Military Review

Barrel fall: now expect OPEC deal +++?

41
Barrel fall: now expect OPEC deal +++?

Already that day in a row, after a slight increase in oil prices following the new OPEC + deal, the price of “black gold” continues to fall. On Wednesday evening April 15, a barrel of the Brent brand sank below $ 27,5.


At 8:30 Moscow time on April 16, the price was slightly adjusted, but in the end it rose only to $ 27,86 per barrel. At the same time, Urals brand oil again “falls” below $ 15 per barrel.

It turns out that all the agreements OPEC + or OPEC ++ that were reached between the largest oil producing countries in the world just a few days ago do not yet lead to planned results. And the planned result against the background of agreements to reduce production volumes was the price adjustment not at the same level that manifested itself before the deal. Well this oil is necessary ...



Based on today's oil prices, a simple conclusion can be made: the demand for oil in the world market is at least not growing. This means that the volumes mined may again turn out to be such that their lion's share will be used for packing storage facilities. If this is so, then after a short time they can again announce the near deadlines for overflowing storage facilities and, as a result, the danger of falling oil prices almost to zero. What does this mean? Again, sit down at the "virtual" negotiating table and again discuss the volume of reduction? Who else to attract by bringing the deal to OPEC +++?

But is it now profitable for large players to agree on something? Judging by the information that comes with the market, no. Thus, the reputable publication of the Financial Times reported "Persian Gulf monarchy funds rich in cash have embarked on a real asset hunt, while they are extremely cheap." And for obvious reasons, such funds now benefit from an extreme reduction in oil prices in order to acquire assets at bargain prices that in a few months can give explosive growth and excess profits.
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  1. Irokez
    Irokez April 16 2020 09: 03 New
    +5
    In a crisis, how all partners will behave and prices are very difficult to predict and any agreements will not work particularly well.
    But the capitalists have such a principle "Prices have fallen - it means that the products must be destroyed, so as not to collapse to the end and keep them", but today it is clear that someone does not behave according to capitalism and turns his own.
    Well, an oversupply and low demand are clearly visible, we must survive this moment.
    1. Insurgent
      Insurgent April 16 2020 09: 06 New
      +7
      The Financial Times reported "the cash-rich foundations of the Gulf monarchies are on a veritable hunt for assets while they are extremely cheap."

      Who else to attract by bringing the deal to OPEC +++?


      If we proceed from efficiency in reducing oil exports from the SA, then Yemenite Hussites ...
  2. Snail N9
    Snail N9 April 16 2020 09: 03 New
    +9
    Here is some more interesting information:
    Saudi Arabia continues to increase dumping in the oil markets of Europe and Asia, squeezing out Russian suppliers.

    In addition to record discounts reaching $ 10–11 at the Brent price, the kingdom’s state-owned oil company offers customers unprecedented deferral of payments.

    According to Reuters, citing industry sources, Asian and European refineries received an offer from the Saudis for 90 days to delay payment of supplies.

    Deferred payments will be processed through Saudi banks. Saudi Aramco “asks us to amend the existing agreement by including a bill of exchange, which in principle will give you the opportunity to pay through the bank within 90 days,” a representative of an Asian oil refining company told Reuters.

    Despite the OPEC + deal on a record-breaking reduction in oil production and the almost unconditional surrender of Russia, which agreed to remove twice as much oil from the market as Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is in no hurry to end the “price war”.

    On Monday, Saudi Aramco published a price list for shipping prices for May, while maintaining discounts on deliveries to North-West Europe and increasing them for the Mediterranean and Asia.

    In the key market for Saudis, the Asian market, the Arab Super Light brand will fall in price by $ 5,5 and for the first time in history will be sold at a discount of $ 3,65 to the price of the Oman / Dubai benchmark.

    Arab Extra Light will drop in price by $ 4,3, Arab Light by $ 4,2, and Arab Medium and Arab Heavy will become cheaper by $ 3,35 and $ 2,95, respectively.

    Prices for South European countries will drop sharply. The Arab Extra Light discount will almost double - from 5,8 to 10,3 dollars against the Brent price.

    Recall that this is not about futures prices, which hold about $ 30, but spot prices, which are fixed by the Dated Brent marker. Last week, its average price was $ 22,88. Thus, ultralight Saudi oil will be able to flow into the Mediterranean at $ 10,58 per barrel.

    Discounts on Arab Light will increase from 8,6 to 10,3 dollars per barrel (which also gives a price of 10,58 dollars per barrel), for heavy grades - up to 11,4 dollars.

