Military Review

Iranian parliamentarians set up Ahmadinejad?

76
It would seem that the epic of Iran’s attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of continued pressure from the West remained somewhere in the 2011 year, but last week the number of mentions of that very strait in the press again reached a critical point. The fact is that Iran decided to back up once spoken words with deeds, and therefore the legislative body of the Islamic Republic adopted a law according to which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is now quite possible on a legitimate basis, according to Iranian lawmakers themselves.


The representative of the Iranian Mejlis, Mr. Kudusi, introduced a bill to the country's parliament, according to which Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz for shipping. And after all about 80% of all crude oil, which today is produced in the countries of the Persian Gulf, passes through this waterway. The Kudusi initiative was supported by the Iranian parliament by a majority of votes, which made all “progressive humanity” in the face of citizens and nationals of a number of Western states literally start: they say that tomorrow is war ... Obviously, now the attention of the West is more directed towards his “favorite” Bashar Asad, but Iran seems to have been forgotten after the introduction of European sanctions (at least, it all seemed so).

But Iran is Iran - a large country with great potential and ambitions to not give the West even a hypothetical opportunity to claim victory over itself. That is why the law on the “legality” of the overlap of the Strait of Hormuz was adopted in the Iranian parliament. But on the other hand, at the head of Iran, too, not fatalists are sitting to give a lightning move to the adopted law. President Ahmadinejad is well aware that he only needs to sign the law and give the order to actually block the Strait of Hormuz as the “peaceful” NATO ships will instantly come closer to do their universal democratic good. It’s not for nothing that the “hungry” democracies of the United States Navy strike groups roam not far from the Iranian shores to democratize in order to satisfy their fierce hunger at the first opportunity.

In this regard, the "indecisiveness" of Ahmadinejad, which is better called healthy pragmatism, causes certain disapproval within Iran itself. Opponents of the current president say that here, they say, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad showed his true face, which in fact gives a grimace of fear to the western aggressor. In other words, in the fact that the Iranian president is not going to sign the adopted law, opposition forces in relation to Ahmadinejad are trying to use the forces in their own interests. And this can hardly be called a manifestation of great patriotism, rather, this is the usual desire to substitute the current presidential power.

The fact is that even if Ahmadinejad, the law passed by the parliamentarians signs and issues an order to close the strait, it will immediately be interpreted by the main world democratizers as aggression from Iran itself. And here, the Islamic Republic does not have enough information resources to prove that this is “only” a retaliatory measure for European sanctions against Iran.

It turns out that the law passed in the parliament in Tehran is no longer like an attempt to defend the interests of the country in the international arena, but a real provocation that can lead to a big war, compared to which even the Syrian conflict or NATO operation in Libya will not seem more than childish pranks. Then, the position of Ahmadinejad, which many supporters of the indispensable tough actions call soft-bodied, is not just sensible, but savingly reasonable not only for Iran itself, but for the entire Middle East.

But inside the country, the declared indecision of the president can cause a surge of anti-presidential sentiment. To prevent this from happening, Ahmadinejad decided, as they say, to make a knight's move. As his horse, he chose the course to actively continue the nuclear program. In particular, the France Press news agency, citing a spokesman for the Iranian president, cites information that the number of centrifuges for uranium enrichment will be increased to 11 in thousands of units in Iran. Recall that earlier the number of centrifuges capable of enriching nuclear fuel up to 20% was about 10 thousand units. At least, such information was provided in due time by the IAEA Commission, which inspected the Islamic Republic. At the same time, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself continues to declare that the nuclear arms There is no place in the formation of the military doctrine of Iran.
It is obvious that the West is not inclined to believe this kind of statements by the Iranian president, and therefore the confrontation can flare up with a new force literally at any moment.

If we consider the law adopted by the parliamentarians in Iran on the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, then we can say that its effectiveness is questionable. After all, by and large, the Islamic Republic does not even have the right to block anything in these waters, because the strait is divided into three zones of influence. Only one of these zones - the north - belongs directly to Iran, and the other two - to the United Arab Emirates and Oman. It turns out that the law really looks like a blatant provocation, which is an obvious undermining for Ahmadinejad. At best, this law can be viewed as a demonstration of Iran’s readiness to respond to external aggression at any moment regarding the West, but readiness, unfortunately, is not always identically equal to opportunity.

It turns out that the adopted law is a kind of double-edged blade that one side cuts the wings of the current Iranian president, and on the other - makes the cold feel to the western "friends of Iran" so that they do not relax with thoughts of an easy victory over the Islamic Republic.

In general, there is an informational occasion for new butts and pricks for both the West in relation to Iran in connection with the adopted law, and Iran for the West in connection with the tightening of “oil” sanctions.

Materials used:
http://www.mirislama.com/news/1714-parlament-iri-rassmatrivaet-zakon-o-zakrytii-ormuzskogo-proliva.html
http://www.interfax-russia.ru/
http://www.utro.ru/articles/2012/07/27/1061550.shtml
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76 comments
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  1. Sars
    Sars 3 August 2012 07: 45
    +6
    I do not agree with the author in everything.
    In the West, there is an opinion that the intransigence of Iran is based on the policy of one person - the president of Iran
    Ahmadinejad. And then, it suddenly turns out that the parliament is even more aggressive!
    1. kapitan_21
      kapitan_21 3 August 2012 08: 19
      +8
      Quote: SarS
      Iran’s intransigence is based on one person’s policy

      Sars,
      In Iran, President Ahmadinejad does not have full power! Among other things, there is the Iranian parliament and the country's spiritual leader!
      The most important thing is that they are all against the "democratization" of their state not by the all-out-of-the-world Americans!
    2. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 3 August 2012 08: 34
      +7
      Quote: SarS
      In the West, there is an opinion that the intransigence of Iran is based on the policy of one person - the president of Iran

