Military Review

Libyan war: reflections on the chances of Marshal Haftar

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Events in Libya entered the next round of a seemingly endless spiral. Since this country, virtually destroyed by foreign intervention, has been plunged into the chaos of the civil war, about one and the same scenario has been unfolding in it over and over again. One of the sides of the conflict, which has been continuing for years, begins a “last and decisive” attack on their opponents, they ask for peace, but the representatives of the attacking side who see themselves as winners without five minutes resolutely reject these proposals. Until the roles of opponents change exactly the opposite ...


Today, Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army stood almost on the threshold of Tripoli yesterday and was preparing to celebrate the victory, advocates a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Today, the LNA is knocked out of the suburbs of the capital, it also lost control of a number of other important facilities, including the city of Tarhuna. Sirte was in jeopardy, essentially the key to the east of Libya, which is still controlled by Haftar and the country's parliament supporting him. The affairs of the field marshal are not just bad, but very bad. This is perfectly understood in the Government of National Accord, whose leader Faiz Saraj already considers himself a triumph, and therefore does not want to hear about reconciliation.

However, it is perfectly clear to everyone that the fate of Libya will ultimately be decided not by these two “statesmen”, whose armed formations by the armies can be called with a very big stretch. The "grandiose success" of the PNS was primarily ensured by the direct military intervention of Turkey, which Haftar’s troops, alas, were unable to counter effectively, despite all the supplies of weapons and equipment. If Ankara continues to continue in the same vein, the days of the LNA can indeed be numbered. Unfortunately, so far too much indicates that this is how it will be.

Turkish military presence


From various sources, information has been received on increasing Turkish military expansion in the country: the arrival of another batch of mercenaries from at least one hundred militants recruited in Idlib to Libya, new smuggling weapons and the like. The PNS, for example, openly announced the opening of an “air bridge” with Ankara, which will allow the transfer of weapons for it contrary to the EU’s IRINI naval mission aimed at curbing such supplies. Even more alarming are the voiced by the Turkish media data on the allegedly reached agreement between Ankara and Tripoli on the provision of Al-Vatiy air base and military base in Misrata port for the needs of the Turkish Air Force and Navy.

Nevertheless, we should not forget that the far-reaching plans of Recep Erdogan to establish complete military-political control over Libya are extremely worrying and complete rejection not only in Moscow. The European Union is completely unsatisfied with both Ankara’s attempts to restore order in the Middle East by force of arms and its “offensive” in the oil-bearing regions of the Mediterranean, which threatens to result in a military conflict with Athens. Both countries are part of the NATO bloc, but Greece belongs to the EU. And there the parties clearly demonstrated their choice, appointing the Greek admiral Theodoros Mikropoulos as the head of the IRINI mission mentioned above. The hint is more than transparent.

Egypt is categorically against the intentions of Turkey. So far, its president, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, has come up with the so-called Cairo Declaration, which calls for reconciliation of the parties, which Khalifa Haftar supports. However, if the events take a completely nasty turn and there is a real danger that the Libyan territory will fall under the control of the PNS (that is, Ankara), completely different actions may follow from the Egyptian side. And a military clash with Cairo, which has one of the most combat-ready armies in the Middle East today, will cost the Turks too expensive.

Moreover, many geopolitical players are seriously concerned that the situation is sliding towards the transformation of Libya into Syria in the 2014-2015 model. The information that militants of the “Islamic State” and a number of other extremist terrorist organizations of the same kind are prohibited in the ranks of armed PNS groups comes regularly from many sources. That revival of the IG * is definitely not needed by anyone and in any form, including the United States, so far endorsing and supporting the actions of Turkey.

