Oil industry predicts 'perfect storm'

Western analysts presented material saying that with the planned volume of investments in renewable energy sources, the situation on world energy markets in the coming years is unlikely to change in favor of “alternative” energy.

Experts at Rystad Energy, an analytical company, estimated that by 2025, investments in solar and wind energy projects in the world by major oil companies would amount to $ 17,5 billion. Most of this amount - about 10 billion dollars - falls on one company. This is Norwegian Equinor, which really wanted to diversify production. The remaining oil companies are clearly not going to invest heavily in alternative energy sources and prefer to profit from activities in the oil market.

Against this background, it is reported that the oil industry may expect an additional crisis. Analysts say that it can be associated with the segment that is related to offshore oil production - on platforms. It is noted that many companies were forced to suspend their work on the shelf. Also, oil companies in Northern Europe and North America suspend state leases due to a “minus” withdrawal in offshore oil production.

An additional problem is the coronavirus, which has proven itself on several oil-producing platforms at sea. If one person in a limited space turns into a virus carrier, then the drilling platform personnel must be completely changed. At the same time, it cannot be properly disinfected, which causes risks for a shift team of oil workers.

Reported problems of a similar nature, for example, the company Royal Dutch Shell, the companies from Canada, USA, Mexico, Kazakhstan.
A new wave of the crisis is associated with the fact that companies engaged in offshore drilling will not be able to repay previously received loans by the end of this year.

Experts predict the oil industry "the perfect storm." This refers to a set of negative factors that further strengthen the resulting negative effect. A kind of negative output into resonance. This includes the mentioned coronavirus, and the falling volumes of investments in exploration, and the general decline in production, and much more, including general uncertainty in the markets.

Meanwhile, the price of oil continues to creep up. The night before, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded the mark of $ 38 per barrel. Currently, Brent is trading at 37,5-37,6 dollars.

Comments

[rocket757]

Again forecasts that are destined / not destined to come true!
It's a good job to cook up forecasts.
Although real analytics is necessary for planning, only it should be real research. Responsibly it is necessary to approach everything.

[Terenin]

Quote: rocket757

Again forecasts that are destined / not destined to come true!
It's a good job to cook up forecasts.

The main thing, then, is to tell with conviction why they did not come true ... but it’s better to make two mutually exclusive forecasts

[rocket757]

Quote: Terenin

The main thing, then, is to tell with conviction why they did not come true ... but it’s better to make two mutually exclusive forecasts

It may well be that justification is already ready why this did not happen.
According to statistics, we say that there is back and forth, do not understand how they count. Here is another "science" ... although it depends on the "analysts-forecasters" themselves.

[Shurik70]

Quote: rocket757

Although real analytics is necessary for planning, only it should be real research. Responsibly it is necessary to approach everything.

"Responsibility" means to be held accountable for your actions / inaction.
What kind of responsibility can there be if they are not responsible for their words.

[rocket757]

About that and speech. Most of these forecasts are complete pf-e. So let's write it down.

[The leader of the Redskins]

How's the joke?
Boasts gypsies:
- I have two sons. The weather is predicted at once! They go out on the porch in the morning, look at the sky. One says "it will rain" and the other says "it will not rain"!
And never wrong!)))

[avg]

So it is, only instead of the gypsy we substitute the exchange departments of the largest banks that make money on oil futures. They do not care where the price will go, the main thing is that the volatility (price fluctuations) is greater, and they hedge risks in both directions. So it turns out that someone is fighting a "perfect storm", and someone is in troubled waters " catches a fish ".

[Antagonist]

Quote: Terenin

The main thing, then, is to tell with conviction why they did not come true ... but it’s better to make two mutually exclusive forecasts

This is the main work of analysts, first to give one analytical conclusion, then explain why it was not justified. Very, very rare analysts who know how to analyze ...

[Ilya-spb]

An ideal storm in the oil industry will be caused by the cyclical nature of:
- a fall in oil prices means a reduction in exploration and investment in the re-equipment of equipment for oil production.

[rocket757]

This is true, objective reasons, but a very subjective circumstance gave rise to them. Politics and stuff.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Ilya-spb

a drop in oil prices means a reduction in exploration and investment in the retooling of oil production equipment.

Which will lead to a reduction in production and, respectively. price increases.

