Given the rapid economic development of China, the obvious growth of its military potential, many professional researchers and ordinary interested people are increasingly wondering what to expect from China in the future, what are its strategic military plans.
The official military doctrine of the PRC is set forth, for example, in the White Paper prepared by the Ministry of Defense of China in July 2019, National Defense of China in a New Age; This doctrine is primarily defensive in nature, or rather, it focuses on the combination of active strategic defense to protect state sovereignty, security and development interests of the country and tactical offensive to retaliate against the first attacker, with categorical inadmissibility from China policies of hegemonism, expansionism, the creation of spheres of influence. In principle, if an equal sign is placed between “hegemonism, expansionism” and the “strategic offensive”, it should be recognized that China, officially limiting itself to the “tactical offensive”, is really alien to “hegemonism and expansionism”.
The fact that China is striving specifically for economic, but not for military leadership in the world, is indicated not only by Chinese experts, who, for obvious reasons, uphold official statements, but also by some leading Western experts.
Among such Chinese experts is Wang Wen, who has repeatedly made denials of Western adherents of the "Chinese threat." Wang Wen - permanent member of the board of the World Socialism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (AON PRC), special analyst at Xinhua News Agency, executive director of the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of the People’s University of China; The institute was established in January 2013 and is one of seven Chinese “think tanks” closely cooperating with the AON of the PRC and the Research Center for Development Problems of the State Council of the PRC. Currently, Wang Wen is proving that the Chinese Belt and Path initiative, which has been implemented since 2013, is not related to China’s strategic military plan, since the construction and development by the Chinese of port infrastructure in Greece, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar as part of the Marine Silk Initiative the path of the "21st century" is taking place with the goal of further increasing the volume of foreign trade of China as the first trading power in the world. Another argument of Wang Wen boils down to the fact that over the past 40 years, China is the only power that did not wage wars and did not take part in them in any other way, but the Chinese belt and path initiative aimed at international cooperation, which China implements in the process of its rise, it has nothing to do with the policies of colonialism, wars and robbery carried out by Western countries during their development. In addition, Wang Wen emphasizes that the Chinese government often deliberately distances the PLA from participating in the direct implementation of the Belt and the Way, and various issues of investment, trade, financial and infrastructural security are resolved by non-military methods, according to the Concept and Practical Implementation published in 2015. “The Economic Belt of the Silk Road and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road”; The authors of this document are the State Committee for Development and Reforms of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and the Ministry of Trade of the People’s Republic of China with the assistance of the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Department of International Relations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China and a number of financial and economic government agencies.
The leading Western expert on issues related to China’s global vision is Michael Pilsbury, head of the China Strategic Research Center at the Hudson Institute for Strategic Studies (USA), a leading China affairs consultant for several US administrations since Nixon. In his book “Centennial Marathon. China's Secret Strategy to Change the US as a Global Superpower ”, published in early 2015, Pillsbury, unwittingly in solidarity with official Chinese experts, argues that China’s strategic goal is to be a leader in the global economy.
However, by and large, Pilsbury’s book is not about that, but about the fact that since 1955 China has been implementing a kind of “centennial plan”, a kind of “strategic misleading program” or “strategic fraud program”.
Pilsbury believes that strengthening Chinese military capabilities is only part of this secret “program” designed to mask primarily China’s economic super-goals. So, in the 50s, at the direction of Mao Zedong, the idea of China as a poor, backward country was accentuated, for the sake of receiving large-scale economic assistance from abroad. And in the period from 1995 to 2000. China successfully lobbied its interests among American politicians and achieved at that time the approval by the US Congress of the most favored nation treatment for China in trade with the United States.
Pilsbury's book was censored by the FBI, the CIA, and the US Department of Defense. Although the most “sensitive places” were removed from it, it is information disclosed by official Washington on China’s methods of “misleading strategically” based on declassified orders from past US presidents, testimonies from six Chinese “traitors” and statements by Chinese “ hawks "in closed publications. Pilsbury most of all appreciated the opinion of “traitors” as “witnesses” of the Chinese “strategic deception program”, who revealed the tricks of China, which seeks to defeat the United States in the “centennial marathon”, and the revelation of the “hawks” for Pilsbury was that
"China uses the experience of its ancients to surpass the Americans, who do not understand anything in the ancient Chinese experience."
Meanwhile, in China itself, the "evidence" convincing Pilsbury of the "traitors" was not taken seriously. So, Jin Canzhong, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations of China People’s University, said:
"Most Americans hate these traitors (literally:" the party of those who show the way to the enemy "), because they themselves mislead the Americans."
