round bad at school

      But not very.
      At two missile bases in the area of ​​Pervomaisk (Nikolaev region) and Khmelnitsky there were 176 silo launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles (silos of ICBMs). Most of them - 130 units - are silos of liquid fuel missiles, each of which carries 6 individually guided warheads. In the area of ​​Pervomaisk, 46 silos of solid propellant rockets, which carry 10 warheads, are also deployed. Thus, the units of the Strategic Missile Forces of the former USSR stationed in Ukraine could deliver 1240 nuclear warheads to the target. Their total capacity exceeds 680 megatons.
      In addition, in the Ukrainian territory there were two long-range aviation divisions. The bomber aircraft deployed in Ukraine could fly 492 long-range ALCMs into the air. In addition, there are about 100 air-based cruise missiles in stocks designed to replace weapons during repairs, scheduled maintenance, etc.
      In total, this way in Ukraine there were 1800-1900 strategic nuclear warheads. Plus, at the beginning of 1992, there were about 2600 tactical nuclear warheads.
      1. Lipchanin
        Lipchanin 10 August 2020 07: 07
        Quote: Hagen
        But not very.

        So I'm not talking about what really happened there. I mean the figures given by him.
        1. Hagen
          Hagen 10 August 2020 18: 09
          If the grandfather got confused in the details, then he can be forgiven for some inaccuracies laughing But in general, he cannot but possess the texture on the topic, because he was one of the active participants in resolving issues related to Ukrainian arsenals of nuclear weapons.
  5. Comrade
    Comrade 10 August 2020 05: 17
    Ukraine then laid down its nuclear weapons, 175 missiles. Each missile had five warheads, in total - more than 1000. Each mine was worth a billion dollars, those dollars, now it is about 300 billion

    Was a rocket mine in the Soviet Union worth a billion dollars?
    1. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin 10 August 2020 06: 06
      Well it is clear to you
      those dollars

      There were other dollars then, so small laughing
      But the fat was its own and huge shmat laughing
    2. Hagen
      Hagen 10 August 2020 06: 56
      Quote: Comrade
      Was a rocket mine in the Soviet Union worth a billion dollars?

      In general, what is the value of the price of the mine in those days? Is someone discussing the possibility of paying compensation for these costs? This is an empty verbiage that has become fashionable among some politicians to blurt out real problems. Ukraine had no chance of retaining nuclear weapons. In any case, it would have been withdrawn, because the interests of the main players, the United States and Russia, coincided at that moment. But if in those days they did not consider it necessary to pay compensation to Ukraine, today these issues are not worth the paper on which they are stated.
  6. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 10 August 2020 06: 49
    I would like to understand what exactly makes Zelensky so desperately look for ways out of the impasse! It seems that in one way or another, pressure is being exerted on Ukraine either from the Russian Federation or from the EU
    So, in spite of many "leading" analysts and political scientists, the author himself practically gave an answer. Moscow does not press, but sums up! This is evidenced by Kazak's statement about the senselessness of conducting further negotiations in Minsk ("I assure you with full responsibility that I do not intend to continue to participate in this endlessly lasting" performance "with a frank imitation of stormy settlement activities"). Berlin and Paris, all this time, only pretended to participate, without making a single claim to Kiev, on the implementation of previously reached agreements. Now we realized that Moscow is refusing to "pull the cat for one place" and something needs to be done. So they "offered breakthrough" solutions in their opinion.
    1. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin 10 August 2020 07: 10
      Quote: Vladimir61
      So they "offered breakthrough" solutions in their opinion.

      From which at the meeting, as always, they will refuse and will again "thresh their shock"
      1. cniza
        cniza 10 August 2020 13: 26
        What the owner says and they will do, now the team is pounding water in a mortar ...
  7. Dimka75
    Dimka75 10 August 2020 08: 07
    promises to respect Ukrainian territorial integrity, which were not secured anywhere, which means that they depreciated (like the whole deal) as soon as Kiev removed or destroyed the last warhead.

