Military Review

Experts: Saudi Crown Prince lost the oil war

62
Experts: Saudi Crown Prince lost the oil war

From the global oil market, there are reports that Saudi Arabia is rapidly losing sales in Asia. It is reported that in June at the refineries of Asian importers of Saudi oil will receive a third less raw materials than they acquire in the normal mode.


This is happening against the backdrop of the fact that Saudi Aramco has begun raising selling prices for oil and oil products for foreign buyers. However, the management of the company is faced with the fact that potential buyers are not ready to pay more, and therefore refuse transactions in the previous volumes.

This gave experts an opportunity to say that players appeared on the Asian market, ready to intercept those segments that previously corresponded to supplies from Saudi Arabia. One of these countries is called Iraq. He is generally called one of the most unyielding signatories of the OPEC + (or OPEC ++) deal.

In the West, the situation is described as "panic shopping." In particular, refineries in the countries of Southeast Asia, China and India are trying to slightly increase their purchases, even despite the fact that the storage facilities are filled with more than 80%. The increase in purchases is due to the fact that it is profitable, as long as the price of oil is still low. In other words, buyers fear that they may lose the opportunity to save due to the projected long-term rise in prices for “black gold”.

By the way, growth continues. Currently, a barrel of Brent crude is trading in the range of 32,2-32,6 dollars. These are the highest figures since May 6, to which the average price level for a long time did not rise above 22-25.

The decrease in oil purchases from Saudi Arabia is called by the oil refineries of Southeast Asia, India and China "the oil war lost by the Crown Prince." Experts believe that oil prices fell precisely because of the decision of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase production volumes and the initial refusal to renew the OPEC + deal. Now Riyadh is faced with problems in selling the desired volumes of oil.
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  1. iouris
    iouris 15 May 2020 11: 28 New
    21
    The prince has nothing to do with it: CSA problems are embedded in the structure of the world economy and in the role that the United States plays in conducting and directly regulating global processes, as well as in the fact that the United States is the parasite that sucks blood from the outside world.
    1. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 15 May 2020 11: 35 New
      +7
      Quote: iouris
      and also that the US is the parasite that sucks blood from the outside world.


      Quote: iouris
      The Prince has nothing to do with:


      wassat
    2. ccsr
      ccsr 15 May 2020 12: 03 New
      11
      Quote: iouris
      The Prince has nothing to do with it: CSA problems are embedded in the structure of the world economy and in the role played by the USA

      And I think "what does it have to do with it" - he could not start his game on his own, without consulting the Americans in advance, at least in order to coordinate tasks in the matter of the market collapse and achieving his goals. It doesn't work that way. Obviously, Saudi and American experts miscalculated, hoping to squeeze out Russia and other oil traders, and did not take into account the coronavirus, which led to a drop in oil consumption worldwide. As they say, God helped us once again - whoever comes to us with a sword will perish by the sword. The Saudi prince experienced it himself ...
      1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
        Sidor Amenpodestovich 15 May 2020 12: 27 New
        13
        Maybe the Americans set him up just like Saakashvili did in his time.
        Like: "Don't deurinize yourself. Come on, dump. The Russians won't last long."
        Well, he rushed all the way, and ended up in a pool of his own cellular metabolites.
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 15 May 2020 12: 34 New
          +3
          Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
          Maybe the Americans set him up just like Saakashvili did in his time.

          It is quite possible when you consider that the Saudis themselves have become competitors to US shale oil. In this case, they are immediately looking for several benefits.
          Quote: Sidor Amenpodestovich
          and ended up in a puddle

          This is a short-term result - as soon as there is a demand for oil all over the world, they will crawl out of the puddle.
          1. Sidor Amenpodestovich
            Sidor Amenpodestovich 15 May 2020 13: 03 New
            -1
            However, for the time being, the schemers themselves receive the most soup.
      2. WIKI
        WIKI 15 May 2020 12: 49 New
        +2
        Quote: ccsr
        Obviously, Saudi and American experts miscalculated, hoping to squeeze Russia and other oil traders

        Russian oil exports in May and April through the Druzhba pipeline fell by 35%. All manufacturers suffer. https://www.interfax.ru/business/708608
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 15 May 2020 17: 57 New
          +1
          Quote: WIKI
          Russian oil exports in May and April through the Druzhba pipeline fell by 35%. All manufacturers suffer.

