The Chinese economy showed a significant drop for the first time in a long time

Economic reports from China indicate that it is unlikely that any region of the world will be able to escape the next global crisis. The fact is that the Chinese economy has long become a kind of success indicator, a demonstrator of continuous growth, often setting records. Over the past few years, China’s GDP growth has declined somewhat, but still it has remained about twice as high as the world average.

Data for the first quarter suggests that for the first time in a long time, the Chinese economy has moved to a significant decline. Due to the problems associated with the pandemic, in the first quarter of 2020, China's GDP fell by almost 7%. The exact drop is 6,8%.

Moreover, the largest drop was recorded in such an industry as industrial. The reduction rate in it amounted to 9,6% for three months.

A significant decrease affected the tourism sector, hotel business, transport, as well as the service sector.

Against this background, the day before in news reports from the central channels reported a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The leaders of Russia and China, as it was announced, agreed to continue coordination on the issue of confronting the pandemic. Also during the telephone conversation, it was said that in the first quarter, the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and the PRC increased. What exactly positions of growth in trade turnover can be discussed have not yet been specified. At the same time, the named figures for the volume of trade between the two countries are $ 25,35 billion in the first quarter of this year.

Comments

[mitroha]

And who was the sane expecting another? The stump is clear, if for three months the whole country was engaged in survival, then the production stood, and the people kept consumption to a minimum

[Amateur]

Strange article. The whole world is "in flight", but here "in China". It will also fall in other countries. Or tomorrow there will be an article about the Korean economy, after tomorrow about the German economy, and so on.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Amateur

tomorrow an article will be published about the Korean economy, after tomorrow about the German economy and so on.

Every day, according to the article, changing only the name of the country is fresh and interesting. And most importantly - unexpectedly.

Once the head of one of the TV channels discovered the "secret of the Punchinelle" as to how the series are beneficial to him. I stuffed them into the broadcasting grid - and for a month my head does not hurt, what to turn on the channel.

You can also here - a series of articles "The fall [insert necessary] of the economy due to the consequences of the pandemic"

[Ilya-spb]

Totally agree!

And the purpose of such articles is to sow panic.

The laws of economics are simple. Behind any fall there will be growth.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Ilya-spb

The laws of economics are simple. Behind any fall there will be growth.

This does not work in the only case - if during the recession the third forces have time to buy up and ruin the economy of the country. China is not Bulgaria-Romania or even Ukraine. No one in the world, even the United States, will have enough money to buy up or collapse from the outside.
The analogy with Russia suggests itself. I wish that now they did not complete what we did not have time in the 90s. In order not to break what we managed to save after the 90s. It is hoped that the TOT lesson will do us good.

[Stas157]

Data for the first quarter They say that for the first time in a long time, the Chinese economy has gone down to a significant scale. Due to the problems associated with the pandemic, in the first quarter of 2020, China's GDP fell by almost 7%. The exact drop is 6,8%.

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched. After a year there may not be a fall. Do not worry about China. What can not be said about Russia. Here the fall for the quarter and for the year will be.

[Maas]

If I were you, I would not exaggerate the possibilities of China. This is a colossus with feet of clay, not self-sufficient.
If the crisis drags on, then China may return to the days of its insignificance. In short, everyone will get this year to the fullest.
Probably it will not particularly affect Africa, there is nothing to fall there.

[Lelek]

Quote: Maas

If I were you, I would not exaggerate the possibilities of China. This is a colossus with feet of clay, not self-sufficient.

Oh oh China will still show itself, it’s already clawing out:

Not to mention our DCK, where the Chinese are hostile.

[Qwertyarion]

Quote: Amateur

Strange article. Or tomorrow there will be an article about the Korean economy, after tomorrow about the German one and so on.

Yes ..... it will.

[iouris]

Quote: Amateur

Strange article.

Nothing strange. And the topic is relevant: "the neighbor's (like) cow died." And we have gas in our apartment!

[aszzz888]

Expected and quite natural. There should not have been another situation. I am silent about Russia so far.

[Uncle lee]

Quote: aszzz888

I am silent about Russia so far.

Sorry ! And I wonder how things are with us!

[aszzz888]

Media reports every 4 hours. I can’t add anything except my territorial news. But they most likely do not interest you.

