Military Review

Will Egypt decide to send Su-35 to Libya: two likely scenarios

62

The first batch of Su-35 fighters went to Egypt. In the light of recent events in Libya, the question arises whether Cairo will use Russian fighters against pro-Turkish armed formations in a neighboring country?


The agreement to supply Egypt with more than 20 Su-35 aircraft entered into force at the end of 2018. Thus, Egypt became the second country in the world after China to receive the latest Russian fighters. In Cairo, the attitude towards the air force and the strengthening of its combat power has always been special. The late Hosni Mubarak, himself a native of the Air Force (and, by the way, a graduate of the Soviet military flight school), at one time paid a lot of attention to equipping aviation modern aircraft at that time, and Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi took this baton.

The acquisition of the Su-35 is viewed by the Egyptian military-political leadership as an important step towards ensuring the dominance of the country's air force in the region. However, in North Africa the Egyptian aviation is already the strongest and most well-armed, but in Cairo they are interested in further strengthening their military dominance in the region.

The armed conflict in Libya, which has intensified especially in recent months, is characterized by a rather low level of use of aviation. Both the Faiz Saraj Government of National Accord and the Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar have few planes, as well as few qualified pilots. Unmanned aerial vehicles of Turkish production, carefully supplied by Ankara to its satellite Saraj, are showing much more efficiency.

The intervention of the Egyptian armed forces in the Libyan conflict will radically change the existing balance of power. With all the active support from Turkey, the Libyan troops of Saraj and the Syrian militants from Idlib arriving to help them will not be able to fight the Egyptian army, which is many times superior in number, armament and training. Egyptian military aircraft will immediately establish air supremacy, which will also significantly complicate the actions of Tripoli's supporters.


Egyptian Air Force planes on military exercises Qader 2020

As for the use of Su-35 aircraft in the Libyan conflict, there are two scenarios here. The first scenario is that Egypt will not send new, just received fighters to Libya, also because other Egyptian planes will perfectly cope with the suppression of militants. Considering that the PNS has practically no aviation, and Turkey is still unlikely to go into open confrontation with Egypt, older aircraft can also operate in the skies over Libya.

The second scenario is that Egyptian President Abdul-Fattah al-Sisi would really like to test the aircraft received from Russia in practice. Then participation in an armed operation in Libya will become a baptism of fire for the Su-35 of the Egyptian Air Force. Moreover, it is unlikely to use them against ground targets. The very appearance of these Egyptian "Dryers" in the sky of Libya is important - it is hypothetical. The use of the latest aircraft will demonstrate to both the enemy and Egypt's neighbors the opportunities that have opened up to the Egyptian military aviation. In addition, Egyptian military pilots will be able to gain real combat experience on Su-35 aircraft, which is also important, given the difficult military-political situation in the region.

It should be noted that the Su-35 will definitely be used by Cairo, if not directly in hostilities in Libya, then as another threat to the PNS army: they say, do not cross the designated line, or we will use military force, including the latest aircraft ...

If, nevertheless, Egypt uses the Su-35 in Libya, then Libyan militants from the formations fighting on the side of the PNS will not be able to resist these aircraft. All hope will be in Turkey, which, by the way, is already armed with the S-400 air defense system, also of Russian production. Publicist Basel Haj Jasem, in his article in the Daily Sabah, has already made a proposal to transfer anti-aircraft missile systems to North Africa.
Author:
Photos used:
Twitter / Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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  1. svp67
    svp67 24 July 2020 10: 02 New
    15
    Whatever, something to experience in battle, it would not hurt to master it well. But I don’t think that the Egyptian pilots have mastered the Su-35 well enough to throw them into battle “from ship to ball”. Well, it's up to the Egyptian leadership ...
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 24 July 2020 10: 14 New
      +6
      Quote: svp67
      I don’t think that the Egyptian pilots have mastered the Su-35 well enough to throw them into battle “from ship to ball”.