Rising prices will again make exploration and investment profitable.

And again in a circle ..

and with cheap hydrocarbons, green energy shines a little ....

[SOVIET UNION 2]

And what triggered the fall in prices? Decline in consumption or green energy?

[Antagonist]

Politics and politicians provoked a global drop in oil prices.

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

Quote: Olgovich

and with cheap hydrocarbons, green energy shines a little ....

Just with cheap hydrocarbons, the production of renewable energy designs cheaper, it becomes more profitable. In the money. In worked out in kW-hours to spent on their production - always loses. For gas for cement, coal for steel, gas and coal for aluminum, oil for transportation of raw materials and structures - use neodetski.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Oo sarcasm

Just with cheap hydrocarbons, the production of renewable energy designs cheaper, it becomes more profitable.

But does the traditional energy and the energy produced on it also become profitable?
Of course it is.

expert opinion, Eenergy.media:

The fall in oil prices makes virtually all alternative energy is disadvantageous, including the use of wind and solar energy.

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

Quote: Olgovich

And the traditional energy and the energy produced on it does not become profitable either

Surprise - little little benefit is added. For the direct processing of cheap fuel into cheap energy is almost independent of the cost of energy. So, interest. But products with a large share of surplus value - sometimes win 50 percent.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Oo sarcasm

For the direct conversion of cheap fuel into cheap energy is almost does not depend from the cost of energy.

Itself Recycling it doesn’t depend at all — what difference does it make — gold she refines oil or free (just indirectly)?
But the cost of the energy itself depends

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

Well, the cost of coal in the cost of electricity TPP - 10%. The change in the cost of coal three times (in either direction) is a change in the cost of electricity by 3%. With gas and fuel oil - the same.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Oo sarcasm

Well, the cost of coal in the cost of electricity TPP - 10%.

well, the cost of fuel in the cost of energy 50-70%

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

In Russia, 70% are taxes. 20% - depreciation.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Oyo Sarkazmi

In Russia, 70% are taxes. 20% - depreciation.

https://en.ppt-online.org/717077
energy cost: 70% fuel, 20% depreciation, 10% s / n

[Keyser soze]

and with cheap hydrocarbons, green energy shines a little ....

Exactly, on the contrary. The coronacrisis generally pushed the EU towards new goals and huge investments in green energy. Car policies and the shift to electric traffic are also accelerating. And the well-known Ilon introduces new batteries for cars with a millionth mileage and stand-alone devices for households. You cannot stop progress.

Specifically, in Bulgaria, we produce 20,3% of all energy from green sources.

[Sergey39]

Quote: Keyser Soze

Ilon introduces new batteries for cars

And what does the battery have to do with power? Is batteries a source of energy?

[Keyser soze]

What does the battery have to do with power?

They are part of green politics and in the next 3-5 years they will equalize prices with normal cars and mileage will become 800 km or more. to charge. The other day, the EU has given us 12 billion euros for stimulating the economy for 2 years, but it will be tied to carbon emissions and green energy, and a lot of it in the economy. But no matter how cool it is, in addition to all other programs.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Keyser Soze

Exactly, on the contrary. The coronacrisis generally pushed the EU towards new goals and huge investments in green energy.

complete nonsense: Eenergy.media:

The fall in oil prices makes virtually all alternative energy is disadvantageous, including the use of wind and solar energy.

further transition to alternative energy, which would gradually remove at least partially from oil and gas dependence, nlong buried

[Keyser soze]

complete nonsense: Eenergy.media:

Olgovich ............. I give you the numbers and data, from the European Commission page and hundreds of millions of euros to the green sector, you tell me - something’s energy opinion from Zadryuchinsky district ... Yes, I’m not cold and not warm nonsense for you - it’s important for me to ride an electric wheelchair, which is as usual, to clean the country from coal and garbage, and that Mask sell me an energy saving kit for the house, with a photovoltaic on the roof. And then I will laugh at the energy and petrol mafia. Even Nikola Tesla said that energy should be free and he is much smarter than you, so we go to this. Yes, and we’ll get there in our lifetime.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Keyser Soze

Olgovich ............. I give you the numbers and data from the page of the European Commission and hundreds of millions of euros in the green sector, you tell me - the opinion of something something from Zadryuchinsky district ...