[Deniska999]

So far, only forecasts. And they are different: from 2-3 to 10% of GDP drop on an annualized basis.

[aszzz888]

Yes, such assumptions. And then it will be visible further.

[rotmistr60]

The Chinese economy showed a significant drop for the first time in a long time

So this is not surprising, after several months of strict quarantine. China will recover, but what will happen to the European economy is a big question. At least we have a "safety cushion" for the first time.

[Mountain shooter]

Statement of the obvious. It is necessary to look at the second quarter ... and on the third ... if Europe starts to consume Chinese goods while it is itself "in the clinch" - you will see, and positive values ​​will appear. Tourism will have to be postponed, respectively, the planes will stand on the ground for now ...

[Hto tama]

It is unlikely that the Chinese economy will grow in the near future, there is no one to sell, the world is still sick Yes, and the states began to deploy propaganda against China. Am I wondering when China will begin to actively get rid of state securities, or will it wait until the mattresses rid China of this problem, saying that they don’t owe anything?

[Aleksandr21]

Quote: hto tama

It is unlikely that the Chinese economy will grow in the near future, there is no one to sell, the world is still sick Yes, and the states began to deploy propaganda against China. Am I wondering when China will begin to actively get rid of state securities, or will it wait until the mattresses rid China of this problem, saying that they don’t owe anything?

In general, according to forecasts, already in the second quarter, China will begin to grow, and according to the results of the year, forecasts growth from 1.2-2%. As regards sales, let them fall, but again, China has a much larger service sector than the production sector, and due to this alone, China will be able to expand its economy reorientation to domestic consumption, and about the demand in the world is also a moot point, it will certainly fall, but no one knows how big it will be, maybe everything will not be as critical as the pictures here. Even if 2020 will be lost for the economy, but with a sharp drop, there will be a sharp rise in the years 2021-2022, demand may well recover.

[Odysseus]

The numbers are correct, but there are no conclusions. The Chinese economy has indeed fallen, but the bottom line is that the epidemic ended there. It is clear that there was a decline there in the first quarter, it is also clear that there will be rapid growth now. Moreover, the PRC is a producing country and low oil and gas prices help it a lot.
Now their main problem is precisely in a decrease in demand in Europe and the USA, plus an increase in domestic debts. Much will depend on how quickly their exports recover. Well, they will maximize domestic demand. Will there be economic growth by the end of the year? Will be, but in the limit of 1-2%.
It is more dangerous for the PRC that under the pretext of a coronavirus, a grand redistribution of markets and spheres of influence will now take place. Whether the sales markets can keep the PRC is a big question ..

[Volodin]

Quote: Odyssey

the bottom line is that the epidemic ended there

I propose to call a spade a spade. We were informed on TV that the epidemic was over there. It is impossible to check the numbers. There are simply no international commissions that would confirm the number of cases. I'm afraid that if tomorrow or the day after tomorrow they also inform us, then "the epidemic will also end."
But about the redistribution of markets - I agree completely. The epidemics will now try to write off everything under the "shop".

[Odysseus]

Quote: Volodin

I propose to call a spade a spade. The fact that the epidemic ended there, we were informed on TV. It is impossible to check the numbers

I agree. However, from my point of view, we cannot trust statistics for any country, since in addition to the reality of the epidemic itself, there is the reality of using it for political purposes both locally and globally. In this case, I proceed from the fact that, as it were, the PRC leadership would not manipulate statistics to declare a complete victory over the disease when they have an epidemic in full swing, unless, of course, the idea that it wants to destroy for some reason their state or do not care about their country and people. That is, most likely generally they have no mass epidemic.
By the way, even with us, of course, it is very strange to fight the epidemic, but the authorities still did not agree to hold the May 9 parade. Not because they didn’t want to, but because they couldn’t. Not only for medical reasons, but also for her.
PS I don’t know if anyone paid attention, but most cases of coronavirus in the PRC now are imported cases from Russia. That is, the Chinese return their citizens, they check, they are sick.
The question arises, why were they not checked in Russia? And didn’t they infect people in such a long time?

