Military Review

What can we expect from a strong ruble

82

Head of VTB Andrei Kostin - perhaps the most “peppy” of Russian bankers


Who is responsible for the course


As of June 4, the US dollar depreciated to 68 rubles 62 kopecks. If you have not forgotten yet, in March, the ruble collapsed at a rate of more than 10 percent in a few days. At that time, almost 80 “wooden” ones were given for the dollar, and 85 for the euro. Which, however, did not stimulate the citizens too much to discount or buy up the currency.

The optimists, seated in the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, then were not too confident in declaring that all this was temporary, pessimists and on-duty critics of the liberal-economic bloc immediately voiced about the dollar exchange rate of 200 rubles. What can not disagree with the latter is that when the economy is almost entirely dependent on the foreign exchange rate, this under no circumstances can be considered normal.

But for the first time, only the default of twenty years ago helped citizens of modern Russia understand this. However, it was precisely after the default that settlements in cheaper rubles became not just more profitable, for many years ahead they became the norm. Oddly enough, the blows to the ruble exchange rate caused by the crises of 2008 and 2014, as well as sanctions, the country's economy experienced much harder.

But the pandemic and quarantine, which turned into tough measures to close the economy, first hooked the ruble. However, the main reason for the depreciation of the national currency was then considered by all to be the massive failure of the oil market. Now slowly but surely more expensive oil seems to be contributing to the growth of the Russian ruble.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia claims that unprecedented measures to limit uncontrolled cash injections into the economy are working in favor of a strong ruble. Admittedly, it is even good that two months of self-isolation almost completely saved the general public from worries about the ruble exchange rate. Now for people, stable prices are much more important.

But the strengthening of the ruble that we have been observing over the past weeks may well turn out to be a negative factor in terms of inflation. The fact is that it is accompanied by a significant increase in the money supply, which takes place contrary to all the statements of the financial regulator.

Despite all the difficulties that the recipients of anti-crisis amounts have, they are literally growing by leaps and bounds. We will not understand here who in the end turns out to be the recipient of subsidies, loans and credits, we note the main thing: money goes to the economy, which was actually forced to slow down. And the money is big enough. The big question is what and how they will be used.

Credit fake


If someone is now really accumulating capital in anticipation of a global redistribution of property, this, of course, is very dangerous. Yes, in this way the process of concentration of capital continues in the hands of a very limited circle of individuals and business structures. In fact, we are talking about creeping monopolization, and monopoly, as classics have warned, is the death of the economy.

However, throwing huge anti-crisis amounts into the masses, which a significant part of the opposition still requires, is much more dangerous. Dangerous, by the way, and taking into account the strengthening ruble. A strong ruble is, of course, a clear sign of financial stability. It is a strong ruble that now helps to reduce credit interest, although the notorious 2 (only two!) Percent per annum is nothing more than a propaganda bluff or, as it is fashionable to say, fake.

Moreover, this is a fake even taking into account the fact that another two-plus percent of these two basic ones is being thrown by the state in the form of subsidizing a reduced credit rate. One of the leading and structure-forming banks in the country, VTB, through the mouth of his leader Andrei Kostin, is now very cheerfully reporting that he managed to make happy more than 5,5 thousand companies with salary loans totaling over 31 billion rubles.

No less vigorously A. Kostin also reported on the start of a lending campaign at 2% for the purpose of business recovery. According to him, “she is the most attractive, because this money can not be returned to the company if they do not reduce their numbers. Already on June 3, VTB approved more than a thousand applications for 20 billion rubles. ”

It is unlikely that anyone will accumulate all these amounts, but they will not respond to inflation and the growth of the exchange rate just because the whole supply of money is very quickly absorbed by the commodity supply, which, in fact, is still excessive. With the beginning of the functioning of retail trade and services, the situation will definitely not get much worse.

Most likely, from the point of view of inflation and exchange rates, it will become even better. A vibrant consumer market will begin to suck out money from our pockets even faster. But for a population that, over two months of quarantine, which is highly doubtful in every sense, has lost a lot of income, there is practically no use for a good ruble exchange rate.

It seems that the Russians are now almost not worried that most experts have missed the forecasts for May. Then they, for example, Dmitry Golubovsky, the author of the acclaimed book "The Conspiracy of Bankers" and Alexander Razuvaev from Alpari, did not wait at all for the start of an increase in oil prices. But the start of the "printing press race" in the United States and the European Union predicted exactly. And this turned out to be another factor in favor of the “raw” ruble.

Finally, at the turn of May-June, events in the United States also worked in favor of the ruble, where dozens of cities plunged into real anarchy. It is interesting that those same analysts who missed the oil, now can not understand why stock indexes are growing, and the first thing they worry about stock players.

But after all, protests in the United States and demonstrations in Europe will end sooner or later, and business activity will begin to recover today. It is exactly the same in Russia: mask shows can last indefinitely, but everything that someone really wanted to “squeeze” and most likely “squeeze” should work. Otherwise, no one will have money, and why was there anyway to arrange all this?

