Military Review

Bet on Sarajah: an explanation of Turkish choice in Libya

43

Libya has turned into another field of confrontation of a number of powers. The once rich and powerful state is torn apart by a civil war in which the main actors are the Government of National Accord Fayez Saraj and the Libyan National Army of Khalifa Haftar.


Although the Government of National Accord, based in Tripoli, is considered to be officially recognized by the United Nations, in reality the world powers are divided on the issue of real support for the main players in Libyan politics. But the main patron of PNS Sarajah is Turkey. Khalifa Haftaru, in turn, is credited with support from Russia, Egypt, the UAE, Greece, France and Cyprus.

Neo-Ottomanism, the gateway to migration and the Muslim Brotherhood


Turkey's choice is dictated by its growing political ambitions and economic interests. Firstly, Turkish President Recep Erdogan believes that he has every right to intervene in Libyan politics, since until 1911 Libya was part of the Ottoman Empire. By the way, this was the last North African territory lost by the Ottomans as a result of the Italo-Turkish war. Turkish influence in Libya has always been especially strong, although after the Italo-Turkish war it was somewhat shaken by Italian influence.

If France or Britain are actively interfering in the affairs of the former colonies, then why not Turkey? Especially when you consider that the relatively weak and passive Italy does not seek to participate in Libyan politics at the same serious level as Turkey. So the presence in Libya fits well with the neo-Ottoman plans of the Turkish president. The victory of forces controlled by Ankara in Libya will allow it to begin expansion into other countries of Arab North Africa and North-East Africa, which once entered the orbit of power or at least the influence of the Ottoman Empire.

But why Saraj? Yes, because behind the Khalifa Haftar are the Arab oil monarchies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are hoping to clean Libya from the Muslim Brotherhood and their organizations that are hostile to them. Recep Erdogan, “Muslim Brotherhood” sympathizing, supports them for ideological reasons.


There is one more important nuance. If Turkey is the Asian gateway to migration to Europe, then Libya is the African gateway. It is through Libya that the enormous flows of African migrants from countries of East, Central and West Africa rush to Italy and France. We remember how skillfully Erdogan blackmailed the EU with a stream of Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan migrants, and Libya is the key to the same blackmail by African migrants.

The economic aspects of supporting Saraj


Secondly, Turkey, more importantly, has obvious economic interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Libya, or rather the PNS in Tripoli, is one of the few reliable economic partners for Ankara in the region, since relations with Greece and Cyprus are understandably strained, they can’t be good with Israel either, and Egypt has deteriorated, as Erdogan supports the Egyptian Brothers Muslims ”against the military leadership of the country.

Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus created the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, with no place left for Turkey. They are actively exploring gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, but Turkey is doing just that. In order to avoid conflicts and provocations, exploration vessels escort Turkish drones. It is obvious that Turkey is striving to establish a monopoly over the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean. Libya, rich in oil and gas, is of particular interest to her in this regard.

Signed with the PNS, the agreement on the separation of marine zones and continental shelves in the Eastern Mediterranean actually closes the Libyan and Turkish zones, cutting off the Cyprus, Egyptian, Israeli and Greek zones from each other and from the rest of the Mediterranean. Thus, Turkey strikes at its energy competitors in the region. Since the agreement was signed specifically with Saraj, the task of Turkey is to maintain the power of the PNS Sarajah at least in Tripoli. In this case, the PNS will continue to maintain legitimacy as a power structure recognized by the UN, and, therefore, all agreements and memorandums signed by it will be valid.

So far, Turkey remains the most successful player in Libya. Despite the fact that Haftar had influential patrons, Turkey became the first of the interested countries that was not afraid to openly engage in the intra-Libyan conflict, sending military equipment, weapons, and then people, first thousands of militants withdrawn from Syrian Idlib to help the PNS, and then and professional military from the regular armed forces of Turkey.