      Well,"from the ship to the ball", this is how to look yes

      Who knows how many pilots of the Egyptian Air Force and technical personnel completed a training course in the Russian Federation on the Su-35, and on what program ...
      1. svp67
        svp67 24 July 2020 10: 20 New
        +1
        Quote: Insurgent
        Who knows how many pilots of the Egyptian Air Force and technical personnel completed a training course in the Russian Federation on the Su-35, and on what program ...

        Somehow, experience shows that this is still not enough ... well, if only the "instructors" are attracted
        1. Insurgent
          Insurgent 24 July 2020 10: 26 New
          +3
          Quote: svp67
          Somehow, experience shows that this is still not enough ... well, if only the "instructors" are attracted

          Aside from thinking about "ready not ready", then it is the practical plane that says that sometimes all no matter what.

          We wish, of course, the Egyptians to avoid the development of events according to this scenario, but practice is practice.
          1. Lipchanin
            Lipchanin 24 July 2020 10: 52 New
            -1
            Quote: Insurgent
            that sometimes everything rushes into battle no matter what.

            Example of the Second World War. Takeoff and landing courses and into battle.
            At one of the first airshows, I drew attention to the sites in the aviation center on which the aircraft were not in service for a long time. Almost MiG-21 and later.
            I asked why.
            They said that in the event of a war they would be deactivated, they would put pilots in them who flew on them from the reserve and into battle.
            Probably the truth was told request
            1. mehan
              mehan 24 July 2020 13: 00 New
              +4
              Those pilots are already under 70.
              1. Lipchanin
                Lipchanin 24 July 2020 13: 07 New
                0
                Quote: mehan
                Those pilots are already under 70.

                I agree. But this conversation was around the beginning of 2000.
                But the planes were already after the MiG-21.
                But then it is not clear why so many of them were collected there, not one hundred
                1. mehan
                  mehan 24 July 2020 13: 15 New
                  +3
                  Does not matter. When I left, at 90m, our 22 were already ancient, and the pilots were well over thirty. There were no new strategists, and it was stupid to retrain old people to be hawks.
                  Youngsters, it is generally easy to teach, if according to the American method. But to raise the old iron is almost impossible. As an aircraft technician, I declare. And the middle band is not Arizona, and in general.
                  1. Lipchanin
                    Lipchanin 24 July 2020 13: 18 New
                    0
                    So I don’t understand, then why were they so many gathered there? request
                    1. mehan
                      mehan 24 July 2020 13: 23 New
                      +1
                      " dead Souls".
                      I don't care that they can't fly. Is there a regiment? Is there a staff? Ranks - there is, the money is dripping.
                      This is me so, habitually cynical. I served and saw.
                      1. Lipchanin
                        Lipchanin 24 July 2020 13: 24 New
                        +1
                        But these are on conservation. They're out of state
                      2. mehan
                        mehan 24 July 2020 13: 31 New
                        0
                        Do you think a couple of generals are not grubbing there?
                        You do not know much about European cuisine.
                      3. Lipchanin
                        Lipchanin 24 July 2020 13: 36 New
                        0
                        Quote: mehan
                        Do you think a couple of generals are not grubbing there?
                        You do not know much about European cuisine.

