Military Review

Why the president of Egypt threatens the Libyan PNS: on the situation in Libya

19

Neighboring Egypt may enter the war in Libya. President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi demanded that the Government of National Accord Faiz Saraj stop the attack on Sirte and Al-Joufra.


Why al-Sisi threatens the Libyan PNS


Recently, the forces of Faiz Saraj have managed to gain a number of decisive victories over the Libyan national army of Khalifa Haftar. These victories, which actually made it possible to clear Tripolitania from the forces of the LNA, were possible thanks to the strong support that the PNS receives from Turkey. Unmanned aerial vehicles, military equipment, "cannon fodder" in the form of fighters from the Syrian Idlib became a significant help to the PNS troops. However, the success of the PNS in May-June 2020. The countries supporting Haftar were seriously alarmed, and first of all, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

The main task of the Arab regional powers is to prevent the strengthening of the influence of Turkey operating in North Africa, including Egypt and Libya, through the support of the Muslim Brotherhood (a banned organization). The Libyan national army of Khalifa Haftar is currently regarded as the only powerful armed force in the country capable of hampering the assertion of power by the Tripolitan government associated with Turkey.

Seeing that it was becoming increasingly difficult for Haftar’s troops to resist the onslaught of Saraj’s army, supported by Turkey, Field Marshal’s patrons took extreme measures: their readiness to intervene in the situation in Libya, as VO has already reported, said Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.

This threat should be taken very carefully, because Egypt has the largest armed forces in the Arab world. Meanwhile, a member of the Presidential Council of Libya, Mohamed Amari Zayed, has already called the statement by the Egyptian president a de facto declaration of war. Given that counting on one's own strengths in the confrontation with Cairo Tripoli is very stupid, after the start of the conflict with Egypt, the situation of Sarajah will completely depend on Turkey.

Turkey vs Egypt: war is undesirable for both countries


For Turkey, confronting the Egyptians in Libya can be all the more difficult because Turkey does not have a direct land border with Libya, but Egypt does. And Cairo can throw into Libya almost all of its numerous land army, which Turkey can never do. There will be hope only for the constant supply of weapons and mercenaries to the forces of the LNA, but then hostilities will unfold between Egyptian and Turkish fleets in the Mediterranean, which the Alliance is unlikely to allow.


So pro-Turkish forces see the balance of power in Libya


A Russian flag is marked on the map of pro-Turkish formations - places where PMCs from the Russian Federation are allegedly present.

Now Turkey, supporting Sarajah, is insisting on surrendering to the troops of the PNS Sirte and Al-Jufra. But Haftar refuses to surrender Sirte, and Saraj and his supporting Ankara are not ready to go for a truce. Moreover, Tripoli cannot arrange it: the Egyptian president demands not only to retreat from Al-Jufra and Sirte, but also to disarm most of the PNS formations.

It is possible that if the storming of Sirte begins, Egypt will send its troops into Libya. Another question is how decisive Al-Sisi will be in his actions in the neighboring state: the invasion may be limited to creating a buffer zone on the Libyan-Egyptian border, according to the model tested by Turkey in Syrian Idlib. The Egyptians can also proceed through the territories controlled by Haftar’s troops to the border with the zones of control of Saraj and prevent the latter from moving east to Cyrenaica, which, due to its geographical position, Egypt considers to be its sphere of influence.

If we talk about the worst case scenario, then Turkey will have no choice but to enter into a large-scale war in North Africa. After all, the Egyptian army will instantly destroy the troops of Saraj and under the control of opponents of Turkey will be almost the entire territory of Libya. Ankara does not want to allow this, but Turkey is clearly not ready for a war with Egypt. The waryness of France, the FRG, and Italy, which made a demand for an immediate cessation of foreign intervention in the Libyan conflict, is understandable.

France is dissatisfied with Turkish President Recep Erdogan, but given that Turkey is a member of NATO, it is extremely convenient for French President Emmanuel Macron to raise the issue of the need to reformat the entire defense and security system in Europe. After all, the French leader is known for his negative attitude towards NATO and frequent statements about the desirability of creating a separate European military bloc. Turkey will no longer have a place in this military alliance of the European Union.
Author:
Photos used:
Twitter / Egypt Defense Review, tarihpolitika
19 comments
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 26 June 2020 16: 13 New
    +2
    There is only one conclusion: Libya does not need an independent Libya. A snake ball of interests of different countries. Not one snake will prevent another snake from prevailing.
    1. NIKN
      NIKN 26 June 2020 16: 55 New
      +4
      Quote: parusnik
      There is only one conclusion: Libya does not need an independent Libya. A snake ball of interests of different countries. Not one snake will prevent another snake from prevailing.

      And this is so ..., Once again, it is clear that the people themselves are not interested in anyone. There is simply a blatant plunder, and all the United Nations and other organizations created supposedly for good purposes are just a weapon. recourse
      1. alone
        alone 26 June 2020 20: 10 New
        +7
        Quote: NIKNN
        Once again, it is clear that the people themselves are not interested in anyone.