    The Budapest memorandum was, in fact, an action to buy out a particularly dangerous grenade from a monkey.

    Sounds like the opinion of a back door gopnik :-)
  8. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 10 August 2020 10: 04
    Leonid Kravchuk told Ukrainian media
    Not knowing how to count, vaguely remembering what happened then, but reviving at the word of the dollar, Kravchuk became the "guarantor" of the Minsk agreements. It is symbolic for Ukraine - why bury the treaty right away (abroad will not understand) when it is possible to wait for natural death.
  9. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 10 August 2020 12: 43
    They feel the soil, that's what they do. They send an array of signallers and look at the reaction both inside and outside. Because there is no plan.
  10. cniza
    cniza 10 August 2020 13: 24
    “I think we will not update, but expand. We will think about a new version of the document ... Let's start with the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine then laid down its nuclear weapons, 175 missiles. Each missile had five warheads, in total - more than 1000. Each mine cost a billion dollars, those dollars, now it is about 300 billion ”,

    True Selyuk and Ragul ...
  11. ReferralWOT
    ReferralWOT 10 August 2020 15: 00
    Kiev does not need the implementation of Minsk, therefore Kravchuk is another deputy chairman
  12. Cristall
    Cristall 11 August 2020 00: 22
    Everywhere and always make a major mistake
    BM did not require ratification.
    When will experts on interstate documents work, or will the propagandists push their version to the people?
  13. Ivan Tixiy
    Ivan Tixiy 11 August 2020 09: 02
    Kravchuk is a typical representative of the late Soviet party nomenclature, unprincipled, disgusting ... who made their careers a betrayal. Now he just got the money and is working it off. Like Gorbachev, he can talk for hours and nothing. Zelensky and his team simply did not survive either the Ilovaisky or Debaltsevsky boilers. Hiding behind their backs, the US and EU consider themselves safe. But that's not the case ....
  14. Vasya17
    Vasya17 12 August 2020 09: 06
    The heart-rending screams of Leonid Kalashnikov, head of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, about the fact that Russia should not be shy about supplying weapons to the L / DPR, sounded like music. As, however, the angry replies of the deputy head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak that negotiations at the level of advisers are not effective. It can be seen that Russia is gradually beginning to bake the tactics of the West to de-escalate the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, Dmitry Kozak once personally got acquainted with such tactics in 2003, when the Russian Federation put pressure on Moldova, demanded federalization for Gagauzia and "PMR", but suddenly ate hearty tuna.
    In the maneuver of the Russians, Moldova was then obliged to demobilize the army and deploy Russian troops with a mandate of peacekeepers in Transnistria. And also to ensure that the special forces and police are formed on a territorial basis and cannot operate throughout the federation. At the same time, Chisinau had to ensure the free movement of goods and funds throughout the new formation and pay off the debts of Transnistria for gas.

    And in return, Gagauzia and the "PMR" could block movement into NATO and the EU, rearmament of the army and disrupt the budget, simply by not giving a vote to the Federation Council. Putting on your neck the Russians, the police of collaborators who collaborated with the Russians, a military group, the honorary right to pay the gas debts of the separatists and in no case tighten the nuts of customs control, tax collections and other boring economic things. This is called a compromise, according to Moscow.

    Moldova should, in fact, pay for the "peacekeeping" operation of the Russians, and they, through their proxies, received leverage over the whole country, physically being in a cut-off piece. And yes - the second state Russian, of course. And the amount of debts for gas from the Transnistrian region is a mere trifle: $ 6 billion. Or half of Moldova's GDP. Then the US embassy intervened and the ambassador popularly explained to President Voronin how the cancer would end for Moldova, which could veto key decisions related to the budget and defense, while Moscow's military presence in the region remains. And they turned on their favorite mode in interaction with those who went - “two steps to the left, two steps to the right, one step forward and two steps back”.

