Military Review

The ruble is against everyone. Why it falls and why it should strengthen

121
The ruble is against everyone. Why it falls and why it should strengthen

Wrong season



Since mid-July, we have been observing the slide of the ruble to the levels to which it fell in the spring, during the days of pandemic panic. And again, both in the ranks of analysts and among the inhabitants, there was talk about the impending default and the fall of the national currency to 100 rubles per euro or dollar.

At the same time, the main reason for the rollback of the ruble is no longer called the coronavirus and not the strict quarantine that drove the economy into a corner. And not even oil prices, which are kept at an acceptable level above $ 40 per barrel. The seasonal factor and the purchase of foreign currency by the population are to blame.

This argument, voiced not only by so-called independent experts, but also by officials of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, is not just dubious. It should be considered dangerous, since it can hide the true reasons for exchange rate fluctuations. About them below, but for now, a few words about the seasonal factor.

Allegations about the massive purchase of foreign currency by Russians traveling on vacation do not stand up to scrutiny. Firstly, the flow of tourists abroad has fallen not only at times, but almost to zero. Unless, of course, you do not take into account the public of a special kind, for which the borders, it seems, did not close even under the most severe quarantine.

By definition, in Crimea and the North Caucasus, dollars and euros are not needed, it is another matter that there are now great difficulties with payments by bank cards. But this has nothing to do with the problems with the ruble exchange rate.

However, there is still a seasonal factor, and it should actually work in favor of the ruble. We are talking about the beginning of a harvesting company, under which large-scale purchases of fuel are going, which, taking into account the growth of exchange rates, may even become cheaper for someone, for example, for large agricultural holdings. If, of course, such buyers need to use foreign currency accounts.

Wrong demand


100 rubles per dollar, more than 100 rubles per euro - such courses no longer seem fantastic to anyone. But, it seems, no one is frightened anymore. Indeed, one should not be particularly afraid of them at all: the exchange rate itself determines little, and we remember this well in the post-default era.

With a normally functioning economy and finance, citizens should be generally indifferent to exchange rates. The same trip abroad is so rare, and often just accidental, that it is better for tourists to simply take the exchange rate for granted.

But this, we repeat, with a normally functioning economy and finance, which, alas, does not exist in Russia, as has not happened since the reforms. Even in the fat XNUMXs, no matter what the TV screens tell us.

Sadly, but the exchange rates in Russia actually dictate prices and quite directly stimulate their growth. Now they have not yet begun to grow, only because the domestic market simply stopped, and the currency turnover was somehow pushed into a corner.

Due to the fallen demand for everything and all the trade is forced not only not to raise prices, but also to try to sell the illiquid assets accumulated during the quarantine. However, this cannot go on for a long time, numerous purchases for foreign currency will have to be done in any case, and if the dollar and euro rates remain overvalued or even grow, the price jump simply cannot be avoided.

Wrong competitors


The ruble, no matter how wooden, oil or surrogate it is called, still has a serious support in the form of Russian oil and gas and the economy as a whole. Even if not the most powerful and not the most advanced. This is its fundamental difference from the dollar. As, however, and from the euro.


The main advantage of these competitors of the ruble is that there are simply many more of them in the world. This is reminiscent of card games or roulette, when a larger amount in the stash gives you a much better chance of winning.

That is why, unlike the Russian Central Bank, the American Fed and the European Central Bank could afford to put into circulation hundreds of anti-crisis billions and even just distribute them. In our country, if something was released into circulation, it went mainly to either the banks or the oligarchs.

That is why even now the ruble, or rather its exchange rate, was hit not by the seasonal factor, but by currency speculators who decided to simply dump the extra rubles, which ceased to bring super-profits due to the difference in rates.

Nevertheless, the possibilities for outside manipulation of the ruble are severely limited both by the very scale of the Russian market and by the need to buy our oil, gas and a number of other export goods in the future. In such a situation, betting only on the euro and the dollar, forgetting about the ruble, is a serious mistake.

This makes the prospect of the restoration of the positions of our national currency quite realistic. The domination of the dollar has long been called the most dire threat to world trade and finance. However, when US GDP fell nearly 40 percent in the quarter, there was no escape from dollars.

Why? Yes, simply because there are so many dollars circulating around the world that too many factors must work at once for a real fall of the “green”. Nevertheless, it is not as difficult to move it in the limited space of rubles as it seems to many. And Russian financiers, no matter how we criticized them, have done this more than once.

This was the case after the default, when the ruble exchange rate, which fell four to five times in the fall and winter of 1998-99, then rose for seven years. This was also the case after the 2008 and 2014 devaluations. Apparently, it will be so now. Although, according to a number of indications, the Russian financial authorities at this particular moment are simply trying to take advantage of the weakening of the national currency to warm up the economy.

The chances of the ruble for an increase, albeit a delayed one, are undoubtedly connected with the fact that both the dollar and the euro, due to the coronavirus crisis and the multi-billion dollar emission, have clearly entered the overvalued zone. Let it be very conditional for now - in relation to the basket of foreign currencies of the countries of the main trading partners. This index takes into account, among other things, the difference in inflation within the country with each partner.

However, the current account balances in both the United States and the Eurozone cannot be compared with either the Chinese or the Russian, although in the latter case the scale is, of course, not the same. It would seem that if the dollar and euro were cheaper, the USA or Europeans would export more goods.

But the economy fell both there and there, although the EU has now even achieved a foreign trade surplus. But this is unlikely to last long, and the euro has a little less problems than the dollar, which is just a sin not to take advantage of. China, for example, is already using it with might and main, but it is clear that the catastrophically poor US is definitely not profitable for it: such a market is collapsing.

Wrong rates


Now the situation is developing in such a way that the ruble and ruble instruments are no longer particularly attractive either as a strategic asset or as an object of speculation. The difference in rates, very different, and on credit, and on deposits, and on coupons of securities in comparison with foreign or corporate instruments, has become minimal.

At the same time, the risks are almost equal. Confidence in the ruble, which is formed on the basis of trust in the financial authorities, has clearly not increased recently. In addition, one should not ignore the fact that the recent decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank could not but affect the position of the ruble.


Despite the fact that it was minimal, by only 0,25 percentage points (up to 4,25 percent per annum), the psychological effect was very important. Many regarded the July decline as the last one, since the 4 percent mark is already going further, which was designated by the Russian financial authorities several years ago as the so-called inflation target.

The fact that inflation is now hovering at just above 3 percent on an annualized basis, even with the June jump up, makes little difference. Taken together, all this suggests that for many investors, especially outsiders, the time has come to simply fix ruble profits. That they did well at the turn of July and August.

At the same time, the Central Bank failed, and most likely did not want to offer the market any alternative that would help tie up the excess of rubles that had arisen literally out of the blue. But many counted on the issuance of some anti-crisis ruble bonds or other securities with a yield higher than inflation. It is desirable long-term - at least three to four years.

But it did not happen, although, perhaps, only for now. In the event of an aggravation of the situation with exchange rates, this may well be done by the Central Bank together with the Ministry of Finance. In the fight against inflation, our liberal financiers, in an anti-crisis impulse, again used a proven means - the maximum compression of the money supply.

