Military Review

Transnistrian conflict: between an over and a frozen war


An agreement on the principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in Transnistria was signed in Moscow almost three decades ago, on July 21, 1992. Is it possible today, after such a long time, to consider this local war the property of stories? Or, in this case, we should only talk about a hotbed of confrontation frozen for a while, in which hostilities may flare up with renewed vigor under certain circumstances?

Alas, as practice shows today, namely the tragic example of a sudden aggravation of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the coals of interethnic conflicts and territorial disputes generated by the collapse of the USSR are capable of flaring up with renewed vigor, no matter how much time passes after the first shots were fired and the first blood. The global origins of the troubles of different peoples lie in the same time and on the same plane - the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There is one more general point: the role of Russia as a state that for many years has kept the opposing sides from active hostilities. And this is not only about the most active activity of the Russian Federation on the diplomatic front, aimed at ending both conflicts. In the case of the PMR, this is also the direct presence on its territory of a peacekeeping contingent consisting of servicemen of our army. In the version of the confrontation between Yerevan and Baku, this is an active military-political support provided to Armenia by Moscow both directly and through the structures of the CSTO, in which both countries are members.

Nevertheless, as you know, there is nothing eternal in the world: times, governments, geopolitical situation change, and at one point or another someone may have a desire to fan up the smoldering enmity and turn the frozen conflict into a hot one to please their interests. This option is quite possible with regard to Transnistria. It is not without reason that for many years now certain political forces in this country, who speak of their pro-European orientation, are actually striving to absorb Moldova by Romania and tirelessly insist on the need to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from the territory of the unrecognized republic.

It is not difficult to predict what the implementation of such claims, which are unambiguously aimed at a new destabilization of the situation in this region, may lead. Sooner or later (probably soon) the situation may return to 1992, bloody clashes, shelling, deaths of civilians and large-scale military clashes. In particular, the likelihood of just such a development of events increases the ever-growing desire of Ukraine, the nearest neighbor of the PMR and Moldova, to intervene in this conflict not in the role of a peacemaker.

Kiev, at the suggestion of its own overseas curators, is eager to turn Pridnestrovie into another springboard for confrontation with Moscow, into another hot spot that brings her a headache. The freshest news in this regard - the negotiations that took place between the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasily Bodnar and the Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova Dumitru Sokolan, during which, as the official statement says,

"The parties confirmed the need for the withdrawal of Russian troops located on the territory of the so-called PMR."

It is also no coincidence that the leading role in the current political crisis unfolding in Chisinau is played by the participants of the 1992 hostilities in Transnistria (from the Moldovan side). For some reason, in addition to the requirements of a social nature, they also put forward ideas on the elimination of the Transnistrian checkpoints in the security zone between the conflicting parties. They are seeking the resignation of not only the country's government and the speaker of the local parliament, but also the removal of the “pro-Russian” president Igor Dodon from power.

To our great regret, Moldova and political stability are two completely incompatible concepts, at least for a long time. The alliance of completely different parties achieved after the last elections, united in the fight against the dominance of the local oligarch Plahotniuc's henchmen, disintegrated as expected quickly, burying at least some unanimity in the legislature. A vote of no confidence in the next government was submitted to the Moldovan parliament today. Nobody knows how deep the current crisis may become.

At the moment, in fact, the only obstacle on the way of a sharp aggravation of relations between Chisinau, both with Moscow and with Tiraspol, is the position of the current head of state. However, should Igor Dodon and his supporters be removed from the real levers of power (and before the implementation of such a scenario, half a step was left more than once), and then events in Transnistria may take the most unpredictable turn. The bitter lesson that any war is much easier to ignite than to extinguish remains undiscovered by many.
Photos used:
Wikipedia / Armed conflict in Transnistria
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  1. Lipchanin
    Lipchanin 23 July 2020 15: 12 New
    "The parties confirmed the need for the withdrawal of Russian troops located on the territory of the so-called PMR."

    Well try to output
    Some "proud" lovers of "Borjomi" took a chance on their anus.
    In addition to the late Swan, we have the Kingdom of Heaven for him, we also have generals
    1. Livonetc
      Livonetc 23 July 2020 15: 25 New
      The transit to Transnistria through the ruin was stopped in the 15th year.
      Then General Yakupov said that the supply would be carried out by air.
      And he added that if problems arise with transit, this will lead to an aggravation of the conflict.
      In fact, he transparently hinted at retaliatory military solutions.
      1. Lipchanin
        Lipchanin 23 July 2020 15: 44 New
        Quote: Livonetc
        In fact, he transparently hinted at retaliatory military solutions.

        And that's the only way to talk to them.
        Swan did not choose expressions and spoke in plain text
        1. Lara Croft
          Lara Croft 23 July 2020 20: 31 New
          Quote: Lipchanin
          Quote: Livonetc
          In fact, he transparently hinted at retaliatory military solutions.

          And that's the only way to talk to them.
          Swan did not choose expressions and spoke in plain text

