Yes, from the very first line: this is an alternative version of what could happen. The basis for it was the ambitions of the participants and their opportunities, but in general it is nothing more than entertainment for the mind from the cycle “It could have been so.”
By popular demand of readers, so to speak. Do not quite understand the essence previous article about Hitler and his political mistakes.
1. Could it be like that?
Could it be that the Soviet Union and Germany did not agree in a war, but vice versa? Under certain conditions, yes.
Historically, Germany and Russia were not exactly friends, but the Germans delivered empresses to us systematically and regularly. Yes, in 1917 this business was stopped, but in Germany itself, as it were, a little of everything ... was democratized.
But even with democratized Germans we were able to make friends. Yes, Hitler dismissed this case, but in the end, who is his doctor? In general, of course, a doctor was needed, for dreams of world domination by dreams, and resource bases - by resources and people. And without them, you can’t build a world-class empire.
Hitler really wanted to conquer the whole world, build his Third Reich on half a planet, and so on. Today you can shrug, but: the starting resource, as it were.
2. Who and where?
In general, if you look right, then Germany and the Third Reich are not the same thing. These are generally two different differences, if only because if you believe the German historian Burkhardt Müller-Hildebrandt ("German Army in 1939-1945", EKSMO publishing house, Moscow, 2002), and we have no reason not to believe him, then on the page 700 of his work is: “The population of Germany in 1939 amounted to 80,6 million people” ...
Germany. Although this already includes Austria (6,76 million people), Saarland (0,8 million people) and the Sudetenland (3,64 million people).
And the Reich, the Reich of the 1941 model - we still ply Danzig and Memel (0,54 million people), Poznan and Upper Silesia (9,63 million people), Luxembourg, Alsace and Lorraine (2,2 million people).
Total - about 92 million people. For an even account - 90 million. And this, I emphasize boldly, we are talking only about the Germans, who could be called up to the Wehrmacht. And yes, I do not take into account the governor-general of Poland and the imperial protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, where not only were there many Germans, they were easily called upon throughout the war.
Enough. 90 million people. With minerals, it’s frankly not very, but the excellent industrial base of Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland (and in the future also France).
And if you prove the magnificent resource base of the USSR and 190 million people? Can I take the risk and implement the idea of world domination?
Can. But there are two ways. The first is the path of conquest, which, in fact, was chosen in Germany. With the corresponding result. The second is the path of agreement. More productive and less costly.
3. How and with whom to negotiate?
Yes, this is the most interesting question. A lot of fans from the alternative make the main mistake: they begin to talk about "And if Stalin had agreed with Hitler."
I would not agree. Firstly, Stalin had a good idea that there was his German opponent. And he didn’t especially build illusions, that’s why even if he really wanted to, he couldn’t find ANY document that had the signatures of Stalin and Hitler.
That says a lot. It would be difficult to negotiate with Hitler in general, because he had on his agenda the Third Reich in all its glory, and even with the theory of racial purity. Lenin’s pupil, who was clearly Stalin, all of this clearly disgusted. Yes, to build communism in their own country, yes, to bring communism to other peoples of the world — that was normal for Stalin. But here is the theory of "racial purity" in the multinational USSR ...
And here many will say that everything, this can end. It was unrealistic to agree, and so it happened.
It was unrealistic to agree with Hitler. But what, besides him, in the 90 millionth Germany there were no more people? It’s impossible to find one or two presidential candidates in Russia’s 146 millionth today, but in Germany there were people of such a flight.
It is no secret that in his entire life 16 attempts were made on Hitler. You know, this only says that, firstly, the Führer was lucky in full, and secondly, amateurs worked. If any NORMAL intelligence service of that time would have taken up the matter, cremation would have taken place much earlier. Who does not believe, let him ask Trotsky, Arutyunov / Agabekov, Bandera ...
And here the question arises: why not for the sake of Germany to beat Adolf Aloizovich a little earlier? Well, or for the sake of building peace and communism on Earth ... Given the fact that the Fuhrer does not turn his tongue into a coward, this is also a fact, he really neglected the guard, so eliminating it would not be difficult for professionals to eliminate it.