In Russia, alas, low lending rates are not for everyone, but only for the elite. As well as billions of dollars in anti-crisis injections into the banking sector and oligarchic structures. After that, is it any wonder that the rich have once again become richer in the pandemic wave, and this is especially noticeable in Russia!

There is no need to talk about how much poorer the poor have become. However, I still had to say - both the official structures and on the pages of "Military Review" (Trust no one. The truth is in your wallet). But all the same, while harshly criticizing our “fighters against the crisis,” we must not forget that now it is not the summer of 1998 in the yard.

Now the financiers in power have no need to raise rates on government securities at all. Russia owes few people and, by and large, is not going to go into debt, even for the sake of fighting the second wave of COVID-19. As there is no need to collapse the ruble. As they say, let go of the course for a while, and that's enough.
Author:
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  1. Sahalinets
    Sahalinets 4 August 2020 15: 15 New
    41
    The authors somehow forgot one important detail - the government benefits from the fall of the ruble! The more expensive the dollar, the easier it is for them to fulfill their budgetary obligations. Well, the fact that the ruble is losing purchasing power and the population is becoming impoverished - they do not care. They will be interrupted somehow, our people are seasoned, and are accustomed to poverty, why should we feel sorry for them? Don't believe me? Well listen to Himself!
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 4 August 2020 15: 33 New
      23
      Quote: Sahalinets
      The authors somehow forgot one important detail - the government benefits from the fall of the ruble! The more expensive the dollar, the easier it is for them to fulfill their budgetary obligations.

      It is precisely noted that a weak ruble is very beneficial for the authorities, with its help you can get into the pocket of the population without fear of being caught by the hand .. Not many people realize that prices within the country for everything depend strongly on the dollar exchange rate. Starting from food (to a lesser extent) to clothes, office equipment .. well, in general, everything that we import .. Well, if you look carefully at what we have in the house and what we wear, it becomes clear that we practically import all.
      1. Sahalinets
        Sahalinets 4 August 2020 15: 35 New
        12
        Yes, almost everything is tied to the dollar! If the products are not imported, they contain imported components, are manufactured using imported equipment, are made from imported semi-finished products or raw materials ... even our poultry farms buy eggs and feed additives in the West! I met data that the cost of even Russian agricultural products is about 50-60 percent of the import component.
        1. prapor55
          prapor55 4 August 2020 16: 15 New
          -8
          This article is only a superficial retelling of Khazin and Belyanin in this historical period, everything depends on the actions of the first person and only on him. He has a maximum time left until October 1, and then ........
          1. Sahalinets
            Sahalinets 4 August 2020 16: 19 New
            +7
            Khazin back in 99 predicted an imminent collapse of the dollar. Well, we are waiting for the fulfillment of the great prophecy ... laughing
            1. prapor55
              prapor55 4 August 2020 18: 40 New
              -2
              Patience and a little effort. Do you know this saying? You can continue to minus, there is little time left. hi
        2. Denis Koshchavtsev
          Denis Koshchavtsev 6 August 2020 09: 13 New
          +3
          even our poultry farms buy eggs and feed additives in the West!

          why write something that you yourself are not aware of. negative
          They are not imported and do not buy.
          I met data that the cost of even Russian agricultural products is about 50-60 percent of the import component.

          There is no need to retell gossip a lot.
          And there are enough of them, like nightingales sing during the mating season.
          Maybe for money, or maybe from the inner impotence of the soul.
          Should they sing along?
          1. Sahalinets
            Sahalinets 6 August 2020 09: 26 New
            -3
            Gossip? Well, that's what the profile sites write.
            Today in Russia the share of using imported breeding material of parental meat crosses of broiler chickens is at the level of 98%
            http://vestnikapk.ru/articles/aktualno/otkryt-granitsy-dlya-ptitsy/
            the share of imported ingredients in broiler meat production reaches approximately 70%. Russian manufacturers mainly work on foreign equipment, use foreign selection products, hatching eggs, veterinary drugs and vitamins. Even in the feed there is an imported component - soybean meal, since not enough soy is produced in Russia.

            https://www.agroinvestor.ru/markets/article/25805-na-tret-rossiyskiy-broyler/
            Of course, I understand that the faithful Putinist has no need to think, Channel One thinks for you, but why are you trying to get to people?
            1. Denis Koshchavtsev
              Denis Koshchavtsev 6 August 2020 10: 46 New
              +3
              If you see Putinists everywhere ... bully
              You would not believe the articles, but poke others with them, but you yourself would have learned what in fact.
              I work at such a poultry farm, owned by the Dutch, now the Thais have a controlling stake. But the feed and eggs are local, and more than 40% of the production is exported. The rest is the domestic market.

              ZY, let the "all-knowing" in power, each cook will start waving a Mauser fool
              1. private person
                private person 6 August 2020 15: 15 New
                -3
                I work in such a poultry farm

                The feed may have its own additives like "rostishki", and whose equipment for the production of these feeds? He himself wrote the Dutch, then the Thais, but where are the Russians? And our dear, our own "patriots" and have lost.
                1. Denis Koshchavtsev
                  Denis Koshchavtsev 6 August 2020 17: 20 New
                  +2
                  Russians are also present, the factory has the status of a joint stock company.
                  What dofiga themselves have lost everything - we can do it like no other (well, except for Africans) :(
      2. The leader of the Redskins
        The leader of the Redskins 4 August 2020 16: 02 New
        24
        As I tried to prove four years ago to cheers for patriots that sanctions are not funny. That a high dollar is not funnier. But they handed me demotivators, cartoons and sarcastically declared that the price of potatoes in the store around the corner did not rise. I laid out the components for them: herbicides, equipment and a lot of other foreign countries, but ...
        Minus and laughing.
        Now the articles have gone and people are nodding their manes together - yes, that's how it is.
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 4 August 2020 16: 06 New
          14
          Quote: Leader of the Redskins
          Now the articles have gone and people are nodding their manes together - yes, that's how it is.

          There will still be roofing felts .. people are slowly beginning to open their eyes .. the more difficult life is, the more questions will appear .. Soon, only trolls and those who are well-organized next to the authorities will be drowning the zaputin .. But the essence of course is not in personalities .. Putin or Shubin .. ideology does not matter. Capitalism is incompatible with Russia, there is no justice in it. And justice is the most important factor for the people who inhabit Russia.
          1. Krasnodar
            Krasnodar 4 August 2020 18: 03 New
            -2
            Quote: Svarog
            Capitalism is incompatible with Russia, there is no justice in it. And justice is the most important factor for the people who inhabit Russia.

