Military Review

Oil-exporting countries are concerned about the victory of the PNS over Haftar in Al-Vatiya: reasons are identified

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Oil-exporting countries are concerned about the victory of the PNS over Haftar in Al-Vatiya: reasons are identified

The military success of the forces, which are designated as the forces of the Government of National Accord in Libya, can only be local to Fayez Saraj and those who support him from abroad. However, such success may be contrary to the interests of most major players in the oil market. It should be noted that several large oil fields continue to be under the control of the Libyan National Army.


The columnist Salma El Vardani, in a World Oil publication covering world events related to the oil market, writes that Khalifa Haftar “has long complained to the authorities in Tripoli that they lock all the proceeds from the sale of oil to themselves, without doing a fair redistribution of such income. " It was with this that the partial blockage of port infrastructure and oil production at large fields arranged by him was connected.

The material says that in order to consolidate success in the area of ​​Al-Vatiya airbase, the troops of Saraj and his Turkish allies may try to take complete control of the western oil fields of Sharar and Al-Fil.

From the article:

But Haftar’s past actions suggest that he will not end the blockade of oil ports and will not allow him to open fields unless a deal is concluded that gives him a share of Libyan energy revenues.

It is noted that if in 2019 Libyan exports reached a value of 1,2 million barrels, now it has collapsed to 90 thousand barrels per day. At the same time, in 2019, about 400 thousand barrels were exported precisely from the Sharara and El-Fila fields. And today, it is Khalifa Haftar’s forces that do not allow Saraj to “unpack” the deposits and begin production at the level of December 2019. World Oil writes that if Saraj succeeds, then Libyan oil exports will skyrocket dozens of times and strike at the agreements that it was so difficult to reach recently with OPEC + key players in the oil market.



But the problem is that Libya itself does not fully extend the new OPEC + agreement. In other words, the restrictions on oil production in Libya today are provided precisely by the forces of Marshal Haftar. And if the LNA is defeated, then Libyan oil will flood the world market, again dropping prices.

It is for this reason that in the West, and even among oil exporting countries, they are concerned that the forces of Saraj, supported by Erdogan, won in Al-Vatiyah. The West clearly needs a balance of power in Libya, and the victory of either side at the moment does not meet the interests of the West and the exporting countries.

The article by Salma El Vardani gives the opinion of Bill Farren, the head of the Canadian consulting company RS Energy Group. He says that even after the defeat of Haftar in al-Watiyah, it is unlikely that the Government of National Accord will win in all of Libya.
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  1. Vasyan1971
    Vasyan1971 21 May 2020 17: 24 New
    +2
    The West clearly needs a balance of power in Libya, and the victory of either side at the moment does not meet the interests of the West and the exporting countries.

    Here it is. It is not necessary to search for "who benefits" for a long time. This means that the war will continue and continue to breed, no matter how the natives puffed up.
    1. Sergey39
      Sergey39 21 May 2020 17: 42 New
      +2
      And PNS does not shine there. All will remain with their own. And Russia’s quick rise in oil prices is not profitable. Therefore, Haftar was put aside. Then they will replace him with Saif Gaddafi.
      1. Sling cutter
        Sling cutter 21 May 2020 17: 54 New
        +6
        Quote: Sergey39
        All will remain with their own. And Russia’s quick rise in oil prices is not profitable. Therefore, Haftar was put aside

        Tell us, but what is still beneficial for Russia?
        1. knn54
          knn54 21 May 2020 18: 04 New
          +3
          Russia needs a stable price, of course not the minimum.
          "Pulling" the ruble is not good for the economy.
          1. businessv
            businessv 21 May 2020 20: 20 New
            +1
            Quote: knn54
            "Pulling" the ruble is not good for the economy.

            Interestingly, do you know who exactly the ruble is "pulling" !? Just don't talk about its volatility please - it's impossible to listen to this nonsense!
          2. Voltsky
            Voltsky 21 May 2020 21: 17 New
            -1
            and where does the oil and the ruble jump in here ?!
        2. SSR
          SSR 21 May 2020 21: 36 New
          +1
          Quote: Stroporez
          Tell us, but what is still beneficial for Russia?