What next? And then, oddly enough, in Germany there were people with whom we could negotiate and make plans for the future.
Of course, Hitler's first assistant and secretary of Hess would hardly have suited this role. As well as Bormann, who was far from ideal politician. Let's just say that of the first ten, or rather, the five, Goering would be the best fit.
Although German possessed the badge of party No. 23, he was, to put it mildly, far from the jumps in terms of racial purity. But in fact, the only one from the party elite who was not fixated on this. Pretty indicative phrase: "In my ministry, I decide who my Jew is."
Let's just say a piece that could play. You can offer several more candidates, but the essence will be the same: a person should be sane, understand what is happening and see this perspective.
And to say that Molotov or Malenkov could adequately speak on behalf of the USSR, if Stalin himself did not consider it effective for himself ... Although in general Molotov should have signed such papers as agreements on friendship, non-aggression and the like.
So there was someone to agree on both sides. The question is, what next?
4. And what next?
And then we get that we need to sit down at the negotiating table and deal with sentences. Sentences in the first place of the world imperialist system, which no party would definitely object to. Germany, from which they drank all the blood following the results of the First World War, and the Soviet Union, which, as it were, was not a supporter of the capitalist platform.
That is, both countries had against whom to be friends. Against the "winners" who are a little of that ... plump. It is clear that this refers to the United Kingdom and the United States, which not only had a good rap from that war, they also had their own views on the future.
So, “Lebensraum” for Germany (and it would be nice to return the captured colonies) and new peoples to the USSR family that was friendly at that time.
If you look at the data 22.06.1941/XNUMX/XNUMX, you get a picture that is very impressive. Eastern front.
154 German divisions.
42 divisions of all these German "allies".
186 divisions of the western districts of the USSR.
Remember the "Axis countries": Germany, Japan and Italy? Here it is for sure that the Italians "did not shine." Yes, they had a good one, oh, they had a very decent fleet, but ... with Italian crews. The Italians sat in tanks, and on planes. That is, very below average, which the war showed in all its glory.
And right there:
51th division of the Japanese imperial army.
68 Soviet divisions in the Far East.
In general, at that time we had a total of 303 divisions in the Red Army. And in the Wehrmacht - 208. Total 500 and 600 with all these Italians, French, Hungarians, Romanians and Finns. The Japanese - this is serious. They then increased their army by five times simply at the click of the emperor’s fingers.
But in the end, 500 divisions.
And a new union: Germany - Soviet Union - Japan.
The rest, Hungary, Romania, Italy, Finland, - at the dancers.
Moreover, all of Europe is already behind the Germans. The inhabited part of China is with the Japanese.
And here the fun begins. Because the Second World War is already underway and something needs to be done with all this.
5. We have to go ... south!
Immediately, we note the most important thing - even with so many people, tanks, guns, mortars, nothing can be done with Britain. The landing operation against this country could be carried out only in the wildest dreams.
English Channel, you see ...
And the fleets of our union are very so-so. I wrote about the Soviet one, there was nothing particularly valuable there, except for 7 light cruisers of “Project 26”, 59 destroyers and 200 submarines. So here, the boats, perhaps.
We know about the German fleet. 1 battleship (Bismarck by that time was already all), 2 half-battleships (Scharnhorst and Gneisenau), 5 heavy and 6 light cruisers. 22 destroyers and 57 submarines. Well, the reserve for the production of submarines was simply amazing, the Germans riveted more than a thousand for the war.
The Italian fleet ... 4 battleships, 6 heavy and 14 light cruisers. 130 destroyers. Yes, the numbers are confident, but I repeat, Italian ships.
The British fleet consisted of 15 battleships, 15 heavy and 49 light cruisers, 158 destroyers and 68 submarines. And 6 aircraft carriers.
That is, British metal would demolish any landing operation from the sea.
I am silent about the Japanese fleet on purpose: although it was magnificent in essence, the US fleet loomed behind it, which in numbers was no worse. The Yankees had 5 battleships and 100 destroyers, so there was a pure containment issue.
