Military Review

On the strategic plans of China


Given the rapid economic development of China, the obvious growth of its military potential, many professional researchers and ordinary interested people are increasingly wondering what to expect from China in the future, what are its strategic military plans.

The official military doctrine of the PRC is set forth, for example, in the White Paper prepared by the Ministry of Defense of China in July 2019, National Defense of China in a New Age; This doctrine is primarily defensive in nature, or rather, it focuses on the combination of active strategic defense to protect state sovereignty, security and development interests of the country and tactical offensive to retaliate against the first attacker, with categorical inadmissibility from China policies of hegemonism, expansionism, the creation of spheres of influence. In principle, if an equal sign is placed between “hegemonism, expansionism” and the “strategic offensive”, it should be recognized that China, officially limiting itself to the “tactical offensive”, is really alien to “hegemonism and expansionism”.

The fact that China is striving specifically for economic, but not for military leadership in the world, is indicated not only by Chinese experts, who, for obvious reasons, uphold official statements, but also by some leading Western experts.

Among such Chinese experts is Wang Wen, who has repeatedly made denials of Western adherents of the "Chinese threat." Wang Wen - permanent member of the board of the World Socialism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (AON PRC), special analyst at Xinhua News Agency, executive director of the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of the People’s University of China; The institute was established in January 2013 and is one of seven Chinese “think tanks” closely cooperating with the AON of the PRC and the Research Center for Development Problems of the State Council of the PRC. Currently, Wang Wen is proving that the Chinese Belt and Path initiative, which has been implemented since 2013, is not related to China’s strategic military plan, since the construction and development by the Chinese of port infrastructure in Greece, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar as part of the Marine Silk Initiative the path of the "21st century" is taking place with the goal of further increasing the volume of foreign trade of China as the first trading power in the world. Another argument of Wang Wen boils down to the fact that over the past 40 years, China is the only power that did not wage wars and did not take part in them in any other way, but the Chinese belt and path initiative aimed at international cooperation, which China implements in the process of its rise, it has nothing to do with the policies of colonialism, wars and robbery carried out by Western countries during their development. In addition, Wang Wen emphasizes that the Chinese government often deliberately distances the PLA from participating in the direct implementation of the Belt and the Way, and various issues of investment, trade, financial and infrastructural security are resolved by non-military methods, according to the Concept and Practical Implementation published in 2015. “The Economic Belt of the Silk Road and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road”; The authors of this document are the State Committee for Development and Reforms of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and the Ministry of Trade of the People’s Republic of China with the assistance of the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Department of International Relations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China and a number of financial and economic government agencies.

The leading Western expert on issues related to China’s global vision is Michael Pilsbury, head of the China Strategic Research Center at the Hudson Institute for Strategic Studies (USA), a leading China affairs consultant for several US administrations since Nixon. In his book “Centennial Marathon. China's Secret Strategy to Change the US as a Global Superpower ”, published in early 2015, Pillsbury, unwittingly in solidarity with official Chinese experts, argues that China’s strategic goal is to be a leader in the global economy.

However, by and large, Pilsbury’s book is not about that, but about the fact that since 1955 China has been implementing a kind of “centennial plan”, a kind of “strategic misleading program” or “strategic fraud program”.

Pilsbury believes that strengthening Chinese military capabilities is only part of this secret “program” designed to mask primarily China’s economic super-goals. So, in the 50s, at the direction of Mao Zedong, the idea of ​​China as a poor, backward country was accentuated, for the sake of receiving large-scale economic assistance from abroad. And in the period from 1995 to 2000. China successfully lobbied its interests among American politicians and achieved at that time the approval by the US Congress of the most favored nation treatment for China in trade with the United States.

Pilsbury's book was censored by the FBI, the CIA, and the US Department of Defense. Although the most “sensitive places” were removed from it, it is information disclosed by official Washington on China’s methods of “misleading strategically” based on declassified orders from past US presidents, testimonies from six Chinese “traitors” and statements by Chinese “ hawks "in closed publications. Pilsbury most of all appreciated the opinion of “traitors” as “witnesses” of the Chinese “strategic deception program”, who revealed the tricks of China, which seeks to defeat the United States in the “centennial marathon”, and the revelation of the “hawks” for Pilsbury was that

"China uses the experience of its ancients to surpass the Americans, who do not understand anything in the ancient Chinese experience."

Meanwhile, in China itself, the "evidence" convincing Pilsbury of the "traitors" was not taken seriously. So, Jin Canzhong, deputy director of the Institute of International Relations of China People’s University, said:

"Most Americans hate these traitors (literally:" the party of those who show the way to the enemy "), because they themselves mislead the Americans."

