Military Review

The recession of the Russian economy is inevitable. The Ministry of Economic Development predicted the depth and duration

135

Of course, each of us cares how much a coronavirus pandemic will hit the domestic economy and how the accompanying crisis moments will affect, for example, a drop in world energy prices. Certain negative consequences are visible to many right now. But what awaits the country in the future? Some preliminary forecasts are announced. There are no reasons for optimism, but there is no reason for panic.


On the eve of the official forecast regarding the alleged socio-economic development of Russia for the period 2020-2023, made the head of the domestic Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov. Perhaps he would most accurately describe the expectations he voiced as follows: a mixture of restrained pessimism with extremely cautious optimism. However, start the head of this department to paint rainbow pictures of future prosperity, no one would have believed him ...

The most difficult period for the country will be the main impact of restrictive measures aimed at preventing the spread of the epidemic, the second quarter of this year. It brings us an economic decline of 9,5% (year on year). In total, according to the results of an extremely unsuccessful 2020, the domestic economy will sink by 5%. In comparison with the growth of 1,9% planned by the calculations of the same Ministry of Economic Development, this picture is certainly sad. The depth is great. On the other hand, it is not known what would result from the adoption of strict quarantine measures and the widespread adoption of COVID-19 in Russia. Losses in the end would probably be even higher. But there is something to compare with. Let’s take a look at the results of the year in Sweden and Belarus, where no strict quarantine measures were taken.

However, according to Reshetnikov, already in the fourth quarter the process will take the opposite direction, the economy will begin to recover after the damage. Though not by much, only by a few percent, but its decline will slow down at first, and then the process will go from falling to growth: by 2,8% and 3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Nevertheless, it will be able to achieve the pre-coronavirus level of Russia's GDP no earlier than I – II quarter of 2022.

Speaking about the prospective prospects, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development has repeatedly emphasized that they should not be considered as some kind of accurate prediction in any case. Too many factors are involved in this case that lie outside the scope of economists' competence and are more likely to be related to an area in which only epidemiologists can predict something. Moreover, no one today can clearly and unequivocally assess the level of recession in the global economy, of which ours is a part. Some experts say it is reduced by 2%, while others - by all 5%. There is no consensus on the pace and volume of global GDP recovery. But after all, domestic macroeconomic indicators directly depend on the return of all other countries to normal volumes of economic activity, the restoration of sustainable demand for the same energy sources.

In addition, before the “launch” of many industries, which is expected only after the restrictions are lifted, it is impossible to accurately determine the size of the losses incurred and the amount of amounts necessary for the speedy recovery of those that have suffered the most. The government intends to work in this direction - three aid packages have already been adopted and are being implemented, another one should be submitted to the president no later than June 1. Nevertheless, Reshetnikov warned business representatives that work “with serious restrictions” expects them for a rather long period - at least until the end of the summer. According to him, the complete lifting of bans could be discussed not earlier than receiving an effective vaccine from COVID-19. Otherwise, economic activity can be too expensive.

The forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development regarding the social sphere are also unfavorable. Alas, Russians expect the highest unemployment rate since 2011. This year it may well reach 5,7%, however, its decline will begin literally next year. Against this background, the calculations of the decrease in real incomes of the population, which in 2020 will fall by 3,8%, look quite natural. However, there is hope that they will begin to grow literally next year. Independent economists believe these figures are far from reality. Many representatives of small business during the so-called “paid non-working days” were already forced to say goodbye to the main part of the labor collective, and for the rest of it to cut wages by 25-50%.

The ruble and a barrel of oil


A special collapse of the ruble exchange rate, in spite of the many “apocalyptic” predictions about a “100 dollar”, is not expected. 75-76 rubles by the end of the year - this is most likely. True, provided that the oil barrel does not fall in price below $ 31, there is reason to hope for that. In the next two years, the course will fluctuate, but not too noticeably. The expectation of economists is an exit by 2021 in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel.

Well, if the calculations of domestic economists are correct, then Russia will nevertheless be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios. There will be no general ruin, "collapse" and "collapse" of the economy. But the coming years will not be satisfying and fat. What will happen? According to Maxim Reshetnikov, "a long way up." It remains only to be inspired by the words: "The road will be overpowered by the walking one."
Author:
Photos used:
Website of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia / Maxim Reshetnikov
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  1. Pilot
    Pilot 23 May 2020 10: 13 New
    44
    A special collapse of the ruble exchange rate, in spite of the many “apocalyptic” predictions about a “100 dollar”, is not expected. 75-76 rubles by the end of the year - this is most likely. True, provided that the oil barrel does not fall in price below $ 31, there is reason to hope for that. In the next two years, the course will fluctuate, but not too noticeably. The expectation of economists is an exit by 2021 in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel.
    Another fortune-telling on the oil and gas pipe is the whole work of Putin’s, economists, it’s better to turn to the gypsies to the government, the error of fortune-telling is less, even generations of charlatans, professionals.
    1. lucul
      lucul 23 May 2020 10: 53 New
      -18
      Another fortune-telling on the oil and gas pipe is the whole work of Putin’s, economists, it’s better to turn to the gypsies to the government, the error of fortune-telling is less, even generations of charlatans, professionals.

      Yes, they pour it into the ears of the West.
      In fact, in industry - the consumption of electric energy in Russia in the 1st quarter of 2020, compared with the 1st quarter of 2019, only 96%, i.e. a drop of only 4%.
      In Germany, electricity consumption in industry, compared to the 1st quarter of 2019, is only 75%, i.e. a drop of 25%. Across Europe, the total drop in electricity consumption .....
      1. rocket757
        rocket757 23 May 2020 11: 02 New
        0
        Quote: lucul
        In fact, in industry - electricity consumption

        The real indicator is the consumption of all energy carriers combined!
        Both in industry and other consumers ... everything is interconnected.
        Russia does not have worse indicators, rather in the ten most stable economies.
        So sho ash should not be sprinkled on your head. We will break through.
        1. Beringovsky
          Beringovsky 23 May 2020 11: 18 New
          43
          The most sustainable economies in Africa.
          They just have nowhere to fall.
          Suggest this model? Well, and so we go to her. Stabilization and optimization will help us. Plus zeroing!
          1. iouris
            iouris 23 May 2020 20: 03 New
            +7
            Quote: Beringovsky
            Suggest this model? Well, and so we go to her.

