I have long been accustomed to the fact that the leadership of the Russian Federation lives in some kind of special world, where we go from victory to victory, where the overwhelming majority of the population votes for United Russia, and where the people's well-being grows by leaps and bounds from year to year. But it is interesting to observe when someone from our establishment suddenly accidentally collides with objective reality.
It all started with the fact that a survey commissioned by the IC "Rosgosstrakh Life" showed that the number of citizens of the Russian Federation forced to live on 15 rubles. and less, it grows. By the way, you should make a reservation right away: we are not talking about wages, but about income per family member. That is, if a certain husband gets his hands on, that is, minus taxes, 000 thousand rubles, his wife - 25 thousand rubles, they have no part-time jobs or other sources of income, but they have one small and therefore nowhere working child , then the income of this family is 20 rubles. per person per month.
The result, frankly speaking, is somehow inconvenient, does not correspond to the historical moment and is generally ideologically wrong. It is not surprising that the press secretary of our president Dmitry Peskov responded to this challenge as follows:
“I would answer carefully here. We do not know the calculation methodology or other criteria. The sample is far from the largest. It can be said unambiguously that it is incorrect to draw conclusions at the federal level on the basis of such a sample "
And, of course, the spokesman added that the problem of poverty is a priority in the activities of both the president and the government. He added that the elimination of poverty is "what practically all development programs are aimed at."
On the one hand, it seems to be true, in the course of the survey, only about one and a half thousand of our fellow citizens phoned. But let's still "see", as they say in Odessa.
About our income
Let's start with the average wage. Under Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, she grew by leaps and bounds. In 2000, the average salary in the Russian Federation was 2 rubles, but in 223 it was already 2019 rubles!
But let's bring the average wage in the Russian Federation by years from 2000 to 2019 to the base year 2000, using the official inflation data. After all, everyone understands that wages are growing from year to year, and only inflation is on the rise. And by introducing the appropriate amendments, we will get an increase in wages on a comparable scale, that is, in rubles of purchasing power in 2000. And, which is characteristic, the picture turns out well, very blissful.
Everything would be fine, but I have no faith in the official statistics on inflation. The temptation is too great to play a little with her, achieving beautiful results. How is that? For example, the country produced all kinds of products and services during the year so that their cost turned out to be 5% more than in the previous year. Sounds great, but what if inflation was 7% over the same period? Then it turns out that we produced something 2% less than last year, just the prices for everything went up.
And if you twist it a little and announce that inflation was not 7%, but only 3%? Well, then the picture changes dramatically: inflation is relatively low, and some kind of growth in production (by 2%) has appeared. With such figures it is not a sin to go to the report Himself.
I will not accuse anyone of Rosstat, because I did not catch them by the hand. But then you go into the store, you look at the prices, you remember the official statistics, and something does not want to converge with a credit, even cry. So, dear readers, if any of you believe in the official inflation data, then you may not read this article further. Congratulate yourself on what a wonderful country you live in, admire your well-being, which is tirelessly striving upward, despite all the hardships of crises and pandemics, and that's fine. I'll continue for everyone else.
Inflation is understandable, but what if we recalculate our average salary in dollars? Just don't scribble angry philippics on the topic that, they say, we buy goods not for dollars, but for rubles. You'd better tell me which Russian company produced the components for the computer or laptop from which you print it? The huge masses of household appliances and vehicles sold in Russia are imported. Clothing? It happens domestically, I admit it. But there is a lot of Chinese, and even when we sew ourselves, it is often from imported materials. And on imported sewing equipment. Food? And everything is not great here. Here, take the same meat: it seems like a domestic product, but only the food of pigs there or gobies is quite often imported. And in domestic fast food, this very meat will be fried in palm oil with pleasure. But palm trees, as you know, are not so completely domestic plant. Or take milk: advanced farms buy dairy cows in the West in order to increase milk yield, despite the fact that these milk yields are carried out by imported machine milking installations, and the resulting milk is also poured into packages for you with imported equipment. Saplings, seeds: again, tens of percent of the total stock are bought abroad. And so everywhere, what do not touch: it seems to be ours, but it seems to be not quite ...
But, generally speaking, the dynamics of our average wages in dollars is not too disappointing either.
Steady growth until 2008 is evident, and then - yes, the crisis knocked down, but then they started to grow again, and if it were not for the Ukrainian coup, the return of Crimea, sanctions and the crisis that followed, everything would have been absolutely great. But even without that, we have already surpassed the 2008 indicators!
However ... there is a nuance. The dollar is also subject to inflation. That is, one dollar in 2008 could buy, unlike a dollar in 2019, and if we recalculate the purchasing value of our wages, taking into account dollar inflation, then a slightly different picture is obtained.
That is, the 2008 crisis did not kill us, in a year we got up from our knees, shook ourselves off and went further up the hill. But the second hit already seriously: during 2014-2016. rolled back to the level of 2006 and then only slow growth began, culminating in the fact that in 2019 they finally returned to the level of the crisis, disastrous 2009.