To judge how true the strategic plans officially voiced by China, including the military, are certainly problematic at the usual reader and author level, is reality. And not only to foreign observers outside the PRC, but also to ordinary citizens of China. So, according to a considerable part of the Internet community of mainland China, the PLA really does exist and operates a certain “Strategic Misrepresentation Office”, whose full name is supposedly the “Office for the Study of Foreign Evaluation of Military Equipment and the Formation of Relevant Public Opinion”, and this is the task body - “interpretation and filtering” of various information materials and organization of various information “leaks” in order to defocus the attention of foreign observers, hide their own tactical plans or channel public opinion in China and abroad. Zhang Shaozhong, Rear Admiral of the PLA Navy, former Deputy Head of the Department of Logistics and Military Support of the PLA National Defense University, until recently, a popular military observer for Central Television of China, has appointed the "rumor" of the mysterious "Office" of Internet rumor. It was no coincidence that Zhang Shaozzhong got into the "chiefs of the Directorate", at one time some of the forecasts he voiced from the television screen came true exactly the opposite, and some of the information he voiced turned out to be an outright lie, for example, that China does not have a hardly visible fifth generation fighter. And the statement by Zhang Shaozhong about the "submarine braided by kelp" as a means of anti-submarine warfare, in general, has become an Internet meme. Regarding his statement that China allegedly lacks a fifth-generation “invisible” fighter (“Jian-20”), Zhang Shaozhong later admitted that he really deliberately “misled” the Americans, but to his “appointment” to the “post” “The head of the Strategic Misrepresentation Office” was humorous.

Another part of the Chinese continental Internet community is also ironic about the existence of the “Office”, frankly “joking” about this and calling among the “employees of the Office” not only belittling the potential of China and predicting the collapse of an American writer, blogger, columnist, television expert Zhang Jiadun (Gordon Zhang), but even the former US President Obama and the President of the Republic of China in Taiwan, Cai Inven.

Still patriotic Chinese Internet jokers at one time dubbed the "PLA Third Artillery" home-grown "pseudo-liberals singing abroad." The "joke" is that the "PLA Second Artillery" until December 31, 2015 was called the PLA Rocket Forces. The “artillery” subtext of this “joke” is also associated with the Internet expression “verbal cannon”, as well as with North Chinese jargon “mountain cannon”, meaning a fool. After the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March 2011, the “Third PLA artillery”, the Chinese continental Internet generally equated as much to “arms the formation of causal relationships. " The fact is that in the Guanzhou weekly Persona Yuga, whose motto is Remember Our Fate, and the publishing concept is Equality, Tolerance, Humanism, in March 9, dated March 21, 2011, the Fukushima tragedy was written as follows: “Earthquake, tsunami, radiation leak. "A Japanese lesson in peace from a highly moral and rational nation, from an operational and responsible government, from free media that everyone trusts." That is, a perverted causal relationship was built up in the reader’s mind: the cause was the advanced Japanese state and society, and the result was a terrible catastrophe at nuclear power plants. (It is possible that the Persona South magazine's motto “Remember Our Fate” is a hint at the Kuomintang revolutionary republic of South China, which defeated the reactionary militaristic North in the mid-20s of the 20th century. Is it not one of the “roots” of modern South China Syangan protest to the central government of the PRC in the North? - A. Sh.).

Sometimes it’s really hard to understand where Chinese bloggers stop being ironic and start talking seriously. In this sense, the reasoning of the user who called himself "the department of the Shandong University for interaction with the armed forces" is indicative. (Zhi Hu website, October 24, 2019). In his publication entitled “The Tasks and Place of the Office of Strategic Misrepresentation in the New Era,” he discusses in detail the notorious “Strategic Misrepresentation Office,” which, in his words, is Zhang Shaozhong, which he says is beautiful According to him, it was created in the 90s of the 20th century with the goal of hiding the true directions of China’s strategic aspirations from the world, “letting go of strategic fog”, using metaphorically applied weapons, and putting into practice the traditional Chinese political concept of “strive for nothing not to show oneself, keep in the background ”, taking into account the negative trends in public opinion in China and abroad, carry out the corresponding counter-propaganda, rally those who are passionately devoted to the PLA. To date, this user believes, in the "activities" of the "Office" there are difficulties requiring the adjustment of his "work". This is, firstly, due to the fact that it is difficult for foreign countries “misled about the strategy of China by the activities of the Office” to understand the policy of China, and the negative external factors directed against China, in such circumstances, are growing unhindered. Secondly, “misleading foreign countries about China’s strategy” is excessive, because of this, China’s struggle for public opinion abroad is ineffective, and the influence of Chinese culture and the Chinese economy on foreign countries is weakened. Thirdly, not only foreign countries, but also Chinese society are “misled about the strategy of China,” which is why ardent PLA supporters, whose number grows with the strengthening of the army, remain at the level of “educational program” in their knowledge of the country's armed forces ". In addition, according to the Chinese user, the "staff" of the "Office" are bloated, and many of its "employees" only create the appearance of work or transfer to positions not related to the immediate tasks of the "Office". The Chinese user believes that under the current conditions, the "Office" should face three main "tasks". Firstly, the “Office” should contribute to the Chinese “strategy of military deterrence” and the Chinese “strategy of economic pressure” in relation to those countries that “have lost the sense of reality” in order to “force them to abandon their strategic plans”. Secondly, the "Management" should help to "educate" outside China those who will "chant China" and open the eyes of the foreign public to a positive example of China's development, create a positive image of China among the foreign public, act for the benefit of all mankind and at the same time in the interests of China, to promote the interests of China in various fields. Thirdly, the “Management” should help increase the level of popularization and support of the PLA in Chinese society, popularize the ideas of geopolitics in Chinese society, increase the level of understanding of China’s domestic and foreign policies by citizens of the country, develop highly professional Chinese “think tanks”, and fight against “garbage” Media, social networks, chat rooms, instant messengers in China.