      This opinion has no basis. It does not matter at all who leads Iran, in this case there is a redivision of the Middle East and Iran is the largest of the remaining uncontrolled US countries. Warriors need a reason; today, a court in America found Iran responsible for attacks on towers in 2001. Iran’s nuclear program is also an occasion. And the law on blocking the Strait-Iran must respond to aggression! And in what way he does it, not amers to judge.
      1. baron.nn
        baron.nn 3 August 2012 10: 18
        +6
        Alexander Romanov:
        What did the American court really find guilty for the September 11 attacks on Iran? Interesting ... It turns out that the "most humane" court in the world? And they still reproach us about the independence of judges?
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 3 August 2012 11: 36
          +6
          Quote: baron.nn

          What really the American court found guilty for the attacks of September 11 in Iran

          Yes, more recently request
          1. baron.nn
            baron.nn 3 August 2012 13: 42
            +1
            Alexander Romanov:
            Amazing! There you have the freedom of speech, the media and all sorts of other freedoms and independence ...
        2. recitatorus
          recitatorus 3 August 2012 11: 38
          10
          Quote: baron.nn
          What did the American court really find guilty of the September 11 attacks of Iran?

          Well, why should they be shy? Who needs that and recognize! Like at an auction - one, two, three - towers are sold!
          1. baron.nn
            baron.nn 3 August 2012 13: 43
            +6
            recitatorus:
            Good comparison with the auction! At them. by the way, all life is like an auction and is tied to material wealth. (loot)!
        3. datur
          datur 3 August 2012 11: 39
          +7
          baron.nn, ha ha you won’t believe, not only declared guilty, but awarded Iran for this allegedly their share and payment to all the victims, something about 6 lard greens !!!! amers as always anneal not childishly !!! laughing
          1. Ustas
            Ustas 3 August 2012 12: 29
            +8
            Quote: datur
            ha ha you will not believe, not only declared guilty, but awarded Iran for this allegedly their share and payment to all the victims, something about 6 lard greens !!!! amers as always anneal not childishly !!!

            It seems that earlier the amers blamed on the Taliban, then on Hussein, now on Iran.
            Truly a fairy tale about a white bull. And how convenient. They dumped one, it would be necessary for the other. Yeah, it’s his fault that he seems to have done the previous one.
            It seems to me, gentlemen, that in the near future the demolition of the twin towers will be hanged on Russia.
            1. Churchill
              Churchill 3 August 2012 13: 16
              +8
              Quote: Ustas
              It seems to me, gentlemen, that in the near future the demolition of the twin towers will be hanged on Russia

              Most likely, American justice is already working in this direction! But first, the Old Man will be blamed!
            2. Mobidic
              Mobidic 3 August 2012 18: 33
              +3
              Quote: Ustas
              It seems to me, gentlemen, that in the near future the demolition of the twin towers will be hanged on Russia.

              They are probably already making plans, they have already found Russians from Al Qaeda in Spain, laying the foundation for the future
            3. alexdol
              alexdol 3 August 2012 20: 10
              0
              They can blame, of course, anyone depending on their benefits, but for a long time everyone knows that these towers were blown up by the Americans themselves !!! And the whole subsequent circus - exclusively for suckers! It is difficult to invent something new in this world - it is appropriate to recall the same arson of the Reichstag ......
              1. Pimply
                Pimply 3 August 2012 20: 40
                0
                (Sitting down comfortably and stocking up with popcorn).

                And you can in more detail this tale again 8)
              2. Odinplys
                Odinplys 4 August 2012 00: 38
                0
                Quote: alexdol
                here it is appropriate to recall the same arson of the Reichstag ......

                I agree with you ... and the goals and participants are the same ... Zionist fshihisty ...
                The result of such intrigues is known ...
          2. baron.nn
            baron.nn 3 August 2012 13: 45
            +2
            datur:
            Well, it already smells not just plain bad. as one historical figure said ... This already looks like a medical diagnosis, something like criticism or a split personality ... Or maybe dibilism!
        4. Pimply
          Pimply 3 August 2012 19: 34
          -1
          Manhattan. Which is very controversial - but this is the decision of one particular judge.
      2. Pimply
        Pimply 5 August 2012 16: 07
        0
        Who leads Iran is crucial. Ayatollah Khameini now leads
    3. Isr
      Isr 3 August 2012 12: 26
      0
      What is the disagreement with the author? What's wrong? What is Ahmadinejad doing something wrong? Against Ayatollah went? Did the parliament not accept it? Against Ayatollah went? These are all games. In fact, as the Ayatollah decides, so they will.
    4. Pimply
      Pimply 3 August 2012 13: 08
      +2
      The de jure and de facto president in Iran is only a second person. The first is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
      1. Nir
        Nir 3 August 2012 16: 32
        +2
        Quote: Pimply
        The de jure and de facto president in Iran is only a second person. The first is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

        I agree with you completely, but it’s hard to prove to many on this site.
  2. Roman Skomorokhov
    Roman Skomorokhov 3 August 2012 08: 08
    +4
    Ahmadinejad is anyone, but not Aggressiveness of parliament is nothing more than working off his ration, because if Ahmadinejad had been led by such things, parliament would have been sitting quietly. To accept the law is one thing, to fulfill it is another. Actually, it's really a setup. "We passed the law, the president did not comply with it" - very convenient. On the other hand, if you do it, and everything will be exactly as the text says, democratizers and freedom fighters will rush in.