        Nobody ever thinks about the people ..
  2. alone
    alone 26 June 2020 16: 14 New
    +7
    Egypt is not easy now .. In the Sinai, the Igilovites are still sitting, who from time to time beat the government troops from the ambush, Ethiopia, which with its dam practically endangered the entire Egyptian economy, which is highly dependent on the water level in the Nile .. An uneasy relationship with Sudan..And now also Libya, where along with Libya it will be necessary to fight with Turkey, with Qatar .. It is possible that if Egypt enters Libya, it will also face Tunisia and Algeria, which are also not so hot with Egypt .. And Algeria has the most powerful air force in Africa ..
    Hoping for the French is somehow unreasonable .. And just the United States began intensive negotiations with the PNS ... The Commander of the US troops in Africa became frequent there.
    So it’s very difficult to foresee something ...
    1. Gargantua
      Gargantua 26 June 2020 17: 39 New
      +7
      You may not believe it, but it is beneficial for Russia if a large batch with the participation of Egypt, Turkey and Algeria begins in Libya. Moreover, if such a conflict begins, a paradoxical situation will arise, Russia will be able to support all parties to the conflict at the same time in exchange for its conditions, greatly strengthening its influence in North Africa and the world as a whole.
      1. Hyperborean
        Hyperborean 27 June 2020 21: 19 New
        0
        Right to 100500%. This is the war most beneficial for Russia. And it’s profitable in everything: economically, politically and socially .. If it starts, then one can only hope that it will last as long as possible. Moreover, it is desirable that there is no clear winner at the end of the conflict ..
    2. bayard
      bayard 26 June 2020 18: 26 New
      0
      Quote: lonely
      Algeria has the most powerful air force in Africa ..

      Quote: lonely
      Hoping for the French is somehow unreasonable

      Egypt has already begun to receive 4 ++ Su-35 heavy fighters from Russia. And even earlier, MiG-29M2 fighters and S-300VE air defense systems were delivered to Egypt.
      Splitting and then abolishing NATO amid the riots, the collapse, and possibly the US civil war, is the cherished dream of the "old Europeans", and to create a united EU force. smile And Turkey will definitely not be in this community and military bloc. So the defeat of the Turkish expeditionary force in Libya is beneficial not only to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, SA, France, etc., but also to many in old Europe.
      Turkey will tear harem pants on Libyan-Iraqi-Qatari-Syrian twine. And Russia will have absolutely nothing to do with this next catastrophe of Turkish statehood - Arabs and Europeans will do everything. And Russia will simply trade and supply weapons. yes
  3. knn54
    knn54 26 June 2020 16: 16 New
    +5
    War for peace.
    1. tech3030
      tech3030 26 June 2020 16: 22 New
      +3
      A paradox, but it is.
  4. Poetry
    Poetry 26 June 2020 16: 26 New
    +2
    The spiders in the spider jar began to eat each other.
  5. prior
    prior 26 June 2020 16: 35 New
    +2
    Europe kindled a "fire" in Libya. Now all the little hands are pulling to warm up.
    And what did these, if I may say so, "civilized" Europeans think ?!
    Cannibals, as cannibals are.
    It would be divine if the same boomerang massacre returned to Italy, France and other countries that participated in the aggression against Gaddafi.
  6. Pavel57
    Pavel57 26 June 2020 18: 06 New
    +1
    Everyone needs a small victorious war.
  7. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 26 June 2020 18: 33 New
    -1
    So pro-Turkish forces see the balance of power in Libya
    Indelicate question. repeat Where are the flags of Turkey? There is none of them. So maybe she shut up! angry
  8. iouris
    iouris 26 June 2020 19: 10 New
    -1
    Most likely, NATO not only will not "intervene" in the conflict between the Turks and the Egyptians, but, most likely, is behind Egypt's back. It is noteworthy that the identity of the planes attacking Turkish forces in Libya has not yet been "established." This is pretty revealing.
  9. alone
    alone 26 June 2020 20: 08 New
    +2
    Quote: bayard
    And Turkey will definitely not be in this community and military bloc

    Without a second army, NATO has nothing to do with it .. NATO also knows that .. Turkey is the southern border of NATO .. ​​If Turkey is thrown out of NATO, the Black Sea, the borders of Transcaucasia are lost, and a final bold cross will be put on all NATO plans in this direction. ..I’m still silent about the large base in Incirlik .. Do you think that they don’t understand this at the NATO General Staff?
    1. iouris
      iouris 26 June 2020 23: 22 New
      -1
      Quote: lonely
      Turkey is the southern boundary of NATO ..

      Milestone on the way of what? NATO is an aggressive bloc (and this is not a slogan, the whole history of NATO indicates this).
    2. KURT330
      KURT330 27 June 2020 11: 21 New
      0
      He himself knows everything perfectly, just scribbles his wet dreams))
      He just wants to wink
  10. VyacheSeymour
    VyacheSeymour 27 June 2020 15: 46 New
    0
    And Cairo can throw into Libya almost all of its numerous land army, which Turkey can never do.

    Straight after all the whole army ???? ...- Nonsense !!! Only in Egypt itself is order, and the regime is supported by the army! But there are also external threats ... Yes, and the Muslim Brothers have not gone anywhere, and if there were no army, the fate of Al-Sisi would be sad ... And add here a significant part of the population (even without the Muslim Brotherhood), subject to the traditional influence of the Turks , - the picture for Egypt looms
    not rainbow ...

    After all, the Egyptian army will instantly destroy the troops of Saraj and under the control of opponents of Turkey will be almost the entire territory of Libya.

    What !!! -Arb coalition in Ymen also thought so ..- yes, the Hussites were not aware of this ...
  11. APASUS
    APASUS 27 June 2020 23: 32 New
    0
    First of all, Europe does not want another leap of refugees from Libya and this worries Macron. Well, they can’t afford to stay away from the division of oil wealth of the country, because it was not for nothing that they overthrew Gaddafi. Egypt needs an enemy to consolidate the society around the government and here many people need an enemy. Strangely enough, but everything goes to a global conflict