          This is because behind him there was an MSD with reinforcement units and a pro-Russian Ukraine that was inclined towards this conflict ...
          And now there are two MSBs with latano-transfusion equipment, staffed mainly by local residents from the PMR with Russian citizenship ...
          In the end, no one forced the Russian Federation to sign and ratify the Istanbul Agreements, incl. on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova (the TMR is not recognized by the Russian Federation itself) ...
    2. Vicontas
      Vicontas 23 July 2020 20: 47 New
      If Pridnestrovie is united with Moldova, Chisinau will definitely not go to the Romanians - the population will not give it! In Moldova itself, pro-Romanians have no more than 20% of supporters and cannot break through to power, but many residents have a Romanian passport in order to travel to earn money in Europe - in the 90s, the industry based on Soviet (Russian) equipment was destroyed by order of the EU and Romania. to break all ties with Russia! But about half of the population (along with the pro-Romanians) drowns for Europe - they earn money and send them home. The other half - for the connection with Russia. If you add Pridnestrovians, who are definitely for Russia, then there will be more for an alliance with Russia ! They are very much afraid of this in Bucharest and they are already saying that it is possible "to enter Romania without Transnistria"! The top of Pridnestrovie is also afraid of unification - they have established good business with Ukraine and with the former "steering" of Moldova, the oligarch Plahotniuc, who bought electricity from the Pridnestrovskaya GRES through a laying company and made a profit by selling to his population. Plahotnyuk was also a business partner of Poroshenko. to him by giving away from his territory a competitor Plahotniuc, who was hiding in Ukraine when Plahotniuc took the bank away from him and wanted to arrest him.
      1. And Makarov
        And Makarov 24 July 2020 07: 31 New
        Quote: Vicontas
        about half of the population (together with the pro-Romanians) drowns for Europe ... The other half is for the connection with Russia. If you add the Pridnestrovians, who are definitely for Russia, then there will be more

        Or maybe it will follow the example of "Ukraine and Donbass", only "Donbass" in this case does not border on Russia, but on Ukraine. With all the ensuing consequences.
  2. Vlad T
    Vlad T 23 July 2020 15: 26 New
    An unresolved conflict will always resume, this is an axiom ... Regarding the policy of the Russian Federation, it seems that in the fat years, when the price of oil climbed up, the main occupation of those in power was the plundering of billions that fell from the sky. And all political problems are left to chance - what kind of policy, when billions can be robbed without problems and stash in offshores and other London ... spectacles like the defense of Ossetia, the annexation of Crimea, but a complete and responsible strategy has not been seen until now, because the Donbass smolders, Transnistria will burn ...
  3. cniza
    cniza 23 July 2020 15: 32 New
    The bitter lesson that any war is much easier to ignite than to extinguish remains undiscovered by many.

    And for some, war is a business, but in this case, the political degree determines everything.
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 23 July 2020 20: 05 New
      Yes. And there are still enough stokers who decided to bask on these "coals" ...
      1. cniza
        cniza 23 July 2020 20: 59 New
        Not just a lot, but not all can make their way to this trough ...
  4. Normal ok
    Normal ok 23 July 2020 15: 50 New
    Reading the article I remembered Lenin's statement about the Decembrists: "They are terribly far from the people." In this case, the author is far from reality. In pursuit of cheap popularity, the author publishes an outright lie. Point by point: of all the frozen conflicts on the territory of the former USSR, this one is the most successfully frozen)). Transnistrian business is very successfully integrated into the Moldavian / Pridnesirovsko / Ukrainian reality. Active trading is in progress. 2) Ukraine will not pull two conflicts at the same time. She absolutely does not need this. And human ties are very developed here. People go back and forth, work, move to permanent residence. I live nearby, so I know it personally (I myself have traveled to Tiraspol more than once). Cars with Pridnestrovian numbers in Odessa are just a shaft (especially on weekends, near Metro or Zatoka). So, confrontation in this area will simply ditch Zelensky's rating. 3) Moldavian nationalists currently do not play any significant role in Moldova.
    Etc. etc.
    1. Cristall
      Cristall 23 July 2020 22: 36 New
      Quote: Normal ok
      In this case, the author is far from reality. In pursuit of cheap popularity, the author publishes an outright lie.

      but what ... no one in the Russian Federation especially monitors their offspring.
      They only remember them from time to time.
      At this moment, the oldest brainchild was awarded an alert article (well, others simply will not survive, and why not in a paradigm)
      The PMR is generally a brainchild of Ukrainian nationalists (who are fighting together with the Russians, against the Moldovans, who do not know that the opposite will happen in Donbass).
      The blockade of the PMR, lack of prospects, the business of laying and the presence of several passports to live with the constantly leaving youth.
      Russians who are needed only at a certain moment are remembered extremely rarely. Although there are many Russian passport holders there. A constant example is that the distribution of Russian passports does not guarantee anything.
      The same small Hungary and Bulgaria, fiercely defend not even the passport holders, but simply ethnic ones in foreign territory.
  5. steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 July 2020 16: 32 New
    Why do we need such politicians who cannot resolve issues? In order for something to change, you need to change something! Donbass is the second Transnistria! Over the 20 years of Putin's rule, the number of $ -billionaires has grown almost 14 times, from 8 in 2000 to 110 in 2019. And you want something to change?
  6. 7,62h54
    7,62h54 23 July 2020 16: 34 New
    Moldovans become more or less sane once a year when it is time to harvest and sell the crop. The president of the republic looks into the eyes, rubs his cheek against his leg, if only Putin gave the go-ahead for the purchase of wine and fruit. And as they say, Gerasim - I agree to everything. But as soon as he gets his own, then a wonderful metamorphosis occurs, and moreover, amnesia also attacks. Nothing has changed for almost 30 years.
    1. Captivity
      Captivity 23 July 2020 22: 23 New
      Export of Moldova to Russia in 2017 amounted to 10% and is decreasing every year.
  7. Drugov
    Drugov 23 July 2020 20: 44 New
    All these incomplete games will definitely be played out. Opponents are waiting for an opportunity to make their move.
  8. Shadow041
    Shadow041 24 July 2020 15: 54 New
    I agree with the author. The conflict is temporarily frozen and it will be resolved only when some side achieves a solution to the issue in its favor, and this is possible only by military means.
  9. DeKo
    DeKo 27 July 2020 08: 06 New
    The Ukrainians and Moldovans, having muddied their re-Evolutsya, joyfully destroyed everything and rode off as slaves to Europe