    Here the situation is similar to nuclear weapons - you can threaten as much as you like, you can apply once. They will threaten, execute a threat - hardly.
  3. Nir
    Nir 3 August 2012 08: 08
    0
    The fascist-Shariah regime of ayatol should be displaced, the people of Iran should return to civilization. This also applies to all other criminal regimes like Saudi Arabia. Death to obscurantism.
    1. baron.nn
      baron.nn 3 August 2012 10: 21
      0
      Nir:
      Well, you've already raked everyone into one piggy bank ... The Iranian president is elected by popular vote, unlike the monarchies of the bay ...
      1. Nir
        Nir 3 August 2012 12: 01
        +1
        Quote: baron.nn
        Well, you've already raked everyone into one piggy bank ... The Iranian president is elected by popular vote, unlike the monarchies of the bay ...

        The President of the Islamic Republic of Iran is no more than the head of the household by position in the government. Everything in the country is decided by the ayatols and the IRGC subject to them (analogue of the SS), they are the real masters of Iran, damned obscurantists.
        1. baron.nn
          baron.nn 3 August 2012 13: 38
          +3
          Nir:
          Why then are you not mentioning the president of the USA? After all, it also depends on many factors. such as lobbies, financial groups and corporations, parliament ... And the fact that personally between the President of Russia and the United States there are no insoluble disagreements, but in fact, on the contrary, suggests that Obama has some kind of force factor exerting on him a considerable influence.
          1. Nir
            Nir 3 August 2012 16: 29
            +2
            Quote: baron.nn
            Nir: Why don't you mention the President of the United States then? After all, it also depends on many factors. such as lobbies, financial groups and corporations, parliament ... And the fact that personally between the President of Russia and the United States there are no insoluble disagreements, but in fact, on the contrary, suggests that Obama has some kind of force factor exerting on him a considerable influence.

            And no one wrote that in the USA with etm everything is normal. We are discussing the Islamic Republic of Iran and I’m not a fan of the United States at all, although I understand that sometimes without their pressure some regimes maintain their ambitions and bloodthirstiness, although the United States does not exert this pressure from altruistic views, they have their own goals, but if these goals overlap, then at least something will be good.
    2. recitatorus
      recitatorus 3 August 2012 11: 41
      +9
      Quote: Nir
      This also applies to all other criminal regimes like Saudi Arabia.

      The United States has forgotten! That's where obscurantism is raised to the absolute!
    3. Ustas
      Ustas 3 August 2012 12: 32
      +2
      Quote: Nir
      The fascist-Shariah regime of ayatol should be displaced, the people of Iran should return to civilization.

      Sir, do you know the proverb about a foreign monastery and its charter?
      1. Nir
        Nir 3 August 2012 12: 43
        +2
        Quote: Ustas
        Sir, do you know the proverb about a foreign monastery and its charter?

        And you sir knows how many people cripple and kill the shoulder cases of the master from the religious police and the IRGC, especially in the outback where the mullah / ayatollah is the king and god, and by their orders they stone women and girls simply out of suspicion of treason or immoral behavior. Or they cut off my hands and I am silent about hanging on industrial cranes. Do not la la about a strange monastery, when in a strange house a despot idiot cripples family members, it is necessary to intervene and not sit aside.
        1. ... in motu
          ... in motu 3 August 2012 13: 31
          +3
          ... in Saudi Arabia, of course, everything is not so ... so about the monastery - to the point !!!
          1. Nir
            Nir 3 August 2012 16: 11
            +4
            Quote: ... in motu
            .. in Saudi Arabia, of course, everything is not so ... so about the monastery - to the point !!!

            We carefully read my koment above ... or even without reading something, write for the sake of only koment smart guy ...
            Quote: Nir
            This also applies to all other criminal regimes like Saudi Arabia.
            1. ... in motu
              ... in motu 3 August 2012 16: 36
              -2
              Quote: Nir
              koment above

              read
              Quote: Nir
              write for the sake of koment only smart guy ...

              become personal? Uh ...
              1. Nir
                Nir 3 August 2012 16: 59
                +3
                Quote: ... in motu
                become personal? Uh ...

                Not everything is so obvious and you should not make hasty conclusions without knowing the full picture. Respected, if you neglect this, you can be considered a "smart guy" or anything personally just an expression of your own opinion. wink
        2. Ustas
          Ustas 3 August 2012 13: 34
          +2
          Nir,
          Actually, this is their business, this is their faith.
          And we see every day interference in the affairs of foreign countries under the plausible pretext of NATO and the USA.
          So what, the Aghans, Iraqis, Libyans began to live better?
          Although I do not approve of violence against my people, I condemn real interference in someone else's life.
          Now imagine someone doesn’t like what you are doing in your country and they will come to restore order, so much so that half of your population will die and half will eke out a miserable existence. What do you say then? Or do you think it will not affect you?
        3. baron.nn
          baron.nn 3 August 2012 14: 16
          +2
          Nir:
          But in Iran there is no debauchery in which the whole West is mired! You look at their Western music videos, there is sheer debauchery ... No morality!
          1. Nir
            Nir 3 August 2012 16: 16
            +2
            Quote: baron.nn
            Nir: But in Iran there is no debauchery in which the whole West is mired! You look at their western music videos, there is sheer debauchery ... No morality!