    We have just looked - the agreement has already been initialed, but there are problems with the status of the Russian language. Would you mind moving over and deciding his status in a referendum? Let's get money in the morning and chairs in the evening. But of course, it’s to amend the Constitution and the ruling elite may not understand. And what will happen if the mandate of the peacekeepers expires, and Gagauzia and the "TMR" do not want them to leave, and again introduce a veto?

    So Dmitry Kozak flew between Chisinau, Kiev and Moscow, and already a couple of times they were going to sign the memorandum, but something prevented the parties. "Maybe three children, or maybe the headmaster." And the author of the memorandum flew home upset. For who can forbid the proud and wealthy northern Natasha, who freezes her old people on a real pension for 10 years, to keep the next hicks for a couple of hundred million a year and pay them for gas? No one. Get up off your knees Russia, generous soul. The inhabitants of the proud unbroken Transnistria continued to confirm their diplomas in Chisinau, and their leaders were not allowed to travel to the EU - if only my homeland shone from Slobozia to Kamenka!

    Now, having already tasted American diplomacy once, Dmitry writes a letter to Merkel and Macron that Ukraine is making Russians nervous and negotiations are not effective. Experienced where the wind blows. You say hurtful words, Dmitry. Here in Ukraine, by the way, there is a replacement in the field - instead of one pensioner, who is 81 years old and he is somewhat tired of listening to the ravings of your tame jackals for many months, we have a new face. He is 86 and he also knows how to twist eggs, promise money in the morning, and chairs in the evening. And he is also a pensioner and is responsible, if anything, for a little more than nothing. And behind him he has years of communication about a bright future and the image of the builder of communism, and then morning in churches and history, like writing a book about the Holodomor at night. Have a nice chat! About whether - first the elections or the border, first the security or the special status.

    And it is clear where everything is going with its threats in the fall - for the elections in the USA, the Caucasus-2020 exercises and local ones in Ukraine. So, Ukraine declares with confidence: we have withdrawn heavy weapons and even forbidden to dig; - to tell how from the DRG garbage truck they fire at Lugansk in order to arrange an escalation will not work very well. And the drone from which the VOG fell and wounded two "people's militiamen" can be bought at any military store.

    Meanwhile, the United States wants to provide assistance to Ukraine on an ongoing basis, like Israel and Egypt. So far, $ 300 million a year, but the main thing here is to start. And they have not yet taken it properly: 300 million dollars a year for the United States is the budget of the police department of a city with a population like Poltava (because the budget of the New York police is already 6 billion dead presidents). And since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has received just over $ 2 billion through the Pentagon. And not only with hundreds of Dart missiles, boats, sniper rifles and the largest group of counter-battery radars outside the US, this support has become key to stability in Eastern Europe.

    There are many things that are less talked about and less written about, like the training of the MTR or sappers, but they are more critical to the overall effectiveness of the Armed Forces.

    The same access to a satellite hub for communications, objective monitoring data from satellites or secret intelligence through closed channels.

    The same strategic UAVs from Sicily for 3500 km with an hour of flight of 30 thousand dollars - almost every week or two vehicles hover over the contact line, monitor the withdrawal zone, radar activity, brigade depots and tactical rear for a trip to Avdeevka in 2 weeks.

    The same regular Poseidon passages over the coast: activity in ports, movement of submarines, the intensity of exchange, traffic of military transport ships - everything that indirectly may indicate the preparation of an escalation.

    The JMTG-U mission, where US and Canadian instructors trained 13 battalions and battalion tactical teams at training ranges, from patrol and medical training to unit-level coordination, on a turnkey basis. In 2020, 4 brigades will be trained at once - right this minute, while you are reading these lines, the 56th motorized infantry is learning to force a water barrier and is conducting battalion maneuvers.

    60 ambulances BURTEK B4731 with oxygen supply systems, stabilization of the seriously wounded and medical kits are generally an invaluable option during the war of attrition.

    For $ 300 million of the third generation of secure digital, satellite and tropospheric communications - from government lines to tactical levels.

