Military Review

Turkish historian: Russia will not allow war between Azerbaijan and Armenia to break out

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Turkish historian: Russia will not allow war between Azerbaijan and Armenia to break out

The main reason for the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. It arose because of the demographic policy of tsarist Russia and the problems that arose after the collapse of the USSR. But Russia today will not allow a new war to flare up in Transcaucasia.


Historian from Turkey Burak Kolot told Vesti.az.

The expert believes that neither Russia nor the international community as a whole is interested in full-scale military operations in the region.

Moreover, Russia plays a decisive role in this issue, since the United States, due to a number of internal and external circumstances, will not support one of the parties to the conflict, as it was with Georgia or Ukraine. One should also take into account the position of Turkey, which is always ready to support Baku.

Russia, like the United States, will not provide explicit support to one of the parties, since it is beneficial for it to maintain normal relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan so that they do not reorient themselves to the West.

According to the expert, an increase in tension in the region is permissible for Moscow, but it will not allow it to lead to war even for the sake of an increase in arms sales to both sides of the conflict. Turkey will also not push Baku to war and support Azerbaijan in inciting war, it is not profitable for it.

And the parties to the conflict themselves, Baku and Yerevan, understand that their armed forces and economies are not ready to conduct long-term full-scale military operations.
Photos used:
Ministry of Defense of Armenia
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  1. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 4 August 2020 12: 05 New
    +3
    Baku and Yerevan understand that their armed forces and economies are not ready to conduct long-term full-scale military operations.
    Who knows, who knows ... How can it turn!
    1. Sefevi2020
      Sefevi2020 4 August 2020 12: 18 New
      +2
      Quote: Uncle Lee
      Who knows, who knows ... How can it turn!

      I agree. Much depends on Pashinyan. If he again conducts an anti-Russian policy and when he reaches the red line (and Russia does not need an American or NATO base in the south) then Azerbaijan will receive carte blanche and the green light from the Kremlin to start the war. Azerbaijan by 3 times (2016 victory, 2020 victory and ... ... ... victory) the Armenians will learn the lesson that without Russia they have nowhere and no one will save them.

      The author is right that it is difficult for Russia to make a choice. In the case of open support from one side, it loses either the base (IMPORTANT) or loses its strategic partner.

      Time will tell...………………..
      1. apro
        apro 4 August 2020 12: 29 New
        +1
        Quote: Sefevi2020
        loses either the base (IMPORTANT) or loses a strategic partner.

        An important base surrounded by an important strategic partner ??? very bold statement ...
        1. Sefevi2020
          Sefevi2020 4 August 2020 12: 35 New
          +5
          Quote: apro
          An important base in the environment?

          Thanks to the Russian base in Armenia, Russia can control and know everything that happens in the Middle East. Blood has shed for this piece of land since the time of Peter.

          Quote: apro
          important strategic partner ???

          Billions of orders for armaments. CALCULATION
          Pipe with oil Azerbaijan-Novorossiysk
          It is enough to look at the trade turnover for 2019.

          Quote: apro
          very bold statement ...

          Ask yourself what will happen if Kazakh oil goes to Azerbaijan in large volumes, as well as Turkmen gas, a pipeline across the Caspian Sea.
          Is it worth feuding with Azerbaijan?
          1. apro
            apro 4 August 2020 12: 40 New
            +2
            The question is how to get to this base? Is it surrounded by not very friendly countries ... and what does it mean to control ... does not allow any actions? Or is it just watching?
            1. Sefevi2020
              Sefevi2020 4 August 2020 12: 46 New
              +4
              Quote: apro
              The question is how to get to this base?

              Calm
              1. Astrakhan - ship - Iran and further along the road.
              2. Through treacherous Georgia.
              3. Air.

              Quote: apro
              and what does it mean to control ... does not allow any actions? or just observes?