            Greetings! hi How incompatible? Russians are mostly descendants of peasants, and the land needs an owner. And the enterprise needs an owner. Not an abstract "state". Another thing is that the feeding oil industry, gas production and the military-industrial complex should be in the state authorities, providing social services and research institutes. And the government with all power structures must ensure the safety of business. Socialism with a frenzied public sector is really contraindicated for the population of the Russian Federation - everything around is Soviet and everything around me and everything that is at work I bring home laughing
            1. kin
              kin 4 August 2020 19: 45 New
              12
              And they took a lot home? What I was carrying from work: a dozen sleepers, a coal car, metal for the gate. But on the profit from the energy resources of my city, the city itself was built, around the villages, state farms, almost free electricity for the population of the country and many, many other useful things. What I took was dust compared to the fact that the new owners, frankly speaking, steal, every day in trains and there are no longer around the state farms and all those benefits that, as you put it, an abstract state. Only now it is not abstract, but amorphous.
              1. Krasnodar
                Krasnodar 4 August 2020 20: 01 New
                0
                At first glance, this is how it is. I agree. But.
                1) You carried out, another hundred (a big plant, no?) Workers carried out - and by the mid-80s, with the fall in oil prices, the state with a very developed industry began to feel economically uncomfortable. For production has become ineffective for a long time.
                2) Not far from the enterprise, which has been working for a long time and efficiently, housing is being built in modern Russia - there is demand.
                3) State farms - unlike the USSR, the Russian Federation not only provides itself with agricultural production, but also exports abroad. Where the dictates of agriculture are profitable, land is in short supply.
                4) And what do the new owners steal - take money abroad, so as not to be left with a bare ass after squeezing out the elder? He wrote about this - the state must ensure its security.
                5) Not entirely amorphous - in China, a third of pensioners do not receive pensions at all, and 40% - in the region of 3 thousand rubles. Compared to Western countries, I agree. Socialist of the Third World, it is necessary to change the system, but not to the Soviet one, but to Bismarck's "state of socialism."
            2. aybolyt678
              aybolyt678 4 August 2020 21: 21 New
              +4
              Quote: Krasnodar
              How incompatible? Russians are mostly descendants of peasants, and the land needs an owner. And the enterprise needs an owner. Not an abstract "state".

              views on socialism have changed somewhat recently. Socialism does not imply joint ownership, but social significance and justice. Progressive tax in some European countries is also called socialism! it consists of elements: free education, medicine, housing. Free unemployment benefits are also part of socialism, if you will. But Brezhnev's self-sufficiency and cost accounting were elements of capitalism.
              1. Krasnodar
                Krasnodar 5 August 2020 09: 38 New
                -1
                I wrote above - Bismarov's state socialism.
            3. Roman123567
              Roman123567 5 August 2020 12: 35 New
              -1
              Socialism with a frenzied public sector is really contraindicated for the population of the Russian Federation - everything around is Soviet and everything around is mine and everything at work I bring home

              Of course, it's better when something turns out not to be at home for all the people .. but at some one Sechin .. This is what our population likes ..
              1. Krasnodar
                Krasnodar 5 August 2020 13: 15 New
                0
                Do you think Sechin is the richest Russian? laughing Theft is a dead-end way, to envy someone that he has the ability to steal sucks.
                To create something like the Germans or to create something from scratch through knowledge and hard work like the Israelis is really the right way of development.
          2. evgeniy.plotnikov.2019mail.ru
            evgeniy.plotnikov.2019mail.ru 5 August 2020 04: 49 New
            +3
            Not only Russia, dear Svarog, loves justice. The whole world of PEOPLE loves her.
            You can remember how the whole world applauded the Great October Socialist Revolution. As it was repeated, it was in Hungary and Germany. How France took home its "invaders" so that they would not get the "red infection", as she borrowed from the USSR a 7-hour working day ... How people from all over the Red Army served in the Red Army the world - Czechs, Poles, Hungarians, Koreans, Chinese, Latvians ...
            None of the adequate PEOPLE likes it when they ride on his neck. Strives to throw off the lover of the cuddle and mentally “thank”.
            But not all Homo sapiens are people. This is the problem of humanity! There are people-like ,, ordinary nonhumans ,, (convenient, sensible in meaning - ,, ufo ,,). The point is not that they had a difficult childhood, lack of parental attention, or they were brought up in the midst of vice, etc. No! They are ALL different. We love God, they are Satan, we love our own kind, they consider people to be work animals, raw materials, a source of protein, spare parts, and pleasures for UFOs. This is a separate class that the classics of Marxism-Leninism "did not notice". They did not notice because they were profane in the spiritual realm. Therefore, they have reduced everything to "property" issues. We made a mistake.
            Not all rich people are UFOs, and not all proletarians are human. Not rich people killed the royal family and their servants in 1918, dismembered corpses, dissolved in acid. Not the rich ,, piloted ,, and served the Nazi machines, gas chambers, in 1941-45.
            But among the rich, there are many UFOs, suspiciously. For themselves, they have created ,, capitalism ,,. For centuries, people have been trying to “ennoble” this OPS. Does not work! Do not marry ,, white rose with black toad ,,. The ideal of “capitalism” from the “UFO” is a concentration camp. What did the hardworking “miles” built by the Germans-Nazis in the 40s of the last century? What are English-speaking globalists building now on a global scale? (And their Russian speaking ,, singing along, in the country of Russia?)
            How to stop the international, UFO, incl. in Russia? Here's the challenge!
            And already the power of people WITHOUT LABOR will deal with the ruble exchange rate. Will restore reasonable, sound and fair. Passed
        2. New
          New Year day 4 August 2020 16: 50 New
          13
          Quote: Leader of the Redskins
          Minus and laughing.

          and now they are laughing, they have not yet reached
        3. Igoresha
          Igoresha 4 August 2020 20: 33 New
          +7
          Minus and laughing.
          Putin's electorate he is
          1. Grading
            Grading 5 August 2020 05: 37 New
            +2
            86% of the electorate greeted the start of the self-disposal program with thunderous applause good
      3. alone
        alone 4 August 2020 17: 27 New
        -1
        Quote: Svarog
        Well, if you look closely at what we have in the house and what we wear, it becomes clear that we import almost everything.
        That's right, hence the instability of the ruble. And you don't have to be a Doctor of Economics for that. Even imported slippers
      4. VicktorVR
        VicktorVR 4 August 2020 17: 45 New
        +1
        All. Everyone knows that domestic prices depend on the course. Therefore, they run to buy up currency at every "sneeze".
        One joy among the population is that interest and loan payments do not depend on the course :)
        1. Nastia makarova
          Nastia makarova 5 August 2020 10: 02 New
          +4
          currency has not been bought for a long time)))) there is nothing to buy it for)))
    2. 7,62h54
      7,62h54 4 August 2020 16: 33 New
      -1
      This is my favorite short.
    3. Pirate
      Pirate 5 August 2020 07: 12 New
      +6
      Apple capitalization is $ 1529 billion.

      This is, so you understand, 22 Gazprom, 23 Sberbank, 25 Rosneft, 124 Yandex, 160 MTS, 215 VTB, 426 United Aircraft Corporation or 1136 Aeroflot - to choose from.
      Russia's GDP is $ 1600-1700 billion.
      With this money, it would be possible to buy all the residential real estate in Moscow (over 200 million m2) three times. And for delivery - all of Moldova.

      The total capitalization of the entire Russian stock market is approximately $ 647 billion. That is, the entire "big" Russian economy costs the same as one of the departments of one of the large international corporations.

