Military Review

A truce that no one believed in

36
A truce that no one believed in

Results of the week



So, despite the general disbelief and outrage on the part of the patriotic public on both sides of the contact line, a week later it can be considered that the truce is more or less respected. Of course, not without violations, and the parties predictably accuse each other of breaking the truce, and the OSCE simply records the shootings, not too eager to name the perpetrators.

Thus, according to the Ukrainian side, during the first five days of the ceasefire, the LDNR people's militiamen violated the ceasefire 14 times and even "buried mines in Ukrainian positions, so that later they could accuse the Ukrainian side of violating the ceasefire" (don't ask, we cannot explain what does it mean). According to the OSCE, on Sunday, August 2, the sides violated the ceasefire 225 times: observers counted 44 explosions and 180 shots from a rifle weapons, as well as one unidentified explosion and one wounded civilian who received shrapnel wounds near Maryinka.

In the DPR, the first violation of the ceasefire by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was recorded on July 29, however, according to local residents, the Ukrainian side fires every day, starting on July 27. It's just that republican observers try not to notice these attacks, especially in the LPR they favor this practice.

And it still works


Be that as it may, despite sporadic skirmishes and provocations, the truce, to everyone's bewilderment, works. Of course, this is a great relief, first of all for the residents of the front-line settlements: it has not been so quiet for more than a year and a half. Of course, there is no guarantee that this utopia will last long enough, the carnage could begin at any moment. However, every quiet night is priceless for the war-worn inhabitants of the contact line.

In the meantime, in Ukraine, they habitually shouted about surrender and so that the truce with the "aggressor" would not seem to the Svidomo Ukrainians a betrayal of national interests, they announced another Russian offensive in the fall, and the ceasefire in Donbass was called "an opportunity for Russian mercenaries and militants to leave peacefully." The head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, gave the militia time to leave until November 9, threatening otherwise with "Plan B". What can you not do, just to calm down the nationalists!

New turn?


Against the backdrop of suddenly effective measures to ceasefire and the demarche of the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Dmitry Kozak, who refused to negotiate with the Ukrainian representative Andrei Yermak, thoughts of changing the paradigm of the conflict in Donbass involuntarily arise. I don’t want excessive optimism, but, perhaps, before our very eyes, Russia is switching to a new policy with regard to Kiev, unable to negotiate, which has more than a dozen times proved the futility of any negotiations. Whether it is true or not, will show the truce or the reaction to its failure on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (although traditionally the republics will be blamed).

In principle, if Russia manages to achieve a stable truce on the demarcation line, this will already be a victory and a huge help to the self-proclaimed republics. The absence of shelling and the possibility of obtaining Russian citizenship is far from a victory and not a solution to the painful issue of the future fate of the LPR, but at least these are already milestones, after passing which one can speak of some kind of stability and the presence of a future in the region.

And, of course, if this ceasefire (it is not known which one in a row) collapses, and only “deep concern” follows in response to the provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the population of the republics will receive another slap in the face, to which many will rush to respond with their feet, migrating to calmer and more comfortable places.
Author:
Photos used:
Press Service of the President of Ukraine
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  1. Lipchanin
    Lipchanin 3 August 2020 15: 38 New
    -3
    And, of course, if this truce (it is not known which one) collapses,

    Collapses yes
    Without a doubt, for the Ukrainian side has nothing
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 3 August 2020 15: 42 New
      +1
      New turn?


      That is,turn (reports resource Gorlovka Today with a link to materials https://newsua.ru/:

      Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, head of the political council of the Opposition Platform - For Life faction Viktor Medvedchuk went to Crimea, which caused a considerable resonance in the Ukrainian information space. Sources close to the government say that the purpose of the visit is not a vacation on the coast.

      Ukrainian media and a number of political telegram channels, citing their government sources, reported that Viktor Medvedchuk urgently left for Crimea to meet with Russian politicians.


      “Our source informs that Medvedchuk in Crimea will hold a number of meetings with Russian politicians, officials, as well as with persons from the Ukrainian political emigration. The topic of the conversation will be the Donbass case, future local elections in Ukraine, as well as preparations for a possible autumn Maidan. There is information that the meeting is planned primarily with people from the orbit of Dmitry Kozak and Mikhail Babich, "writes the Legitimny telegram channel, close to the office of the President of Ukraine Zelensky.

      Details on the website: https://newsua.ru/news/29670-smi-medvedchuk-otpravilsya-v-krym-dlya-resheniya-voprosa-po-donbassu
      # Russia # News # DPR # LPR # Ukraine #News
      1. Avior
        Avior 3 August 2020 15: 53 New
        +9
        Empty news, to be honest.
        Everyone knows very well that Medvedchuk is Putin's kum, and he has a business and an estate in Crimea.
        By the way, he took his wife with him.
        Medvedchuk decides nothing in Ukraine.
        1. Cristall
          Cristall 3 August 2020 21: 37 New
          +1
          Quote: Avior
          Medvedchuk decides nothing in Ukraine.