              You yourself answered.
              Guess what would have happened to the Armenians in 2016 in April and also in the summer of 2020, if there hadn't been a Russian base in Armenia ??????
              1. apro
                apro 4 August 2020 12: 52 New
                -1
                It is clear to get to the base of the problem in case of any exacerbations.
                And what will happen to Armenia ... this is its own affair. For the aggravation of the situation, each participant is to blame ... there are no victims there, all the more an independent state pursuing its own line.
  2. LMN
    LMN 4 August 2020 12: 08 New
    0
    It feels like it will smolder there ... until Russia comes yes
    1. For example
      For example 4 August 2020 12: 17 New
      -9
      The communists torn apart the country where Azerbaijanis, Armenians, Georgians and all the peoples of Dagestan have lived for centuries.

      Divided the country along ethnic lines.

      This is all European infection and nationalism and Nazism and communism. All the rubbish from the Europeans
      1. Thrifty
        Thrifty 4 August 2020 12: 49 New
        +1
        For example -call with a minus to you in history! !!! By the way, the exam as passed - from the ninth time wassat ??
    2. Sefevi2020
      Sefevi2020 4 August 2020 12: 21 New
      +1
      Quote: LMN
      that it will smolder there

      There is a manual from the Russian Foreign Ministry. I read it personally. That is why the conflict in Karabakh was created so that it smoldered and not burned.
      1. Yura
        Yura 4 August 2020 13: 21 New
        -1
        Quote: Sefevi2020
        There is a manual from the Russian Foreign Ministry. Read personally

        Do you work for the Foreign Ministry? Do you think Gorbachev wrote this or Shevardnadze? I also read it personally, and I claim that no such manual exists, but I read this manual anyway. wink
  3. prior
    prior 4 August 2020 12: 14 New
    0
    And what about Karabakh, Russia? What is Tsarist, what is Soviet?
    This is an Armenian-Azerbaijani prehistoric get-together, let them sort it out among themselves.
    Do the Turks want to drag Russia into this "swamp"?
    No really - no really, nafig - do not care.
    1. Sefevi2020
      Sefevi2020 4 August 2020 12: 38 New
      +2
      Quote: prior
      And what about Karabakh, Russia?

      Karabakh agrees and Armenia is needed. For many reasons. In the first place, a lot belongs to Russia. The debt was paid. And also Armenia and the base is a very important point. From this base (in Armenia), Russia can control 1 countries.
      1. prior
        prior 4 August 2020 13: 46 New
        -1
        Different bases are needed, all sorts of bases are important. I don’t mind.
        But. Russia's active support for Armenia will immediately trigger a conflict with Turkey, the NATO country that controls the straits. And these are completely different layouts.
  4. Thrifty
    Thrifty 4 August 2020 12: 47 New
    +1
    The Turks are the ones who provoke the Armenians into hostilities - their F16s have already flown almost 60 kilometers to Yerevan, in Azerbaijan itself there is a lot of Turkish equipment! So, Russia is an extra at the moment, and it is the Turks who want to play the first violin.
    1. uranium
      uranium 4 August 2020 23: 37 New
      0
      Quote: Thrifty
      their f16 already flew almost 60 kilometers to Yerevan

      from the border of Turkey to Yerevan less than 30 km. So any plane raised into the air from Turkey can be considered an act of aggression))
  5. bzbo
    bzbo 4 August 2020 13: 53 New
    0
    To reorient to the west is to change orientation?
    1. abrakadabre
      abrakadabre 4 August 2020 14: 00 New
      0
      Exactly. Her very.
  6. Sarkazm
    Sarkazm 4 August 2020 15: 59 New
    0
    Briefly and soberly about the situation without nonsense. Although the situation has already exhausted itself. I would only add on my own that not only the economies do not allow Azerbaijan or Armenia to start full-scale hostilities, but also the internal political situation - no one wants to risk their power, neither Aliyev nor Pashinyan. Each of them has their own tasks, but both need to sit in the chair as long as possible.
    Azerbaijan is the victim here and we are constantly discussing stuffing about its preparation for war, but the real picture shows that it is either not preparing for war, or simply not ready. And Armenia is so happy with everything; it controls Karabakh itself and the security belt around it by occupying the border regions.

    It is interesting to see what the richer Azerbaijan buys from foreign countries, but otherwise I remain in my opinion, both sides are not warriors, so there is no need to attach particular importance to their cries, at least now and in the near future.