          But our oil companies did not die - so we will fight, albeit with losses.
          1. Rodimtsev
            Rodimtsev 17 May 2020 06: 15 New
            0
            Yeah, only at whose expense this banquet will be, Sechin and Miller, and the rest bureaucrats will not pay their money, and again they will start asking Vovka for money, they say give us poor and poor for bread, and where will Vovka get the money? That's right, in the population
      3. Lelek
        Lelek 15 May 2020 13: 37 New
        +3
        Quote: ccsr
        Obviously, Saudi and American experts miscalculated ...

        hi
        (IMHO), no. The Americans, starting a scam, always have a second, or even a third, version of the game in their bosom. It happened this time too. They urged the Saudis to weaken Russia by dumping oil prices, but they didn’t manage to "tear the Russian economy to shreds," nor to pioneer Russian sales markets. Disrupted its oil and shale industry and lowered the CA economy below the floor. The latter for the United States - on the drum. But America would not be America if, even in a bad scenario, it didn’t have someone. And yet she had - the same Saudis, instantly raising the issue of the terrorist attack on 9.11.2001/XNUMX/XNUMX, allowing the victims to file claims against the tamper of this terrorist attack - SA. The Saudis admitted that its organizers and performers were from the SA. Now the US has the motive and the ability to leave the Saudis in their sandals, blocking all their holdings and communing their assets. And what about the Saudis today? The point is seams, as Herr Engels said (although he may not have said that):
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 15 May 2020 18: 05 New
          -1
          Quote: Lelek
          (IMHO), no. Americans, starting a scam, always have a second in their bosoms,

          Do you want to prove that this crisis is in the midst of Americans? Do not tell, they themselves missed the lousy prince, and this is already obvious.
          Quote: Lelek
          Now the United States has the motive and opportunity to leave the Saudis in sandals, blocking all their holdings and communizing assets.

          It sounds beautiful in words, but in reality the main oil consumption is now in China and in the future in India and Southeast Asia, so the Saudis will find where to add oil. And the United States itself needs an influx of finances from abroad, so that someone blocking it will cost them more.
          Quote: Lelek
          What about the Saudis today? The point is the seam, as Herr Engels said (though maybe he didn’t say that)

          You would think that the whole world stopped using oil and found a new source of energy. I think that the Saudis are getting around much earlier than some predict here, unless of course they are drawn into the war.
          1. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 16 May 2020 09: 43 New
            0
            Quote: ccsr
            Do not tell, they themselves missed

            Do you think that you are able to calculate all the moves of the pendos? belay Global players can afford losses in one sector of the war (namely, the war is going on), but strategic victories will still be in their pocket. Moreover, the losses of the Pendos are calculated by the oil of the Saudis. "Our" government does not dare to call the language global players, because in comparison with the losses of the Saudis, our losses will be more.
            1. ccsr
              ccsr 16 May 2020 11: 54 New
              +1
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              Do you think that you are able to calculate all the moves of the pendos?

              Even without me they can count - I only make an assumption.
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              Global players can afford losses in one sector of the war (and it is the war that is going on),

              I completely agree - the main thing is not to play with the losses, so as not to be the victims of your own cunning themselves.
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              "Our" government does not dare to call the language global players,

              Our economy is not significant for the global world - why do you want us to be reckoned with as a global player?
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              for in comparison with the losses of the Saudis, our losses will be more.