What can we expect from a strong ruble

... And what now experts will say


Airat Bagirov, an analyst at the expert analytical center of the Eurasian Commission, has no doubt that if positive decisions are made at the next OPEC + meetings, and all goes well, then the average annual price can be close to 40 dollars. And this is a definite positive for the Russian economy, which leads to a significant reduction in risks. It is not surprising that the ruble gained weight today. It should not cost more than 70 rubles today. And tomorrow too.

Natalia Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, recalls that already in the first decade of June meetings will be held within the framework of OPEC and OPEC +, and the decisions made there will affect the price of oil, and hence the exchange rates. The Russian authorities will continue to implement measures to support business, but the main risks of the summer will be a possible new wave of COVID-19 and an escalation of tension between China and the United States, including sanctions against Beijing. Milchakova predicts the dollar in June in the range of 69–74 rubles, and in July and August - 67–77 rubles. The euro, according to her forecast, will be traded in the region of 76–81 rubles in the first summer month, and then before the beginning of autumn - 75–85 rubles.

Dmitry Artemyev, an expert at Finversia, is convinced that given the great difficulties and the unprecedented emission of dollars and euros, the ruble has no choice but to strengthen further. But since the Russian economy does not really need it, the Central Bank actually has its hands untied for an additional issue. Obviously, therefore, such a bold program was launched as 2 percent per annum.

VTB's analytical department believes that our ruble is still somewhat underestimated. The situation with oil really dealt him a serious blow, but the Russian economy has a significant margin of safety and strong macroeconomic indicators, which are unique in our country. No other state has a state debt level of 14-15% of GDP. In addition, Russia managed not to squander the NWF either.

Even the currency strategists of the French bank Societe Generale formed a generally positive outlook on the currencies of developing countries, including the Russian ruble. Optimism about the creation of a vaccine against coronavirus, as well as tremendous fiscal and monetary stimulation around the world allows us to form a positive outlook on such currencies.

“This week, investors will probably begin to reduce the volume of short positions in the ruble, but so far the volume of shorts remains high, the prospect of their reduction allows us to expect that this will support the Russian currency,”

- assured analysts at Societe Generale.

Artyom Kopylov from Alfa Capital Management Company draws attention to the fact that such a factor as zeroing outbound tourism and corresponding demand for foreign currency works in favor of a strong ruble. This is especially important now, because last year he deducted about $ 25 billion from the current account.

Author:
Photos used:
picabu.ru, glavred.info
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 5 June 2020 04: 56 New
    21
    VTB's analytical department believes that our ruble is still somewhat underestimated.

    Analysts..add them ... how many times the ruble was trampled into the mud, sucking up the accumulations of ordinary citizens that I have not believed in him for a long time. It is necessary to monitor the actions of the Kremlin ... the fate of the ruble depends on its policies.
    News of the day belay
    Nikolai Platoshkin arrested on suspicion of fake distribution

    https://jpgazeta.ru/nikolaj-platoshkin-arestovan-po-podozreniyu-v-rasprostranenii-fejkov/?utm_source=politobzor.net
    1. Ross xnumx
      Ross xnumx 5 June 2020 05: 14 New
      +9
      Concerning:
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      News of the day belay

      then here in more detail:
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 5 June 2020 06: 37 New
        17
        But here the population, which in two months of quarantine, which is highly doubtful in every sense, lost a lot of income,t good ruble exchange rate practically no use.

        Just the pinnacle of analytical thought! Say, it’s bad for the population that the ruble began to strengthen and return back to its usual corridor 60-65 rubles / dollar! Question to the authors - why is it bad ?? Reveal your ingenious thought!

        Personally, I would be satisfied with the rate of 60 kopecks per dollar, as it was in the Union. Then really those who have a salary above 17 thousand would really be the middle class.
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 5 June 2020 06: 52 New
          +9
          Another question for the authors since they touched on this topic. And what will happen next with the ruble? Weather. Down or up?

          It would be interesting to know their expectations. Not in vain did they dig up so much material for the article. Surely there are thoughts on this topic. Yes, and analytics without a forecast, it looks rather weak.
          1. mark2
            mark2 5 June 2020 07: 53 New
            12
            The authors will not answer you.
            Since the time of Yegor Guboliky, Anatoly-Krasny Skalp and Grishka the Holy Fool, all ecohomists imagined themselves to be carriers of secret knowledge.
            Telling people clever, often foreign words, about all kinds of trends, they do not say anything. Like astrologers. A lot of words a lot of information but everything is empty.
            Recently it was bad that the buck is growing. Russia cannot buy cool imported goods, because, as everyone knows, from the lips of economists, that Russian is bad. Now the ruble is strengthening and bad again, because people are starting to prefer import, because economists said that imports are better. And this horror story - inflation may begin ...
            In short, economists do not know anything and do not understand anything, because economics is not a science, but the rules of the game, which are constantly violated by their creators.
            1. Stas157
              Stas157 5 June 2020 08: 00 New
              18
              Quote: mark2
              The authors will not answer you.

              Joke. An exchange analyst with a trading trader comes into the elevator. The trader looks up at him and says:
              “Well, at least now tell me specifically?” Up or down?
            2. ccsr
              ccsr 5 June 2020 11: 58 New
              +2
              Quote: mark2
              In short, economists do not know anything and do not understand anything, because economics is not a science, but the rules of the game, which are constantly violated by their creators.