[Liam]

Quote: Odyssey

However, from my point of view, we cannot trust statistics

Wuhan authorities recounted statistics on coronavirus, the death toll increased by 1290 people. It is reported by RIA "Novosti" with reference to a statement by the government

[Far East]

I will answer like this! nothing is over there (china)! are our prom ,. ships on roadsteads, there is no one to change the boys (crew), everyone "howls" to the house they want! sailors call back among themselves, who is in the roadstead, who is on the shore. called yesterday talking! there is a complete POPA! TV is all a lie!

[rocket757]

Interestingly, in many geyropeyskih capitals realized that they are critically dependent on imports, especially from China.
The question is, they will calm down and forget or worry, and will do it themselves ??? This, in the end, is the expansion, the restoration of some industries, new jobs and other nishtyaki for their own economy, citizens!
If so, then China may break off with some imported products, but for its economy this is a minus.
A lot of interesting things can happen!

[Altona]

Quote: rocket757

The question is, they will calm down and forget or worry, and will do it themselves ??? This, in the end, is the expansion, the restoration of some industries, new jobs and other nishtyaki for their own economy, citizens!

------------------------------
Can you imagine the cost of this product? Consumer goods production has long and firmly remained in Bangladesh and partly roams in Southeast Asia-Vietnam, India and Cambodia, there are still the most cheap workers left there.

[rocket757]

I sho, argued that they would do it at ANY PRICE?
I just came across such an opinion. Now, when the extreme has gone, the Pentagon can also "sew" masks. As soon as they "calm down" they will start counting.
PS ... now, some politicians will earn "points" in their piggy bank, they will declare a lot of different things, the voters will like it! No virus can stop this process!

[Altona]

Quote: rocket757

If so, then China with some imported products may break off

-------------------
If the United States prints out the next "quantitative easing" of the dough and demand recovers, then China will rise almost to its initial indicators.

[rocket757]

Obvious, but will this become probable an obligatory fact ???? We will see it!
There are many opinions and statements, but again, these are political "splashes"!
Whether this will become a "life-giving rain" for the world economy is a big question.
Different experts, different opinions!

[Aleksandr21]

Quote: rocket757

Interestingly, in many geyropeyskih capitals realized that they are critically dependent on imports, especially from China.
The question is, they will calm down and forget or worry, and will do it themselves ??? This, in the end, is the expansion, the restoration of some industries, new jobs and other nishtyaki for their own economy, citizens!
If so, then China may break off with some imported products, but for its economy this is a minus.
A lot of interesting things can happen!

Cheap production has already been transferred to other poorer countries, and regarding production in China, it is not so simple. I can well assume that the production of medicine can be returned to Europe, but here is the rest .... China has a huge population as its main advantage. And this population will consume goods / services in huge quantities, in 10-15 years, even the EU and the USA will no longer be able to provide such a market as China, and what stupid producer wants to lose such a market? + In China, rare earths are mined, which are critically important for electronics, so governments can only dream of returning production to the EU and the USA.

[rocket757]

What is the liberal economy characterized by? Everything is up to the market! Even a great president cannot tell his shale members whether or not to be!
Now many countries, governments, sovereign economies have received such a good Kick! And it is not clear yet, when and how they can get out of this crisis.
So let's see how this will happen.
Not a bathroom, it's just interesting to watch from the side.
From the outside, this is conditional, of course, because the consequences will affect us, it’s just understandable, it will not be a plus.

[Altona]

Quote: rocket757

What is the liberal economy characterized by? Everything is up to the market! Even a great president cannot tell his shale members whether or not to be!

--------------------------------
Golden words, mind you, you yourself said it. Even the "ruler of the world" cannot prohibit VTB and Sberu from bargaining and making money during a pandemic. Even the coronavirus does not interfere with profiting from its own people in Russia.

[rocket757]

Did you expect something else from me ???
I am very surprised! Because I have already stated a hundred times that I draw conclusions only on the facts of the event, and although these facts are different, the general definition will not change - this is the power of the rich and for the rich!

[_Sergei_]

There is no cheap labor, as in China, in Europe. Even if they begin to produce in Europe, then China will crush them with prices. If coronovirus is definitely defeated in China, then they will launch their economy faster than Europe.

[rocket757]

Those. now everything in .... Africa will do? Or else where about where the slave is cheaper.
Obvious and very likely.

[_Sergei_]

Africa will starve, but will not work like the Chinese.