Eugene.....

Roll up those pre-crown "numbers" and "millions" into a tube and, yes.

Some 40 percent of wind and solar capacity that was scheduled for the rest of 2020 has been delayed Zanyuhansk

Quote: Keyser Soze

Yes, I’m not cold and not warm, what nonsense is for you - for important to me,
but he said that energy should be free and he is much smarter than you,

Yes, I sneeze, who cares: it was about something else:

drop in oil prices makes almost disadvantageous any alternative energy, including the use of wind and solar energy.

And you ride at least on the Mask, even on the green-energy donkey (if there is enough money for this)

[Sergey39]

Low oil prices will lead to the death of "green energy".

[rocket757]

Quote: Sergey39

Low oil prices will lead to the death of "green energy".

There is nothing to "kill" there yet. But it is never worth saying that alternative energy will never appear. Something will happen. Science does not stand still, technologies are developing. Not straight tomorrow, but in the long term quite, quite.

[Boa kaa]

Quote: rocket757

There is nothing to "kill" there yet.

Well, this is where. In Brazil, for example, everything is even very wow.

According to the results of the 2019 calendar year, Brazil will produce 35,5 billion liters of ethanol from sugarcane and corn.

The country provides itself with fuel and exports it to the States.

[rocket757]

Somewhere there are unique conditions for the production of alternative fuels, not from hydrocarbons.
But what are the prospects?
Firstly, it will not work forever to occupy space not for food products. Depletion of the soil requires a lot of things to get an acceptable harvest, but here it will be impossible to do with green technologies !!! Those. classic, "dirty" production, WITHOUT IT, ANYTHING!
In general, you can drag a steamed project for some time, but this is not very forever.
Hydrocarbons and other things that Mother Nature gives us are good, but it can become our curse.
A sensible approach is needed right ... yesterday!

[Boa kaa]

Quote: rocket757

But what are the prospects?

Colleague, this is an option.
And the prospects are controlled fusion!
And still
- MHD generation on the planet’s magnetic field.
- PES on the shores of sea bays, and mini hydroelectric power stations in each rivulet ...
- Wind power plants, solar fields in deserts ...
And much more can be dug if desired.

[rocket757]

With a mini hydroelectric power station, not everything is so clean, for Feng Shui and problems above the roof, especially since it is not possible everywhere.
Windmills are not everywhere possible, for objective reasons.
But everything else is quite real plans. Let's see where development will go.

[Boa kaa]

Quote: rocket757

Let's see where development will go.

The main thing is to forward (or to the front!), And not back or back!

[rocket757]

A lot of people, many countries are involved. Through trial and error, the optimal solution will be found.

[Simargl]

Quote: Boa constrictor KAA

- Wind power plants,

Recently I read statistics on the destruction of midges and birds by windmills ... like a hunter - I shed a tear. But "green" - they are so green ... - are silent.

Quote: Boa constrictor KAA

mini hydroelectric power station in each rivulet ...

There are no fish anymore.

[Antagonist]

Quote: Sergey39

Low oil prices will lead to the death of "green energy".

I think in the next decade no one will kill anyone in the energy sector.

[knn54]

1.SUNNY ENERGY,
To replace solar energy sources of fossil fuels, it is necessary to build along the entire land part of the equator a continuous strip of solar panels with a width of at least 50 km.
2. GEOTHERMAL ENERGY.
To supply the necessary heat (water heating), we need very large areas at a depth of 10-15 km.
...
Read more: P.L. Kapitsa ENERGY AND PHYSICS Report at a scientific session dedicated to the 250th anniversary of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, October 8, 1975. See: Bulletin of the USSR Academy of Sciences. 1976. No. 1. S. 34-43.

[rocket757]

So far, technology does not stand still.

[Dart2027]

Quote: rocket757

technology does not stand still

There is such a thing as fundamental physics, in which there is a law of conservation of energy.
And no matter what the technology will be, solar power plants will always be limited by the amount of sunlight that reaches the Earth. The rest is similar.

[rocket757]

It is right. But talk about the complete replacement of one energy, another, is very much dreamers. Realists suggest combining different systems.
Moreover, the combination of new technologies for generating energy and new technologies for energy conservation is relevant and practical.