If the rest of the states supporting Haftar will not be as active, then Turkey will at least be able to maintain actual control over Tripolitania, and at the maximum - clear most of the country from Haftar’s troops. However, Haftar’s military setbacks, combined with his venerable age (Field Marshal, nevertheless, 76 years old), may force former patrons to turn their backs on the military leader and begin to look for a replacement. So, recently they have been talking more and more about Safe Al-Islam - the eldest son of the murdered leader of the Libyan Jamahiriya Muammar Gaddafi. His figure is also associated with opposing Turkish interests in the country.
Author:
43 comments
Ad

The editorial board of Voenniy Obozreniye urgently needs a proofreader. Requirements: impeccable knowledge of the Russian language, diligence, discipline. Contact: [email protected]

Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Atlant-1164
    Atlant-1164 30 May 2020 12: 51 New
    +5
    This is not the first time Russia has been called upon to ensure the stabilization of Libya.
    Of course, this is a very risky step, but it will allow you to effectively control the migration channel going to Europe. And not just anyone, but Italy asks Russia to help in this way deal with the migration crisis, despite the loud shouts of European European leaders. This is not the first time they have tried to blame Italy for special contacts with Russia.
    But Mario Giro, Italy's deputy foreign minister, says: "We will be glad if Russia brings peace to Libya." The fact is that Faiz Saraj, the Prime Minister of Libya, has a serious and promising rival - General Khalifa Haftar, on whom the alternative government is betting and supported by Russia, which is allegedly going to build naval bases in Libya.
    1. alone
      alone 30 May 2020 13: 09 New
      +5
      Quote: Atlant-1164
      there is a serious and promising rival - General Khalifa Haftar,

      With his declaration of sole power, the Hawtor put his patrons in an awkward position ..
      Now, behind the scenes, there is talk of his change .. And as for the promises - he has a situation right now that he can promise anything .. A single military leader in Libya is not beneficial to anyone .. Yes and frankly, the Hawtor is not Gaddafi .. This whole year held out under the bombs and armada of opponents .. And the Hawtor for the whole year could not take even one city, having a huge military advantage over the PNS
    2. iouris
      iouris 30 May 2020 13: 41 New
      +3
      Quote: Atlant-1164
      not anyone, but Italy asks Russia to help

      It is necessary to help Italy, affected by the coronavirus. Yes, and the Italian soldiers feel sorry - they are such nice guys.
      1. knn54
        knn54 30 May 2020 15: 37 New
        +2
        Why on earth help Italy, which supports the PNS along with Turkey and Qatar ???
        Regarding the article. Ilya, thanks. ALL is laid out on the shelves.
        Turkey has several interests / goals at once.
        This is the support of OWN Muslim Brothers, even in Idlib, even in Libya. And Faiz Saraj adheres to the orientation of the Muslim Brothers.
        This and energy, without which the Turkish economy can not develop.
        This is neo-Ottomanism.
        There is also pan-Turkism, which is Gulen’s skate, but it doesn’t work out here.
        Well, and 15 billion dollars, which Turkey gave to Gaddafi (construction business) and which the PNS promised to "compensate".
      2. antivirus
        antivirus 30 May 2020 18: 22 New
        +1
        I feel sorry for the Italian soldiers - they are such nice guys.

        - and boots for asphalt, not for sand - not ready for war
    3. New Year day
      New Year day 30 May 2020 15: 17 New
      +2
      Quote: Atlant-1164
      and Italy asks Russia to help in this way to deal with the migration crisis

      Italy itself intends to rake the heat with the wrong hands?
      Quote: Atlant-1164
      but it will allow effective control of the migration channel going to Europe.

      this is an EU problem that does not burn for us with its love. So let them decide.
  2. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 30 May 2020 12: 52 New
    0
    Bet on Sarajah: an explanation of Turkish choice in Libya
    It is clear that Turkey needs a cow, will milk, and a rope on which Europe will be led (to blackmail). Business. request
  3. barin
    barin 30 May 2020 12: 59 New
    +1
    Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus set up the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, with no place left for Turkey

    Turkey just had to become a member of this forum repeat
  4. alone
    alone 30 May 2020 13: 02 New
    +4
    The article certainly gives some clarity, but it does not show another important component that is beneficial for Turkey .. Turkey during the Gaddafi concluded a deal of $ 25 billion in the construction sector .. Saraj committed to fulfill the contract.
    1. New Year day
      New Year day 30 May 2020 15: 19 New
      +4
      Quote: lonely
      ... made a deal of 25 billion dollars ....