          + So many strategists and tactics that it’s scary to read comments.
          1. "victory" - aaa we will tear everyone!
          2. Knocked out or retreated, - prosralipolymers (((.
          3. I read stupid comments about Armor, UAVs, about drums UAVs .... How many "bucks to potryndet" have gathered here! They and ratings are crazy sitting, day and night sawing. A circle of degraded souls.
          Comrades, who knows how and where is SSI? Hello to Igor76.
        3. Sergey39
          Sergey39 21 May 2020 22: 45 New
          +1
          Quote: Stroporez
          Tell us, but what is still beneficial for Russia?

          What is incomprehensible here? Remove shale from the market. To do this, you need a low oil price since another six months.
          1. Grits
            Grits 22 May 2020 04: 29 New
            0
            Quote: Sergey39
            What is incomprehensible here? Remove shale from the market. To do this, you need a low oil price since another six months.

            So what? After the drought, it will still rain and the mushrooms will climb again ...
            1. Vasyan1971
              Vasyan1971 22 May 2020 11: 46 New
              0
              Quote: Gritsa
              After the drought, it will still rain and the mushrooms will climb again ...

              And the drought still needs to be overcome. And then someone else will pick mushrooms.
      2. Revolver
        Revolver 21 May 2020 22: 12 New
        +1
        Quote: Sergey39
        And PNS does not shine there. All will remain with their own. And Russia’s quick rise in oil prices is not profitable. Therefore, Haftar was put aside. Then they will replace him with Saif Gaddafi.

        Personally, I think that Haftar, that his opponents, as they are called there, are purple. But to see how Erdogan was vindicated in a sensitive place, a hot thread would be nice. You don’t even have to watch it yourself, just read the news report from the eyewitness would be enough. He has not yet answered much, in particular for the SU-24.
    2. vadim dok
      vadim dok 21 May 2020 18: 33 New
      0
      Marshal Haftar was trained in the Russian Federation TWICE! He also contacted Shoigu by radio from the aircraft carrier "Admiral Kuznetsov", there is a video and a photo where the "cook" Prigozhin is present during the conversation! Then the RF Ministry of Defense wrote that he was responsible for feeding the Marshal! so who benefits from this mess? The answer is - EVERYONE!
      1. businessv
        businessv 21 May 2020 20: 27 New
        -2
        Quote: vadim dok
        so who benefits from this mess? The answer is ALL!

        Libya was stupidly leaked by Medvedev, it's a fact. A stable and rich country that is on good terms with Russia is unprofitable .... to whom? The one who started the "mess" - the mattress. Don't lump everything together! Flies - separately, cutlets - respectively! Today, Erdogan, an ally of the mattress, rolled out his lip on the resources of Libya, so we conclude: the conflict has reached a dead end, a way out of which will be found with the victory of one of the leaders. IMHO for us is more profitable - Haftar.
        1. Revolver
          Revolver 21 May 2020 21: 42 New
          -2
          Trump’s relations with Erdogan are so tense that they even appeared like leaks of information that perhaps the Turks would be thrown out of NATO.
      2. Oleg Zorin
        Oleg Zorin 21 May 2020 20: 44 New
        +1
        And besides, the "marshal" lived in America for 20+ years and even was (and maybe still) its citizen
      3. Vasyan1971
        Vasyan1971 21 May 2020 21: 34 New
        0
        Quote: vadim dok
        Marshal Haftar TWICE studied in the Russian Federation!

        So what? Dudayev, for example, also "studied" in the Russian Federation and not twice, but all his life. What does this prove?
    3. FIR FIR
      FIR FIR 21 May 2020 19: 01 New
      +1
      Haftar is too old ... And so it would be possible to put on a sensible politician and restore order in this necessary and important country ....
  2. Theodore
    Theodore 21 May 2020 17: 24 New
    0
    That would help Hufftar! With conditions.
    1. Astra wild
      Astra wild 21 May 2020 17: 52 New
      +3
      Colleague Fedor, somehow I am not very interested in the events in Libya, so I could be wrong. Probably, Haftaru: "a friend of the wizard will show a movie for free", but only "one session" so that he could restrain Saraj. Now victory in Libya by either side is not in the interests of OPEC
      1. businessv
        businessv 21 May 2020 20: 30 New
        -1
        Quote: Astra wild
        Now victory in Libya on either side does not meet OPEC interests
        The victory of "our" side in Libya will in every way meet our, and therefore OPEC +, interests!
  3. poquello
    poquello 21 May 2020 17: 28 New
    +3
    ))))) suddenly out of nowhere the air force increased
    1. Ravil_Asnafovich
      Ravil_Asnafovich 21 May 2020 20: 14 New
      +1
      Allah helped!
  4. Pytnik
    Pytnik 21 May 2020 17: 44 New
    +6
    Unknown fighters launched a missile strike on Turkish warships near the borders of Libya.

