How arms sales affect the Middle East (Christian Science Monitor, USA)

The record arms deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia is part of an effort to put pressure on Iran, partly by strengthening alliances with its oil-rich neighbors, who are also worried about Iran's rise.

The Gulf states are increasing their arms purchases from the United States in the face of rising Iran and other regional threats. These agreements emphasize how important, in Washington's opinion, its allies in the Gulf are in deterring Iran.

What transactions are currently in progress?

According to the US General Budget Office, from 2005 to 2009, the US sold the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, to 37 billions of weapons.

The recent US-Saudi deal, which should soon be submitted to Congress for approval, can cost up to 60 billions of dollars.

It includes the Boeing F-84 15 fighter jets, as well as upgrading the 70 fighter jets and three types of helicopters - the Black Hawk 72 helicopter, the Apache 70 and the Little Bird 36 helicopter.

In addition, US officials are discussing an agreement to modernize Saudi fleet worth $ 30 billion.

The United States also expects that next year an agreement will be reached on the sale to the United Arab Emirates of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense missile defense system worth about 7 billions of dollars.

Russia is also a major supplier of weapons to the Middle East. In 2007, Moscow agreed to sell Syria anti-ship cruise missiles P-800. Israel strongly opposed the deal, expressing concern that the missiles could fall into the hands of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah group.

In September, Russia announced that it would make a deal. However, she canceled her 800-million agreement to sell C-300 anti-aircraft systems to Iran, saying the deal would violate UN sanctions. Over the past decade, Tehran has acquired Russian weapons more than 5 billion dollars.

How do arms deals help US interests?

Many argue that the main reason for the US-Saudi deal was concerns about Iran’s growing strength - and suspicions that it is developing nuclear weapons. The United States is increasingly worried about Iran and sees the Gulf states - especially Saudi Arabia - as key partners in deterring an Islamic state.

The deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia is a reminder to the Iranians that if Tehran gets closer to building nuclear weapons, “the answer will be to strengthen regional rivals and enemies so that [Iran ]’s position will be weakened,” says freelance Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Washington Council on Foreign Relations (Council on Foreign Relations).

It can also convince the Saudis not to strive to build their own nuclear weapons.

“Part of the Obama administration’s strategy is,” adds Lippman, “to convince the Saudis that we can solve their security problems without becoming a nuclear state.”

The deal may also lead to the creation of new jobs, and will support at least 75 thousands of workers in the factories of Boeing and United Technologies.

What do Arab states get?

In addition to strengthening the military capabilities of the Gulf states, recent deals cement security relations between the United States and these countries that form the regional bloc, known as the Gulf Cooperation Council.

“It seems to me that everyone already understood that the United States guaranteed a“ defense shield ”for Council states,” said Theodore Karasik, director of research and development of the UAE-based military analytics institute in the Middle East and the Gulf countries. “Ultimately, their safety is guaranteed.”

The sale of modern weapons to Saudi Arabia means that relations with the United States tied to maintenance and training will last at least ten years, linking the two states into interdependent relations, says Anthony Cordesman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Center for Strategic and International Studies) in Washington.

But Dr. Karasik advises not to concentrate all attention solely on the Iranian factor. He says that the Gulf states simply assess their national security needs and develop plans to address these needs "across the spectrum of threats."

“All members of the Gulf Cooperation Council face various state and non-state threats,” says Karasik. “They can range from state threats like Iran to non-state threats like, for example, Houthi (in north Yemen) or Al Qaeda or other terrorist organizations that may appear. This includes, for example, border controls that involve the protection of air, land and sea areas around the country. ”

For example, helicopters ordered by Saudi Arabia will be useful in the fight against the Khuti rebels, who have already clashed with Saudi forces on the border with Yemen. “What they are doing is quite logical,” he says. - This is not a forced waste of money. This is all very seriously thought out. ”

How well have Gulf States used these weapons in the past?

Saudi Arabia is already using the US Patriot missile system and F-15 jet fighters. She proved to be quite adept at managing these weapons systems, says Dr. Cordsman. Although the Saudi kingdom had some weapons problems, “everyone has problems, including the United States,” he says.

Karasik describes Saudi Arabia’s performance as “very good,” although he says that “there may be problems with personnel and sustainable development.”

Has there been a shift in arms purchases?

While recent arms deals with the Gulf states may seem like a major event, analysts say the global arms market is cyclical, and different countries are starting to build up weapons at different times as the situation and threats associated with it change.

Cordsman says that there have been no major shifts in world arms procurement, although the countries of the Persian Gulf are beginning to emerge as important importers because they do not have their own production. At the same time, European countries are reducing their weapons, distorting the market.

Karasik says the recent arms purchases by the Gulf states are part of a long-term strategy. Even after the deals are approved, it will take years to train and deploy the acquired weapons systems. “It’s not like you bought something and immediately got it,” he says.