Perhaps the last days of negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan could be a salvation for the LNA. The Libyan question was unambiguously discussed at them, however, both the details and the final result of this dialogue, of course, were not disclosed. If the two presidents managed to come to some kind of consensus (at least within the framework of the Cairo declaration), then Haftar will have chances to gain a foothold at the present borders, having retained at least the eastern part of the country. And then the parties will again begin to prepare for the next round of the fight ...
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  1. Hunter 2
    Hunter 2 13 June 2020 09: 09 New
    10
    Poor Libya! Nine years of War, lost Economic Potential, States with one of the highest standards of living! The ongoing Civil War is all against everyone plus foreign intervention ....
    Gaddafi - Libya is definitely not enough, it has kept this multinational state in stability for so many years. Neither Haftar nor Saraj - Wrong Leaders!
  2. rocket757
    rocket757 13 June 2020 09: 15 New
    +7
    There’s nothing to talk about.
    It all depends on external players ... who has a stronger Faberge, and that is the bank.
    1. Hunter 2
      Hunter 2 13 June 2020 09: 18 New
      +3
      Yeah ... in the scenario of a direct clash between Egypt (supported by the UAE and the SAUDITS) and Turkey - the country will be torn to shreds in general!
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 13 June 2020 09: 24 New
        0
        In that region it’s not at all calm ... after all, active fuss is going on around the dam !!!
        Countries, as advanced guys in the third world like to call them ???
        Everyone has enough problems, but there are also arsonists from the outside! So not long and blaze!
  3. steelmaker
    steelmaker 13 June 2020 09: 24 New
    +5
    And the marshal is dressed up! Ponte more than military education. Profukal all that he had. And it costs us with such a de .... deal to have?
  4. nikvic46
    nikvic46 13 June 2020 09: 38 New
    0
    There are no good goals for foreigners. Just the smell of oil.
    1. New Year day
      New Year day 13 June 2020 10: 03 New
      10
      Quote: nikvic46
      Just the smell of oil.

      ... gas!
      Huge gas reserves were discovered there, which Turkey will develop with the prospect of deliveries to Europe
  5. APASUS
    APASUS 13 June 2020 09: 42 New
    0
    The revival of the IG * is definitely not needed by anyone and in any form, including the United States, which so far has approved and supported the actions of Turkey.

    Is it not the second Saddam Hussein, the Americans are trying to grow from Erdogan? And then they will overthrow him with triumph
    1. Smirnoff
      Smirnoff 13 June 2020 10: 53 New
      +2
      Is it not the second Saddam Hussein, the Americans are trying to grow from Erdogan? And then they will overthrow him with triumph

      It may very well be. In the meantime, they look at his eccentricities through the fingers, because they are in the hands of trouble in the region.
      1. Gorecc
        Gorecc 13 June 2020 13: 41 New
        +2
        since when is a country and its leader defending its national interests - is this called eccentricity?
        Libya for Turkey as the CIS for Russia, or do you also think that the policy of Russia in the post-Soviet space is a miracle? or is it still upholding their national interests? You may be surprised, but not only Russia or the United States have national interests)
        In addition, let's not forget that the Turks began to actively intervene in the conflict in Libya only after other countries began to do so first supporting Haftar, then the Turks joined in to balance the situation .. Fortunately, the Turks do not carry out carpet bombing in Libya, so I personally do not mind that they pile on the presumptuous generalissimum Haftar and his foreign sponsors smile
        1. Usher
          Usher 14 June 2020 21: 57 New
          0
          Only Erdogan plays dirty. Supports international terrorists.
        2. Usher
          Usher 14 June 2020 21: 58 New
          0
          If your beloved IS with the help of the Turks made a terrorist attack in Tunisia or Egypt, where would our citizens die, would you look?
    2. DED_peer_DED
      DED_peer_DED 13 June 2020 11: 56 New
      -2
      Quote: APASUS
      And then they will overthrow him with triumph

      Alien hands. Those. - ours.
      This cabal will weaken both sides, which is what the states are trying to achieve.
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 13 June 2020 09: 56 New
    +1
    The adopted child of the EU-PNS, found another adoptive parent - Turkey ... Haftar, for a long time went to the "homeless" in the courtyards, fed, kind people ... But it looks like they want to adopt him too ... And the big board of trustees in thought .. ...
    1. donavi49
      donavi49 13 June 2020 11: 00 New
      +4
      March-April 2019:
      PNS and Dawn complete the citizen inside the citizen. All the Islamists were unwound, and those who did not unwind, repainted in moderation. Turkey has not yet helped them. Italy has not really helped them. Plus a citizen, inside a citizen.

      Haftar actively using shock UAVs from the UAE, 152 and 155mm adjustable shells from the UAE, Javelins from the UAE, various light weapons (LNG, machine guns, memory) from Egypt. MiGi21 from Egypt - went to Tripoli.

      A summer assault, he rode the PNSnikam in a dishonest battle, just from his side. For he had everything and an advantage in l / s, and the Sudanese, and technical superiority, but the slippers on Toyotas unwound his army in June 2019. And even the State Department forced to make excuses, who even seemed to initiate an investigation into how our Javelins fell into their hands Haftaru.