              It’s too early to talk about this now - we are all the same self-sufficient, at least in industrial production, but the Saudis will not be so good if the oil crisis continues.
              1. Ingvar 72
                Ingvar 72 16 May 2020 12: 00 New
                0
                I agree, except for this -
                Quote: ccsr
                we are still self-sufficient, even in industrial production
                We do not have industrial production. There is a Chinese one. And the Saudis 30% of the budget is not oil.
                Our self-sufficiency is only resource-based, we have absolutely everything. But thanks to the "skillful" actions of "our" government, we are still at the Brazilian level. hi
        2. mole
          mole 15 May 2020 21: 49 New
          +1
          I am tormented by vague suspicions that until July, after analyzing oil requests, already the Saudis with an ally and his vassals will increase production. After which comrade Sechin will have a very pale appearance.
          Well, at the same time, Asian markets will be returned.
      4. mole
        mole 15 May 2020 21: 40 New
        -1
        Quote: ccsr
        Quote: iouris
        The Prince has nothing to do with it: CSA problems are embedded in the structure of the world economy and in the role played by the USA

        And I think "what does it have to do with it" - he could not start his game on his own, without consulting the Americans in advance, at least in order to coordinate tasks in the matter of the market collapse and achieving his goals. It doesn't work that way. Obviously, Saudi and American experts miscalculated, hoping to squeeze out Russia and other oil traders, and did not take into account the coronavirus, which led to a drop in oil consumption worldwide. As they say, God helped us once again - whoever comes to us with a sword will perish by the sword. The Saudi prince experienced it himself ...

        Article from the PH.
        1. Experts - not a single one is named !? Who are they?
        2. The Saudis simply changed the Asian market to the European one.
        3. Having reached the goal in Europe, albeit having moved to Asia, famously moved away the launch vehicle, which was the initiator of all events.
        4. The Asian market, the Saudis will return to themselves. The only country sounded in the article is Iraq in pr. that player.
        5. But we still do not forget that many technological schemes of refining are sharpened for a certain oil.
        Beat your hands early. The pH was guessed in full.
        1. ccsr
          ccsr 16 May 2020 12: 03 New
          +2
          Quote: Mole
          Experts - not a single named !? Who are they?

          Those who work in oil companies advise boards of directors. I don’t bother with specific names - they are even in less capital-intensive global companies of any profile.
          Quote: Mole
          The Saudis simply changed the Asian market to the European one.

          For what purpose, if it is more promising than the European?
          Quote: Mole
          The market of Asia, the Saudis will return to themselves.

          Why then had to change?

          Quote: Mole
          Beat your hands early. The pH was guessed in full.

          Yes, it seems that no one is clapping their hands - they just evaluate what the outcome of the crisis will be for us and what our losses will be. And who got it wrong, we'll talk later, when oil companies report for 2020.
  2. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 15 May 2020 11: 32 New
    +6
    What kind of experts are they? No links. Ask me, maybe where I will be useful as an "expert"?
    1. RUSS
      RUSS 15 May 2020 12: 19 New
      -7
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      What kind of experts are they? No links. Ask me, maybe where I will be useful as an "expert"?

      Now we have every expert if it concerns the fact that the West is rotting or someone has lost something, but not us
      1. Ka-52
        Ka-52 15 May 2020 12: 38 New
        11
        that the West is rotting or who lost something, but not us

        unlike you. You are an expert on the "decay of Russia". As soon as there is an opportunity to throw a stone, you are right there, with an expert assessment))
        1. Incvizitor
          Incvizitor 15 May 2020 13: 01 New
          +9
          As soon as it becomes possible to throw a stone

          He doesn’t need the opportunity. He’s ready to write nasty things about our country on any topic.
          1. Roman123567
            Roman123567 15 May 2020 13: 44 New
            0
            There is no point in criticizing the country itself .. for in a generalized sense it is just a word, and already it hides people, power, nature, culture, etc.