            The issue of the model was resolved in 1985. Now the main question: why do we need the economy?
          2. Tomich3
            Tomich3 24 May 2020 09: 00 New
            +6
            Well, it's been a long time since. In 2019, the minimum wage in Russia was 11 rubles, and in South Africa, for example, 280 rubles. (16 p. higher).
            1. Vadim237
              Vadim237 24 May 2020 14: 05 New
              0
              You did not bring price tags for goods and everything else in South Africa - then the picture will be accurate.
              1. Tomich3
                Tomich3 24 May 2020 15: 22 New
                +6
                Water, 0,33 liter bottle
                41.08
                Milk, ordinary, 1 liter
                59.14
                Loaf of fresh white bread, 0,5 kg
                54.75
                White rice, 1 kg
                83.22
                Eggs, pack of 12
                100.18
                Local cheese, 1 kg
                391.99
                Chicken breasts, boneless and skinless, 1 kg
                281.96
                Beef tenderloin, red meat, 1 kg
                367.38
                Apples, 1 kg
                88.71
                Bananas, 1 kg
                72.28
                Oranges, 1 kg
                86.52
                Tomatoes, 1 kg
                78.83
                Potato, 1 kg
                72.28
                Onion, 1 kg
                66.26
                Lettuce, 1 head
                58.04
                Water, 1,5 liter bottle
                62.97
                Bottle of wine, average price
                238.16
                These are the prices for May 2020. The average salary "on hand" is 74.
                1. Vadim237
                  Vadim237 24 May 2020 17: 55 New
                  -7
                  In Russia, the average salary is 46000 - III.
                2. aybolyt678
                  aybolyt678 30 May 2020 07: 05 New
                  0
                  why are so expensive fruits and vegetables in South Africa ??? it’s warm and there are many blacks!
                  1. DiKoff
                    DiKoff 30 May 2020 18: 52 New
                    +1
                    This is a fallacy: the average temperature in Cape Town is 17 ° C. In the summer, it happens sometimes under 50 °, but also in winter to -17 ° C so that tomatoes are also not very good all year round. And with the blacks there it’s not easy - now there are more whites to defend. Rulers are all black and inadequate. In Johannesburg, it’s dangerous even in the afternoon.
            2. tracer
              tracer 24 May 2020 18: 16 New
              -8
              Do not want to go to South Africa for permanent residence? There you quickly nat most explain how and what is there .... Comparator.
              1. SOVIET UNION 2
                SOVIET UNION 2 25 May 2020 08: 15 New
                +1
                Is there no national majority in Russia? Who is the titular nation in Russia?
          3. YOUR
            YOUR 24 May 2020 15: 12 New
            +1
            Article does not understand what. Something so common and nothing. More or less forecast for the ruble and oil. Oil is the whole economy.
        2. Private89
          Private89 23 May 2020 14: 03 New
          20
          With this kodla in power, a breakthrough is possible only into the abyss.
          1. rocket757
            rocket757 23 May 2020 14: 11 New
            -11
            Quote: Private 89
            With this kodla in power, a breakthrough is possible only into the abyss.

            It is necessary to change, and ON WHOM?
            There is a lot of talk and nothing concrete worthy has been created .... it will not happen.
            By the way, the upper ones do not seek to prescribe themselves, then they will lose a lot ... what they cannot, they cannot do it differently, now, always, is our misfortune, which we ourselves created.
            1. Vol4ara
              Vol4ara 24 May 2020 09: 35 New
              +1
              Quote: rocket757
              Quote: Private 89
              With this kodla in power, a breakthrough is possible only into the abyss.

              It is necessary to change, and ON WHOM?
              There is a lot of talk and nothing concrete worthy has been created .... it will not happen.
              By the way, the upper ones do not seek to prescribe themselves, then they will lose a lot ... what they cannot, they cannot do it differently, now, always, is our misfortune, which we ourselves created.

              All worthy lie on the ditches and feed the fish. First you need to create conditions for those who are worthy, but you can not create, but wait for the advent of a new grandfather Lenin
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 24 May 2020 13: 51 New
                -5
                Made laugh! Twice.
                By the way, if you wait ... you couldn’t wait.
              2. aybolyt678
                aybolyt678 30 May 2020 07: 29 New
                0
                Quote: Vol4ara
                and wait for the advent of the new grandfather of Lenin

                At the beginning of the 20th century there was a real scientific and technological revolution! the appearance of cars, telephones, and cinema led to a worship of science. Science and literacy had authority more than the Church. They believed in science. People who set forth thoughts scientifically enjoyed unquestioned authority.
                Now they do not believe in science, do not believe in people, do not believe in good. Where does grandfather Lenin come from ???
            2. SOVIET UNION 2
              SOVIET UNION 2 25 May 2020 08: 17 New
              0
              Medvedev has already been changed. Was the change noticeable?
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 25 May 2020 11: 34 New
                +1
                Replacing public faces in general can’t bring fundamental changes! And our control system is fundamentally sick!
            3. DiKoff
              DiKoff 30 May 2020 19: 06 New
              +1
              There are no substitutes and there is someone, the question of how much everyone is ready to become honest people and really live by the law? And it's not a secret that the middle class is basically stolen VAT, understated or even left-wing customs and laundered profits and they are the main source of kickbacks (yes, they are taken and asked at the top, but they are given to those who want to become rich faster and live well, or live violate the law - for example, tax legislation - here both parties are criminals). And now it has become practically impossible to launder and there is no total cut of the dough with all layers when the situation and oil collapsed, there is no investment in the country and the whole middle class economy, buy this and sell it by 90%. And only 10% try to do something themselves. The Japanese economy is 80% small and medium-sized businesses that mainly produce something, rather than a net distribution of goods. According to Rosstat, we have about 30 million working people who practically do not pay taxes, (markets where cash and services are used on a large scale, etc.), and a total of 65 million workers, and these should contain another 60 million countries, the army, industry, all infrastructure, education, medicine, and taking into account corruption, and past the cash register - that’s how they went before the disaster.
              1. rocket757
                rocket757 30 May 2020 19: 24 New
                0
                The system of power, management, the economy is sick.
                No one seeks to cure, of those in power. They already have everything in chocolate.
                What to do?
          2. w70
            w70 24 May 2020 12: 22 New
            +2
            You'll never be ... Sergeant
      2. Beringovsky
        Beringovsky 23 May 2020 11: 16 New
        45
        All is well, beautiful marquise ... wassat
        In April alone, auto sales fell on 72,5%and this is just the beginning. In May it will be even worse, despite the support of the state.
        Speaking of support)))) At the meeting (in the bunker laughing ) in early May, it was decided to support the domestic automaker. The volume is certainly small, but the distribution ... It was decided to allocate 5 billion for the purchase of cars for doctors, and this is about 2 thousand ambulances at current prices. And for the Russian Guard and the police, etc. It was decided to purchase as many as 25 thousand cars. The Russian leadership has strange priorities, to say the least. Although from which side to look .. If from the side of this guide, then it is clear that ensuring your own power is much more important than public health!
        1. your1970
          your1970 23 May 2020 19: 17 New
          -10
          Quote: Beringovsky
          And for the Russian Guard and the police, etc. decided to purchase already 25 thousand cars. Strange priorities for the Russian leadership, to put it mildly .... If on the part of this leadership, then it is clear that ensuring their own power is much more important than health


          "Additionally about 25 thousand new this year departments such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian Guard, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Emergencies and a number of other structures"- Putin said.

          "Do you have additional needs for this technique?" - he asked the interlocutor.
          "There is, for private security - in cars"- answered Zolotov. The President explained that it can be not only cars, but also military and special equipment -" whatever ".
          "We have now purchased special equipment, 680 units, but we still need to ", - said the head of the Russian Guard. "

          And we SUDDENLY we see that 25 cars NOT only for the Russian Guard (the need for which is already partially covered, but the second half is clearly comparable to the first) and the Ministry of Internal Affairs - and for more heaps of departments. For example, not the most numerous Rosreestr should buy 280 all-terrain vehicles for land surveillance ....

          Would you even strength Rosguards for starters remembered, before thumping that all for them ....
          1. DiKoff
            DiKoff 26 May 2020 10: 40 New
            +1
            the number of Rosgvardia is 340 bayonets, the number of the Ground Forces is <000 - in fact, 300% less, 000 - 15 -25000 let another -680 for all different departments = ~ 280 Where to the Army? Considering that the president is a pathological liar and Zolotov too, add 10000 to the pronounced numbers, that is, increase the order of the number, in mathematical terms.
            1. your1970
              your1970 26 May 2020 13: 43 New
              -3
              again, you only counted what you are interested in ...