So we can safely say that the real incomes of citizens of the Russian Federation in the period 2008-2019. set a course for reduction. In 2008, they amounted to $ 575,40 of the "2000 model", and then, although at the peak they reached as much as $ 698,25, they immediately sank to $ 394,64, and only last year some - how they reached $ 500,66
Here, probably, some of the readers will remind that the average salary figures are pretty fake, because there is tax evasion by employers. And the salary is paid in gray envelopes, without fixing anywhere, which is why the real average salary is still higher than the official one. That is, that is, about gray envelopes - the true truth, but we also have another problem - called "self-employed". We have such a category of citizens, whose number was estimated by the same Sberbank at 15 million people, but there were also much larger estimates. Certainly, some of them are talented programmers, lawyers, designers and people of other professions who are tired of working for their uncle and make excellent money themselves. And they make good money, by the way. Yes, only the majority of the “self-employed” are completely different people who would be happy to work, but nowhere, but you don’t want to go to bed in accordance with the behests of A. B. Chubais, so whoever can interrupt. But they do not participate in the statistics of the average salary, since they do not declare their income, and if we take them into account, then, most likely, the average salary in the Russian Federation, even taking into account its “gray” part, will not only not grow - it will sink down ...
Of course, not a single salary ... People have other sources of income. From entrepreneurial activity, from renting out property, etc. etc. But you need to understand that among people with a salary of 15-45 thousand rubles. such incomes have, how to say, "not only everything." Well, they don't pay them multimillion-dollar annual bonuses, and, as a rule, there is not enough money to buy an apartment and rent it out: here we ourselves would have a place to live.
Well, here's the real income of the population in 2014-2015. gone at the peak. But then the publications of our "gurus from economics" came on the scene, sincerely confident that the HSE diploma replaces not only experience in industry and agriculture, but also common sense. The general message was this: we were too "stuck", so that wage funds became too heavy for enterprises. But now salaries have been reduced, our industry has gained a competitive advantage, and then there is also the import substitution program proclaimed from the Highest Tribune, and now we will step into a bright capitalist future ... Well, since 2014, 6 years have passed. Have you stepped?
About the poor
But the number of the poor in our country, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, has decreased. In 2008 there were 19 million of them, and in 2019 - already only 18,1 million! But who is a poor man in our country? This is a person with incomes below the subsistence level. Which at the end of 2019 was already 10 609 rubles. per capita (for working people - 11 rubles). If you have more - yes you are ... well, not a millionaire, of course, but the middle class - for sure.
Okay, be that as it may, but is there a reduction in the number of poor people? There is. Is this a success? Yes, success - unless you pay attention to the fact that the decline in the poor is almost within the margin of error. Well, if, of course, do not take into account the fact that in 2008 the subsistence minimum was estimated at 4 rubles, that is, at 693 dollars at the rate of 188,7, and in 2008 at the current rate it was only $ 2019. This is even without conversion to the dollar inflation rate. In general, they reduced the cost of living by 163,88% in dollar terms - we got a decrease in the number of the poor by 13,2% ... But what can you say to the fact that an attempt to live at this very cost of living even for one month is simply dangerous to health (MP Saratov region Bondarenko tried, for which honor and praise, but the verdict of the doctors was harsh)? Well, excuse me, you didn't fit into the market? Check out! The Ministry of Labor will help: in the 4,7st quarter of 1, they proposed to lower the cost of living. This is how soon the number of the poor in our country will decrease!
Let's just say, with such "successes" for a decade, I would be ashamed to declare to the whole country that "the problem of poverty is a priority in the activities of both the president and the government." Maybe that's why I'm not a press secretary.
On income of 15 thousand rubles.
But let's return to the income of 15 rubles, which embarrassed D. Peskov. There is such a thing - median wages. Its meaning is this: half of the country's working population receives a salary above the median value, and half - below. So, the median salary in the Russian Federation calculated in April 000 was 2019 rubles.
Now we do a little calculation. With a salary of 34 rubles, a person, net of income tax, will receive 335 rubles. The figure is actually crafty: when calculating, Rosstat did not take small and micro-enterprises, limiting itself only to medium and large businesses, so in fact the median salary is even lower. But nevertheless, if we take the officialdom, it turns out that the budget of the family, where both husband and wife work and receive a median salary, will amount to about 29 thousand rubles.
Now let's remember such a thing as demography. In order for the population to grow, 2,15 children need to be born per woman. Just because, unfortunately, life is harsh, not all children reach adulthood, and of those who have achieved, not everyone is given to have children, etc. But let's not torment ourselves with tenths of a child: let's assume that in order to somehow make demographic ends meet, we need to have two children per family.
The problem is that if the above-mentioned family with its median salary still has two children, then its income per family member will be 14 rubles. And from this follows a simple, elementary conclusion: if half of the working residents of the Russian Federation (in fact, this number is more, but we take the official statistics) fulfill their "demographic duty", then they will have to live on less than 935,73 rubles. per month per person. And for this you do not need to know the “sampling”, the “calculation methodology” that D. Peskov spoke about - everything is in the official statistics!