              This was indirectly confirmed by the famous economist of Russian origin Leontiev, who is considered the creator of the economic miracle in the post-war period in different countries. At the end of his life, he admitted that the economy cannot be described by any laws in order to understand how it functions. As for us, he clearly expressed himself in the 80s:
              V. Leontiev at the beginning of the perestroika period of the 80s suggested that the Soviet leadership not rush to restart the economy of the USSR on the rails of a "liberal" economy.
              He believed that the economy should gradually switch to market conditions and that the state should lead it.
              Leontiev stopped trying to bring these thoughts to the Soviet leadership when he realized that the privatization mechanism had already been launched and that the whole huge state of the USSR was being sold right before our eyes and what huge states were being made by those who were at the helm of privatization
          2. Svarog
            Svarog 5 June 2020 08: 04 New
            +8
            Quote: Stas157
            Forecast. Down or up?

            I predict that as soon as the issue with zeroing is resolved, cutting down will crawl even if oil costs $ 40 ..
            1. Stas157
              Stas157 5 June 2020 08: 13 New
              11
              Quote: Svarog
              I predict that as soon as the issue with zeroing is resolved, cut down will crawl

              Yes, I think so too.hi There is no confidence in hardness to wood. Therefore, using the moment, I bought the day before yesterday at 68,29 dollars. Now I’m reading an article and I think: is it expensive or not?
              1. Svarog
                Svarog 5 June 2020 08: 17 New
                +4
                Quote: Stas157
                Therefore, seizing the moment I bought the day before yesterday at 68,29 dollars. And now I’m reading an article and I think: have you cheapened it or not?

                By the fall under 80 will be, wang)) hi
                1. Stas157
                  Stas157 5 June 2020 08: 35 New
                  +9
                  Quote: Svarog
                  By the fall under 80 will be, wang))

                  Well, today I’ll buy it again!)) Considering that the Euro / Dollar has flown up (the dollar is falling sharply against the Euro), the ruble will still please us with a price tag of 68 rubles. But you have to consider this is not the ruble strengthening, and the dollar devalues ​​(in relation to other currencies).
                  1. Stas157
                    Stas157 5 June 2020 10: 17 New
                    +8
                    Quote: Stas157
                    the ruble will still please us with a price tag in 68 rubles.

                    It turned out to be right!)) Today the dollar at the opening of trading is traded at a price of 68,7.
              2. Engineer
                Engineer 5 June 2020 10: 56 New
                +9
                Now I’m reading an article and I think: is it expensive or not?

                They did everything right. The dollar is noticeably sagging, you have to buy.
                As the brokers say: only censored is waiting for the best price.
          3. akunin
            akunin 5 June 2020 16: 16 New
            +2
            Quote: Stas157
            Down or up?

            the stump is clear - up, forward, further and further ... how much money did the budget not receive in 1 half of the year? and where to get them? Correctly - inflation (we wait from July 2). Liked the estimates of "experts"
            Milchakova predicts the dollar in June in the range of 69–74 rubles, and in July and August - 67–77 rubles. According to her forecast, the euro will be traded in the region of 76–81 rubles in the first summer month, and then before the beginning of autumn - 75–85 rubles.
            such a normal error of 15%.
        2. Vadim237
          Vadim237 5 June 2020 15: 18 New
          -2
          For this, the exchange rate of 60 kopecks against the dollar will not suit me and all other exporters - but for importers, such a rate of manna from heaven for their goods in Russia will never be like this again and a weak ruble is beneficial for this Russian economy.
        3. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 9 June 2020 14: 57 New
          0
          Quote: Stas157
          Personally, I would be happy with the rate of 60 cents per dollar

          And oil, for triangulation, how much should it cost in your system?
        4. Golovan Jack
          Golovan Jack 9 June 2020 15: 24 New
          -3
          Quote: Stas157
          Personally, I would be satisfied with the rate of 60 kopecks per dollar, as it was in the Union

          GYYYYY good laughing good

          Stasik, with the Union for a cash dollar (one) in your hands you would most likely crouch.

          By the way, the real (for the Farthes) course was around 4-5 rubles for green. This is so that you are not mistaken much and others are not mistaken ... a young man.

          Quote: Stas157
          Then really those who have a salary above 17 thousand would really be the middle class

          Tell me - then you would have had enough for Antalya ... a patriot ... UAZ ... damn it, I haven’t laughed like that for a long time laughing laughing
    2. Pilot
      Pilot 5 June 2020 06: 54 New
      +7
      Quote: The same Lech
      It is necessary to monitor the actions of the Kremlin ... the fate of the ruble depends on its policy.
      Why watch if there are all the same people with their stable ,, policy ,,. request There is no trust in the Kremlin, then there is no trust in the ruble! There is another option, the sucker is not a mammoth, the sucker will not die out. laughing
      .................................................. .................................................. ..................................................
      In tyrnete they write that Platoshkin was put under house arrest only. It seems that the home-grown police regime a little bit pushed such a prominent political figure into the cell, amid the tense situation in our country before the “voting”, and even the FSA is blazing from the police lawlessness as a visual aid ....
    3. Civil
      Civil 5 June 2020 07: 32 New
      +4
      Mikhail Leontyev:

      “The dollar, of course, will collapse. The dollar cannot fail. The dollar will collapse necessarily. Because collapse is the fate of all house of cards. The trouble is that a collapsed dollar will inevitably pull the whole global financial system. Russia with its dollarized economy will get "
      Magazine "Ogonyok" №20 dated 04.06.2003, p. 6

      - Why is the dollar more expensive?