              Are there only Ground Forces in the army? Are there no fleets and aircraft? Or do they not need cars? 900 in total ...
              Ministry of Internal Affairs? 590 (without Rosguard)
              MOE? 291
              total 22 ministries, and there are still services, agencies and FSUEs
              И all need transport - the distances in our country are rather big
              1. DiKoff
                DiKoff 30 May 2020 19: 37 New
                0
                Yes, you don’t tell me tales about the white bull-calf, otherwise I’ll tell you about the number of unused cars that are in storage and about the divisions that are deployed in case of war, with tens of thousands of units on platforms or in boxes, and thousands more abandoned. And if you accept the intensity of the operation of vehicles, I don’t need to sing songs about the fleet and aviation, and about motorized rifles with airborne assault, too, they have slightly different means of transportation if you are not in the know. At the Ministry of Emergency Situations cars 98% of the time in general are in boxes. The most intensive use of cars is in the police and ambulance, and then the utilities and even part of it is seasonal. Do not forget that these structures do not bring any profit, but only an item of expenditure from national taxes.
                1. your1970
                  your1970 30 May 2020 21: 22 New
                  0
                  Quote: DiKoff
                  The most intensive use of cars is in the police and ambulance

                  Yeah .... for understanding, within the framework of the State Land Supervision our Grant traveled 4 km in 120 years, actually traveled ....
                  They will give us to the region from these 280 - only 2 .... the rest of the fleet is older than 10 years, they will not get out of repairs ....
                  Quote: DiKoff
                  Do not forget that these structures do not bring any profit, but only an item of expenditure from national taxes.
                  and let's sell all the equipment of the army !!!! Well, it does not bring profit ....
                  And the Ministry of Emergencies doesn’t bring profit either,
                  Quote: DiKoff
                  98% of the time in general in the boxes are.
                  - let’s carry the goods !!!
                  Here you are, sufferers "for the national taxes" bring more troubles than the worst enemies of Russia.
        2. tracer
          tracer 24 May 2020 18: 19 New
          -4
          And did someone authorize you to make statements from the "new" leadership? Maybe you dream to be there already? Or are you it?
      3. 210ox
        210ox 23 May 2020 14: 10 New
        14
        I feel any cataclysms in the world economy in Russia much more strongly because of the strong dependence of energy prices, speculative attachment to the dollar, and generally weak industry. We generally keep silent about the quality of all these "Reshetnikovs".
        1. Alf
          Alf 23 May 2020 22: 35 New
          +1
          Quote: 210ox
          We will generally keep silent about the quality of all these "Reshetnikovs".

          And who took this Reshetnikov to work?
        2. Vadim237
          Vadim237 24 May 2020 14: 09 New
          -4
          The industry produces as many products as it is ready to buy from it - you won’t be able to jump above your head - production volumes depend on consumers.
          1. Fan-fan
            Fan-fan 24 May 2020 19: 05 New
            +3
            You are not telling the whole truth. For example, people are ready and happy to buy goods, but the price of goods is high, and the salary of the people is small. What do you buy for a salary of 20 thousand?
            In general, there is one rhetorical question - why do we winners live worse than the defeated? Why can the losers buy goods, and the winners only bread, milk and vodka?
            1. Vadim237
              Vadim237 25 May 2020 00: 58 New
              -6
              Yes, he is so happy to buy our goods - but they take loans for millions and buy products of foreign manufacturers. The competition for our production also influences the manufacturers completely and ours are not alone. Probably because their market economy and capitalism developed steadily throughout the entire 20th century, and with 69 years of interruption and a sharp jump from communist capitalism in the 90s, nobody really knew what to do under the new conditions except units and in the process 69 the entire civilian sector was kicked into the second third plans for the summer breakdown in the planned economy for the sake of the military-industrial complex and help half the world for thanks for helping the lack of competition between manufacturers the planned economy with distribution that worked have - that is at the top who decided how much and what will kpotreblyat in the USSR for the year of course that such a system but also closely to determine how much and what the Soviet people will consume, and that will not be able to buy - hence the deficit for all products. That’s why in the west there is Apple Microsoft Boing Sony Nike Adidas GE Mercedes BMW and thousands of brands that have gained influence in the world and their customer base - and we at that time for 69 years were engaged in the production of cannons for combat aircraft missiles and so on. Here is the answer to why we live worse than the defeated.
              1. SOVIET UNION 2
                SOVIET UNION 2 25 May 2020 08: 23 New
                +2
                Vadim! Wake up! We have been living under capitalism for 30 years! Compare 30 years of life in Russia and China! how much can Soviet people consume !? And how much can a capitalist person from Russia consume?
      4. Snarkxnumx
        Snarkxnumx 23 May 2020 18: 05 New
        +5
        "In fact, by industry - electricity consumption in Russia in the 1st quarter of 2020"
        Sorry, what does the first quarter have to do with it? Limitations when they began to introduce?
    2. Civil
      Civil 23 May 2020 10: 54 New
      31
      Well, if the calculations of domestic economists are correct, then Russia will nevertheless be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

      If there wasn’t a coronavirus, it would be worth it to come up with. Otherwise, how to hide the complete incompetence of leaders, especially in the field. The heads of municipalities are completely greedy, corrupt mediocrity, the special shame is that most of them are teachers. Former teachers rule the country through one place.
      1. Paul Siebert
        Paul Siebert 23 May 2020 16: 06 New
        13
        Quote: Civil
        Well, if the calculations of domestic economists are correct, then Russia will nevertheless be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

        If there wasn’t a coronavirus, it would be worth it to come up with. Otherwise, how to hide the complete incompetence of leaders, especially in the field. The heads of municipalities are completely greedy, corrupt mediocrity, the special shame is that most of them are teachers. Former teachers rule the country through one place.

        Yes, and Reshetnikov himself ruled in Perm in such a way that "thank you, no need", destroyed the trolleybus routes, canceled the "city train", poured billions into unrealized long-term construction projects.
        And now - come on, you went on an increase to Moscow ...
        1. Alf
          Alf 23 May 2020 22: 36 New
          +4
          Quote: Paul Siebert
          And now - come on, you went on an increase to Moscow ...

          Others are not taken there.
    3. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 23 May 2020 11: 30 New
      20
      Quote: Pilot
      It’s better to turn to the Gypsies to the government, the error of fortune-telling is less, even for generations of charlatan, professionals.

      You are right, in the gypsy fortune-telling of faith anymore, they don't say "we think, we hope, maybe". Gypsies have more specifics. It's time to send all experts and "managers" to retraining courses for gypsy fortune tellers. I don’t know how much good it will do, but there will be no harm.
    4. Normal ok
      Normal ok 24 May 2020 19: 47 New
      +3
      Quote: Pilot
      A special collapse of the ruble exchange rate, in spite of the many “apocalyptic” predictions about a “100 dollar”, is not expected. 75-76 rubles by the end of the year - this is most likely. True, provided that the oil barrel does not fall in price below $ 31, there is reason to hope for that. In the next two years, the course will fluctuate, but not too noticeably. The expectation of economists is an exit by 2021 in the range of 40-45 dollars per barrel.
      Another fortune-telling on the oil and gas pipe is the whole work of Putin’s, economists, it’s better to turn to the gypsies to the government, the error of fortune-telling is less, even generations of charlatans, professionals.

      Kharaluzhny specializes in scoring the "official positive". There is even nothing to argue about.
  2. Svarog
    Svarog 23 May 2020 10: 18 New
    32
    True, provided that the oil barrel does not fall in price below $ 31, for which there is reason to hope

    The truth is that for 20 years they have remained a commodity economy, moreover, dependence on oil and gas only increases. And for 6 consecutive years there has been a steady decline in citizens' incomes, despite the fact that there are more billionaires.
    Well, if the calculations of domestic economists are correct, then Russia will nevertheless be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

    What's the worst case scenario? This is likely when the middle class (17000 rubles) will completely disappear ..
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 23 May 2020 11: 32 New
      14
      Quote: Svarog
      There is a constant decrease in citizens' incomes, despite the fact that there are more billionaires.