      It is clear that at the head of all money, money, and once again money
      1. alone
        alone 30 May 2020 15: 26 New
        +3
        Quote: Silvestr
        It is clear that at the head of all money, money, and once again money

        Naturally .. All those who help one side or another count on long-term multi-billion dollar contracts .. Nobody does anything for beautiful eyes
  5. Break through
    Break through 30 May 2020 13: 02 New
    -4
    In short, Haftar needs more missiles and normal air defense to cover the near and middle zone. UAE I think they will buy him a weapon.
    1. alone
      alone 30 May 2020 13: 13 New
      +2
      Quote: Break through
      In short, Haftar needs more missiles and normal air defense to cover the near and middle zone. UAE I think they will buy him a weapon.

      The former (and the former does not happen) CIA agent had everything .. the Ground Forces, Aviation, artillery .. The UAE, so he transmitted everything that could be transferred down to the drone drone .. And so?
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 30 May 2020 15: 20 New
        +1
        Quote: lonely
        .So what?

        ..receiving
        1. alone
          alone 30 May 2020 15: 33 New
          +4
          Quote: Silvestr
          ..receiving

          True, retreating .. In essence, both Saraj and Hawtor are former allies-opponents of Gaddafi .. This is a simple power struggle between yesterday’s allies .. I am surprised at some forum users who
          They fiercely support Khavtor and consider him "their own." then I have not heard that in these enclaves Khavtor wets ISIS .. everything is quiet as at night in the bath
          1. New Year day
            New Year day 30 May 2020 16: 49 New
            +4
            Quote: lonely
            In fact, there are none of them ..

            I agree completely.
            Quote: lonely
            I wonder at some forum users who
            fiercely support havtor

            They fluctuate depending on the course of the party. laughing
            Medvedev has sanctioned the Libyan deriban, and now we are trying to win back the position. There we are simply used in exchange for theoretical benefits
  6. andrew42
    andrew42 30 May 2020 13: 10 New
    -1
    And there is still no answer to the main question: which of the players is the conductor of US interests? More precisely, the masters of the United States (as a quasi-state). The fact that American interests are taken into account there with the highest priority is no need to go to a fortune-teller. But how well disguised! I would not be surprised if the United States plays on both "sides of support" - both through the broad front of the anti-Turkish "coalition" for Hafftar (while Russia has nothing to do there), and through the "allegedly quarreling" with the States of Turkey (with the Turks there is no way to ally, for the Turks). In fact, there is no side there that Russia should support. A 3rd force is needed.
  7. donavi49
    donavi49 30 May 2020 13: 12 New
    +6
    By the way, from yesterday’s vidos, the Turks have already launched Artu’s campaign. Surely flies solitary. For purposes like Tank Pickup. Well, the UAV hanging over the positions of the defenders is the end of the defense.
    1. barin
      barin 30 May 2020 13: 37 New
      +1
      Judging by the personnel, the Turks polished their tactics. Opponents need to knock something off.
    2. ximkim
      ximkim 30 May 2020 16: 17 New
      0
      Yes ... The Turks give a light there, everyone ..
    3. Oquzyurd
      Oquzyurd 30 May 2020 23: 07 New
      -1
      Yesterday there was a fragment of a video from Tripoli, where the newly brought Sabra tanks and Firtyn howitzers were transported on trailers.
  8. Doccor18
    Doccor18 30 May 2020 13: 38 New
    0
    Especially when you consider that the relatively weak and passive Italy does not seek to participate in Libyan politics at the same serious level as Turkey.

    Italy has Cavour, Trieste is being completed. Why, if not used?
    And Turkey grabbed Libya like a pit bull. In Syria, inherited, now she climbed further.
    1. iouris
      iouris 30 May 2020 13: 47 New
      +1
      Or maybe Erdogan has interests there?
  9. iouris
    iouris 30 May 2020 13: 46 New
    +3
    We are waiting for an expert explanation about the "Russian choice" in Libya. This is more important.
  10. rocket757
    rocket757 30 May 2020 14: 29 New
    -1
    Big and muddy batch.
    Turkey has brought in a "fresh stream", in its own interests, of course.
    Who is next???
    1. Lepilo
      Lepilo 31 May 2020 14: 56 New
      0
      Quote: rocket757
      Big and muddy batch.
      Turkey has brought in a "fresh stream", in its own interests, of course.
      Who is next???