It is difficult to say whether the “representative of Shandong University” demonstrates real knowledge about the “Strategic Misrepresentation Management” or simply reasonably, logically analyzing the current foreign and domestic political situation in which China is located. But the Chinese blogosphere tells not only about how and in what "doses" China needs to give the world its strategic ideas in the "new era", on the way to realizing its main national-state goal of the present - the "Chinese dream of a great revival of the Chinese nation ". In the Chinese blogosphere, one can also find reasoning, so to speak, on the essence of China's "hidden" strategic plans.

So, the author of the Chinese site “School of Higher Knowledge”, which functions as a place for popularizing the teachings of the ancients and values ​​of the Han civilization, is “Mr. Bai Yun” (translated as “White Cloud”). He does not give his real name and explains that he borrowed the pseudonym of the semi-legendary Taoist saint and the famous hermit philosopher of the 10th century A.D. Chen Tuan. Back in 2016, “Mr. Bai Yun” posted an article on his website “China, USA, Russia: Ancient Chinese historical the novel "Three Kingdoms" in a modern way. The beginning of the "plot". In chapter 4 of this article, the author calls “Eurasian integration” as the Chinese “strategy for the future”; to implement this strategy, in his opinion, three conditions must be met: first, the strengthening of Sino-Russian ties and the prevention of a Russian turn to the United States; secondly, the creation of the Great Wall of China to prevent the invasion of hostile maritime powers on the Eurasian continent; thirdly, strengthening the military coalition of China, Pakistan and Iran to exercise China’s control of the Middle East, and then to ensure China’s influence on Europe.

To fulfill the first condition, says Mr. Bai Yun, China needs to take into account that there are three “sensitive points” of Russia in its path: Siberia, Mongolia and Central Asia, so if China does not create Russia's problems here, it will not quarrel with him. The fulfillment of the second condition, in the opinion of “Mr. Bai Yun,” presupposes the phased creation of five “links” of the defensive system of the Great Sea Wall of China. The first link is the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The second link is the formation of a military alliance between China and the Philippines and Malaysia. The third link is the organization of the defense system in the Yellow, East China and South China Seas with the inclusion of the Korean Peninsula and Japan in the scope of this system. The fourth link is China's gaining control of Indonesia and Australia, and the inclusion of the western Pacific Ocean in China’s Great Wall’s defense system. The fifth link is China gaining control of the Indian Ocean with reliance on Pakistan and Iran.

On the path to becoming the defensive system of the Great Sea Wall of China, Vietnam is the most “sensitive point” for him, therefore, says Mr. Bai Yun, taking into account Vietnam’s “warm relations” with Russia, China can go on a “exchange of interests” with Russia, namely, in exchange for Russia’s refusal to support Vietnam, China will restrain its “expansion” in Central Asia. The Chinese author explains that in Central Asia Russia is not able to maintain its position and does not dare to fight here, therefore, in order to maintain anti-Russian, but at the same time pro-Chinese sentiments in this region, for example, in Tajikistan, it is enough for China to cooperate with Central Asian states economically, tacitly allowing them to remain in the sphere of Russia's military influence, which is what constrain China from containing its “expansion" here. If Russia does not want to abandon Vietnam, adds “Mr. Bai Yun,” China will be able to take the path of deepening its penetration into Central Asia, forcing Russia to abandon Vietnam.

The fulfillment of the third condition, says the Chinese author, is due to the policy of China in the Near and Middle East, "weapons in exchange for oil." According to him, the influence on Pakistan for China is not only an opportunity to isolate Russia from direct dialogue and “collusion” with India, Pakistan is also the main direction of the Chinese “weapons for oil” policy and the first link on China’s path to the Islamic world . As for Iran, “Mr. Bai Yun continues,” this is a key state for ensuring China’s future control over the Middle East, because thanks to its influence on Iran, China will be able to cope with Saudi Arabia and thus neutralize the US’s “oil for oil” tactics in the Middle East. closed to saudi arabia. And control over the Middle East, the “Balkans of the world," says Mr. Bai Yun, will open China a "gateway to Europe."

Chapter 6 of his article, “Mr. Bai Yun,” called “Peace in the gun barrel”, in which he argues that the most dangerous thing is a full-scale war between the United States and China, which is possible only if the Americans themselves decide on a military adventure against PRC. If this does not happen, the Chinese author believes, you can be calm, because without the US’s determination to start a war with China, Japan will quickly bow its head before him, and Russia will not think about enmity with him. To discourage the very idea of ​​the Americans from the Americans about the possibility of a military conflict with China, and even in the era of the global “retreat” of the United States, the author is convinced, it is possible only by the principle of “peace in the gun barrel”, that is, continuously strengthening the military potential of China. “Mr. Bai Yun” adds that although Sun Tzu in his “Treatise on Military Art” wrote: “The highest level of military art is to defeat the enemy by cunning, the level below is to defeat the enemy by diplomacy, the level even lower is to defeat the enemy by tactics, and the level is very low military art is a frontal assault on fortresses ”, however, only a militarily strong US opposing state will have the opportunity to be guided by“ the highest level of military art - defeating the enemy by cunning ”, and“ one who is not ready for war is doomed to defeat ”.

It is no secret that the supreme governing body responsible for the development of strategic plans of China is the Central Military Council of the CPC (CPC CPC) (the name of which is often traditionally, but not exactly translated as “Military Council of the Central Committee of the CPC.” - A.Sh.), he is the Central Military Council of the People's Republic of China (TsVS of the People’s Republic of China). This should not be surprising, since the phenomenon of “one organization, two signs” is widespread in China, when many party, government, and even public bodies have two or more names that are used depending on the sphere of application of these authorities. Confirmation that the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China is a single body with two names is their composition: both the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Chinese Central Committee of the President, Xi Jinping, vice-chairmen: Xu Qiliang and Zhang Yusya, members: Wei Fenghe (Minister of Defense PRC), Li Zocheng, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin.

