Military Review

The price of oil has gone down again, experts are getting involved and trying to clarify the situation

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The price of oil has gone down again, experts are getting involved and trying to clarify the situation

Oil again went down in price. And this means that the time has come for expert analysts who are ready to explain any dynamics of “black gold”. Even if this dynamics changes during the day to the opposite, they will also find a reason.


So, oil, which for several days was trading at more than 43 dollars per barrel (Brent brand), today again “lost its conscience” and fell below 41,5.

At the moment, another correction has occurred, and the “barrel” of oil of the mentioned brand is being traded even in a "lower" range: 41-41,3 dollars.



So what do experts say about this?

For example, representatives of the brokerage service from PVM explain the return of oil to fall for two reasons. First: waiting for the second wave of coronavirus. Second: publication of stock growth data.

It is noted that once again the American WTI brand fell in price more than others - by 2% per day.

In the brokerage service:

The growing number of cases of coronavirus in the USA, Latin America, India and again in China is making investors nervous. If the second wave of coronavirus comes against the background of news of increased oil reserves, this will disrupt the barely emerging recovery of the world economy.

Experts in the US note that if the world expects a new blow to the crisis, then this will be the first such test in several decades. Typically, the crisis did not happen double, but now there are such risks, and it is claimed that the probability is high enough. The exact numbers of this probability, however, are not spoken of.

The European Central Bank says that even if there is no second wave of crisis against the background of a hypothetical second wave of infection, the eurozone will require "a lot of time to restore pre-crisis indicators."

But, according to statistics, there are still reasons for optimism. For example, oil market experts consider optimism a decrease in “free” gasoline reserves in the USA as a reason for optimism. This suggests that economic activity in North America is still recovering along with the demand for motor fuel. Experts believe that this trend "could spread to other regions of the world", if, again, the second wave of the pandemic does not come.
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  1. Smirnoff
    Smirnoff 24 June 2020 18: 02
    -1
    Also news to me. Man-made process
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 24 June 2020 18: 09
      +5
      Quote: Smirnoff
      Also news to me. Man-made process

      In our country? Here, yes, the process is man-made, but in the situation with oil, it is simply explainable. The world economy has sunk and seriously, demand has fallen, and reserves are substantial, and oil is falling in price. And at our gas stations, as soon as the oil went up a little, gasoline immediately went up by 20 kopecks .. I’m sure that the price of gasoline will not go down ..
      1. Smirnoff
        Smirnoff 24 June 2020 18: 11
        +1
        Quote: Svarog
        In our country? Yes, the process is man-made

        Both in our country and beyond
        1. Snail N9
          Snail N9 24 June 2020 18: 44
          0
          However, the "zeroed" one already last week said that, they say, the Russian economy has already recovered from the "covid blow" .... though just now he said the opposite, that it fell by so many%, though this is not from covid and the actions of the authorities, but due to "global factors" beyond control .... that is, well, so in the whole world .... and in Russia everything is even a little better ... even a parade here .... Only this is what will happen from July 1, except for zeroing, they do not sound ashamed. But what will happen:
          Firstly, we expect an increase in housing and communal services tariffs, which many were counting on "freezing". Each region will have its own changes and, possibly, the authorities of some entities will take into account the economic problems of citizens caused by the coronavirus. Nevertheless, it is already known that in St. Petersburg tariffs will increase by an average of 3,3%. And this, as the governor of the city, Alexander Beglov, admitted, “hits the pocket”. But from his recognition is not easier. The authorities will not stop beating our kramanas
          Another unpleasant innovation awaits both current and potential motorists - the procedure for passing a medical examination to obtain or extend the validity of a driver’s license will change, as the Free Press has already written about. Now, to get a medical certificate, you will have to take an analysis to detect chronic alcohol consumption. Moreover, these certificates will be paid - an average of 6-8 thousand rubles. True, given the autumn hype in drug dispensaries and criticism of President Vladimir Putin, the Ministry of Health softened the draft order by making the test optional - the decision is made by a psychiatrist-narcologist, and drivers will only be tested for alcohol. There is a real possibility of collusion with clinics that will conduct these tests with narcologists who will send clients to them.
          The marking of certain goods is gaining momentum and, now, from July 1, the obligatory marking of shoes, tobacco and medicines starts. The latter is of particular concern, because it is no secret that medicines are constantly getting more expensive, and they are unlikely to want to take on additional costs that manufacturers will now have to shell out. So the care of the authorities about the health of Russians will cost citizens not cheap ..