    For Northwest Europe, the $ 10,25 discount on Dated Brent on Arab Light supplies will remain in place, giving an actual price of $ 10,63. The price of Arab Extra Light will drop 80 cents to minus $ 8,9 against Brent.


    The only market where Saudi Aramco agreed to end the price war was the American one. For the United States, Saudi oil will rise in price across the entire range of grades - by 2,5-4,2 dollars per barrel.

    https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/birzhevyye-tovary/saudovskaya-araviya-predlozhila-evrope-i-azii-tri-mesyaca-ne-platit-za-neft-1029093707
    1. musketon64
      musketon64 April 16 2020 09: 17 New
      -2
      Here's another opinion: Why Saudi oil is not for sale.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3z1vUwNLa4
    2. musketon64
      musketon64 April 16 2020 11: 31 New
      0
      Particularly amused:
      "The only market where Saudi Aramco agreed to end the price war was the American one. For the United States, Saudi oil will rise in price across the entire range of grades - by $ 2,5-4,2 per barrel."))))))
      Saudi bastards, so be it, graciously agreed not to dump in the US market. Ah ha.
      Or did they get a magic slap on the head from American "friends" in the form of a warning about an increase in oil duties?
  3. apro
    apro April 16 2020 09: 03 New
    -1
    That fell again .. yes as much as possible ... probably God blinked ...
  4. vvvjak
    vvvjak April 16 2020 09: 04 New
    +7
    China is buying up assets, Gulf monarchies too. And what about Russia? At least you can, under the guise, buy out the assets of your own companies.
    1. den3080
      den3080 April 16 2020 09: 55 New
      +3
      Quote: vvvjak
      China is buying up assets, Gulf monarchies too. And what about Russia? At least you can, under the guise, buy out the assets of your own companies.

      Well, why redeem, all the more “under the guise”? to enrich the rich even more at the expense of the state (at the expense of state employees, pensioners, children)? once again?
      easier to nationalize.
      1. your1970
        your1970 April 16 2020 10: 22 New
        -5
        Quote: den3080
        easier to nationalize

        What is easier? If, as in 1917, then this industry will immediately decline, which happened in real 1918. And if you buy back, you need a lot of money ...
        1. your1970
          your1970 April 16 2020 13: 17 New
          -2
          Minus
          The fact of the collapse of industry from nationalization in 1918 is historical fact accomplished 100 years ago ...
          To think about what is now, it will be different, is your right ... but it is justified by nothing ...
          1. ancient
            ancient April 16 2020 14: 02 New
            +1
            Quote: your1970
            The fact of the collapse of industry from nationalization in 1918 is a historical fact,

            Not a minus - historical fact drinks
            But for this ..... Do you think that "they" have little money or nowhere to take it (withdraw it)? wassat wassat
            Quote: your1970
            And if you buy back, then you need a lot of money ...
      2. Runoway
        Runoway April 16 2020 10: 26 New
        -2
        That's right. What’s the matter in the Russian Federation about the price per barrel ???
        I will play in Wang
        "
        tomorrow the price of a barrel of $ 100 bucks will leave just 60 rubles, but the price of gasoline (and accordingly everything else) will certainly rise

        This super profit will be oil at the price of 2010 and cheap labor in the domestic market
        1. Piramidon
          Piramidon April 16 2020 10: 42 New
          +1
          Quote: Runoway
          I will play in Wang


          laughing
      3. ancient
        ancient April 16 2020 14: 00 New
        +2
        Quote: den3080
        easier to nationalize.

        Those. deprive yourself of .. "profit"? belay
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. tatra
    tatra April 16 2020 09: 11 New
    +6
    Firstly, the world economy has risen, and secondly, people in countries around the world now use very little personal transport. Oil prices will begin to rise only at the end of this epic with the coronavirus.
  7. APASUS
    APASUS April 16 2020 09: 27 New
    +4
    During the crisis, no OPEC ++++ deals will act, pushing the elbows of competitors, the norm for capitalism!
  8. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin April 16 2020 09: 28 New
    +4
    This agreement will not be fully implemented. It is for the fright of stock market players. Nevermind.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek April 16 2020 12: 08 New
      +1
      Quote: Gennady Fomkin
      This agreement will not be fully implemented.