After the reform of the operational-strategic military command and control system, which started in November 2015 - January 2016, the PLA has five types of armed forces: Ground Forces, Navy, Air Force, Missile Forces and Strategic Support Troops (the last two types were created at the end 2015). And the functions of the former “four main organs” of the PLA (the General Staff, Glavpur, the Main Logistics Directorate and the Main Arms Directorate) are now transferred to the CPC CPC / CPC China, in a single structure which now has “fifteen authorized bodies”: Main Chancellery (existed before) ; Joint Headquarters; Department of Political Work; Logistics Support Department; Department of Arms Development; Department of Personnel Training; Defense Mobilization Department; Disciplinary Commission; Political and legal commission; Scientific and technical commission; Office of Strategic Planning; Office of Reform and Acquisition; Office of International Military Cooperation; Audit Office; General Directorate of Administrative Issues.

As for the PLA’s brand of the armed forces, the PLA Strategic Support Troops, it focuses on such functions as operational data collection, technical reconnaissance, receiving information from satellites, electronic warfare, and conducting network and psychological wars.

Perhaps if the PRC really has a body responsible for disguising and dosing the publication of strategic plans, it should be sought somewhere in the bowels of the CPC CPC / CPC of the PRC or the PLA Strategic Support Troops. But, of course, this is an exclusively private assumption.
Photos used:
Enrique lopez garre
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    1. Ragnar Lodbrok
      Ragnar Lodbrok 16 June 2020 06: 15
      Don’t say, and poor China is in the way, and Russia, the United States, Vietnam with Saudi Arabia, and Japan and the rest are bad, they’re bad.
      on the way to his advancement
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 16 June 2020 08: 41
        . Sun Tzu in his Treatise on Military Art, wrote: “The highest level of military art is defeat the enemy by cunning, a level lower - defeating the enemy by diplomacy, a level even lower - defeating the enemy by tactics, and a very low level of military art - a frontal assault on fortresses

        Well-known orientalist professor Maslov, so that the listeners can understand the mentality of the Chinese, he brought such a story.

        The pride of the nation was an invincible duelist who did not know defeat, because he did not kill his rivals in the duel itself, but on the way to it, insidiously hiding behind a tree.
        When asked why he was acting so dishonestly, he replied:
        - But what an effect!

        And this explanation was quite comprehensive for the Chinese who idolized their idol. The Chinese believe the positive effect outweighs the moral aspects.

        This must be borne in mind. China is friends only as long as it is profitable.
      2. Hagen
        Hagen 16 June 2020 10: 03
        Quote: Ragnar Lothbrok
        poor China is getting in the way

        There is nothing surprising. With such a mass of population, China is quite capable of building autarchy that does not need close external ties. Today's situation, when China depends on foreign markets, they see as a temporary forced measure.
      3. Civil
        Civil 16 June 2020 11: 03
        The CCP has one goal, and it is spelled out in the party’s charter - the welfare of the Chinese. What they masterly and succeed.
      4. NIKN
        NIKN 17 June 2020 12: 44
        I already wrote today ... well, what are you driving? Well, I’m a military man and I’ll fight for my country ... Well, fate is like that, November I don’t want to kill you ... we are hostages of our state .. Well, I have friends in Ukraine and Israel .. thank God ... Well, you all suffer from a phobia. Well, sorry, I didn’t like it .. cons for me is not a problem ...
    2. knn54
      knn54 16 June 2020 08: 34
      From a regional power to world domination.
      As Comrade Mao "bequeathed".
  2. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 16 June 2020 06: 43
    On the strategic plans of China

    Everything is simple here:
    “If you sit patiently on the riverbank for a long time and patiently, you can see how the corpse of your enemy swims across it.”
    Notice several features of a potentially hypothetical war with China:
    1. There is absolutely no data on the fighting spirit of the Chinese military during massive blows that destroy the structure of the economy, but we have the practice of the Chinese authorities in the event of a coronavirus pandemic.
    2. There is no information about the stunning successes and victories of the Chinese Armed Forces in the confrontation with those "whose corpses they are going to see, sitting on the riverbank."
    3. There are absolutely no hypotheses about the alleged fate (placement, employment and food) of one and a half billion defeated Chinese.
    From this I conclude that in China they know and understand that in any world conflict they will not get the role of the winner or the role of the vanquished.
    This is understood everywhere, and in the leadership of China, and “somewhere in the bowels of the CPC CPC / CPC China or the PLA Strategic Support Troops.”
    By and large, they don’t need to “shine” brightly, - with aggressive behavior no one will stand on ceremony with them.
    1. saigon
      saigon 16 June 2020 08: 05
      The problem is that we Europeans all without a relative nationality do not understand China and the Chinese.
      Sun Tzu read the mentioned treatises in two translations and there was a strange feeling that they were not translating the same author.
      Most perceive China as something single, monolithic, but it is not.
      China is not a monolith, at least in terms of nationality, the Han nation and many non-Han tribes, nationalities and peoples. The difference in the mental plan of the north and south of China is significant problems seem to be not noticeable, but they have to take even the Uyghurs is an ulcer on the body of the Chinese state.
      The problem of China is that they have hieroglyphic writing, training in this hieroglyphic system gives them the ability to remember and does not contribute to the development of creative thinking. I can’t say because I don’t know if the differences in reading the same character by the northern, central and southern Chinese were eliminated, and this was not so long ago.
      We do not understand China and cannot predict its behavior.
      1. iouris
        iouris 16 June 2020 16: 03
        Quote: saigon
        We do not understand China and cannot predict its behavior.