          And so yes, everything is under control, everything is developing in the right direction and there is nothing "terrible". With the parade, dear visitors IN!
          1. New Year day
            New Year day 24 June 2020 20: 33
            +7
            Quote: Snail N9
            However, the "zeroed" one already last week expressed that the Russian economy had already recovered.

            last week recovered, this week, again staggered. And so every week: here and there laughing
            I do not believe him for 10 years
          2. Paranoid50
            Paranoid50 24 June 2020 22: 38
            -8
            Quote: Snail N9
            There is nothing wrong".

            Well, no ... Talking mollusks with a claim is a clear anomaly. yes Damn it, judging by the number, eight more of the same ones are rummaging around somewhere ... fellow wassat
      2. knn54
        knn54 24 June 2020 18: 36
        0
        Since the beginning of June, Russian Urals oil has risen in price in Europe by more than $ 7, up to $ 45-46 per barrel.
        I think that the price of oil will be reduced so that the price of gasoline falls before the US elections, which will give additional points to Donald Trump.
        1. RUSS
          RUSS 24 June 2020 23: 13
          +2
          Quote: knn54
          I think that the price of oil will be reduced so that the price of gasoline falls before the US elections, which will give additional points to Donald Trump.

          The average retail price for gasoline of the best-selling brand (AI-87) in the United States is $ 2,19 per gallon (3,785 liters), reaching the lowest level since December 2016.
      3. businessv
        businessv 24 June 2020 20: 07
        +4
        Quote: Svarog
        And at our gas stations, as soon as the oil went up a little, gasoline immediately went up by 20 kopecks .. I'm sure that the price of gasoline will not go down ..

        Well, remember the saying? In our country gasoline rises in price in two cases - when the price of oil rises and when the price of it falls!
      4. Tusv
        Tusv 24 June 2020 21: 56
        0
        Quote: Svarog
        I am sure that the price of gasoline will not go down ..

        Ofigel himself that Our gasoline has fallen in price. This does not happen in principle, but still. A slight decrease has occurred. But here everything is just in Beijing, martial law with a mutating infection. It will go to the industrial zones of China and Khan throughout the global economy. Spiculi are working on this .. The fact that the new mutant will go all over China? Believe not very
      5. Boris ⁣ Shaver
        Boris ⁣ Shaver 25 June 2020 00: 05
        +4
        Quote: Svarog
        I am sure that the price of gasoline will not go down

        There is a popular sign: if the elections were held, then gasoline will rise in price.
      6. Zoldat_A
        Zoldat_A 25 June 2020 06: 51
        +3
        Quote: Svarog
        In our country?

        The price of oil is rising - in Russia gasoline is getting more expensive. The price of oil is falling - in Russia gasoline is getting more expensive ...
        Maybe it's not the price of oil, but the oil (gasoline) huckster?
        Maybe it's time to shoot?
    2. Terenin
      Terenin 24 June 2020 18: 34
      0
      the time has come for expert analysts ready to explain any dynamics
      during the day to the opposite, they will also find a reason.
      So I’m guessing which of them is in the first place, and which is in second place according to forecasts and promises, expert analysts or deputies? what
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 24 June 2020 20: 44
        +8
        Quote: Terenin
        So I’m guessing which of them is in the first place, and which is in second place according to forecasts and promises, expert analysts or deputies?

        Who cares? Birds of a feather!
    3. Deniska999
      Deniska999 24 June 2020 18: 55
      +8
      VO slid down, for each drop in oil, a new article is being rolled out by several percent. Meaning?
      1. dvina71
        dvina71 24 June 2020 19: 06
        -1
        Quote: Deniska999
        Meaning?