      About this more than a hundred-odd years ago, the founders of Marxism still warned us.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Beringovsky
      Beringovsky 23 May 2020 11: 50 New
      15
      Quote: Svarog

      Well, if the calculations of domestic economists are correct, then Russia will nevertheless be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios.

      What's the worst case scenario? This is likely when the middle class (17000 rubles) will completely disappear ..

      Nonsense! They say that the middle class is when there is three meals a day wassat
      And immediately everything will be hurt with the quantity, as in Germany-Switzerland.
    4. Uncle lee
      Uncle lee 23 May 2020 12: 49 New
      12
      Quote: Svarog
      You can avoid the worst of scenarios.

    5. Vadim237
      Vadim237 23 May 2020 13: 22 New
      -22
      In the structure of Russia's GDP, oil and gas is 19%, but the services sector is 62%, and where is the commodity economy?
      1. St Petrov
        St Petrov 23 May 2020 13: 52 New
        -28
        Vadim, why are you asking logical questions to those who believe in the near end of Russia, fanatics?

        There is a maximum density at the shore. If you start to crush with logic, then these patient characters (20 years of whining experience) will again be hysterical, stomp their legs and click on the minuses.

        In the end, did you see how many dislikes Putin has on YouTube? drinks

        What they whined before 2008, what they whined now - and the army received more than 500 aircraft, but it’s not interesting for whining. This does not affect the noise level. What they whined in 2000, what now.

        The sad tribe. apparently, the highest degree of patience of the local sad opposition fraternity led to this. Here they suffer for a long time - then they have a psychosis obvious on the basis of expectation and mriy

        PS They will whine equally melancholy in the topic of launching a new ship and the construction of a new city, and they will whine in the subject when building a hydroelectric power station. Even when new planes rise into the air, there is still a waffle that will whine. They built a bridge to the Crimea - and didn’t they see those whining here?)

        1. St Petrov
          St Petrov 23 May 2020 14: 10 New
          -28
          well, don’t be offended, sad minusers. tolerate more - as much as the Motherland asks. soon I'll vote for constitutional amendments drinks good

          Undermining your war chariots, still minus and minus you. Hold on, liquid)

        2. adler87
          adler87 24 May 2020 08: 33 New
          +4
          It’s strange. So we live and work for these planes? Incomes of the population have been declining since 2014, and again you are talking about airplanes, Krymnash, and how badly you sing in Ukraine.
          1. St Petrov
            St Petrov 24 May 2020 12: 46 New
            -8
            I like what you write and how it disturbs you. I wrote about you as well.

            And he is our Crimea, not waffles, here you are right

            Well, in general, you will suffer more. Patriot

      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Beringovsky
        Beringovsky 23 May 2020 14: 25 New
        11
        Quote: Vadim237
        In the structure of Russia's GDP, oil and gas is 19%, but the services sector is 62%, and where is the commodity economy?

        Vadim, I’ll explain it to you very, very simple. In another way it’s obvious already will not work.
        The oilman got dough, went to get a haircut, bought a suit, went to a restaurant, went to a theater. All is well, all in chocolate! drinks fellow wassat
        He did not receive the dough - he did not go anywhere.
        And where is everything now? request
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 23 May 2020 21: 46 New
          +1
          You can not explain anything to me, because in a microeconomy, especially a macro is a complete zero. What kind of makar do you make out of 19% that oil and gas workers make 62% for services in the service sector? How do you get a fixed amount of money that grows three times from the fact that the oilman went and used the services? If oil and gas companies don’t get the money, the economy will lose the same 19% - everything is connected with each other, but the mass of money earned for a service or sale of goods remains the same; it can grow only from the growing volume of goods and services sold and rendered per unit time quarter a year but this requires more consumers and a lot of money in the state and abroad. It’s even easier if you take two bottles of water, one empty and the other full and start pouring - the volume of water you have will not change.
        2. Vadim237
          Vadim237 24 May 2020 14: 13 New
          -6
          Good advice to you - never explain to anyone what you yourself don’t know a damn about.
      4. SOVIET UNION 2
        SOVIET UNION 2 25 May 2020 08: 35 New
        0
        The basis of Russian exports in January-February 2020 was traditionally fuel and energy products, the share of which in the commodity structure of exports amounted to 63,4% (in January-February 2019 - 67,0%). In the commodity structure of exports to non-CIS countries, the share of these goods amounted to 68,7% (in January-February 2019 - 70,7%), to the CIS countries - 23,4% (37,6%). Compared to January-February 2019, the cost of fuel and energy products decreased by 17,5%, and the physical - by 5,9%. In the export of goods of the fuel and energy complex, the physical volumes of oil and oil products supplies decreased by 10,1%, including kerosene - by 29,8%, electricity - by 26,7%, natural gas - by 24,6%, crude oil - by 4,2%. At the same time, the physical volumes of export of liquefied gas increased by 49,8%, automobile gasoline - by 28,4%.
        In the commodity structure of imports, the largest share accounted for machinery and equipment - 45,3% (in January-February 2019 - 43,3%). In the commodity structure of imports from non-CIS countries, the share of these goods amounted to 48,3% (in January-February 2019 - 46,5%), from the CIS countries - 20,9% (18,8%). The value volume of import of these products compared to January-February 2019 increased by 6,4%, including optical instruments and apparatuses by 13,4%, mechanical equipment - by 7,7%, electrical equipment - by 5,3% . Physical volumes of imports of cars and trucks decreased by 17,6%.
      5. DiKoff
        DiKoff 26 May 2020 11: 14 New
        +1
        That’s precisely because the raw 5 part of the economy is too much, and especially since neither oil nor gas creates added value, so that oil and gas would appear as raw materials for processing, people wouldn’t invest in their creation, unlike steel, plastic and etc. And then 62% of the service is mainly distribution chains - that is, buy, sell, but not created by you, state medicine is essentially costs, state education costs, army costs, bureaucrats are costs, police are costs, etc. And then to engineering (the highest level of creating added value), construction and agriculture and high technologies, only 19 at best, and should be 80%. In China, only industry is 45%, and trade is only 9%. Feel the difference as they say. It can be in the USA an economy with 79% of services because the whole world works for them and they did the same for us, otherwise Russia with a strong economy does not suit them by definition. And to buy, and especially from them and their allies, almost all of this is for them to buy oil on their heads.
  3. Ravil_Asnafovich
    Ravil_Asnafovich 23 May 2020 10: 23 New
    13
    Something was combed out late, but yes there was no time, especially to one lover of ipads.
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 23 May 2020 11: 34 New
      +5
      Quote: Ravil_Asnafovich
      Something was combed out late, but yes there was no time, especially to one lover of ipads.

      It is necessary to scratch when it begins to itch, and if you start to scratch it late, then you will comb all the blood.
  4. Far B
    Far B 23 May 2020 10: 23 New
    21
    then Russia will still be able to avoid the worst-case scenarios
    Stunned. That is, what is happening now (yes, however, lasting for many years) is still far from the worst scenario? Like, there is no limit to perfection? Yes the author is an optimist in a vacuum laughing
  5. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 23 May 2020 10: 27 New
    18
    Not a specialist in this area, but yesterday it flashed somewhere in the tape that the gas "collapsed" well in Europe ...
    And the forecast is more or less correct. Only children believe that tomorrow it will be great. We, people who work and are responsible for children and the elderly, will have to restore our well-being by our labor. I do not hope for a handout "from above" for a long time ...
    1. St Petrov
      St Petrov 24 May 2020 13: 37 New
      -6
      I do not hope for a handout "from above" for a long time ...