To judge how true the strategic plans officially voiced by China, including the military, are certainly problematic at the usual reader and author level, is reality. And not only to foreign observers outside the PRC, but also to ordinary citizens of China. So, according to a considerable part of the Internet community of mainland China, the PLA really does exist and operates a certain “Strategic Misrepresentation Office”, whose full name is supposedly the “Office for the Study of Foreign Evaluation of Military Equipment and the Formation of Relevant Public Opinion”, and this is the task body - “interpretation and filtering” of various information materials and organization of various information “leaks” in order to defocus the attention of foreign observers, hide their own tactical plans or channel public opinion in China and abroad. Zhang Shaozhong, Rear Admiral of the PLA Navy, former Deputy Head of the Department of Logistics and Military Support of the PLA National Defense University, until recently, a popular military observer for Central Television of China, has appointed the "rumor" of the mysterious "Office" of Internet rumor. It was no coincidence that Zhang Shaozzhong got into the "chiefs of the Directorate", at one time some of the forecasts he voiced from the television screen came true exactly the opposite, and some of the information he voiced turned out to be an outright lie, for example, that China does not have a hardly visible fifth generation fighter. And the statement by Zhang Shaozhong about the "submarine braided by kelp" as a means of anti-submarine warfare, in general, has become an Internet meme. Regarding his statement that China allegedly lacks a fifth-generation “invisible” fighter (“Jian-20”), Zhang Shaozhong later admitted that he really deliberately “misled” the Americans, but to his “appointment” to the “post” “The head of the Strategic Misrepresentation Office” was humorous.
Another part of the Chinese continental Internet community is also ironic about the existence of the “Office”, frankly “joking” about this and calling among the “employees of the Office” not only belittling the potential of China and predicting the collapse of an American writer, blogger, columnist, television expert Zhang Jiadun (Gordon Zhang), but even the former US President Obama and the President of the Republic of China in Taiwan, Cai Inven.
Still patriotic Chinese Internet jokers at one time dubbed the "PLA Third Artillery" home-grown "pseudo-liberals singing abroad." The "joke" is that the "PLA Second Artillery" until December 31, 2015 was called the PLA Rocket Forces. The “artillery” subtext of this “joke” is also associated with the Internet expression “verbal cannon”, as well as with North Chinese jargon “mountain cannon”, meaning a fool. After the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March 2011, the “Third PLA artillery”, the Chinese continental Internet generally equated as much to “arms the formation of causal relationships. " The fact is that in the Guanzhou weekly Persona Yuga, whose motto is Remember Our Fate, and the publishing concept is Equality, Tolerance, Humanism, in March 9, dated March 21, 2011, the Fukushima tragedy was written as follows: “Earthquake, tsunami, radiation leak. "A Japanese lesson in peace from a highly moral and rational nation, from an operational and responsible government, from free media that everyone trusts." That is, a perverted causal relationship was built up in the reader’s mind: the cause was the advanced Japanese state and society, and the result was a terrible catastrophe at nuclear power plants. (It is possible that the Persona South magazine's motto “Remember Our Fate” is a hint at the Kuomintang revolutionary republic of South China, which defeated the reactionary militaristic North in the mid-20s of the 20th century. Is it not one of the “roots” of modern South China Syangan protest to the central government of the PRC in the North? - A. Sh.).