          I would not say that.
          Channel of communication with the Kremlin - times
          Manual batch with a certain percentage of two.
          He himself does not seem to decide. But it is valuable as a communication channel. No nationalists, Poroshenko, the army and the National Guard with all the "patriots" were able to defeat the "godfather of Putin" who freely oppresses the line. And all because Kiev has never lost contact with Moscow. Direct, reliable and "judging" by the unsinkability of Medvechuk - quite profitable.
          It is worth mentioning once again that Kiev and Moscow are partners.
  2. iouris
    iouris 3 August 2020 15: 38 New
    +6
    Kiev is waiting for the disintegration of the regime in Moscow. This regime has no other meaning of existence. The "Minsk process" goes to infinity. A "truce" is a truce, but a tactical trick connected with the replacement of Kuchma and the appointment of Kravchuk, with whom it is impossible to negotiate in principle (or on principle).
    1. Livonetc
      Livonetc 3 August 2020 15: 47 New
      +4
      The Minsk process goes into freezing mode.
      The truce is a consequence of the transition to this regime.
      Obviously, this problem has no solution for the foreseeable future.
      In fact, the list of unrecognized state entities has been enlarged.
      1. iouris
        iouris 3 August 2020 15: 55 New
        0
        Quote: Livonetc
        The Minsk process goes into freezing mode.

        Is it because Lukashenka is completely frozen? There has never been any "Minsk process", and there will never be: some cannot, while others still think they do not want to, but there will be a denouement.
    2. Insurgent
      Insurgent 3 August 2020 15: 47 New
      +2
      Quote: iouris
      A "truce" is a truce, but a tactical trick connected with the replacement of Kuchma and the appointment of Kravchuk, with whom it is impossible to negotiate in principle (or on principle).


      Thematic video, including how Kravchuk "hesitated with the party line" in the period 2014-19.

    3. Insurgent
      Insurgent 3 August 2020 16: 02 New
      +1
      Quote: iouris
      Kiev is waiting for the disintegration of the regime in Moscow. This regime has no other meaning of existence.

      Will die with this dream yes
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Poetry
    Poetry 3 August 2020 15: 44 New
    0
    The key word is "truce". Not "peace." This means re-grouping and hitting again. It's sad.
  5. magnate
    magnate 3 August 2020 15: 50 New
    +1
    According to opinion polls, 75% of Ukrainians want an end to the war
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 3 August 2020 15: 57 New
      +3
      Quote: Magnat
      According to opinion polls, 75% of Ukrainians want an end to the war

      But the Sabbath is run by a minuscule - less than 8 - 12% of the stoned Svidomites and Banderaites ...
      1. magnate
        magnate 3 August 2020 16: 08 New
        -1
        Quote: - ,, despite the general disbelief and indignation from the patriotic public on both sides of the line of demarcation "
        Please remind me what percentage of the patriotic public on your part, and how many percent do not care (too lazy to look)
        1. Insurgent
          Insurgent 3 August 2020 16: 22 New
          -2
          Quote: Magnat
          Please remind me what percentage of the patriotic public on your part, and how many percent

          Perhaps for simplicity, I will bring together the number of those who are unequivocally in favor of the DPR joining the Russian Federation (I will only talk about us, let the Luhansk people "take the rap" about the LPR yes ) and those who see the DPR as an independent unit (which, in other respects, does not prevent both of them from sitting in the same trench), such up to 85 - 87%.
          8-10 percent, "do not care", the rest are categorically for returning to the Outskirts, but here, too, there are some nuances that are expressed in,in which They want the outskirts ...
          Some of them are not satisfied with the current Bandera. They want this "as before the war" ...

          But this is only an approximate sample, because there are those who hide their negative attitude towards the idea of ​​both the DPR and integration with the Russian Federation. Therefore, it may be necessary to "throw" a percentage of 2-3 ...
          1. magnate
            magnate 3 August 2020 16: 53 New
            +1
            Question: Is it really quiet there?
      2. Vladimir Kiev
        Vladimir Kiev 3 August 2020 17: 04 New
        +2
        The insurgent is right here. The always more active aggressive minority sets the vector for the development of social processes with weak state institutions. Nevertheless, it seems that by the time of the local elections in Ukraine and the Russian Federation in September, the authorities would benefit from maintaining the truce and freezing the situation. Let's take a look.
    2. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin 3 August 2020 16: 41 New
      -4
      Quote: Magnat
      According to opinion polls, 75% of Ukrainians want an end to the war

      But they do not solve anything, and no one will listen to them.
      1. magnate
        magnate 3 August 2020 16: 48 New
        0
        If the authorities do not listen to the majority, then in the next elections (to local councils) they will receive a minority, this is how it works for us
        1. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin 3 August 2020 18: 34 New
          -2
          Quote: Magnat
          , this is how it works for us

          Nothing works for you there. Where is the end of the war that it talks about
          According to opinion polls 75% of Ukrainians want an end to the war

          Also tell the laws work
          1. magnate
            magnate 3 August 2020 18: 38 New
            0
            At least electoral legislation works
            And tell me why exactly Ukraine should make concessions in one person?
            1. Lipchanin
              Lipchanin 3 August 2020 18: 42 New
              -1
              Quote: Magnat
              At least electoral legislation works

              But after the elections, EVERYONE sharply forgets what they promised
              And tell me why exactly Ukraine should make concessions in one person

              Is the implementation of the Minsk agreements concessions?
              1. magnate
                magnate 3 August 2020 20: 08 New
                0
                I recommend reading how everything works for us (theoretically, because there was no precedent yet). https://strana.ua/news/282263-stefanchuk-dopustil-vynesenie-na-referendum-status-donbassa-i-jazykovoj-vopros.html
            2. Insurgent
              Insurgent 3 August 2020 19: 04 New
              0
              Quote: Magnat
              why exactly Ukraine should make concessions in one person?