      Now salaries

      This is all you need to know about the Russian economy
      1. Uncle Vanya Susanin
        Uncle Vanya Susanin 5 August 2020 07: 54 New
        -7
        Capitalization is a spherical horse in a vacuum, that's all you need to know about your comment !!! hi
      2. Nastia makarova
        Nastia makarova 5 August 2020 10: 03 New
        -1
        capitalization is a bubble
      3. Maestro
        Maestro 5 August 2020 18: 51 New
        0
        ... stale data. Over the past month, Apple shares rose from 380 to 440 dollars per share. ... which also proves their "exaggeration" and the ephemerality of the entire American economy - they simply have nowhere to put their bucks, so they invest in stocks
      4. nickname7
        nickname7 6 August 2020 14: 50 New
        0
        It is better to consider not capitalization, but profit and paid taxes, but by these indicators, Western firms are ahead of the Rosfirms. The answer is simple, the final product is a thousand times more expensive than raw materials.
    4. Nastia makarova
      Nastia makarova 5 August 2020 10: 12 New
      +1
      all right !!! cheap ruble is very beneficial to the government
    5. BastaKarapuzik And
      BastaKarapuzik And 5 August 2020 20: 58 New
      -1
      Alas, in the short term, the fall in the ruble is beneficial for the budget. This is abused all over the world, even in the USA, just maybe there for other reasons. Trump at one point even made claims to China that he was playing the course devaluing his currency, thereby increasing the competitiveness of his goods.
      But what can I say, even the USSR was doing such a trick, it seems, during the monetary reform. At the snap of your fingers, once, and the state's revenues have grown, "beauty." A worker engaged in, say, oil production, had to be paid more before the reform (if we convert his salary into dollars). And the fact that this could have negative consequences, did not think. And the consequences are not very good ..
      This I refer to the Chinese saying about Mao, who was 70% good and 30% bad ..
      We have a policy of cheap labor, which is supposedly useful for some kind of imaginary economy, but not useful for those whose hands this very economy is built.
      In the long run, this is also bad for the Russian economy, monstrously bad.
      It's even worse than a crime, it's a mistake.
  2. paul3390
    paul3390 4 August 2020 15: 25 New
    +8
    In general, it is utter folly to set the course of your money on the basis of pennies on a national scale, which are pushing each other by financial swindlers-hucksters .. But alas, under the current system, too many characters feed on this folly ..
  3. avib
    avib 4 August 2020 15: 28 New
    22
    the ruble is heavily supported by Russian oil and gas and the economy as a whole. This is its fundamental difference from the dollar. As, however, and from the euro.


    I didn't read further. Still, a little respect for the readers.
    1. Sahalinets
      Sahalinets 4 August 2020 15: 32 New
      12
      Well, there is no economy in the States! Not Apple, not Boeing, not Melkomyagkikh ... not even a herd of aircraft carriers. laughing
      1. AML
        AML 4 August 2020 17: 03 New
        -4
        I remember in 1 day, due to an incomprehensible sneeze, they sank by half the cost of an epl with Facebook. A total of 1.3 billion. Is this a strong economy?
        1. avib
          avib 4 August 2020 17: 22 New
          +7
          I remember in 1 day, due to an incomprehensible sneeze, they sank by half the cost of an epl with Facebook. A total of 1.3 billion. Is this a strong economy?

          Half ?!
          Today, Facebook is worth $ 718,36 billion en epla - $ 1.87 trillion. What is 1,3 billion for these companies?
          These companies, by the way, are private and owned by shareholders. Check out the US budget. Compare with the Russian .... Better compare the budget of the state of California with the Russian.
          In general, the approach is fundamentally wrong. Instead of convincingly proving that the Russian economy is in excellent condition, for some reason you are trying to somehow "lower" the US economy.
        2. Sahalinets
          Sahalinets 4 August 2020 17: 22 New
          0
          You can distinguish between stock fluctuations and real income! The first is interesting only to speculators. And in fact, Apple has sales of 260 billion last year, net profit - 55 billion. Gazprom has 123 and 20, respectively.
      2. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 4 August 2020 21: 24 New
        +5
        Quote: Sahalinets
        Well, there is no economy in the States! Not Apple, not Boeing, not Melkomyagkikh ... not even a herd of aircraft carriers.

        even if everything collapses in the States .. The dollar will not die immediately, it relies on the world economy
      3. Uncle Vanya Susanin
        Uncle Vanya Susanin 5 August 2020 07: 59 New
        -7
        The Russian economy relies on the fuel and energy complex, the US economy on the printing press and military bases, now they are going to "print" about $ 1 trillion more, and they will be happy laughing
    2. andrew42
      andrew42 4 August 2020 17: 08 New
      +5
      Yes, such a gem about "serious support" is either a diagnosis or a professional deformation of the noodle ...
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 4 August 2020 15: 34 New
    17
    I remember how much joy it was when it was announced that payments for goods would be made in rubles and how happy foreign countries would buy rubles ... Judging by the exchange rate, there is a queue behind him now ...
    1. paul3390
      paul3390 4 August 2020 15: 43 New
      +6
      Why is this necessary? Your money must be allowed to circulate exclusively within the country. Otherwise the hucksters-speculators will eat all the raspberries. In general, the monetary system of the flourishing of the USSR was almost ideal. There were actually several monetary systems for different purposes, practically not overlapping with each other. But then Judas the Marked One came ...
      1. parusnik
        parusnik 4 August 2020 16: 11 New
        +6
        Otherwise the hucksters-speculators will eat all the raspberries.
        ..... So in fact it happened ... "And in parrots I'm longer" (c) wink
      2. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 4 August 2020 21: 26 New
        +5
        Quote: paul3390
        Your money must be allowed to circulate exclusively within the country.

        what prevents from rigidly pegging the ruble to a kilowatt hour? so it will have its own currency, not dependent on anyone
        1. paul3390
          paul3390 4 August 2020 21: 32 New
          +2
          Yes, even to plutonium warheads - this is already a tactical question ..
        2. olimpiada15
          olimpiada15 4 August 2020 22: 29 New
          +5
          Quote: aybolyt678
          Quote: paul3390
          Your money must be allowed to circulate exclusively within the country.

          what prevents from rigidly pegging the ruble to a kilowatt hour? so it will have its own currency, not dependent on anyone

          You can't. The speculators will suffer. Yes, that there are speculators, financiers (Oh horror!) Will be deprived of the opportunity to inflate financial bubbles.
        3. Sahalinets
          Sahalinets 4 August 2020 23: 11 New
          -1
          You somehow forget that money is also a commodity. Simply possessing the ability to exchange for any other goods. This means that it depends on supply and demand. Want to make a hard ruble exchange rate? Well, this has already been tried in many places, the result is always the same - the emergence of a black market. He was in the USSR, by the way ...
          1. aybolyt678
            aybolyt678 5 August 2020 08: 18 New
            +2
            Quote: Sahalinets
            You somehow forget that money is also a commodity.