[rocket757]

I won’t speak for all of Africa, but the Angolans, for example, are normal smart guys.
In principle, Africa is an example, an option. For what they choose, the geyropeyts will find it is not at all clear. Do we have to think about that. We need to solve our problems.

[syndicalist]

Quote: Odyssey

Will there be economic growth by the end of the year? Will be, but in the limit of 1-2%.

However, you are an optimist. Although, perhaps, as Russian informants, you meant "negative growth"? But even so, it seems to me an optimistic figure for a drop of only 10 percent. This is for Western Europe. Others, including China, will be much worse off.

[Odysseus]

Quote: syndicalist

Although, perhaps, as Russian informants, you meant "negative growth"?

No, positive.

Quote: syndicalist

However, you are an optimist.

Yes. Our pessimists do not survive

Quote: syndicalist

Others, including China, will be much worse

They had quarantine and the peak of the epidemic in the first quarter. The fall is 6,4%. It is not clear why you think that now that people have come to work, the fall in China will be much more than 10%.
However, at the end of the year we'll see. If you are right, I will admit it with great pleasure.

[Valery Valery]

Early rolls rejoice. And China will overcome this crisis and we will soon come out of it with minimal losses.

[kepmor]

reading you, the feeling is like on political information ... the political enthusiasm does not fade ...

with regards to China, not everything is so rosy ... the more or less tangible growth of their economy will depend on the restoration of world consumption ... and this is hardly expected in the near future ... although they are trying to get out of 2009 domestic demand ... already money to buy a car began to give out ... imposed tax deductibles ... maybe the yuan can be significantly lowered ...

as for our "kamatoznitsa", it is still just creeping to the edge of the abyss, stubbornly resisting the cowardice and stupidity of our authorities ...
in the fall and count the "chickens" ...

[Fedor Sokolov]

It's okay it's a drop in the bucket, the Chinese economy has a huge margin of safety, the PRC industry supplies the whole world with goods, including those that are vital in the modern world.

[Altona]

What has fallen for them, in our country, will generally die from a halt in the economy and offers of "credit and tax holidays and soft loans" instead of real help to people and businesses.

[Courier]

Interest matters little. Now all statistics are garbage. Trends are important.
The developed world, the main markets for Chinese products, will be forced to return production back, as Japan already does.

[UserGun]

Yes, I agree here. After this story with the coronavirus and the idiotic "mnogohodovka" you know who, finally beguiled Ramses, in their own ecstasy, all countries will scatter to their own caves and will be engaged in their production and their consumption. Your shirt is closer to your body. I am afraid that the Russian Federation will have very little place in this picture, with such a leader and the same henchmen. Because to sell fuel oil at horse prices and engage in the REAL economy, FOR OUR CITIZENS, as they say in Odessa, there are 2 big differences. And this means that exactly by 2024 the people and everyone else will be mentally and physically ready for the new Comanche leader))) The old storyteller showed everyone, REALLY, and not in his fairy tales about Portugal, etc. and the like, its "exclusivity".

[Courier]

The modern global world, economically almost like the USSR. There were cooperations, production chains.
And now remember what happened to the Soviet factories after the collapse of the Union. The same will happen with the Chinese, after the end of globalism.
China produces everything, but this is an assembly shop, there are thousands of intermediate goods from Europe, from Germany, or the United States.
And cheap oil does not help, the Union had its own, did not help.
The collapse of demand in the world, the crisis of overproduction in China and the return of entire industries, the same farm, back to developed countries.

[UserGun]

Yes, that's all true. The only thing that more or less helped the Russian Federation to "keep its face" was oil with gas and other minerals. This will not happen now. Step on the old rake for the umpteenth time. It's a shame only that the duped will pay for everything, as always.

[Vadim237]

Non-resource exports of Russia over the past year more than 160 billion, plus the "secret" export of weapons and other 55 billion greens in the structure of GDP, oil and gas industry takes 19%, based on the 2020 budget of 20379 billion rubles, revenues from oil and gas will amount to 2334 billion rubles. Descending from the oil and gas field continues next year, when calculating the budget, 15 bucks per barrel can be laid.