            Debauchery begins in people's heads, in thoughts, and no one sets an example of the Western system of show of business and moral decline, people should live in a secular state where religion should be separated from politics.
            ps
            You lived in Iran at least half a year and not as a tourist, I would see how you would sing. And I lived there, I saw what clerics do, especially in the outback.
            1. Bismarck
              Bismarck 3 August 2012 17: 59
              +2
              Nir,
              Yes, we do not care about this ayatola, but if it should be buried, then not before Amers, at least together! And then we have homosexuals next to fanatics, and if Iran is a homeland for fanatics, then for homosexuals all the grass and rubbish burn Iran and the whole district with a blue flame.
            2. Rostam
              Rostam 4 August 2012 17: 01
              -1
              "You have lived in Iran for at least half a year and not as a tourist, I would have watched you sing. And I lived there, I saw what the clerics are doing, especially in the outback."
              ************************************************** ******************************
              ************
              More detailed from here Where exactly did you live in Iran and how did the clericals personally interfere with you? Our Uzbek comrade lives in paradise y Karimov !! OOOO
              1. Nir
                Nir 6 August 2012 09: 13
                0
                Quote: Rostam
                More detailed from here Where exactly did you live in Iran and how did the clericals personally interfere with you? Our Uzbek comrade lives in paradise y Karimov !! OOOO

                Do you know a city like Qum? Or maybe you know Mashhad wink , mohonro in eron haf mo gift shahari kum ba sheroz yashakardem, mulohotona taraf nadetorat mard wink
                1. Rostam
                  Rostam 6 August 2012 12: 36
                  0
                  avval yad begir farsi ro! Now it’s clear that you are a Gaster, who in Iran, to put it mildly, do not like you were only 7 months old !!!! poor in Kume and Shiraz ?? and made up an opinion about everything
          2. Pimply
            Pimply 3 August 2012 18: 19
            +2
            The fact that debauchery is carefully hidden behind screens does not mean that it is not there, is it? And let's decide what 8 debauchery is)
        4. El13
          El13 3 August 2012 15: 31
          0
          Oh well, Nir, where are the countries there, I don’t like what you personally do in your kitchen, peel the skin from potatoes, thereby reducing the useful product, which means you will need to grow it much more than if you ate with the skin, But in Africa hunger is at every step, and you are fattening, and I suppose you still clean it up in a general garbage dump, and not into food waste ... But I’ll break into my apartment, let’s teach mind, well, by chance you’ll have a kitchen I’ll turn it into ruins, but you’ll definitely remember how to peel potatoes ... And what do you spank children there too .....
          1. Nir
            Nir 3 August 2012 16: 14
            +1
            Quote: El13
            Oh well, Nir, what the country is there, I don’t like what you personally do in your kitchen, peeling potato skins,

            Dear, you yourself understand that these are completely different things, there are generally accepted moral and ethical standards that you should not go for. These obscurantists have already got their own regime when people are crippled for the sake of imaginary medieval senile dogmas.
            1. El13
              El13 3 August 2012 18: 54
              0
              Excuse me, are you the Lord God, in order to decide what is good and what is bad, to go into other people's affairs, and even with weapons? Understand at home, and they will somehow sort it out themselves if they become unbearable. Well and yes, about good intentions paved on the road doesn’t interfere with remembering ...
              1. Pimply
                Pimply 3 August 2012 19: 05
                -1
                And specifically about which countries in question, can you tell?
                1. El13
                  El13 3 August 2012 23: 58
                  0
                  Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Iran ... from early Grenada, Panama ... enough? or what did you mean?
  4. Delink
    Delink 3 August 2012 08: 20
    +3
    Substrate substitute. And Ahmadinejad chose the right direction, timely switched people's eyes to the uranium enrichment program up to 60%.
  5. anchonsha
    anchonsha 3 August 2012 08: 30
    -1
    It is difficult to judge what is happening in Iran. The people themselves must decide their fate, and not the American and European-Israeli shit-democrats, as always, in their own favor — to use someone else’s
  6. makano
    makano 3 August 2012 08: 39
    +1
    Most likely, I think so, the Iranian parliamentarians have prepared operational space for Ahmadinejad, and in their solution there are no contradictions with the president’s policy.
    1. Nir
      Nir 3 August 2012 09: 22
      +2
      Quote: makano
      Most likely, I think so, the Iranian parliamentarians have prepared operational space for Ahmadinejad, and in their solution there are no contradictions with the president’s policy.

      The President in Iran is nothing more than the head of the farm; all in Iran are ayatol and KSIR stuffed with sick Sharia fanatics.
      1. Rostam
        Rostam 4 August 2012 17: 09
        -1
        Gaster from Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan does not live easily (I understand you) But why lie to the country in which you earned? It's just not nice to spit in the well from which you once drank!
        1. Nir
          Nir 6 August 2012 09: 15
          0
          Quote: Rostam
          Gaster from Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan does not live easily (I understand you) But why lie to the country in which you earned? It's just not nice to spit in the well from which you once drank!

          A voice from under the veil popped wink
  7. Ataturk
    Ataturk 3 August 2012 09: 47
    11
    Now I understand the words of Khomeini. He is right, this is the last meeting before the World War. If they close the strait, then I think the worst pressure from the world will be exerted on them. This all says that.

    1) the whole top of Iran - kamikaze (which I can hardly believe)
    2) the top of Iran has agreed with Russia and China that it will begin to crush Western eggs and consequently they will support Iran (which I also do not believe in)
    3) WITHOUT BACKGROUND! JIHAD is Shiite, They understand that wherever they are caught they are waiting for them the same as Saddam and Gaddafi. Die like that with music.
    1. Rostam
      Rostam 4 August 2012 17: 13
      -2
      and you don’t worry for us! We’ll figure it out without you. This is your country now at the beck and call
      1. Nir
        Nir 6 August 2012 09: 18
        0
        Quote: Rostam
        and you don’t worry for us! We’ll figure it out without you. This is your country now at the beck and call