    At the same time, the United States is strictly opposing Russian aggression in Eastern Europe - while negotiations are only underway on the purchase and supply of anti-ship missiles, precision weapons for ships, air defense systems and heavy weapons to Ukraine. This is the seventh year of the invasion.

    Not half a thousand tanks, as in the "republics" in the mines, were not dug up. No self-propelled guns more than that of Britain appeared from the wind. Not the latest electronic warfare means, except for the French for currency, were born.

    And now the functionaries of the Kremlin regime, who stuffed into the L / DPR how many cannon and armored vehicles, which would easily be enough to occupy the Czech Republic and Bulgaria, if they were not in NATO, crowed about the supply of weapons. Why are you going to supply something, if not a secret?

    T-72B3 - already were, burned near Debaltseve near the power line and were captured during the breakthrough of the encirclement near Ilovaisk.

    "Tornadoes" on Victory and the headquarters in Kramatorsk were. And in that direction, too, the packages went away, we have 70 "Tornadoes" - we can repeat. We don't want to, but we will if we have to.

    Downed drones are numbered in dozens, and you were not delivered straight arms to make drone.

    DAP had heavy flamethrower systems. "Krasnopoli" were - both in the south and on Bakhmutka. "Cornets" were. It is not so easy to teach how to use the Krasnopol collaborators in combination (with means of target illumination), and you cannot release a $ 40 projectile for each landing - the navel will be untied.

    You will bring OTRK - to fantasize how to bring a 40-million-strong country to its knees with several dozen high-precision missiles? True, Serbia the size of two Ukrainian regions and Iraq required hundreds of missiles and thousands of sorties. And for this they will turn off payment systems, introduce oil for food and sectoral against debt.

    There is nothing to threaten - everything has already happened. You can, of course, try to increase the number, but the USA and Canada can also increase aid - they will spend not as one city department, but as three. And in Ukraine itself, there is enough money for French boats with helicopters, and for electronic warfare systems, and for "Darts" - pressure will increase, purchases will increase. The economic superpower of the Russian Federation, which competes with Mexico and Turkey, is it really necessary?

    It will not be possible to bring a country of 40 million to its knees by those who fell at the front, which are less per year than the number of tourists drowning in water during the season. You will not be able to scare, just as you will not be able to scare Moldova.

    And the supply of weapons has already been - for a couple of tank divisions. And how are you doing? “Small dachas” taken? Maybe it's time to really sit down at the negotiating table?

    But since you don't really want to come to an agreement, Leonid Makarovich will tell you about the “Minsk”, who does not know any alternatives, and how ships sail across the open spaces of the Maly Theater.

    And we hope the boats and rockets from Washington will arrive before the start of the new fiscal year in the US in the fall. Because a pistol and Leonid Makarovich can achieve more than Leonid Makarovich alone. The strategy of both Ukraine and the United States regarding the conflict in Donbass has not changed - the withdrawal of troops, security and elections. The ball is once again on the side of the Kremlin, but apparently they like to get rich under the sanctions.
    1. BAI
      BAI 12 August 2020 15: 39
      Rare nonsense. I have not seen this for a long time.
    2. Radius
      Radius 13 August 2020 07: 34
      ... is getting rich with a thought :)
    3. Alexey Kurilov
      Alexey Kurilov 16 August 2020 09: 13
      Vasya! Why are you so attached to other people's tits? It's a shame After all, adults are already supposedly non-profit
  15. BAI
    BAI 12 August 2020 15: 36
    175 missiles. Each missile carried five warheads, in total - more than 1000.

    That he has special arithmetic. Actually, 875 turns out. Missile silos have never cost a billion dollars a piece.
    This immediately - on account of whether you can believe his words.
  16. nnz226
    nnz226 13 August 2020 21: 21
    For the unfinished Bandera kravchuk, a lamppost with a noose has been crying bitterly for 30 years already, it can't wait!