        Well, somehow you need to gossip about Putin ..
        1. Deniska999
          Deniska999 24 June 2020 20: 46
          +3
          With him, everything is already clear.
      2. New Year day
        New Year day 24 June 2020 20: 37
        +4
        Quote: Deniska999
        VO slid down, for each drop in oil, a new article is being rolled out by several percent. Meaning?

        don’t understand the secret meaning, the global issue is being resolved - does our economy depend on oil prices? laughing Depending on its price, 2 times a week back and forth, not joking battles of opponents unfolded, but, since everyone was tired of it because of its volatility, there was no discussion request
  2. mag nit
    mag nit 24 June 2020 18: 11
    11
    The jumps in oil prices will not affect the increase in gas prices in Russia. Stability.
    1. Malyuta
      Malyuta 24 June 2020 18: 45
      +3
      Quote: mag nit
      The jumps in oil prices will not affect the increase in gas prices in Russia. Stability.

      As, however, they will not affect the negative growth of the economy and a breakthrough into a breakthrough without buildup.
    2. dvina71
      dvina71 24 June 2020 19: 06
      +1
      Quote: mag nit
      will not affect the increase in gas prices in Russia

      Of course .. the cost of oil in the cost of fuel is 5% ...
      1. AU Ivanov.
        AU Ivanov. 24 June 2020 19: 42
        -2
        And the rest is taxes and excise taxes.
        1. dvina71
          dvina71 24 June 2020 19: 54
          0
          Quote: AS Ivanov.
          taxes and excise taxes.

          Logistics, processing ..
  3. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 24 June 2020 18: 12
    +8
    When there is a hundred "paper oil" on the market !!! times more than the real one - what could be the driving factor of the price?
    Different groups of "candy wrappers" holders are trying to "cheat" each other, using the trillions that the FRS has poured into the "free market" ... The price can be anything, even negative, which has already happened ... Moreover, robots trade, producing a monstrous amount of sales ... per minute. Who programmed them and how? Who can say that?
    1. sg7s
      sg7s 24 June 2020 22: 51
      0
      Robots are normal (high-frequency trading on the market, especially with high volatility, too). I want to convey for a long time - speculation is an integral part of capitalism, and since we socialized, we need to take this as a PART of life ... Every dishwasher in Oklahoma trades on the stock exchange (sher, forex, derivatives), we have grandmothers in the mail until the last received a pension ...
      How do robots program? In different ways, but if you program a model with a yield of, say, 10% (per month) - less than 10 oyro do not bargain with the buyer ...
      1. Mountain shooter
        Mountain shooter 24 June 2020 22: 55
        0
        Quote: sg7s
        , and since we socialized proficiency, we must take this as a PART of life ... Every dishwasher in Oklahoma trades on the exchange (sher, forex, derivatives)

        None of my American acquaintances trade on the exchange ... although they are by no means dishwashers. Financial speculations are not shares of enterprises, but secondary instruments - a deeply immoral thing, poker for millions ...
  4. kind
    kind 24 June 2020 18: 27
    +8
    It is necessary to prescribe the price of oil in the constitution laughing
    1. Clear
      Clear 24 June 2020 18: 40
      +7
      Quote: Good
      It is necessary to prescribe the price of oil in the constitution laughing

      - Honey, throw pineapples into borscht?
      - Look at the amendments to the constitution, you never know ... smile
    2. New Year day
      New Year day 24 June 2020 20: 41
      +3
      Quote: Good
      It is necessary to prescribe the price of oil in the constitution

      no, the dollar is better!