        Abaddet in IRI Internet allowed ... lol
  8. Alx1miK
    Alx1miK 3 August 2012 10: 58
    +1
    Iran’s shitty prospects.
  9. Tsar Ivan the First
    Tsar Ivan the First 3 August 2012 11: 00
    0
    repeat well, the Iranians are substituting their pride, you say sign it, and there we will deal with these Yankees angry
  10. volcano
    volcano 3 August 2012 11: 19
    0
    Well, I think that with Iran it will be much cooler than with Syria.
    And here we will move on to open threats to the West.
    Anyone can understand that Russia can go very far to prevent wars in a neighboring country, and most importantly, to prevent the west from entering the Caspian basin
  11. ... in motu
    ... in motu 3 August 2012 11: 44
    +1
    Good day.
    It is curious that the information on the "last meeting before the war" and the harsh statements of the Iranian parliament coincided with K. Anan's departure from the settlement of the Syrian conflict. And the uncle is not easy ...
    It seems like that. that he was told to leave. Time is a month. Total:
    1. At the UN General Assembly, a decision is made - to push Syria / and it doesn’t matter that the decision of the General Assembly is advisory in nature - the media will raise the bucket.
    2. Then the provocation / my opinion /
    3. Intervention / although they will arrange ... well, you yourself know ... /
    And the main question on tomorrow. What will our Chinese do in the event of such a development?
    1. Ataturk
      Ataturk 3 August 2012 12: 11
      +4
      Quote: ... in motu
      What will our Chinese do in the event of such a development?


      It depends on the provocation that will suit the WEST.

      To fill up the country, you need not only the desire for government, but also the people. This is about the West. Before starting a major war, you need a good reason to attack and at the same time remain on the ranking. To do this, do the following ...
      a) Lime catastrophe. Like September 11th, like Pearl Harbor and so on. Such a case is not enough.
      Here is the video


      b) Dictatorship - MOL human rights are violated. Genocide, Chem. weapons and all that.

      Turned out to be



      и



      Everything was imposed on Saddam at once. From chemical weapons to genocide. Gaddafi is a dictator and past terrors. Question

      What can they say about Assad and Ahmedizhyad?
      Assad - the dictator, the main culprit of the civil war in Syria, chemical weapons. Well, the maximum Genocide.

      Ahmednizhad - for now, we only have that they are preparing to acquire nuclear weapons. There are no facts. The Russian side said that Iran has the right to a peaceful atom. That is, either they, the West, should have a good fact, it doesn’t matter whether it’s true or false that they’ll have weapons or create 100 pounds.
      Or play Sudan's trump card. The national question. Azerbaijanis, Turks, Kurds and so on.

      It’s not a question of the Kurds, although EAST Turkey, and Turkey as a NATO player do not want to lose a regional player ... maybe a big chunk from Iran and Iraq will create something like that and autonomy in Turkey. I believe it.

      I believe that now there is a re-installation of forces, plans, as Shakespeare said, Life is a theater and the people in it are actors ... NOOOO human scenarios are already written not only by God, but also by the WESTERN world.

      I suppose something will start soon in full ... In short, everyone will get it.

      The answer is ... If a war starts, then Russia and China will be at least neutral ... MINIMUM !!! and if they participate, then far from Iran and Syria.

      So I say it depends on what they sew for Iran and Syria ....
      1. Bob
        Bob 3 August 2012 16: 16
        +1
        United States Navy strike groups that are “hungry” before democratization scour close to the Iranian shores - This is the author of 2 AUG stated - 1 is the Enterprise covering from the South, 2 is Eisenhower, located in the Persian Gulf.
        In such an arrangement, the Etherrise will be the most "suitable" target for a provocation of a universal scale, as it expects a "planned" disposal in 2013, so it is he who will be sunk by international terrorists of allegedly Iranian origin, in fact, by American special forces.
        And the fact that the world is now hanging by a thread, and depends on Ahmadinejad - is the fruit of a sick mind, this is another information trick of Western propaganda. Once again, I want to note the reasons for the impending war, its possible participants, and finally the timing of its beginning. As for the terms - the Olympics, as the experience of 2008 showed, is a very likely time for provocations and conflicts.
        1. ... in motu
          ... in motu 3 August 2012 16: 44
          +4
          About Enterprise is very logical ... +
          Now with chemical weapons there are 2a options for provocation.
          P / S / Enterprise Chemical Weapons belay
          1. Bismarck
            Bismarck 3 August 2012 18: 02
            +4
            Quote: ... in motu
            / By Enterprise Chemical Weapons

            According to the enterprise, it would be better to shandarahnut with Russian missiles! Two hares on the spot! wassat
      2. Pimply
        Pimply 3 August 2012 18: 27
        +2
        Well, what to impose on Saddam. A capacious nickname to his companion Chemical Ali? Or the war in Kuwait?

        Fake catastrophes about the 11 of September and Pearl Harbor - that's great. Just in the spirit of conspiracy theories.

        Have you tried Occam's razor?
        1. Yarbay
          Yarbay 3 August 2012 18: 45
          +5
          Eugene is of course fake!
          Are you unfamiliar with the documents for September 11th ??
          You are not familiar with the latest data ??

          The Federal Bureau of Investigation admitted that it was aware of the arrival of the radical Muslim clergyman Anwar al-Awlaki in the United States in October 2002, agents discussed the matter with the Colorado prosecutor’s office, and then he was released for an unexplained reason, Fox News reports.

          Anwar al-Awlaki, who was a U.S. citizen and hiding in Yemen, his 16-year-old son Abdelrahman al-Awlaki and publisher of the journal Al-Qaeda's international terrorist organization Inspire, Samir Khan, were killed in September 2011 as a result of a missile strike American drone. Since September 2009, 26 terrorism cases have been linked to al-Awlaki.