      - This is the classic picture of a speculative bubble. Do you remember how oil went up - it was also an oil bubble.

      - Will the dollar crash?

      “In a matter of months, the fingers of one hand will be enough to show the time of inflation of this dollar bubble.” And I do not know what else can be inflated after the dollar bubble bursts.

      He is "Komsomolskaya Pravda" February 2009


      “The more monstrous the lie, the more willingly they believe in it,” as one “doctor” said.
      1. Lister
        Lister 5 June 2020 13: 07 New
        +4
        Quote: Civil
        In a matter of months, the fingers of one hand are enough to show the time of inflation of this dollar bubble. And I do not know what else can be inflated after the dollar bubble bursts.

        He is "Komsomolskaya Pravda" February 2009

        These are our analyte predictors bully
  2. Crowe
    Crowe 5 June 2020 04: 59 New
    19
    Head of VTB Andrei Kostin - perhaps the most “peppy” of Russian bankers

  3. Far B
    Far B 5 June 2020 04: 59 New
    18
    Yes, throwing even significant amounts into the economy is no disaster - if these amounts are provided with sufficient mass of goods. And they are provided. In addition, in today's Russia, a huge part of the allocated funds will be withdrawn in any way over the hill, do not go to the gypsy. Yes, and not so large amounts are allocated, if you look, so that the article, in fact, is written from scratch.
  4. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 5 June 2020 05: 03 New
    16
    What can we expect from a strong ruble

    wassat And where is this "strong ruble"? Sturdy The greasy faces of the bankers are visible, and the rest is just words. Who in a commodity-oriented export-oriented economy will a strong ruble appear?
    1. kepmor
      kepmor 5 June 2020 05: 56 New
      15
      I am sure that all these games with the "strong ruble" will end exactly after July 01, the day of popular approval for eternal reign ...
      there are few oil and gas dollars, the tax and customs treasury will be replenished much less ... the conclusion suggests itself - to bring down the "wooden" to the state of kamatosis ...
      in a word, everything is about the black chalk ...
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 5 June 2020 10: 23 New
        +4
        Quote: kepmor
        I am sure that all these games with a "strong ruble" will end exactly after July 01

        without a doubt! The question is, to what level? Almost all other experts consider - up to 100.
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 5 June 2020 15: 20 New
          -2
          These experts are puffy, no one listens to them except you.
          1. New Year day
            New Year day 5 June 2020 16: 31 New
            +3
            Quote: Vadim237
            These experts are puffy, no one listens to them except you.

            wait not long laughing
            We will see. how smart you are or not ..
        2. ccsr
          ccsr 5 June 2020 18: 20 New
          -1
          Quote: Silvestr
          Almost all other experts consider - up to 100.

          Well, if you believe them, then urgently sell your house or apartment, buy dollars with them and after July 1 your income at the current exchange rate is 68-69 rubles. and growth to 100 will give a capital gain of about 40-50%. What's stopping you from doing this, since you believe these "experts"?
        3. Sklendarka
          Sklendarka 5 June 2020 18: 32 New
          +2
          I don’t remember from whom, but I remembered the phrase: "... soon they will give in the face for a ruble ..."
          Do not judge strictly, neither did I come up.
      2. Tank jacket
        Tank jacket 10 June 2020 09: 46 New
        -1
        Zyyy wassat And when you are being treated by a dentist, do you need a new doctor every time, or rather a trainee? Question to all the pigs and liberoids ... Every time a new dentist is needed ??? wassat wassat wassat Or go to an experienced doctor? Why don't you feel sorry for the state? There Zelensky-clown ... So you want? Or a dog?
    2. Lister
      Lister 5 June 2020 13: 09 New
      +6
      Quote: ROSS 42
      And where is this "strong ruble"?

      In dreams ... But in reality, it does not exist, and with such an approach to the economy as it is now, it will not be.
    3. Volgar
      Volgar 5 June 2020 13: 34 New
      0
      Quote: ROSS 42
      The strong Fat faces of the bankers are visible, and the rest is just words.

      We have the same words everywhere. But there are almost no real cases.
    4. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 9 June 2020 15: 00 New
      -1
      Quote: ROSS 42
      And where is this "strong ruble"?

      the "stronger" the ruble, the cheaper Chinese goods .. Do we need it?
  5. Mordvin 3
    Mordvin 3 5 June 2020 05: 21 New
    21
    In, damn it, I ate a duckweed ....
    So the hunt with a brick ride.
    1. Alex66
      Alex66 5 June 2020 06: 41 New
      12
      Yes, he doesn’t have enough money for a personal trainer and nutritionist, he needs to increase his salary.
    2. alone
      alone 5 June 2020 17: 10 New
      +4
      Quote: Mordvin 3
      So the hunt with a brick ride.