        Well, this means that "you" do not have a state with its attributes: intelligence, science, diplomacy, etc. you have no future. And it will surely come (as it is sung in the song of the Troubadour: "The sun will rise ...")
    2. depressant
      depressant 16 June 2020 08: 25
      ROSS 42 colleague ...
      On your point 3. In fact, China has entered the era of domination in the world, adopting a new economic doctrine called "Self-Destructive Economy". In contrast to the Western doctrine of global domination through banking capital. The latter, no matter how actively he stepped up his efforts in the past and present, could not, and is not able to prevent crises of re-production, which each time are becoming more destructive for most countries. For example, the terrible crisis of overproduction - the one we are dealing with now, is covered by the mask of the coronavirus epidemic. World experts have already recognized that the huge population of China, its special psychology and worldview is the favorable environment in which the doctrine of the "Self-Destructive Economy", which is not suitable for the West (for us too), will eventually work. And then China will not need to show aggression against anyone. Overproduction crises on its territory will simply disappear, and the whole world will be under their control without a fight. Therefore, the main task of China, which is realizing its doctrine of domination, is really to keep the world from aggression against itself over the next decades. The question is whether it will be possible to keep. Yes maybe. After all, the current crisis is terrible. It takes a lot of time to sort out the consequences, not before the war with China.
      Although the banking doctrine of world governance is the usual way to profit from the crisis of overproduction, as well as get out of it - war.
      1. thrust
        thrust 16 June 2020 22: 42
        no crises have ever threatened capital and never do. they threaten the state with social policy. "private capital hires power. The method of hiring is called democratic elections" b. Berezovsky. rascals see the root
  3. nikvic46
    nikvic46 16 June 2020 06: 43
    China can be intimidated with the phrase "As long as China sleeps, the world can sleep peacefully." But it's better to understand all the same. When a new epidemic began, a lot had to be changed in consciousness. And not only in relation to China, but the world as a whole. The country can be open, but such a service as a sanitary service should in any case work. must acquire a status as a security service. You can have the most modern weapons and at the same time be weak in relation to different epidemics. At first glance, this service has enough rights. And at the same time, the customs lives by its own rules, and the service by its own.
  4. rocket757
    rocket757 16 June 2020 06: 49
    what to expect from China in the future, what are its strategic military plans including.

    And who knows what it is expecting us tomorrow, them, expect ???
    1. Ugnetenni
      Ugnetenni 16 June 2020 20: 08
      Quote: rocket757
      what to expect from China in the future, what are its strategic military plans including.

      And who knows what it is expecting us tomorrow, them, expect ???

      China is not our rival, not that level .. Although there is a threat, Victor!
      China is more preoccupied with the US debt to him and very huge! Let them decide it .. hi
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 16 June 2020 20: 37
        Everything may change over time .... but for now, yes, you have to go in approximately the same direction.
        We must remember, who and what is the hope and support of our state. Always remember! And the rest is just episodes of our endless path!
  5. dzvero
    dzvero 16 June 2020 08: 09
    Um, "Mr. Bai Yunya's" calculations echoes the "southern strategy" of the Empire of the Rising Sun smile Well, for this, China first needs to solve the problem of island chains, and Taiwan comes first. And then they immediately encounter the hegemon (tm) on their foreheads ... They have such a fork - if they want to move to a new level, sooner or later they will deal with either the Russian Federation or the USA. And it is really not clear what kind of option they will choose - north (s) or south smile ...
  6. Carnifexx
    Carnifexx 16 June 2020 08: 24
    Wow, after such articles, get up at least on a stool and perform rhymes in honor of the CCP and Mao.
    Of course, China is engaged in expansion - numerous military bases and mercenaries in Africa and Pakistan.
    Of course, they do not keep their promises as soon as it becomes unprofitable for them. They promised Hong Kong autonomy with a "one country, two systems" policy, and in the end they crush and establish one system. Of course, after Xinjiang ("re-education" of the Uighurs) and Hong Kong, no one in their right mind will believe them. But as you can see, there are those who think outside the box
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 17 June 2020 02: 22
      The funny thing is that the governance system in Hong Kong is partly of some archaic character and in some aspects is even more anti-democratic in comparison with the mainland of China. The same can be said about social policy in Hong Kong. In general, this is by no means an island of Western democracy and a social state in a totalitarian PRC.
    2. Aleksandr21
      Aleksandr21 17 June 2020 15: 48
      Quote: Carnifexx
      They promised Hong Kong autonomy with a "one country, two systems" policy, and in the end they crush and establish one system.