      Turks will come to the PNS in 3 months, and essentially with tourists-vacationers in general by the end of October.
      1. CSKA
        CSKA 15 June 2020 11: 17 New
        0
        Question to you. Personally, in this conflict I sympathize a little with Haftar, because of his good attitude to the Russian Federation, of course we don’t need to intervene there, only selling weapons. but here I can’t understand where such strong support for the PNS comes from?
  7. really
    really 13 June 2020 10: 05 New
    +2
    After a strong and cruel leader, disintegration and civil strife usually follow, since there is no system for transferring power in a non-violent way.
  8. New Year day
    New Year day 13 June 2020 10: 11 New
    +8
    Turkey needs control of the adjacent sea waters of Libya to block a possible rerouting of the Eastmed (Eastern Mediterranean) gas pipeline, as Turkey has laid a "paw" on the Mediterranean gas field

    Attempts by Greece, Cyprus and Israel to bypass the "new territories" of Turkey will collide with Turkey in Libya
  9. knn54
    knn54 13 June 2020 10: 56 New
    +2
    Somalization / sudanolization is in full swing.
  10. alone
    alone 13 June 2020 11: 00 New
    +3
    There’s such a story ... while Havtar was at the gate of Tripoli, he rejected the idea of ​​a truce .. Remember the Moscow demarche? He demonstratively left without signing the agreement that Saraj signed .. In diplomatic language, this is disrespect for the organizer .. Because the one who plans this meeting, already knows in advance that the parties will sign this or that document .. Havtar gave the floor to sign, but did not do it .. Saraj can go and a truce, but not Havtar .. He must already be removed from Libya .. Let him go back to the United States whose citizen he is, and in return he has someone to sign an agreement .. For example, the chairman of the House of Representatives of Libya is quite a political figure ..
  11. nobody111body
    nobody111body 13 June 2020 11: 12 New
    -5
    the usa supports the Turks, but Israel does not support them-the master breach; the only more or less enemy of Turkey is Greece; and the Egyptian army was bought by Israel in the bud and it buit "to fight" with the Turks - laughter; transfer to the border with Libya to clamp Haftar on both sides; well, and the "reef" deposit will certainly develop the current Erdogan - where did he get so much dough from? Jews contradict themselves; Well, if Haftar is a "citizen" of the United States, then why then this very Saraj is supported by a handful of American Jews - pathological greed
    1. Nikanet
      Nikanet 13 June 2020 21: 44 New
      +1
      Your Greece lives on the handouts of the EU, and Turkey can teach the Greeks such a lesson that even swimming in the sea they will not risk it as it was before. And with the Jews, the Turks are doing fine. Materiel pull would not hurt.
  12. Yury Siritsky
    Yury Siritsky 13 June 2020 11: 23 New
    0
    Here. Well, what they lacked. Crazy !!
  13. Karaul73
    Karaul73 13 June 2020 12: 07 New
    -1
    Does the author really believe that Turkey needs influence only in part of Libya? No, Turkey wants Libya all with giblets. Therefore, Haftar will have to go through very difficult times in the future. And everything will end there only with the complete victory of one of the participants in the conflict.
    1. Nikanet
      Nikanet 13 June 2020 21: 47 New
      +2
      Undoubtedly. Correctly emphasized. Tomorrow Lavrov and Shoigu fly to Istanbul. Soon we will witness interesting events. The lull in Syria may be interrupted.
  14. camo ridges
    camo ridges 13 June 2020 12: 34 New
    -7
    Since Haftar is absolutely not adapted to effective
    command of the armed forces at any level, Russia
    need to find a reason for more effective intervention
    in Libyan fighting events. Egypt could be good
    an assistant in this escalation, putting forward relevant ideas,
    for there is no disagreement between our countries on this issue. AND
    if our aviation begins to restore order in Syrian
    scenario, the Turks will not have any chances. Even if they scream
    American rescuers. Another thing that bring to full
    the collapse of Saraj and his associates is unlikely to allow all sorts of
    stakeholders inclined to fish
    in troubled waters, for it is simply unrealistic to comply with the interests of all.
    But, even in an eternally suspended state, the situation in Libya
    while in the hands of Russia ....
    1. Gorecc
      Gorecc 13 June 2020 13: 50 New
      11
      why should Russia also interfere in the civil war in Libya? again a war with terrorists on the "distant approaches"? "at the invitation of the legitimate government" will not work, this niche in Libya has already been hammered by the Turks))
      so what other reason does Russia have to intervene in the civil war in Libya? maybe there oppress the Russian-speaking population?)
      something else doesn’t even come to mind, how would it be possible to justify the military intervention of Russia in Libya ... well, except perhaps to drop all the masks and openly declare that we also want to put our paw on the oil and gas divide in Libya, but this is completely different story smile
      1. Oquzyurd
        Oquzyurd 13 June 2020 21: 37 New
        +3
        On the internet, they say that the French company "Total" bought 6 military helicopters somewhere and presented it to Khavtar. Not only countries, but their oil companies are trying hard.)
      2. Nikanet
        Nikanet 13 June 2020 21: 50 New
        0
        Lavrov and Shoigu will fly to Istanbul tomorrow to ask the Turks for consent for bases in Jufra and Sirte. I do not think that the Turks will agree. The likelihood of renewing the database in Syria is growing.
        1. Okolotochny
          Okolotochny 19 June 2020 13: 26 New
          -2
          Lavrov and Shoigu fly to Istanbul tomorrow to ask the Turks for consent for bases in Jufra and Sirte