      100 thousand rubles to every citizen?

      And there was hope, yes?
  6. Pavel57
    Pavel57 23 May 2020 10: 28 New
    12
    Stages of changing attitudes -
    1. There will be no crisis.
    2. There will be a crisis, but not with us.
    3. Everything is gone.
    1. Deniska999
      Deniska999 23 May 2020 10: 38 New
      11
      Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. All according to the scheme)
  7. Vladyak2000
    Vladyak2000 23 May 2020 10: 29 New
    22
    The goal of the current government is to maintain the ruble exchange rate until the date of voting. And then you can no longer bother. Possible dissatisfaction with the fall of the national currency will not affect in any way.
    1. Beringovsky
      Beringovsky 23 May 2020 12: 17 New
      23
      It looks like you got to the point, so be it. And after the "correct" vote for Zeroing, we will surely face a wave of anti-national innovations.
      We are already in 2018 with the election of the President Fishing season Russia passed. Ah, have you chosen? Get retirement reform, optimization, etc. We have nothing to be shy about!
  8. New Year day
    New Year day 23 May 2020 10: 29 New
    17
    predictions about the "dollar at 100" is not expected. 75-76 rubles by the end of the year - this is most likely.

    so let's see by the end of the year
  9. knn54
    knn54 23 May 2020 10: 36 New
    +7
    - People’s income will fall.
    - Investment appeal too.
    And if there is also a dry summer.
    In Soviet times, “the people and the party are united.” No matter how pretentious it may sound.
    Will the authorities cope with the situation?
    1. Svarog
      Svarog 23 May 2020 10: 43 New
      23
      Quote: knn54
      Will the authorities cope with the situation?

      There is not the slightest doubt that he will manage .. But at the expense of the people. The people will become poorer, more billionaires, zeroed out will be eternal and on the ruins will proudly declare that they managed ..
    2. sabakina
      sabakina 23 May 2020 11: 02 New
      13
      Quote: knn54
      And if there is also a dry summer.
      Nikolai, something incredible is happening with meteorologists this year. at first they promised "pink summer", then "summer will be one of the hottest", now "warmth will come on June 1". Can you really go to the gypsies? wink
      1. Beringovsky
        Beringovsky 23 May 2020 12: 27 New
        +9
        Aha wassat
        They recently promised a hot week in our region - it began to snow belay
        As in a joke: Today, raking from the porch of half a meter of variable cloud cover laughing
        1. Alf
          Alf 23 May 2020 22: 40 New
          +4
          Quote: Beringovsky
          As in a joke: Today, raking from the porch of half a meter of variable cloud cover

          You brought a joke. But this is a real forecast.
  10. prior
    prior 23 May 2020 10: 38 New
    20
    The state of the economy in a colonial country depends on the state of the economy of the country that owns the colony.
    How, at what prices the metropolis will buy oil and gas, so we will live.
    Everything else is useless vanging.
  11. mark2
    mark2 23 May 2020 11: 30 New
    -5
    I’m reading comments under articles with an economic focus and it seems that everyone wants to sit on two or more chairs. Those. everyone wants a lot of money, and worked
    industry like in Europe (where it’s already up to China), but at the same time do everything you do now. I will explain.
    We all must understand that everything that happens around Russia in economic terms is not only the fault of our government and ours, but there is also an objective factor that Russia, to put it mildly, is not liked in the civilized world.
    At one time, Russia tried many times to integrate into Western civilization, and each time it was unsuccessful. I think no one will argue about this. If this power is bad, then there were others. From the Rurikovichs, ending with the Romanovs and the Communists.
    The last attempt to integrate, with the sacrifice of a whole old, was also unsuccessful .. It was the apogee of the entire history of Russia-Russia-USSR. Russia has sacrificed everything. Country, population, industry, allies, friends. And what is the result? But nothing. Russia has even lost some of its sovereignty - the independence of a free economic policy.
    Russia cannot inject its rubles and honestly earned dollars into its economy. This is a taboo that is respected by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. All surplus, we invest in SWF. And only foreigners can invest in our country. why they don’t invest - it’s understandable. A country that does not have its own independent policies cannot be predictable in the long run.
    It would seem to break all unprofitable agreements and everything should be adjusted. But no. Not so simple.
    Russia is embedded in the system of financial flows. Tear everything that is not profitable for us and the sky will seem to us a pretty penny.
    We are all accustomed to the fact that we can freely do anything, the main thing is pay taxes. We can move freely around the country and the world. We can freely criticize the authorities and the Government. And the President gets criticism. We are even used to and perceive as a position the stratification of the population and the constant growth of billionaires and their fortunes. And, actually, what did we want? This is capitalism. With him, it is always so that no matter what the "eyewitnesses" say there, and the endless economists of the HSE
    And imagine, we are tearing it all apart. Everything that has at least some value flies out of the country along with those who snatched it. The country is disconnected from everything. Those. from all that is supplied to us because of the lack of this with us. from many foodstuffs familiar to us, and before Russia is blamed in the face, we cannot create ourselves. etc .. Is disconnected from the markets of the little that supplies us with the currency, which is then acquired what we lack or are not issued
    And what remains to be done? And to do is all that the Bolsheviks did. Under the sticks, to break the tendons, in an emergency mode, create everything anew. And again make sacrifices.
    Tell me, are we ready? Are our children ready for this? Are you ready to sacrifice everything you own today? And have to donate. And to many. Even with what critics are so dissatisfied with now.
    I think no.
    Let's not talk with slogans, engage in populism, but think globally. I already said on the forums that Russia had a chance and Russia safely missed it. The second time comes with even greater sacrifices.
    It is necessary to do something and it was necessary to do it yesterday. but revolutionary storming, harm. If we are not ready to make new sacrifices, then evolutionary work must be done. This is a long time, it does not guarantee success.
    1. sabakina
      sabakina 23 May 2020 11: 57 New
      +5
      Alexander, maybe socialism may not have died, how are they trying to convince us? wink
      1. tracer
        tracer 24 May 2020 18: 22 New
        -3
        Lenin did not die either. They lied to you all.
    2. Oleg Skvortsov
      Oleg Skvortsov 23 May 2020 12: 23 New
      11
      Alexander, your footcloth is about nothing. There is only one conclusion - if not Putin, then who ... if not capitalism, then - what ... And who ruled the Russian girl and rules that everything is so bad ... oh? Name, sister NAME! .. laughing
      1. mark2
        mark2 23 May 2020 12: 47 New
        -11
        Yes, here everyone has nothing, just for the sake of pluses
      2. spectr
        spectr 23 May 2020 20: 35 New
        +4
        Her. IMHO the message is that if Russia shouts with everyone, then all the "goodies" (in the form of goods and technologies) that are now coming to us from abroad will have to be created by ourselves.
        And the question arises who, in this case, is ready to tear up the income tax in order to pull the country out of the technological hole? And now it will have to be torn twice, tk. you will have to fight your way through "effective" managers.
    3. Beringovsky
      Beringovsky 23 May 2020 13: 25 New
      12
      I could not pass by, there are too many controversial moments and frank distortions in your comment.
      mark2 .... everything that happens around Russia in economic terms is not only the fault of our government and ours, but there is also an objective factor that Russia, to put it mildly, is not liked in the civilized world ...