      With Hong Kong, they can be understood, when Western countries cultivate the population of Hong Kong and young people go out on the streets demanding independence from China, not "one country - two systems" but complete independence, which state will like it? In Gongong, after all, as in Taiwan (the Republic of China is officially called), the same Chinese live as in the PRC itself, who simply followed the western path, and this issue should be decided exclusively by the Chinese among themselves, and not by Uncle Sam. And in general, if you look at what is on us (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus), Koreans (South Korea, DPRK), Chinese (PRC, Taiwan, Gongong), you can see the hand of the West that divides peoples and rules.
      1. Carnifexx
        Carnifexx 17 June 2020 20: 03
        No, it was not the West who "processed" the youth, it is the mainland that is taking away their rights, study the issue not from the People's Daily, and what exactly provoked the rallies. Spoiler - the PRC wants not only to put its own people in power in Hong Kong, but also to be able to repress all the unwanted.

        Quote: Aleksandr21
        about independence from China, not "one country - two systems" but complete independence, then which state will like it

        Well, the demands of individual protesters may even be about the base on the moon, yet the official list of demands has been published and is well known, they want the status quo.

        The Chinese are still living in Singapore.
        Yes, let's go west, and the question should be why the rest didn't go.

        What do you mean?
        Quote: Aleksandr21
        this issue should be decided exclusively by the Chinese among themselves, and not by Uncle Sam

        Quote: Aleksandr21
        the hand of the West is visible which divides peoples and rules.

        Not at once. The division of the USSR is to a large extent the result of Lenin’s national policy and the political situation in the USSR. In Belarus Lukashenko does not want to share power at all, not because of the United States or Germany, the fact is that anyone in his place would not want to share power; this is the nature of power. Korea is divided as a result of the war. You can familiarize yourself with the materials; the DPRK itself does not deny the fact of its aggression. After such a conflict and also because of such a difference in development, it is simply impossible if they unite. The Chinese are divided by war and the fact that there were colonies. The same Singapore is separated from mainland China by Malaysia, but in it the majority of the Han population. I don’t see a conspiracy here, it happened. Hong Kong was under the jurisdiction of Britain, which he really liked. Lee Kuan Yew put things in order with the help of the British Themis. The situation is much more complicated than there is a good chairman Xi, who wants to unite the people under the rule of the holy CCP and the evil USA and their henchmen-traitors.
        1. Aleksandr21
          Aleksandr21 18 June 2020 09: 12
          Quote: Carnifexx
          No, it was not the West who "processed" the youth, it is the mainland that is taking away their rights, study the issue not from the People's Daily, and what exactly provoked the rallies. Spoiler - the PRC wants not only to put its own people in power in Hong Kong, but also to be able to repress all the unwanted.

          The desire of the PRC to return Hong Kong as soon as possible does not cancel the fact that the West is heating up the mood of young people to completely separate from the PRC. After all, do you know that in 2047 Hong Kong should return to China? And the protests, yes, began because of the policy of the PRC's interference in the affairs of Hong Kong, but every year the protests are becoming stronger and stronger, and now the protesters are demanding not only that the PRC not go into Hong Kong's affairs, but also independence from China as a whole. The Gongans (Chinese by nationality) do not consider themselves residents of China and do not want to return to the PRC in 2047. And the West, these protest movements: 1) It finances 2) It provides support (information, political, etc.) in the end, when the UK approaches (and the United States, which controls the process), will find a reason to refuse this agreement (if China used to be will not solve the problem), because if Hong Kong returns, China’s attention will switch to the Republic of China (Taiwan) and Western countries do not need to strengthen China. Well, regarding the laws that the PRC adopted, they have the right to the legislative part that relates to the security of Hong Kong.

          Regarding the division of peoples, both in the USSR and in other countries, the West has been conducting an information policy on the division of peoples, and this has been going on since the times of the British Empire, where hotbeds of tension are being created and conflicts (territorial, cultural, religious) are inflated, look now at world what do you see? There is a Western civilization (led by the United States) that is promoting its model throughout the world and does not recognize the right of other civilizations to their own path. There is only "democracy" in the American way where you are obliged to buy the dollar, US goods, and follow in line with their policies, and if you refuse to do this, then you oppose yourself to the system, you need to explain what will happen to this country later? And this policy of controlling the whole world began even before the emergence of the United States, but other methods and tools were used there, but the threads go to the Anglo-Saxons. Of course, there are enough wars and contradictions in the world, it is in human nature and the Anglo-Saxons are not always to blame, but their role and their ears stick out in many conflicts and a lot of modern problems and disputes are created by their policies.
          1. Carnifexx
            Carnifexx 18 June 2020 18: 51
            Quote: Aleksandr21
            The desire of the PRC to quickly return Hong Kong does not undo the fact that the West is heating up the mood of youth to completely separate from the PRC
            So you understand that the PRC is making efforts to ensure that de facto accession takes place before 2047? How does the West fuel the mood of youth? China breaks the legal system under the interests of the CCP, and protests due to Western influence ...

            Quote: Aleksandr21
            because if Hong Kong returns, then China’s attention will switch to the Republic of China (Taiwan) and Western countries do not need to strengthen China
            Taiwan is more complicated, much more so since such an experience is before my eyes. I doubt that there is a reasonable person who agrees to this. PRC for annexation will need to block the island, causing hunger.

            Quote: Aleksandr21
            The West pursues an information policy for the division of peoples
            Did the West create the BSSR and the USSR? I don’t know any West at all. The collective West is a myth.

            Quote: Aleksandr21
            does not recognize the right of other civilizations to their own path
            In Iraq, the Shiite anti-American government was chosen under American occupation. So in the form of a hint. Of course, the USA does not like everything, but there are borders within which even they act.