          Do you work as an assistant to both Lavrov and Shoigu?
  15. Malkin Alexey
    Malkin Alexey 13 June 2020 13: 26 New
    -1
    Khavtar is just a loser and in life, having to the teeth an armed army with MLRS Grad, D-30 howitzers, BMP-1 and T-55 tanks, in 1986 he was crushed into smoke and fluff by Chadian rebels in Tayet light jeeps with ATGM and DShK ... Khavtar himself was then taken prisoner by the rebels of Habré, while in captivity he hailed Russian weapons and the father of his Colonel Gaddafi. After returning from captivity, he fled to the West and again hayal Gaddafi, and after his death proclaimed saby his follower ... ..or they thought that Saraj is just the same, so let Marshal win - the title that he assigned to himself, under Gaddafi he was a colonel ... A worthless country with worthless rulers, but very rich in oil ..... everything will be decided there between Russia, oddly enough, and Turkey. The European Union with France, Italy and Greece and Cyprus will not be able to stop Erdogan ...... Only Russia, having broken Turkey's teeth in Idlib and am beyond Euphrates, is capable of taking the situation under full control with its VKS and marines ..... Egypt will only get into the war itself will disintegrate into a number of caliphates, there has been an internal war with the "Muslim brothers" for more than 20 years. Let the Russians in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense often listen to the programs of Vladimir Solovyov where Bagdasarov and Kedni perform - these comrades are not lying ... they would have turned the whole rotten liver of Khavtar right on the wrong side ... and before getting involved in something, let the political and economic guarantees, like in Syria oil for years and military bases ..... For thanks and for the prospect of "donkey ears" let Erdogash fight!
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Tavrik
      Tavrik 13 June 2020 22: 23 New
      +2
      Only Russia, having broken Turkey’s teeth in Idlib and am behind Efrat, is capable of taking full control of the situation with its airborne forces and marines

      Why take control? How to supply our group when the straits are under the control of a likely enemy?
  16. Vlad Malkin
    Vlad Malkin 13 June 2020 15: 53 New
    0
    For a long time it was necessary to replace the old marshal with a young colonel! But where to get it, this young colonel?
  17. Oleg Zorin
    Oleg Zorin 13 June 2020 16: 50 New
    +1
    Quote: Malkin Alexey
    Let Russian comrades in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense listen more often to the programs of Vladimir Solovyov where Bagdasarov and Kedni appear - these comrades do not lie.

    Are you specially registered here today to record this nonsense?
  18. Serhio Dias_2
    Serhio Dias_2 14 June 2020 04: 57 New
    +2
    Greeks militarily no one and call them nothing. Egypt will be an order of magnitude more powerful.
    The Turks will not yield anything to anyone there. They already felt the taste of victory and stop their imperial habits. Ala, the Ottoman Empire is no longer possible in Syria or in Libya.
    1. Allax
      Allax 14 June 2020 19: 57 New
      +1
      Well, about Syria, you are bent! So far, on the contrary, Turkey has been pumping its fighters out of Syrian Idlib, giving us and the Syrians more opportunities to take control of the rebel region.
      What will happen in Libya, I can not judge. But if indeed the coalition France-Egypt-Greece-UAE will gather on the side of Haftar, then the Turks will get bogged down in that war for a long time
  19. Sancho_SP
    Sancho_SP 15 June 2020 08: 36 New
    +1
    Libya has shown that Russia has run out of resources for implementing foreign policy. The bargaining stage has gone.
  20. iouris
    iouris 15 June 2020 11: 27 New
    0
    Should say "reflections". What is the point of thinking if the sides and their true goals are not identified. It is time to assess the medium and long-term consequences of Libya's transition to Turkish control.
  21. Campanella
    Campanella 16 June 2020 01: 07 New
    0
    What can I say, neither Turkey nor another country will resolve the conflict in their favor, these swings for a long time. So Faiz Saraj rejoices in vain.