                        So I don't say that I know.
                        Just wondering why so many old planes were collected in one place
                      4. Shadow041
                        Shadow041 24 July 2020 14: 26 New
                        +2
                        In the late 90s, early 2000s, due to the development of a resource by combat aircraft and the lack of purchases of new machines, I heard conversations and proposals to return the MiG-23MLD to service, there are all the electronics from the early MiG-29 series
                      5. Lipchanin
                        Lipchanin 24 July 2020 14: 30 New
                        0
                        I was talking about MiG-21 and less old, but old
                      6. mehan
                        mehan 24 July 2020 14: 42 New
                        0
                        And what about the engine and airframe resource? It is also not infinite!
                      7. Cyril G ...
                        Cyril G ... 25 July 2020 20: 21 New
                        0
                        I heard on the second Chechen they wanted to reactivate the MiG-23/27 regiment, but it did not work ...
                    2. mehan
                      mehan 24 July 2020 14: 40 New
                      0
                      Well I also speak. Sinecure, stars and money.
                      If it flares up with the use of Yao, who will be raised from the trash? And there will be no more tasks for them. Not counting pilots, techies, fuel and ammo. Well, it makes no sense.
                      And if the conventional, or there, the zombie apocalypse .... even more so, they make no sense. Only a source of goodies.
                      When my Tu-22s were cut, my heart did not bleed .. Their era is gone forever. Why should they rot in an abandoned parking lot? And so, how can tea clippers ... take them to the roadstead, with flags, and torpedo?
                      As Porthos used to say, "I respect old age, but not in soup!"
                    3. Lipchanin
                      Lipchanin 24 July 2020 14: 42 New
                      0
                      Quote: mehan
                      As Porthos used to say, "I respect old age, but not in soup!"

                      Well said good smile
                    4. mehan
                      mehan 24 July 2020 21: 34 New
                      +2
                      This is Dumas.
                      I often remember Nov.
                      True, old age is different. I have a Volga 74 years old. I won't throw it away. For the soul. Inheritance from his father-in-law, he was a squadron engineer.
                      Can be tuned indefinitely, the base is very long-lived. With a Zhiguli, even younger, this will not work.
                      It's about the same with airplanes.
                      An 26 will fly up to 50x. Like the eternal Catalina.
  • Alt 22
    Alt 22 25 July 2020 10: 51 New
    +1
    Experienced pilots. For example, al Lisitsyn, an experienced ace)
  • Invoce
    Invoce 24 July 2020 10: 21 New
    +6
    Quote: Insurgent
    Who knows how many pilots of the Egyptian Air Force and technical personnel completed a training course in the Russian Federation on the Su-35, and on what program ...

    "A couple" of export flights, well, a couple of dozen with an instructor and independent, but according to the course of combat use, they were definitely not prepared in Russia. Very expensive, and there are no free planes for the foreign customer. When selling aircraft, the Contract provides for training of technical personnel, and theoretical training, + simulator and testing of piloting skills in Russia for the foreign customer's flight personnel. Further, in their course of combat training, using their own ASP
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent 24 July 2020 10: 29 New
      +2
      Quote: Invoce
      Very expensive, and there are no free planes for the foreign customer.

      Even when "Foreign customer"ready to pay good money?
    2. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin 24 July 2020 10: 54 New
      0
      Quote: Invoce
      Very expensive