    According to The Cavell Group, a Turkish warship was seen burning near the port of Cider, with witnesses reporting the explosion. According to some sources, the Turkish Navy warship was attacked by unknown planes, and, most likely, we are talking about the fighters of the Egyptian Air Force and the UAE Air Force, which actively support the Libyan National Army.

    “Libya: it is reported that an explosion and fire occurred on a ship east of the port of Cider. The Libyan National Army’s military source claims that the Turkish ship was attacked when it tried to approach the Ras Lanuf area, The Cavell Group reports.

    Among other things, several sources report that MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 bombers, which are only armed with Egypt, were seen in the skies over Libya, which does not exclude the possibility that the Egyptian side attacked, which, By the way, she had earlier threatened Erdogan with very serious problems for helping the forces of the Government of National Unity.

    It is noteworthy that a little earlier the command of the Air Force of the Libyan National Army announced its readiness to inflict a crushing blow to the forces of the PNE and Turkey, using the air forces for this.

    ““ In the coming hours you will see the largest air campaign in the history of Libya, ”said Air Force Chief Haftara Sakr al-Jarushi in a statement. “All of Turkey’s positions and interests in all cities are legitimate goals for our Air Force aircraft, and we urge the civilian population to stay away from them,” Bloomberg reports.
    1. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 21 May 2020 21: 38 New
      0
      Quote: Pytnik
      attacks on the Turkish ship were inflicted by the Egyptian side, which, by the way, had earlier threatened Erdogan with very serious problems for helping the forces of the Government of National Unity.

      This is how World Wars begin. Word for word, lingam on the table and went shirt tear ...
    2. Grits
      Grits 22 May 2020 04: 35 New
      0
      Quote: Pytnik
      Among other things, several sources report that MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 bombers, which are only armed with Egypt, were seen in the sky over Libya, which does not exclude the possibility that the Egyptian side attacked the Turkish ship

      The Egyptians are either too desperate and fighting guys or are not completely friends with the head. Interestingly, they calculated all the pros from the support of Haftar and the cons from the war with Turkey (a NATO member, by the way)?
      1. d4rkmesa
        d4rkmesa 22 May 2020 08: 37 New
        0
        It is unlikely that intervention in another state will be protected by NATO.
  5. Thrifty
    Thrifty 21 May 2020 18: 07 New
    +1
    That is, Haftar is needed not just as the leader of the armed opposition, but as a military man, capable of holding oil fields in his hands and preventing an increase in oil production from them!
  6. Break through
    Break through 21 May 2020 18: 15 New
    -3
    No Libyan deposits will not give Saraj.
  7. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 21 May 2020 18: 16 New
    +1
    From the text of the note it follows that the same players in the oil market have literally recently lowered oil prices to zero marks, and today in this way they want to again lift them to sky-high heights.
  8. pardonov
    pardonov 21 May 2020 18: 23 New
    +1
    The media reported the transfer of fighters from Khmeimim to Libya. https://news.rambler.ru/army/44218677-smi-soobschili-o-perebroske-istrebiteley-iz-hmeymima-v-liviyu/comments/?updated
    1. yfast
      yfast 21 May 2020 23: 34 New
      +1
      Agency Bloomberg is still ZMI.
  9. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 22 May 2020 09: 31 New
    0
    So they would take and help the ward ... neighbor. Erdogan through the sea manages to help his
  10. lvov_aleksey
    lvov_aleksey 23 May 2020 20: 40 New
    0
    I didn’t hear any more trash, who remembers the United Nations ?!
    ps the United Nations and Russia in Libya are one
    https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%93%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B6%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%B2_%D0%9B%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B8_(%D1%81_2014)