            Somehow I don’t remember that here they "threw kamenyuku" about Russian nature .. or, they wrote "nasty things" to the Russian people, hayale Russian languages, etc ...
        2. Beringovsky
          Beringovsky 15 May 2020 16: 26 New
          -5
          Quote: Ka-52
          that the West is rotting or who lost something, but not us

          unlike you. You are an expert on the "decay of Russia". As soon as there is an opportunity to throw a stone, you are right there, with an expert assessment))

          Well, you, we are flourishing in Russia, to the envy of everyone.
          Here are just some comrades irresponsibly using other sources of information, except pro-Kremlin.
          That’s all the problem, isn’t it?
      2. Tank hard
        Tank hard 15 May 2020 14: 24 New
        +1
        Quote: RUSS
        Now we have every expert if it concerns the fact that the West is rotting or someone has lost something, but not us

        There is such an opinion:
      3. Grits
        Grits 16 May 2020 02: 30 New
        0
        Quote: RUSS
        Now we have every expert if it concerns the fact that the West is rotting or someone has lost something, but not us

        There is not a word in the article about Russia and its place in this performance. But indeed, it would be interesting to hear a brief analysis - how Russia looks at this point compared to the CA in this matter.
  3. knn54
    knn54 15 May 2020 11: 33 New
    -1
    Iran. It looks like minus one.
  4. antivirus
    antivirus 15 May 2020 11: 37 New
    -18
    The strategic nuclear forces of Russia helped to withstand the struggle for the oil and gas market. The United States brought closer and downgraded (for how long?) KSA. it is their cash cow and the Arabs have reduced their quotas for the shale.
    Would we rather compete with the United States instead of the Persian Gulf Arabs in Europe?
    the struggle continues and the Americans squeeze the Russian Federation out of Europe -------

    "The Federal Grid Agency of the Federal Republic of Germany will make a final decision this month whether the rules of the updated EU Gas Directive will apply to Nord Stream 2."

    Does Sechin-Alekperov-Michelson-Miller have "formidable valor ..." to fight for markets around the world ???
    1. SOVIET UNION 2
      SOVIET UNION 2 15 May 2020 12: 06 New
      +2
      The German Federal Network Agency has refused Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the Nord Stream-2 construction company, to remove the gas pipeline from the norms of the updated EU gas directive, TASS reports citing a statement from the regulator.
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 15 May 2020 12: 59 New
        -1
        So let's see how green peas and Mercedes halves ???
    2. The comment was deleted.
  5. rocket757
    rocket757 15 May 2020 11: 41 New
    +2
    Prynets rolled ... that skating rink, the world economic system which is too big! If it accelerates as it should, it will completely ALL!
  6. Diver-SP
    Diver-SP 15 May 2020 11: 47 New
    +3
    Something the Saudis have not been lucky at all in the last year .. That is, the Hussites ’marching them off and firing at the refineries .. Now they are throwing them with oil prices .. Previously, the oil beh lived quietly quietly on camels and rode .. As if neighboring tribes didn’t bend them karamultuki .. laughing
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 15 May 2020 12: 27 New
      0
      We would have their "bad luck" and their "capabilities". And at the same time the standard of living.
      1. Pavlik K.
        Pavlik K. 15 May 2020 12: 41 New
        -5
        The point is rent - there are two civilized ways - the Norgis and the Arabs. Some are social, others are direct payments. There is a third - ours, dear. But since we do not have an economy from the word WAA, but there is a resource-distribution system, then the results a few ... mmmm ... others. The result is sad - we read the primary sources - and "the proletarians of all countries ...". One thing is not clear - in the 17th people were both richer and smarter than our current oligarchs - in the end they gutted everyone (who survived and faded away in France) and left only "for bread" ... What are they now counting on ...
      2. Diver-SP
        Diver-SP 15 May 2020 13: 00 New
        0
        Quote: Leader of the Redskins
        We would have their "bad luck" and their "capabilities". And at the same time the standard of living.

        Do not envy, a bad line .. The Saudis themselves are not happy with these riches, too many neighbors around them do not like it .. They can dunk and the United States will not save!
        And Russia has only 20 percent of proven natural resources during the USSR (this is without the Arctic) ..
        As the great Lenin said about the revolutionary situation, "The upper classes cannot, the lower classes do not want to live like this .." Everything has its time, the main thing is without blood and turmoil .. hi
  7. morpogr
    morpogr 15 May 2020 11: 49 New
    +4
    Apparently the prince calculated his game for a maximum of two moves forward and did not take into account the consequences of his moves. Namely, the collapse of oil shale in the United States and the position of oil carriers that inflated prices. Plus, a short-sighted attitude to the then growing pandemic.
    1. Diver-SP
      Diver-SP 15 May 2020 13: 06 New
      0
      Quote: morpogr
      Apparently the prince calculated his game for a maximum of two moves forward and did not take into account the consequences of his moves. Namely, the collapse of oil shale in the United States and the position of oil carriers that inflated prices. Plus, a short-sighted attitude to the then growing pandemic.