            Money is a quantitative expression of value, which is labor embodied in a commodity ...
            a commodity is a product of labor intended for exchange. All problems lie in the wrong approach to money. The ruble should be tightly tied to the mass of commodities produced in the country. Or electricity, which is the quintessence of modern technology and labor, and everything will fall into place. All currencies of the world will dance in relation to a kilowatt hour, on stock exchanges, white and black markets, but the ruble will always be the ruble, always the kilowatt! always a loaf of bread.
            1. Sahalinets
              Sahalinets 5 August 2020 10: 50 New
              -3
              Not. This is exactly a universal product and nothing more. Don't make a cult out of him! laughing
              As for the value, that is, the price, it arises only in the process of sale, i.e. commodity exchange. There are a lot of goods on which labor is spent, sometimes very large, but you will not even take them for nothing. Well, what is their cost? Zero.
              1. aybolyt678
                aybolyt678 5 August 2020 11: 38 New
                +2
                Unfortunately, you are using the common sense of the terms Price and Cost. The cost is labor embodied in the commodity, which can be counted in dollars, tugiiiks, kilocalories, but Marx considered the work time of a specialist, and Price is an expression of value in money, depending on supply and demand. Therefore, your question is incorrect - the price can be large or zero, and the Cost is always constant.
                1. Sahalinets
                  Sahalinets 5 August 2020 11: 46 New
                  -4
                  Marx was refuted a hundred years ago by the economists of the Austrian school. Well, you are confusing production costs and cost. The first can be any, but completely unrelated to the second.
                  You can spend a million man-hours building a tube computer, but the cost is zero.
                  1. aybolyt678
                    aybolyt678 5 August 2020 14: 11 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Sahalinets
                    You can spend a million man-hours building a tube computer, but the cost is zero.

                    its market PRICE will be equal to zero, and its value will be exactly one million man-hours. It is for amateurs or housewives that these concepts are identical smile
                    1. Sahalinets
                      Sahalinets 5 August 2020 16: 40 New
                      -3
                      Pointless labor costs nothing! You should have read at least something other than the course of Marxism-Leninism ...
                      1. aybolyt678
                        aybolyt678 6 August 2020 08: 41 New
                        0
                        Quote: Sahalinets
                        You should have read at least something other than the course of Marxism-Leninism ...

                        read, read and will read .. and if your literacy would allow, I would even point out the shortcomings of Marx's theory in modern conditions smile
                        By the way, you are strongly confusing the theory of value, which no one will ever refute, which is like a law of nature, and the class theory, which has shown its inconsistency
                  2. aybolyt678
                    aybolyt678 5 August 2020 14: 15 New
                    +2
                    Quote: Sahalinets
                    Marx was refuted a hundred years ago by the economists of the Austrian school.

                    a hundred years ago, according to Marx's theory, the young Soviet Republic was created quite successfully. smile despite Austrian economists
  5. mag nit
    mag nit 4 August 2020 16: 12 New
    +6
    The ruble lies and does not fall. Stability.
  6. A.TOR
    A.TOR 4 August 2020 16: 16 New
    +9
    You have to live in some other reality to write such nonsense, sorry
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 4 August 2020 21: 28 New
      +8
      Quote: A.TOR
      You have to live in some other reality to write such nonsense, sorry

      one of the authors is Doctor of Economics! is it how much science needs to degrade to add to this?
  7. Undecim
    Undecim 4 August 2020 16: 23 New
    16
    The ruble, no matter how wooden, oil or surrogate it is called, still has a serious support in the form of Russian oil and gas and the economy as a whole. Even if not the most powerful and not the most advanced. This is its fundamental difference from the dollar. As, however, and from the euro.
    Judging by the signature under the article, is one of the authors of this phrase, masterpiece in its stupidity, a Doctor of Economics? Interestingly, where and by whom is he "doctoring?
    1. smaug78
      smaug78 4 August 2020 16: 56 New
      +3
      He's just a shekel lover.
      1. Krasnodar
        Krasnodar 4 August 2020 18: 22 New
        +1
        And rightly so - the last 15 years, the third most reliable world currency
  8. veritas
    veritas 4 August 2020 16: 30 New
    +8
    The ruble is against everyone. Why it falls and why it should strengthen

    The ruble cannot strengthen, this will become possible when consumer goods begin to be produced in our country. Otherwise, without the production of your own, there is no strong ruble. And so, everything depends on the completeness of the budget and oil prices.
    1. New
      New Year day 4 August 2020 16: 53 New
      +6
      Quote: veritas
      when mass-market goods begin to be produced here.

      so there are no goods and no consumer demand! There is no one to buy and it is expensive
  9. andrew42
    andrew42 4 August 2020 16: 33 New
    10
    It is not so much a matter of the "fall" in the exchange rate of the ruble in the foreign exchange market as of a decrease in its purchasing power in the domestic market. We are talking about REAL inflation, and not about any targeted and statistically estimated inflation. With the help of foreign exchange interventions, the Central Bank can give "our" state a good face in a bad game by curbing the fall in the exchange rate of the ruble, but consumer prices in stores are growing as if "by themselves" - this is an indicator of real inflation. Take, for example, the period preceding the "Crimean Spring -2014". Before "Crimea" the exchange rate of the ruble in relation to foreign ones stood rooted to the spot, and retail prices from 2011 to 2014 offhand increased by 35-40%, this was evident from banal shop receipts. For food products and - obviously, for consumer manufactured goods - to a lesser extent (market saturation, and not essential). Then "sanctions" burst out, the authorities were delighted, and ... let the ruble off the leash - down to the real inflationary level. They blamed everything on the bourgeoisie, on oil and other world conjuncture. The gentlemen made themselves comfortable. So the ruble exchange rate in the fall is always really catching up with the value of the ruble on the domestic market of the Russian Federation, with a delay due to intra-political staged performances, but catching up. And a picture of a certain periodic discreteness of the fall is falsely created, allegedly depending on the change in macroeconomic external factors. In short, our sharpshooters celebrate gloriously! How to feed the banks-parasites, which do not finance production at all, but only speculate - during the "rat" period (They will perish! And the whole Race will perish) - they are masters of that. How to make ends meet with a budget. - exclusively through the depreciation of the money supply in the hands of the population. Another question is, why does real inflation tirelessly sharpen the Russian economy? - Yes, because it is necessary to develop high-tech production, to produce products with high added value, and to enter foreign markets with it. This is where the cost of currency in the foreign market is buried (unless, of course, you have your own FRS machine). This is the macro level. At the middle and micro-levels, this is a developed small and medium business, which produces, and not manicure-pedicure. However, with our retail chains and agricultural holdings, this also does not shine for us. That's why I ruble THIS. Fading to a new denomination.
  10. akunin
    akunin 4 August 2020 17: 00 New
    +3
    The fact that inflation is now hovering at just over 3 percent on an annualized basis, even with the June jump up, makes little difference.


    just as I don’t come to the store, prices are getting higher for literally everything (even for seasonal goods). If the dollar grows, then all electronics, Chinese consumer goods grow (because there is not enough of our own, and half of "ours" are from China), cars .. . and most importantly, whose pricing the mind cannot understand - gsm.
  11. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 4 August 2020 17: 04 New
    +2
    Well, how not to buy currency? The state, how can it wean the Russians (accustomed to the ruble, as opposed to the citizens of the cis) from savings in rubles ...
    1. Someone already has no savings.
    2. Those who have them cannot keep their savings in rubles .... or save up in rubles.
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 4 August 2020 18: 06 New
      +3
      Quote: Zaurbek
      Well, how not to buy currency?