      And how does this "dislike" prevent you from investing in industry and science? In your own developments and technologies and not in the purchase of foreign ones?
      If we had done this and immediately "dislike" would have been replaced at first by nervous fidgeting - and what are these Russians doing there? - and then ardent "love".
      To our market.
      Russia cannot inject its rubles and honestly earned dollars into its economy. This is a taboo that is respected by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. All surplus, we invest in SWF. And only foreigners can invest in our country

      Maybe this is not Russia can not? Can some specific personalities can not?
      For example, I can.
      And by the way, what is this Taboo, who imposed it and why should we even tolerate such a "taboo" power?
      . We are even accustomed to and perceive as a position the stratification of the population and the constant growth of billionaires and their fortunes

      Again WE? Who are we - you? Very bad that you used to, this is a bad habit.
      Not so simple.
      Russia is embedded in the system of financial flows. Tear everything that is not profitable for us and the sky will seem to us a pretty penny.

      Yes of course. If the capital ceases to flow away from the country, it will be very bad for us, still!
      It is white and twice two five.
      And imagine, we are tearing it all apart. Everything that has at least some value flies out of the country along with those who snatched it.

      Everything that has at least some value will remain in place - plants, deposits, forests, rivers and fields. As for the money of the oligarchs, they have long been there. Together with immovables, yachts and everything else.
      Here are those who snatched and really sorry to let go abroad. They should answer here for everything.
      And have to donate. And to many. Even with what critics are so dissatisfied with now.

      I don’t think so. The scale of the robbery of Russia now is such that even part of this money is enough to avoid such victims. On the contrary, the situation will improve greatly, although of course hard times will come for fat officials, a fact!
      1. mark2
        mark2 23 May 2020 13: 56 New
        -10
        All washed away my, as they put it, footcloths was one. Are you criticizing? Suggest! Suggest? Do it! Are you doing Answer me!
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. bk0010
          bk0010 23 May 2020 17: 52 New
          +5
          How much can this nonsense be repeated? Well attach to real life. I criticize the thief. I propose to outweigh. To go do? And then be responsible for that, right? Pushing a crime, huh? You, as an organizer, will you go, do you even realize this?
          1. mark2
            mark2 23 May 2020 18: 13 New
            -6
            I won’t go with you. And I will not go with anyone from this site. with such proposals, it’s not to rebuild the country, but in Kashchenko.
            1. bk0010
              bk0010 23 May 2020 18: 14 New
              +8
              Here! Glad you realized that. Heal and come back.
              1. mark2
                mark2 23 May 2020 18: 17 New
                -5
                But where is there to return? some whiners
                1. bk0010
                  bk0010 23 May 2020 18: 26 New
                  +6
                  Quote: mark2
                  some whiners
                  This is called realists.
                  1. mark2
                    mark2 23 May 2020 21: 33 New
                    -4
                    And the reality of your whiners is this: Who lives better than you is a thief. Those who live worse than you consider thieves and you. that’s all your reality. Class
                    1. bk0010
                      bk0010 23 May 2020 21: 37 New
                      +3
                      What kind of nonsense? Where did you get this?
                  2. Vadim237
                    Vadim237 23 May 2020 21: 54 New
                    -6
                    This is called whining but do not twist.
        3. cniza
          cniza 23 May 2020 18: 22 New
          +4
          Quote: mark2
          All washed away my, as they put it, footcloths was one. Are you criticizing? Suggest! Suggest? Do it! Are you doing Answer me!


          This message has a continuation: - "If you are afraid, do not do, if you do, do not be afraid, if you do not do, you will die."
    4. Petrol cutter
      Petrol cutter 23 May 2020 19: 32 New
      -4
      Expressions are always pleasing - this is the government, This country ...
      What exactly did you do to get it wrong?
      To move a certain machine ... Well, at least some in production ?!
      I personally do my crooked little hands. What are the rest fellow citizens doing ?!
      Are they sitting and discussing the actions of really working people?! ..
    5. olimpiada15
      olimpiada15 23 May 2020 21: 40 New
      +5
      As for the fact that "Russia is embedded in financial flows," I would like to draw your attention to the fact that strategically important resources are being exported from the country and the accompanying finances remain there. Those. a financial river flows out of the country, a weak trickle returns back. I look at the specific situation at the place of residence. The residential neighborhood grew in socialist times on the profits of the enterprise, which solved all the issues of the workers' families. 25 years have passed, now the enterprise is working, they write it is working successfully. During these years alone, five houses were built, one kindergarten funded by the population. Previously, utility networks were built by an enterprise, which did not affect wages or payments for utility services. Now tariffs are constantly growing on the basis of: 1) entry into an additional structure, 2) then the investment component was included in the tariff, naturally, the population began to pay more, there was no investment, the contract was terminated and a new company was found, 3) a concession component was added to the tariff. As for an enterprise that works without worries about the population, all transitions to the enterprise have become unusable, because they are not interested in how people can come to work. The situation is the same in economies. The period of "no money, but you hold on" at this stage is already declared "fat years". The country should have a segment of the economy independent from the outside, providing all the basic living needs of citizens, who should be sure that they will have a paid job, income to support their families and the necessary goods. Trust me, most citizens understand that food should be fresh. i.e. their production should be located nearby, in the nearest area. Products brought over thousands of kilometers cannot be fresh; to prevent spoilage, they are always treated with chemicals. You will not get poisoned, but you will not be healthy either. What is called the economy today is a financial bubble. Our rulers live according to the principle "everything is honest, without deception, with the wizard Suleiman." ...
      1. your1970
        your1970 23 May 2020 22: 21 New
        -6
        Quote: olimpiada15
        Believe me, most citizens understand that food should be fresh, i.e. their production should be nearby, in the immediate area. Products brought over thousands of kilometers cannot be fresh; they are always treated with chemicals to prevent spoilage. You will not be poisoned, but you will not be healthy either.

        Are you, you personally, ready to go into the field - to plow? Are you aware that sitting on a stool in Moscow as a security guard, the salary is twice or even three times as much as in the field ???
        Are you aware that crop failures and droughts happen all the time, and after that farmers have nothing to pay hard workers?
        Are you aware that even in the USSR, people left and in large numbers from villages to cities ?? And the USSR tried to fix the population in the villages - registration, distribution, high salaries ?? But he didn’t get this fix either !!!!
        It's good to talk about the "right" products .. The trouble is that now there are not so many research institutes to drive scientists to harvest potatoes
        1. olimpiada15
          olimpiada15 26 May 2020 22: 25 New
          0
          I am aware of what happened in the Soviet past .. There were both achievements and problems. It was unequivocal that, where there were sensible leaders, enterprises worked efficiently and people lived normally, did not leave anywhere. Where was the nonsense, they left from there. Example. We arrived as a youth group in a good collective farm. They immediately approached the car, divided into two groups, told what needs to be done, we quickly got the job done, left, thanks came for the good work. Another time, the same group came to a bad collective farm, nobody was there, a man came up almost at lunchtime, at first yelled, then said what to do, then a complaint about poor work came. At the institute we were sent for potatoes to a poor household. Indeed, they have not even harvested grain; there is no question of potatoes. There was no one to work on the collective farm, because everyone was engaged in the harvesting of personal potatoes. Where will the good results come from if they do not work? Now is another time, a lot of technology has appeared, labor productivity has increased. The problem is not that there is no one to work, the problem is that it is difficult to sell the manufactured products, either to give dealers for nothing or to rot. Network stores, they do not need sales competitors. One must be blind so as not to see the existing mechanisms for the destruction of the real economy of the country. The economy is focused on producing goods on the domestic market, satisfying the needs of the population, and are engaged in inflating the bubble in order to increase the numbers in the reports.
          Today I noticed. Our great liberals and marketers are all sitting in state corporations, on budgetary money. They don’t earn themselves, but they cut the budget, leaving the wild market beloved by them for ordinary citizens ..
          1. your1970
            your1970 26 May 2020 23: 44 New
            -1
            Quote: olimpiada15
            The problem is that there is no one to work

            This is the only problem, one ... not networks, not liberals, not state corporations ....
            Tonight I offered two thousand for transporting a cube of sand on a wheelbarrow. The sand is 50 meters away, but I sprained my leg. So my wife could not find a person who would like to earn 2000 in an hour ...
            "Oh, well nafig !!"
            And you want these people to plow in the field? Yes, even if you pay them with bucks, they won’t go ..
            And you yourself describe it perfectly, about the second leader who could not and did not want to force his ....
            1. Mordvin 3
              Mordvin 3 27 May 2020 00: 13 New
              +1
              Quote: your1970
              Tonight I offered two thousand for transporting a cube of sand on a wheelbarrow.