            US policy is idiotic. Who did the sanctions help? Iranian, Venezuelan, Cuban, North Korean regimes, and did not help to overthrow them. This stupidity continues.
            I believe that the fact is that sanctions are for domestic consumption and the stated results do not interest them.
            In general, Trump’s decision on the Iranian nuclear deal and the Trans-Pacific Partnership says that he who hates Obama, so that he is ready to cancel all his decisions, despite the fact that TTP is an excellent springboard for a trade war with China.
            I see no reason to come up with conspiracy theories, where there is obvious stupidity, shortsightedness and just hackwork.
        2. Aleksandr21
          Aleksandr21 18 June 2020 09: 29
          By the way, besides Hong Kong, there is Macau, which is also in the "One country - two systems" system. Do you see problems there? Me not. Maybe because it didn't work out to stir up protest moods?
          1. Carnifexx
            Carnifexx 18 June 2020 18: 37
            Invalid comparison.
            1. Macau LESS. The population is 10 times smaller than that of Hong Kong.
            2. Macau makes a lot of money from tourism and gambling. The gaming sector is 7 times larger than Las Vegas, the same one.
            3. Hong Kong was under the jurisdiction of Britain and has a different culture.
            4. In Hong Kong, the influx of Chinese proletarians from the "mainland", of course by accident
            5. China is especially actively crushing Hong Kong, if it also deals with Macau then it will be possible to compare.
            1. Aleksandr21
              Aleksandr21 18 June 2020 19: 19
              Yes, Hong Kong has a different culture, but the people of Hong Kong should understand that "One country - two systems" is a temporary phenomenon, they are not recognized as a separate state .... it's just a territory (of China) with very broad autonomy, and the Han people there are 90% , the main composition of the PRC. And it is strange for me to hear their statements so that China does not interfere in the affairs of Hong Kong when this territory is part of China. Now it is 2020, after 27 years, according to plans, this scheme "One country - two systems" is canceled, for a person it is a decent life span, for a state 27 years is a short period of time and the fate of Hong Kong is resolved, the only question is when China will start preparing for complete control over the territory, and he started earlier than it should have been, but the result should be the same in the end. To some extent I can understand why China made such steps, those protest moods in Hong Kong among young people and those who consider themselves a Gongong not Chinese! grow every year, and the closer to 2047 the stronger the protest and the PRC wants to suppress this rebellion in the bud, with small forces (arrests of leaders, media control, etc.) than then lead a full-fledged army and repeat the events "in Tiananmen Square" therefore, the fate of Gongong has been largely resolved, but with Taiwan it will be many times more difficult ... in any case, this is an internal matter of China itself, and they will solve their problems.
  7. Doccor18
    Doccor18 16 June 2020 08: 30
    China’s inadmissibility of a policy of hegemony, expansionism, and the creation of spheres of influence.

    Golden words, if they were true.
    not only foreign countries, but also Chinese society "are misled about the strategy of China"

    And what is incomprehensible in this strategy? Become new gentlemen, replacing European and American gentlemen.
    This is the goal. And the means are the same - the merciless exploitation of third countries and their own poor population. There is only one goal, it was briefly and succinctly stated by Deng Xiaoping: "Get rich." And there is nothing to add.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 16 June 2020 09: 59
      Quote: Doccor18
      And what is incomprehensible in this strategy? Become new gentlemen, replacing European and American gentlemen.

      That's right, they will replace it. Although the American gentlemen have squeezed the European gentlemen for a long time, so China comes out "one, one" with the states. Knowing the meaning of "human material", one can foresee the outcome of the battle.
    2. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 17 June 2020 02: 23
      Dan respected Bukharin’s ideological legacy.
  8. EvilLion
    EvilLion 16 June 2020 08: 37
    Somewhere to get resources, so as not to return to a rice diet, while not being beaten by the whole world.
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 17 June 2020 02: 25
      In fact, in the Chinese diet rice never occupied such an outstanding position as in the Japanese, Koreans, and Vietnamese.
  9. parusnik
    parusnik 16 June 2020 08: 41
    The Chinese act according to the principle: if the enemy has built a fortress on the way, it is necessary to bypass from the rear, take it without attack. As long as there are two China, the PRC and Taiwan, the PRC will not rock the boat too much ... despite all its economic successes ... China has not yet solved its internal problem, the "Sinification" of the rest of the peoples living in the PRC ...
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 17 June 2020 02: 28
      Officially, this task is not posed, the emphasis is on the multinationality of the country, although at the same time 92% are Han. Competitions, festivals of folk art with pronounced specifics of different peoples of the PRC are constantly held.
  10. Operator
    Operator 16 June 2020 09: 39
    The strength of China is in the world's largest rabsil / mob reserve, the weakness of China is in the world's largest density of resettlement of the rabsil / mob reserve (destroyed by a limited number of nuclear strikes).

    The problem of China is the Communist Party, which is seriously afraid of a military coup in the country with the transfer of power to the Chinese oligarchs, hence the transfer of the PLA General Staff from the Ministry of Defense to the Central Military Council of the CPC (in the form of the Joint Headquarters).

    The task of the Russian Federation is to play on the contradictions of China and the USA.
    1. iouris
      iouris 16 June 2020 19: 27
      Quote: Operator
      The task of the Russian Federation is to play on the contradictions of China and the USA.