      Yuri thinks correctly! As they say in Russia, "Man presumes, but God disposes!"
      I remember that Putin voiced his "grandiose plans" in January, and everything went down the drain .. The jug was probably twice empty during these couple of months
      Here is such a bummer!
  8. A. Privalov
    A. Privalov 15 May 2020 11: 50 New
    +3
    This is not a war. The prince did everything right. A decline in production immediately raises market prices. Its oil is still here. Lays itself in the ground. It is cheaper than expanding storage. World consumption, for well-known reasons, has fallen. Not sold today - will be sold tomorrow. By the way, this situation plays into the hands of Russia.
    1. WIKI
      WIKI 15 May 2020 12: 54 New
      0
      Quote: A. Privalov
      By the way, this situation plays into the hands of Russia.

      What?
      1. Beringovsky
        Beringovsky 15 May 2020 16: 31 New
        -5
        Quote: WIKI
        Quote: A. Privalov
        By the way, this situation plays into the hands of Russia.

        What?

        Well, probably because the Russian budget will receive less than several tens of billions of dollars! This is an obvious victory for Putin. fellow
        Or not? request
  9. Ros 56
    Ros 56 15 May 2020 11: 55 New
    -6
    So it is necessary to present to this prince, let him pay for his jamb, and roll out his mining system for good and let him suck his paw.
    1. Tank hard
      Tank hard 15 May 2020 14: 28 New
      +1
      Quote: Ros 56
      So it is necessary to present to this prince, let him pay for his jamb, and roll out his mining system for good and let him suck his paw.

      They say that they are already paying for "shoals" .:
  10. AllBiBek
    AllBiBek 15 May 2020 11: 58 New
    +5
    The rich cry too, yes.
    And soon they will howl so much, because they accustomed citizens to a freebie and nifiganedelane, and citizens there are not even a quarter of the population.
  11. prior
    prior 15 May 2020 12: 12 New
    +8
    Overproduction in the field of oil production is no different from overproduction in other areas of the economy.
    Satiety is harmful, as is malnutrition. Another question is what harms more.
    Prynts decided to learn from his own mistakes.
  12. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 May 2020 12: 19 New
    +2
    Not all cats are Pancake week, especially if the owner’s hand is laid on the cat, which he did not understand.
    1. Diver-SP
      Diver-SP 15 May 2020 13: 18 New
      +1
      Quote: rotmistr60
      Not all cats are Pancake week, especially if the owner’s hand is laid on the cat, which he did not understand.

      laughing good The Sauds are thoughtful, why did they set them up? After all, everything was stable .. Putin is to blame)))
  13. dzvero
    dzvero 15 May 2020 12: 43 New
    0
    But about the personal future of the aspire in the article, not a word. How many coup attempts have there been in the last couple of years? Could the bi have predicted if the next manages to ... shoot, hang, shorten on the head, quarting, dig him alive in the sand to the very neck, not to make him sober ...
  14. Pavlik K.
    Pavlik K. 15 May 2020 12: 45 New
    +1
    How tired of the headlines - "lost-won" ... Well, there are no such concepts, not computer games ... I kicked up, spent (forced others to spend). But overpaid or not - let's see, by the end of the year it will be clearer.
    1. ccsr
      ccsr 15 May 2020 18: 16 New
      +2
      Quote: Pavlik K.
      But overpaid or not - let's see, by the end of the year it will be clearer.

