Oil prices are rising again, experts are looking for an explanation

By the end of the working week, oil prices began to rise rapidly. So, a barrel of Brent crude oil is currently trading in the range of 42,55-42,90 dollars per barrel. In the early morning, its price did not exceed $ 41,7.

Thus, in just a few hours, the price of oil on world markets grew by almost 3%.

Recall that a few days ago, people calling themselves experts explained the drop in oil prices either with new data on its US reserves or with the decision of Saudi Arabia to again raise production volumes and ignore the OPEC + agreements.

What is now the explanation experts are looking for an increase in oil prices to almost $ 43 per barrel?

So, Arthur Berman, a geologist who has devoted 36 years of work in the oil and gas industry, and today advising shale companies, believes that the US shale industry is influencing the situation. According to Berman, in the United States they conducted an audit of oil shale drilling rigs and concluded that their number has decreased by almost 70% since mid-March.

So, if in March this number was 539, then an audit conducted last week showed that now there are only 165 of these plants. According to the American oil expert, these data indicate that in the near future the US will have to increase imports of “black gold ”, otherwise it will be impossible to restore economic performance.

Berman claims that while maintaining the current situation, US oil production could collapse by 50% by next year. This will be the largest reduction in recent years.

According to Arthur (Art) Berman, if you start the percentage of recovery in the number of drilling rigs, then the first production can begin at the restored facilities only after 9-12 months. During this period, according to experts, oil prices may rise. So far, experts do not judge the final marks of such growth.

Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia. This despite the fact that these prices did not go down after oil. During the week, the AI-95 brand went up more than others, showing a record jump in recent years.

Comments

[Doccor18]

experts are looking for an explanation

They will find, they are paid for it.

[Threaded screw]

They will find, they are paid for it.

A good expert is different from a bad one in that it can explain why his predictions did not come true. And the price of oil is highly speculative, shaping its reality.

[Tugarin]

I also remembered about these experts:
"Traders-analysts are divided into two categories - those who do not know what will happen, and those who do not know that they" do not know "

[venik]

Quote: Threaded screw

A good expert is different from a bad one in that it can explain why his predictions did not come true.

========
No words! Some "expressions" !!!
PS I myself have worked as a "financial analyst" for almost 15 years! ( )

[Svarog]

Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia. This despite the fact that these prices did not go down after oil. During the week, the AI-95 brand went up more than others, showing a record jump in recent years.

This point is more interesting .. prices are down, gas is in place, prices are up gas is also up .. and what will happen after zeroing?

[Doccor18]

and what will happen after zeroing?

All up!

[Stalllker]

When all of you are nullified, got

[Tugarin]

Absolutely man-made process.

[Pessimist22]

Only on price fluctuations can you earn money to speculators on the stability of the markets you will not earn much.

[ZloiEzh]

Say this to those who lost all their money on oil price fluctuations when the WTI had a price of -40 dollars per barrel. Speculation is often roulette, especially when those who understand little about how the economy and the market work and people who lose all their savings on speculation are much more likely to go there than those who go minus on market growth.

[Pessimist22]

When I thought about what exchange and financial terms mean, I bought a book by the Higher Education publishing house called Securities, I read and understood that both the stock exchange and the financial system are a game ... The one who said: What is our life? A game was right. ....

[Ravil_Asnafovich]

I can say, "don't expect anything good for us," they will still rob.

[svp67]

Oil prices go up again

The oilmen and our financiers "just have some kind of holiday ..."

[Roman123567]

Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia

This is the only thing that concerns us ..

[APASUS]

Shale oil needs to be saved in the USA. Americans press both openly and undercover

[Molox]

Quote: APASUS

Shale oil needs to be saved in the USA. Americans press both openly and undercover

Most likely ... They hoped that the Russian economy would collapse .. But everything turned out to be the other way around.

[Free wind]

Hooray!!! because the great !!!! A. Anyway cheers, our great one, he’s not mistaken, he’s so cunning ... well, he’s great. The Americans are right .... out of fear.

[Sahalinets]

Nanais come to the shaman and ask
- Will the winter be cold or warm? Do you have firewood?
The shaman thought about it - there wouldn’t be any firewood for anyone, but if they didn’t become cold, they would beat him ...
- It will be cold winter!
But then it became interesting to myself. I went to the weather station and asked
- What will be the winter?
- Cold!
- And why?
- Yes, the Nanai fled for firewood!
With iktsperty the same. They don’t know anything, only their cheeks are inflated.

[WIKI]

Sometimes, before commenting on an article, it is useful to read, although with a translator, the original article. Then the intention of the author - commentator becomes clear.

Berman claims that while maintaining the current situation, US oil production could collapse by 50% by next year.

In the original: "next year, oil production will decline by 50%. As a result, oil production in the United States will decrease from more than 12,5 million barrels per day at the beginning of this year to less than 8 million barrels per day by mid-2021." The time difference is 6 months.

the first production can begin at the restored facilities only after 9-12 months.

Original "Several months pass between the signal of a price increase and the signed contract for a drilling rig. Another 9-12 months will go from well launch to first production." Here we are talking about the launch of new wells. And the author of the article talks about the previously drilled ones - at least somehow, but to kick the fallen enemy.

[ZloiEzh]

Interestingly, does the author generally understand how the market as a whole and futures in particular work? Maybe I will reveal a secret to someone, but the rise and fall of oil prices is not determined by the real situation at the moment, but by positive or negative news and reports, based on which investors / traders make decisions on their investments. A positive oil report came out - the price went up, the negative news came out - the price fell. Another important point is that the market lives tomorrow and, accordingly, if we have reasonable forecasts that the recession of the world economy is ahead and the number of such forecasts prevails, then the oil price will fall due to the fact that during the recession oil demand drops significantly and vice versa. That is why, the price of oil is so unpredictable and volatile and there are no experts who could unequivocally predict a change in this price (if there were such, they would have already made a huge fortune thanks to the right purchases and sales, based on knowledge of the change in quotations in the future).

[123456789]

Along with oil, gasoline prices went up at gas stations in Russia.

Tugarin (Mikhail) June 19, 2020 12: 57 + 8

Absolutely man-made process.

The invisible hand of the market