              May I answer?
              Ukraine should not, but must to yield, since it is she who is guilty of unleashing a war against us. To her to redeem and redeem yes And not only in front of us, the republics, but also in front of their citizens whom she embroiled in a coup d'état and the subsequent punitive operation - a war.
              1. The comment was deleted.
                1. Insurgent
                  Insurgent 3 August 2020 19: 20 New
                  0
                  Quote: Magnat
                  Ukraine is not obliged, but obliged to answer specific characters in the face of the entire post-Maidan elite, as well as Strelkov, Aksenov and their sponsors

                  Well ... Since there is no understanding, it will be necessary in the future, to act by repression and brute force, as in the denazification of Germany ...
                  1. magnate
                    magnate 3 August 2020 19: 32 New
                    -1
                    Look one-sidedly and reason
                    It is difficult to refer me to "Nazis"
                    What exactly do you do if you get merged?
                    1. Insurgent
                      Insurgent 3 August 2020 19: 42 New
                      +1
                      Quote: Magnat
                      Look one-sidedly and reason
                      It is difficult to refer me to "Nazis"

                      But they are not very similar to a moderate-minded person either ...

                      Quote: Magnat
                      What exactly do you do if you get merged?


                      They will not merge No. Even if it is primitive to reason that we are "suitcase without handle", anyway, its contents, which are filled daily by" newly minted "citizens of the Russian Federation, will not allow us to leave.

                      "The lot was thrown", and"Rubicon crossed" yes

                      So recourse ... You can not rely on such a scenario of developments.

                      Time is working for us, and against you ...
                      1. magnate
                        magnate 3 August 2020 19: 51 New
                        0
                        Pompous style, clichés, slogans, don't you work in the political department?
                      2. Insurgent
                        Insurgent 4 August 2020 07: 57 New
                        0
                        Quote: Magnat
                        Pompous style, clichés, slogans, don't you work in the political department?

                        Well, "figure out" me who I am, you have little guts, but to understand with whom in this case I am dealing, in the face of the newly-minted magnate - is not difficult at all. yes
                        Recently banned Rothmans,is not it wink ?
                      3. Marginal
                        Marginal 4 August 2020 09: 16 New
                        0
                        Yes, I don't seem to be hiding, they just ban
            3. sevryuk
              sevryuk 3 August 2020 21: 48 New
              +1
              The beginner will answer ...
          2. Cristall
            Cristall 3 August 2020 21: 50 New
            +1
            Quote: Insurgent
            Ukraine should not, but is obliged to concede, since it is she who is guilty of unleashing a war against us.

            so Ukraine gives you more rights than any other Ukrainian region.
            Of course, many of you are sure that she only declares this, but in reality it will be different. I agree that in Ukraine one thing is often said and another is done. However, in this region, all countries have a problem with this.
            Similarly, you are considered guilty in many ways in other regions of the country and could also demand an answer. Exactly as well as from Kiev for its actions and policies.
            But all this needs to be addressed within a single country. And without you and the Crimea, the Ukrainian majority has more weight than the Russian. Previously it was the other way around.
            And yes, we do not count the stamps, a coup d'etat, a punitive operation. If this had not happened, we would not have recaptured 2/3 of the captured .. But we would have allowed many gray zones throughout the south.
  • Cristall
    Cristall 3 August 2020 21: 39 New
    +2
    Quote: Magnat
    According to opinion polls, 75% of Ukrainians want an end to the war

    right. Only with a small caveat. Without surrendering the interests of the country (territories)
  • Imperial Technocrat
    Imperial Technocrat 3 August 2020 17: 00 New
    0
    It’s even strange that loxes suddenly began to more or less comply with obligations
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 3 August 2020 17: 08 New
      0
      Quote: Imperial Technocrat
      It’s even strange that loxes suddenly began to more or less comply with obligations

      Well, you have to wait until the US handouts. Until the money arrives, you need to sit quietly. And in general, there are elections in the USA, who will be elected there? Accordingly, for Ukraine, it is almost Shakespeare's "To be or not to be"?
  • Asad
    Asad 3 August 2020 17: 35 New
    +2
    As they say, chickens are counted in autumn! What conclusions can you draw in a week?
  • Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 3 August 2020 18: 08 New
    0
    For seven years Kuchma "muddied the water", now Kravchuk will have a seven-year term, then Parashenko, then ...