          “I really want to understand why this happened. We are going to send a letter to the FBI with a request to explain what role the bureau played in the release of Anwar al-Awlaki in 2002. If we succeed, we will set up hearings on this issue, if not, we will be forced to go to court, ”said Republican Frank Wolfe, chairman of the committee of the House of Representatives that controls the FBI.


          Assistant Director of the FBI Robert Muller Mark Giuliano, in charge of national security, confirmed on the eve that the bureau knew in advance about the return of “terrorist number one” (as he was named in early 2011) to the United States, but did not specify where this information came from. Anwar al-Awlaki was detained at a New York airport, because during passport control, the database identified him as the criminal against whom an arrest warrant had been issued. Giuliano also admitted that the FBI and the Colorado prosecutor's office were discussing the arrival of a radical imam. “Yes, such a conversation really took place, as is always done in such cases. If an agent is working on a case and a suspect arrives in the country, the system will immediately notify him of the arrival of a probable criminal, ”Giuliano said. Former FBI agents believe that there are two possible explanations: the bureau allowed the clergyman to enter the country to monitor him, or the agents hoped for cooperation with al-Awliqi.

          Giuliano could not tell the exact time for which everything happened. Al-Awlaki was detained early in the morning of October 20, 2002, and then FBI agent Wade Ammerman told customs officials that the arrest warrant had been withdrawn. However, this could not happen while Al-Awlaki was in custody, as in Colorado, where an arrest warrant was issued, it was only 5:40 in the morning. Documents show that the warrant was still valid and was recalled much later than the "terrorist number one" was released. The FBI had previously insisted that the warrant was withdrawn due to weak evidence in the case of the radical imam. The bureau called it a coincidence that the document was withdrawn on the very day that Anwar al-Awlaki arrived in the United States.
          http://www.bfm.ru/news/2012/08/02/fbr-priznaet-chto-upustilo-terrorista-nomer-od

          in.html

          Al Qaeda and the USA are twin brothers working for certain forces in America and Israel !!
          1. Pimply
            Pimply 3 August 2012 19: 07
            -2
            I really love nonsense, even once worked as a nurse in a mental hospital. This is called paranoia. If you really understood the topic, then all the non-sticky, inconsistencies of this nonsense would be clear enough for you. But you prefer to live fairy tales.
            1. Yarbay
              Yarbay 3 August 2012 21: 34
              +3
              This is not my nonsense)))
              A * nonsense * of the assistant director of the FBI, Robert Mueller))
              You are more in the subject than he))) ???
    2. Ustas
      Ustas 3 August 2012 12: 42
      +2
      Quote: ... in motu
      And the main question for tomorrow. What will our Chinese do in the event of such a development?

      Can the "spring" (revolution) stir up some thread in the USA. Thus, to switch the attention of the Fashington Regional Committee to internal affairs. Well, and to supply weapons to the American rebels through third or fourth countries.
      1. ... in motu
        ... in motu 3 August 2012 14: 08
        0
        Maximum - peacekeepers in Syria as in Transnistria, South. Ossetia. The trouble is the lack of initiative. West leads.
        Obama allowed to finance bandits in Syria. The cards are revealed.
        So, only quick and decisive measures / from political to military /.
      2. El13
        El13 3 August 2012 15: 39
        +2
        Quote: Ustas
        ... Phasington Regional Committee ...

        Fashington ... it's +5!
  12. Sars
    Sars 3 August 2012 13: 53
    -3
    Quote: Nir

    The fascist-sharia regime of ayatol must be displaced,


    What are you, my friend ......... (lying)!
    It is impossible to turn on the TV in your Baku: on one channel they only talk about Aliyev’s wife, the other four about him.

    Azerbaijanis who got to Iran envy the Iranians with "white envy".
    If not for the Iranian migration policy, your fellow tribesmen in Iran had already lived a couple of millions (at least a million, as in Moscow).
    1. Nir
      Nir 3 August 2012 16: 25
      +5
      Quote: SarS
      What are you, my friend ......... (lying)! It is impossible to turn on the TV in your Baku: on one channel they only talk about Aliyev's wife, on the other four about him. Azerbaijanis who got to Iran envy the Iranians with "white envy". If it were not for the Iranian migration policy - your fellow tribesmen in Iran have already lived a couple of million (at least a million, as in Moscow).

      Dear you somehow with eyes or something are not friends? What makes you think that I am from Azerbaijan? Are you by any chance a friend of George W. Bush’s younger great geographer? wink Check my box again and more carefully.
    2. Yarbay
      Yarbay 3 August 2012 21: 45
      +3
      You are deeply mistaken!
      On the contrary, my friend from Iran comes to us and for any money they buy apartments and try to obtain citizenship !!
      As for TV, let's not, although I do not like these programs, but you're not telling the truth !!
      It is the Iranians who get to Azerbaijan envy and do not want to leave!
      I often go to Iran on business so I can see how they live !!
      And Nir seems to be not from Azerbaijan))))))))
    3. Ataturk
      Ataturk 4 August 2012 00: 50
      +2
      Quote: SarS
      Azerbaijanis who got to Iran envy the Iranians with "white envy".


      You say that Azerbaijanis



      envy Persians in Iran?



      And what does the Persians have that which Azerbaijanis do not have? The only thing we don’t have is the killing of girls by the police. Even if it is a different nationality. Yes, this we do not have like them. We do not have such fanatics as Iran. Yes, we admit. What else? We do not have one to stick our nose into foreign countries like Iran. Yes, we do not. What else? Standard of living? Cuisine, Culture? The beauty of the country?

      Quote: SarS
      If not for the Iranian migration policy - your fellow tribesmen in Iran

      If these animals would not fight with us and kill my people, my fellow tribesmen who lived in Azerbaijan and did not change their place of residence from Azerbaijan turned into Iran. So there is no need to carry nonsense here.