      Really. This is the second option for saving money after buying real estate.
      The saddest thing about our version is that all the currency is spent on cheap Chinese goods of dubious value and quality.
      In Russia, there is no prestige of the state currency because there is no state bank. Actually, if you look at the essence, what did Muammar Gaddafi want to do that he was quickly reasoned out by his former partners? Lead the golden dinar?
      All this is strange. The world is trying to get rid of the influence of the dollar, making efforts, and Russia is buying up American debts, while forgiving its debtors staggering amounts.
      Somehow, no one forgave Russia Gazprom's debts (national treasure) ... request
      1. andrew42
        andrew42 4 August 2020 18: 26 New
        +4
        This is because income (for the Incas) is for the majority shareholders of Gazprom (please do not nod at the screen of "state property", this is just a mechanism for the subsequent cutting of dividends into private pockets.) But the losses and costs of the "national property" are for the account of the population, from which much more is collected than is rolled back in the form of bullying benefits and fake social programs.
      2. Zaurbek
        Zaurbek 4 August 2020 21: 07 New
        +3
        The state has also weaned off the purchase of real estate .... taxes and housing maintenance are not cheap.
        1. Nastia makarova
          Nastia makarova 5 August 2020 10: 09 New
          0
          not yet, while it is still profitable to rent in those regions where there is a demand for rental housing
    2. Nastia makarova
      Nastia makarova 5 August 2020 10: 07 New
      +1
      they buy very little currency now, the people do not have free money to make more stash
  12. Andrei from Chelyabinsk
    Andrei from Chelyabinsk 4 August 2020 17: 07 New
    11
    I read the article, and for some reason immediately came to mind a snide phrase, which was at one time in great circulation: "Doctor of Economics is not a title, but a diagnosis ..."
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 4 August 2020 18: 10 New
      +5
      In our time it has become equal to the "Doctor of Puppet Science", the name of Karabas :) What kind of speaking doctor is needed will be exhibited, "with a diploma!" What they charge the doctor, he will "drive away", and most importantly, he will pick up a bunch of justifications. There would be an order, but there will be noodles.
  13. AML
    AML 4 August 2020 17: 07 New
    -6
    Quote: andrew42
    The Central Bank with the help of foreign exchange interventions can give "our" state a good face in case of a bad game


    They let the ruble float freely and did the right thing. How else to deal with currency speculators.
    Let me remind you that the United States is constantly making China a claim that it deliberately underestimates the yuan. Why would the United States worry about China. On the contrary, a stable currency and everything would be happy.
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 4 August 2020 18: 01 New
      +5
      China is fighting a completely opposite phenomenon - the unwanted revaluation of the yuan, in order to maintain its dominant status in the international trade balance. Roughly speaking, China is worried that a decrease in the volume of Chinese exports (the loss of some of the funds flowing in from abroad) will bring more losses than the positive effect of the revaluation of the yuan on the domestic market of China. Why? - Yes, because the final profitability from the "world Chinese factory of goods" strategically gives the advantage to the Chinese economy by sucking funds from the economies of other countries. By the way, where, by the way, the Chinese then invest the "pumped-over" funds - in 3 countries, and even in the USA, which makes the same Trump immensely angry. In fact, China is performing the task of keeping the national currency exchange rate at the level that is most beneficial for the "Chinese factory" working for export. Russia is completely at the other end of the "line" - it cannot restrain inflation, because the production of technological goods does not develop, it sits tightly on the import of consumer goods and means of production (if the GTU for frigates "cut through" 3 years ago, then the finish line), and trades exclusively in raw materials, withdrawing money over the hill. Thus. the Chinese economy is bursting with fat, and this is their problem, and the Russian economy is a skinny "victim of Buchewald", where 17 tyrs per capita is the "middle class" according to Guarantor. In 2 years the "middle class" will be 15 tyrs, or 17 tyrs will actually cost as 14. And, by the way, the yuan is not a classic hard currency. The Bank of China sets (!) The rate as China needs, and not the stock exchange, although it skillfully masks "convertibility". This is the question about free swimming. But everyone keeps quiet, because everyone is tightly seated on the "Chinese commodity needle", and China, which is holding the "needle," also cannot abandon it. The nurse and the patient are stuck to each other; if they are separated, they will lose both.
  14. Maks1995
    Maks1995 4 August 2020 17: 18 New
    +2
    Yes. And not to shoot or imprison, unfortunately, neither those who equated the "overvalued" dollar with 30 rubles, nor who scribbled articles and videos about the imminent collapse of the dollar ...
    For lies and anti-national activities
  15. AML
    AML 4 August 2020 17: 38 New
    -4
    Quote: avib
    I remember in 1 day, due to an incomprehensible sneeze, they sank by half the cost of an epl with Facebook. A total of 1.3 billion. Is this a strong economy?

    Half ?!
    .

    In general, the approach is fundamentally wrong. Instead of convincingly proving that the Russian economy is in excellent condition, for some reason you are trying to somehow "lower" the US economy.


    Yes, yes, I forgot about the numbers. It happens. Okay, I'll tell you in%. Facebook shares fell 24%, Apple shares fell 38%.
    Count as you like.

    Prove? What for. You saw that the rate was falling, and began to resent that everything was bad. What is wrong? Find out what course exporters need, what importers need and take it easy. + Are the euro and the dollar not the same now? Maybe courses are growing on the sly, but we don't know? You haven't missed anything since the beginning of the year?
  16. AML
    AML 4 August 2020 17: 50 New
    -3
    Quote: Max1995
    Yes. And not to shoot or imprison, unfortunately, neither those who equated the "overvalued" dollar with 30 rubles, nor who scribbled articles and videos about the imminent collapse of the dollar ...
    For lies and anti-national activities


    It seems like a lot of banks were closed.
    Well, some things cannot be evaluated. I paint a picture on the "I see it" principle. I meet my billionaire friend who really liked my handshake and is ready to pay 100500 thousand for it. Shook hands. As a result, I am a cat-millionaire from the% that fell to me, and the zakomny billionaire donates a picture to the museum of handcraftsmen and is exempt from paying taxes for 100500 thousand + cash 100500 thousand minus my%. Profit. This is a worldwide scheme. Money matters only for those who do not have it. Those who have them in stock, they are in stock and will remain. Well, we don't take idiots into account.
  17. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 4 August 2020 17: 56 New
    +1
    The ruble is against everyone. Why it falls and why it should strengthen

    What is so diligently dropped cannot be strengthened. Listen to the deputy's speech:

    And he says the right things, and gives real examples.
  18. BAI
    BAI 4 August 2020 19: 34 New
    +7
    Why it falls and why it should strengthen

