Military Review

Oil prices are rising again, experts are looking for an explanation

21
Oil prices are rising again, experts are looking for an explanation

By the end of the working week, oil prices began to rise rapidly. So, a barrel of Brent crude oil is currently trading in the range of 42,55-42,90 dollars per barrel. In the early morning, its price did not exceed $ 41,7.


Thus, in just a few hours, the price of oil on world markets grew by almost 3%.

Recall that a few days ago, people calling themselves experts explained the drop in oil prices either with new data on its US reserves or with the decision of Saudi Arabia to again raise production volumes and ignore the OPEC + agreements.


What is now the explanation experts are looking for an increase in oil prices to almost $ 43 per barrel?

So, Arthur Berman, a geologist who has devoted 36 years of work in the oil and gas industry, and today advising shale companies, believes that the US shale industry is influencing the situation. According to Berman, in the United States they conducted an audit of oil shale drilling rigs and concluded that their number has decreased by almost 70% since mid-March.

So, if in March this number was 539, then an audit conducted last week showed that now there are only 165 of these plants. According to the American oil expert, these data indicate that in the near future the US will have to increase imports of “black gold ”, otherwise it will be impossible to restore economic performance.

Berman claims that while maintaining the current situation, US oil production could collapse by 50% by next year. This will be the largest reduction in recent years.

According to Arthur (Art) Berman, if you start the percentage of recovery in the number of drilling rigs, then the first production can begin at the restored facilities only after 9-12 months. During this period, according to experts, oil prices may rise. So far, experts do not judge the final marks of such growth.

Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia. This despite the fact that these prices did not go down after oil. During the week, the AI-95 brand went up more than others, showing a record jump in recent years.
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  1. Doccor18
    Doccor18 19 June 2020 12: 53 New
    +4
    experts are looking for an explanation

    They will find, they are paid for it.
    1. Threaded screw
      Threaded screw 19 June 2020 12: 58 New
      +4
      They will find, they are paid for it.
      A good expert is different from a bad one in that it can explain why his predictions did not come true. And the price of oil is highly speculative, shaping its reality.
      1. Tugarin
        Tugarin 19 June 2020 13: 09 New
        +6
        I also remembered about these experts:
        "Analyst traders fall into two categories - those who don’t know what will happen, and those who don’t know that they" don’t know "
      2. venik
        venik 19 June 2020 17: 41 New
        0
        Quote: Threaded Screw
        A good expert is different from a bad one in that it can explain why his predictions did not come true.

        ========
        good There are no words! Some "expressions" !!! good
        PS For almost 15 years he worked as a "financial analyst"! ( request ) drinks
    2. Svarog
      Svarog 19 June 2020 13: 05 New
      +2
      Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia. This despite the fact that these prices did not go down after oil. During the week, the AI-95 brand went up more than others, showing a record jump in recent years.

      This point is more interesting .. prices are down, gas is in place, prices are up gas is also up .. and what will happen after zeroing?
      1. Doccor18
        Doccor18 19 June 2020 13: 09 New
        +4
        and what will happen after zeroing?

        All up!
      2. Stalllker
        Stalllker 19 June 2020 13: 32 New
        +2
        When all of you are nullified, got
  2. Tugarin
    Tugarin 19 June 2020 12: 57 New
    10
    Absolutely man-made process.
  3. Pessimist22
    Pessimist22 19 June 2020 13: 00 New
    +8
    Only on price fluctuations can you earn money to speculators on the stability of the markets you will not earn much.
    1. ZloiEzh
      ZloiEzh 19 June 2020 15: 02 New
      0
      Say this to those who lost all their money on oil price fluctuations when the WTI had a price of -40 dollars per barrel. Speculation is often roulette, especially when those who understand little about how the economy and the market work and people who lose all their savings on speculation are much more likely to go there than those who go minus on market growth.
      1. Pessimist22
        Pessimist22 19 June 2020 17: 21 New
        0
        When I thought about what exchange and financial terms mean, I bought a book of the Higher Education Publishing House called Securities, I read and realized that both the exchange and financial system are a game ... The one who said: What is our life, was right ....
  4. Ravil_Asnafovich
    Ravil_Asnafovich 19 June 2020 13: 00 New
    0
    I can say, "do not expect good for us," they will still rob.
  5. svp67
    svp67 19 June 2020 13: 05 New
    +2
    Oil prices go up again
    The oil industry and our financiers "just some kind of holiday ..."
  6. Roman123567
    Roman123567 19 June 2020 13: 10 New
    +5
    Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia

    This is the only thing that concerns us ..
  7. APASUS
    APASUS 19 June 2020 13: 26 New
    -1
    Shale oil needs to be saved in the USA. Americans press both openly and undercover
    1. Molox
      Molox 19 June 2020 16: 32 New
      -2
      Quote: APASUS
      Shale oil needs to be saved in the USA. Americans press both openly and undercover

      Most likely ... They hoped that the Russian economy would collapse .. But everything turned out to be the other way around.
  8. Free wind
    Free wind 19 June 2020 13: 31 New
    -6
    Hooray!!! because the great !!!! A. Anyway cheers, our great one, he’s not mistaken, he’s so cunning ... well, he’s great. The Americans are right .... out of fear.
  9. Sahalinets
    Sahalinets 19 June 2020 13: 47 New
    0
    Nanais come to the shaman and ask
    - Will the winter be cold or warm? Do you have firewood?
    The shaman thought about it - there wouldn’t be any firewood for anyone, but if they didn’t become cold, they would beat him ...
    - It will be cold winter!
    But then it became interesting to myself. I went to the weather station and asked
    - What will be the winter?
    - Cold!
    - And why?
    - Yes, the Nanai fled for firewood! wink
    With iktsperty the same. They don’t know anything, only their cheeks are inflated.
  10. WIKI
    WIKI 19 June 2020 14: 13 New
    +5
    Sometimes, before commenting on an article, it is useful to read, although with a translator, the original article. Then the intention of the author - commentator becomes clear.
    Berman claims that while maintaining the current situation, US oil production could collapse by 50% by next year.
    In the original: "next year, oil production will decrease by 50%. As a result, US oil production will decline from more than 12,5 million barrels per day at the beginning of this year to less than 8 million barrels per day by mid-2021." The difference in terms of 6 months.
    the first production can begin at the restored facilities only after 9-12 months.
    Original "Between the signal of the price increase and the signed contract for the drilling rig, several months pass. Another 9-12 months go from the launch of the well to the first production." This is about launching new wells. And the author of the article speaks of previously drilled ones. It’s like that, but to kick the fallen enemy.
  11. ZloiEzh
    ZloiEzh 19 June 2020 14: 55 New
    0
    Interestingly, does the author generally understand how the market as a whole and futures in particular work? Maybe I will reveal a secret to someone, but the rise and fall of oil prices is not determined by the real situation at the moment, but by positive or negative news and reports, based on which investors / traders make decisions on their investments. A positive oil report came out - the price went up, the negative news came out - the price fell. Another important point is that the market lives tomorrow and, accordingly, if we have reasonable forecasts that the recession of the world economy is ahead and the number of such forecasts prevails, then the oil price will fall due to the fact that during the recession oil demand drops significantly and vice versa. That is why, the price of oil is so unpredictable and volatile and there are no experts who could unequivocally predict a change in this price (if there were such, they would have already made a huge fortune thanks to the right purchases and sales, based on knowledge of the change in quotations in the future).
  12. 123456789
    123456789 21 June 2020 10: 59 New
    +1
    Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia.

    Tugarin (Mikhail) June 19, 2020 12: 57 + 8

    Absolutely man-made process.

    The invisible hand of the market