              Six months ago, I scattered 8 cubic meters of land in a radius of about 6 meters from a pile for 500 rubles, and there were enough people who wanted to earn some money. So do not talk about lack of hands. Maybe no one respects your wife with you, since everyone refused?
              1. your1970
                your1970 27 May 2020 13: 50 New
                -3
                Quote: Mordvin 3
                Maybe no one respects your wife with you, since everyone refused?
                -that is, knock down to the payday (with a return) and sell the curd - respect? But here not? You have a strange position ...
                And yes, today they "do not respect" me - and tomorrow they will rush to respect the appointed chairman of the collective farm (conditionally!) Who will drive them into the field to plow? Well, well .......

                and even more - in our roads they pay pretty well and on time+ they are at home !! not on the kulichkah. So here is a fairly decent leader of the road workers (cases of throwing are not known, unlike the watches where they are regularly thrown) persuaded three tractor drivers I know. None of them agreed - "it's better for a watch, worked for 2 hours and kick the bulldozer until the next delivery, or even tomorrow." At the exit, after all the expenses (travel, food, housing), it comes out less than his. - here you have to plow non-stop on the road ...
                Quote: olimpiada15
                At the institute we were sent for potatoes to a poor household. Indeed, they have not even harvested grain; there is no question of potatoes. There was no one to work on the collective farm, because everyone was engaged in the harvesting of personal potatoes. Where will the good results come from if they do not work?
                -and this was an absolute routine ..... I didn’t raise potatoes less than 2 fists the size of the earth on an urgent basis in the Gorky Region on the field; I had to pick up 2 Urals and KAMAZ, this was the norm .... everything else was stupidly thrown into the fields that year, the collective farms in the neighborhood, during Soviet times, WITHOUT outbids, liberals, oligarchs and networkers ...
                And also remind me - what was the name of the Soviet guest workers at ZIL? "Limit"? A couple and then Muscovites did not burst on the conveyor plow,not?


                Z.Y. You can’t bear your attitude towards me ....
                1. Mordvin 3
                  Mordvin 3 27 May 2020 19: 06 New
                  0
                  Quote: your1970
                  Muscovites did not rush to plow the conveyor, no?

                  I am not a Muscovite.
                  1. your1970
                    your1970 28 May 2020 13: 03 New
                    -1
                    Quote: mordvin xnumx
                    Quote: your1970
                    Muscovites did not rush to plow the conveyor, no?

                    I am not a Muscovite.

                    As far as I remember, did you work at ZIL?
  12. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 23 May 2020 12: 21 New
    +7
    Let them build large infrastructure projects .... money for this can be printed and it will not lead to inflation ... but to build a shaft of what. And the people will be occupied and allies will work.
    1. cniza
      cniza 23 May 2020 18: 20 New
      +2
      It's hard to get them to work, but they have no choice ...
    2. Vadim237
      Vadim237 23 May 2020 21: 56 New
      -4
      How much money you print for how much inflation will grow - 1 trillion printed rubles issued to the economy = 1% of inflation.
      1. Zaurbek
        Zaurbek 24 May 2020 07: 22 New
        +1
        It is not so simple. If you print them and give them away with salaries or give them to the bank, then it will be so. If this goes to the construction of a bridge or a plant, then inflation is thought differently.
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 24 May 2020 14: 21 New
          -3
          I didn’t write exactly what it was - it’s all about, but in the end, all this unsecured money during construction, the purchase of materials for construction, fuel, energy will go to banks and yes, this amount of money will not change for workers' salaries and will add inflation as you say.
          1. Zaurbek
            Zaurbek 24 May 2020 15: 22 New
            +1
            This is the literacy of the economic leadership ...
  13. iouris
    iouris 23 May 2020 12: 21 New
    12
    Watch your hands: in the USSR, planning of the economy was carried out according to natural indicators: millions of pieces, millions of tons, millions of ton-kilometers ... Friends of the US dollar work only with some indices that are appointed by rating agencies - income regulators of (American) TNCs. They show on TV that the Russian economy is run by "financiers", "lawyers" and "economists" - managers, HSE graduates and trainees at American universities who are apparently not very interested in the problems of the Indians. At the same time, the presidency somehow ensures the "security of the state." How does it work (or not very well) ??
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 23 May 2020 22: 06 New
      -6
      The planned economy - which calculated how much and what the country would consume and to whom to distribute how much thanks to this "most precise" system of the USSR, and fell into a crisis of total deficit in the 80s when people had a lot of money but could not buy anything since all goods were snatched up instantly.
  14. GMM
    GMM 23 May 2020 12: 51 New
    13
    Negative growth is also a dynamic, which means the economy is still alive, does not stagnate, there is still something to steal ...
  15. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx 23 May 2020 13: 08 New
    13
    However, according to Reshetnikov, already in the fourth quarter the process will take the opposite direction, the economy will begin to recover after the damage.

    What successes did this gentleman achieve in the economy BEFORE he was appointed minister, that right now we must believe his words?
  16. Vadim237
    Vadim237 23 May 2020 13: 30 New
    -13
    By the end of the year, oil will cost $ 60–65, but the ruble / dollar exchange rate is likely to remain in the region of 70–72 rubles, thereby offsetting part of the budget loss from the effects of antivirus measures.
  17. Shahno
    Shahno 23 May 2020 14: 01 New
    0
    Quote: Vadim237
    In the structure of Russia's GDP, oil and gas is 19%, but the services sector is 62%, and where is the commodity economy?

    The numbers, they are such numbers ..
    And for the year. And when you consider the mining and manufacturing industries. And where is the investment?
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 23 May 2020 22: 23 New
      -4
      Last year, Russia's GDP was about 108 trillion rubles - at the end of this year they forecast a decline of 5,5 - 6%.
  18. bandabas
    bandabas 23 May 2020 14: 13 New
    12
    And these "people" offer to save up for an ephemeral pension? Shame on the midgets!
  19. parusnik
    parusnik 23 May 2020 14: 54 New
    +5
    There was something to fall ...
  20. Junior Private
    Junior Private 23 May 2020 16: 12 New
    +4
    Quote: Vadim237
    In the structure of Russia's GDP, oil and gas is 19%, but the services sector is 62%, and where is the commodity economy?