      Try a cast-iron Skillet .. The brick is too small for such a diameter wassat
  6. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 5 June 2020 05: 25 New
    16
    a weak ruble is bad, a strong ruble is bad ... something always hurts a bad dancer ...
  7. Asad
    Asad 5 June 2020 05: 39 New
    +7
    Corridor 67/77! Take me to analytics, I can do it too!
  8. samarin1969
    samarin1969 5 June 2020 06: 15 New
    +7
    About 0,5 billion non-rubles from Kostin is a drop in the bucket.
    But the drying up of the withdrawal of currency by "tourists" from the country is essential. And business now has nothing special to "withdraw": exports have fallen, investors are in no hurry to leave the market. "Small" and "medium" do not have significant revenue to be translated into a "safe" currency.
    All these factors are situational.
    The budget for the 1st quarter had a surplus of insignificant 12 billion rubles. But "antivirus" injections in the second quarter are ten times more. Customs duties and taxes in the pre-crisis quarter are lower by 4-5% (according to the report of the Ministry of Finance). ...
    There will be inflation. Mrs. Nabiullina in word and deed refuses radical support of the course at the expense of reserves. It remains only to "smoothly" raise the rate in order to sell part of the egg-box "at a discount", say - at 80!
  9. Alex66
    Alex66 5 June 2020 06: 39 New
    18
    I remember when the dollar is less than 40 rubles. apples cost 30 rubles. cheese is 150 rubles, and now apples are more than 100, cheese is from 500. And here they say that a strong ruble is bad for the population, no, it's good. They are robbing us with a weak ruble, pulling money out of our pockets, only crooks are being planted for this, and Nabiulina and her colleagues are awarded.
    1. rocket757
      rocket757 5 June 2020 06: 52 New
      -1
      Ha, the green POP was worth it! there was such, I remember, gold, by the way 12 scars of grams ... since then we have not begun to live better!
      1. Mordvin 3
        Mordvin 3 5 June 2020 07: 09 New
        +2
        Quote: rocket757
        Ha, the green POP was worth it!

        I drank the last 20 bucks in the 98th year, exactly before the default, and I'm not at all upset about this.
        1. rocket757
          rocket757 5 June 2020 07: 24 New
          0
          No, I have coins, they are different ... but the green one remained, even from that time ... only it was COLORED IN HALF, was washed with some other FANTASY !!! that paint was corrosive! So sho "green" I have some kind of gray-brown-RASPBERRY laughing
    2. Linxs
      Linxs 5 June 2020 09: 49 New
      +3
      Quote: Alex66
      I remember when the dollar is less than 40 rubles. apples cost 30 rubles. cheese is 150 rubles, and now apples are more than 100, cheese is from 500. And here they say that a strong ruble is bad for the population, no, it's good. They are robbing us with a weak ruble, pulling money out of our pockets, only crooks are being planted for this, and Nabiulina and her colleagues are awarded.

      What are you saying?
      Here it is customary to write that prices rose by a couple of percent ...
      And you write from 30r to 100r .. from 100r to 500r ...
    3. VicktorVR
      VicktorVR 5 June 2020 11: 57 New
      +4
      It depends on what counts as apples and cheese. "Seasonal" apples in magnets / pentads / dixies of 90, Belebeevsky cheese at the grocery market 450. There are also 320, but it's scary to even pick it up.
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 5 June 2020 06: 49 New
    +2
    All these forecasts ... let them shove them in ... they themselves know where.
    In general, we are neither worse nor better, "stability" however.
    We don’t twitch, we protect our health, because you won’t buy it for any money ... all the more, we have nothing to twitch !!!
    1. depressant
      depressant 5 June 2020 10: 45 New
      +4
      Exactly, colleague! What can I expect from a strong ruble, the authors ask me. As always - his lack of my skinny wallet.
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 5 June 2020 11: 26 New
        +1
        Quote: depressant
        Exactly, colleague! What can I expect from a strong ruble, the authors ask me. As always - his lack of my skinny wallet.