      hi
      It is no longer being implemented by the Saudis, who continue to dump in the markets of China and Europe, reducing the prices of their oil to an average of $ 18 per barrel. We have nowhere to store the oil we have produced, and we cannot shut down wells and sell at dumping prices. Here's a parsley. What is there with the oil industry of America - does not interest, will bend - to hell with them, survive - again the same root with them. Now only the countries that buy oil are the winners, but they too are under the preocles' sword because of COVID 19. This virus has once again shown the viciousness of the "oil and gas needle".
  9. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin April 16 2020 09: 29 New
    +1
    There are 2,5 thousand wells in Chechnya together producing 200 tons of oil per day. And on Vankor, one well produces 500 tons / day. And they all worked to the utmost. And now you can simply limit their work. Oil is not going anywhere, we’ll get it later, and sell it at higher prices ..... laughing
    1. Roman123567
      Roman123567 April 16 2020 12: 08 New
      -2
      In the meantime, we fall into suspended animation ..))
  10. Gennady Fomkin
    Gennady Fomkin April 16 2020 09: 37 New
    +1
    It turns out that all this oil fuss is so curious. Especially when you rummage around in primary sources. I read here "The Conclusion ..." (The 9th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting concludes) on the OPEC official website. There are such funny details. I especially liked the very last and most inconspicuous item, item 6.

    Well, as they say, "they decided to listen" and at number 6:

    "Meet on 10 June 2020 via webinar, to determine further actions, as needed to balance the market."

    From which a couple of funny conclusions directly follow.

    1) The high contracting parties are so confident in the seriousness of their intentions that they see in advance the need ... in the middle of the very first (and, moreover, the shortest) period to talk, and not to reconsider these quotas. On the Internet, in such cases, they say "a couple of rzhu". Well, you already know that the reduction is divided into three periods (the period of the most severe reduction, May-June 2020, then July-December 2020, then January 2021-April 2022). The bottom line is: OPEC + in early April agreed not to introduce any quotas in April, to introduce strict quotas in May, and in June to discuss whether to replay it.
  11. da Vinci
    da Vinci April 16 2020 09: 38 New
    0
    Thus, the authoritative edition of the Financial Times reported "the cash-rich foundations of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf have embarked on the path of a real hunt for assets while they are extremely cheap." Wait a second: the United States and the European Union constantly declare that the oil collapse was staged by Russia and China in order to buy up all the assets in the world. So who benefits from the oil crisis in the first place?
  12. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh April 16 2020 09: 59 New
    +3
    To fulfill the agreement with OPEC, Russia will have to mothball
    approximately 12 thousand wells. Of the 150 thousand active.
    If canned, then unprofitable. But these wells return to production
    it will be impossible - oil is squeezed out there by pumping water or steam.
    Therefore, it is not known whether Russia will actually comply with the demand of Saudi Arabia.
    1. Altona
      Altona April 16 2020 10: 23 New
      +4
      Quote: voyaka uh
      will have to preserve
      approximately 12 thousand wells.

      ---------------------
      Moreover, Lyosh, "shutting in a well" is a whole range of costly measures. Do they need it?
    2. NKT
      NKT April 16 2020 19: 05 New
      0
      It is not necessary to preserve, you can reduce depression and continue production, you can stop the well and transfer it to the monitoring fund for a while.
  13. sanik2020
    sanik2020 April 16 2020 10: 00 New
    -1
    It turns out that all the agreements OPEC + or OPEC ++ that were reached between the largest oil producing countries in the world just a few days ago, so far do not lead to planned results.

    So it will be ad infinitum, OPEC +++++++++++++++++++++.
    Like spiders in a bank, until one is left, a monopolist.
  14. Ros 56
    Ros 56 April 16 2020 10: 19 New
    0
    It is advisable for our refiners themselves to stock up on oil cheaply, who knows what will happen tomorrow against the backdrop of this crown.
  15. Vovan
    Vovan April 16 2020 10: 21 New
    -4
    At the same time, Urals brand oil again “falls” below $ 15 per barrel.

    Another verbiage - less than 24 did not sag. And where do you get these paper scrappers?
    1. ancient
      ancient April 16 2020 14: 09 New
      +3
      Quote: Vovan
      And where do you get these paper scrappers?