    Nice to see people with a healthy vision of economic realities. hi
    People specifically hooked not on a polymer needle, but on a virtual consumption market! What kind of magical sphere of services is this that magically cleans the pockets of ordinary law-abiding taxpayers? People pay - people have the right to know why. Thousands of examples immediately climb into my head. There are entire industries here: Hollywood with the film adaptations of comics, and football players with the cost of one left foot of 50 million green ones, and insidious changing modes every year, and even dubious markets for cosmetics and pharmaceuticals ... you can’t list everything. We should also mention small business. It is also in little demand in real life psychologists, economists, masters of pedicure and tattoos, managers, restaurateurs and other whole army of loafers. And for all this very conditionally necessary, SUDDENLY, we pay. Yes, it turns out a man himself and his own enemy.
    And this market is starting to fall. Given the debt burden of the population and industries, the fun also does not increase. Here we have the WORLD economy.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 23 May 2020 22: 33 New
      -5
      And these areas of services, but services are transportation repair industrial financial and so on and so forth - more than 90% of citizens in the country will continue to use them as they use, they make a very significant contribution to the country's GDP with their taxes. Even football players with a foot value of 50 lyam - they also pay taxes on money that sponsors from abroad give them for advertising their products.
  21. Yuri Mikhailovsky
    Yuri Mikhailovsky 23 May 2020 16: 16 New
    10
    A gypsy would have cost the country less ...
  22. Petrol cutter
    Petrol cutter 23 May 2020 17: 35 New
    0
    Good evening! I will be brief ...
    In light of recent events, will Crimea remain part of the Russian Federation?
    In fact, that's all that bothers ...
    The local population at this stage.
    1. cniza
      cniza 23 May 2020 18: 17 New
      +1
      Quote: Benzorez

      In light of recent events, will Crimea remain part of the Russian Federation?


      And why do you have any doubts? What disturbs you and makes you doubt?
      1. Petrol cutter
        Petrol cutter 23 May 2020 18: 28 New
        +3
        There are various conversations in popular circles.
        After all, we understand that the situation is very ambiguous unfortunately. Therefore, people are worried, and so am I (actually). As if we were not exchanged for something. In return for some political benefits ...
        1. cniza
          cniza 23 May 2020 18: 59 New
          +4
          Get out of your head it’s not possible from the word at all, but rumors and gossip - you know where they come from ...
  23. Grading
    Grading 23 May 2020 17: 36 New
    +8
    Quote: ROSS 42
    However, according to Reshetnikov, already in the fourth quarter the process will take the opposite direction, the economy will begin to recover after the damage.

    What successes did this gentleman achieve in the economy BEFORE he was appointed minister, that right now we must believe his words?

    Night of long buckets, Moscow complete destruction of the independence of municipalities in the PC closed the railway line Perm 1 Perm 2 passengers get by buses, in the construction market created conditions under which most of the developers either went bankrupt or went to the neighboring regions of Bashkiria Tatarstan most of his team was either under investigation or received terms in the ranks of the team were brothers of the local authority, included the bookmaker horse "Fonbet" in the backbone. here is a short portrait of the minister
  24. cniza
    cniza 23 May 2020 18: 15 New
    +1
    It remains only to be inspired by the words: "The road will be overpowered by the walking one."


    And when we had it differently.
  25. A.TOR
    A.TOR 23 May 2020 18: 50 New
    +5
    Somehow, Mr. Reshetnikov argues ...
    The European Union is confidently talking about a decline of up to 9%, for example, Christine Lagarde (ECB), and she also pointed out the possibility of a 15% drop. But! There is tremendous support for business, the entire economy.
    And what is the "support" in Russia? And by what means?
    However, according to Reshetnikov, already in the fourth quarter the process will take the opposite direction, the economy will begin to recover after the damage. Although not by much, only a few percent, but its decline will slow down at first, and then the process will move from falling to growth

    - in connection with what? Due to what / whom?
    ONLY if the "coronavirus" restrictions are lifted.
    And they will be removed? And if not / will not be possible?
    The economy can be "helped" in a simple way: by injecting money, i.e. give them to people and businesses in order to revive demand. But this is not accepted in the Russian Federation - inflation will be. It is clear that the government is waiting for an increase in oil / gas prices: without this it - the government will not be able to do anything (because it does not know how and is afraid). But the problem is that - if - prices for energy resources go up, they will push the ruble exchange rate into the same growth.
    That is, domestic production will again be inhibited!
    Why?
    Because if the population receives income growth, then it begins to spend more on goods and services (i.e., demand increases). What will it give? Firstly, an increase in imports, and secondly, an increase in prices.
    Specifically for Russia (and not only) - everything imported becomes more accessible, respectively, its products are sold poorly.
    By the way, and when selling abroad will be the same picture.
    That is - hello stagnation of production (and unemployment) in industry!
    (all who can run to extract oil / gas because they pay money there, moreover, regularly and a lot).

    That is, in "mining", with the rise in prices for raw materials, everything will begin to grow and bloom, and - what is important (!!) together / simultaneously with the rise in the ruble's price and a decrease in the production of something real.

    The next stage is "luxurious" in nature and consequences:
    industry was primitive, lagging behind external competitors, and the price of raw materials fell (or it became unprofitable to extract raw materials, or it even ran out).

    I would like readers of VO to understand this when writing fairy tales.
  26. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 23 May 2020 19: 12 New
    +4
    [quote = Paul Siebert] Yes, and Reshetnikov himself ruled in Perm in such a way that "thanks, no need", [/ quote]
    [quote = Paul Siebert] And now - come on, you went to Moscow for a promotion. [/ quote
    The more he ran into the same place, the more valuable the shot in the eyes of the Kremlin authorities.
  27. 7,62h54
    7,62h54 23 May 2020 21: 06 New
    +4
    Effective managers grabbed the pandemic like a straw. Saw away under the guise and money, and cover up your unsuitability, write off everything to the virus.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 24 May 2020 14: 39 New
      -5
      You would probably do better - would you share your knowledge of how you can keep the economy growing when you have 30% of the services sector and production stopped as there is no demand for goods and services around the world - you will print money in trillions of rubles in the 90th this already went to banknotes three more zeros appeared to distribute the entire NWF from the turntable for a maximum of three months with this scale of distribution for 76 million people, the remaining amount will go to close the hole in the budget, and then what will you do to borrow money abroad - no one will borrow from Russia will not give all loans for us there are closed.
      1. 7,62h54
        7,62h54 24 May 2020 14: 55 New
        +2
        This fall has been a long time. It didn’t start in the month of March. The crown is just a litmus.
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 24 May 2020 18: 04 New
          -5
          Such a fall is due only to the fact that the whole world has quarantined and no government will do anything with this.
          1. 7,62h54
            7,62h54 24 May 2020 19: 57 New
            +2
            I have the feeling that I’ve just talked with someone from the government.
            1. Vadim237
              Vadim237 25 May 2020 01: 02 New
              -4
              No, you temporarily moved from your fairy-tale world to reality.
  28. sagitch
    sagitch 24 May 2020 14: 47 New
    +2
    They will never let us live in peace now. We tried a model with a crisis, a ride. Now it will always be so! The people’s affairs are getting better, they begin, immediately collapse, crisis. While in power, these insatiable, so be it. They have greedy competition at our expense. If the economy has been in such a recession, already since 2008, where did they, the oligarchs, get more and more money from, and whose, is not our money with you ??
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 24 May 2020 18: 07 New
      -3
      A market economy means growth and stagnation crises and ups - get used to it, the whole world lives like this.
  29. awdrgy
    awdrgy 24 May 2020 22: 51 New
    +1
    And what is this man constantly showing him in the photo? Erysipelas are some kind of unpleasant Nenashenskaya
  30. Roman123567
    Roman123567 26 May 2020 10: 04 New
    0
    Nevertheless, it will be able to achieve the pre-coronavirus level of Russia's GDP no earlier than I – II quarter of 2022.


    Simply put - if the virus did not exist, Putin would have to come up with it ..