Well, the British will stay on the islands.
So, you need to go where you can implement such a huge army. South.
Here we have the political map of 1940. American, so forgive them Mongolia as part of the USSR. The perspective is interesting.
From this perspective, it is clear that Japan has begun the process, Manzhou-go is already on the map without problems, and vice versa, Xinjiang and Tibet have not yet reached China. There is no Pakistan that the British will single out only after the war and so on.
What do we see?
We see a chain of British colonies and protectorates. India, Afghanistan, Iran and so on up to Egypt. Each of the colonies supplied the metropolis with something, for it was precisely at the expense of the empire's colonies that they lived at all times.
And here is another drawing. Map of the railways of the USSR. And from this map it becomes clear and understandable that it was not very difficult for us to transfer a certain number of divisions to the south, closer to the borders of Iran and India, even in those times. Sorry, in 1941, they were transferred from the Far East, and in 1945, back.
Plus, in the region of Turkey, which has always been oriented to Germany. But as the practice of the First World War showed, the Turks were not very eager for battle, remembering the British possibilities.
But with the presence of the Soviet Union in the region ... Yes, with ambition ...
So, look at the map.
Germany. Since the whole of Europe has been captured, there is really nothing to do there. Alternatively, North Africa, that is, Arabian oil and the Suez Canal, the control of which is a very useful thing.
But instead of the miserable corps of Africa, which was an infantry and tank division with support units, it was quite possible to send to Africa the number of troops that would be needed to take control of the north of the African continent.
Let's just say that 10-15 full-fledged divisions with lubricants from the Italian units would quite normally have done what two Rommel divisions could not. Although Rommel worked wonders with so many troops.
And given the fact that the Luftwaffe had to arrange a blitzkrieg on the Eastern Front, only seagulls would fly freely in the Mediterranean Sea. And even with an eye on German planes.
A very useful action would be the “squeeze” of General Franco, followed by the blockade and capture of Gibraltar. After that, the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea would be under German control, and the delivery of troops to Africa would become very simple and calm.
And the capture of French Morocco (the city of Ceuta specifically) would have generally closed the British entrance to the Mediterranean Sea.
Could this be done with a reserve of 100 divisions? Yes easily.
6. To each - his own
Soviet Union. We clearly began Persian dances, that is, Iran was on the agenda, initially oriented, like Turkey, to Germany.
Given that the possibility of deploying troops over great distances was and was used, there is not even any doubt that friendly assistance to Iran against the British colonialists was as successful as the occupation of this country in 1941.
On August 25, 1941, troops of the 44th Army under the command of Major General A. A. Khadeev and 47th Army under the command of Major General V.V. Novikov entered Iranian territory. On August 27, troops of the Central Asian military district crossed the Soviet-Iranian border from the Caspian Sea to Zulfagar. This operation was carried out by the 53rd Separate Central Asian Army, led by the commander of the district, Lieutenant General S. G. Trofimenko. On August 31, in the Iranian Astarta area, a landing was part of the 105th Mountain Rifle Regiment and the artillery division of the 77th Mountain Rifle Division. Soviet gunboats entered the ports of Pahlavi, Noushehr, Bendershah. In total, over 2,5 thousand paratroopers were transported and landed.
We introduced about 30 thousand people to Iran. The British are about the same from Syria. Attention, the question is: what could prevent the increase in the figure from 30 to 50 thousand, so that the British soldiers did not even rock the boat?
Given that it was really easy to organize the transfer not only by land, but also by the Caspian Sea, Iran would very quickly and easily become a springboard for a further attack on Iraq and Syria. In addition, Turkey has always had warm oil feelings for Syria, which, I am sure, in this situation, it would have simply rushed into the battle against the British.
The result could be a meeting. But not on the Elbe, but somewhere in the sands of the Arabian Peninsula. The Germans and Italians on the one hand, ours on the other.
Farther. Next is a huge enclave, India and Afghanistan. A suitcase without a handle, uncomfortable and heavy. Given that even the British could not restore order there, a dubious acquisition, to be honest.