      Well, the Turks both there and in this hit the kukan ...
      It is not possible for them to show their power to the "Sultan" .. Everywhere Russians appear, unofficially! bully And maybe soon the Chinese))))
  11. Normal ok
    Normal ok 30 May 2020 14: 34 New
    -7
    world powers divided on the issue of real support for the main players in Libyan politics. But the main patron of PNS Sarajah is Turkey. Khalifa Haftaru, in turn, is credited with support from Russia, Egypt, the UAE, Greece, France and Cyprus.

    "Recently a pub was opened in Libya. A gang of thieves fought there. They beat girls: Marusya, Rosa, Raya. And Vasya shmarovoz beat them personally." Folk poetry, music: Argentine tango.
    1. Lepilo
      Lepilo 31 May 2020 15: 04 New
      0
      Quote: Normal ok
      "A pub has recently opened in Libya.

      The French and the Jitai fought there .. Everything ended there very quickly!
      When the Russians went there to drink some clean water .. hi bully
  12. really
    really 30 May 2020 15: 37 New
    -2
    And why doesn’t anyone blame Turkey for striving to seize Libya’s oil and gas, rob the local population during the construction, having previously destroyed the country with a full-fledged civil war.
    1. FIR FIR
      FIR FIR 30 May 2020 16: 14 New
      -2
      Everything has already been destroyed and stolen. Turkey, like a scavenger, flew into the smell of swollen carcasses.
      1. really
        really 30 May 2020 16: 30 New
        -2
        Do you think the bones will rise?
    2. barin
      barin 30 May 2020 16: 15 New
      0
      Well, why, they accuse, but not all.
      You better help Haftar with air defense - all the same along the way defends your interests
      1. really
        really 30 May 2020 16: 27 New
        -2
        Who, entot general, do not confuse people
        1. barin
          barin 30 May 2020 16: 36 New
          0
          Why not? The enemy of my enemy is my friend, or rather a companion
          1. really
            really 30 May 2020 16: 41 New
            +1
            There are people and countries to stay away from.
            1. barin
              barin 30 May 2020 16: 42 New
              0
              Yes, I agree. Only they are all different
              1. really
                really 30 May 2020 16: 44 New
                +1
                Look at the biography of this general, you have to hold on to him a mile away
      2. alone
        alone 30 May 2020 16: 57 New
        +2
        Quote: barin
        all the same, along the way, defends your interests

        A US citizen, an agent of the CIA and defends the interests of Russia ... Congenially
        1. barin
          barin 30 May 2020 17: 34 New
          -1
          You did not understand. Defends Israeli interests
          1. alone
            alone 30 May 2020 17: 43 New
            -1
            Quote: barin
            You did not understand. Defends Israeli interests

            what Quite possible
  13. demo
    demo 30 May 2020 16: 59 New
    -1
    Turkey's choice is dictated by its growing political ambitions and economic interests. Firstly, Turkish President Recep Erdogan believes that he has every right to intervene in Libyan politics .....

    If the main ideologist of such a policy is mainly the head of state, then the problem is solved very simply - bang and there is no such policy.
    But if such a policy is supported by the ruling party and the electorate, then everything is much more complicated.
    Here it is necessary to rack one's brains on how to reduce the country's aspirations for neocolonialism.
    Although!
    There are options.
    Kurds.
    They can activate their enclave aspirations.
    And you can look for other options.
    But on the part of the Russian Federation, one does not have to wait for steps that would level the Erdogan trend.
    The Russian Federation again laid all the eggs in one Turkish basket.
  14. APASUS
    APASUS 31 May 2020 08: 04 New
    0
    An interesting alignment, is it soon worth waiting for the emergence of new players in the Libyan conflict, such as Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus?
    1. iouris
      iouris 31 May 2020 17: 43 New
      0
      Quote: APASUS
      worth the wait for new players in the Libyan conflict

      Probably, everyone is there from the very beginning, but "proxies" are fighting, as always.