      So it seems like ... "TASS .. is authorized to declare" wink :
      MOSCOW, April 15. / TASS /. On April 14, the price of Urals in North-Western Europe decreased by $ 9 compared to April 3,59, so the price was $ 16,71 per barrel, despite the conclusion of the OPEC + deal. The discount on Russian oil remained the same - $ 3,7 per barrel, Argus agency reported.
      Or is it dogma for you - Sheinin, Solovyov and Skobeeva? wink(I don’t take Petukhov into account ... wassat )
  16. Altona
    Altona April 16 2020 10: 22 New
    0
    It seems like we agreed to cut something there from May. And as I wrote yesterday, "no one will cut anything there." There are "proud boys" on both sides.
  17. Fishery
    Fishery April 16 2020 10: 32 New
    0
    it is difficult to calculate all the consequences - promise 15 million unemployed and 000tr losses
  18. Linxs
    Linxs April 16 2020 10: 50 New
    +2
    Quote: Vovan
    Another verbiage - less than 24 did not sag. And where do you get these paper scrappers?


    I will answer for the author.
    You would check the information before writing.
    And even more so before you blame and insult someone.

    02.04.2020/16.55/XNUMX, the price of the Urals oil brand fell to $ XNUMX per barrel.

    https://oilprice.com/freewidgets/get_oilprices_chart/67


    So say that below 24 did not fall?
    And who is the scammer and verbiage now?
    1. Linxs
      Linxs April 16 2020 11: 14 New
      +1
      Urals again "falls" below $ 15 per barrel.


      Another verbiage - less than 24 did not sag. And where do you get these paper scrappers?

      And here is a graph that clearly shows that Urals had a price below $ 24 for a full 18 days. Amazing right?



      And who after this verbiage Vovan ?
      1. Altona
        Altona April 16 2020 13: 16 New
        0
        Quote: LinxS
        And here is a graph that clearly shows that Urals had a price below $ 24 for a full 18 days. Amazing right?

        -----------------------
        This is just an abstract graph at a coefficient of 0,89 to the Brent brand, the final price of oil is calculated with the condition of delivery and discount for the buyer.
      2. ancient
        ancient April 16 2020 14: 12 New
        +3
        Quote: LinxS
        And who after this verbiage Vovan?


        Leave Vovan behind ......... "man .... at work" bully
  19. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 April 16 2020 11: 05 New
    0
    now expect an OPEC deal +++?
    You can negotiate at least hundreds of times, but if the objective situation (economic decline due to a pandemic, large oil reserves, etc.) does not contribute to higher prices, then they will not rise.
  20. The comment was deleted.
  21. Roman123567
    Roman123567 April 16 2020 12: 04 New
    0
    Just a couple of months ago I wrote - the sooner oil consolidates at $ 10, the sooner the authorities run out of money for the police and the guard, the sooner people will take up the forks ..
    So everything that is happening at the moment is only positive for a state like Russia .. Otherwise, there will be no end to this lawlessness for at least a dozen more years ..

    PS .. pleasantly pleased that in the last days such thoughts began to meet more and more .. even here ..
  22. The comment was deleted.
  23. alone
    alone April 16 2020 13: 34 New
    0
    A trade war is the result of an overestimation of their capabilities by the authorities ... It’s good to be steep, but it doesn’t always help .. It’s hard to resist this war when the basis of the economy is thoroughly based on oil, which also has a much higher production cost than the enemy ... One thing is not clear, is it really that those in power did not know?
  24. 123456789
    123456789 April 16 2020 15: 52 New
    0
    Quote: Roman123567
    the sooner oil consolidates at $ 10, the sooner the authorities run out of money for the police and the guard

    The ruble is tied to oil by the formula: Ruble = 1 / (0,00024 * Oil + 0,00281), so that everyone will have enough rubles laughing
    1. 123456789
      123456789 April 16 2020 15: 59 New
      0
      Barrel Drop:

      Spring oil aggravation
  25. Vovan
    Vovan April 16 2020 16: 52 New
    -2
    Quote: ancient
    Quote: Vovan
    And where do you get these paper scrappers?

    So it seems like ... "TASS .. is authorized to declare" wink :
    MOSCOW, April 15. / TASS /. On April 14, the price of Urals in North-Western Europe decreased by $ 9 compared to April 3,59, so the price was $ 16,71 per barrel, despite the conclusion of the OPEC + deal. The discount on Russian oil remained the same - $ 3,7 per barrel, Argus agency reported.
    Or is it dogma for you - Sheinin, Solovyov and Skobeeva? wink(I don’t take Petukhov into account ... wassat )

    Is it that ARGUS that screwed up once, giving out its Wishlist for reality? We are looking for and watching real digital numbers on trading floors, and you will be happy!