      Quote: SarS
      Iran a couple of million already lived (at least a million, as in Moscow)

      30 Azerbaijanis live there. And they live in their lands. And not Persia! As the Persians themselves have already written to you, they are buying an apartment, the land we have. Generally.
      1. Odessa
        Odessa 4 August 2012 01: 56
        +2
        Ataturk,
        Very nice photo!
        1. Ataturk
          Ataturk 4 August 2012 12: 39
          +2
          Quote: Odessa
          Very nice photo!

          Welcome. To friends, the doors of our country are open day and night.

  13. Sars
    Sars 3 August 2012 14: 17
    +4
    In Iran, the political arrangement is not as simple as many people think.
    There are two centers of influence in this country.
    The first is around the great ayatola (mainly confessors)
    The second is around the president (civilians).
    There is no open confrontation. They show each other signs of respect.
    Opposition, of course not.
    President Ahmadinejad is not just a "civilian", he began his political career in the 1979 revolution, was one of the participants in the seizure of the American embassy. After the revolution, he served in the IRGC, in my opinion he was even its commander.
    Whoever considers President Ahmadinejad "a pawn in someone else's game" is completely wrong. He is very influential in all layers of Iranian society, a very ambitious politician.
    1. LAO
      LAO 3 August 2012 16: 36
      +2
      Two bears in one den ... Ayatola is a religious fan preparing for a war with infidels under the auspices of Allah and he doesn't give a shit at all! He believes that Allah will help them to defeat the establishment of Islam throughout the world. The president is a civilian ruler and (in principle) understands that a future war with the United States and Europe cannot be won. He is probably thinking about improving relations, but the religious leadership is against it. Most likely, some of them will "leave" and then Iran will swing towards peace or war. It is desirable for Russia and China not to help Iran. then militant Islam will reach them (Chechnya ...)!
    2. Pimply
      Pimply 3 August 2012 18: 23
      0
      That is, the story when 25 of Ahmadinejad’s comrades-in-arms was arrested for yakshakane with gins is a confrontation hidden, right?

      He did not command the IRGC, he was in the Basijs.
    3. Yarbay
      Yarbay 4 August 2012 01: 47
      +2
      Quote: SarS
      There are two centers of influence in this country.

      Write nonsense * political scientist *!
      Quote: SarS
      The second is around the president (civilians).
      There is no second!
      Ahmedinijat - no one compared to Khamenei!
      civil is a screen * of democracy *
      and there is opposition, but not the one you are thinking about!
      The opposition is represented by other ayatollahs, but it is mostly undercover!
  14. cucun
    cucun 3 August 2012 16: 38
    +2
    East is a delicate matter.... :)
    My opinion, it just takes time to create nuclear weapons. As soon as the brave peacekeepers from the dem. countries are very scared. Actually they are cowards.
    The whole question is, in time or not.
    1. Odessa
      Odessa 4 August 2012 02: 03
      0
      cucun,
      East is a delicate matter.... :)

      To be extremely precise, the East is the subtlest thing, and where it is subtle, it tears. There is not much fun, now in the Middle East negative
  15. pristav
    pristav 3 August 2012 17: 05
    +3
    First will be Syria. Capacitive caricature:

    new video about the war in Syria: http://wpristav.ucoz.ru/news/novosti_o_vojne_v_sirii/2012-08-03-900
    1. Bob
      Bob 3 August 2012 19: 59
      -1
      Regarding Syria ....
      Moscow, helping Syria, helps itself above all, and works for its authority, which it is very afraid of losing. What are we talking about? !!! It's about 100 Russian citizens who pray for help from Russia. The matter has really gone very far, and concerns all of us, the citizens of Russia, who are innocently dying on the Syrian battlefield with the West. With that Zapados, with whom we fought, we are at war and we will be at war. Watch the wars with France, fascist Germany, and finally with the very warring Great Britain, a haven of terrorists of all stripes and at the same time the capital (I must say) of the Olympics - which in principle contradicts the military sentiments against Syria, Iran and the rest of the world ......
      1. scientist cat
        scientist cat 5 August 2012 00: 57
        -1
        Bob,

        Moscow helping Syria helps itself first of all ... It is about 100 citizens of Russia.


        For your information, out of these 100,000, there are only a few hundred military advisers and Tartus personnel, as well as several thousand civilian contract workers. All other citizens are Russian women who converted to Islam and married Arabs, and their children. They are citizens of Russia, but they grew up in an Arab country, in Arab families.
        Are you eager to fight for them with weapons in your hands or can evacuate them to Russia? It is possible that over time they will turn into law-abiding citizens, patriots, but we would like that the Orthodox population of Russia would not ever turn from a majority into a minority.
        Perhaps, in light of the above, your fervor will fade a little.
        1. Pimply
          Pimply 5 August 2012 16: 09
          +1
          The big question is how many staff there are in Tartus. They showed a report in Vesti (which even more "delivers") about the base: 2 personnel, and a ship-workshop. The base in Tartus. There were about 2000 military advisers
    2. Warik
      Warik 4 August 2012 02: 39
      +1
      cool drawing, smiled, but there is not enough small sketch in the form of Russia and China, which crush on the other side))
  16. dojjdik
    dojjdik 3 August 2012 19: 36
    -1
    why no one is interested in the Israeli nuclear program, where did the tiny state come from? may the IAEA commission check the Israeli "centrifuges" (bluff)
    1. Pimply
      Pimply 3 August 2012 19: 59
      0
      Are you aware that the IAEA only checks countries that have signed the relevant treaty?
      1. Yarbay
        Yarbay 3 August 2012 21: 48
        +3
        So why is Israel not signing the relevant documents ??
        1. Nir
          Nir 4 August 2012 08: 14
          +1
          Quote: Yarbay
          So why is Israel not signing the relevant documents ??