      So after all, we do not pay for the training, so the price does not matter
      "Every whim for your money"
    3. mehan
      mehan 24 July 2020 13: 07 New
      +1
      A bit wrong.
      At the time of Ona, pilots, specifically Libyan ones, trained the UAC in Zyabrovka. Tu-22, specifically. By the way, Muammar visited.
      Techies, ours were trained locally. My father-in-law, it was in Libya that he did this. My colleagues, in Iraq and elsewhere, are easier and cheaper. This is true for YES.
      I think it's about the same with fighters.
      By the way, there was a case. Our instructor, on a spark, in Libya, was dragged by local trainees not along the route, to the south. It turned out that they secretly bombed a column in the desert. There, exactly a war with Chad was.
      He almost turned gray when he realized what they had put him into ....)))
  • Uncle Izya
    Uncle Izya 24 July 2020 10: 24 New
    -5
    For example, test with Russian pilots, against Turkish f-16-35
    1. Charik
      Charik 24 July 2020 12: 26 New
      +1
      do Turks have F35?
      1. Uncle Izya
        Uncle Izya 24 July 2020 18: 44 New
        -2
        Written 4 pieces managed to deliver
        1. Charik
          Charik 24 July 2020 20: 00 New
          +1
          where it is written
          1. Uncle Izya
            Uncle Izya 24 July 2020 20: 04 New
            -2
            The wiki says
        2. Cyril G ...
          Cyril G ... 24 July 2020 20: 09 New
          +4
          And they are not in the States hung up by chance?
  • Crabong
    Crabong 29 July 2020 12: 37 New
    0
    That's right. The Yegittyans have already shown the "excellent" training of their Air Force in the past.
  • Ingvar 72
    Ingvar 72 24 July 2020 10: 05 New
    +5
    No, it won't. Egypt has something to send there besides the SU-35, and it will be just not smart to send there the equipment not yet mastered by the pilots.
  • Kostadinov
    Kostadinov 24 July 2020 10: 11 New
    +3
    To feed the Su-35 in battle, they must fight with someone. Since the participation of the Algerian Air Force is excluded, the enemy can only beat the Turkish F-16.
    1. Uncle Izya
      Uncle Izya 24 July 2020 18: 51 New
      -1
      Why is it impossible?
      Won on the news Algeria pulled up the Iskander uh
    2. Alex777
      Alex777 26 July 2020 17: 52 New
      0
      And who said that the participation of Algerian troops is out of the question?
      They uncovered the Iskander-E.
      https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2955329.html
  • Livonetc
    Livonetc 24 July 2020 10: 38 New
    0
    Or I missed something, or incorrect wording in the article.
    I may be wrong, but the production of SU35 for Egypt has started, but the delivery has not yet been completed.
    Egypt has not yet acquired these machines.
    1. And Makarov
      And Makarov 24 July 2020 11: 10 New
      12
      The day before yesterday in the news - about sending the first Su-35 to Egypt. Hence the noise.
      1. Charik
        Charik 24 July 2020 12: 27 New
        +1
        First Five aircraft
  • Cyril G ...
    Cyril G ... 24 July 2020 11: 22 New
    0
    What radar boards are on the Egyptian MiG-29M2?
    1. Charik
      Charik 24 July 2020 12: 31 New
      0
      http://bastion-karpenko.ru/mig-29m2/
    2. Charik
      Charik 24 July 2020 20: 01 New
      0
      Did you read about 29m2 prom? It turns out that they can use PRR too - I learned for the first time
  • Pavel57
    Pavel57 24 July 2020 11: 24 New
    +1
    Better to start using the MiG-29, they have already been mastered.
  • To be or not to be
    To be or not to be 24 July 2020 11: 43 New
    0
    If Egypt goes, then the Turks and barmale will not be served ..
  • Sailor
    Sailor 24 July 2020 11: 56 New
    +1
    The main thing is that Algeria does not fit in, and the Turks do not really climb, it will be inconvenient for her.
  • cniza
    cniza 24 July 2020 12: 16 New
    +4
    If, nevertheless, Egypt uses the Su-35 in Libya, then Libyan militants from the formations fighting on the side of the PNS will not be able to resist these aircraft. All hope will be in Turkey, which, by the way, is already armed with the S-400 air defense system, also of Russian production. Publicist Basel Haj Jasem, in his article in the Daily Sabah, has already made a proposal to transfer anti-aircraft missile systems to North Africa.


    It seems that everyone is crazy ...
    1. Alex777
      Alex777 26 July 2020 17: 53 New
      0
      It seems that everyone is crazy ...

      Erdogan he is so ...
  • Charik
    Charik 24 July 2020 12: 17 New
    0
    Have they already sent it or are they still flying here in the central part of Russia?
  • Charik
    Charik 24 July 2020 12: 24 New
    0
    in a previous article about these 35s, they wrote that they also purchased asp for them immediately in the kit, I wonder what toys the Egyptians took
  • Hydrography Bay Golden Horn
    Hydrography Bay Golden Horn 24 July 2020 12: 53 New
    -5
    That would be interesting
    And in fact, Mirage-2000 and Rafal will shoot everyone down there.
  • mehan
    mehan 24 July 2020 12: 57 New
    0
    The author paints a picture of a full-scale war, with the Egyptian-Turkish front on the south-north, or west-east line.
    Trenches across the desert, tank wedges, Carpet bombing ... first the sand of the Line, and then one another ...
    Dreamy. Bloody.