[UserGun]

I'm reading MED data for 2019 and I’m just laughing at people like you, who are near, but wadding to operate with numbers)))

https://economy.gov.ru/material/file/fb20cec4189ade35f8d573ea70f34959/20200121.pdf

"Non-raw non-energy 11-month export of goods 2019 g. decreased to
$ 133,4 billion (-0,5% y / y in nominal terms). Moreover, the negative
supply dynamics in value terms was observed for all key commodity
groups - metals, chemical products, food, engineering,
woodworking."

"Oil and gas exports in 2019 G. decreased by 9,2% in value terms (to 237,8 billion
USD), mainly due to the deteriorating pricing environment in world markets. "

Why are you juggling with numbers without understanding anything in them, I don’t even know ....))) Which of you is deceiving us here, you? or mayor? )))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

PS By the way, for the umpteenth time I ask you: Why does the Ministry of Economic Development operate with digits in BACKS (note not in rubles) that you have been burying for the past eleven years ?! )))

[Vadim237]

I talked about non-oil exports and not oil and gas, but in dollars they think because this is export, if you can count, then multiply by the old ruble to dollar exchange rate and get the amount in rubles. Bucks is still the universal currency of calculation in the international market.

[UserGun]

I hope that you still know the arithmetic operations and it will not be difficult for you to see that the share of oil and gas revenues in exports exceeds non-resource 237.8 \ 133.4 by approximately 1.8 times !!! Charles. But the most interesting thing is that both oil and gas revenues will fall and non-oil ones after them, and what will you do? To tear taxes in three skins and with already impoverished citizens ?!

[Vadim237]

Why is it that suddenly the profit from my plain bearings that I export to Europe and Asia will fall - in the wake of the fall in oil prices? The volume of the same value has not changed. With all other non-primary products the same. True, in the production of medical equipment this year there will be a 30-fold increase similar to medical protection and hygiene products.

[UserGun]

Why is it that suddenly the profit from my plain bearings that I export to Europe and Asia will fall - in the wake of the fall in oil prices?

Yes, you are just Rothschild homegrown))) First, you do not mean everything))) And indirectly, at least for 2019, this is indicated by a small, but minus, according to the report of the Ministry of Economic Development:

Quote: UserGun

(-0,5% g / g in nominal terms) Moreover, the negative
supply dynamics in value terms was observed for all key commodity
groups - metals, chemical products, food, engineering,
woodworking.

in 2020 and probably in 2021 will already be minisack and these are not even my words, but of the same RF Ministry of Economic Development.

Quote: Vadim237

True, in the production of medical equipment this year there will be a 30-fold increase similar to medical protection and hygiene products.

Yeah! And all for export! Yes Yes Yes!!! Himself is not funny ?! )))

[Vadim237]

Believe me, after saturating the country, all of the above will be exported, because in the world for at least another year all this will be in great demand.

[UserGun]

Well, well))) The flag in your hands and a drum on your neck)))

[_Sergei_]

Take BMW for example. China produces all components, and in Germany and around the world only assembly.

[Vadim237]

Original spare parts are produced in Germany.

[_Sergei_]

I have a friend, they studied together at a college, worked on assembly in Germany. Complained that the poor quality components that came from China. Since 2014, they have been supplying automotive body assembly to Germany.

[Altona]

Quote: Courier

And now remember what happened to the Soviet factories after the collapse of the Union. The same will happen with the Chinese, after the end of globalism.

---------------------------
In China, will Gorbachev or Yeltsin come to power, and with the help of Gaidaro-Chubais will he break down his industry? Something I doubt. Waste plants are easily stopped by tax and environmental policies. Outdated production in a planned manner is easily and painlessly dismantled.

[_Sergei_]

The first thing that worked in China is the Honda conveyor. If Japan or any other country begins to transfer its production, then China will begin to produce these products under its own brands.

[Altona]

Quote: _Sergey_

The first thing that worked in China is the Honda conveyor. If Japan or any other country begins to transfer its production, then China will begin to produce these products under its own brands.

-----------------------
Lifan is a complete Honda clone.

[Vasily Ponomarev]

Quote: hto tama

It is unlikely that the Chinese economy will grow in the near future, there is no one to sell, the world is still sick Yes, and the states began to deploy propaganda against China. Am I wondering when China will begin to actively get rid of state securities, or will it wait until the mattresses rid China of this problem, saying that they don’t owe anything?

who about what, and Russian about the states and the dollar

[askort154]

Due to the problems associated with the pandemic, in the first quarter of 2020, China's GDP fell by almost 7%. The exact drop is 6,8%.