[Oyo Sarkazmi]

Quote: rocket757

So far, technology does not stand still.

It limits profitability - the density of energy generated per square centimeter - the area of ​​the piston or turbine, the anode / cathode of the battery / fuel cell.
For gas and gasoline this is 2 kW / cm². Other elements, including TVEL AC, have tens of watts. These tens of watts of transmitted power is the alternative energy brake.

[rocket757]

About profitability, the question is difficult, because politics, business affairs ... the fashion for "green" in the end.
In reality, the profitability of "green" energy is not visible at all, in the foreseeable future. Experts understand this, but who will ask them that ???

[Motorist]

Oh, 2 kW per cm² of piston - this is for very large diesels. And it’s more logical to consider by volume. As for the capacity of alternative energy - that's right.

[voyaka uh]

"It is necessary to build a continuous strip of solar panels with a width of at least 50 km along the entire land part of the equator." ////
----
This is real. And technically feasible. Solar power plants are being built
in deserts with solar reflectors or photocells
several tens of square kilometers.

[rocket757]

Yes, you can configure what you want. But the problems of energy transfer, to consumers, will not get any easier.

[voyaka uh]

Deserts in sub- and tropical zones - in bulk.
All the same, giant areas disappear, only dust storms from them.
And you’ll cover with batteries, at the edges of the forest shelterbelts - and there is electricity,
and deserts are limited. And jobs are being created: to support all this economy.

[rocket757]

For profitability, justification of such plans, the energy still needs to be SELLED somewhere. And this is not very close.

[voyaka uh]

Power lines are being built. And again, the unchanging Elon Musk (what would be without him? )
looking forward: his solution is to charge the batteries.
In Australia, he supplied the town with solar panels plus batteries.
Everyone laughed as usual. But it turned out (as usual).
Australians are wildly happy. They want the idea of ​​propagating.
Musk is already building 4 gigafactories of batteries. One is built,
another in the States, one in Germany, one in China. They are not only
for cars. So there is sun, there is solar technology, there is where
store electricity.
In the north it is not so reasonable to mount solar panels - I agree.
But in hot countries - that’s it.

[rocket757]

Yes s. I don’t even want to argue.
Just a tip, read about Australia as it is, as there a whole region is not weakly flocked on green energy.
About Japan, the same thing.
So far, green energy does not steer, all this can be later.

[voyaka uh]

", all this can be later" ////
----
We will not argue.
But I must pay your attention (in general):
"then" comes because it is being formed "now".
And those who are focused on "now" find themselves in "yesterday".

[rocket757]

We have adopted the concept of the development of thermonuclear energy and this is by no means yesterday, this is tomorrow.
Green energy is, so far, an auxiliary tomorrow.
I already wrote that this will be a parallel development with energy conservation.
But, the industry is not yet ready to switch to unreliable, expensive energy sources ... and it is the main consumer for a very, very long time.

[Simargl]

Quote: voyaka uh

several tens of square kilometers.

Those. 50 km wide 1 km - already dozens (5) km of area. And so 40000 times. And taking into account Akiyanov - a width of 200-300 km will work.

[Keyser soze]

Report at a scientific session dedicated to the 250th anniversary of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Moscow, October 8, 1975

Actually, they could quote the report of the Imperial Academy of Sciences since 1875.

[CT-55_11-9009]

Quote: Keyser Soze

Actually, they could quote the report of the Imperial Academy of Sciences since 1875.

And what is the fundamental difference between the fundamental physics of those times and today, if you do not take into account nuclear and quantum? There Newton’s laws were formulated in 1687 (and this is only the generally accepted wording, these questions were asked in ancient Greece). And what, since they are old - need to be changed?

[Keyser soze]

what fundamentally differs fundamental physics

Nothing. But the report on the efficiency of photovoltaics from 1975 and from 1875 have the same scientific value today.

[nobody111body]

everything is correct if a bunch of American Jews gave an order to reduce prices, it is in order to destroy the oil industry of such states as Russia Iran Venezuela; Well, well, this handful will mock us more than once until we raise our chemical industry to the proper level and we will not process our oil ourselves, at least into "semi-finished products"; and it is necessary to return to Libya and Iraq such presidents who could nationalize the oil industry

[A. Privalov]

Quote: nobody

if a bunch of american jews

I hope that even with the water in the tap everything is in order.