        Exactly, exactly. The problem is not money, but its absence!
        the impression is that they want to scare our people with the Hedgehog !! and they are such cute, useful creatures ... we are not going to sit on hedgehogs, and even more so, take off our pants!
        1. depressant
          depressant 5 June 2020 14: 14 New
          +2
          I went shopping. Continuous abundance of commodities, there is no shortage yet. But as soon as the government gave the people a little money, the prices slowly, unobtrusively, moved up. So far, only for non-perishable "delights" - well, smoked sausages, for example, good cheeses. A wealthy person will buy without looking at the price. For other goods, in particular for hygienic and perishable goods, prices are the same and even slightly reduced. And wholesale warehouses, I have no doubt, are packed with any goods to the eyeballs.
          The merchant is squeezed by several circumstances, like the press. On the one hand, he is eager to raise prices because of the "extra" money thrown into the population - greed is oppressive (you can't take all the money - this is not about him). On the other hand, he is under pressure from the low purchasing power of the population, since very little money has been planted. There is also a third party - spoilage of products, going out of the shelf life. And the fourth is a political moment: I will raise prices before voting on the amendments, and some dangerous people may become interested and rummage through the business. And who is doing it flawlessly? No matter what happens!
          Following such considerations, retail, having overcome the initial panic, confidently withstood, withstood the self-isolation of customers.
          So it turns out that any small trader is a much stronger economist than members of the economic bloc of our government, whose merits are not rich in commodity abundance. Abundance is the only, still working and bloodless way that allows the political leadership of the country to control the pressure inside the boiler of popular life, already pretty gurgling with discontent. How long will the effort last? Provided that the economic adjuster is not fatty?
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 5 June 2020 14: 23 New
            +1
            There will not be enough reserves for a long time, because there is no way to name reserves, given the general poverty of the bulk of the population!
            In general, a reasonable forecast comes true ... it will be worse, but not significantly, for the majority of WORKERS.
            1. Moxolov
              Moxolov 5 June 2020 14: 41 New
              0
              Quote: rocket757
              There will not be enough reserves for a long time, because there is no way to name reserves, given the general poverty of the bulk of the population!
              In general, a reasonable forecast comes true ... it will be worse, but not significantly, for the majority of WORKERS.

              So yes .. They will keep a living wage level so that there is no revolution and unrest. (Except for Moscow and other large cities)
              But this is for the time being ..! The USSR then everyone remembers and how it was ..
              And even young people begin to understand this from the stories of their parents and grandfathers .. What was the time of the general start. Regardless of money and connections .. !!!
              A cook and a worker could manage the state if they went through all the steps of growth and selection in a huge state aimed at the well-being of the people, and not a handful of wealthy and powerful people ..
              So it goes !

              That's how we live...
              1. depressant
                depressant 5 June 2020 16: 46 New
                +2
                Yes, colleague Moxolov, piercing music, recognizable faces, all of it is a return to the truth from which they have left ...
                Once upon a time, a relatively young economist, Rem Belousov, was unable to insist on his vision of the economic councils, and they adopted the concept of Lieberman, which turned out to be inoperative in current realities. Since then, under the blows of political storms, everything has rolled downhill.
                With all my heart, I wish the son of Rem Belousov, the prudent vice-premier of the Russian government Andrei Belousov, to overcome the usual worthlessness of the government economic bloc, pull him out of eternal sleep, make him get out of his skin, but do it! Namely, to rise above oneself in the name of the country and raise the country. This will be a return to the truth. And if this happens, as good as the place will be this music, combining the pain of loss and the happiness of gaining sources.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 5 June 2020 07: 44 New
    +6
    And if you look at all these forecasts and conclusions more primitively, from a physiological point of view ... The head of the clan ... he ... has a ruble. Children are born, the clan increases, and as a result, an additional product appears through joint efforts. And the second option is with the head of the clan, the ruble is not worth it, it constantly falls and at the most crucial moment .. And he also turns to others to help in the production of the clan instead of him .. laughing
  12. Esaul
    Esaul 5 June 2020 08: 19 New
    +8
    I have a 2 question:
    1. Why is this fat hog still not in prison
    2. When, finally, will this talk about the fact that a cheap ruble is good for everyone cease? Good for exporters - yes, because they receive income in expensive currency, and spend cheap rubles. For ordinary people, a weak rate is always bad, because because of this, prices for almost everything rise, and export revenues do not reach them.
    1. New Year day
      New Year day 5 June 2020 10: 20 New
      +8
      Quote: Esaul
      1. Why is this fat hog still not in prison

      because the former Chekist, and their former does not happen.
      Quote: Esaul
      2. When, finally, will this talk about the fact that a cheap ruble is good for everyone cease?

      as long as the budget is envied by oil prices. Ie - always!
      It’s easier not to sell gold for the needs of the country, but to print rubles. Own factory - print how many hosh.
      1. ccsr
        ccsr 5 June 2020 12: 06 New
        +2
        Quote: Silvestr
        because the former Chekist, and their former does not happen.

        Well, do not fantasize "expert", Kostin did not even study in the "tower", how could he become a security officer or work in the KGB station at the consulate in Australia?
        In 1973, Kostin entered the Department of Foreign Economics of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. In university years, Kostin met with Sergey Dubinin, the future chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [3].
        In 1979, Kostin graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University with a degree in international economics and was appointed to work abroad at the USSR Consulate General in Australia (Sydney). The consulate was responsible for issuing visas, receiving a salary of 300 Australian dollars per month.
        1. Overlock
          Overlock 5 June 2020 17: 43 New
          +2
          Quote: ccsr
          Quote: Silvestr
          because the former Chekist, and their former does not happen.

          Well, do not fantasize "expert", Kostin did not even study in the "tower", how could he become a security officer or work in the KGB station at the consulate in Australia?
          In 1973, Kostin entered the Department of Foreign Economics of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. In university years, Kostin met with Sergey Dubinin, the future chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [3].
          In 1979, Kostin graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University with a degree in international economics and was appointed to work abroad at the USSR Consulate General in Australia (Sydney). The consulate was responsible for issuing visas, receiving a salary of 300 Australian dollars per month.