    It falls because every penny of the depreciation of the ruble brings billions in ruble profits to the budget. This is beneficial to the government - we live in Russia, all budget payments are in rubles. By the way, Medvedev once said that inflation is not just beneficial, it is necessary for the economy. Therefore, the ruble will never strengthen. It is strange that the doctor of economic sciences. I kept silent about this.
  19. Alecsandr
    Alecsandr 4 August 2020 22: 24 New
    -2
    A weak ruble is all you need to know about the Russian economy. When they wanted the economy to grow stronger and develop, they introduced into circulation a gold coin, which was desired and in demand. Even by the capitalist bourgeoisie.
  20. Andrey.AN
    Andrey.AN 4 August 2020 22: 43 New
    -7
    The author completely forgets about the main thing with regard to the ruble - the budget of the Russian Federation is accepted in rubles, and here at least the dollar will be on the ears, if the budget is in rubles, then the prices of our market are dictated by the ruble, the fact is that in our import market - 1%, we don't give a shit about this import, even if the oil is ten dollars a barrel.
    1. Sahalinets
      Sahalinets 4 August 2020 23: 14 New
      -1
      There is only one fact - you have absolutely no mind!
      1. Andrey.AN
        Andrey.AN 4 August 2020 23: 23 New
        -4
        Justify at least your statement, so as not to be unfounded, prove your thought, without this, if you make designations purely according to some idiot's invented concepts, then you have no mind, then you are just a stupid member of the pyramid under another Mavrodi, with a horseradish in the priest you confuse others with a rooster, in order to justify yourself, instead of asking the kid from the goats that you were beguiled.
        1. Sahalinets
          Sahalinets 5 August 2020 00: 04 New
          +2
          Are you quite alternatively gifted? What are you wearing, who made household appliances in your house, why are you writing, a computer, a smartphone - are they also made in Russia?
          Even if such elementary things do not reach you, you are hopeless.
          1. Andrey.AN
            Andrey.AN 5 August 2020 00: 17 New
            -4
            Just think about it yourself, this consumer goods of yours which you care about, no one can block Russia, it is done from all sides. All strategically important, the Russian Federation produces itself for rubles. All imports of the Russian Federation are several times less than exports, even if the dollar is a thousand rubles, a loaf of bread with a liter of milk and half a liter of wine will remain within the stolnik, if the ruble amount in the Budget does not change, then prices will not change, even if they all cost cancer.
            1. Sahalinets
              Sahalinets 5 August 2020 01: 03 New
              +1
              Superb fellow
              1. Andrey.AN
                Andrey.AN 5 August 2020 01: 06 New
                -4
                Well, think for yourself, how many rubles will the Duma allocate, the domestic market will fight for so much, dollars here at the checkout do not stick.
          2. Andrey.AN
            Andrey.AN 5 August 2020 00: 34 New
            -6
            I’ll say more, the more expensive kerosene is for us, the better, well, the more expensive transport and transportation will be, but with the same budget everything else will be cheaper, competitors will dry up altogether.
            1. andrew42
              andrew42 5 August 2020 15: 30 New
              +2
              Yeah, we forgot about the saying "While the fat dries, the thin one dies." However, the ruling elite is interested in decreasing the population - it doesn't take much to service oil and gas, plus a few more servants with a 4-grade education "strictly according to Gref." Gaidar's political and economic program has been alive and well under the shadow of the sun for 25 years! Quarter of century!.
        2. andrew42
          andrew42 5 August 2020 15: 26 New
          +3
          Andrey AN Are you sure about Russia writing? After your "we have -1% imports" I conclude that you live in a parallel world, where the development of Russia has taken an alternative path.
      2. Andrey.AN
        Andrey.AN 4 August 2020 23: 31 New
        -6
        Tell me, do you have a common fund that you don't see, like someone unfamiliar lays down and takes from it? If there is such a fund, then you are a complete sucker in the Pyramid.
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. Andrey.AN
        Andrey.AN 5 August 2020 00: 00 New
        -9
        You are like a church priest, who judges the mind by his own understanding, everyone has their own thoughts, what is right and what is not, dictates the market, he is in authority, and not some clowns.
  21. Cottodraton
    Cottodraton 5 August 2020 05: 11 New
    0
    People are whining about the collapse of the economy and the growth of the dollar ... But what exactly prevented the "Russian business" from starting to produce the same consumer goods? And, a small exhaust!) We are used to making a triple exhaust in the purchase and sale. The industry does not bring more than 10 percent ... Well, well) ... of course prices will rise ... however, to all vangovatov-Europophiles, I want to say that making friends with the West at any cost is a way into the abyss ... They in any case, they will take their own sooner or later. Therefore, there should be a path of its own, preferably with minimization of "coupling with the world economy." And raise your paws, for the sake of "kolbashka" - you will merge the country again. You will also lick blacks' asses and repent of everything that is possible and impossible, and you will fall in love with gays (yes, you will fall in love yourself). So go ahead - vote for "norot and for all the good, against all the bad." I played it back in the late 80s ...
    1. andrew42
      andrew42 5 August 2020 15: 34 New
      +2
      Having designated one abyss (the western yoke), so be so kind as to designate another - the new Russian nobility and fiscal serfdom for slaves. At the second "abyss" the bottom is a couple of meters higher, and the wall is slightly flatter, but still death.
    2. ycuce234-san
      ycuce234-san 10 August 2020 01: 14 New
      +1
      And what actually prevented "Russian business" from starting to produce the same consumer goods? A, small exhaust


      Passenger cars are also complex consumer goods and they, albeit often with a screwdriver, were produced inside. At the same time, it is possible to drive home the production of household appliances inside and increase its localization by the same methods and many times more successfully that were used in relation to foreign car manufacturers. It is just that there is no understanding yet that household appliances also have a sensitive effect on people's budgets - there is such an understanding about the car, but not about household appliances, when they realize that this is a significant factor for dispelling political indignation - they will drive them out.
  22. nikvic46
    nikvic46 5 August 2020 06: 40 New
    +2
    And yet, I think the main thing in the financial system of all time is the rapid turnover of money. The principle is one: I'd rather have this money today than tomorrow. I am confused by the confusion about capitalism and socialism. Long ago we learned that those social benefits received in the West were the result of workers' struggle for their rights. If they were sitting nothing without doing, they would have received nothing. All Western and our newspapers trumpet that socialism has been overthrown in the USSR. In fact, no country in the world has socialism. It is still under construction. If our leaders understood this, it would not exist. " developed socialism. "And they relaxed, socialism is built, and on the threshold of communism. The best measure of today's money are ordinary chain stores. An old fish from 170 to 350 rubles. With ten seas it is prohibitively expensive.
    1. Essex62
      Essex62 8 August 2020 18: 06 New
      -1
      Stomach again. Fish, sausage, gum, jeans. Socialism is built from horseradish. Built immediately
      Its foundations were established in 1917 and then modernized, in accordance with the ideas of the current leadership, in a separate (miraculously happened) country. The main postulates of this structure are selfish, selfish, backbone to the nail and an equal start from birth. Get a set of standard social benefits and if a highly talented and smart one strives for a minimum increase in well-being, in the form of a paycheck, a maximum of three times more, a personal wheelbarrow and a more spacious hut. Large unearned savings are criticized by a bullet against the wall.
  23. Alex66
    Alex66 5 August 2020 08: 23 New
    +6
    Everyone has long guessed that the government is compensating for its inability to fill the budget with the dollar exchange rate and that it is not tourists or other reasons that have nothing to do with it. There is not enough money in the budget, the exchange rate is being dropped, and budget revenues are increasing. We are driven by a team of twins from the St. Petersburg gateway.
  24. Esaul
    Esaul 5 August 2020 09: 20 New
    +4
    If the authors travel abroad by chance once every 10 years, this is their problem. But now everything depends on the ruble exchange rate, from food to cars. The cheaper the ruble, the more expensive it is for the population. Only the authorities and exporters are more profitable to push oil and gas for expensive euros and dollars, and they do not care about the impoverished population.
  25. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 5 August 2020 09: 24 New
    +1
    The seasonal factor and the purchase of foreign currency by the population are to blame.
    And spots! Sunspots!
    Our government is doing absolutely everything to "contain Russia." No American hawks do so much, no forces in the world are as malicious and strong in this matter as our own authorities. Their main task at the moment is to contribute in every way to the stagnation of our economy. They have many reasons for this, but the main one is that they are the same businessmen and economists, like any log of oak.
    If there are businessmen in Russia who do not kill, steal and do not take out of the state pocket for their wealth, and they are all finished. Our current elite in the management of economic entities is a deeply negative value. And the competition for it from those who CAN manage is hopeless. So forecasting the ruble's behavior is pointless. You can never guess the actions of an unprofessional, and, moreover, an extremely malicious dilettante. One thing I can say for sure - the behavior of our payment unit will be very, very destructive for the real sector. As always.
    1. Essex62
      Essex62 8 August 2020 18: 37 New
      0
      Everything is true, except for the belief in honest businessmen. There are no such in nature.
      A wolf only in a cage is not dangerous to others.
      1. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 10 August 2020 09: 09 New
        0
        I said somewhere that businessmen are honest ?! Have you tried reading the post before replying to it?
      2. Essex62
        Essex62 10 August 2020 09: 40 New
        0
        "There will be BUSINESSMEN in Russia who do not kill, steal and do not take out of the state pocket for their WEALTH ..."
        In my opinion, the position indicated by you is extremely clear. The backbone cannot be different. He is always a predator.
  26. Comrade Michael
    Comrade Michael 5 August 2020 10: 58 New
    -1
    And the ruble will fall ...!) And more than once ...
  27. Roman123567
    Roman123567 5 August 2020 12: 31 New
    -1
    there was talk about the impending default and the fall of the national currency to 100 rubles per euro or dollar.
    The euro is already almost 90.
    Sheer akhtung ..
  28. Andrey Posietsev
    Andrey Posietsev 6 August 2020 10: 10 New
    +1
    The government benefits from a low exchange rate - you can fulfill such social obligations with cut paper ... Plus, the ruble jumps are very beneficial for speculators who are all as one affiliated with the authorities. So hold on to the ruble. Like the Russian people. You have too many powerful internal enemies.
  29. Dmitry V.
    Dmitry V. 6 August 2020 13: 44 New
    0
    The ruble, no matter how wooden, oil or surrogate it is called, still has a serious support in the form of Russian oil and gas and the economy as a whole.