Sometimes it’s really hard to understand where Chinese bloggers stop being ironic and start talking seriously. In this sense, the reasoning of the user who called himself "the department of the Shandong University for interaction with the armed forces" is indicative. (Zhi Hu website, October 24, 2019). In his publication entitled “The Tasks and Place of the Office of Strategic Misrepresentation in the New Era,” he discusses in detail the notorious “Strategic Misrepresentation Office,” which, in his words, is Zhang Shaozhong, which he says is beautiful According to him, it was created in the 90s of the 20th century with the goal of hiding the true directions of China’s strategic aspirations from the world, “letting go of strategic fog”, using metaphorically applied weapons, and putting into practice the traditional Chinese political concept of “strive for nothing not to show oneself, keep in the background ”, taking into account the negative trends in public opinion in China and abroad, carry out the corresponding counter-propaganda, rally those who are passionately devoted to the PLA. To date, this user believes, in the "activities" of the "Office" there are difficulties requiring the adjustment of his "work". This is, firstly, due to the fact that it is difficult for foreign countries “misled about the strategy of China by the activities of the Office” to understand the policy of China, and the negative external factors directed against China, in such circumstances, are growing unhindered. Secondly, “misleading foreign countries about China’s strategy” is excessive, because of this, China’s struggle for public opinion abroad is ineffective, and the influence of Chinese culture and the Chinese economy on foreign countries is weakened. Thirdly, not only foreign countries, but also Chinese society are “misled about the strategy of China,” which is why ardent PLA supporters, whose number grows with the strengthening of the army, remain at the level of “educational program” in their knowledge of the country's armed forces ". In addition, according to the Chinese user, the "staff" of the "Office" are bloated, and many of its "employees" only create the appearance of work or transfer to positions not related to the immediate tasks of the "Office". The Chinese user believes that under the current conditions, the "Office" should face three main "tasks". Firstly, the “Office” should contribute to the Chinese “strategy of military deterrence” and the Chinese “strategy of economic pressure” in relation to those countries that “have lost the sense of reality” in order to “force them to abandon their strategic plans”. Secondly, the "Management" should help to "educate" outside China those who will "chant China" and open the eyes of the foreign public to a positive example of China's development, create a positive image of China among the foreign public, act for the benefit of all mankind and at the same time in the interests of China, to promote the interests of China in various fields. Thirdly, the “Management” should help increase the level of popularization and support of the PLA in Chinese society, popularize the ideas of geopolitics in Chinese society, increase the level of understanding of China’s domestic and foreign policies by citizens of the country, develop highly professional Chinese “think tanks”, and fight against “garbage” Media, social networks, chat rooms, instant messengers in China.
It is difficult to say whether the “representative of Shandong University” demonstrates real knowledge about the “Strategic Misrepresentation Management” or simply reasonably, logically analyzing the current foreign and domestic political situation in which China is located. But the Chinese blogosphere tells not only about how and in what "doses" China needs to give the world its strategic ideas in the "new era", on the way to realizing its main national-state goal of the present - the "Chinese dream of a great revival of the Chinese nation ". In the Chinese blogosphere, one can also find reasoning, so to speak, on the essence of China's "hidden" strategic plans.
So, the author of the Chinese site “School of Higher Knowledge”, which functions as a place for popularizing the teachings of the ancients and values of the Han civilization, is “Mr. Bai Yun” (translated as “White Cloud”). He does not give his real name and explains that he borrowed the pseudonym of the semi-legendary Taoist saint and the famous hermit philosopher of the 10th century A.D. Chen Tuan. Back in 2016, “Mr. Bai Yun” posted an article on his website “China, USA, Russia: Ancient Chinese historical the novel "Three Kingdoms" in a modern way. The beginning of the "plot". In chapter 4 of this article, the author calls “Eurasian integration” as the Chinese “strategy for the future”; to implement this strategy, in his opinion, three conditions must be met: first, the strengthening of Sino-Russian ties and the prevention of a Russian turn to the United States; secondly, the creation of the Great Wall of China to prevent the invasion of hostile maritime powers on the Eurasian continent; thirdly, strengthening the military coalition of China, Pakistan and Iran to exercise China’s control of the Middle East, and then to ensure China’s influence on Europe.
To fulfill the first condition, says Mr. Bai Yun, China needs to take into account that there are three “sensitive points” of Russia in its path: Siberia, Mongolia and Central Asia, so if China does not create Russia's problems here, it will not quarrel with him. The fulfillment of the second condition, in the opinion of “Mr. Bai Yun,” presupposes the phased creation of five “links” of the defensive system of the Great Sea Wall of China. The first link is the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The second link is the formation of a military alliance between China and the Philippines and Malaysia. The third link is the organization of the defense system in the Yellow, East China and South China Seas with the inclusion of the Korean Peninsula and Japan in the scope of this system. The fourth link is China's gaining control of Indonesia and Australia, and the inclusion of the western Pacific Ocean in China’s Great Wall’s defense system. The fifth link is China gaining control of the Indian Ocean with reliance on Pakistan and Iran.