          He worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a consulate general in the Australian Sydney. From 1982 to 1985, he was secretary of the European Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the USSR.
          For five years he worked at the Soviet embassy in London.
          Do you want to say that people with such a track record did not work for the KGB?
          1. ccsr
            ccsr 5 June 2020 18: 15 New
            +2
            Quote: Overlock
            Do you want to say that people with such a track record did not work for the KGB?

            Not only I will say, but it was, because Kostin was not an employee of the KGB, who perform certain duties within the diplomatic structures. How do you imagine his work in a residency without training? Yes, he burns not only the entire residency, but also those who somehow work with us from the locals.
            1. Overlock
              Overlock 6 June 2020 20: 31 New
              +2
              Quote: ccsr
              How do you imagine his work in a residency without training?

              tell me, and Primakov, what kind of intelligence academy did you graduate from?
              And second, apart from the residency, there is no other way to collect information?
              1. ccsr
                ccsr 7 June 2020 12: 40 New
                0
                Quote: Overlock
                tell me, and Primakov, what kind of intelligence academy did you graduate from?

                And he was not a full-time KGB official; he has a purely Foreign Ministry career.
                Doctor of Economics (1969), professor (1972). Academician of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR (1979); corresponding member (1974). Laureate of the USSR State Prize (1980) and the State Prize of Russia (2014).

                Well, what for an academician to engage in work in the KGB, if these people already choose their own work.
                Quote: Overlock
                And second, apart from the residency, there is no other way to collect information?

                It was about the fact that Kostin was enlisted in the KGB, and this is a lie. In general, information can be collected without operatives using technical intelligence tools - now 95% of intelligence information comes from such tools.
    2. Volgar
      Volgar 5 June 2020 13: 30 New
      +4
      Quote: Esaul
      I have a 2 question:

      1.Because the head of VTB, that is, the "financial tycoon"
      2. Never.
    3. Malyuta
      Malyuta 5 June 2020 17: 54 New
      +2
      Quote: Esaul
      1. Why is this fat hog still not in prison

      Because he is each other's friends. hi
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. mikh-korsakov
    mikh-korsakov 5 June 2020 08: 53 New
    -1
    I read the article. I understood a little, but firmly convinced myself that an ass awaits Russia everywhere, even though you are a weak ruble, at least a strong ruble, everything is lost. I thought. And now, someone reputable will knock his fist on the table and announce - now and forever, the dollar exchange rate - 60 kopecks. It is interesting to know what will come of this. Well, of course - people with dollars in bags will run and scream - a disaster. Well, then. Of course, the world regulator will strictly indicate inconsistency with principles and laws. They will answer me, but no one wants to trade and make friends with us from this. But the owner of the hotel in Turkey will be crooked, but will give the price of all inclusive 50 rubles per day. And where would he be without the Russians. In Europe, it’s also cold without gas. Well, of course, the salary will be 200 r., But the price of a loaf of bread and half a liter of vodka will drop, otherwise who will buy the bread and vodka. But experts are in trouble. But it is so. Fantasies.
  15. New Year day
    New Year day 5 June 2020 10: 17 New
    +7
    whatever the analysts say, but it turns out that the ruble / dollar exchange rate is only growing
    And this despite the "growth" of the economy, oil prices and other nonsense
  16. asura
    asura 5 June 2020 11: 06 New
    +3
    Migrants take out billions of dollars of currency.
    1. Volgar
      Volgar 5 June 2020 13: 26 New
      +4
      The oligarchs export much more currency than migrants.
  17. Normal ok
    Normal ok 5 June 2020 12: 00 New
    +1

    If someone is now really accumulating capital in anticipation of a global redistribution of property, this, of course, is very dangerous. Yes, in this way the process of concentration of capital continues in the hands of a very limited circle of individuals and business structures.

    I'll tell you a story. In 1990, an acquaintance of mine, instructor of the RK Komsomol, got married. They did not want to live with the parents of one of the parties. What to do? The village council nearest to the regional center allocated them a plot. But where to get money for building a house? Then, the secretary of the RK party (his relative) told him: take the maximum possible loan from Oschadbank (this is the official name of the USSR Savings Bank in Ukraine from then until today). To the question: "how to give", he replied: in a couple of years you will not have to give! And so it happened, the Soviet rubles have sunk into oblivion. What is all this for? And besides, insider rules. Those who own the information own the world. And the rest partake of the consequences.
    PS. A separate issue, but no less delicate: if in the 90th year (long before the State Emergency Committee) already at the district committee level the parties knew how it would all end, then it turns out that the Union was sentenced much earlier.
  18. mi ah
    mi ah 5 June 2020 12: 26 New
    +2
    Negative cheat on gasoline. And the lack of a progressive bet on the rich. And everyone will benefit from the expensive ruble, except for the gang of the rich. When it comes to them that the main oil in the state is people. (I know the answer myself - never
  19. iouris
    iouris 5 June 2020 14: 04 New
    +1
    Market volatility always exceeds your available financial resources.
  20. Tektor
    Tektor 5 June 2020 14: 49 New
    0
    A strong ruble is contraindicated in the dollar economy. When any non-dollar economy is forced to export goods and services in order to earn dollars. But if the dollar falls, then the ruble must inevitably grow in order to defend its customs and economic zone. There is no other way than revaluing the ruble to create its own economic zone. Here you must not miss ...
  21. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim 5 June 2020 14: 58 New
    +2
    Quote: samarin1969
    About 0,5 billion non-rubles from Kostin is a drop in the bucket.