    And complete unpredictability from financial indicators, exceptional unpredictability from political and conjunctural considerations of one person.

    The zeroed one simply "fills the budget" - the depreciation of the ruble.
    It doesn't matter to him that a Chinese engineer gets more than a Russian engineer with a similar qualification for the same job.
    The incompetence in the economy of the current president is closed due to the impoverishment of the population, in the most primitive way - by the devaluation of the ruble.
    Devaluation is a hidden tax on the population. So virtually everyone paid out of their own pocket for an incompetent government and an irreplaceable president.

    2007 the cost of the yuan is 3,4 rubles., 2020 - 10,51 rubles per yuan - that is, in 13 years, a Russian worker / employee began to receive 3 times less (!) Than his Chinese colleague. Even despite the growth of wages in rubles, the purchasing power has decreased significantly.


    We look at the average salaries - Russia is worse than China.
  30. Put__NIK
    Put__NIK 6 August 2020 16: 37 New
    0
    2 questions also require 2 answers. The first answer: The ruble falls because the country is ruled by the Aligarhs and the dollar is most important to them, but they absolutely do not give a shit about people sinking to the bottom. Well, the second answer: Not when the ruling elite sitting and eating bucks will not allow the strengthening of the ruble. A strong ruble is a fairy tale.
  31. Erema
    Erema 7 August 2020 07: 03 New
    0
    People need to save their savings somewhere, so they go to the dollar, the economy does not develop, mostly nature is mother oil, ore, wheat, where to put the excess?
  32. Campanella
    Campanella 7 August 2020 10: 43 New
    0
    You don't need to buy the dollar, but the euro and the yuan!
  33. vavilon
    vavilon 7 August 2020 13: 52 New
    -1
    What kind of government is this and currency
  34. zontov79
    zontov79 11 August 2020 10: 04 New
    0
    Why is it falling? Because the Kremlin gang wanted it.
  35. LORD-72
    LORD-72 18 August 2020 21: 14 New
    0
    Why on earth would the colony's monetary unit grow !?
  36. LORD-72
    LORD-72 18 August 2020 21: 17 New
    0
    This is "IT" will worry about the ruble exchange rate ?!
  37. Sima anwar
    Sima anwar 29 August 2020 17: 46 New
    0
    Military gentlemen. The ruble can and should strengthen only in one case - you will begin to understand what is actually happening in the world and in our country. So the economy. When paying for resources, including gas, in dollars, 90% of the profit goes to the us FRS! That is, the states receive 9 times more than the same Gazprom! Where it comes from is the result of the abolition of gold parity in 1975. The scheme with a factor of 2 is extremely simple. We call the resource price in dollars. In the states, the budget is balanced, and there it immediately becomes known how many dollars Russia will receive per year. Therefore, this amount can be printed out quite calmly and lent to, say, Israel for the purchase of weapons in the states. At the same time, since the money will go from the US market to Russia, this procedure will not (and does not in fact) cause any niflation in the states. Thus, we printed money once, and then we received this amount for a loan of 2. This is how we got a coefficient of 2 for our announcement of the oil price in dollars. If you understand, explain to others. The coefficient of 9 is already due to the use of the French know-how in the states themselves. But 2, in a situation where there is no gold parity, is simply self-evident.

    So it's not about socialism capitalism that matters, but what is the genocide of the world's population is being prepared for -https: //zavtra.ru/blogs/kogda_oni_vtoroj_raz_vklyuchat_5g_millioni_lyudej_umrut

    I will also tell you the reason why and why. So why, because the Jews have no other way out in order to fulfill the task of the Torah - to take power on the planet completely into their own hands. This is due to the fact that the main mechanism for governing the world in Kabbalah is the very pure intention described by Zeland. But its implementation depends very significantly on the recipient of the impact, that is, people should be inclined to perceive the corresponding ideas. And of course the Jews themselves are primarily a focus group with all the corresponding consequences and side effects. But the Chinese and the Indians, due to the fundamental cultural difference, are not suitable for this (we omit the details for now) In this connection, it is necessary to reduce these at least 3 billion people, it is clear where these ecological legs grow from. By the way, this also explains the predictions about an ambulance war in which the award will go to Russia - the Chinese, Indians and Muslims, will fight, so there will be no winner among them. /sima.anwar.7/posts/1196340310519881

    And how to deal with such circumstances besides the withdrawal of Jews from all state structures and literary funds a la Comrade Stalin of the 1937 model I can’t even imagine.
  38. Alexey K._3
    Alexey K._3 3 September 2020 18: 38 New
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    The oligarch took care of the preservation of the unbearably acquired, incl. on a pandemic. A slight increase in the tax on the export of capital and the tax on income on deposits has been announced. What has the United Russia serving the oligarchs done in the Duma? - Took a delay in introducing these norms. The oligarchs are in a hurry to buy up currency as much as possible and hide it behind a hill with the authorities' non-resistance (they could impose restrictions on the export of currency before the new taxation procedure is introduced). The increase in demand for the currency entails its appreciation, although in the conditions of the grandiose emission of dollars and euros, it should become cheaper. If Gerashchenko had been in the Central Bank, this would not have happened. The people will come back to haunt this artificial impoverishment of the ruble by delayed inflation - the moneybags are again the winner.