On the path to becoming the defensive system of the Great Sea Wall of China, Vietnam is the most “sensitive point” for him, therefore, says Mr. Bai Yun, taking into account Vietnam’s “warm relations” with Russia, China can go on a “exchange of interests” with Russia, namely, in exchange for Russia’s refusal to support Vietnam, China will restrain its “expansion” in Central Asia. The Chinese author explains that in Central Asia Russia is not able to maintain its position and does not dare to fight here, therefore, in order to maintain anti-Russian, but at the same time pro-Chinese sentiments in this region, for example, in Tajikistan, it is enough for China to cooperate with Central Asian states economically, tacitly allowing them to remain in the sphere of Russia's military influence, which is what constrain China from containing its “expansion" here. If Russia does not want to abandon Vietnam, adds “Mr. Bai Yun,” China will be able to take the path of deepening its penetration into Central Asia, forcing Russia to abandon Vietnam.
The fulfillment of the third condition, says the Chinese author, is due to the policy of China in the Near and Middle East, "weapons in exchange for oil." According to him, the influence on Pakistan for China is not only an opportunity to isolate Russia from direct dialogue and “collusion” with India, Pakistan is also the main direction of the Chinese “weapons for oil” policy and the first link on China’s path to the Islamic world . As for Iran, “Mr. Bai Yun continues,” this is a key state for ensuring China’s future control over the Middle East, because thanks to its influence on Iran, China will be able to cope with Saudi Arabia and thus neutralize the US’s “oil for oil” tactics in the Middle East. closed to saudi arabia. And control over the Middle East, the “Balkans of the world," says Mr. Bai Yun, will open China a "gateway to Europe."
Chapter 6 of his article, “Mr. Bai Yun,” called “Peace in the gun barrel”, in which he argues that the most dangerous thing is a full-scale war between the United States and China, which is possible only if the Americans themselves decide on a military adventure against PRC. If this does not happen, the Chinese author believes, you can be calm, because without the US’s determination to start a war with China, Japan will quickly bow its head before him, and Russia will not think about enmity with him. To discourage the very idea of the Americans from the Americans about the possibility of a military conflict with China, and even in the era of the global “retreat” of the United States, the author is convinced, it is possible only by the principle of “peace in the gun barrel”, that is, continuously strengthening the military potential of China. “Mr. Bai Yun” adds that although Sun Tzu in his “Treatise on Military Art” wrote: “The highest level of military art is to defeat the enemy by cunning, the level below is to defeat the enemy by diplomacy, the level even lower is to defeat the enemy by tactics, and the level is very low military art is a frontal assault on fortresses ”, however, only a militarily strong US opposing state will have the opportunity to be guided by“ the highest level of military art - defeating the enemy by cunning ”, and“ one who is not ready for war is doomed to defeat ”.
It is no secret that the supreme governing body responsible for the development of strategic plans of China is the Central Military Council of the CPC (CPC CPC) (the name of which is often traditionally, but not exactly translated as “Military Council of the Central Committee of the CPC.” - A.Sh.), he is the Central Military Council of the People's Republic of China (TsVS of the People’s Republic of China). This should not be surprising, since the phenomenon of “one organization, two signs” is widespread in China, when many party, government, and even public bodies have two or more names that are used depending on the sphere of application of these authorities. Confirmation that the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China is a single body with two names is their composition: both the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese Central Committee of the President, Xi Jinping, vice-chairmen: Xu Qiliang and Zhang Yusya, members: Wei Fenghe (Minister of Defense PRC), Li Zocheng, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin.
After the reform of the operational-strategic military command and control system, which started in November 2015 - January 2016, the PLA has five types of armed forces: Ground Forces, Navy, Air Force, Missile Forces and Strategic Support Troops (the last two types were created at the end 2015). And the functions of the former “four main organs” of the PLA (the General Staff, Glavpur, the Main Logistics Directorate and the Main Arms Directorate) are now transferred to the CPC CPC / CPC China, in a single structure which now has “fifteen authorized bodies”: Main Chancellery (existed before) ; Joint Headquarters; Department of Political Work; Logistics Support Department; Department of Arms Development; Department of Personnel Training; Defense Mobilization Department; Disciplinary Commission; Political and legal commission; Scientific and technical commission; Office of Strategic Planning; Office of Reform and Acquisition; Office of International Military Cooperation; Audit Office; General Directorate of Administrative Issues.
As for the PLA’s brand of the armed forces, the PLA Strategic Support Troops, it focuses on such functions as operational data collection, technical reconnaissance, receiving information from satellites, electronic warfare, and conducting network and psychological wars.
Perhaps if the PRC really has a body responsible for disguising and dosing the publication of strategic plans, it should be sought somewhere in the bowels of the CPC CPC / CPC of the PRC or the PLA Strategic Support Troops. But, of course, this is an exclusively private assumption.