[New Year day]

Quote: nobody

if a handful of American Jews ordered a reduction in price, this was to destroy the oil industry of states such as Russia Iran Venezuela;

and after that, suppose they allow

Quote: nobody

... we will not process our oil well, at least into "semi-finished products"

and moreover

Quote: nobody

... it is necessary to return such presidents to Libya and Iraq who could nationalize the oil industry

Hard to believe, if not to say, this is impossible.
This is under the power of a self-sufficient and independent ECONOMY. And there will be no second Stalin with his industrialization. Alas

[Antagonist]

Quote: Silvestr

there will be no second Stalin with his industrialization. Alas

Who knows, maybe in the future someone will appear who will be better than Stalin ... The main thing is to change us:
a) today's economic and political course;
b) change politicians.
And perhaps, then, everything will work out for us.

[V1er]

Airplanes, cars, military equipment, ships. Everything works on oil and gas products. Until it runs out, oil will always be in demand. In the future, perhaps, we will switch to one electricity, nuclear power plants will be in demand.

[Eug]

I also think that the future of the energy sector for nuclear power plants, as soon as they open the ways of processing nuclear waste, is generally without problems. But oil and gas will become not energy, but chemical raw materials.

[A. Privalov]

Someone else is surprised by the fact that oil from such a rocking chair may well be cheaper than oil from an ocean drilling platform?

The transition to the use of alternative energy sources is not a single day. A revolution in this matter is not expected. This process is expensive. He is walking slowly. However, some changes are already visible with the naked eye.

[Dali]

Quote: A. Privalov

However, some changes are already visible with the naked eye.

This, that in the picture, is not a change, but a profanation ...

[KVU-NSVD]

All these "forecasts" are made to order from oilmen - they say there will be a "storm" if you do not urgently give subsidies ...

[Antagonist]

Quote: KVU-NSVD

if urgently do not give subsidies

They are already given. And always.

[Pvi1206]

the usual situation of capitalism ... periodic overproduction ... gradually everything will settle down ...

[Sergst]

Quote: Terenin

Quote: rocket757

Again forecasts that are destined / not destined to come true!
It's a good job to cook up forecasts.

The main thing, then, is to tell with conviction why they did not come true ... but it’s better to make two mutually exclusive forecasts

This is exactly what financial analysts do, and they combine two mutually exclusive forecasts in one - "if the rate goes up, then the value of N is predicted, and if the rate goes down, then the value of K is predicted." And these analysts make good money ...

[Antagonist]

Quote: Sergst

And these analysts make good money ...

This is the trouble of our state. Analysts earn more teachers, doctors, engineers and researchers ...

[CT-55_11-9009]

Quote: Antagonist

Quote: Sergst

And these analysts make good money ...

This is the trouble of our state. Analysts earn more teachers, doctors, engineers and researchers ...

Moreover, in some places - more than all of them combined.

[Operator]

We need 40 bucks a barrel, and let the shale men and sailors fly out into the pipe.

[Maks1995]

"Meanwhile, the price of oil continues to creep up."
And if there is no storm? Who will answer for the words? And then every fifth article is about "storm there, storm here"
And the Kremlin calmly declared: there will be no cheap gas for citizens.

[Antagonist]

Quote: Max1995

And if there is no storm? Someone will answer for the words?

Of course. Regardless of the prediction, whether it will come true or not, we, the citizens of Russia, will answer from our own pocket for gasoline that has risen in price, which will rise in price regardless of the price of oil.

[New Year day]

in such a storm someone dies, someone profits. For example, Rosneft will gobble up Lukoil. But in general. everything is fine ... but not for everyone.
Over 2 months, the population has depleted, and some have increased incomes. The law of conservation of money in nature is obtained

[Sergst]

Quote: Antagonist

Quote: Sergst

And these analysts make good money ...

This is the trouble of our state. Analysts earn more teachers, doctors, engineers and researchers ...

This is a trouble not only and not so much of our country, but of the whole world - in it financiers earn too much (too much) ...

[NF68]

That storm or calm today is observed not only in the oil industry.

[123456789]

Quote: rocket757

Again forecasts that are destined / not destined to come true!

The price for these forecasts is not higher than the face value of the coin that was tossed during their compilation.