To whom, to whom, and to China, the economic cataclysm is not threatened. The world’s largest flywheel, one and a half billion consumers of the domestic market, is no longer able to brake.

[bubalik]

,,, if China could not cope.
Last week, Chinese authorities lifted all quarantine restrictions in Wuhan. Since then, according to official figures, almost all large enterprises of the city have resumed their work. But small and medium-sized businesses were not able to get out of quarantine hibernation: everyone who was not connected with industrial giants was left without state support.
,,, in the shopping district of Wuhan it is restless: the other day the local police even had to disperse the demonstrators - and this is less than a week after the removal of total quarantine in the city. Private sellers protest, which, in fact, turned out to be left to the mercy of the state.
,,, only about a third of representatives of small and medium-sized businesses were able to resume work after a 76-day quarantine.

[den3080]

What a long noodle they have (pictured).

[Grading]

Do not worry about China. China's economy is waiting for recovery. China's economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter of 2020, ahead of the United States and the eurozone, according to commentary economist Julius Baer Sophie Altermatt.
Production opens again, there is a rapid recovery in both supply and demand.
We must not forget about gifts in the form of cheap oil and gas!

[den3080]

Quote: Grading

Do not worry about China. China's economy is waiting for recovery. China's economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter of 2020, ahead of the United States and the eurozone, according to commentary economist Julius Baer Sophie Altermatt.
Production opens again, there is a rapid recovery in both supply and demand.
We must not forget about gifts in the form of cheap oil and gas!

1. China has a huge population, and, accordingly, the largest domestic market in the world.
The collective West, even “holding hands”, is much smaller (USA + EU + Canada + Australia + New Zealand) in China by this indicator.
This means that China will cope. And his geopolitical rivals can screw up.
2. Who should bet on the West as an alternative to China as a “global factory”?
To myself? Hardly. Traditionally, high incomes, high social standards, high taxes simply will NOT allow this to be done.
To India? Will not work. Although India is comparable with China in terms of population, low labor discipline, enormous corruption and low state capabilities to effectively manage this mob divided into castes and living its own, often completely “separate” life from the state, will not allow this.

So to “fight” with China or “isolate” it is a shot in the foot, or even in the temple, from the United States and its vassals.

[Grading]

Quote: den3080

Quote: Grading

Do not worry about China. China's economy is waiting for recovery. China's economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter of 2020, ahead of the United States and the eurozone, according to commentary economist Julius Baer Sophie Altermatt.
Production opens again, there is a rapid recovery in both supply and demand.
We must not forget about gifts in the form of cheap oil and gas!

1. China has a huge population, and, accordingly, the largest domestic market in the world.
The collective West, even “holding hands”, is much smaller (USA + EU + Canada + Australia + New Zealand) in China by this indicator.
This means that China will cope. And his geopolitical rivals can screw up.
2. Who should bet on the West as an alternative to China as a “global factory”?
To myself? Hardly. Traditionally, high incomes, high social standards, high taxes simply will NOT allow this to be done.
To India? Will not work. Although India is comparable with China in terms of population, low labor discipline, enormous corruption and low state capabilities to effectively manage this mob divided into castes and living its own, often completely “separate” life from the state, will not allow this.

So to “fight” with China or “isolate” it is a shot in the foot, or even in the temple, from the United States and its vassals.

Do not thin out for China and the United States. The USA is the main investor in China, as well as the main market for China.

[sanik2020]

Moreover, the largest drop was recorded in such an industry as industrial. The reduction rate in it amounted to 9,6% for three months.

All the same, everyone and almost everything is bought from China, now Europe and others are gradually softening quarantine and starting up the industry, which means they will ensure the rise of Chinese industry with their purchases.

[Operator]

The data for the first quarter (when quarantine measures were applied) are not interesting. The annual total of China, which will demonstrate the effectiveness of quarantine measures, is significant.

[NF68]

The Chinese people are hardworking and have not yet been spoiled by all kinds of democracies. As soon as the real opportunity arises to unfold in full, the Chinese will do it quickly.