    You are completely wrong.
    He is a very generous and loving person!
    http://www.compromat.ru/page_40832.htm
    "Offshore gifts of VTB head Andrey Kostin to the leading" Russia-1 "Naila Asker-Zade
    House on Rublevka 1000 sq. m on an area of ​​0,5 hectares for 250 million rubles, a 62-meter yacht Sea & Us for $ 62 million and a Bombardier Global 6000 aircraft for $ 60 million "

    But we know that absolutely all facts (extracts from registers, legal, financial documents) are skillfully fabricated by the enemies of the Russian Federation.
    Do not fall for online fakes.
    Respect such people, they are a kind of braces of our society, the salt of the earth.
    1. iouris
      iouris 5 June 2020 17: 38 New
      +5
      Quote: Comrade Kim
      and loving person!

      Just this person clearly has a problem, otherwise why so many gifts (besides at the expense of the population)?
    2. Overlock
      Overlock 5 June 2020 17: 45 New
      +5
      Quote: Comrade Kim
      Quote: samarin1969
      About 0,5 billion non-rubles from Kostin is a drop in the bucket.

      You are completely wrong.
      He is a very generous and loving person!
      http://www.compromat.ru/page_40832.htm
      "Offshore gifts of VTB head Andrey Kostin to the leading" Russia-1 "Naila Asker-Zade
      House on Rublevka 1000 sq. m on an area of ​​0,5 hectares for 250 million rubles, a 62-meter yacht Sea & Us for $ 62 million and a Bombardier Global 6000 aircraft for $ 60 million "
      But we know that absolutely all facts (extracts from registers, legal, financial documents) are skillfully fabricated by the enemies of the Russian Federation.

      "Andrei Kostin is attentive to his reputation - so, the journalists of Kompromat Group consider his invisibility man-made: they argue that negative information about Andrei Leonidovich disappears from the network more often than usual, as if by a wave of some truly invisible hand. And he definitely has what to hide ... "
      https://www.infox.ru/news/271/197418-na-cej-karman-rabotaet-gosudarstvennyj-bank-vtb
  22. akunin
    akunin 5 June 2020 16: 00 New
    +1
    Admittedly, it is even good that two months of self-isolation almost completely saved the general public from worries about the ruble exchange rate. Now for people, stable prices are much more important.
    nonsense, the author go to "five", "magnet" - prices are slowly creeping up (we have the cheapest apples 110 rubles). I am a state employee and my salary grows only in the speeches of the president (in fact, it does not grow for 5 years). the author "minus" is bold.
    Milchakova predicts the dollar in June in the range of 69–74 rubles, and in July and August - 67–77 rubles. According to her forecast, the euro will be traded in the region of 76–81 rubles in the first summer month, and then before the beginning of autumn - 75–85 rubles.
    chickens should be counted after a plebescite, and now it’s a talking room, in the morning the oil has grown, and with it the dollar (why should it?)
  23. alone
    alone 5 June 2020 19: 44 New
    +1
    As long as the ruble and the price of oil are interconnected, waiting for the superhardness of the ruble is pointless.
    1. iouris
      iouris 7 June 2020 21: 13 New
      +1
      The bad news is that the price of gas is tied to the price of oil.
      1. alone
        alone 7 June 2020 21: 16 New
        0
        So we have to ruble then fall then rise. Gas has also fallen in price. And it also hits
        1. iouris
          iouris 7 June 2020 21: 20 New
          0
          The ruble fluctuates in accordance with the IMF general line.
  24. Tomich3
    Tomich3 5 June 2020 20: 41 New
    0
    I HZ, WE WITHOUT ANY ANALYTICS IN YOUR COMPANY, THAT WOULD BE WINTER ... OPA.
    1. iouris
      iouris 6 June 2020 00: 55 New
      0
      Why in the winter, you have not yet rebuilt there? And if you accelerate?
  25. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 9 June 2020 20: 07 New
    -1
    The Central Bank should lift the Gaidar ban on investments in rubles and limit currency speculation in dollars, as stated in the official documents of the Customs Union Glazyev, and for this Nabiullina became furious and asked to shut up Glazyev’s mouth. The official document is a weapon for the prosecutor's office and the accounting chamber ... Liberasts got excited ...
    And the liberals attacked Mikhalkov for the same reason, like Gref and Gates cannot be touched, and Zyuganov was connected to amendments to the colonial constitution (they say we are "communists" against), a walker to the US Embassy ...
  26. NordUral
    NordUral 10 June 2020 18: 46 New
    +1
    What can we expect from a strong ruble
    The question is rhetorical. With these, wait for a strong ruble, as a second coming. You can wait, but wait, the big question.