In 2019, the Levada Center conducted a survey of our fellow citizens on the topic of the real cost of living, and according to its results, a figure of 21 thousand rubles was named. per person for the country as a whole. In the author's opinion, this figure is very close to the truth, given that it is average: that is, in a number of northern regions it will naturally be much higher due to high heating costs, food prices, etc. the middle part of Russia - below. But even a family that receives a median salary, having just one child, will fall below this level - in this case, the income per family member will be only 19 rubles. per person. And half of the population of the Russian Federation will have even less!
In other words, in our current economic situation, for at least half of the residents of the Russian Federation, even one child in a family is a luxury. It is clear that it is difficult to go against nature, and people still give birth (God will help them and all prosperity!), But the result of this is life on the verge, or even beyond the verge of poverty - at least as long as the child itself will not start earning.
Of course, everything seems to be not so bad on the average in the hospital: the average salary in 2019 was 47 rubles, so the average family of two working adults and two children, after deducting all taxes, will have an average per capita income of 867 , 20 rubles. per person. But the problem is that these incomes are very differentiated, as shown by the median. That is, we have a number of very high-paid people, and a large number of low-paid people. And the highly paid, which is not surprising at all, prefer to spend money on "carriages, races, parties, voyages", as Vysotsky sang in his time, but by no means on solving demographic problems. For example, in our country more than 822,15 thousand people have a salary of 11 rubles. and higher. Someone seriously thinks that each such person brings up fifty children or more?
And further. Very often, when discussing the problem of low wages in the Russian Federation, it is said: "Do not complain, but go to the place where they pay more and earn!" So, this, of course, is the right approach, because a person is himself the blacksmith of his own happiness. But you need to understand: in the country in 2019, only 12% of the population had a salary of 75 rubles. and more. That is, while earning, say, 000 rubles, of course, you can try and start earning 20 rubles, but the number of jobs, alas, will not change from this - in the economy, as there were 000% of jobs with a salary of 100 thousand . rub. and higher will remain so. In other words, after learning, gaining experience, etc. etc., you can improve your position, but it will be your personal success, and nothing more. Because you get a relatively high-paying job and someone else won't get it.
You can, of course, say: “Create jobs yourself!”, And this is also an excellent recipe for success. But again - only your own. The problem is that the purchasing power of the population as a whole will not change from this. If, say, you open your hairdressing salon at the most attractive price-quality ratio, then, of course, clients will come to you. People will have their hair cut, you will earn money and become richer. But this will only mean that someone has lost the customers who are now coming to you, and now they will earn less. That is, your personal efforts can slightly redistribute the cash flows existing in the country in your favor, but cannot increase them. Simply put, if a person has 300 rubles that he wants to spend on watching a movie in a cinema, then exactly 300 rubles. he will spend, no matter how many cinemas in his area.
And further. Very often today, the rate of motorization of the Russian Federation is demonstrated as an increase in the well-being of citizens. How many times have I already read in articles and comments the opinion of vigilant comrades: they say, everyone complains that money is bad, and cars are forced to all yards, neither walk nor cross the road. Before and close this was not!
And indeed: if in the same 2000 there were about 1000 passenger cars per 132 inhabitants of the Russian Federation, then already in 2016 more than twice as many - 285. We got stuck as it is, dear fellow citizens!
It is only strange that these same comrades do not tell us how you and I lived beautifully in the 90s of the last century and what a gigantic increase in prosperity fell upon us then. What? Was there no growth in the "wild 90s"? Was the economy at its peak? Was it all falling apart and falling into poverty? Well, excuse me, but the number of cars per capita grew at a gigantic pace: in 1993 there were only 75,7 cars per thousand people, in 2000, as mentioned above, 132, respectively, from 1993 to 2000. the indicator increased by almost 1,75 times.
How so? Everything is very simple. Once upon a time, a car was a luxury item, but today, with the growth of technology, it has become much cheaper than other goods and therefore has become much more affordable. So, in 1988 "Moskvich" cost about 45 average wages. Today, a mediocre car for 750 thousand rubles. costs less than 18 average salaries (on hand). That is, it was not we who began to receive more, it was cars that began to cost less, hence the growth in their number with us.
The conclusion is very simple. The current economic system still justified itself in 2000-2008, but today it is, in principle, unable to ensure not only an increase, but even a simple reproduction of the population of the Russian Federation. Which, by the way, is “brilliantly” confirmed by our indicators of natural population growth: in the period from 2000 to 2019, the decline (or, as it is now fashionable to say, negative growth) of the population due to the excess of mortality over birth rate amounted to over 8 thousand. people
Of course, high incomes by themselves do not guarantee a high birth rate, which we can see in a number of developed capitalist countries. But still, one cannot count on an improvement in the demographic situation in conditions when at least half of the population, in order not to slip into poverty, should have no more than one child in a family or have no children at all.
Please tell someone about this to the President's Press Secretary D. Peskov. He must learn at least a little about the country in which he lives.