          Well, this is their legal right to sign or not, Israel is a sovereign state.
          1. Yarbay
            Yarbay 4 August 2012 13: 32
            +1
            Nir!
            So there is something to hide !!
            And why then is the world community silent !?
            Why aren’t nuclear facilities inspected in Israel ??
            Why is no one forcing Israel to open access to its nuclear facilities?
            Then Iran also has the sovereign right to carry out nuclear projects !!
            1. Pimply
              Pimply 4 August 2012 14: 25
              0
              They are not inspected, because Israel has not signed this treaty. And the same Iran signed, and fundamentally violates its terms. That is why he has no right - he signed an agreement in which he indicated that he would follow certain standards.

              Also, who said that Israel is not being forced? Regularly and diligently. But relatively unsuccessful. At the same time, everyone understands that Israel is saving this club for a rainy day, and will not wave it, besides, it has a democratically elected and reasonably sane government - in any case.
              Iran scares most countries in the region with its rhetoric. And scary extremely, because they know what some of its leaders are capable of.
              1. Yarbay
                Yarbay 5 August 2012 00: 10
                +2
                Pimpy!
                I’m talking about this !!
                So Israel has something to hide!
                Read carefully!!
                So other countries have the right to the club that Israel has!
                Pimply with all due respect to you, you speak through the lips of some politicians in Israel!
                Everyone knows perfectly well what the leaders of Iran are capable of, and besides Khamenei no one’s words have any weight!
                I know and respect their knowledge of religious matters, but I do not accept their policies!
                And Israel has the same sane government as in Iran!
                1. Pimply
                  Pimply 5 August 2012 16: 19
                  0
                  Dear, you see - Israel, with all the whirlpools that are around it, the country is quite stable, with a bunch of powerful internal balances, a democratic country, and not trying to attack someone without a real threat, but simply because someone is I do not like. The likelihood of establishing a dictatorship in it is incredibly low, as in most European countries.

                  In most of the countries you are talking about, there are prerequisites for all of the above problems, including the collapse on the principle of Somalia. You know the topic about a monkey with a grenade: you never know where it will throw? Here it is. To have nuclear weapons, you need to grow to a certain political and civilizational level: just so as not to kill everyone around.

                  You confuse the sanity of the governments of Iran and Israel. In Israel, there are several powerful counterweights - it is a parliamentary republic, there is an electoral system that is not questionable, and a powerful judiciary.

                  Iran, on the other hand, is a fundamentalist religious dictatorship that is completely tied to a group of people, very unstable in its structure - and sharp aggressive aspirations. Khameini is not alone - he has a serious and powerful group of adherents. And the IRGC. Which is beneficial such a situation.

                  I repeat - Iran has signed an agreement - and violates it. Israel did not sign the treaty - accordingly, what is the question?
        2. Pimply
          Pimply 4 August 2012 14: 16
          +1
          A sufficiently large number of countries did not sign them. For example, the same India. Total 43 state.
          1. Yarbay
            Yarbay 5 August 2012 00: 15
            +2
            Quote: Pimply
            A sufficiently large number of countries did not sign them. For example, the same India. Total 43 state.

            So the world community must first of all put pressure on these countries!
            That is, they are not controlled and have hidden plans that threaten the world!
            1. Pimply
              Pimply 5 August 2012 16: 20
              -1
              Explain what you think is the global community?
          2. dojjdik
            dojjdik 5 August 2012 08: 32
            -2
            your Israel cannot live in peace with any of the neighboring states (Lebanon; Syria; Iraq; Egypt) with all of you either fought or are at war; and if it were not for the huge "club" of your Jews from the United States, you would have been liquidated by neighboring states long ago for your greed (oil robbery) and the desire to poke your nose where you should not
            1. Pimply
              Pimply 5 August 2012 16: 23
              0
              You are stupid, sorry. You do not know the story well. You are aggressive. Most of the surrounding Arab countries behave like this. When Egypt agreed to sign a favorable peace treaty - he received money from the USA and Sinai back - Israel signed the treaty, returned everything, and - my Gd - for some reason did not attack Egypt. Same story with Jordan. Thousands of Arabs work in joint ventures with Israel in Egypt and Jordan, and earn their money. Israel perfectly knows how to live in peace - if, with irrational hatred, they are not trying to destroy it. Then he takes out a club. And the Arabs flee to cry that they were offended. Bullies - they are so cowardly. It is worth giving a real rebuff - they are fleeing.
  17. Evgen2509
    Evgen2509 3 August 2012 20: 02
    +2
    If the Iranians do not want to be thrown back decades, into the "Stone Age", and it does not matter how: along the path of Iraq - to be bombed by NATO aviation, like the DPRK, with the economy crushed by sanctions, or through another revolution that could lead to a bloody civilian war, then Ahmadinejad needs to make the necessary, important and very difficult decision - to direct the country's power along a more secular path, because in many ways Ayattola Khamenei adds fuel to the fire, it is he who keeps the Iranian position at such an implacable level even for discussion with Western countries.
    And maybe then Iran will become more likely to blame Greater Persia (with its demographic and economic potential), rather than the radical Islamist "near-monarchy", which sooner or later will all end the same - on the sidelines of history.
  18. Odinplys
    Odinplys 4 August 2012 04: 18
    -2
    Ahmadinejad ... judging by the article ... decided to bargain ... In exchange for the enrichment of uranium and the lifting of sanctions ... freedom of movement in the Strait of Hormuz ... not a bad move ... apparently it will turn out that way ...