    Who will let them, vascheto? Unleash a full-scale war, with an aviation and naval component? In Middle-earth?
    Shik, on the phone, and they will calm down. They will fight "under the carpet."
    If they don't, they'll put it in a corner. A naval blockade (you have enough strength, do not hesitate), and a no-fly zone.
    By the way, about 35x. Will not let Sisi go there new igruhi. And the pilots are not ready, and it's a pity for the trinkets. They will shoot down. Everyone gets knocked down.
    1. Charik
      Charik 24 July 2020 20: 27 New
      0
      yes, just Ukraine boats were laid - the whole Mediterranean is thunderstorm
      1. The comment was deleted.
        1. The comment was deleted.
  • nikvic46
    nikvic46 25 July 2020 06: 51 New
    +2
    Israel is rubbing its hands. Its two adversaries will fight each other. But seriously, it is high time for Egypt to emerge as a major player in the Middle East.
  • Sancho_SP
    Sancho_SP 25 July 2020 22: 16 New
    0
    What is needed is the will to fight, not the airplanes of new models.
    1. Lara Croft
      Lara Croft 26 July 2020 14: 22 New
      -1
      Quote: Sancho_SP
      What is needed is the will to fight, not the airplanes of new models.

      During all the Arab-Israeli wars, the Arabs had the will to win and
      Quote: Sancho_SP
      airplanes of new models
      and the Israeli Jews won ..
      I propose to google the combat strength of the Air Force of the Arab Republic of Egypt and Turkey and the number of raids by their pilots ...
      1. Sancho_SP
        Sancho_SP 26 July 2020 14: 37 New
        0
        I guess it was such a will that the Jews always won. They are still bombing something in Syria quite calmly.
        1. Lara Croft
          Lara Croft 26 July 2020 14: 41 New
          0
          Quote: Sancho_SP
          I guess it was such a will that the Jews always won. They are still bombing something in Syria quite calmly.

          This suits us so far (in the 82nd from the fire of Soviet air defense systems, fireballs were falling from the sky), we are there to control the Eastern Mediterranean, and not to participate in the showdown between the IDF and about the Iranian forces in the SAR ...
          1. Sancho_SP
            Sancho_SP 26 July 2020 16: 27 New
            0
            Well, then the existence of the State of Israel suited us, it turns out)
            1. Lara Croft
              Lara Croft 26 July 2020 16: 29 New
              +1
              Quote: Sancho_SP
              Well, then the existence of the State of Israel suited us, it turns out)

              We are its creators, even though the Israeli Jews have long forgotten about it ... sad
              1. Sancho_SP
                Sancho_SP 26 July 2020 16: 58 New
                0
                And then the Arabs were armed to fight with him. It was a good time! (S)
                1. Lara Croft
                  Lara Croft 26 July 2020 17: 24 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Sancho_SP
                  And then the Arabs were armed to fight with him. It was a good time! (S)

                  And then, when the Union was gone, the Arabs began to shout that we were badly and armed with the wrong, otherwise they would have shown the Israeli Jews ...
                  Therefore, Israeli Jews calmly fly over the SAR destroying l / s and military facilities of the state that a couple of decades ago called us "Little Shaitan", the Syrians should be glad that they did not ... us....
                  The Russian Federation agrees and supports the "Turkish Sultan" in the revival of the Ottoman Empire, since we still know that when the states create Kurdistan, Turkey will shrink within its borders, in favor of the Kurds ....
                  In Libya, we also have nothing to "drag chestnuts out of the fire" for the EU and the United States, tk. with the payment of the Soviet debt comrade. Gaddafi sent us back to the "XNUMXs" and began to draw closer to the "Empireists" ....
  • Shadow shooter
    Shadow shooter 27 July 2020 05: 20 New
    0
    if Algeria fits the PNS, then we are waiting for a duel su30 against su35 fellow