      The task is simple: to survive. But this must somehow be very much dodged.
    2. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 17 June 2020 02: 31
      The most massive rabsila actually in India. And the population density in India is much higher. The population is slightly inferior to China, and the area is almost three times smaller.
      1. Operator
        Operator 17 June 2020 03: 38
        I did not know that 1,3 billion (the population of India) is more than 1,4 billion (the population of China) laughing
        1. Sergej1972
          Sergej1972 17 June 2020 07: 13
          I wrote: The population is slightly inferior to China, and the area is almost three times smaller. What is incomprehensible here? It turns out that the concentration of both the population as a whole and labor resources per unit area in India is much higher. Given the low birth rate in China and very high in India, pretty soon India will come out on top in the world in terms of both total population and labor resources. And the percentage of people of retirement age in India is much lower compared to the aging population of China.
          A country with fewer inhabitants can have a larger population of working age. In each case, it is necessary to consider the structure of the demographic pyramid.
          1. Operator
            Operator 17 June 2020 11: 51
            Firstly, you wrote that the most massive rabsila in India.

            Secondly, despite the fact that China is larger than India in its territory, the Chinese rabsila / mobrezerv is concentrated on a narrow coastal strip, since the rest of China is occupied by mountains and deserts with unsuitable natural and climatic conditions.

            In other words, 99% of the labor force / mob reserve of China is covered by coastal explosions of 5-6 Poseidons with 100 Mtn warheads.
        2. Carnifexx
          Carnifexx 17 June 2020 20: 10
          Given the demography of China, this is not for long. By the end of this century, China will lose 400 million.
  11. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 16 June 2020 09: 49
    "China uses the experience of its ancients to surpass the Americans, who do not understand anything in the ancient Chinese experience."
    Well, what would you like, you Americans are only 200 years old, and the Chinese are more than 2000 years old. So the chicken can learn eggs.
  12. dgonni
    dgonni 16 June 2020 11: 44
    Where will China go north or south? You just need to think about why they set up new cities, in which no one actually lives, along the border with Russia!
    1. iouris
      iouris 16 June 2020 11: 59
      Quote: dgonni
      Where will China go north or south?

      This question implies the question: where will the Russian Federation go (where will it leave)?
      Quote: dgonni
      why did they set up new cities in which no one actually lives along the border with Russia!

      Probably will be sold to Muscovites. Muscovites always buy real estate.
  13. Doctor
    Doctor 16 June 2020 12: 04
    with China, Japan will quickly bow its head in front of it,

    Never. Quite the contrary, oddly enough it sounds now.
  14. srha
    srha 16 June 2020 12: 22
    In the short term, what matters is not intentions, but opportunities (180-degree turns in politics are not new). And in the distant ... Of course, it is necessary to track other people's aspirations, but it’s more important to carry out your own. And yes, all the projects voiced in the article are possible with the corresponding economy - and not a word about its prospects, i.e. Pure Politoboltology.
  15. Knell wardenheart
    Knell wardenheart 16 June 2020 13: 24
    While things are going uphill and there is money - plans will be built and books smart to write and with cunning faces to watch how they spank flippers in the west. Everything was already under the sun - and the Chinese were already puffed up with their pride and contempt for the surrounding nations, considering everyone as barbarians and their country a bastion of civilization. China’s strategic plan will be painfully similar to Japan’s plan - and they will put pressure on the same lines. Such a region. But India is rising, the Western world is still large and rich, Japan is still rich and ambitious - so for the most part, the Chinese plans are very long-term dreams, on the way to which they will get something, but lose their spirit and arrogance.
  16. Sahalinets
    Sahalinets 16 June 2020 14: 25
    Well, if we ignore speculation on ancient treatises (in which, by the way, there is nothing particularly clever and not), then the plan of China is as simple as a watermelon. Sit quietly, build up strength, covertly infiltrate, and then ... RAZZ ... and the States bow to the new ruler.
    That's just in Washington, not such fools are sitting.
  17. NF68
    NF68 16 June 2020 16: 35
    If Beijing becomes a real counterweight to Washington for the foreseeable future, there will be nothing wrong with the rest of the world. Maybe then the mattresses will not behave so arrogantly.
    1. mikula
      mikula 16 June 2020 16: 56
      I would not advise feeding a crocodile in order to defeat the anaconda. It is possible he will gobble up a snake, but this is unlikely to die for his appetite.
      1. NF68
        NF68 16 June 2020 16: 59
        Quote: mikula
        I would not advise feeding a crocodile in order to defeat the anaconda. It is possible he will gobble up a snake, but this is unlikely to die for his appetite.

        The Americans are no better and have completely lost their shores. So both sides will be afraid of each other and will behave more carefully.
  18. mikula
    mikula 16 June 2020 16: 41
    Do not believe China. China has not forgiven anyone, nor has it forgotten anything. This is for you the 19th century has sunk into oblivion, but not for China and the Chinese. They see the story in a different time frame.
    1. iouris
      iouris 17 June 2020 00: 56
      No one can be trusted (we are internationalists).
  19. Operator
    Operator 17 June 2020 20: 38
    Quote: Carnifexx
    by the end of this century

    "We, Tatars / Poseidons, don't care" (C) bully
  20. Sloboda0
    Sloboda0 21 June 2020 22: 00
    It's a little painful to look at China now. A kind of white envy.
    30 years ago they came to our city in the framework of cooperation. Father imported.
    They came and looked in their mouths. They asked how to arrange their children to study. We worked in some places, and I note that they worked 3 times more active and productive than our drunks.
    Now, after 30 years, when you look at the difference between our countries, it’s just pain is sadness!