But given that the population of India simply adored their colonialists, I think that a year of work in the sweat of the face of Abwehr specialists in India would not be just a “fifth column”, it would flare up in full.
The only question is the need. One could make a protectorate on the principle of Bohemia. Only bigger and more stupid.
Japan. Well, who wouldn’t have to strain at all. Moreover, I’m sure that the Japanese would not even change plans. And in the same way, they would have captured all the French and Dutch colonies in Indochina and went to conquer Australia.
The British would hardly be able to defend their colonies. Too many forces would have to be confronted with Europe, both in terms of repelling the hypothetical landing operation of the Axis on the islands, and in the fight against the blockade, which would certainly have been organized by ours and the Germans, fortunately, there were enough forces. Underwater blockade, of course.
So the whole question is how the United States would behave. And in our case, I’m sure they would continue to be neutral or at best help the British. Lend-lease and all that. If the Japanese had plowed the plague like Pearl Harbor, yes, perhaps the Americans would go to war for their bases and colonies. But let's say so, without fanaticism.
To fight at sea with Japan was quite possible. And, I think, it would end in a draw, because the Japanese would receive a powerful feed from the Allies. More precisely, from an ally. And in this case, it is unlikely that the Americans could quickly unscrew the head of the Japanese. If at all, they could, since dying for an idea in America is somehow not accepted. Or for others to die.
7. The logical ending
As a result, by 1943, the following picture could be quite normal: ALL Eurasia and part of Africa would belong to the countries of the Axis Berlin - Moscow - Tokyo.
The British would sooner or later capitulate anyway, because hunger is not an aunt, and it is not so easy to establish supplies in the conditions of a severe blockade. And she would be. And not only marine. It is unlikely that the entire fleet of the metropolis would venture far away from the home harbors of Scapa Flow, bristling with anti-aircraft gun trunks, knowing that the ships would be happy to accept not only the Luftwaffe paired units, but also the deployed air forces of the Red Army. And here everything is simple: no matter how luxurious Spitfires are, forgive me if there are 6-7 Messerschmitts, Yakovlevs and shopkeepers per British fighter, what will happen? That's right, beating.
And the United States ... And what about the United States? And they would sit overseas, then the gentlemen of the Rothschilds and others would send parliamentarians, and that’s all. A tender fierce friendship would begin. Loans for development, conquest and arrangement of new lands and so on.
The world would still remain multipolar, not a fact. That everything would be as sad as it might seem at first glance.
Yes, the Japanese in their territories would arrange this ... Yes, in fact, they did. But you know, what's the difference, who will arrange the genocide: Japanese, French or American? The wars in Indochina after the Second World War, performed by the French, showed this very clearly.
Was there a difference, say, to a Vietnamese, from the fact that a Japanese bullet hit him. And not French?
I think no difference.
The Germans would arrange a united Europe. Like today, but with the difference that in their Europe the first person would be a German, not an Arab, as in our time. Given Goering’s worldview versus Hitler’s, it’s unlikely that crematorium pipes would smoke across Europe.
On the contrary, most likely, it would not be up to them.
And our country would calmly begin to develop new territories, since there was also something to master there. Of course, building socialism on such an area as the Iranian SSR, Iraqi SSR, the Syrian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, the Xinjiang and Tibet Autonomous Republics is a complex and slow task, but they would most likely have been mastered.
The question would remain only in concessionary use of the rest of Africa. And the possible development of South America, however, is more a question for the Germans, who had very good contacts there.
Yes, it's time to say that история doesn't have there ...
No, the conclusion will be somewhat different.
All the fun would start later. Not even when you would have to divide the conquered and the gained and redraw the world map. And then, when such a magnificent triumvirate would fall apart, it does not matter for what reason. What would have broken up is beyond doubt, the components are too different. Too different goals and ways to achieve them.
And one more thing: as the whole history of the XNUMXth and XNUMXst centuries has shown, we never knew how to choose allies and friends for ourselves.