      Yes, the results of this whole oil turmoil can only be estimated by the end of the year, and more precisely, in the spring of 2021, when the time comes to report and pay dividends to shareholders at the end of the year.
      1. Pavlik K.
        Pavlik K. 16 May 2020 00: 02 New
        0
        Dividends will be paid, I think, a couple percent lower, but what will be the market value of the share
        aramco, we will see (while it fell to the IPO issue level), (see the exact crowbar numbers ...)
  15. Avior
    Avior 15 May 2020 13: 17 New
    +3
    The problems are far not only among the Saudis.
    Nevertheless, every two three days we see an article about how they lost with links to unknown experts.
    All this strongly reminds one more transformation of a zrada into an overpower.
  16. Junior Private
    Junior Private 15 May 2020 13: 18 New
    0
    Quote: A. Privalov
    World consumption, for well-known reasons, has fallen. Not sold today - will be sold tomorrow.

    It is clear that they will sell. This may not even be discussed. But at what price - this is a completely different conversation. It is necessary to build on this.
  17. Glory1974
    Glory1974 15 May 2020 13: 56 New
    0
    Experts believe that oil prices fell precisely because of the decision of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase production volumes and the initial refusal to renew the OPEC + deal. Now Riyadh is faced with problems in selling the desired volumes of oil.

    Who benefits from this?
    It’s strange if the prince shot himself in the foot. After all, he may not be very smart, but for sure he has a bunch of experts and decisions are made collectively. Just like that, billions of dollars are not scattered.
    Therefore, everything was calculated in advance.
    So far, the surface is buying up bankrupt small shale oil companies by large companies in the United States. Which is not surprising, because the Americans have muddied this crisis. That is, the rich become richer.
    It’s impossible to squeeze it out of the market just because oil refineries are being built for a certain grade of oil. That is, there is some obligatory minimum. For everything else, a struggle is possible, but a long one.
  18. regdan
    regdan 15 May 2020 14: 07 New
    -6
    Speak as is the United States came out victorious.
  19. Tank hard
    Tank hard 15 May 2020 14: 19 New
    +4
    And what is not heard here "Svarog Companions", their loud slogans about the victorious Saudis and the loser of Russia? And so noisy, so noisy ... repeat
    1. zwlad
      zwlad 15 May 2020 15: 29 New
      0
      It’s too early to rejoice. The party is not fully played. There are many more moves in this game. But while Russia is leading.
  20. Lord of the Sith
    Lord of the Sith 15 May 2020 15: 03 New
    +1
    Experts: Saudi Crown Prince lost the oil war

    The most interesting thing is that from this news, the Sumerians and the trials will cry the loudest, even more than the Saudis themselves)
  21. borberd
    borberd 15 May 2020 16: 02 New
    +1
    An attempt by the author of the article to once again pull an owl on the globe. Question: How is it that the Saudis do not want to sell oil at bargain prices in Asia, with the fact that the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia was and ended?
  22. Normal ok
    Normal ok 15 May 2020 19: 34 New
    -1
    Another "news" without any links to sources. What are the experts, in what publications. And the author is again anonymous. In 2016-2018, at least Vestnik Mordovii was referred to laughing By the way, why did they stop taking news from there?
    1. mole
      mole 15 May 2020 21: 58 New
      +1
      "Mordovia" were referred By the way, why did they stop taking news from there? "
      Maybe the project covered up !? what
  23. mole
    mole 15 May 2020 21: 56 New
    0
    Quote: Roman123567
    There is no point in criticizing the country itself .. for in a generalized sense it is just a word, and already it hides people, power, nature, culture, etc.

    Somehow I don’t remember that here they "threw kamenyuku" about Russian nature .. or, they wrote "nasty things" to the Russian people, hayale Russian languages, etc ...

    But this is just lyrics.
  24. cat Rusich
    cat Rusich 16 May 2020 01: 02 New
    0
    Several years ago, all "progressive humanity" raved about "biodiesel" and "hydrogen engines", where is Yo-mobile? , promised to transfer all cars to NGV fuel. Oil is just "black slurry" from which gasoline is made ... and $.
  25. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 16 May 2020 15: 31 New
    +1
    It turns out Igor Ivanovich Sechin knew more than many "experts" who scolded him. Become sick, in a posture of late repentance (c). wassat