      Let oil cost as much as it wants, but for the ruble to be iron! laughing
  5. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin 24 June 2020 18: 48
    +1
    With the logical transition of the world economy, from senseless ersatz pieces of paper to real and physical nishtyak, this point is inevitable, like the collapse of imperialism. laughing
  6. evgen1221
    evgen1221 24 June 2020 19: 12
    +3
    That's the reason for the appearance
    so (a terribly fatal pandemic) coronovirus manifests itself. It seems to me that this whole coven with the pandemic is another soap bubble of speculative activity of stockbrokers and banking tycoons. Arguments for this version. They will make good money on selling oil bought by dumping, but after it has risen in price to the pre-pandemic level. The states have well stocked their bins with real physical oil at a bargain price and now they can pass it off as extracted by shale producers easily, not to mention the simple sale of a petrochemical. Bought or removed from the road large TNCs a lot of competitors, and without straining. We checked the scenario of future economic wars (an ordinary flu mutation plus massive PR exactly minus competitors plus profit).
    1. major147
      major147 24 June 2020 21: 54
      +3
      Quote: evgen1221
      We checked the scenario of future economic wars (an ordinary flu mutation plus massive PR exactly minus competitors plus profit).

      Less than 150 thousand of its citizens ......
      1. evgen1221
        evgen1221 25 June 2020 07: 29
        +1
        From pneumonia and road accident flu is no less dying. And yes, the virus has a mutation of influenza or pneumonia, with more zealous properties, and man-made or not, it doesn’t matter anyway, whoever spread it and they got it.
        1. major147
          major147 25 June 2020 11: 49
          0
          Quote: evgen1221
          From pneumonia and road accident flu is no less dying.

          And to them a plus of 150 thousand ....
  7. rocket757
    rocket757 24 June 2020 19: 45
    0
    Futures were invented, the speculators had a place where "of course."
    In the long run, it all depends on the state of the global economy, and it is inert.
  8. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin 24 June 2020 20: 27
    -1
    For fans of the zombie apocalypse series, there is good news. In the US there are real zombies, though not people, but firms. An example of such a company is Oasis Petroleum. Despite the fact that Oasis Petroleum began drilling in one of the richest oil and gas basins in the country, it was on the verge of bankruptcy and could not earn enough money for five consecutive years to cover its annual borrowing costs.
  9. Egoza
    Egoza 24 June 2020 20: 28
    +2
    Oh, I can't! As there the sailor Shvandya reasoned: "If you flatten your eyes, and then immediately flatten them, the moon is so big ...." That's the explanation of these experts!
  10. forest1
    forest1 24 June 2020 22: 39
    0
    I really liked the author’s claim about the lack of exact figures of probability.
    Tell me, is this likely?
    And how exactly is this likely?
    I don’t know for sure, but I think it’s quite likely for sure. Well, or at least probably quite accurately. Maybe the author makes sense to develop a theory of the accuracy of probability. And at the same time the theory of probability of accuracy
  11. sg7s
    sg7s 24 June 2020 22: 45
    0
    And how can I attach the file .... I need a normal schedule, not this kindergarten ...
  12. sg7s
    sg7s 24 June 2020 22: 55
    +2
    "Experts" -analysts can explain everything (I am telling you this as a trader) ... There is an anecdote - "on the exchange a trader and an analyst are approaching the elevator, Trader-analyst - Well, at least now will you say up or down?"
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 25 June 2020 03: 55
      +3
      To paraphrase Churchill:
      Politician The analyst must be able to predict what will happen tomorrow, in a week, in a month, and in a year. And then explain why this did not happen.
      laughing
  13. koramax81
    koramax81 25 June 2020 23: 20
    0
    I’m wondering, where are those commentators and writers who, after the OPEC + deal, shouted that Russia lost everything, just stood out in vain. Arabs supposedly outplayed?
  14. Connor MacLeod
    Connor MacLeod 26 June 2020 22: 22
    0
    Yes, the Americans intentionally short oil, they want to push Iran into a war with Saudi Arabia. The provocation with Suleimani did not work, they decided to play a new combination, they are putting pressure on them economically. In principle, a new Persian Gulf War would be beneficial to us, the main thing is to move aside in time, so that the Chinese fit into the Persians ...

    At the moment, the Americans are concentrated in the Western Pacific 3 AUG, which if something happens can be transferred to the Gulf region as soon as possible.

    https://news.usni.org/2020/06/22/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-june-15-2020-2